Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: New Zealandillicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com/...New-Zealand... · New Zealand Legal Domestic Sales of cigarettes and loose tobacco were estimated

Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: New ZealandPrepared by Oxford EconomicsNovember 2017

22

DisclaimerThe Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Report (the “Report”) on the illicit tobacco trade in selected Asian markets (including Australia and New Zealand) has been prepared by Oxford Economics (OE). OE enjoyed academic freedom and full editorial control of the Report. We are grateful for the inputs and data received from public sector and industry stakeholders.

OE prepared the Report in accordance with specific terms of reference agreed between Philip Morris International Management SA, an affiliate of Philip Morris International (PM), and OE. Financial support for the Report was provided by PM. OE assume all responsibility for the Report analysis, findings, and conclusion. The terms of reference under which OE were engaged by Philip Morris International Management SA are detailed in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Methodological Overview Report, available to download via the following link illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com

33 | New Zealand Market Summary

New Zealand: Legal Domestic Sales

3

1 A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.

2Price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes in October 2016, based on PM data.

Legal Domestic Sales:

2.5 bn cigarettes

Including RYO equivalent

New Zealand

Price:

NZD 21.6 USD 15.8

New Zealand Legal Domestic Sales of cigarettes and loose tobacco were estimated at 2.5 billion cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) in 2016, a 5.0% decline from 2015.1

BAT is the dominant manufacturer in the market, accounting for two-thirds of Legal Domestic Sales. PM and Imperial Tobacco account for the large majority of the remaining one-third of sales.

Cigarette prices have increased progressively over the past four years, with annual increases in Excise Tax implemented at the start of each year. Excise Tax has been increased by 10% at the beginning of each year since 2013 (on top of the annual index-linked increase). The 2016 Budget stipulated further annual increases of 10% up to and including January 2020.

As a consequence, nominal cigarette prices in New Zealand are the highest in the Asia Pacific region, at NZD 21.6 per pack of 20 cigarettes (USD 15.8) in 2016 based on the Most Sold Brand.2 This is USD 0.4 higher than in Australia, and over USD 6.0 more expensive than in Singapore.

The legislated future increases in Excise Tax for the years ahead are set to take the price of a pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes to an estimated NZD 32 by 2020.

The increases in Excise Tax, along with plain packaging legislation, which was introduced by Parliament in September 2016, are part of an ongoing government drive to cut the proportion of the adult population smoking to below 5% by 2025.

In November 2014 the passenger duty-free personal import allowance for adults entering New Zealand was cut to 50 cigarettes, or 50 grams of tobacco product.

44

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

201620152014201320122011201020092008

10.3%

11.1%11.3%

10.9%14.5%

0.29 0.310.35

0.39

0.490.44

0.610.67

0.55

NZD

per c

igar

ette

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes

Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent

NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24

18

15

6

3

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015

93.6

5.2

90.0

9.0

NZD

mn

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)

Illicit Consumption

Legal Domestic Consumption

1.1NDL 0.9

NDL

21

9

12

2,605 2,636

Ciga

rette

s mn

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20162015

2,439

137 238

2,374


Illicit Consumption


30NDL

25NDL

Actual ExciseTax revenues

Estimated Excise Tax Loss

500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 2016/17FY 2015/16

1,710 1,677

16686

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

201620152014201320122011201020092008

10.3%

11.1%11.3%

10.9%14.5%

0.29 0.310.35

0.39

0.490.44

0.610.67

0.55

NZD

per c

igar

ette

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion




18

15

6

3

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015

93.6

5.2

90.0

9.0

NZD

mn


Illicit Consumption


1.1NDL 0.9

NDL

21

9

12

2,605 2,636

Ciga

rette

s mn

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20162015

2,439

137 238

2,374


Illicit Consumption


30NDL

25NDL



500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 2016/17FY 2015/16

1,710 1,677

16686

Source: New Zealand Customs 3 Rate applied in October of each year to the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes. Includes Individual Excise Tax increases as well as annual index-linked rises.

Source: Oxford Economics based on PM data 4 Price per pack of the Most Sold Brand in October of each year. The Most Sold Brand changed from “Holiday” to “Pall Mall Baseline” in 2015. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.

