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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, C March 2004, C U, Boulder U, Boulder Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, C March 2004, C U, Boulder U, Boulder Asian Monsoon… Asian Monsoon… K. Krishna Kumar K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow CIRES Visiting Fellow ( ( [email protected] [email protected] ) )

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K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow ( [email protected] ). Asian Monsoon…. Outline. Monsoon Mechanisms Scales of Variability MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible explanations of recent weakening Empirical/Dynamical Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall. Monsoons. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Asian Monsoon…Asian Monsoon…

K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarCIRES Visiting FellowCIRES Visiting Fellow

(([email protected]@colorado.edu))

Page 2: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

OutlineOutline

• MonsoonMonsoon

MechanismsMechanisms

Scales of VariabilityScales of Variability

• MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible explanations of recent weakeningexplanations of recent weakening

• Empirical/Dynamical Prediction of Empirical/Dynamical Prediction of Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall

Page 3: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

MonsoonsMonsoons

The term ‘MONSOON’ is derived from the Arabic word The term ‘MONSOON’ is derived from the Arabic word ‘mausim’, ‘mausim’, which means which means season..season..

Since early times, the term monsoon has been used to signify Since early times, the term monsoon has been used to signify any annual climate cycle with a dominant seasonal wind any annual climate cycle with a dominant seasonal wind reversal.reversal.

Ramage’s (1971) criteria to delineate the monsoon areas of Ramage’s (1971) criteria to delineate the monsoon areas of the world:the world:

• Prevailing wind direction shifts by at least 120º between Jan and JulyPrevailing wind direction shifts by at least 120º between Jan and July

• Average frequency of prevailing wind direction in Jan and July exceeds 40%Average frequency of prevailing wind direction in Jan and July exceeds 40%

• Mean resultant wind in at least one of the months exceeds 3 m/sMean resultant wind in at least one of the months exceeds 3 m/s

Page 4: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Global MonsoonsGlobal Monsoons(after C.S. Ramage, 1971)(after C.S. Ramage, 1971)

Page 5: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Schematic of Schematic of Winter (NE) and Winter (NE) and Summer (SW) Summer (SW) Monsoons over Monsoons over AsiaAsia

Page 6: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Sea Level Pressure and Wind Distribution during January and Sea Level Pressure and Wind Distribution during January and July in the TropicsJuly in the Tropics

Page 7: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Migration of Tropical Rain belts from Austral Migration of Tropical Rain belts from Austral Summer to Boreal SummerSummer to Boreal Summer

Page 8: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Monsoon –Monsoon – A Gigantic Land-Sea A Gigantic Land-Sea BreezeBreeze

Page 9: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Page 10: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Role of Mountains and the Orography Role of Mountains and the Orography on Monsoonson Monsoons

Page 11: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Indian Summer Monsoon FlowIndian Summer Monsoon Flow

Page 12: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Impact of Impact of Mountain Uplift Mountain Uplift on Asian on Asian Monsoon:Monsoon:

850 hPa Winds850 hPa Winds

(Kitoh 2004 (Kitoh 2004 15Feb, J. Climate)15Feb, J. Climate)

Page 13: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Impact on Impact on Rainfall Rainfall DistributionDistribution

Page 14: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Impact of Impact of Mountains on the Mountains on the Northward Northward propagation of propagation of Rainfall in East Rainfall in East Asia and the very Asia and the very existence of Baiu existence of Baiu Rainfall in JapanRainfall in Japan

Page 15: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Impact of Impact of Mountain Uplift Mountain Uplift on the on the formation of formation of Warm Pool in Warm Pool in the west Pacific the west Pacific and the east and the east Indian OceansIndian Oceans

Page 16: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Indian Summer MonsoonIndian Summer Monsoon

Page 17: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Semi-Permanent Systems of Indian MonsoonSemi-Permanent Systems of Indian Monsoon

Page 18: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Dates of Normal Onset and Withdrawal of Monson Rains in Dates of Normal Onset and Withdrawal of Monson Rains in IndiaIndia

OnsetOnset WithdrawalWithdrawal

Page 19: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)

Summer Monsoon(mm/season)

Annual(mm/year)

Page 20: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Indian Summer Monsoon Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityContribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability

Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)

Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

Page 21: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Mean Annual Cycle of Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly RainfallAll-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/m

on

th)

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Monsoon Monsoon VariabilityVariability

Intraseasonal Interannual Decadal/Century Millennia & longer

Onset/withdrawal; Active and break-monsoon phases;30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms

Droughts and floods

Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods

Changes in the areal extents of monsoons

Atmospheric variability;tropical-midlatitude interactions;Soil moisture;Sea surface temperatures

