ASIAPLASTICS

OUTLOOK2019

Key markets covered

PlasticizersPolybutylene Terephthalate (PBT)and Butanediol (BDO)

PolycarbonatePolyethylene (PE)Polypropylene (PP)

PolystyrenePolyvinyl Chloride (PVC)

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

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BY JOSON NG JANUARY 2019

PLASTICIZERS

Asia spot prices for plasticizers could some see support in the first quarter of 2019 on restocking ahead of the Lunar New year in the first week of February and slight thaw in trade tensions between the US and key Asian market of China

The US and China managed to agree on a 90-day truce to deescalate trade tensions during the G20 meeting in December and that may be good news for the plasticizers market for the first quarter of the year

While uncertainties remain producers or end users alike would in theory be able to plan their run rates safe in the knowledge that the trade war would not get worse in the near term

ASIA PLASTICIZERS SPOT PRICES TO BE SUPPORTED IN Q1

And with the traditional pre-Lunar New Year restocking activities demand for plasticizers could possibly improve

On the feedstock front 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) could enjoy some support in the first quarter of the year The run up to the Lunar New Year could also see some traditional restocking activities in the region

The post-holiday market could see some uncertainties as major feedstock propylene spot prices have declined following the week-long holiday for the last 2 years

On the propylene front spot prices in Q1 could see some support in the run up to the Lunar New Year (in early February) after ending 2018 on a dismal note

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY JOSON NG JANUARY 2019

PLASTICIZERS

Asia spot prices for plasticizers could some see support in the first quarter of 2019 on restocking ahead of the Lunar New year in the first week of February and slight thaw in trade tensions between the US and key Asian market of China

The US and China managed to agree on a 90-day truce to deescalate trade tensions during the G20 meeting in December and that may be good news for the plasticizers market for the first quarter of the year

While uncertainties remain producers or end users alike would in theory be able to plan their run rates safe in the knowledge that the trade war would not get worse in the near term

ASIA PLASTICIZERS SPOT PRICES TO BE SUPPORTED IN Q1

And with the traditional pre-Lunar New Year restocking activities demand for plasticizers could possibly improve

On the feedstock front 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) could enjoy some support in the first quarter of the year The run up to the Lunar New Year could also see some traditional restocking activities in the region

The post-holiday market could see some uncertainties as major feedstock propylene spot prices have declined following the week-long holiday for the last 2 years

On the propylene front spot prices in Q1 could see some support in the run up to the Lunar New Year (in early February) after ending 2018 on a dismal note

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

Supply of diisononyl phthalate (DINP) in northeast Asian could start the year on the tight side as one feedstock isononanol (INA) unit is only set to resume production in February

As such supply of DINP could be limited

In Europe there are some uncertainties on demand for Asian cargoes as inventories are set to end the year 2018 on a low

Some European buyers are not very optimistic with current economic climate and that could be a dampener for demand

In the US there too are some uncertainties for Asian cargoes as 2019 supply and demand may depend on the production of the auto industry

Margins for dioctyl phthalate (DOP) have been healthy for most of 2018 according to ICIS data

Dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP) was trending largely in a similar vein with margins in the positive territory in the final quarter of 2018

Spot prices for DOTP were trending up overall in 2018

Spot prices were at $1210tonne CFR (cost and freight) China on 5 January and was at $1240tonne CFR China in end of December

DOP on the other hand was slightly lower It started the year at $1130tonne CFR east Asia and was at $1080tonne CFR east Asia in end December

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07-Sep-2018

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06-Jul-2018

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USD

tonn

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PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

ASIA PLASTICIZERS PRICES

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY MATTHEW CHONG JANUARY 2019

POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PBT) AND BUTANEDIOL (BDO)

Asia spot prices of 14-butanediol (BDO) and its downstream polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) are expected to continue their downward trend in the first quarter of 2019 and the prospects for recovery are seen weak for the rest of the year

The BDO prices in China will face mounting pressure from reduced PBT demand though production cuts in China will cushion the fall in the PBT price downside

Chinese BDO supply is expected to remain ample as government restrictions on industrial energy usage in winter will be less prominent than last year prompting producers to run at higher rate in the absence of stringent rules on hopes of exporting more material for better net-backs

ASIA BDO SEEN WEAK IN Q1 CHINESE OUTPUT CUTS TO CUSHION PBT DECLINES

Suffice to say Chinese BDO import volumes will most likely remain subdued in 2019 and Chinese producers will count on the export market

In the Chinese import market both BDO and PBT prices are expected to track the price movements in the key China market to some extent although there has been a noticeably widening price gap between Chinese BDO imports and domestic cargoes

Poor local Chinese demand will persist in the early weeks of the new year Consumption in China had dwindled in the past months with the approach of the year-end lull as buyers were hesitant to stock up on cargoes because they prefer to keep their inventory levels lean

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY MATTHEW CHONG JANUARY 2019

POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE (PBT) AND BUTANEDIOL (BDO)

Asia spot prices of 14-butanediol (BDO) and its downstream polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) are expected to continue their downward trend in the first quarter of 2019 and the prospects for recovery are seen weak for the rest of the year

The BDO prices in China will face mounting pressure from reduced PBT demand though production cuts in China will cushion the fall in the PBT price downside

Chinese BDO supply is expected to remain ample as government restrictions on industrial energy usage in winter will be less prominent than last year prompting producers to run at higher rate in the absence of stringent rules on hopes of exporting more material for better net-backs

ASIA BDO SEEN WEAK IN Q1 CHINESE OUTPUT CUTS TO CUSHION PBT DECLINES

Suffice to say Chinese BDO import volumes will most likely remain subdued in 2019 and Chinese producers will count on the export market

In the Chinese import market both BDO and PBT prices are expected to track the price movements in the key China market to some extent although there has been a noticeably widening price gap between Chinese BDO imports and domestic cargoes

Poor local Chinese demand will persist in the early weeks of the new year Consumption in China had dwindled in the past months with the approach of the year-end lull as buyers were hesitant to stock up on cargoes because they prefer to keep their inventory levels lean