New Zealand: Excise duty applied to cigarettes3

New Zealand: Legal Domestic Sales and prices4

New Zealand Market Summary |

55

New Zealand: Tobacco Consumption

Source: Oxford Economics1The Empty Pack Survey was undertaken in 2016 Q2 (see Report methodology for more details).2 New Zealand Ministry of Health annual tobacco returns 2016. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in their analysis of annual tobacco returns.

3 Illicit Tobacco Research Updates, Colmar Brunton (2015 and 2016).4ibid5 Some questions related to the frequency and volume of illicit RYO purchases that would otherwise facilitate an estimate of illicit RYO were omitted from the Colmar Brunton Illicit Tobacco Research consumer survey in 2016.

6 See http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/88414136/government-at-high-risk-of-losing-10-million-annually-if-tobacco-black-market-surges and http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/customs-makes-1-4-million-tobacco-bust.html

7 2015 figures have been restated based on updated data on Legal Domestic Sales, sourced from the New Zealand Ministry of Health annual tobacco returns. All references to cigarette consumption includes RYO equivalent. It is recognised that illicit RYO originates from both Non-Domestic and Domestic home-grown sources; however it is not possible to separate the two, and therefore for the purposes of this Report we consider all illicit RYO volumes to be of Non-Domestic origin.

| New Zealand Market Summary

New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption7

2015 2016 % change

2015-16 Cigarettes mn % Cigarettes

mn %

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 2,439 93.6 2,374 90.0 -2.7

Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 2,593 2,464 -5.0

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes 154 91 -41.2

Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND) 166 6.4 263 10.0 58.1

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL) 30 1.1 25 0.9 -16.1

Non-Domestic Illicit 128 4.9 229 8.7 78.9

Illicit RYO 8 0.3 9 0.3 1.2

Domestic Illicit 0 0.0 0 0.0 n/a

Total Consumption 2,605 100.0 2,636 100.0 1.2

Total Illicit Consumption 137 5.2 238 9.0 74.1

The results from the Empty Pack Survey,1 combined with annual tobacco returns sourced from the New Zealand Ministry of Health,2 and consumer survey data,3 were used to estimate Total Consumption of cigarettes in New Zealand. Total Consumption (legal and illicit) was estimated at 2.6 billion cigarettes in 2016. Of this, an estimated 90.0% or 2.4 billion cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) is Legal Domestic Consumption, 0.9% is Non-Domestic Legal, and 9.0% or 238 million cigarettes is Illicit Consumption. Total Consumption was modestly higher in 2016 than a year earlier, rising by 1.2%. This was underpinned by a 74.1% rise in Illicit Consumption, with Legal Domestic Sales falling by 5.0% over the same period. The share of Illicit Consumption is estimated to have risen by 3.8pp between 2015 and 2016, equivalent to around 100 million illicit cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) consumed. The 2016 Colmar Brunton Illicit Tobacco Research consumer survey found that respondents who identify themselves as daily RYO smokers have a higher propensity to purchase cheap cigarettes and tobacco compared with daily cigarette smokers, and that 8.2% reported buying cheap cigarettes or illicit RYO in the last 12 months, up from 7.6% in 2015.4

Despite this modest increase reported by daily RYO smokers, and given that RYO illicit accounts for such a small share of Total Consumption, Colmar Brunton concluded that in aggregate there was no significant shift in the reported purchase of illicit tobacco products in New Zealand in comparison with 2015. We have therefore applied the same share of illicit RYO calculated in 2015 to estimate 2016 figures for Illicit Consumption.5

The growth in Illicit Consumption illustrated by this Report is consistent with observations from New Zealand Customs, who have identified “notable growth” in New Zealand’s illicit market, based on a 2016 report obtained by media outlets via the Official Information Act. The Customs department has remained vigilant to the influx of illicit tobacco products, recently making its largest-ever tobacco seizure of 5.7 tonnes with a retail value of NZD 1.4 million.6

