Asia Policy 16 July2013

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asia policy

number 16 july 2013

Contents

u roundtable u

Hi W Sci:

T Chgs Sh Shs Asi

introduction 2

asias unstable water tower: the politics, economics,and ecology of himalayan water projects 4

Kenneth Pmernz

chinas upstream advantagein the great himalayan watershed 11

Jenner L. urner, Sun Chn Shett, nd Rbert Btten

melting the geopolitical ice in south asia 19

Rbert G. Wrng

himalayan water security:a south asian perspective 26

uhr Shh nd Mrk Grdn

hydropower dams on the mekong:old dreams, new dangers 32

Rhrd P. Crnn

climate change and water securityin the himalayan region 39

Rhrd Mtthew

securing the himalayas as the water tower of asia:an environmental perspective 45

Jnt Bnddh


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u book review roundtable u

Ax CsGret Gme, L Rue:

Te New Gret Pwer Cntet n Centr A

central asia as a case study for a multipolar world 162

Mrene Lruee

how to suborn great powers 164

Jme Sherr

winners and losers of strategic games in central asia 167Mmuk erete

old games, new rules?great powers in the new central asia 17 1

Kthrn Stner

why washington needs to integrate the

new silk road with the pivot to asia 175Andrew C. Kuhn

domestic challenges, international opportunities:understanding security cooperation in central asia 179

Er Mrt

the rules of central asias games are changing 181

S. Ender Wmbuh

can we change the rules?external actors and central asia beyond 2014 185

Aexnder Ce


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guidelines for submission

A Pis p-viw v igig h gp w cic

sch pickig isss h Asi-Pcic. T pishs

p-viw sch ics pic sss, s pic-v pics

c picis, k viw sss, s w s h ccsi s.

I. General Requirements

A P wcs h sissi pic-v sch ip isss ih Asi-Pcic. T wi csi w i ps sissis p viw:sch ics h ps w ii, hic wks, gs w c pic ipicis; pic sss h pvi igi, pssiv, igs sis. Ahs is is i hvig k csi viwsh si cp h k h gig i NBR, NE S,Si , S, Wshig . Sissis s .

A P qis h si scips hv pvispish i , ih i p i wh, c csii h gizi. A pi s gs i hscipwhh pici i Egish h ggs pp h i sissi. T h sh s sci h ckg h scip p sissi h s , icig whh h scip cp ps hv ps ccs hv pp i.

II. Manuscript Format

h scip sh i is Nw R, -pi wih .-i spcig. Rschics sh g , , ws, pic sss sh g , , ws.

I si ccssi picks, ch scip s ic () i Pg,() -pg Exciv S, () ccis Ici ccig h qisis w.

) T i Pg sh ic h ic i, hs , is v kws, sh igphic s ( ws) h iss h hs -i ss.

asia policy http://asiapolicynbrorg

eer-revewed jurn devted t brdgng the g between demreerh nd mkng n ue reted t the A-P


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) hp ig h pic cic ciis, sch pish NBRs ic -pg Exciv S ppxi ws h ics:

pic S h Mi Ag h Pic Ipicis

A me Exeutve Summr rvded n Setn III bew.

) T Ici NBR picis sh xc w pgs i gh sh pi sci:

h spcic qsi h h pp sks sw h pic ipc h qsi h i g/igs h pp

s igs sh pc h h c, wih [Is X h]is i h x h pppi cis. D ic s igs i hici. A igs ps sh pvi i cic .

Ahs cg cs c isss A P gic s ig. F s s (icig s), NBR g ws h h ii h Chg Mnu Ste (Chicg: Uivsi Chicg Pss, ).

III. Sample Executive Summary

Tis essay examines the linkages between Chinas national economy and

oreign policy over the past 30 years, and assesses the claim that Chinese

oreign policy has undergone an important shi in which domestic demand

or energy and other raw materials heavily inuence oreign policy decisions.

main argument

Assessments o Chinese oreign policy intentions and goals oen conclude

that the need to gain more reliable access to oil and other natural resources is

a central aim o Chinese oreign policy and overall strategic considerations.

Tis essay argues that the coherence o Chinas economic goals and the

coordination needed to achieve them are eroding as multiple competing

interests within the Chinese polity emerge to pursue and protect power and

resources. Tis ragmentation o economic policy into multiple competing

agendas has to be understood alongside assessments that resource needs

drive Chinese oreign policy. Te essay rst surveys how shiing economicpriorities have inuenced Chinese oreign policy over the past 30 years. A

second section discusses Chinas shi rom an export-led, resource-dependent

growth model to one that is more balanced toward domestic consumption.

Te essay concludes by noting that Chinas search or a rebalanced economy

and or a new growth model creates opportunities and constraints on Chinese

oreign policy.

policy implications

While Chinas domestic economic goals have always been an importantactor in oreign policy, Chinese diplomatic initiatives globally and its policiestoward oil-producing states are driven by a ar more complicated convergenceo actors than a simple narrative o oil diplomacy would suggest.

Chinaspluralizedpolitical economymakessuch rebalancingmuch moredifcult politically, given the potential winners and losers in this process.Tose who now urge China to make a shi away rom an export-heavygrowth pattern are likely to grow increasingly rustrated unless theyunderstand that the central leaders do not possess the instruments toquickly transorm the Chinese economy.

GiventhatChina,likenoothereconomy,hasbenettedfromtheinstitutionso the global economy, China has a strong interest in maintaining theseinstitutions and their liberal principles, even as the Chinese governmentseeks to play a stronger role in their operation and governance.

Article Topic [preerablyno longer than 23 lines]

Policy Implications[preerably in the orm obulleted i then statements that spelloutthe benets or problems associated withspecic policy options rather than stating that

the government should take a certain action]

Executive Summary[total lengthnot to exceed 275 words]

Main Argument[preerablyno longer than 610 lines]

executive summary


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IV. Note Format and Examples

Ciis s sh pc i s; phic i is ccp. Fh cii s, h Chg Mnu Ste.

Part 1: English-Language Sources Book (with ISBN): Ah[s] is s [s], tte (ci pici: pish, ),

pg [s].

H.P. Wi, Emre n the Bne: Jnee nd Aed P Strtege t Ar 1942 (Apis: U.S. NvIsi Pss, ), .

Edited volume (with ISBN): Ei[s] is s [s], [s]., tte (ci pici:pish, ), pg [s].

Ash J. is Mich Wis, s., Strteg A 200405: Cnrntng errrm n the Purut Pwer(S:T Ni B Asi Rsch, ), .

Chapter in an edited volume (with ISBN): Ah[s] is s [s], i ic,i tte edted vume, . i[s] is s [s] (ci pici: pish, ),pg [s].

G Chs, Fcig Uci F: Dc Sci h Hw Gv, i TeNtn Interet n the Gb Er: Autr n Wrd Ar 19962000, . Js C Jh Rvhi(M: Ox Uivsi Pss, ), .

Journal article (in a journal with ISSN): Ah[s] is s [s], i ic, tte jurn[v. #], . [#] (): pg [s].

Jigg Y, T Bsh Dci: Chis Pspcivs Rspss,An Peretve , . (): .

Reports (no ISBN or ISSN): Ah[s] is s [s], i p, pish, psis, pici, pg [s].

Jsh Kzick, Chis Ch: Ipicis Chis S Pw, Cgi Ew IiPc, Pic Bi, . , J .

Newspaper or magazine article: Ah[s] is s [s], i ic, nme newer/mgzne, pici, pg [s].

Kih Bsh, U.S. Sks Cpi wih Chi, New Yrk me, J , , A.

Electronic documents and website content: Ah[s] is s [s], i, URL.F cii sh h cspig pi-sc cg i pssi.

N Rscs, Oc Cic Mg Miigi USAID, hp://www.si.gv/_wk/css-cig_pgs/cic/cs_s/_scs.h.

Public documents: Gv p ic, tte dument, [h iiigii], pici, pg [s].

Hs Ci Ii Is Afis, Sci Eg h Evi, InterntnPrertn Nuer ehng, p pp W H. D B Rh, h Cg., sss., , Ci Pi , .

Personal communication and interview: Ah[s] [ps cici/-i/ph cvsi/iviw] wih [is s ], pc, .

Ahs iviw wih Hi Zki, Ls Ags, J , .


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Part 2: Foreign-Language Sources

Wh wiig h ig-gg i gg h ss -R scip, psh h s Rizi s. NBR ps Pii Chis, Hp Jps, McC-Risch K.

Book: Ah [s],regn nguge tte [Egish si i] (ci pici:pish, ), pg [s].

Sk Hishi, Nh-Be dme hnek: An t mtuku [H-C h Jp-U.S. Aic: Sci Sc Ags] (k: Ashi Shish, ), .

Nte: When the wrk wrtten n regn nguge, regn ubher nme hud ntbe trnted, thugh the t hud be gven n t Engh rm.

J ic: Ah [s], ig gg ic i [Egish si ici],regn nguge jurn tte [v. #], . [#] ( pici): pg [s].

Li Jii, Gzh chgsh Zhgi gxi [Dvpig M Si-U.S. Riship], Zhnggu kexuexueb , . (J ): .

Scs s i Egish ig gg: ci h s isig s.[ss is s ] h i h pici.

H Fizsch,An Equtn tht Chnged the Wrd, s. Ki Hsch (Chicg: Uivsi Chicg Pss,), .

Part 3: Subsequent Citation

Us h[s] s sh is ( ws ss) pvis ci scs.Op. ci. c. ci. sh s.

First use:S P. Hig, he Ch Cvztn nd the Remkng Wrd Order (Nw Yk: chs,), .

Subsequent use:Hig, Ch Cvztn, .


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roundtableHi W Sci:

T Chgs Sh Shs Asi

Kenneth Pmernz

Jenner L. urner, Sun Chn Shett,

nd Rbert Btten

Rbert G. Wrng

uhr Shh nd Mrk Grdn

Rhrd P. Crnn

Rhrd Mtthew

Jnt Bnddh

asia policy, number 16 (july 2013), 150

http://asiapolicynbrorg

T Ni B Asi Rsch, S, Wshig


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[ 2 ]

asia polic y

Introduction

h sc c scs spp cic ppi gwh, ci wih h ci fcs cichg h i P, is isig sis i Asi v Hiw scs. h gis gs gs ivs (h A

D, Bhp, Ggs, Is, Iw, Mkg, Sw, i,

Ygz, Yw) igi i h His (s Figure 1). Ts ivs

hp pvi w, , g ii pp i Chi

css Sh Shs Asi h h ws ppi.

Hwv, pi ivsi hs s scs

gwig isi, gic, s hv h pi

igg -chig cic, sci, vi chgs.

Tarim

Yellow

Yangtze

Mekong

SalweenIrrawaddy

Brahmaputra

Ganges

Amu Darya

Indus

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

PAKISTAN

INDIA

CHINA

MYANMAR

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

NEPAL

BHUTAN

VIETNAM

SRI LANKA

LAOSBANGLADESH

BRUNEI

FIGURE

Mjr Hmn Rver


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[ 3 ]

roundtable himalayan water security

T ck cphsiv fciv gi wks

cpi his ssi g hs wws. Chi,

which cs h hws hs ivs, hs s

Hi w sis cic g s hs i

iciv picip i w-shig w-g

gs wih is ighs. Chis -iig w-ivsi

pcs sc cc h cis ws, which

cpi Biigs ck spc cc sh

ii. Ahgh gig w-shig is wih Chi

igh h s pi chg, cpi is ch si

h i w chs h ivs. Ci i Sh

Shs Asi is q s cpig i iss,cic piiis, piic isps, wk gi gizis.

I ii h vi ipcs - ivsi pcs

ssi shw sg, h is s iq cpi

sciic sch s pp h fcs ci

chg h gis w sppis.

Tis A P cis sv sss h iscss h

chgs ipicis w sci i Asi c sps

h h ps ws cis c k gh gis sh w scs.


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asia polic y

A U W :T P, E, E H W Pj

Kenneth Pmernz

A sis gs ivs vicig h Ygz,Mkg, Bhp (which cs p h Ggs), Isigi i h His h i P cciv

sv % h ws ppi. Iq i w sppis

ps sis wsig ps i h cis g hs ivs,

s g shgs. vig gs, hs isss h sic

sii hgh h gi, ig cis i s c

w ws g hcic pw. Sch pcs ps

sigic vi isks c ii si v w-

shig s ivs. Fh, i Asis gs ivs

gi i Chi, which hs w-shig gs wih ws

cis; i s css, h ws cis s hv gs

wih cis h ws. Ev h shig hgic

is sp. T Chi, s h ps c, is icsig cp

kig pcs h w ss is s h xps is

ws ighs ks h sii v s. Whi Chi

hs pis i h cis iss, i cis

k cisis i sc. Ci chg, which is

ik c h w spp h sc Hi ivs,

wi gi hs isps p k si h

gs spcic s w ps i iv spcic

cis si.