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

Demand will likely pick up only from the second half of February onwards as downstream plants in China are expected to shut for two weeks ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in early February

Upstream-wise the prices of various feedstock used by different BDO producers outside China - including butadiene (BD) propylene propylene oxide (PO) and maleic anhydride (MA) - are not expected to increase significantly in the first quarter 2019 amid declining crude oil values and overall poor market sentiment

The other main feedstock used in PBT production besides BDO ndash purified terephthalic acid (PTA) ndash may see price gains The price upside in PTA however may be limited in early 2019 after China import prices plunged by 25 from its peak in mid-September 2018 before bottoming out in end-November There are limited scheduled maintenance at PTA facilities in the near term and the current tight supply may gradually ease going forward

Meanwhile the average operating rate of PBT plants in China dropped to around 70 of capacity in early December from 80 in the second half of November following the tumble in PBT domestic prices in late-November

PBT domestic prices had slumped to a low of Chinese yuan (CNY) 9500tonne ($1381tonne) DEL (delivered) China at one point before recovering to CNY11000tonne DEL China within a couple of weeks after the output cuts according to market sources

Low-priced China PBT exports will likely vanish after the rebound in China domestic prices since early December

As for BDO China domestic prices have been on a steady downtrend trend with average prices hovering at slightly above the CNY10000tonne DEL China mark as of 11 December down from its 2018 peak of CNY11700tonne DEL China in April

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Butanediol C FR C hina As s es s ment Main Ports Bulk S pot 2-6 Weeks hellip

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BDO CFR CHINA V DEL CHINA

Butanediol CFR China Assessment Main Ports Bulk Spot 2-6 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Butanediol DEL China Assessment Spot 0-10 Days Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

580600620640660680700720740760780800820840

04-Jan-2019

07-Dec-2018

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018

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018

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USD

kg

Base Oils Group II N150 FOB Asia NE Assessment Spot 2-6 Weeks Full Markehellip

Base Oils Group II N500 FOB Asia NE Assessment Spot 2-6 Weeks Full Markehellip

PBT CIF NE ASIA V CIF INDIA

PBT Natural Grade CIF Asia NE Assessment Spot Current Month Full Market Range (Mid)

PBT Natural Grade CIF India Assessment Spot Current Month Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY MELANIE WEE JANUARY 2019

POLYCARBONATE

Asiarsquos polycarbonate (PC) prices are expected to take on a soft trend in the first quarter at least with ample supply expected to keep a lid on any potential upsurge market sources said

Spot prices of PC are poised to take cues from movements in upstream raw material bisphenol A (BPA) markets particularly in China A persistently weak Chinese Yuan currency to the US dollar compounded with the ongoing US-China trade tensions has depressed sentiment making imports uneconomical

Meanwhile substantial falls in BPA prices in China have generated downward pressure on most PC grades along with prices of other engineering plastics over the last three months BPA is used in the production of PC resins

ASIArsquoS POLYCARBONATE MAY SEE LIMITED UPSURGE POTENTIAL

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Source ICIS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY MELANIE WEE JANUARY 2019

POLYCARBONATE

Asiarsquos polycarbonate (PC) prices are expected to take on a soft trend in the first quarter at least with ample supply expected to keep a lid on any potential upsurge market sources said

Spot prices of PC are poised to take cues from movements in upstream raw material bisphenol A (BPA) markets particularly in China A persistently weak Chinese Yuan currency to the US dollar compounded with the ongoing US-China trade tensions has depressed sentiment making imports uneconomical

Meanwhile substantial falls in BPA prices in China have generated downward pressure on most PC grades along with prices of other engineering plastics over the last three months BPA is used in the production of PC resins

ASIArsquoS POLYCARBONATE MAY SEE LIMITED UPSURGE POTENTIAL

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Source ICIS

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

Spot prices for most grades of PC spiralled downwards through most of the fourth quarter

The spread between PC and BPA narrowed to around $800tonne levels towards the end of the fourth quarter from the low $1000stonne in the third quarter of 2018

This consequently forced PC producers in parts of northeast Asia to trim production to mitigate squeezed margins

In the week ended 12 December spot prices of GP moulding-grade PC or the injection grade averaged at $2200tonne CIF (cost insurance and freight) China marking a hefty decline of 35 compared to the same period in 2017 according to ICIS data

The bearish sentiment may persist from January to March amid a slowdown prior to the Chinese Lunar New Year festival that takes place on 5 February 2019

ldquoPrices [of optical-grade PC] are likely to hold stable at best just before the Lunar New Year in Februaryrdquo a northeast Asia-based market source said

In addition the market is expected face ample supply given Chinarsquos Luxi Chemicalrsquos newly-added 65000 tonneyear PC unit to its plant located in Shandong province

This brings the PC capacity of Luxi to 130000 tonneyear with the current 65000 tonneyear included

Meanwhile a third PC line of a similar capacity is on a trial run

On the other hand demand already rattled by the impact and uncertainty from the trade tensions as well as a slowing Chinese economy may be bleak going forward

ldquoFebruary [markets] should be quiet because of the Lunar New Year holidayrdquo a separate northeast Asia-based market source said

Depending on [the outcome] of the US-China trade talks and crude oilrsquos price direction spot PC prices are unlikely to see much of a reboundrdquo a China-based market source said

Chinarsquos official manufacturing purchasing managersrsquo index (PMI) fell to 494 in December the first contraction in two and a half years according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

PMI is a barometer of an economyrsquos manufacturing activity in which a reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 as contraction

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USD

tonn

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PC GP Moulding CIF China Assessment Spot 15-30 Days Close-weighted Ranhellip

PC Optical Grade CIF China Assessment Spot 15-30 Days Close-weighted Rahellip

PC GP Moulding CIF China Assessment Spot 15-30 Days Close-weighted Range (Mid)

PC Optical Grade CIF China Assessment Spot 15-30 Days Close-weighted Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY FELITA WIDJAJA JANUARY 2019

PLASTICS amp POLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

Southeast Asia polyethylene (PE) market is likely to face some downward pressure in 2019 on oversupply as demand could not catch up with the large capacity additions