66

Source: Oxford Economics 1Cigarettes and RYO equivalent

Source: Oxford Economics 2Cigarettes and RYO equivalent

New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption (% of Total Consumption)1

New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption (number of cigarettes)2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

201620152014201320122011201020092008

10.3%

11.1%11.3%

10.9%14.5%

0.29 0.310.35

0.39

0.490.44

0.610.67

0.55

NZD

per c

igar

ette

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

201620152014201320122011201020092008Ci

gare

ttes b

n%

of T

otal

Con

sum

ptio

nNZD per pack of 20 cigarettes



18

15

6

3

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015

93.6

5.2

90.0

9.0

NZD

mn


Illicit Consumption


1.1NDL 0.9

NDL

21

9

12

2,605 2,636

Ciga

rette

s mn

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20162015

2,439

137 238

2,374


Illicit Consumption


30NDL

25NDL



500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 2016/17FY 2015/16

1,710 1,677

16686

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

201620152014201320122011201020092008

10.3%

11.1%11.3%

10.9%14.5%

0.29 0.310.35

0.39

0.490.44

0.610.67

0.55

NZD

per c

igar

ette

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion




18

15

6

3

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015

93.6

5.2

90.0

9.0

NZD

mn


Illicit Consumption


1.1NDL 0.9

NDL

21

9

12

2,605 2,636

Ciga

rette

s mn

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20162015

2,439

137 238

2,374


Illicit Consumption


30NDL

25NDL



500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 2016/17FY 2015/16

1,710 1,677

16686


77

New Zealand: Government Finances New Zealand operates a weight-based-specific Excise Tax system. As of 1st January 2016, for manufactured cigarettes weighing less than or equal to 0.8kg of actual tobacco content per thousand cigarettes, a rate of NZD 668.51 per thousand cigarettes applied. For manufactured cigarettes containing more than 0.8kg of actual tobacco content per thousand cigarettes, as well as smoking tobacco, homogenised or reconstituted tobacco, the duty rate was NZD 952.62 per kg of tobacco content. For all other tobacco products, including snuff, cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos, the duty rate was NZD 835.61 per kg of tobacco content. The Government announced in the 2012 budget a series of four annual 10% Excise Tax increases between 2013 and 2016. The final increase in this series was implemented on 1st January 2016. The 2016 Budget then legislated for a new series of four annual increases at the same rate, beginning on 1st January 2017. In addition to the 10% annual increase, Excise Tax rates are subject to an annual indexation increase, based on the Consumer Price Index (excluding credit services). Excise Tax increases are implemented on 1st January every year and are based on the 12-month period to September the previous year. As such, the applicable Excise Tax rates rose by 10.4% on 1st January 2017, to NZD 738.13 per thousand cigarettes for manufactured cigarettes with 0.8kg of actual tobacco or below per thousand cigarettes, NZD 1,051.83 per kg of tobacco content for manufactured cigarettes containing more than 0.8kg of actual tobacco, smoking tobacco, homogenised or reconstituted tobacco, and NZD 922.64 per kg of tobacco content for all other products. A 15% GST tax is also levied on all retail sales of cigarettes. Total revenues from Excise Tax duties on tobacco were reported at NZD 1.7 billion in the 2016/17 fiscal year. This represents a 2.0% decline in actual revenues, compared with an estimated 4.0% decline in Legal Domestic Sales over the fiscal year, which runs from July to June.1

Our estimates indicate that the Tax Loss associated with Illicit Consumption of cigarettes and RYO in the fiscal year 2016/17 amounted to NZD 200 million (USD 142 million), representing an increase of 89.2% in comparison with the 2015/16 fiscal year. The Excise Tax Loss as a share of total potential Excise Tax revenues was equal to 9.0%, an increase of 4.2pp compared with the previous fiscal year.

Source: New Zealand Treasury Department and Oxford Economics based on PM dataEstimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased adjusted for fiscal year, which runs from July to June. Includes loose tobacco. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.1Based on PM IMS data on Legal Domestic Sales.

