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Assessing the Potential Risk of Assessing the Potential Risk of Emerald Ash Borer Emerald Ash Borer
Establishment and Spread using Establishment and Spread using GISGIS
Michael P. Strager
Jacquelyn M. Strager
William D. Ayersman
West Virginia University
OverviewOverview
• Background on EAB in North America
• Mapping risk factors
• Modeling probability of spread
• Desired outcomes
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB)Emerald Ash Borer (EAB)
• Native to Asia
• First detected in Detroit, Michigan (2002)
• Highly destructive to native ash species
Ash species in North America Ash species in North America
• Importance in the ecosystem
• Urban and developed areas– 25 million+ trees affected to date – High removal and replacement
costs in the billions $$– Loss of trees leads to reduced
property values
Ash Tree and EAB populationsAsh Tree and EAB populations
Cooperative EAB projectCooperative EAB project
APHISJan 2009
Project: Project: EAB in the mid-Atlantic regionEAB in the mid-Atlantic region
• EAB is not yet fully established in the study region
• Opportunity to focus monitoring and outreach
Quarantined Counties
Mapping risk factorsMapping risk factors
• Focused on mapping anthropogenic factors related to introduction/spread of EAB:– Movement of trees (nursery stock)– Movement of wood and wood products
Risk factors: Hardwood firewoodRisk factors: Hardwood firewood
• Parks and picnic areas
• Public and private campgrounds
• Vacation homes
• Retail sales of firewood
EAB infested firewood, Troy Kimoto, CFIA
Mapping firewood usageMapping firewood usage
• Campgrounds
Risk factors: SawmillsRisk factors: Sawmills
• Timber industry, particularly sawmills
• Wood haulers
WV sawmill, Appalachian Hardwood Center photo
Mapping sawmillsMapping sawmills
Risk factors: NurseriesRisk factors: Nurseries
• Ash species are valuable nursery crop
• Estimated 2 million ash trees / year
• Spread to Maryland was through nursery stock
WV Division of Forestry tree nursery
Mapping nurseriesMapping nurseries
• Nurseries
• Home and garden suppliers
Other factorsOther factors
• Population centers
• New home construction
• Interstate commerce
• Shipping
Data refinementsData refinements
• Campgrounds– Size, type of facility– Origin of visitors
• Nurseries, sawmills– Size of facility– Materials handled– Source of materials
Maximum entropy approachMaximum entropy approach
• A Bayesian technique• Useful for making predictions from incomplete
information – presence only• Robust to colinearity between explanatory
variables• Stable distribution with limited training data• Evaluates relative variable importance
Desired outcomesDesired outcomes
• Target monitoring
• Public outreach and education
Benefits / technology transferBenefits / technology transfer
This project will assist federal and state agencies by
• Mapping and modeling locations with high potential for insect introductions through the movements of wood and wood-based materials.
• Using a GIS-based approach, a risk prioritization framework is being developed to assess and rank various mapped risk factors for EAB introduction and spread.
• Data will be useful for other pests