Tis ss iscsss h ipicis Chis -iig pcswihi h Hi wsh, s w s pssi pc h

Biig is pig which is ighs . T x sci h

scis pssi sis c w isps. T ss

gs h h cii ii ps g-g

hs qis, h v s, h vps. Fis, s

sh sic , h hg p pcs.

kenneth pomeranz is Uivsi Pss Chis his h Uivsi Chicg. H c ch .

noteuTis ss is pi p h hs chp i h hcig v NewSeurt Chenge n A, . Mich Wis R M. Hhw (Wshig, D.C.: WwWis C Pss/Jhs Hpkis Uivsi Pss, ).


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[ 5 ]


Sc, sps s k isiiiz s s cpi i

h xpii hs ivsih hgh ii gizis

i gs (.g., i wship hcic s).

Ti, cis wi k sic fs g w

c ws i ws h ss pc w sppis

wih s. I is pic ip h Chi ip

hs chgs, sic sch fs ps h s pi Biig

ci ss is ighs h i wi pp h w ivs

h gi i Chis i. F, ws ci ccig

fs s ik f Chi w sci p sp,

ss isk, h h g-pcs h is ighs .

Chn, It Neghbr, nd the Imtn Dm-budng

Icsig, Chis pspcs ci cic gwh

h shgs c w isig g . T

c hs q h g p cpi w spp,

cs phsis isig gic is xig iigi

( ici), wk c pi cs, cic

gs h i w csvi hv xc hsii. Mssiv xpii g qis sic h s

sk hs ps pi, h cs gw is ig

pi p. I ii, Chi, h w, ivs

ssi i pw his cic gwh. Dscig h

ws highs is, Hi w fs s, si

g xpi, hpw pi.

Wih w g psss ig whi is giig

cig cpiiis gw, i is spisig h Chi is kigs w pcs i i c pvics: hs ic c

gig pcs h Chis pis h Is, S, Bhp,

Sw, Iw, Mkg. Ahgh Chi isiss h hs

pcs wi hv vs fcs ws c, his is

ipssi s, v wih cp spc. U h c

cicscs, ws cis xiis ci gw.

Lkig i h ckg is pssiii ch hig

h c : h Biig wi v iv hg s

w ii ivs h s i i ss chic w

shgs i h Chis Yw Hi iv sis. Sch ivsi

hs iscss s. Is chi pic p, G Ki, is i


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[ 6 ]

asia polic y

gi g. T i s hs spp

si ii cs, s w s wihi h Chis Ac Scics,

ws h sc ch-iscss k i c bet Wter

W Sve Chn. T Miis W Rscs hs pic c h

i s chic cpx, vi isk, gs

Chis ig is. Sigic s h Chis civiss

hv s pps i, piig h pic csqcs

g-pcs ps h hv is i s.

B h cis ws, his is gh

pvi ssc. Ag h isss, h h Chi si

hs s wk iig s ivsi h wi v s

h Ygzs w hw (h s xpsiv csci pci his), h h ppig ii ivs w ik k

s s h pcs hi, ws pg (which hs

g). T h pc ws ic i h c v- p

is hs i sigic. I, h Sh-Nh W Divsi

p, whh i sccs is, c p g ivsi

sch. I i sccs, h pc w i cc i sch sis

pvi ch h isc which ivsi schs

c piggck. O h h h, i h pc is isc, i is h h Ygz c sp gh w sv h hs

ps, s hik is ikxpig h pc ppig i

ivs h c w h c igh c v pig.

Ts, w piics ci cics h sish,

p g, wih s ch g cics.

Wih sish isiis css- w g,

c ps iss h ihiis pgss isss,

whi sv g- isss k i h ss ii

ps. I s hp, cs, h h ws cis

hv hi w w ps. Ii Pkis v

w-sss h Chi, h hvi p iig

gic spp icsig cpi isc. Bgsh

h i cis Shs Asi hv gh w

vg hss v v s chgs ps,

i p cs h w hi ivs cs s v hcs h . I, isc, hpw h Yg

sgp (h pp Bhp) i s w i h

spig, wh w hgh is is igh hwis iq,

h c c p ps i Ii Bgsh s wh


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[ 7 ]


w p cps w. A chgs i h ss hhs

h Mkg hv sis ipicis h ws gs shw

sh, which is cci Vi Ci; chgs i iv

w c ics sw ivsi h hs sv ivs, wih

sis csqcs gics. T ws cis

h Lcg/Mkg (Ls, Ti, Ci, Vi) ci

h sch ps ccig s s Chis s

h Lcg sv sch s i pgss. Mwhi,

ws cis pig hi w s hs s

ivs. I css, h f w s h ps s,

sii isks, s ik pc w cs h ps

h w h ws cis c ss cpig h s -iig.

Wter Prbem nd Sutn

T ss q is sisc: shgs c w hv

c c pic hh ciss i hs cis c

sis ipi sci i sv ss. B w pcs ig

hi w gs. Lg-sc s i sisic civ s ci csphic, hv hg s csqcs, v i h

scc i giig s. Ds i Y s i ps

hs ip iivsi hsps. Pi cics v w

scs hv s piicis iss pic w ws,

pic g Chi, Ii, Pkis, vc cc

csci w pcs i pp h is ps.

Mwhi, ci chg h cpics s. Hi

gcis shikig pi, h is vic gig- h i P; his c h h gi

cpis ii ivs igiig h wi

w v s h xpc. Mwhi, kws s

wh ci chg wi h Sh Asi Es/Shs Asi

ss. I ss ik, hwv, h g w sg cpci wi

qi cp wih icsig ic wh. A s

kig h ws gs -iig f, Chi c s

, cic s () w p ihi. Tis is i cs

h v , w sg p ihi i h Ui Ss


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asia polic y

Asi (ich cis h, ik Chi, hv g i s )

h ci gs i Ii i Pkis.1

Ev p chic piic spi, h is

sighw si hs ps. T Chi, wih h vg

ig ps, s hs h gs giig cpci, ii

c g pcs, p h s cc i

iss ks i v h s h h iss wk pis

csi. B s s sps s pssi.

M ii -shig w g s. I hs,

isc, ipssi ih vi c Shs Asi

cis h Chis csci hs xc c ghs

sh ps. Chis c ci Ii qss xp hxchg hgic h Yg sgp/Bhp

c h w cis xchg ii , ig

sss hp h sii.2 I, s Chi hs s, h h s

c csci h iv hs p h

p --h-iv pcs, wih sg ivsi cpci,

kig i si vi his w ci.3 sis w Ii

Bgsh v h Bhp-Ggs iv ss hv s

csi sic Ii, h ps c, g pviig .Tis hs iscssis w h w cis v i wship

s sggss h g spc igh hv

sii s swh. I g hcic s gig

i h ii ivs h gi i Chi, ps sis wi

hgh wsf h s i w pw g,

pp ispc, vi isk. Csq, pcs wihi

Chi i which ws cis hv sk w p

h ch c gig i .

1 Mich Spc, T Ls Dp: Cig h Pssiii G Csph, New Yrker,Oc , u hp://www.wk.c/chiv////_c; Jh Bisc R.P.S. Mik, Ind Wter Enm: Brng r urbuent Future (Wshig, D.C.: WBk Ox Uivsi Pss, ), u hps://pkwg.wk.g/is/h///PUBINWBxBPUBLIC.p?sqc=; JhBisc Us Q, Pktn Wter Enm: Runnng Dr(Wshig, D.C.: W

Bk Ox Uivsi Pss, ), .2 S Chi Spiks Iis Pps Ji Mchis h Bhp, Hndu, Api ,u hp://www.hhi.c/ws/i/chi-spiks-iis-pps--i-chis--hp/ic.c.

3 I i hp h wh h s hs s ws ckwg i Nv , hEgish Chis vsis h s Chis ci Xih ws gc if his cci pi, hgh s vic hs sc cic h ssigEgish vsi h x.


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[ 9 ]


A h s i, hwv, Chi Ii s s ss wh

pps ssic is i v g-pcs, v wh hs

pcs pic g sis pssig ps. I is

h iv, isc, h h $ ii sp Chis

sh-h w s (ssig cs vs) c

vi shgs i i w sp pi c (wig g

-s), ci iigi, s ss

sch s xig iis k cs. Sch fs w ci

ivv ss isk wc spiss. Chi hs g

c w ws, ch is pssi. I Ii Pkis,

cscig w-c ciiis hs s csis piiiz

v pp ic h W Bk ps sci h ciss wig i/gc/i phisph pic wks.4 F

vis ss, spcc pcs h xp w spp

k cs i piic spp h s-sc fs

h c pciv , h p

p sis, spci giv icsig ci hw

ch w wi vp i spcic cis. T s,

s i h, si g cic.

Ls, h ciic iss sci iks sic qsis cig w ws wih ii s, h

ivvig si cis ik h Ui Ss. Sic gic

cis i w s i hs cis (cs % i Chi

% i Ii), i s h sc s w svigs. B whi

s sch fs w c p, hs ik w:

isc, f h i i p isig w pics (s hs

hpp s x) w ivi cs s cic

gi cp pci cs. Mwhi, wi ci

gw, spci i, s xpc, icsig psps pp

is wih pi. Tis iss cci qsis whh

h h-w s-scic Chi Ii i sic sfs is

ssi v cssi sigiv hi v is

w ppi. P w ik w i which

sch hg cis c hvi ip-p; h cc

ispc s w xc ic sci qsis,

4 O Pkis, s W Bk, B Mg Is Bsi Ws: Sgic Isss Chgs, J , ; Ii, s Bisc Mik, Ind Wter Enm, u hps://pkwg.wk.g/is/h///PUBINWBxBPUBLIC.p?sqc=.


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asia polic y

v i gh c pchs pc h pci

h w s s pp qi ig. Ts, ss w-

svig chgis s ik g- piiv w

shgs h g ips . B i ss iisic is

w s ivs s , sig his pcss s

ivv siig gic w s, gs h ips wi

vi i c hp cksp pp cisis. Whi

s p si Asis w ciss, sch gs igh,

h gi, pvi icivs ics gi cpi;

gi cpi hs isss c wi ch g.


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[ 11 ]


Ch Up A h G H Wh

Jenner L. urner, Sun Chn Shett, nd Rbert Btten

h -chc Chis ii ig h gis (de tn du hu) cps Chis ipi vg i h g

Hi wsh. I Mh Ns ck h w, Chi is h

ig wi; h gs ivs i h Hi wsh igi

i h gcis i. T Yw, Ygz, Mkg, Bhp,

Sw, S, Is ivs pvi w . ii pp h

is i i w s i Bgsh, Chi, Ii, M,

Pkis, Vi. As h ps pw, Chi hs h ii

c h qi w w h chs is ws ighs.

T cc h csChis icsig

hcic pw, w scci, h s

ivs isig sis i h g Hi wsh. Chis

hg g i ciis isis, whi h s i

cig ghs gs issis, hs spk w wv pig

zs g-s g h iss hs s

ivs. Y Biigs ck spc is -iig pcs isis i cpig ggig wih h w ipi

ss i i s s is ws ighs, which

s ig h s ivs cici gi.

T gi sp s isiiiz w-shig

gs pcics cs cis icsig

vvpig wsig scc shw scs. Tis vs

is ccig gis h ckp ci chgs kw fcs

h Hi iv sis. T k chg h gisw-shig fs is h c pw ic w Chi is

ighsChi cs h hws hs ivs is

s h s pw s i h gi, cic iii.

jennifer l. turner is h Dic h Chi Evi F h WwWis Ii C Schs i Wshig, D.C. Sh c ch

.susan chan shifflett is Pg Assci h Chi Evi F hWw Wis Ii C Schs i Wshig, D.C. Sh c ch .

robert batten is S Rsch Assis h Chi Evi F hWw Wis Ii C Schs i Wshig, D.C. H c ch .


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asia polic y

Ts, Biig hs i iciv i cpiv w

gs wih is wk ws ighs.

Tis ss s iscsss hw Chis isig h g

shw ivig h -iig pcs h g

h w w qi ivs ig h ws cis

Sh Shs Asi. I h csis hw Chis vsi

w-shig gs is sig is ighs. Ahgh i

c c Chi cp, c h ii gp

h css iig. T ss ccs ppsig

c sick ppch h w cg Chis picks

ssi vp h ps ws sip ws

cis pc Chis w w sci.

he Re Eet Chn Wter Need

Te dmet mtn Chn energ demnd. Chis vcis

ppi g cis gw. T Ii Eg Agc

css h h cs g wi is %

.1 As sg icsig ks Chis ciis, Chis ciizs

ig ggssiv ci h gv c h i.Biig hs s gs sc % h cs g ssi

scs , wih % pc c hcic pw.

