Asia’s Quest for World Leadership

Talk given by Rodolfo C. Severino,Head, ASEAN Studies Centre,

Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,at the 7th Asia Economic Forum,

Phnom Penh, 31 July 2011

What is Asia that is Growing Fast?

• Asia here means East Asia: ASEAN+3+India• Region’s economies growing fast, except that

of Japan, which is only developed country in it• They are expected to grow rapidly, even if

slightly more slowly, in next decade

Fast-growing EconomiesEconomy

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China 10.3 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5

Hong Kong 6.8 5.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3

India 10.4 8.2 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1

Indonesia 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.0

Korea 6.1* 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.1

Malaysia 7.2 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0

Singapore 14.5 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0

Taiwan 10.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9

Thailand 7.8* 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0

Vietnam 6.8 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5

Yet, Few East Asians Head Major International Bodies

• Ban Ki Moon – product mainly of geographical rotation

• 26 others, including IMF, and except for one Australian and one NZ, are either European, African, Latin American, or from US

• Only 3 East Asians: Yukiya Amano of Japan (IAEA), Margaret Chan of HK (WHO), and Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand (UNCTAD)

• Starting 1 Jan 2012, another Japanese (Koji Sekimizu) will be heading IMO

High Growth not Automatically Equal to International Leadership

• Reasons:– Rise of Asia fairly recent phenomenon– Different international bodies have different ways

of choosing leaders– Rivalries among East Asians– IMF as example (Christine Lagarde), despite

breakdown of “gentleman’s agreement”; no East Asian in running

Speaking of IMFCountry Quotas

(millions of SDRs)

Percent of Total Quota

Votes Percent of Total Vote

Australia 3,236.4 1.36 33,104 1.32Belgium 4,605.2 1.94 46,792 1.86Brazil 4,250.5 1.79 43,245 1.72Canada 6,369.2 2.68 64,432 2.56China 9,525.9 4.01 95,999 3.82France 10,738 4.52 108,125 4.30Germany 14,565.5 6.13 146,395 5.82India 5,821.5 2.45 58,955 2.34Indonesia 2,079.3 0.88 21,544 0.86Japan 15,628.5 6.58 157,025 6.24South Korea 3,366.4 1.42 34,404 1.37Netherlands 5,162.4 2.17 52,364 2.08Russia 5,945.4 2.50 60,194 2.39Saudi Arabia 6,985.5 2.94 70,595 2.81Switzerland 3,458.5 1.46 35,325 1.40UK 10,738.5 4.52 108,125 4.30US 42,122.4 17.73 421,964 16.78EU-27 75,941.50 31.96 779,395 30.99

Distribution of IMF Votes

• Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland more votes than S. Korea, France more than China

• Votes depend on quotas, which depend on contributions

• Point is: Asians seldom decide or act together in international gatherings

• In practical terms, no such thing as Asia• Region too diverse, too conflicted to exist

Rivalries not only in East Asia

• UN Security Council expansion• No need for veto by any of the P-5• Italy vs. Germany• Argentina vs. Brazil• Pakistan vs. India• Two Koreas, China vs. Japan

Regional Coalitions fragile

• Eurozone, EU collapse?• Regional institutions, coalitions fragile• But will take time for economic decline to be

transformed into diminution of influence, leadership

Conclusions

• No wave of takeovers by East Asians of major international bodies

• Maybe, leadership by Japanese or Chinese or person from HK or some other talented – and lucky – East Asian individual

• But not Asia as a region; on strength of votes from other regions

Conclusions

• Heading international bodies alone not measure of global leadership, but could be indicator of continent’s stature, civilisation’s influence

• For now Asia can exercise leadership by:– Promoting rule of law– Undertaking internal reforms– Education for innovation

• GDP growth not enough