Towards a road map for hunger reduction

Charles Riemenschneider

Director, Liaison Office for North AmericaFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

(FAO)

Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empower women4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for development

842 million are undernourished

Millions

Point estimates prepared in 2003

Business as usual

On track

Millions

900

800

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

10001000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Undernourished Peoplein Developing Countries

815 million

Point estimates made in 2003

Number of undernourished people in the developing world: observed and projected ranges compared with the World food Summit target.

Our knowledge and understanding of hunger reduction imply 7 key lessons

Lesson 1: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for hunger reduction

1990-2002 Average GDP growth rate p.c. (>3.5%)High

ChinaIndiaIndonesia

PeruGhanaVietnam

Low High JamaicaVenezuelaZambia

ChadNigerSyria

Change inundernourishment (>7%)

LowSource: FAO

Lesson 2: Hunger reduction is fundamental for development and poverty reduction

Poverty and undernourishment, 1995-2000

Poverty and undernourishment: trends

% of the population undernourished

<5 5-19 20-34 ≥35

% of the population living % of the population living

with< 1 US$/daywith< 1 US$/day

Source: FAO

Lesson 3: Investment in agricultural and rural development is crucial for increased availability and access to food and for enhancing income earning opportunities

Capital stock per agricultural worker 000’s (constant 1995 US$)

% of populationundernourished 2000-02

Capital stock in agriculture

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

>= 35

20 - 34

5 - 19

2.5 - 4

<2.5

1996-2001

1976-80

Trends in undernourishment and GDP, 1990-1992 to 1995-97 and 1995-97 to 1999-2001 Countries where the number of undernourished people:

Average annual growth in agricultural GDP (%)

Decreased in both sub-periods

Increased then decreased

Decreased then increased

Increased in both sub-periods

0 1 2 3

Countries where the number of undernourished people:

Average annual growth in agricultural GDP (%)

Decreased in both sub-periods

Increased then decreased

Decreased then increased

Increased in both sub-periods

0 1 2 3

Source: FAO

Lesson 4: Technology development can improve food supplies but not necessarily access to food

World rice production and price (constant US$2002), 1961-2003

Metric tonnes

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Production

Price

Source: FAO/IRRI

Lesson 5: The state could play an important role in the provision of public goods and safety nets, and through sound macroeconomic management

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

>= 35

20 - 34

5 - 19

2.5 - 4

<2.5

1996-98

1990-92

Expenditure for agriculture% of population undernourished

Agricultural orientation index

average

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

35

34

19

5 - 4

<2.5

>=

20 -

5 -

2.

1999-2001

1990-92

ce to agriculture icultural worker)

External assistance to agriculture% of population undernourished

Total external assistan(constant 1995 US$ per agr

Lesson 6: Trade openness and integration can lead to important gains in hunger and poverty reduction

Integration in agricultural trade and undernourishment

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0

> = 3 5

2 0 - 3 4

5 - 1 9

2 . 5 - 4

< 2 . 5

Agricultural imports and exports as a share of agricultural GDP (%)

% of population undernourished

1996-2000

Lesson 7: Peace and stability are sine qua nonconditions for growth and hunger reduction

Hunger hotspots in 2004Major armed conflict / human insecurity (latest)

From lessons learned to a road map for

hunger reduction: the twin-track approach

Availability Access Stability Utilization

Track 1: improving long-run sustainability of food

Track 2: addressing immediate food requirements

Cross-cutting conditions: creating an enabling environment for food security

Track 1: Rural development and productivity enhancement

Availability Access Stability UtilizationImproving productivity and production capacity, esp. of small-scale farmers

Investing in rural markets and infrastructure

Enhancing urban food supplies

Improving the functioning of input and output markets

Promoting income-earning opportunities

Enhancing access to assets

Facilitating the creation of rural non-farm enterprises

Improving the functioning of rural financial systems and labour markets

Improving transition and sequencing of emergency rehabilitation-development efforts

Facilitating diversification

Reducing production variability (irrigation, water harvesting, pest control, etc.)

Monitoring production and consumption short falls

Improving access to credit and saving services

Food handling and storage infrastructure

Food safety regulations and institutions

Safe drinking water and sanitation

Improving productivity and production capacity, esp. of small-scale farmers

Improving transition and sequencing of emergency rehabilitation-development efforts

Facilitating the creation of rural non-farm enterprises

Safe drinking water and sanitation

Track 2: Direct and immediate access to food

Availability Access Stability UtilizationFood aid

Market information

Transport and communication

School meals

Food for work programmes

Cash transfers

Community and extended family structures

Emergency food relief

Safety nets

Nutrition intervention

Food aid Nutrition intervention and education programmes

Food for work programmes Safety nets

Cross-cutting conditions

Growth

Trade

Macroeconomic stability

Governance institutions

Secure access to assets

Market institutions

The policy agenda

• Bring hunger to the forefront of poverty reduction

• Address immediate hunger in the context of long-term food security and development

• Develop flexible support for the resilience of food and agricultural systems in crisis situations

• Place anti-hunger policy in the context of the macro-economic environment

• Good governance and institutions that are participatory are fundamental to fighting hunger

MDG Hunger Task Force Recommendations

1. Move from political commitment to action2. Reform policies and create an enabling environment3. Increase agricultural productivity of food-insecure

farmers4. Improve nutrition for the chronically hungry and

vulnerable5. Reduce vulnerability of acutely hungry with productive

safety nets6. Increase incomes and make markets work for the poor7. Restore and conserve natural resources essential for

food security