I pic, Chis s cgiz h v w c,

which c sppis % h cs cici. ch his g,

Chi wi is p hcic pw.2

Tis hcic pw s iv c is

pic cs Chi is w-sss i. Ahgh w is

i s s, h cs p cpi shw scs , cic s, -q h g vg.3 Accig

sv s h Chis Miis W Rscs i Mch

, ig , ivs i h c hv ispp i

i s h ps s.4 Rpi izi isiizi hv

1 S W Eg Ok , Ii Eg Agc, u hp://www.i.g/picis/picis/pici/Egish.p.

2 R Ch, T Psh D Chis Rivs, S h P, w g, Eh Isi, M ,u hp://gs.i.ci.////h-psh---chi%%%s-ivs/.

3 Rw I Fshw Rscs P Cpi (Cic Ms), W DvpIics, W Bku hp://.wk.g/iic/ER.HO.INR.PC.

4 Aw Jcs, Ps Hss Chis Rivs Pw T Rgi, New Yrk me,M , u hp://www.is.c////w/si/ps--hss-chis--iv-h--gi.h.


21/200

[ 13 ]


cc his w scci. B , si ii

ppgh qiv h i U.S. ppiwi

Chis ppi.5 N ssiv s scs

qi i ciis, is cs g. Fh,

h g pci gic high w-isiv i Chi:

c pci, xp, ccs % h is w s,

gic csis %.6

h hpw gs h wh v- p, h

c gv hs s g cscig i g

s , pii cs ivs wig h His

i Sh Shs Asi. Giv h h w h ,

gcis si i h Hi Ksh Hi i gs h qis w s h iv sis hgh h gi, h

pps s h h w sci ws is

ics si wih Chi.

Suthet A dwntrem ment. Chi g iig h s

sis s h Mkg Riv i . Sic h, Chis s

hv w w vs, isp si ws, g h

hh shis i M, Ti, Ls, Ci, Vi. I

Ti, sh g h wih Ls hv p h h ivhs c pic sic Chi g ps csci.7

Likwis, s hv h sigic ipc ws gic.

T Mkg Riv D, xp, sppis w % Vis

ic cp, which pvis % h cs GDP.8 Dig sv

gh i , w Mkg csviiss ci h Chi ws

sig gh w, wsig gh ciis.9

Accig E Gi, iivsi spciis Chis Kig

Isi B, h wi sigic ipcs h civ

5 S Mkg/Lcg Riv, Ii Rivsuhp://www.iiivs.g/cpigs/kg-cg-iv .

6 Ji Wg, Chis Nw W Ecic gs ( Ipicis F Eg), G Lp Fwu hp://gpw.c////chis-w-w-cic-gs--ipicis----g.

7

Yi L, Chi Hpw Ds i Mkg Riv Giv Shcks Mii, Bg,Oc , u hp://www.g.c/ws/--/chi-hpw-s-i-kg-iv-giv-shcks---ii.h.

8 Rich Ci ih Hi, Mkg ig Pi: Sh Riv ShF, Sis C, J u hp://www.sis.g/igs/ps/sch-ps/SRSF_W_.p.

9 Chi Dis Ds Ws Dgh i Mkg Bsi, Chn D, Mch ,u hp://www.chii.c.c/chi/-//c_.h.
http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/mekong-lancang-rivehttp://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/mekong-lancang-rivehttp://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/mekong-lancang-rivehttp://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/mekong-lancang-rive


22/200

[ 14 ]

asia polic y

pi Chis hpw s.10 T s sv Shs

Asi cis hv ps Chis isiss h g giv

ws fcs is -iig civiis. O h siis

h Asi-Pcic Ecic Cpi (APEC) si i Rssi,

xp, Vis psi g Sg his iss,

sig h csci s ss s cis

i ps ivs csi gwig cc cis

ipici ipig is w v cis.11 Likwis, h

Ci iis sp pic wks, Kh gi,

c c h Chis s wi wk hi w c. W

ws, s w sf h giv csqcs. I h is

w s, sh, vgi, his is ig iss.12

ss w sci, Ci, Ls, Ti, Vi

c h igv Mkg Riv Cissi (MRC) i

i vp hi sh w scs. Chi c ig

p h MRC i , cis hv s sig h Mkg

Ag c -g . Shs Asi cis

ci g Chi picip i h MRC. Ev hgh

MRC g cis Chi sig w-v is

Jighg Mw s, Biig ss s k wqi, pi, iigi sg. Chis ship w

c i which hs ss c fciv vc hi

w ighs pss Biig sis csi h ws

ipicis vp.

Anger n Suth A. Ts , Chi hs pps sv s h

i ch h Bhp Riv, h ii s i Ii

Bgsh. Chi c ppv csci h w hpw

s h i chs h iv, ig w- z w

pcs i ccs Ii vi gps. T S

Ccis g sg h wh v- p pi ()

s h h gv wi psh w vigs h hpw

s csci h i chs h Bhp.

10 Di Sch, Ls D Pc ss Ciii Mkg Riv Cissi, Vic

Aic, J , u

hp://www.vws.c/c/s--pc-ss-ciii--kg-iv-cissi/.h.

11 g Sg, q i Psw Pi, W Ws F Ov Mkg,Ri F Asi, Sp , u hp://www..g/gish/cis/s-si-/kg-.h.

12 Ri Bg ., Rereenttn nd Den-Mkng n Envrnment Pnnng wth Emhn Energ ehnge (Bgkk: UNESCO Bgkk), , u hp://sc.sc.g/igs///.p.


23/200

[ 15 ]


Chi isiss h h s i is iig h iv, which

p h w h iv wih iig ps sg,

Nw Dhi hs s h Biig v iv ii w

s ivs is h gis spp h cs

Chis c gi pci. T p is g p h

pps ws h Sh-Nh W s Pc, which

is sch cpi .13 T pcs s c cs

i pgss, h s wi v ii cic

s w p h Ygz Riv i sh Chi h

Yw Riv Bsi i h i h p h c.14

Chis cis ss hv wp h ikih

h ws ivsi h ic i ssci chicchgs. Dspi his ssc, g Ii piicis civiss

hv gviz pic ppsii. h scig piic

si, Pi Miis Mh Sigh Ii iss s

Ags , , sig h Chis s h ss hi h sch

ps w ii. Ahgh Chi s pvi ii hgic

Ii hgh sig w

i M , Sigh hs phsiz h i chis

shig ii s pcs. Chi is c h c wih which Ii shs s iv wih

w-shig g. T Ii ships ppsii

Chis s c s s ccs h hs pcs h

Iis w xpsiv hpw vp ps i h Hi

Bsi, wh s p h Bhp, Ggs,

Is ivs. Ts s, which c hp h cs

hpw siiz h pw spp, highigh hw w

svs h g sc i Ii s w s Chi.15

13

S Sh-Nh W s Pc, Ii Rivs wsiu

hp://www.iiivs.g/cpigs/sh-h-w-s-pc.

14 A Jf Kih Schi, A D Axis Nh Awis Chis Gi Upv Wsp Sch, Cic B, Mch , uhp://www.cic.g/wws//w/---xis-h-wis-chi%E%%s-gi-pv-w-sp-sch.

15 i Nwc, Wi Hi Ds Sv Iis Eg Ws? Pur Mehn,J , u hp://www.ppchics.c/scic/g/hpw-gh/wi-hi-s-sv-iis-g-ws-.


24/200

[ 16 ]

asia polic y

he Need r Frm Certn

I ii Chis ck spc, is sisc ig i

w-shig gs ss h w ipi ss. Ts

, Chis gss w w cpi hv i hic.Sic , Chi hs ci sig UN w-shig h w

pp h hi si ivs wihi is i. Is,

Chi hs csis p gi wih cis i

h h i, hs wig is xi vii

ciiig Biigs pc i gs. Chi s

hv sig w-shig wih is ighig cis.

Acc h pic fcs ci chg, Chis

isis i iig gs hs ics ici w Chis

is ipi ighs.

T w ipi ss p his sii. Chi

hs v iciv wih cis i cs ighig

g ss hs piic wk h gi isiis

Shs Sh Asi, h Asscii Shs

Asi Nis (ASEAN) h Sh Asi Asscii Rgi

Cpi (SAARC). Bcs ASEAN ps csss, h piic

scicic ivsi is ss ih is h

gizis fcivss. ASEANs cisBi, Ci,

Isi, Ls, Msi, M, h Phiippis, Sigp, Ti,

Vi c g wi g

isss, icig ci chg w sci. B cpis, SAARC,

which cpiss Aghis, Bgsh, Bh, Ii, Mivs, Np,

Pkis, Si Lk, ks ASEAN k ik his i.

Spcic, sg iss w Ii Pkis hs hisii ckss. Wih i , gi isiis sch s

ASEAN SAARC c pp iiz hi piic cpi, hs

wkig hi ii ig Chi h giig .

Sutn

iig cics v w igiig i h His,

Chi s csi h ipicis is -vp picis,h wihi si is s. his, Chi wi

ics h spc ig vi sci ipc

sssss pi pc csci. Oh Asi cis s

hv p, s h s p si i isps, ics


25/200

[ 17 ]


g cic h, sk i sc w Chis

vp ps. Ahgh i is kw h g-

ipcs ci chg h Hi wsh, h c

sigs h w vs ppig. Ts, i is vi h h gi gs

wks w shig sigic ipvs cic i

w g g.

Wihi is s, Chis psh xp g cic iiiivs;

k c s cs hgh cspi cps, ig, xs;

ics wi s g vp wi hp ss h

pss w scs g s. Chis picks

s c xisig gs ws h i g

w. Ipvig cic is sig sig hw-g- xs cig i cscisss w

g csvi hgh c gis pic

wss cpigs.

Ii, Chi s shw g gg i

i vs. F xp, i c i h MRC s -g

h h iig ig p h picips

wh vgs. I Sh Asi, i is i Chi sig w

wih Ii. i s, Biig s s k g f ipv spc i -shig i ws ighs

is -csci ps. I ii, Chi sh k h i

wiig gi iscssis w sci hcic

pw ic w s g sch s s wi.

As ps c, i is cssi i Chis s is

cp hs isss, i h Biig is ik

i w-shig gs. I cis hp gg wih

Chi, h wi iiz c sick ppch. T c

wi qi iiiivs h c s h cic s

spsi pig. T sh- sis xchg

pgs gig h Mkg h ivs i h Hi Bsi,

w p gg Chis schs, hpw cpis, ks,

NGOs. T k pig ssi vp h ivs is

gg wih hs skhs. Tis wi qi icig

iivsi w sci s cpig cs i h cic ccs iig. F xp, cc hi g pi hs

s Chis hpw cpis s pig h Hpw

Ssiii Assss Pc, hc ssiii ssss

s gi pc hpw cpis. O h sick si,


26/200

[ 18 ]

asia polic y

gi gizis sch s ASEAN SAARC s p hi i

gs h ck chsiv i.

Pss wi c isi Chi s w. Chis

ciizs civi sci gps sh ci pss cpis

h gv g spc sig p ii s.

Chis ciizs, NGOs, h ws i hv c s

h h c fciv pss h gv ipv vi

pci. Wh sg k Biig ch h Chi i

Dc , Chis ciizs cs hi si

wi sci i. S Chis NGOs v ps i-

qi is hv ciizs ps h gis hzs igs

i gsi ci gv i-qi ps h is h ipi s i . T Chis i ws s high ciic

h gvs i ss h chkig pi. T ciicis

i hsh ws i pig pp h gv k

pic chgs h ic xp iig pig i

ps, sic gs cig c s, sig -

issi ss. Ts, h pps v civic ci,

wihi s, fc pic. Nsc pic-is wsis gis

ps s pig w s ciizs, ws, NGOs sgh vi w c.

C, h w i which w is ig s pcs

pish s. T Ui Nis hs c his h

ii w cpi. I is i Chi k

h is gi iships . Chis picks

h i h hp cv his gi

vi h is i h cic vp, Chi s

g igh.


27/200

[ 19 ]


M h Gp I Sh A

Rbert G. Wrng

N s h h six i ss h Sh AsiAsscii Rgi Cpi (SAARC)Aghis,

Bgsh, Bh, Ii, Np, Pkish c

vi w-sc ps, wih si ig scci

shw kig high g h. Bcs h Sh Asi gi is

c wih s ivs vi h cis hs

ss, w ih h hs ps hv gpiic isi.

T hs vigs g h sc isi his

isi, s x ss ipvk v h

iic w ws. Whi s skpicis is qsi

w i his g, h wigh i pii , cg

s s wigs h ci ci scs,

cgizs h h is c ps g sis is

si cs s w isps.

Aig is h gc ci iis

h gis w cicscs w h vps: hg- c cig csqcs ci chg,

h sh- wis qickig pc Chis

csci s ivs sh wih Sh Asi. U hs

cicscs, w h w xps qsiig whh

Sh Asi hs i pc i i wks q

h sk gig h gis icsig w isci. T c

is is i his gi v h ps w cs fs g

ssc i his g, h c sigs h gvs wkig h h gs w isci h

is cpi i cpig wih h.

he Srt Wter n Suth A

Ev ii spig c xp sis vs pcic

h gi h gis p shw

scci. A s h W Rscs Gp si,

robert g. wirsing is Pss Gv Chi Fc Ggw UivsisSch Fig Svic Q. His s k (c-h) is Interntn Cnt ver WterReure n Hmn A (). H c ch .