Import PE supply is expected to swell amid another round of new PE plants start-ups creating more options for converters while suppressing prices in return industry sources said

The first wave of shale gas projects in the US and PE expansions in India had added around 6m tonnes of PE capacity from 2017 to 2018 with linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) being the most volume added followed by high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) grades

In the first half of 2018 both domestic and import prices saw some gains across all PE grades with dutiable HDPE prices surging above $1400tonne CFR SE Asia on average in March a price level last seen in 2015

Prices were supported by tight supply situation amid limited production and commercial shutdowns stemming from much higher feedstock ethylene price and robust demand in PE pipe market Regional PE producers with integrated plants switch to selling their ethylene when prices are high for better netback lowering their PE production

The surge in demand for HDPE pipe amid growth in the construction sector in Asia has given more incentive for HDPE producers to switch their production to pipe instead of film grade tightening the latter supply in the process

In the second half of the year PE prices moved away from their respective peaks and steadily declined month-on-month with LLDPE film grade performing the worst

Dutiable LLDPE prices reached a 9-year low at $1000tonne CFR SE Asia on average as of mid-December 2018 amid mounting supply pressure

India is exporting heavily to southeast Asia after it turned into a net exporter in 2018 with the region making close to 20 of its total export volumes in 2018

An additional 25 tariffs imposed on 23 August for most

SE ASIA PE MARKET FACES FURTHER DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON OVERSUPPLY

US import PE cargoes in China had rendered US cargoes unappealing to Chinese buyers effectively closing the prime import destination to US producers

As a large chunk of export volume from the new US PE plants that came online in 2017 and 2018 were initially meant for China US suppliers need to find many other markets to sell to to bridge the gap

In order to gain foothold and market share in Asia US suppliers were inclined to offer competitive prices particularly for LLDPE grade should the US-China trade tension continues throughout 2019

Offers for US LLDPE cargoes were readily available below $1000tonne CFR SEA largely at $950-980tonne CFR SEA around $50tonne lower than other offers available from regular Saudi and Middle East suppliers

The supply glut looks set to intensify in 2019 as more PE producers are on track to start up their plants adding close to 7m tonnes of additional PE supply globally

GLOBAL PE CAPACITY EXPANSION 2019

CompanyCapacity (ktyear)

Grade breakdown

LocationStart-

UpFormosa Plastics

800HDPE (400) LDPE (400)

Point Comfort Texas

H1 2019

Sasol 420 LDPELake Charles Louisiana

2019

LyondellBasell 500 HDPE La Porte TexasQ4

2019ExxonMobil Chemical

650 PE (unspecified) Beaumont Texas 2019

Sibur 1500LLDPEHDPE (4002) HDPE (3502)

Toblosk RussiaQ4

2019

Petronas 750HDPE (400) LLDPE (350)

Johor MalaysiaQ4

2019

Chandra Asri 400 LLDPEHDPECilegon Indonesia

Q4 2019

Jiutai Energy 250 LLDPEHDPEInner Mongolia North China

Jul 2019

Zhongrsquoan Lianhe Coal Chemical

350 LLDPEHDPEAnhui East China

H2 2019

Qinghai Damei 300 LLDPEHDPEQinghai Northwest China

Q3 2019

Zhejiang Petrochemical

750LLDPEHDPE (300)

HDPE (450)

Zhejiang East China

Q3 2019

Baofeng Energy 300 LLDPEHDPENingxia Northwest China

H2 2019

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

On 21 December dutiable LLDPE film prices were assessed at $1100-1020tonne CFR SE Asia up $20tonne from the week before amid a lack of competitively-priced offers according to ICIS data

Dutiable HDPE film prices were assessed stable-to-soft at $1030-1050tonne CFR SE Asia while dutiable LDPE film prices were stable week-on-week at $1020-1030tonne CFR SE Asia ICIS data showed

Demand growth for PE including LDPE grade in most Asian markets is expected to be slower in 2019 in tandem with the global economic slowdown uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical market and rising environmental concerns on plastic waste

There is relatively limited supply pressure for non-dutiable ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) cargoes as the bulk of additional supply were for dutiable cargoes

This might act as a catalyst to widen the price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable cargoes further in 2019

On the demand side most buyers in southeast Asia have largely been weighed by bearish market sentiment which might continue to manifest in 2019 amid tilted supply-demand balance

Most converters opt to rely on more prompt shipment imports for their immediate requirements amid market uncertainty

Similarly traders and stockists are cautious to take any position opting to hold on to minimally comfortable allocations and stock levels amid market uncertainty

Industry sources see Vietnam becoming a more targeted exports market in Asia apart from China in the foreseeable future

Vietnam market has been inundated with competitively-priced import cargoes from India and the US due to its full reliance on imports and zero import duty policy while other southeast Asian countries impose between 5-15 of import duty for non-ASEAN PE cargoes

Prices in Vietnam could be significantly lower than other southeast Asian regions which might isolate price movements in Vietnam from the rest of southeast Asia warranting separate price assessments sources said

Overall outlook for 2019 remains cautious with some risk of further downtrend across PE grades while some market players believe that LLDPE prices had reached the bottom

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Request a demo

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

21-Dec-2018

30-Nov-2018

09-Nov-2018

19-Oct-2

018

28-Sep-2018

07-Sep-2018

17-Aug-2018

27-Jul-2018

06-Jul-2018

15-Jun-2018

25-May-2018

04-May-2018

13-Apr-2

018

23-Mar-2

018

02-Mar-2

018

09-Feb-2018

19-Jan-2018

USD

tonn

e

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

SE ASIA DUTIABLE PE PRICES

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY FELITA WIDJAJA JANUARY 2019

PLASTICS amp POLYMERSPOLYETHYLENE (PE)

Southeast Asia polyethylene (PE) market is likely to face some downward pressure in 2019 on oversupply as demand could not catch up with the large capacity additions

Import PE supply is expected to swell amid another round of new PE plants start-ups creating more options for converters while suppressing prices in return industry sources said