Atmospheric interactions;El Niño/ Southern Oscillation;Top layers of tropical oceans;Snow cover;Land surface characteristics

Monsoon circulation variations;Deep ocean changes;Greenhouse gases increase;Human activities;Biospheric changes;Volcanic dust

Global climate excursions;Ice ages;Warm epochs;Sun-earth geometry

Fa

cto

rsF

act

ors

Fe

atu

res

Fe

atu

res

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Intra-seasonal Oscillations:Intra-seasonal Oscillations:

Active/Break CyclesActive/Break CyclesMadden-Julian (30-60 day) OscillationsMadden-Julian (30-60 day) Oscillations

Page 24: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India ScaleScale

20022002 20032003

Page 25: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

OLR Anomalies OLR Anomalies Associated with Associated with prolonged break prolonged break situations in the situations in the Indian regionIndian region

Page 26: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Madden-Julian Oscillations:Madden-Julian Oscillations:

Page 27: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Eastward Eastward Propagating Propagating Tropical OLR Tropical OLR Anomalies (MJO)Anomalies (MJO)

Page 28: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Northward Propagation of Cloud bands in the Indian Northward Propagation of Cloud bands in the Indian region known as 30-60 day Oscillationsregion known as 30-60 day Oscillations

Page 29: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Interannual Variability of Indian Monsoon Interannual Variability of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Links with Rainfall and Links with

El NiEl Niño – Southern Oscillationño – Southern Oscillation

Page 30: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

The Stability of the Indian Summer The Stability of the Indian Summer MonsoonMonsoon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Years

Ra

infa

ll (c

m)

Mean (R) = 84.8 cmStandard Deviation (S) = 8 cm

R

R+S

R-S

Page 31: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Page 32: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Quasi-Biennial Cycle in Monsoon RainfallQuasi-Biennial Cycle in Monsoon Rainfall

Cycles/yearCycles/year

Biennial cycle in monsoon rainfall is attributed to theBiennial cycle in monsoon rainfall is attributed to theresponse of land-sea to strong/weak monsoonsresponse of land-sea to strong/weak monsoonsStronger monsoon leading to the cooling of the Indian land-massStronger monsoon leading to the cooling of the Indian land-massAnd the adjoining seas resulting in a weaker land-sea gradient in the And the adjoining seas resulting in a weaker land-sea gradient in the Next year and a weaker monsoonNext year and a weaker monsoon(refer to Gerry Meehl’s work for further understanding)(refer to Gerry Meehl’s work for further understanding)

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

MonRF epochsMonRF epochs

Page 34: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Page 36: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions

..

Page 37: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Global Impacts Global Impacts of ENSOof ENSO

Page 38: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Rainfall and ENSORainfall and ENSO

Page 39: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Page 41: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-

1980 and post-1980 periods1980 and post-1980 periods

(1981-97) – (1951-80)(1981-97) – (1951-80)El NinosEl Ninos

Diff. Climatologies of these PeriodsDiff. Climatologies of these Periods

Page 42: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 for El Nino 200 for El Nino

Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)

Page 43: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & 19971997

JJA 82 SON 82

JJA 97 SON 97

Monsoon Rainfall: -13%

Monsoon Rainfall: +2%

Page 44: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & 20022002

JJA 87 SON 87

JJA 02 SON 02

Monsoon Rainfall: -18%

Monsoon Rainfall: -19%

Page 45: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Precipitation Anomalies: JJAPrecipitation Anomalies: JJA

1982 1997

1987 2002

Monsoon Rainfall: -13% Monsoon Rainfall: +2%

Monsoon Rainfall: -18% Monsoon Rainfall: -19%

Page 46: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998

1988 1998

1988 1998

Page 47: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Surface Temp Anomaly over North Surface Temp Anomaly over North America: DJFAmerica: DJF

1983 1998

1988 2003

Page 48: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Precipitation/Forecasts of SST and Precipitation in JAS 2002 by Different GCMs

Page 49: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Page 51: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

SST Patterns Used for ENSO SST Patterns Used for ENSO ExperimentsExperiments

Page 52: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean ExperimentsExperiments

Page 53: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

AA

AA

CC

Page 54: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Response of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentResponse of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentEl Nino Related SST PatternsEl Nino Related SST Patterns

Model Model MonsooMonsoon n RainfallRainfall

ENSO - ENSO - CTLCTL

NINODL-NINODL-NINONINO

ENSOGW-ENSOGW-ENSOENSO

Page 55: Asian Monsoon…

Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder

Bibliography on Monsoon ResearchBibliography on Monsoon Research

http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Bibliography/http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Bibliography/frameindex.htmlframeindex.html