28/200

[ 20 ]

asia polic y

xp, h shw i vs pps

iz Ii w gw s . ii cic s

is c w spp. As s, h gp sv, s

Iis iv sis c c sv ci ss cc ci

is k.1 A cphsiv i-i s h w scs

h Is Bsi gv sii i cs. Wih Iis ppi

xpc ppch . ii , Pkiss ik ch

ii h s , h viii w w p

cpi css h si (wih ppi h ii)

c ip w cic s ii cgiz hsh

sv w scci.2

W sc ciis i h Ggs-Bhp-MghBsih ws sc-gs ivi ig siif

sigic hs i h Is Bsi s g

iscig. Ai, c s w scci i

Bgsh cis s cgig ws. Exiig gic

gh h s h ps, h s s h

i s hv h i cs. I s ps h

h h s ivs which ws cch

P/Ggshv chgs i ps hgic ps (sch si, gci , w wig ivsi) cs sigic

vii v i i ss w. Hwv, giv h ipc

h iv shws Bgsh, h ss ig h

% ci i h ss w sic hs x sis

csqcs h cs gw chg gic

pcivi.3

Wh his ss igs highigh is Bgshs xcpi

v shw pc i. T c ws si

.% is sc w --c ivs ig i i

(pii Ii Chi). I h ws, cisis

1 W Rscs Gp, Chig O W F: Ecic Fwks IDcisi-Mkig, , u hp://www.ckis.c/App_Mi/Rps/W/Chig_O_W_F_F_Rp_.p.

2 Is Bsi Wkig Gp, Cnnetng the Dr: An Indu Bn Rdm r Cr-BrderWter Reerh, Dt Shrng, nd P Crdntn (Osv Rsch Fi, SisC, Ssi Dvp Pic Isi, ), , vi hp://www.sis.g/ks-ps/ccig-h-ps.

3 Kisi Hsch, s i Ri Riv Fws: Chgig G Riis? i AshiKs ., W Scci i Bgsh: s Rivs, Cic Cpi,Pc Rsch Isi Os (PRIO), PRIO Rp, , u hp://www.pi./picis/wscci.


29/200

[ 21 ]


ighig gvs piv xci ivsi

hv ipc w sci i Bgsh,

which is xpc gw si ppi ii i

v ii i . Exsiv -iig civi h

iss iis h Ggs, s, Mgh ivs

( Ii) h Bhp Riv ( Chi Ii) ivi

xcs h x vii Bgshs w pc

c v w g whv ipvs Dhk ks i sic

w g.

he Unertnt Wrught b Cmte Chnge

T is csi ci h pc ci chg,

ik vii i h gis ig w isci . I M

h U.S. Ni Ocic Asphic Aiisi (NOAA)

p h h-ppig c ixi gs h ch vg i

v i h sph v ps p ii cci

wiss h v h ii s is wig h

i g fs ci , h fcs ci chg c

ivsi.4

Hwv, h sciic p s wihi s hNOAA p ci h h s x s wig pic

s s pp icsig ss ik.5 Rgss whh h

csqcs ci chg c qick , h is v sg

csss g ci sciiss h h chgshigh ps,

sici, x wh vs, ic ss, isig s vs,

gci wi c v wi sik Sh Asi s s

hsh s h gi i h w. kig gci s xp,

h s s c sis hs Higcis iis h h Hi KshHi (HKH) gis ci

is chgig, h h ivihs v ii pp

p h iv sss wih hws i his gi

fc. T s ccs h ciis i

h pcis css fcs gci , s w s h ip

sgi viis xis i h which gci is ccig.

Nvhss, i cs qivc h sciic vic iics

h gcis i h HKH gi ig s cp hs

4 Jsi Giis, H-ppig Gs Psss Mis, Risig Fs, New Yrk me, M , .

5 Ais D, Ex G Wig S Fh Aw h Pvis Tgh, Rs,M , .


30/200

[ 22 ]

asia polic y

i h ps h w, cs h h hs cc i h

ps c.6 T s ccs h s ps h ci scic

ci iv h h sci fcs ci chg

xsiv h pvis hgh cgiz, ig

qick xsiv h pic.7

he Imtn Dm Budng

Uci, hgh qi if s, s pvis i g

Chis -iig civiis h Bhp (c h Yg

sgp i Chi), h picip iv h Chi shs wih is Sh

Asi ighs. A Chi hs i z s i h

vs i P iis h Bhp; si i

h -gw Zg Hcic Pc is xpc

cp. T pc is h s i csc w

ppv s h ivs is. Biig cis h hs

h iv s h hv ii w sg cpci

hs ik hv sigic ipc ws c-

ipis. Chi s cis h i hs ps iv w

h Bhp wi ws k i cc h iss ws cis.8

Oh svs, hwv, g h Chis csci h

Bhp hs sigic sgic ipicis h h cs

ship is i iif h ws ipc is s.

Fs g hs ciics is Bh Ch, wh is s i Nw

Dhi is h h Wter: A New Bttegrund. Ch gs

h hvig is h Asis w p, Chi is h cqiig

s vg v is ighs hvi.9 Chi w ws g s h h s h w ci s hv

sig w-shig wih ighig s. I is ps h

Bhp w h p p h s ivs,

6 Ci Hi Gcis, Hg, Ci Chg, Ipicis W

Sci ., Hmn Ger: Cmte Chnge, Wter Reure, nd Wter Seurt(Wshig, D.C.: Ni Acis Pss, ).

7 Ii., .

8 W Wi Csi Iss Dws Cis, Ss Chi, Hndu, J , u hp://www.hhi.c/ws/ii/w-wi-csi-iss--ws-cis-ss-chi/ic.c.

9 Bh Ch, W Is h Nw Wp i Biigs A, Fnn me, Ags , .


31/200

[ 23 ]


Ch pics h Chi wi pc i sis v-g

s igh p h wih Ii.10

Oh svs s h sii if, gig h Chis

-iig civi is iv vwhig h c-h

cgii h h cs piic sci sii

hvi p ci cic gwh, which is, i ,

q p vcig h cs ig w g

scciis. Chi is w p, i h ws; is -iig

sp hs wih h pw is g-isiv c,

h wih pic wpisi i ss hgic i

h gi.11

Metng the Ie? Pret r Regn Certn

Whv is ivi, Biigs csis i ppch

csci s ivs, is pci i

g ps sic vic isiiiz w

cpisi s is c-ipis. T is sig

chg i his ppch. I Api , Chi c pps

Ii c w chis xp, w cissi, igv ig, ig wih

w isss w h w cis.12 F x w-p

Bgsh, his is i i ; Ii, , s i

c i is iv vgs w pc i ( .%).

Ev hgh s ch s % h Bhps w wihi Ii cs

w h Si-Ii , wig h hs gis

xii hv s is, h c is h h s

ss is i Ii psssss v s w sg cpci.Accig h F Agic Ogizi, i si

w scs vi s c sh ic gs

10

Bh Ch, Chis G W W: Dig Dws Fw Nighs Cigg W Ws, Whngtn me, Api , .

11 P Kh Khp Hgz, s Rivs i h Hi Ksh-Hi (HKH) Rgi:B h W s Wp Rhic, C Nii Sci (NS) Sis, S.R Sch Ii Sis, NS Isigh, Sp .

12 Chi Spiks Iis Pps Ji Mchis Bhp, Hndu, Api , uhp://www.hhi.c/ws/i/chi-spiks-iis-pps--i-chis--hp/ic.c.


32/200

[ 24 ]

asia polic y

ss w w,13 sch si w i ss sgi ig

Chis ii vg is c h Bhps ws.

Chis pp cc v i h ici w

spc i chiss w g is i

ck gi cpi w sci. Y h i

sg sigs h Sh Asi gvs hsvs icsig

ici cp his iss. I Api , Np, Ii,

Bgsh g ip g i xpi hpw

g w scs vg, spci i h Ggs

Riv Bsi.14 Likwis, h Bgshi pi iis Shikh Hsi

ps visi Nw Dhi i Dc w f g

w-shig g v h s Riv. T iiiiv ws - w i Sp wh h chi iis Ws Bg

p h -kig xcis h s i. Dsic

piics i h cisicig psss Bgshi s

pp ssvi Nw Dhi psss Mh Sigh

sh i cvsi g Iis i cis i

ss h ikig wi s.

Wih spc cpi w Ii Pkis w

sci, h Is Ws (IW) hs sviv v hc, icig h whig w ss is ics

w cic-si pvisis. T s s cc Iis

Bgih Hcic Pc h Ch Riv i isp Kshi.

I ppi xp g Nw Dhi s wh i

w, icig xsiv ww pvisis shig si. T

sc isp, si i pgss, is v Iis Kishgg Hcic

Pc i h Jh Riv, s i Kshi. I F

h C Aii i h Hg iss pi ig wig

Ii pc wih csci h , which wi iv w

h Kishgg Riv (c h N Riv i Pkis) h

i h Jh. O g ipc, hwv, h c

h ww si shig w h -sg v i h

vis h IW h Ii, i i wishs cp h pc, s

sig h . Aii, h c psp i Dc

13 G S Asi: W Rscs, F Agic Ogizi, AQUASA u

hp://www..g//w/qs/cis_gis/si/pi.s.

14 S Mhi, Np, Ii & Bgsh Mk Ms Gg W, Hpw,Hndu, Api , u hp://www.hhi.c/ws/ii/sh-si/p-ii-gsh--k-s--gg-w-hpw/ic.c.


33/200

[ 25 ]


cisi h s ii w i ws Pkis ig h

ss, sipi iq pciv h ivi vi

s iiciv h Ii hv w h i h

s h w v h p i c i.15

O hp h h C Aiis cisi wi cs Ii

Pkisi s csi pig w ppch g

h Is Bsis w scs h w g w s cciv

sc h ipv h i gi.16 Sii, i h wk

i ps h Ii xpis hs f Aghis

hp i iig s s wv hpw pcs h K

Riv, which is ig pspc Pkiss pspciv,

hp h Agh Pkisi s wi giv hgh IW-ikg his s-wig i h Is.17

Dvps hs ss, i h hpp, w sig h g-

wi ik gci i h Hisi wc

ig h gpiic ic i Sh Asi. Ev i w chs isg

wigs h h gi is icsig isk is w ws,

h isk sigs pi gwig w isci v

siss s s cpcc. Rpcig p igi his

i ci wih cpiv i i w-shigiiiivs wi pv ig. B sig c xisc

h hs iis pp p h Hi gis

s iv ws s ss.

15 Jh Bisc, Wiig h B B Lsig h W, Hndu, F , u hp://www.

hhi.c/pii//wiig-h---sig-h-w/ic.c.16 Ls C Mizig Is W , Aic Cci, Api , u hp://www.cs.g/pi/.

17 Khi Ms, Ii Hp Aghis Bi Ds K Riv, New Interntn,M , u hp://www.hws.c.pk/PiEii.spx?ID=&C=&; Gii Bkshi, Mich Kg, Ah R A, Big Ov Ws,me Ind, Dc , u hp://ics.isi.iiis.c/--/i-pg/__s-is-w--w-sci.


34/200

[ 26 ]

asia polic y

H W S: A Sh A Pp

uhr Shh nd Mrk Grdn

Sh Asi hs g ig c cs s h si cic sh ivs. T gi is p

pi , p, gi sciis. Whi i c s

Ii hs shwcs s gig cic pw, h s

Ii cic gwh hv i cc i h sh

ws s. R ppis i s Ii, Np, Pkis,

Bgsh ci hv high cci pv. Psis

gi pv hs high si v sh ivs. Cc is

s gwig g Sh Asi ss h Chis qi pi

xpig -iig civi i h Hi gi wi ics

piic sis i Sh Asi, pi ig cic.

Tis ss xps h i scs w- sis

w Ii Pkis i h Is Bsi w Ii Np

Bgsh i h Ggs Bsi. T ss s viws h

scs sis g hs Sh Asi ighs. I h iscsss

w gig ccs h pi ipc Chis civiis ii h w ipi ss i Sh Asi.

he Imrtne Wter Shrng

Ahgh w ws , i v, k pc w i-ss,

w c p ip i piic cic sis.

Fw gis i h w h s ch is si s Sh

Asi. Pkis Ii w w, is si si wih v sip sp iks sv sic. Dspi

h c h Ii hp Bgsh gi is ipc, h w

cis si hv ps, icig shig h ws h Ggs,

s, h ivs. Ovchig hs isps is h pcpi

Ii s h gi hg. Iis cis w isss hs

viw is ighs wih sspici. Aig is his ix is

Chis gwig s s Hi ws.

tushaar shah is Si Fw h Ii W Mg Isi i C. Hc ch .

mark giordano is Picip Rsch L W Sci Rsch h IiW Mg Isi i C. H c ch .


35/200

[ 27 ]


Dspi hs sis, w cs h is Sh Asi ic

wih ch h. N h w i Pkis, Np, Bgsh,

Bh cs iv sh wih s h Sh Asi s.

Ev i Ii, wh h g Dcc P is hgic v

h s h sci, v % w scs sh.

Tis w is cci ivs ivihs i Sh Asi. T gi is

g h s pp i h w, wih siis gig ss

h pp p sq ki i h ws Sh Asi v

, i Ii Bih Bgsh. Whi Ii hs cgiz

s gig cic pw, i, ik h gi s wh, is

pi , p, gi. T Ggs-Bhp-

Mgh Bsi cvig s Ii, Np, Bgsh hs Sh Asis pv sq, wih ssi pp w

h -p- pv i h i h cis s-Sh

Aic ci.1 T is ch Sh Asis gwh hv i

sh ws Ii ws ciishs g sppi

s ws.