The first wave of shale gas projects in the US and PE expansions in India had added around 6m tonnes of PE capacity from 2017 to 2018 with linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) being the most volume added followed by high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) grades

In the first half of 2018 both domestic and import prices saw some gains across all PE grades with dutiable HDPE prices surging above $1400tonne CFR SE Asia on average in March a price level last seen in 2015

Prices were supported by tight supply situation amid limited production and commercial shutdowns stemming from much higher feedstock ethylene price and robust demand in PE pipe market Regional PE producers with integrated plants switch to selling their ethylene when prices are high for better netback lowering their PE production

The surge in demand for HDPE pipe amid growth in the construction sector in Asia has given more incentive for HDPE producers to switch their production to pipe instead of film grade tightening the latter supply in the process

In the second half of the year PE prices moved away from their respective peaks and steadily declined month-on-month with LLDPE film grade performing the worst

Dutiable LLDPE prices reached a 9-year low at $1000tonne CFR SE Asia on average as of mid-December 2018 amid mounting supply pressure

India is exporting heavily to southeast Asia after it turned into a net exporter in 2018 with the region making close to 20 of its total export volumes in 2018

An additional 25 tariffs imposed on 23 August for most

SE ASIA PE MARKET FACES FURTHER DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON OVERSUPPLY

US import PE cargoes in China had rendered US cargoes unappealing to Chinese buyers effectively closing the prime import destination to US producers

As a large chunk of export volume from the new US PE plants that came online in 2017 and 2018 were initially meant for China US suppliers need to find many other markets to sell to to bridge the gap

In order to gain foothold and market share in Asia US suppliers were inclined to offer competitive prices particularly for LLDPE grade should the US-China trade tension continues throughout 2019

Offers for US LLDPE cargoes were readily available below $1000tonne CFR SEA largely at $950-980tonne CFR SEA around $50tonne lower than other offers available from regular Saudi and Middle East suppliers

The supply glut looks set to intensify in 2019 as more PE producers are on track to start up their plants adding close to 7m tonnes of additional PE supply globally

GLOBAL PE CAPACITY EXPANSION 2019

CompanyCapacity (ktyear)

Grade breakdown

LocationStart-

UpFormosa Plastics

800HDPE (400) LDPE (400)

Point Comfort Texas

H1 2019

Sasol 420 LDPELake Charles Louisiana

2019

LyondellBasell 500 HDPE La Porte TexasQ4

2019ExxonMobil Chemical

650 PE (unspecified) Beaumont Texas 2019

Sibur 1500LLDPEHDPE (4002) HDPE (3502)

Toblosk RussiaQ4

2019

Petronas 750HDPE (400) LLDPE (350)

Johor MalaysiaQ4

2019

Chandra Asri 400 LLDPEHDPECilegon Indonesia

Q4 2019

Jiutai Energy 250 LLDPEHDPEInner Mongolia North China

Jul 2019

Zhongrsquoan Lianhe Coal Chemical

350 LLDPEHDPEAnhui East China

H2 2019

Qinghai Damei 300 LLDPEHDPEQinghai Northwest China

Q3 2019

Zhejiang Petrochemical

750LLDPEHDPE (300)

HDPE (450)

Zhejiang East China

Q3 2019

Baofeng Energy 300 LLDPEHDPENingxia Northwest China

H2 2019

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

On 21 December dutiable LLDPE film prices were assessed at $1100-1020tonne CFR SE Asia up $20tonne from the week before amid a lack of competitively-priced offers according to ICIS data

Dutiable HDPE film prices were assessed stable-to-soft at $1030-1050tonne CFR SE Asia while dutiable LDPE film prices were stable week-on-week at $1020-1030tonne CFR SE Asia ICIS data showed

Demand growth for PE including LDPE grade in most Asian markets is expected to be slower in 2019 in tandem with the global economic slowdown uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical market and rising environmental concerns on plastic waste

There is relatively limited supply pressure for non-dutiable ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) cargoes as the bulk of additional supply were for dutiable cargoes

This might act as a catalyst to widen the price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable cargoes further in 2019

On the demand side most buyers in southeast Asia have largely been weighed by bearish market sentiment which might continue to manifest in 2019 amid tilted supply-demand balance

Most converters opt to rely on more prompt shipment imports for their immediate requirements amid market uncertainty

Similarly traders and stockists are cautious to take any position opting to hold on to minimally comfortable allocations and stock levels amid market uncertainty

Industry sources see Vietnam becoming a more targeted exports market in Asia apart from China in the foreseeable future

Vietnam market has been inundated with competitively-priced import cargoes from India and the US due to its full reliance on imports and zero import duty policy while other southeast Asian countries impose between 5-15 of import duty for non-ASEAN PE cargoes

Prices in Vietnam could be significantly lower than other southeast Asian regions which might isolate price movements in Vietnam from the rest of southeast Asia warranting separate price assessments sources said

Overall outlook for 2019 remains cautious with some risk of further downtrend across PE grades while some market players believe that LLDPE prices had reached the bottom

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Request a demo

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

21-Dec-2018

30-Nov-2018

09-Nov-2018

19-Oct-2

018

28-Sep-2018

07-Sep-2018

17-Aug-2018

27-Jul-2018

06-Jul-2018

15-Jun-2018

25-May-2018

04-May-2018

13-Apr-2

018

23-Mar-2

018

02-Mar-2

018

09-Feb-2018

19-Jan-2018

USD

tonn

e

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

SE ASIA DUTIABLE PE PRICES

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

On 21 December dutiable LLDPE film prices were assessed at $1100-1020tonne CFR SE Asia up $20tonne from the week before amid a lack of competitively-priced offers according to ICIS data

Dutiable HDPE film prices were assessed stable-to-soft at $1030-1050tonne CFR SE Asia while dutiable LDPE film prices were stable week-on-week at $1020-1030tonne CFR SE Asia ICIS data showed

Demand growth for PE including LDPE grade in most Asian markets is expected to be slower in 2019 in tandem with the global economic slowdown uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical market and rising environmental concerns on plastic waste

There is relatively limited supply pressure for non-dutiable ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) cargoes as the bulk of additional supply were for dutiable cargoes

