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Gujarat StudyGujarat Study

A Regional Experience of Accessing Regional Experience of Accessing Socio Economic Impacts of natural Socio Economic Impacts of natural

disastersdisasters

A Study for GSDMA

byAsian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) Center for Environmental Planning and Technology

(CEPT)Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai (IIT, Bombay)UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the

Caribbean (UNECLAC)

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Disasters and Economic Growth Trends in Gujarat

Though Gujarat is one of the most developed states of the country yet it is still much less than its potential.

The average annual compound growth rate of Gujarat • in 60’s - 3.32% per annum.

• In 70’s - 4.95% per annum.

• On this potential the rate of growth of Gujarat in eighties was projected to grow over at the rate of 6% per annum.

• In 80’s - 4.26% actual only.

The major reason for not achieving its full potential in eighties was several repetitive natural disasters. Similarly, the average annual compound growth rate of GSDP increased to over 9.57% per annum between 1990-91 to 1997-98 - the highest in the country.

Gujarat couldn’t sustain the same pace in the late nineties again because of the several repetitive natural disasters.

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Disasters in GujaratDisasters in GujaratYear Drought Floods Cyclone Earth

quake

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

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Impact of Disasters on Economic Impact of Disasters on Economic DevelopmentDevelopment

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

An

nu

al G

SD

P G

row

th R

ate

, %

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The Need to

Improve ability of Gujarat Government and local bodies

- To estimate rehabilitation and reconstruction financial requirements and to mobilize grants and loans

- To recover costs incurred in providing relief assistance

Improve ability for delivery of assistance to affected population based on scientifically-based damage and loss assessments;

Improve capacity to demonstrate the negative impacts of disasters on the economy and development of the State, and to argue the case for undertaking damage mitigation and vulnerability reduction (i.e. to advocate disaster-resilient development).

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Hence The Need For A Comprehensive Methodology

for Damage and Loss Assessment For Gujarat

Commissioned by GSDMA under GEERP

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Overview of the Study Activity 1: Institutional Mechanisms

and Training Needs for Damage and Loss Assessment

Activity 2: Improving Methodology for Damage Assessment

Activity 3: Developing Methodology for Loss Assessment

Activity 4: Capacity Building for Damage and Loss Assessment

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Damage Assessment Methodology

Primary focus is on condition of physical assets:• Buildings

• Roads and Bridges

• Water supply and sanitation structures

• Dams and other irrigation structures

• Industrial facilities (including power plants)

• Ports and other coastal structures

• Electrical and Communications system structures

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Objectives of Damage Assessment

Short-Term:

• To quickly identify the safety and usability of buildings, critical services structures and infrastructure

• To quickly estimate total damage (for reporting and policy purposes)

Medium-Term (buildings only):

• To assess status of doubtful category structures

• To reassess and quantify damage categories

Long-Term:

• To help develop rehabilitation/retrofitting procedures

• To help identify deficiencies in technical knowledge and its implementation mechanisms

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Key considerations for DA Should be based on international sound-practices

Should consider the types of structures prevalent in local context

Should consider the technical skills likely to be available after a disaster

Should incorporate experiences from recent disasters

Consistent and Minimize ‘perception’ based qualitative assessments

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Damage Level (%)

HAZUS-99 FEMA-273EMS-98 / MSK-64

ATC-13 ATC-20

0 No-Damage Limit State

10

Slight Damage

Immediate Occupancy

Grade 1 Slight

Green Tag20

Grade 2 Light30

40 Damage Control50

Moderate Damage

Grade 3Moderate

Yellow Tag60

Life Safety70

Heavy80Extensive Damage

Limited Safety

Grade 490 Near CollapseRed Tag

100 Partial Collapse Major

Collapse Limit State

Comparative damage categorization of International practices

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Damage Level (%)

HAZUS-99 FEMA-273EMS-98 / MSK-64

ATC-13 ATC-20

0 No Damage Limit State

10

Slight Damage

Immediate Occupancy

Grade 1 Slight

Green Tag20

Grade 2 Light30

40 Damage Control50

Moderate Damage

Grade 3Moderate

Yellow Tag60

Life Safety70

Heavy80Extensive Damage

Limited Safety

Grade 490 Near CollapseRed Tag

100 Partial Collapse Major

Collapse Limit State

Multiple methods arerequired to satisfy

overlapping objectives

1.3 Comparative damage categorization of International practices

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Proposed Methodology for DA of Buildings

Three-Stage Damage Assessment Methodology proposed

Rapid Safety Assessment

Detailed damage categorization (S-0 to S-5, NS-A to NS-D)

Detailed Engineering Evaluation

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Damage Assessment for Infrastructure

Some structures like Bridges and Storage Reservoirs are low redundancy structures – collapse may be sudden and catastrophic

Structural repairs are based on technically detailed evaluation – Method should be technically rigorous

Damage assessment likely to be carried out by technical persons from the responsible line departments

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Loss Assessment Methodology Presently no professionals available with most of

department to undertake analysis on loss assessment.

For Loss Assessment Information is required on:

Decreased output in the production sectors of agriculture, industry and commerce.

Increased expenditure and decreased revenues in the revenue State Govt account and private enterprise providing basic services.

Increased investments for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the State government development accounts.

Many State institutions and private enterprises do collect the basic data required to enable the estimation of losses but used for other purposes. Limited analysis done for estimating indirect losses.

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The ECLAC Handbook for The ECLAC Handbook for Disaster AssessmentDisaster Assessment

url://www.eclac.org/mexico

Adaptation

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Proposed Loss Assessment Methodology

Sector-by-Sector Loss Assessmenti. Productive Sectors

• Industry• Trade and Commerce• Agro-based Industry and Commerce

ii. Social sectors• Housing• Health• Water Supply and Sanitation• Education

iii. Infrastructure• Electricity• Water Resources• Transport and Communications

Macro-Economic Effects

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D&LA in Agriculture SectorExisting Methodology – 2 stage assessment

First Stage Assessment Damage data based on “Eye estimates”

Estimates do not capture mid season agricultural adjustments

A review of crop damage assessment procedures is required

Final Assessment

“Aanawari means an assessment of the observed and estimated crop out-turn of all crops a village as compared with an assumed

standard.”

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Proposed Methodology for Agriculture Sector

Six-stage loss estimation – geared to facilitate mitigation measures

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Reporting Format – Sample by dept/by sector

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Institutionalizing D&LA Methodology

Standardization of formats for assessing and reporting damage so as to have a consistent representation of losses due to a given disaster

Capacity Building of key personnel in use of the standardized formats

Establishment of focal points in each line department for damage and loss assessment

Establishment of a base line inventory of assets in each department and updating annually

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Institutionalizing D&LA Methodology..

Creation and maintenance of departmental Databases of disasters and impacts

Computerized system for easy aggregation, dis-aggregation and historical analysis for decision making

Government orders for confirming additional responsibility for each focal point

Handbook in local language for Users

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Capacity Building for D&LA Sector-wise assessment teams pre-identified and

trained

Teams to comprise of subject-experts from relevant departments

Volunteer network of private sector engineers to be established for Damage Assessment

Professionals of several disciplines – including, but not limited to, engineering and economics, at State and District levels, to receive special training in use of the loss assessment methodology

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Thank YouThank You