Obte t Wter Shrng

Chenge n the wet. Wh Ii Pkis w i ,

h w c css g-sish iigi sss h

Is iis h h. I h W Bk cii h

sigig h Is W (IW) w h w cis,

which Ii, s h pp ipi, c % Is ws Pkis

(ppxi ii cic s) kp h iig %

is hws pis. Whi ssi sis i, h IW hs

sviv h c h ws w h ighs. Isis s cc h Nw Dhi igh s w s

piic hs chg v v Ii k v

IW-ppv --h-iv hpw gi pcs. Ts

s wig w is wih cig sppis

ws ss. G Ashq Ki Pkis hs ci w

s h sici his Ii-cic ii sc.2 I Ii, , h

is gwig , spci i J Kshi, pi

iis Jwh Nhs gsi i ciig, i c,

1 W Bk, Wrd Devement Indtr 2009 (Wshig, D.C.: W Bk, ).

2 Uqch Tis, Enmt, Nv , u hp://www.cis.c//.


36/200

[ 28 ]

asia polic y

h k h Is w Pkis wh Iis w hws is

pi pch. Ii is s s cs, s w ipi

h Bhp Riv, i hs civ wh h s csi

sps is pp ipi igh, Chi.

Te rbem n the et. Whs h pi w iss i h ws is

scci, i h s i is c. Cig h ii cic s

w i h Ggs Riv Bsi pss iq ppi

hpw gi i Np c i Ii Bih

Bgsh. T chic p Ii Bgsh is h h

pis h w Ggs Bsi f sis sig w. Ds i

Np c i sig gigws hpw ( is h

cs c hpw cpci) pvi c hw ipi ss cs vi, sci, piic

cc. F xp, gs sig Np Ii ig h

i-s h Ksi Gk iis p gwi is

si h iship w h w cis cs isss

cpsi .

Tis si ws v wiig h gs

c ss Npi ccs. Whi s pgss hs

, ch c i Nps i piics w siiz Nw Dhi c ssg s h csci igh iig

Npi svig pii Ii. Ii w ks ch pi

i wh i viws s wi-wi ci wih Bh hpw

gi. Bh w s v % is pi gwig GDP

hpw ss Ii.3 Sii ci wih Np c pc

cp s, h w cis hv c h Np-Ii

Ji Miisi Lv Cissi W Rscs. Hwv,

cpi w Ii Bh s g Ii

gi Bhs ig s fis. Assig h

pciv h svig wi css w cpi

c piic vi i Np.

As h ws ipi s i h Ggs-Bhp-Mgh Bsi,

Bgsh is s sscpi ig. Y v i h ws

s w-w cis, w scci hs g s pi

cc i h ss. Wh Ii csc h Fkk Bg iv pi h Ggs ws Cc p, sis i

3 S Si, Bhs Mvig G: Hw W Is Pwig h C, CNN, Nv ,u hp://www.c.c////w/si/h-g-g.


37/200

[ 29 ]


p i Bgsh c piic phv. U ,

Ii hs pis ii w-ss ws h Fkk Bg

Bgsh. Whi h cc s sishs chis

shig w svig isps, Iis c ck c hs cs

Bgsh csi h h sig s cs

iss h gi pw. I Sp , Ii pi iis

Mh Sigh i k sii ci Bgsh

h s i. Hwv, h w c chi iis Ws

Bg, M Bi, ipp h pps s cc i h

h s , g ssig h Ii pi iis.

Chn. T ph i h Sh Asi wig , hwv, is

Chi, which psssss ii c v h vs i P, hws gs psi shw. Uhi h s h

ppis swh wihi is w s, Chi hs k

h w pcs h p. Tis ggssiv iig

hs h ws ipis i Shs AsiVi,

Ls, Ti, Civs. Whi ciig i

s ps h Mkg Sw ivs, Chi is s w

wkig v g hcic iv-ivsi schs h

Yg sgp Riv, kw s h Bhp Riv i Ii.Biig vs i is c pcs. Accig

svs, hwv, Chi hs csc s iis

h pp Bhp, wih csci Dg, Jich,

Jix. I is s cscig -gw Zg s p

p i s h Bhp h iv s Ii.

Ms wis Nw Dhi is gigic -gigw hpw pc

h Chi is pig h g M, wh h Bhp

ps , s i Ii.

Uik h c-ipis i Sh Asi, wh hv s chiss

i pc iscssig giig w isss, Chi ss iscss

sch chiss. Dspi high-v Ii cis hvig p

is hi ccs Chis iig h Bhp

is pssi ipcs Ii, Biig hs s picip i

igv ig, i w cissi,

iscss h ci wih h w isss w h wcis. As h pp ipi s, Chi hs i h ps v s

pvi s w Ii w ss s. I

J ch i ps i i is h Bhps

w vs i Ach Psh ssiv s, vig


38/200

[ 30 ]

asia polic y

, hss. Tis g c hv ci i Chi h

Ii. Is, Biig s v ckwg h s

hs h v. Sii c ss xcss w

Chi s cs sh s i Hich Psh i , , .

Bgsh, s h ws ipi s h Bhp, wi h

iig Chi i i ( Ii i Ach Psh)

hs v ss ic h Ii i his w pppii

vp h ivs vs pi.

Wht Cud the Future Hd?

O sc ipv s w gvc

wihi Sh Asi is piic ii. N h Sh Asi c-ipis,

Ii ic, hv sg, s, c gvs cp

kig g-, ipic viw ppiis s w s hs. A

sc p is si iis, cp wih s Ii s

hg. A cs i pi is Iis csci .-hc pic

Nps i i h w kp. U h g,

Ii f Np iigi , hc gws pw

p s cpsi. B h Npi ppsii s h s ici ig w h gv. Tis i sic

Nps csii qiig w-his i i h pi

sig w wih Ii.

A i cpi hs h ic i isgig

w isps h i ps isssciig h

i piic sggs. Discssis w sci w

Ii Bgsh ic isss sch s h Bgshi

ig ix i Iis hs, Chk gs, ps s, isg gps i Iis hs. T s cc i i

w hv high v Bgsh ws f

Dhks spp i cpig w w h s h isg

gps i Iis hs gi h p Bgsh.

Y, s i v, h ws cs s piics

wihi Ii. Ngiis w Ii Pkis w sci

vis c h ii isp i Kshi

g-sig iss, whi Nps isciis s -ck s

p Ii si p i is iscssis

wih Ii. A h cisBgsh, Pkis, Npsh

i c iss chiss Ii s h gi hg.


39/200

[ 31 ]


Ii, i , is s i is ps s wih Chi, which

xciss c v hs iis ps h hws h

ivs h w i h sci.

Wh c ? Wihi Sh Asi, h v ipv

i is w sp w h ipv w

sci. B sic w sci c s cs cpi, i

p ws i iii cpi i his s sp

i svig h ps. S i piics wi s qi

s h h c cisis s ipc hv

sic spp i piic s. O psiiv

vp is h gwig ppi ck iscssis civi sci

vs, wh gv ps, wih pw i gv-v giis, f p s i givcs xp sis

h c piic.

O h sc s, igig Chi h pps

h s vxig scs w sci i h Hi gi. T

sigs, hwv, h h i chg h. Chi is

Iis gs ig p, hi cis gw. Hig

his iship w cic isss h cis. Li

Kqig s Ii his s ig visi s Chis pi iis,wih h s pps iig s cpi. Gwig

cic ipc i h Hi gi f h

s chc wi-wi si gi w isss.


40/200

[ 32 ]

asia polic y

Hp D h M: O D, N D

Rhrd P. Crnn

, h Mkg Riv Bsi is h g w-pg cis s h h g- - cis hs

gvs. O h w, sh- cis sch s si, h

ssi cspi gw, h csci g

si-ppig s hvig ii ipc h g

wig, s-v is, h g qc vi wh vs.

Ts - cis gvsspci h csci

ssiv cscs g s h Mkg is

iis ccig giig h w ivi g-

fcs g wig ci chg, spci s-v is.

T c h h i-givig cg h ws s

pciv shw sh ss g-sig s

xpiig h ivs v ss, is, ich vi psis,

hpw pi s sis cic vp

isiizi. Bcs h vi -fs g g,

sci (shig gic), h ss w, hs s i wih cpiv, si-wi ppch

s sigic sc g gi pc sii.

As p is iii- g ws vp pg, Chi

hs s is cs xpi h hg hpw pi h pp

Mkg Riv, which i cs h Lcg, wih csii

h iss ccs is ws ighs. Biig gs h

pp Mkg s is i iv s ii vp

ps, pi s, v h v is svis s isci scs.

T ws ipc Chis s i Y Pvic h

w, Shs Asi h h iv c h vsi. Dspi

h c ccig pc GDP gwh hgh h iv si,

s iis pp, i i Ti, Ci, Vis

Mkg D, si p h ivs ch hi

ivihs. T svis Chis Y s, w which

g h ws gs, gh hv h cpci s s

richard p. cronin is Dic h Sis Cs Shs Asi Pg MkgPic Pc. T viws xpss h his w cssi ps hs hSis C. H c ch .


41/200

[ 33 ]


h h vg ischg h pp Mkg. I ii

sigic chgig h ivs hg, h csc wi p

si % h hisic i-ich si wig Chi,

h cig h ii h si ws ciig h

isi sw i h Mkg D.1

Ahgh h gvs h s v w Mkg

cis icsig w h h ps Chis Y

csc, h hv shw h piic wi c v hi w

isg w, k sis f ic Biig.

Vi hs g cscig g s iis

h Mkg i h C Highs. Ci is wig h p

sci is ss s pi gic. T MkgBsi cis qiis i s , ivs, isc

s sch h h c p chg Biig, spci

wh if vs h Chis gv hv c h

ws ciicis wi Chi psig is gs.

Revved Pn r Dm n the Lwer Mekng

Ev csqi h h ipc h Chis s h ivs w si s, h ssiv w sg cpci

hi w h s (Xiw Nzh) hs h viv

p ig h C W ig h w Mkg.

Ni h s w csc cci vps h

L (sv) L-Ti (w) schs h is, wih w

i Ci. A h p s w g, gig

s high, wih cpiv s svi sg

cpci. T s wi ci hs spcis sh cs s h ig g iscs spw wi p ii si

h c w Chi.

Biig h w Mkg s wi s c w pi

v cs pc Biig. Uss Chi ss gh w i

h ss, s, i , h pps s w

g pw ig h is hs h . I igh Chis

gwig w cisis h ipc ci chg, i is h

1 Ii C Evi Mg (ICEM), Sgic EviAssss Hpw h Mkg Mis: Fi Rp, Oc , uhp://www.ckg.g/-h-c/pgs/iiiiv--ssi-hpw/sgic-vi-ssss--is-s.


42/200

[ 34 ]

asia polic y

qsi h s pi i h Biig c v h w-

g -f wihh w sis h high pii s.

T pps w Mkg s cci pcs h

wi i, w, p s Ti Chis cpis

s, wih Tis s-w cic ii s h i

cs. T p L s hv c s cvs

ivvig vi h ighs gizis

c civi sci gps s sg ppsii h Vis

Ci gvs.2

Indequte Inttutn Frmewrk r Wter Certn n the

Mekng Bn

Efs p cpiv ssi g w

scs hv si w ss ps. O s is piic

pschgics gig c cv svig, vs

ifcs cic vp ii pw, ggph

(ps vss ws cis). T h is h pcic

ipssiii qi iviig vpig sh w sc

whs is pcivi qic i gic isp h ic sig -ps hg h hs

vv v iis s.

T Mkg Riv Cissi (MRC), hq i Vii,

Ls, pvis isii chic cpiv w

g s hv cisi-kig hi is w.

Rh, h MRC sci wks h hi h i

Mkg cis Ci, Ls, Ti, Vi. Ts

cis, i , chi cis h iisis scs vig h wks iisis i v

h gvs.

T Xi D i h Ls, which wi s % is p

Ti, pvi h s s h MRCs Pcs Nici,

Pi Csi Ag (PNPCA). T c ws g s

isppiig s c is c ii ciics.

Iii, MRC ig i Api , wig h

h six-h viw pi psci h PNCPA, Vi

2 Ahgh is ppsii h L s ss icsis, h Ci gv hs cisi pps h S. T cisi c ic wh hpps ps i Ls.


43/200

[ 35 ]


Ci ( Ti, pi) k ccpig h pc

cc h ws ipc shis, si ppig,

ivihs. Ts h sis isks ciis

is s h is sgic vi viw h

h ci xp css h MRC s i

Oc .3

I M h L gv g ssp h pc

w h sis cs sg ppsii h gvs

Vi Ci, i ii civi sci ppsii i hs

cis Ti. Bcs wk si ppi h ci

wih ipi, i c s i spis wh, wih sg Ti

ckig, h L gv c i Nv h h pcw g h. T gvs cis h ws cis h

ss s si c giig chgs wih

sg isvws v Vis Ci cis. T

c is qsi h h MRC

h pspcs cpiv w vp g.