This might act as a catalyst to widen the price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable cargoes further in 2019

On the demand side most buyers in southeast Asia have largely been weighed by bearish market sentiment which might continue to manifest in 2019 amid tilted supply-demand balance

Most converters opt to rely on more prompt shipment imports for their immediate requirements amid market uncertainty

Similarly traders and stockists are cautious to take any position opting to hold on to minimally comfortable allocations and stock levels amid market uncertainty

Industry sources see Vietnam becoming a more targeted exports market in Asia apart from China in the foreseeable future

Vietnam market has been inundated with competitively-priced import cargoes from India and the US due to its full reliance on imports and zero import duty policy while other southeast Asian countries impose between 5-15 of import duty for non-ASEAN PE cargoes

Prices in Vietnam could be significantly lower than other southeast Asian regions which might isolate price movements in Vietnam from the rest of southeast Asia warranting separate price assessments sources said

Overall outlook for 2019 remains cautious with some risk of further downtrend across PE grades while some market players believe that LLDPE prices had reached the bottom

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Request a demo

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

21-Dec-2018

30-Nov-2018

09-Nov-2018

19-Oct-2

018

28-Sep-2018

07-Sep-2018

17-Aug-2018

27-Jul-2018

06-Jul-2018

15-Jun-2018

25-May-2018

04-May-2018

13-Apr-2

018

23-Mar-2

018

02-Mar-2

018

09-Feb-2018

19-Jan-2018

USD

tonn

e

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market hellip

SE ASIA DUTIABLE PE PRICES

PE HDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PE LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY LEANNE TAN JANUARY 2019

POLYPROPYLENE (PP)

Polypropylene (PP) spot prices in southeast Asia may continue to be suppressed moving into the first quarter of 2019 as the market continues to grapple with fresh supplies and tepid downstream demand amid global trade tensions

2018 started on a bullish note with all-origins PP flat yarn grade prices peaking for the year at $1305tonne CFR (cost and freight) southeast (SE) Asia in early June a close to 10 increase from January according to ICIS data

For the first three quarters of 2018 spot prices stayed consistently higher than the same period in the year prior with all-origins spot prices mostly staying over the $1250tonne CFR SE Asia mark supported by healthy import buying appetite and lower than anticipated inventory levels in China

Some unexpected turnarounds in the Middle East and parallel gains in the upstream propylene market further propelled regional PP spot prices

However sentiment took a dramatic turn for the worse in the last quarter with spot prices plunging by more than 13 within the short span of seven weeks

SE ASIA PP TO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY NEW START-UPS

Trade tensions between US and China stoked volatility in the petrochemical markets in the later part of 2018 and the PP market was not spared For most of Q4 demand in southeast Asia was in the doldrums

Converters and end-users in southeast Asia were making procurements on a hand-to-mouth basis opting to keep stocks lean amid concerns that spot prices may lose further ground in the weeks ahead

Meanwhile the market continues to grapple with fresh supply with the start-up of Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicalrsquos (NSRP) 400000 tonneyear production unit in Vietnam and Lotte Chemical Titanrsquos 200000 tonneyear facility in Malaysia

Availability of duty-exempted ASEAN origin cargoes in particular has lengthened considerably as a result resulting in a narrower price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable PP cargoes in SE Asia a trend that is likely to continue well into 2019

The scheduled mid-2019 start-up of the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Malaysiarsquos southern state of Johor is expected to add a further 900000 tonnesyear of PP capacity in the region

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

106010801100112011401160118012001220124012601280130013201340

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

08-Jun-2018

18-May-2018

27-Apr-2

018

06-Apr-2

018

16-Mar-2

018

23-Feb-2018

02-Feb-2018

USD

tonn

e

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full hellip

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment Non-Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks hellip

DUTIABLE V NON-DUTIABLE PP FLAT YARN SE ASIA PRICES

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment Non-Dutiable Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

08-Jun-2018

18-May-2018

27-Apr-2

018

06-Apr-2

018

16-Mar-2

018

23-Feb-2018

02-Feb-2018

USD

tonn

e

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment All Origins Spot 0-8 Weeks Fulhellip

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China Assessment Main Ports Spot 0-8 Weeks Full hellip

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Vietnam Assessment All Origins Spot 0-8 Weeks Fuhellip

PP FLAT YARN ASIA PACIFIC PRICES

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Asia SE Assessment All Origins Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China Assessment Main Ports Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR Vietnam Assessment All Origins Spot 0-8 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

With the start-up of the new unit Malaysia is expected to become a net PP exporter with a total production capacity of 154m tonnesyear by 2020 putting a massive dent on its demand for imports

In Thailand some local traders harboured concerns over political uncertainties surrounding the upcoming general election after four years of military rule which could have possible implications on the countryrsquos economy

The local market in Vietnam continues to struggle to achieve a new equilibrium with the start-up of NSRPrsquos new PP production unit The producerrsquos main focus thus far has been on commodity homopolymer grades leading to a reduced dependency on imports for commodity grades in the country

In particular Vietnam has seen very limited imports of Chinese origin PP cargoes

Initially there were expectations that new capacities in China may result in Chinese suppliers seeking to export more volumes to Vietnam

However NSRPrsquos start-up has led to increased price-competition between locally-produced materials and imports within Vietnam as new market players struggle to establish market share in the country

Meanwhile Indonesia is expected to see growing volumes of South Korean origin exports in 2019 in particular for copolymer grades for which South Korean exporters enjoy duty-free status in Indonesia

Throughout the past year Indonesia has seen competitively-priced South Korean copolymer exports being offered in the country exerting increasing pressure on ASEAN producers whose cargoes are similarly exempt from duties in Indonesia

While there are concerns that the increased availability may lead to an eroded price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable copolymer prices it is worth noting that the bulk of PP start-ups in China and southeast Asia have thus far been focused on mainly homopolymer grades

Hence some market players are hopeful that spreads between homopolymer and copolymer grades could be maintained at least in the near term

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

With the start-up of the new unit Malaysia is expected to become a net PP exporter with a total production capacity of 154m tonnesyear by 2020 putting a massive dent on its demand for imports

