Asia Development Scenarios

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Asia 2018-2028Development Scenarios

Edited by Niklas L.P Swanstrm .

Asia 2018-2028: Development Scenarios

Niklas L.P. Swanstrm (Ed.)

Institute for Security and Development Policy Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.isdp.eu

Asia 2018-2028: Development Scenarios is published by the Institute for Security and Development. The Institute is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and cooperates closely with research centers worldwide. Through its Silk Road Studies Program, the Institute runs a joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins Universitys School of Advanced International Studies. The Institute is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. It is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion. Institute for Security and Development Policy, June 2008 ISBN: 978-91-85937-32-5 Printed in Singapore

Distributed in Europe by: Institute for Security and Development Policy Vstra Finnbodavgen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Tel. +46-841056953; Fax. +46-86403370 Email: info@isdp.eu Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: caci2@jhuadig.admin.jhu.edu

Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Dr. Bert Edstrm at: bedstrom@isdp.eu

Table of Contents

Executive Summary............................................................................................ 1Northeast Asia ...................................................................................................................... 1 Southeast Asia....................................................................................................................... 5 Southwest Asia ................................................................................................................... 10

Chapter 1: Northeast Asia ................................................................................ 14Introduction......................................................................................................................... 14 Demographic Outlook........................................................................................................ 16 Economic Development ......................................................................................................21 Energy Demand and Supply.............................................................................................. 25 Domestic Political Developments..................................................................................... 30 Military Development........................................................................................................ 34 Ethnic Relations .................................................................................................................. 39 The Development of Extremist Political Groups............................................................ 41 Geopolitical Development .................................................................................................44 Unresolved Conflicts..........................................................................................................49 Conclusion............................................................................................................................53

Chapter 2: Southeast Asia ................................................................................ 55Introduction......................................................................................................................... 55 Demographic Outlook........................................................................................................60 Economic Development ..................................................................................................... 65 Environmental Issues ..........................................................................................................71 Energy Production and SLOC Security Issues ................................................................76 Domestic Political Developments and Governance ........................................................ 81 Development in Religious and Ethnic Conflicts .............................................................86 Military Development........................................................................................................94 Geopolitical Development .................................................................................................98 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................107

Chapter 3: Southwest Asia .............................................................................. 110Introduction........................................................................................................................ 110 Demographic Outlook....................................................................................................... 117 Economic Development .................................................................................................... 121 Energy Production and Transit ........................................................................................126

Ethnic Relations ..................................................................................................................131 Domestic Political Developments.................................................................................... 135 Military Development.......................................................................................................140 Geopolitical Development ............................................................................................... 144 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................149

Editors Note

Asia has been the focus for scholars and decision-makers for many years and its importance seems to be increasing politically, economically, as well as militarily. The region is not only an important engine for economic growth but also a region where we see a plethora of political changes and developments occurring and, potentially more important, where we see the emergence of new security threats (and solutions). Whereas many regions of the world seem to be stagnant in one or several aspects, Asia is moving both forward and backward in all imaginable aspects: a fact that not only creates problems with predictability, but also creates insecurity about the future, not least for business. Despite this, economic growth is increasingly undergirding the development of the region, and more and more states from outside of the region rely on continued growth in Asia for their own security and prosperity. Increased reliance therefore calls for a greater understanding of the dynamics of the region and preparedness for the future. This book is designed to give a greater understanding of the future and offers an overview of regional developments in Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest Asia with a more detailed focus on the key actors within each region. It has taken a longerterm focus than most other studies, with projections ranging up to the year 2028. This of course impacts the degree to which anything can be said with certainty, and consequently some leaps of faith are inevitable. In thus doing, the book creates scenarios of development outcomes in key issues that range from the probable to the possible. Any conclusions drawn from this study are therefore tentative and are aimed at facilitating long-term thinking rather than providing cast-iron forecasts. The studies were ordered by the Swedish Armed Forces HQ, Supreme Commanders Staff (Plans & Policy) to be used within the framework for the Armed Forces Long Term Strategic Trends Analysis. No views in this study can be attributed to the Swedish Armed Forces HQ or staff associated with it, as the authors are solely responsible for the analysis and content. On the contrary, ISDP was given full freedom in writing this book and the HQ was at no stage involved beyond that of being a generous and innovative sponsor.

Though this study is a collective effort, each individual chapter bears significant marks of individual contributions. Sangsoo Lee has been the coordinating scholar for Northeast Asia, Nicklas Norling has acted as such for Southwest Asia, and Klas Marklund has taken responsibility for Southeast Asia. In the Northeast Asian chapter, Sangsoo Lee has written the Introduction and the chapters on Demographic Developments, Economic Developments, Energy Demand and Supply, Domestic Political Developments, Ethnic Relations, Development of Extremist Political Groups, Geopolitical Development, Unresolved Conflicts, and the Conclusion. Ingolf Kiesow has contributed to many chapters of report, particularly the chapters on Economic Developments, Domestic Political Developments, Energy Demand, Development of Extremist Political Groups, and Geopolitical Developments while Karlis Neretnieks authored the chapter on Military Developments. Niklas Swanstrm has provided most valuable and detailed commentaries on the entire report. In the Southeast Asian chapter, Klas Marklund has written all sections with exception of the chapters on Geopolit