Ah wk Mkg Bsi cpi, h G Mkg

Sgi (GMS) ws iii h Asi Dvp Bk h

h Ci civi w i . Cpisig six Mkg cis,4h GMS is iii- isc vp pc h

is iig cis wih ipv s, igs, is

gi cic gi ikig h ciis h Lw Mkg Bsi

ch h Kig, h cpi cic h Chis

Y Pvic. U, cpiv g h iv h

givs h gi is is p h GMS g. Chi s

h w Mkg cis hpp hv ipv spi

iks hv w giv p i svig wh i cs

hi schs h iv.

he Obm Admntrtn Lwer Mekng Inttve

I h O iisis cisi ch h Lw

Mkg Iiiiv (LMI) c Wshigs sis cc h

ci cpiv w g i h Lw Mkg

Bsi, s w s h gwig gpiic ic Chi. T LMI

3 ICEM, Sgic Evi Assss Hpw h Mkg Mis.

4 T G Mkg Sgi cpiss Ci, Ls, M, Ti, Vi, Chi (Y Pvic h Ggxi As Rgi).


44/200

[ 36 ]

asia polic y

w h Ui Ss ii cv cis p cpci-

iig. Ci, Ls, Ti, Vi, ssq M

c h ppi ivsi hi scs ipic

vp spp.

T LMI ws v i c h wk

gi cpi, is ig vgs $ ii

. Hwv, h iiiiv cps h MRC i w ws. Fis, h

MRC cis M ch ccp spsiii ( i

Tis cs, w) h LMI pis, which ic ci, hh,

vi w scs g, gi ccivi.

Ts igs ivv if iisis, s pppi h pic

pi iscssi, whs h MRC ivvs h iisis scs h vi. Sc, h LMI qis high-

v piic gg cs h Ui Ss .5 I h Mkg

gi, h LMI is h s sigic ii h O

iisis cisi c U.S. ii sss Asi h

ws Pcic.

Lt Chne r Certve Wter Devement n the Lwer

Mekng Bn

Gwig ci v cscig is s h w

Mkg is cig w ivisis i gi si cvig cs

i cic hig h v i sh iv sh

. Ts , Ls hs pc is g cig h

Shs Asi v is ci h spii h

Mkg Ag h PNPCA pcss. Likwis, Ti,

h sg p-siss gv Yigck Shiw, hs ph g ivsiig is scs g v is is i sppig

i cpi g h MRC cis, is phsizig

i is. I h cs Ls, h gv hs c is

cisi g h wih w s: Pk Bg i h h D

Shg Kh Fs h wih Ci. T L gv

hs si h i wi si h Pk Bg D PNPCA viw

h D Shg D. T , hgh spig h i iv,

5 T O iisi s cs h wv-c s-Pcic Pship s ip ii spc is cig w Asi, spci giv Vispicipi. T giis, hwv, w iii h Ui Ss s ic Ws Hisph s (C, Chi, Mxic, P).


45/200

[ 37 ]


wi ck h s ip ch hgh h s sh igi.

Uss h MRC is c fciv PNPCA viw h

pcs, Ls is spsiv ws cis, sis

wi ci is.

O pssiii ig h c ivi w giig

csss g h xi ccp s ipc

is s ki Mkg s. D gh h w

ci w-p s h Sgic Evi Assss

w s ii ics ssssig h s ipcs

iivi s h civ ipcs iv scis

i- cscs. T ig civ sch g

w s h vp h w Mkgs hpwpi ccs i ci qi shi h xiizs

h s iiizs h s css cgi

s. Sch g w wih pc. T

Mkg Ag qis h is ivsis

i wih ccp ii -ss ws

ss vs ws i h Sp.

T ne qu nn ch, qi, ssi

hpw vp w h csci pw gi ih Lw Mkg Bsi. A gi ikig h MRC cis (

hic v M Chi) w k i pssi c

csci h Ls, wh h iv is w shis

ss ip, vi h ch g ipc shis

gic s i sh Ls Ci. A i

gi pw cis c p cii csvi

ss which h c is g scp, spci i Ti

h g scs. T Sgic Evi Assss

si h i h p is s w i, h w

sis %% h si pw i h Lw Mkg

Bsi h qiv s ics i

h Ls w gi % h pw

(i vs vi h pw css) h v s.6

6 F h ppss ccig h pc cic pw p, h sgicvi viw s ic wh pc h is w ivsi, . A hvi, scicic, h ipcs ii h vi viw wcc h sis igh Chis s v w Mkg s. S ICEM, SgicEvi Assss Hpw h Mkg Mis, .


46/200

[ 38 ]

asia polic y

Ci, which w ps s is- gs,

c pchs pw h gi.

Ui, ih h MRC h GMS c fciv p

cpi ssi vp wih h qisi piic wi.

Uwiig, h c h MRC cis hs piiiz

ki i is v hi sh is i gi

cpi piz ip isci cgiz

is i gi pc sii.


47/200

[ 39 ]


C Ch W S h H R

Rhrd Mtthew

h hgic ss h Hi gi, p which s. ii pp p, is s sss.1 Expc chgs

i w viii c h h gis gic cis,

pc pss pi gwig s, ips csis

cic vp, pi ic pic hh chgs,

cp gvs s scc s g isss, ci

cpi, isii kw, vi cic if

scs. Picis h ig h cis i his gi

gh ss h cs csig w sss, s h w scs

w sss g gw g, g h ig

sci fcs his p.

Cue Wter Stre

W sss pic s ci i h spp

w s p cpi, p hc , sis

h cp wih g vg wih c pc .

W sss iss s scci, gh, ig. Ppi

gwh cis his p, i is h pc h

cs s w, s ci chg.2 Accig h

ps h Igv P Ci Chg (IPCC), h

p h p is icsig, ic shs i

gcis ig, s vs isig, h ps i-is

cig i, h high w is cig w, hqc isi s, ghs, wis icsig.3

1 I s h Hi gi ps h cpssig h g, g igs Asih Kk, Hi, Hi Kshh Aghis hgh

Pkis Ii Chi g wih h i P h Ii sci, which sp hs i gs which p w wig h.

2 Kh Pz, T G Hi Wsh: W Shgs, Mg-Pcs Evi Piics i Chi, Ii, Shs Asi,A-P Jurn, . ().

3 S. S, D. Qi, M. Mig, Z. Ch, M. Mqis, K.B. Av, M. ig, H.L. Mi,s., Cntrbutn Wrkng Gru I t the Furth Aement Rert the IntergvernmentPne n Cmte Chnge (Cig: Cig Uivsi Pss, )u hp://www.ipcc.ch/picis__//wg//cs.h.

richard matthew is Pss Ii Evi Piics i h Schs Sci Ecg Sci Scic ig Dic h C Ucvi SciAfis h Uivsi CiiIvi. H c ch .
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


48/200

[ 40 ]

asia polic y

B vi is ggph, h Hi gi is pic v

h ipc ci chg. T is i p h

hs high h h g vg, his is xpc

ci. Gci is ccig v qick i h s

c His, high vis his is xpc s i

sigic ci s w. A w vis, ci chg

is ik fc h iig, ci, v h s i

sigic ws. Whi h is ch ci, h vic cpi

scis gi h g ci chg.

Sc, ccig c sis si sig

cis i gvii c h hs sc, h h Sh

Asi sci h i P, which h Hi, HiKsh, Kk i gs ivi, sig gw.

Whi ci chg igh fc h pish s scks

gw, hi cii s isi

isig s vs, gw ss is i vs

iigi. Tis is cssic g h cs sci, i which

h s-sc ssi cis iivis ggg i

s cciv sss. Pkis, xp, which is v i

c, ps gw h % is iigi is spci ssiiv his .4

Ti, h cpicig s, i c s cis

h sis h His hv vp ps hs w

s, i hcic pw s s svis hg gis

gh.5 A Asis ivsicig h Bhp, Ggs,

Is, Iw, Mkg, Sw, Ygz, Ywigi i

hs is, s h gi css h Chis i i.

T ps s hcic pw pi, g s

ivi ips g sci vi csshssig sc

ws, ispcig pp, fcig iv si ws, sig

his. S ss cc h h ipcs ci chg

w hv c sci i sig. F xp,

s g s s gci ks sf

high h s vpi svis w

4 Sii K, Us W Agic i Pkis: Expics Chgs (psi h Cc h F W F, Uivsi Nsk, Lic, M ,)u hp://sch../vs/w/pp/SKNsk.p.

5 M. i Sik K. M Ehi, Evi Dgi G WigCsqcs Hi Mg Ds: A Rviw,Amern Jurn Envrnment Prtetn, . (): .


49/200

[ 41 ]


ps. Bcs h chp p, s pvi

hs s, ci chg c

ic sv his cci. Oh ss w h Chi

hv hi g is s h gis w scs cc.

O w-kw ci, xp, is h i Chi is h

Yg sgp Riv i i, Biig wi iv his w h p

Sh-Nh W Divsi Pc. Tis is w h c ws i

h Bhp Riv is cci is hh, s w s h w

scs Sh Asi.

Outk r Wter Seurt n the Hmn Regn nd

Ortunte r Certn

Ci chg, ssi gw s, ps

hs w s ci c p ig pic

ic hgic chg. I h ws-cs scis h sci

csqcs vsig. T six i cis his gi

vps Mpcs N Disss Risk Ix

(Pkis is h, Ii is h, Chi is h, Aghis is h)

h F Pcs Fi Ss Ix (Aghis is h, Pkis ish, Np is h).6 Rc sis, sch s h Ni Ac

Scics p Hmn Ger: Cmte Chnge, Wter Reure,

nd Wter Seurt, visi chgs i w viii ig

ppi ispc, gic shig sss, iss ks,

cic h c c vi spi v s is.7Ts

fcs xpc spci sv ws cisi..,

cis h h Chi. S fcs c. F xp,

s i Ii fc h w si i Bgsh. Tis si isciic iiig h Ss s s i gis ig;

s siig cis, ig wss h h css .

O cs, fcs ci. Vis h h

, sch s chgig c cv, c hv ic s

fc h gis hg. H pivss igi igh

pv sci gi s s g vi ws-cs cs. B

c s pvi sis pic cpcc. T i s h

6 Asi Ms Risk N Disss, IRIN, M , u hp://www.iiws.g/p/; Fi S Ix, Fig Pic F F Pc, u hp://www.igpic.c/i_ss_ix__iciv.

7 S Ni Rsch Cci, Hmn Ger: Cmte Chnge, Wter Reure, nd WterSeurt(Wshig, D.C.: Ni Acis Pss, ).


50/200

[ 42 ]

asia polic y

gi cig i, p is isig s h h g

vg, ig is cig q is, gcis

shikig, h s is chgig i s iig, ci,

isi. U, whi w ccs h s s

h ii pp i h gi, i h c i h

c g, his piics ivi h, hs ivisis

p. I h s c , xp, vi cic hs pg

Aghis, Bgsh, Bh, B, Ii, Kshi, Pkis, Np,

Si Lk.

Si, h Hi hgic ss gs sg gi

g isiis. T g ivs h igi i i

Kshi w i Aghis, Bh, Chi, Ii, Np PkisS his w vs h sh s h Mkg Riv ss

i B, Ci, Ls, Ti, Vi. U,

cpi g hs cis hs g ci

ifciv. T is i i p i his g.

T ws hik h pspcs cpi.

Csi sch hs cs h ipc g pw,

hg, h is wiig pvi ch h ig

cpi. I his cs, h vi c is Ii, Nw Dhihs s iships wih Iis cis pic

ss i Shs Asi, hs cpig w ig

i gi iss, cs csi sic chgs

s h c sks ipv h ivig ss gh ii

pp. As hgic pw, cpi c v ic

sish ii. I his cs, h is g cs, s

which hv v i ici wih ch h. Fh, h

s cpi, s i h sh , i c

g i i cig. Ts ciis h iig

gis high vs cpi.

Wih h ii ciis h ic gi

cpi, i is phps spisig h xisig isiis, sch

s h Sh Asi Asscii Rgi Cpi (SAARC), hv

i i h sph w g. SAARC, xp, hs

pc p h gis vi chgs, sish w chic g cis, p h Tiph

S Ci Chgs cis wih i gi fc.

I pic hicpp s csss-s gizi h

vis h cis s i cic, sch s h


51/200

[ 43 ]


h Is Riv w Pkis Ii. SAARC s c

i chivs i cic sci igi, which

h s isss iiz gi i cpi, cs hs

hv s.

Ahgh vig h ss q fciv gi cpi

qick pcss, h is vis x sp h sh k.

Wh, pgph, s hv h Hi gi v

ic s. M qsis i hw his iq

hs g wig i h ps hw xc ci chg is pig

. B is ciic g sig pic i,

s w s isc sig sci pi. I his g,

h Ii C Ig Mi Dvp, c iKh, c igs gh igh cis h gi c

sch sh kwg.8 T gizi fs p

xpig gi hgic scic h sh c i p.

Expig h gis pisic ci sciiss g

sh sig h chcisics gwig w

sss sh ci ig ci, fciv, qi

sis. I igh s cg spc i h s, sch s

csci, wh ipc ii iss ki si.T Ui Ss c spp h ip sciic cpi,

sh is xpics wih gi cpi, s is g chic

ipic scs cg pciv piic

iships. T c Ni Rsch Cci p Hmn

Ger: Cmte Chnge, Wter Reure nd Wter Seurt () is

g xp hw h U.S. sciic ci c c wih

c sciiss hc ssis i sig h gis w sss.9

Tgh ii i ws, h h Ui Ss igh

xp i i w p is phsic psc i h gi. S

vis sgis w cg Aic ss s

, spci i Chi Ii; spp ivsi-s sch

ci; p sci piss h hv U.S. picipi

ssig ip gi isss sch s h s ici

ck svs, which vs qiis ck c i h gis i.

