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ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
The Asian Century: Plausible But Not Pre-ordained
… a ten seminar series
Moderated by Rajat M. Nag
…a five lecture series
Rajat M. Nag
Distinguished Fellow, NCAER
1
Rajat M. Nag 2
LECTURE 1: THE TWO FACES OF ASIA AND THE
NEED FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Rajat M. Nag
Source:
World Bank Data, data.worldbank.org/indicator, for 1995, 2000
HDR 2014, Table 1, HDI and its components
HDR 2000, for GDP/capita for the sub-regions
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
3
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1995 2000 2013
cu
rre
nt in
tern
atio
na
l $, 2
01
1 p
rice
s
GNI per capita, PPP
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag
Source:
• ADB/UNESCAP/UNDP
• Asia Pacific Regional MDG Report 2012/13 p. 76
4
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Earlier Later
Poverty as percent of population ($1.25/day PPP)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan Asia-Pacific
Rajat M. Nag
Source: HDR 2014, HDI Trends 1980-2013, Table 2
5
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Human Development Index, 1980-2013
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
Norway East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag 6
Source: World Bank Data; data.worldbank.org/indicator
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Life Expectancy (years) at birth
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag 7
Source: World Bank Data; data.worldbank.org/indicator
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1990 2000 2010-12
Adult Literacy (% of age 15 and over)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag 8
Source: World Bank Data: data.worldbank.org/indicator
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1990 2000 2012
Access to improved water source, rural (% of population)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
Rajat M. Nag 9
Source: World Bank Data: data.worldbank.org/indicator
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2012
Access to improved sanitation (% of population)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
Rajat M. Nag 10
Source: World Bank Data: data.worldbank.org/indicator
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag 11
Source:
(1) HDR 2000, Table 9
(2) HDR 2014, Table 7
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1970 1998 2012
Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births)
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Pakistan
East Asia and Pacific South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Rajat M. Nag
Asian Century
Source: Asia 2050, Emerging Markets Forum
Share of global GDP (
%), MER Asian Century
Asia 52
PRC 20
India 16
United States 12
GDP ($ trillions, MER)
Asia 174
PRC 68
India 53
United States 38
World 333
GDP per capita ($ PPP)
Asia 40,800
PRC 52,700
India 40,700
United States 94,900
World 37,300
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
Under the Asian Century Scenario, by 2050:
• Some 3 billion more Asians could become affluent
• Asia’s output could be just over half the world’s output
• Asia’s per capita income could rise six-fold in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms
• Asia could be about as prosperous as Europe today
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LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
Asia’s share of global GDP, 1700-2050
Source: Asia 2050, Emerging Markets Forum
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
BASIC PROPOSITION:
THE ASIAN CENTURY: PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT INEVITABLE
Eight Challenges Ahead:
1. Continuing and large deprivations, and rising inequality
within countries ( The Two Faces of Asia )
2. Population Dynamics and Demographics: a curse or a
dividend?
3. Intense Competition for natural resources
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LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
4. Infrastructure deficits/managing massive urbanization
5. Transforming Finance
6. Regional Co-operation and Integration
7. Governance and Institutions
8. Global warming and climate change
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LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
The Middle Income Trap: Unable to compete
Source: Asia 2050, Emerging Markets Forum
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 18
SEMINAR 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Green Growth
Clean Growth
Inclusive Growth
Sustainable
Growth
Achieve
income and
non-income
prosperity
Rajat M. Nag 19
Asia and the Pacific share of the developing world’s
deprived people
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
20
0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.700
Gender Inequality Index (2013)
Source: HDR 2014
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
East Asia and Pacific
South Asia
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Estimated GNI/capita in 2013 (2011 PPP $)
Male Female
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
Primary School Completion Rates, by
Disability Status
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 22
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
Actual and simulated poverty
rates at $1.25
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag
The Challenge:
To get these two faces of Asia to converge
The Need for Inclusive Growth
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LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 25
Action Agenda
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Source: Zhuang 2010
Rajat M. Nag 26
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Relationship between economic growth and the HDI and its
nonincome components, 1970-2010
Rajat M. Nag
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 28
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Population without access to improved water supplies
Rajat M. Nag
THANK YOU
29
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 30
Next Seminars…
Seminar 2 (Tuesday, April 28, 2015)
Population Dynamics and Demographics
Competition for Natural resources
Seminar 3 ( Tuesday, May 12, 2015)
Infrastructure Deficits
Transforming Finance
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
Rajat M. Nag 31
Seminar 4 ( Tuesday, May 26, 2015)
Governance and Institutions
Regional Cooperation and Integration
Seminar 5: (Tuesday, June 9, 2015)
Global Warming and Climate Change
Conclusion
LECTURE 1: The Two Faces of Asia and the Need for Inclusive Growth