In Thailand some local traders harboured concerns over political uncertainties surrounding the upcoming general election after four years of military rule which could have possible implications on the countryrsquos economy

The local market in Vietnam continues to struggle to achieve a new equilibrium with the start-up of NSRPrsquos new PP production unit The producerrsquos main focus thus far has been on commodity homopolymer grades leading to a reduced dependency on imports for commodity grades in the country

In particular Vietnam has seen very limited imports of Chinese origin PP cargoes

Initially there were expectations that new capacities in China may result in Chinese suppliers seeking to export more volumes to Vietnam

However NSRPrsquos start-up has led to increased price-competition between locally-produced materials and imports within Vietnam as new market players struggle to establish market share in the country

Meanwhile Indonesia is expected to see growing volumes of South Korean origin exports in 2019 in particular for copolymer grades for which South Korean exporters enjoy duty-free status in Indonesia

Throughout the past year Indonesia has seen competitively-priced South Korean copolymer exports being offered in the country exerting increasing pressure on ASEAN producers whose cargoes are similarly exempt from duties in Indonesia

While there are concerns that the increased availability may lead to an eroded price gap between dutiable and non-dutiable copolymer prices it is worth noting that the bulk of PP start-ups in China and southeast Asia have thus far been focused on mainly homopolymer grades

Hence some market players are hopeful that spreads between homopolymer and copolymer grades could be maintained at least in the near term

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY YAW MIN JIE AND YUANLIN KOH JANUARY 2019

POLYSTYRENE

Asiarsquos polystyrene (PS) prices shall take strong cues from volatility in upstream feedstock styrene monomer (SM) as margins are a main driving force for liquidity in the regional markets

The PS prices largely mirrored the movements of feedstock SM last year they plunged to an intra-year low of $1220tonne and $1285tonne CFR (cost amp freight) China in November in tandem with SM for both general purpose (GP) and high-impact (HI) grades

The SM prices as a matter of fact hit an intra-year low of $98250tonne CFR China over the same period ICIS data showed

ASIArsquoS POLYSTYRENE TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDSTOCK VOLATILITY

Demand wise buying interest is expected to pick up slightly in the first quarter in key market China as the manufacturing sector gears up ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities

Traditionally China is a huge PS consumer raking in 600000-700000 tonnes on a yearly basis

Around 10 of the total PS output in Asia is fed into China one of the top buyers in the region

The total capacity of plants in northeast and southeast Asia is estimated to be around 766m tonnes in 2019

PS resins are used for packaging toys consumer electronics and a variety of consumer items including utensils and disposable food-ware

ldquoThe mood of the market is more optimistic [this year] because US has agreed not to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and thus US demand for Chinese PS end-products will not be adversely affectedrdquo a northeast Asian producer commented

It was agreed on 1 December that Washington would not raise tariffs on $200bn Chinese goods from 10 to 25 from 1 January 2019

The US is a key importer of PS end-products

Meanwhile with several SM plants in northeast Asia and the Middle East scheduled for turnarounds from January 2019 a cut in supply would bolster the feedstock prices and support PS offers

The situation however can be a double-edge sword

The margins could narrow if higher PS offers fail to inspire buyers

ldquoThere is no increase in downstream capacities in 2019 This may prompt a cut in PS run rates againrdquo one PS trader said

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Source ICIS

In a swift response to falling prices Chinese PS producers reduced their run rates and curbed supply for December and January

ldquoSuppliers in China cut their run rates to around 70 and above as they had purchased SM earlier at higher prices rendering their margins narrower since PS is softer now given sluggish seasonal demand and falling feedstock pricesrdquo a regional distributor said

The market is on the edge over the price movements of SM in the new year as the product is regarded a key driver in determining PS pricing trends

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

In the Middle East the buyers prefer to source within the region and rely less on Asia on the back of competitive rates on a delivered basis flexible payment terms and shorter delivery times

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Source ICIS

Already the buying interest for Asian PS has waned in the Middle East

The Middle East buyers tend to seek Asian material only when the regional supplier has sold out all its cargoes and at small quantities

The demand in the Middle East is likely to be stable-to-soft in the near term during the seasonal lull in the first quarter

In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) the market is optimistic about the peak tourism season in the first quarter because of clement weather conditions

Therefore the consumption of food disposables would be higher

In south Asia market players are upbeat about the near term when buyers would replenish their inventory levels after months of paltry purchases

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

In the Middle East the buyers prefer to source within the region and rely less on Asia on the back of competitive rates on a delivered basis flexible payment terms and shorter delivery times

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

Source ICIS

Already the buying interest for Asian PS has waned in the Middle East

The Middle East buyers tend to seek Asian material only when the regional supplier has sold out all its cargoes and at small quantities

The demand in the Middle East is likely to be stable-to-soft in the near term during the seasonal lull in the first quarter

In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) the market is optimistic about the peak tourism season in the first quarter because of clement weather conditions

Therefore the consumption of food disposables would be higher

In south Asia market players are upbeat about the near term when buyers would replenish their inventory levels after months of paltry purchases

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY JONATHAN CHOU JANUARY 2019

POLYVINYL CHLORIDE (PVC)

Sustained demand in India for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and increased safety concerns in China are likely to lend support to firmer prices in the first quarter of 2019

In 2018 PVC prices saw a downturn in May and June due to ample supply from US cargoes Prices recovered slightly and then fell again in late September amid depreciating Asian currencies caused by the US-China trade war as well as continued supply from the US

For the week ended 21 December average prices of multi-purpose PVC remained stable at $880tonne CFR China reflecting scant discussions

PVC material headed to southeast Asia were assessed at an average of $86750tonne CFR SE Asia as some sellers reduced their January-loading indications amid a year-end seasonal lull in demand

The trade war between US and China certainly affected the PVC market in 2018 In late August tariffs on 25 kicked in on US shipments of precursor ethylene dichloride (EDC) to China

US EDC export volumes into Asia also fell last year as US producers kept their volumes for captive use into PVC production