8 T igh SAARC s Aghis, Bgsh, Bh, Ii, Mivs, Np, Pkis, Si Lk.

9 Ci Hi Gcis, Hg, Ci Chg, Ipicis WSci ., Hmn Ger: Cmte Chnge, Wter Reure, nd Wter Seurt(Wshig, D.C.: Ni Acis Pss, ).


52/200

[ 44 ]

asia polic y

Ui, hwv, cig w sss i h Hi gi

wi p h sigh ci k gi cis

ik Chi, Ii, Pkis. Sciic ci c

his pcss, piic piv sc ship s

iiz s. T gi is ckig w ws-cs sci

w gic is, q is isss,

ppi ispc, pic hh scks, cic v ccss

w scs. U, ps gi cpi, sch

s SAARC, pvi i sis piis. A his pi, i is c

h Chi, Ii, Pkis c vc piic ifcs h

hv psis sic h pii i fciv sis

hi sh w chgs. Kshi, h si vi cic i, , , w g p sv qick, iig

s ig h is ckig g isss. A i

v wih piz ppi, pi gig shw, chic

i, cs s, cpig visis wh is sh

, phps Kshi c g ipc s

ii pc pk wih high v piic . pp

h iv gis, hwv, i ss s si xpic

h cgic vic i h s h. Si, ccsch i- i Is wi ig h vis pis gh,

phps s g ws wi g h ig.


53/200

[ 45 ]


S h H h W A:A E Pp

Jnt Bnddh

h cci is s h cs pvis gvs shw s h sg si his vicss svic c h spci i w s h

Ui Nis Cc Evi Dvp i .1

Tis ss sss h h His s h pvi cci

shw sppis g pp h h i

g i h w. T ss s scis h c-hg h

Hi gi, h s xi h h Hi

ivs i Asis cic gphic gwh. I ccs

zig h cgic ipiv ssiig h Hi ws.

Hmn Wter: An E-hdrg Bkgrund

I s h pp wh p sch w ws

hi sviv w-ig, h His h s ip.

T Hi gi, cpssig h Hi Ksh is h

i P, sps h . ii sq kis

sp css Aghis, Bh, Chi, Ii, M, Np,

Pkis. T gi ss sw ic h wh s i h

w si h w ps hs is pp kw s h hi

p.2 Ciig h highs is h w, h His c

s g i g sphic cici. T Ii s

s h Es Asi s ic i his vi

pvi g pi h w spp Asi. ivs

g h Hi gi, kig i cci cgic f.

Ts ivs ic h Yw Ygz, which g h

1 F h iscssi h is s h w ws h w i h gshw spp, s J Bph, W ws h W, Pee nd the Pnet:Pee nd Muntn, Pnne Dvert, . ()u hp://i.ici.g/c//s/.p.

2 S Wh Is h Ti P? Ii C Ig Mi DvpFi (ICIMOD)u hp://www.ici.g/?q=.

jayanta bandyopadhyay is Avis Ecsss Li h Ii Ui Csvi N i Nw Dhi Fw wih h Ii Chi Isi h Nw Sch iNw Yk. H c ch .


54/200


55/200

[ 47 ]


Hmn Wter Inut r the An Enm Grwth

Whi iigi is h picip w s i Asi, i

c cs h Hi ivs hv s hp pw h gis high

s cic gwh, pic i gig isips Chi Ii. isig , gvs iii

k siss-s-s ppch gig w spp. Chi hs

k g-sc pc s w h Ygz Riv

i h sh h h, whi Ii g ig ik w-ich ivs

wih hs i i s. T h s pcs i Chi, hgh

h hi i h pvic Sich hs iiz . T ikig

pc i Ii hs cc s ivs, h sc h s is

si v high. T civ ipc i ivsi pcs

w iv ws qick cs vi gi

h ss css svics. W qi wi w

qi ws sic c. F xp, h w h ivs

i Chi, h Yw, i p h ii w h Bhi S

g pis.7 T Ggs, Iis h ivs, is w p

s is gci s, spi i ig h Ii

gv cig i. T sii is sii i Bgsh, Np,

Pkis.

T p shw scci cs ciic wh

pc w qis csi. I , w

i Chi wi ch h , ii cic s (c) i h

siss s s ppch, whi c w is ps

s. Sii, i Ii h is ps , c s w,

whi is pc ch , c i . T ci

pi cic gwh ipv i h qi i i Asi hsps ssiig h vi sppis shw ivig

sc-ci cic ph. Tis pss g chg

w scic, giig, pic, spci i h gis w gs

cic sgs cis, Chi Ii.

T gc h v civs cs s c wh h

pi ipcs g wig ci chg h ws h

Hi ivs csi. Accig h Ii C

Ig Mi Dvp,

7 Y S, Dg Q, Xi J T Mkig Aici Fs Ipc Assss iYw Riv, i Wter Seurt t Cmte Chnge nd Humn Atvt n Et A nd PRegn, . Xi J Li Sxi (Biig: Chi Mgic Pss, ).


56/200

[ 48 ]

asia polic y

Mi sss pic ssiiv ci chg.T wig i h Ti P gi is sigichigh h h g vg, h is high highi, sggsig g vii h csphvi ci chg. Tis is xpc

ci. Ci chg pcis sggs h s Sh Asi ik w s C h hc, whi i s s h wig c s high s.C. T i ivihs h pp i h Ti Pgi is chg ci chg, h sii pspi h gi fc h Ti P is isk,which wi hv ipicis Asi h w.8

T p cisis is h h is si g gp i sciic kwg

hs pcsss hi pi ipicis Hi ivs.

T sc p s fciv ci ig h

s h ic-ciic is i h His is sis p i

ii i.9 Whi Li McC hv

psh w ig his gp, h sch i h vi

ssiii h Hi wsh is g pqisi

ssi cic gwh vp i Asi.10

he Envrnment Sutnbt the Hmn Rver:A Regn k Gb Sgnne

T His f si s sg s, h

qick gwig w s h sig pis hv h

pi iig s h. T Xigi D h Yw Riv

Bhk D h S Riv, xp, w h s g

cis cic gwh i Chi Ii, spciv. Wih h

pssg i, hwv, h vi ipcs s hv g

ccs vi vs pshig w sig

h giig ivis i h Hi ivs. T

T Ggs D Ygz Riv i Chi h hi D h

Bhgihi Riv i Ii g sis ccs v ssiii.

High si s hv h cpic s, sic spi

h si w cs cs giig chg.11

8 Wh Is h Ti P?

9 J Bph, Ci Chg Hi Ksh-Hi Ws: Kwg Gps Piiis i Api, Sutnbe Muntn Devement, . (): .

10 S Li McC, Ci Hgic Mig.

11 K.G. Rg R, U.C. Khi, M.K. Mi, Stte Art Rert n Reervr Sedmenttn(Rk: Ni Ci Hg, ).


57/200

[ 49 ]


Nvhss, h Hi ivs hv ci h cs

-iig fs. I cs, hs hpw s

s i h iis h Bhp h sh

spc i Ii Yg sgp i Chi. Tis iv h

i wih i c, h x h sgic vi

ipicis c kw. I pic, h pps sc

ivi Chi h Yg sgp hs w g i

i h pssiii h h Bhp wi p ws

i Ii ig h ss. I i, h Yg sgp is i

ci h w h Bhp. Fh, sw gcis

spp % is w. Wh is sigic i h w h

Yg sgp is h w h v g pi ggi. A hpw pc h Yg sgp w

civ Chi h pc phsic s w. Ds

h ig i p h Mkg Sw ivs qi

sis i wih spc chg w ps ci

i h ws, i .

I viw h chg sci giv h g ppi

i Asi, h sk sig h vi ssiii h

Hi ivs is p sigicc. Fh, picig hipc g wig ci chg h Hi ivs hs

i v high pii Asi s wh. I is i h gi

is, s ch s i hi w is, h h cis shig h

His k civ sps ss hs isss

vi chgsi pic, ci chgvs h w

pis. As g skhs, i s h ppi sciic

cpii, Chi Ii s p c i cig sch

ci. T is ii civ sch

pvi g ci h is h-gic pcsss

i h His. T vsig i h Ii Hi s

Ukh h cc i J ki hss pp is

cs i pi.

Fh, h sk vpig si ig picig h

ipcs g wig ci chg is q g.12 T

cvs v h which h Hi gcis shikig

12 .D. Y ., Ti P Evi, UNESCO-SCOPE-UNEP Pic Bis, . , J .


58/200

[ 50 ]

asia polic y

shws h high-v sciic sch his pic.13 T

c w i wig i h Hi ivs s

s ics i w ci gi. Tis w

c h ii h is s w i sw

gcis h c w pss h csci

ii sg scs. O h h, h w ci gi

hc h xisig p s i Hi ivs, whi

s ig g si gi spi. O h

h h, h g viii i c wi-wi sii

i cgic ssi sci ccp picis is sg

p i pc. T vc scic picis chivig

h g ssiii is g chg h wi chivhgh xsiv gi ci vis vs gig

w scic h-ipc. Spcic, his is ppi

Chi Ii sish hi ciii s s i ssiii

scic giig.

13 V.K. Ri, Hi Gcis: A S--A Rviw Gci Sis, Gci R Ci Chg, Ii Miis Evi Fss h G.B. P Isi Hi Evi Dvp, Nv , .


59/200


60/200


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62/200

[ 54 ]

asia polic y

Di, Os i sci vis, siz h iisis

g ci s gh:

I isg wih h pis p w s hisis hiss h isig pw sish pw

shw si cic. T is hig pi sch c. I is w phsics, sis chics s h g pw ci.Ohs hv c ci. W c h, . A c is pssi. B i s h sish Ui Ss Chi i w is w xisigpw gig . Xi Jipig Psi Ohv h s his g.5

I h ps, Wshig hs g Biig vc cphsiv

visi h w is spciv gi g s i h ipc gwig Chis sgh, visi h hp c

vc cpi. Tis Chis iiiiv s ig w p

-pw is is hs vp h Wshig sh,

sig s, wc. , hwv, h iii sggsis h

cis hv pic cs wh ch si ws h h

h h wh Chi h Ui Ss h s . Tis

ss is v h iscssi w spciig h cic

sci is i which cpi s iii hc

kig spcic pic ppss.

h is s gc cc hikig cs h wig

vps, h i i is i h v si i s

ps Asi . Chis spig s whi pp, ppv

h highs vs h Chis p-s, ks c h isis

h p:

Chi si cs ip cpic sci hs chgs. S c [h Ui Ss] hs sghis Asi-Pcic ii ics, xp is ii psci h gi, q ks h sii h s.O h isss ccig Chis ii svig ii ighs iss, s ighig cis kig cis h cpic xc h sii, Jp is kig v h iss h Di Iss. Ths ps h cs, , is, spis xis, h is. Chgs i h w chizi iiizi ccig.

M pws vigs vpig w sphisic ii chgis s s s h h c

5 Di, T Ui Ss h Asi-Pcic i (ks h Asi Sci, NwYk, Mch , ).


63/200

[ 55 ]

lampton a new type of major-power relationship

ii sgic spiiis i ii cpii isch s s spc c spc.6

A his , h sis s ci hi sp c

si hisic iis. I ch h wih c, higig iisic pig ws h cii ii css

sgg ig C W hikig. , sc iis

s h i h iviii cic g pws is h

w ic pcic chg. As Chis si ic

p i i J , T is h i h isig i

pws hig f cif.

ann a major-oer relaton

w ger n Muntn

T Ui Ss Chi pvis sish w -pw

iship i h s. Eq sigh s s .

Nhss, h is g isici w h w.

Psi Nix Chi M, Psi C Si L

Dg Xipig, sish w iship w pws, i ws

si iship h p, i h cx h C W

ssi s c ppsii hi ph Svi

Ui. T iship ws ss wh h w is spp h

wh h pps, hgh h i psiiv is

csi h. I ws w iship w w cis i

h cx C W piics.

T c hs ps Chis Aic s wih

chg pv wg h sspi i h sciis h,

s h Chis sig gs, w igs c iv h s i.

Tis h ws giv is s pw c xpssi h his

Jh J. Mshi i Te rged Gret Pwer Pt.7Mshi

his ic ki spiis ss h ic i w fis qs

sci; h isig cic pw ivi wi cv is cic

sgh i h, ii pw chiv ic sci;

h hs cis ivi c xi c-pss

6 Ii Oc h S Cci h PRC, T Divsi Ep ChisA Fcs (Biig, Api , )u hp://ws.xih.c/gish/chi/-//c_.h.

7 Jh J. Mshi, Te rged Gret Pwer Pt (Nw Yk: W.W. N, ).


64/200

[ 56 ]

asia polic y

h pvis i pw, which sks ii, , phps

ii h cpciis h isig s. Csq, i is chgig

-pw iships, h ii ss is g, ici

is ivi, w is ik. T isig pw is s h pvis

i pws sspc c sisc pivigs c

c ipi, whi h ss q pw cs , kig cis

sig iig h chgs h hiz.