New Zealand: Actual government revenues and estimated Tax Loss1

2015-16 fiscal year

2016-17 fiscal year % change

in local currency

2015/16-2016/17NZD mn

USD mn

NZD mn

USD mn

Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco 1,710 1,142 1,677 1,195 -2.0%

Estimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased (cigarettes mn) 128 229 79.0%

Estimated volume of illicit loose tobacco purchased (cigarettes equivalent mn) 8 8 -1.8%

Estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption 106 71 200 142 89.2%

Lost excise revenue 86 58 166 118 92.2%

Lost VAT revenue 19 13 34 24 76.0%

Excise Tax Loss as % of potential total Excise Tax revenues 4.8% 9.0%


88

Source: New Zealand Treasury Department and Oxford Economics based on PM data

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

201620152014201320122011201020092008

10.3%

11.1%11.3%

10.9%14.5%

0.29 0.310.35

0.39

0.490.44

0.610.67

0.55

NZD

per c

igar

ette

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion




18

15

6

3

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015

93.6

5.2

90.0

9.0

NZD

mn


Illicit Consumption


1.1NDL 0.9

NDL

21

9

12

2,605 2,636

Ciga

rette

s mn

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

20162015

2,439

137 238

2,374


Illicit Consumption


30NDL

25NDL



500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 2016/17FY 2015/16

1,710 1,677

16686

New Zealand: Actual government revenues and estimated Excise Tax Loss


99

Australia 64 mn(+2.4%)

China24 mn

(+177.5%)

South Korea

34 mn(+143.5%)

Other / Unspecified

52 mn(+48.0%)

Other Duty-Free labelled

products55 mn(+630.7%)

Total238 mn(+74.1%)

Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows, including illicit RYO, rose by 74.1% in 2016.1 This was underpinned by a sharp rise in the volume of illicit cigarettes consumed, with illicit RYO consumption estimated to have remained broadly stable. As a consequence, illicit cigarettes accounted for 96.4% of total Illicit Consumption, up from 93.8% in 2015. The 2016 Empty Pack Survey indicates a more varied mix of Inflows of illicit cigarettes in 2016 compared with the previous year. The growth in the volume of Illicit Consumption in 2016 was underpinned by a sharp rise in Duty-Free labelled products to 55 million, up from 7 million in 2015, while illicit cigarettes intended for final retail sale in China and South Korea both more than doubled over the same period. By contrast, illicit Inflows from Australia remained relatively stable in 2016. Outflows to Australia fell from 154 million cigarettes to 90 million over the same period, while Empty Pack Surveys in other markets do not suggest substantive flows of legally sold cigarettes from New Zealand to other markets in the Asia Pacific region, consistent with large price differentials between markets.2

New Zealand: Trade Flows

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics. 1 It is recognised that illicit RYO originates from both Non-Domestic and Domestic home-grown sources; however it is not possible to separate the two, and therefore for the purposes of this Report we consider all illicit RYO volumes to be of Non-Domestic origin.

2 Note that estimated Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes are based only on identified Inflows in the other markets covered in this Report and may therefore be an underestimate.

3Including illicit RYO. Figures in brackets reflect % change from 2015.

Cigarettes mn

2015 2016

Illicit RYO 8 9Australia 63 64South Korea 14 34China 9 24Other Duty-Free labelled products 7 55Other / Unspecified 35 52

Total 137 238

Illicit RYO9 mn(+1.2%)

New Zealand: Origin of total Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows3


1010

New Zealand: Consumption breakdown 2016

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics

0

0 1,000

1,000

2,000

2,000

3,000

3,000

Cigarettes mn

Cigarettes mn

Total 2,636

Legal Domestic

Sales2,464

Legal Domestic

Consumption2,374

Australia 640

South Korea 341

Illicit RYO 90

0Other/ Unspecified 52

0China 24

24Other Duty-

Free labelled products

55Illicit Inflows

Non-Domestic Legal Inflows

Outflows of duty paid 91


1111

Source Comment

Euromonitor Passport, 2017 Euromonitor estimates an Illicit Incidence of 1.6% in 2016. The methodology, sampling, and coverage are unknown, so it is difficult to assess the robustness of this estimate.

Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) New Zealand, Update of Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products in New Zealand in 2013. Retrieved via http://www.ash.org.nz/the-evidence/we-produce/research-on-the-illicit-tobacco-market/

Analysis by ASH based on data on the import and seizure of legal and illegal tobacco in New Zealand from Customs, combined with previous literature which was used to calculate interception rates of illegal tobacco being smuggled and “home grown” in New Zealand, suggest an Illicit Incidence of between 1.8% and 3.9% in 2010-13 (including RYO).

Marshall et al. Missed tobacco tax revenue from ‘foreign’ packs in New Zealand: results from a discarded pack collection study, NZMJ 22 November 2013, Vol 126 No 1386. Retrieved via https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/read-the-journal/all-issues/2010-2019/2013/vol-126-no-1386/lett-wilson

A total of 1,776 discarded packs were collected from 7 locations across New Zealand between November 2012 and January 2013, suggesting a Non-Domestic share in Total Consumption of 5.8%. However no attempt was made to subtract Non-Domestic Legal consumption to derive an estimate of Illicit Consumption.

New Zealand: Other estimates

New Zealand: Alternative estimates of Illicit Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40%

“Bottom up” consumption(2009)

Oxford Economics(2015)

0.6

35.7

0

5

10

15

20

25%

Vietnam Tobacco

Association(2014)

“Bottom up” consumption

(2014)

Nielsen Retail Audit (2015)

Euromonitor (2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)

22.220.9

17.1 18.6 18.2

0

3

6

9

12

15%

“Bottom up”consumption

(2014)

Euromonitor(2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)

12.0

5.63.7

0

1

2

3

4

5%

'Bottom up'consumption (2014)

Euromonitor(2016)


2.5

3.9

4.7

0

3

6

9

12

15%

“Bottom up”consumption (2014)

Euromonitor (2016)

Oxford Economics (2016)

13.111.0

5.1

0

10

20

30

40

50%

“Bottom up” consumption (2013)

Nielsen(2014)

Euromonitor(2016)


43.736.7 38.8

23.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5%

Euromonitor (2016)Oxford Economics (2016)

2.3

0.9

0

3

6

9

12

15%

Ahsan et al.(2013)

Euromonitor(2016)

Gadjah MadaUniversity

(2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)

12.2 12.1

8.06.9

0

2

4

6

8

10%

ASH (2013)Euromonitor(2016)


8.7

1.6

Loose Tobacco

Cigarettes

0.3

2.0

0.8


1212

New Zealand: Data Sources

Primary source Calculation Comments

Legal Domestic Sales (LDS)

Annual tobacco returns filed by manufacturers and importers with the New Zealand Ministry of Health.

— —

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets covered in this Report.

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets used to identify the presence of packs bearing New Zealand market-specific labelling (e.g. health warnings, tax stamps etc.).

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes to other markets are estimated at around 91 million cigarettes, nearly all of which are destined for Australia.

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)

— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of legal sales.

Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes refer only to Outflows to other markets.

Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND)

— Sum of Non-Domestic Legal and Non-Domestic Illicit.

—


— Estimated using passenger data, smoking rates, and passenger duty-free personal import allowance.

Maximum theoretical amount an individual can carry across a border. Passenger data from Statistics New Zealand.

Non-Domestic Illicit

Empty Pack Survey and Colmar Brunton Survey.

Based on the Empty Pack Survey, Colmar Brunton data, and OE estimates.

Estimates derived from the Empty Pack Survey conducted in 2016 Q2. An estimate for loose tobacco has been added based on analysis of the Colmar Brunton Consumer Surveys (2015 and 2016). See Report methodology for more details.

Domestic Illicit — Zero under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.

There is assumed to be no under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.

Total Illicit Consumption

— Sum of Non-Domestic Illicit and Domestic Illicit.

—

Total Consumption

— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes, plus estimated Non-Domestic Legal consumption, plus estimated Illicit Consumption.

The IT Flows Model estimate of consumption is 2.6 billion cigarettes for 2016.

Total Tax Loss — Total Illicit Consumption multiplied by the weighted average tax rates (Excise Tax and GST).

See Report methodology for more details.


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