Tariffs of 10 were imposed by the US on finished goods containing PVC from China in late September While these

ASIA PVC LIKELY TO BE STABLE-TO-FIRM IN Q1

tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25 on 01 January 2019 the hikes were delayed by 90 days as both countries enter talks to resolve the dispute

Despite the temporary truce outcomes of the US-China trade war still remain unclear and continues to weigh on sentiments in the region

In China ongoing safety inspections ordered by the government are likely to continue affecting production rates in the country

The increased safety concerns come after an accident in late November near a carbide-based PVC producer in Hebei The blast caused 23 fatalities and was caused by a leakage of flammable vinyl chloride

While around 80 of Chinese producers are carbide-based and get their feedstock from limestone and coke market sources say both carbide-based and ethylene-based producers are affected by the ongoing inspections

This may lend support to higher prices amid tighter supply in the country

Apart from China India was another key player in the Asian PVC market last year and both countries will continue to play instrumental roles in 2019

Sentiments in India were particularly affected by the rupee devaluation against the US dollar in 2018 caused by the US-China trade war

On the other hand the south Asian countryrsquos economy is expected to grow at 75 percent in fiscal year 201920 reflecting robust private consumption and strengthening investment according to the World Bank Overall demand for PVC is likely to strengthen on infrastructure demand and housing projects

Nevertheless any currency headwinds will continue to be a potential disruptive force on Indiarsquos buying sentiments this year

Southeast Asian importers are expected to be monitoring the Chinese market as well When Chinese domestic prices are higher than import prices very limited or no Chinese cargoes will be exported Buyers in southeast Asia then have to source for other alternatives typically at higher prices

PLASTICS amp POLYMERS

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY ZIN XUAN HO JANUARY 2019

INDIA PVC DEMAND TO RECOVER IN Q1 ON AGRICULTURAL PIPES

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in India is expected to improve in early 2019 in view of the peak season for pipe laying in the region

Traditionally stronger demand for pipes from the agricultural sector is expected to support prices during Q1 2019

In 2018 the market saw seasonal demand in Q1 while prices were largely stable from May to September after which prices declined owing to poor demand in the wake of an extended monsoon season

Lower crop prices for the year also affected PVC sales as farmers were cautious with investments due to a tighter cash flow

The US-China trade war has also impacted the market with the US dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate reaching all-time lows in the year

This caused Indian buyers to be sidelined for most of the year opting only to buy as-needed from domestic suppliers where possible to recoup margins

The low interest in imports and excess supply prompted many producers to decrease offers resulting in an all-year low price in November 2018

However players believe the prices had bottomed out in mid-December and demand is slowly improving ahead of the seasonal peak starting in January

The Indian PVC market is now poised for a recovery as players believe activity should increase in the new year

About 70 per cent of the total demand for PVC in India comes from the pipes sector as PVC is widely used in the manufacture of underground irrigation and water distribution pipes

The remaining 30 percent of demand comes from the construction sector where PVC is used to manufacture films profiles insulation and in calendaring applications

The first quarter of 2019 is expected to see better sales and higher demand although a slowdown is expected ahead of the the upcoming elections in April

In the Middle East trends for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) were similar

The region saw an uptick in demand in the beginning of the year from stock replenishing activities

There was a fall from March to May as demand dwindled but slowly recovered and prices were mostly stable from June to September

The market then saw a dip in prices as demand tapered off amid an unexpectedly weak Q3

Exporters reduced offers in a bid to attract buyers but majority of the regionrsquos buyers were well-supplied by a local producer and said they saw no need to order import cargo given higher prices and longer delivery times

Inventories were high due to limited demand for finished PVC pipes and buyers were mostly purchasing only on an as-needed basis from a major domestic producer whose prices were deemed more competitive

Much of the demand for PVC in the Middle East comes from the construction sector where PVC is used for making pipes

Last year Dubai approved the biggest ever budget for 2018 to ramp up infrastructure spending ahead of Expo 2020 which was expected to give a push to demand for PVC within the UAE from 2018 onwards

Contrary to expectations demand was dull for much of 2018

While the region saw traditional market lulls in the months of the Ramadan and Eid ul-Fitr holidays much of the weak sentiment was attributed to the US-China trade wars which prompted most players to remain cautious about volume import purchases

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

01-Jun-2018

11-May-2018

20-Apr-2

018

30-Mar-2

018

09-Mar-2

018

16-Feb-2018

26-Jan-2018

USD

tonn

e

PVC CFR India Assessment Spot Close-weighted Range (Mid) USDtonnePVC CFR India Assessment Spot Close-weighted Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

this did not happen as the ongoing trade war weakened market sentiment increasing cautiousness in the way players approached purchasing

US-origin cargoes were deemed too expensive for majority of the buyers and offers attracted limited interest for much of the year

Other offers from Europe and Asia were met with similarly weak interest in view of higher prices and longer delivery windows

Market sources conceded that the cash flow issues plaguing the region in recent years also contributed to the lack of demand for PVC in the region as investments in construction slowed

Looking ahead demand in the region is not expected to show great improvement in the near future considering the limited market for finished goods

This is because the region continues to be affected by slow investments in construction cash flow issues and high prices of imports

While the market expected rehabilitation efforts following wars in Syria and Iraq to drive construction and building activity thereby supporting greater PVC demand in 2018

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

01-Jun-2018

11-May-2018

20-Apr-2

018

30-Mar-2

018

09-Mar-2

018

16-Feb-2018

26-Jan-2018US

Dto

nne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

BY ZIN XUAN HO JANUARY 2019

INDIA PVC DEMAND TO RECOVER IN Q1 ON AGRICULTURAL PIPES

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in India is expected to improve in early 2019 in view of the peak season for pipe laying in the region

Traditionally stronger demand for pipes from the agricultural sector is expected to support prices during Q1 2019

In 2018 the market saw seasonal demand in Q1 while prices were largely stable from May to September after which prices declined owing to poor demand in the wake of an extended monsoon season

Lower crop prices for the year also affected PVC sales as farmers were cautious with investments due to a tighter cash flow

The US-China trade war has also impacted the market with the US dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate reaching all-time lows in the year