Ahgh h ip g isig ss q pws is

chgigi pcish sgis ssig hs sis

c fsiv iss sch s Mshi q

csi h piic i scs vi chiv ii

ic hg, h ikih sic xhsi i h cs sch fs, h ci hs i h ii ss sch

sps. T i i is h fs chiv ic hg

c siph w scs sic s sch x h h

v is cphsiv i pw i

h is.8 Usig vi vcis, sch fsiv is vics c

h i h h Ui Ss Chi. I his h is pis

h ss hgh which s gps i h sciis s

h c chc U.S.-Chi is k cisis, spiis cpi wi chi. I h Ui Ss, hs sis

vics ssig h Chis civ is iiiz h U.S. i Asi. I

Chi, cs h s ivs cvici h U.S. pic sks

ci Chis gwh s h is gc s

sg ii c h pps ig is i w.

Cvici, hwv, c h civ i. Chi hs

wk wih h Ui Ss i gi g s, icig h

Es Asi Si, h Ui Nis, h W Bk, h Ii

M F, h i i gizis

gis. As , h Ui Ss ws hs , Chis

ss schs. Ech c is ssiv p h h, wih

w-w i spssig $ ii h s i. I spc,

U.S.-Chi cpi ig h g ci cisis

ws ipssiv. Ts h cs ssi ih cs ws

ipi h hs ivs, iss, hviwih igh h ps, s sv.

8 A xc pic h ws i fsiv is hikig is i Jh Kish,T g Ofsiv Ris: Cssic Ris h Ris Chi, Euren Jurn Interntn Retn , . (): .


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67/200

[ 59 ]


s sg wi chg, I pic i wi. W k

sspis, w s iis ch iiis.

A h s ig ss, ig ss w.11 Ts ks s

viw gis h ckg ps h Sc Hg hs

h Pg csi swpig ii sg h h O

iisi vi s s i whh i is si f

i igh c g cs.12 I ii, ig his ci higs,

i K iic ssiivi hw Chi ws viwig h Ui

Ss s-c piv Asi:

T Chis k k s, Wh is h Ui Ss ig?[A] h ig cic s? Whs gig ? A svci hs is ci. Is s h w phsics; is h

w piics ipc. I hik w hv hghhw w g w.13

A cig sc s i Mch, K i cs ig his

wih h O iisis cig pic. B cig s

ccp hs isis, is ss p h h i piv,

fs csi ipi.

Whi Asi is cig gi wih icsig ig h w

c g sci, i s is h cs h h Ui Ss is gpw wih g iss g-sig ip iships

swh, s i Ep. Wshig s ci c is

i i wih is ccs, iss, ppiis, is wih

h gis. T ws wi wh h pppi c

. F xp, Vic Psi Bi s ig ip Ep i

F : Sip p, Psi O I ci iv h

Ep is h cs gg wih h s h w is

h cs g cpi. Is h sic. Nhig hs chg.14Iivi k gh, hs ks sh v-ip;

h hss ip pi h chgs ps scs,

cpig cis, shiig s, g ppiis.

11 Mi Dps, G R wih Chi h Ji Chis Sf G Mi

Dps (ks h C Sgic Ii Sis, Wshig, D.C.,Mch , ). S s Cig Whick, Bg Cig Sps Hg O Pg Rviw Y-O Sg, Whngtn Pt, Mch , .

12 Whick, Bg cig sps Hg.

13 P M, C Ds Ks Asi Piv, Autrn, Mch , .

14 Jsph Bi (ks h Mich Sci Cc, H Bisch H Mich,G, F , ).


68/200

[ 60 ]

asia polic y

Nw is i which h pi ii sic

cis Wshigs i scs pic s.

Ii, wh sh h iv wigh ssig cis U.S.

i h cg i Si, h A-Isi pc pcss, Ii

c vps, h xs chgs ivvig Aghis

Pkis? A his is cvs h Mi Es, C Asi,

Sh Asi. Dsic, cgssi-xciv gick hs pc

-x ppch g cis h hs wih pic c

s spig. Fh, s h - gi gs, h

sci spig qi wi ic. Tis is v i

iig schs w isc h wi qi hg ivss.

p i , s Wshig Biig cp wiship, i is c h h O iisi c hs

sg h cs ssi piiizi w s, is csis

wih U.S. scs, hs h spp k cs, s sic

vp s, c wi cpi ( vi vci) Chi,

c kp p wih pi chgig cicscs.

at onrete te ould moe u..-narelaton orard

Bh Biig Wshig s k sps i sv is i

-pw iship i h s c h is pis cic.

S vs c ch i sp ip,

h sh p icig; h vs wi qi xpici

i cii g. A iiig h is i which

ci c sh k, his ss ccs iscssig hw hcis sh piiiz hi cisssig h v iiiiv

is q g si h h scci ship i

scs cssis chic.

Knttng the w Sete gether

Wshig Biig sh s kig is w ciis

i h w cis, giv h iship ss i, i is i g v. A c i c i piics

i h Chi h Ui Ss is h ciizs c s hi

cic c cicscs, which ip s p. I

h s, U.S.-Jp is w siiz i Jp g


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[ 61 ]


isiv vp is wih U.S. ciis. Tis cc hgh

Jps ivss i p-gig piss, pic i

h is, which hs xsiv ikgs h ps h U.S.

c. Sii, cc wih h ipv U.S.-Chi is

i h s s ws h gwh i U.S. ivs i Chi h,

g h higs, c p ppiis g s

Chis ciizs. U.S FDI i Chi c csis %%

FDI i h c, which is sigic high. I , U.S.

FDI i Chi ws $. ii, .% is v h pcig .15 Chis

ivs i h Ui Ss, whi gwig pi i pcg s, is

si s i s s, chig $. ii i .16

Lc s hi psivs i h cis spciv icpis wi spk hv i c ws i h s

ic iks w h w hi ciis i is. F wh

I hv sv, s Cgss wih p-gig Chis

ivs i hi isics ss spk hik wih

spc i is h hs wih sch ccis Chi. F

xp, s Cgss wh ps iig s i Mis, h

i is i Kck, Siic V i Nh Cii

hv s sppiv sg U.S.-Chi is wh h c pi cc p s i hi spciv isics. I sspc h

sii ic is wk i Chi.

A his sggss h h Ui Ss Chi ip

sgh vs cic h i ipcis

h c v. Tis ipis sghig gv--gv,

icipi--icipi, -v icis w h w

cis. Ghigs U.S. Chis gvs, xp, sh

ipi. Vhics ics ici w c chs

cc i h cis sgh. Ricig sch

ikgs is ci ipiv.

I icig w, i s shw hgh

hi i v schs h h Ui Ss Chi hv

iship h is p h sip h is w hi cpis

15 T U.S.-Chi Bsiss Cci, Fig Dic Ivs i Chi, , hps://www.schi.g/sisics/i_civ.h. S s Pps Rpic Chi: U.S.-Chi Fcs, Oc h U.S. Rpsiv, Fc Sh u hp://www.s.gv/cis-gis/chi-gi-iw/pps-pic-chi.

16 S Chis Dic Ivs i h Ui Ss, , i Ti H, ChisFDI i h Ui Ss: Q Up, Rhi Gp, J , u hp://hg.c/s/chis-i-i-h-i-ss-q--p, g. .


70/200

[ 62 ]

asia polic y

cs ci cshis is iship w w

sciis. Psi Xi Jipigs cisi whi vic psi v

Msci, Iw, ws s h igh sig s i . His visi his

qi pic Aic ci s h ssg h h iz h i

h ci-siz cis i ic h h i

iiiivs wi wk is. His visi Msci ws s if

h ssg h his visi Hi Pvic c ci h.

csi x, s i Wshig Biig w h sis

hi spciv hs. I h cpis, i s sh iss

iciv hi schs ig ips h i ip h Ui

Ss Chi, spciv, s -hi h i sh sp f

h css h c. Tis sg w hv pi s, s wig U.S. Chis s s h ivsi viws

ciis wih which hi cps s cp. Ah vg is

h visiig ciis, pic i h Ui Ss, iizs h c

gi ss i h ig i if cs ws cvg.

Lc v is hs w pic h pccpis

h i i cgs.

Retnh Mngement t the Ntn Leve

Ni-v s i h Ui Ss Chi i wih

sic ps ii chgs. I is qi h h

g isss vwh h ip ps w. Y

h is ip ii iship h h h Ui

Ss Chi. Bi is wk s sh wh ch si

c sigs v si wih v -- spsiii

is. T is sg ci w pi fciviship gs pgss i i is. Js kig

h U.S. si, H Kissig, Zigiw Bzziski, S Bg, R

Zick, H Ps c i ( i ch isc h

w q sg cp Chis cps). I s css, U.S.

psis hi cps i si Chis ship hv h

iship gsGg H.W. Bsh is g xp, s w Dg

Xipig Jig Zi h Chis si. B cs, i pis wh

h ws ck ci wh ws i chg, iship g

ws g ss sccss. T s Bi Ci xp

i his g, whi his sc ws ch fciv g. T

pciv i is is h sc hiiv vic


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civiis h g g s pss i h h. I hv i i

h is ii, iigc, piv-sc svic. I is h

Ui Ss psii, p g sis, h ii w

pcic c i ( hs) h igh p wv is

shs i h w, cqiig ii sip pig h ss.

Tis svic, hwv, is p isig Chis. T wv-

i ii ws s i g wh wv is ws csi cshi,

which i is . Wih gig whh h wv-i ii

gh csi, wis piic s sh cs ssss

whh h i-igs g hs q civiis wh h

ps gis. Likwis, c sspc c civiis iivis

gizis cig i Chi ic h U.S. piv sc(i pic) cig q csiv i h Aic i.

Di, xp, s pic Mch , , h c ccs

hv v h h U.S. g.17

U.S. Chis s sk hsvs: A w ig higs

h sip i sci h h? A h ps gis

wh h css? Ags v hv ch ;

hvi sip s chg. Psi Nixs v i v

w ss g ps h iw Si i g h i ic ipv i i is h.

T ws g, s wis ci. T k pi is h ch si s

ws cc i s s h viws ssiiviis h

h, s hs hi ciizs. Js cs c c higs

s h i is i h cs v g- iss s.

hrd-Prt MngementMgig w-p iship is hicig hi pis

icss cpxi isk. B vi hi spciv hisis, gcis

h C W, sip ggphic cis, h Ui Ss

Chi hv v iships c ssiiviis h pic

wh ig wih ch h. C, Vz, Nh K

gic h Ui Ss; U.S. icis wih Chis ighs

ssiiv Biig, spci h K Pis wih Vi,

i h spci cs iw. Sis, h ivg

iss U.S Chis is k i ic h cis

17 Di, T Ui Ss h Asi-Pcic i .


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asia polic y

ii sii i i is. O ccsi, Wshig

Biig hs x siig ic is hs

whs cis c fc h sii h U.S.-Chi iship. A

g xp is h si Psi Gg W. Bsh x v

iws Ch Shi-i i h. h g h Chi

hs p Pggs hvi i i, h is

s wc.18 Fis wh s c i ws h csis wih

ch cs spciv iss i hi

igis. C, Chis is wih Nh K U.S. is

wih Jp c i. F xp, i is ik h Wshig w

hv c i-isic issi sss s pp w Asi (i h

pcss swig h p Ep-i sss) h i Nh Ks c c sig, issi chig, hpic

hic. Tis ic is Biig w p s.

Regn Inttutnztn

T Asi ppch cic g phsizs h ii

icsiv gi isiis csi. B h v U.S.

i ics i h gi, which ii ic Chi which g- s h scp, h hv cis

i cic, sci, h cpiv scs h w

iii cciv s icig h Chi h Ui Ss

xp, ASEAN +, h s-Pcic Pship (PP), h Shghi

Cpi Ogisi.19 Giig, h s gizis h

c h is, sch s h Es Asi Si h ASEAN Rgi

F. T sgic civs h sis gh piiiz wkig

w high si icsiv, h h xcsiv, gizis.I Nhs Asi, xp, i Wshig Biig c v v

h ps ivvig Pgg, Nhs Asi sci

wk w g sp w. I h , h cs gh

- gs h ic h Chi h Ui

Ss, wks h s iif pps h

h c ig ic. Excsi xps ic Biig pshig

h ASEAN + g h iii h PP giig

wk picips p Wshig.

18 Chi Pishs Nh K Nc ss, Assci Pss, Mch , .

19 Wih spc h PP, h O iisi hs p si h i s sk pc Chis pppi i pppi ciis i h .


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tnn about rorte

Tis ss hs ii sv iv cc sps h c,

sh, k i psi w p -pw iship w

h Ui Ss Chi. Tgh i scs csi

psig h is his g sis, v ii

is h css ship i piic cpi. Piiis s

sish. Hw c w s hik sishig piiis kig

ssi s sps?

Bh h xpic h sss i gig h i

iship v h s s sggs h, s Ah Msw

si, h is hich h s i which iivis, gps, sciis phsiz sci v cic s, cics v h

c s-cizi ccs. Ssi pic piiis wi c

his piiizi. Tis

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Asia Policy 16 July2013