This caused Indian buyers to be sidelined for most of the year opting only to buy as-needed from domestic suppliers where possible to recoup margins

The low interest in imports and excess supply prompted many producers to decrease offers resulting in an all-year low price in November 2018

However players believe the prices had bottomed out in mid-December and demand is slowly improving ahead of the seasonal peak starting in January

The Indian PVC market is now poised for a recovery as players believe activity should increase in the new year

About 70 per cent of the total demand for PVC in India comes from the pipes sector as PVC is widely used in the manufacture of underground irrigation and water distribution pipes

The remaining 30 percent of demand comes from the construction sector where PVC is used to manufacture films profiles insulation and in calendaring applications

The first quarter of 2019 is expected to see better sales and higher demand although a slowdown is expected ahead of the the upcoming elections in April

In the Middle East trends for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) were similar

The region saw an uptick in demand in the beginning of the year from stock replenishing activities

There was a fall from March to May as demand dwindled but slowly recovered and prices were mostly stable from June to September

The market then saw a dip in prices as demand tapered off amid an unexpectedly weak Q3

Exporters reduced offers in a bid to attract buyers but majority of the regionrsquos buyers were well-supplied by a local producer and said they saw no need to order import cargo given higher prices and longer delivery times

Inventories were high due to limited demand for finished PVC pipes and buyers were mostly purchasing only on an as-needed basis from a major domestic producer whose prices were deemed more competitive

Much of the demand for PVC in the Middle East comes from the construction sector where PVC is used for making pipes

Last year Dubai approved the biggest ever budget for 2018 to ramp up infrastructure spending ahead of Expo 2020 which was expected to give a push to demand for PVC within the UAE from 2018 onwards

Contrary to expectations demand was dull for much of 2018

While the region saw traditional market lulls in the months of the Ramadan and Eid ul-Fitr holidays much of the weak sentiment was attributed to the US-China trade wars which prompted most players to remain cautious about volume import purchases

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

01-Jun-2018

11-May-2018

20-Apr-2

018

30-Mar-2

018

09-Mar-2

018

16-Feb-2018

26-Jan-2018

USD

tonn

e

PVC CFR India Assessment Spot Close-weighted Range (Mid) USDtonnePVC CFR India Assessment Spot Close-weighted Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

this did not happen as the ongoing trade war weakened market sentiment increasing cautiousness in the way players approached purchasing

US-origin cargoes were deemed too expensive for majority of the buyers and offers attracted limited interest for much of the year

Other offers from Europe and Asia were met with similarly weak interest in view of higher prices and longer delivery windows

Market sources conceded that the cash flow issues plaguing the region in recent years also contributed to the lack of demand for PVC in the region as investments in construction slowed

Looking ahead demand in the region is not expected to show great improvement in the near future considering the limited market for finished goods

This is because the region continues to be affected by slow investments in construction cash flow issues and high prices of imports

While the market expected rehabilitation efforts following wars in Syria and Iraq to drive construction and building activity thereby supporting greater PVC demand in 2018

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

01-Jun-2018

11-May-2018

20-Apr-2

018

30-Mar-2

018

09-Mar-2

018

16-Feb-2018

26-Jan-2018US

Dto

nne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS

Copyright 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content

back to contents

this did not happen as the ongoing trade war weakened market sentiment increasing cautiousness in the way players approached purchasing

US-origin cargoes were deemed too expensive for majority of the buyers and offers attracted limited interest for much of the year

Other offers from Europe and Asia were met with similarly weak interest in view of higher prices and longer delivery windows

Market sources conceded that the cash flow issues plaguing the region in recent years also contributed to the lack of demand for PVC in the region as investments in construction slowed

Looking ahead demand in the region is not expected to show great improvement in the near future considering the limited market for finished goods

This is because the region continues to be affected by slow investments in construction cash flow issues and high prices of imports

While the market expected rehabilitation efforts following wars in Syria and Iraq to drive construction and building activity thereby supporting greater PVC demand in 2018

Request a demo

Find out moreRequest a trial

INDUSTRY NEWS Our extensive global network of local experts report breaking news stories covering chemical markets and events influencing commodity prices and affecting your daily business decisions Stay fully informed and support your planning with

bull Real-time round-the-clock news bull Market analysis and the likely impact on your markets bull Production and force majeure news

FORECAST REPORTS The ICIS Price Forecast Reports include a rolling 12-month price forecast current and historical prices for key commodities with information on upstream markets and major industry drivers that affect the prices and margins of the commodities you are tracking Our reports also enable you with a bigger picture of macroeconomic factors that are shaping the chemical markets with an economic outlook alternative scenarios and projections to help you plan for the future

SUPPLY amp DEMAND DATABASE Receive end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain for over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical and projections from 1978 to 2040 The database enables you to

bull Put the local or regional scenario in a global context to support your planning

bull Validate commercial and growth strategies

ICIS offers a unique combination of analytics tools pricing data and market information for over 180 commodities across all key regions designed to help you navigate and optimise opportunities in an ever-changing market making complex analytics simple for you to

bull Spot opportunities minimise risk and pre-empt competition

bull Shape future strategies and expand your opportunities

bull Maintain a competitive advantage and negotiate better prices with other market players

Analytics tools for the petrochemical market include

Live Disruptions Tracker Supply Live Disruptions Tracker Impact Price Drivers Analytics Price Optimisation Analytics Margin Analytics Supply amp Demand Outlooks

Critical market data tools amp expertise

Find out more

PRICING AND ANALYTICS SOLUTIONS

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

11-Jan-2019

14-Dec-2018

23-Nov-2018

02-Nov-2018

12-Oct-2

018

21-Sep-2018

31-Aug-2018

10-Aug-2018

20-Jul-2018

29-Jun-2018

01-Jun-2018

11-May-2018

20-Apr-2

018

30-Mar-2

018

09-Mar-2

018

16-Feb-2018

26-Jan-2018US

Dto

nne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid) USDtonne

PVC CFR GCC Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

PVC CFR Med E Assessment Spot Full Market Range (Mid)

Source ICIS