Ashoka Buildcon 4Q FY 2013

7/30/2019 Ashoka Buildcon 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights ConsolidatedY/E March (` cr) 4QFY2013 4QFY2012 3QFY2013 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 650 468 431 38.8 50.9Op. profit 109 94 82 15.6 33.1

Net profit 6 47 13 (86.2) (49.1)Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) posted 4QFY13 results reflect improvement in execution

however bottom-line disappoints owing to lower-than-expected operating

performance, high depreciation and higher tax rate. The company has an order

book of `3,568cr (down by 28% yoy) as of 4QFY2013 thereby converting intoOB-to-sales of 2.3x trailing revenues. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.Mixed set of numbers: On the top-line front, the company reported a robustgrowth of 38.8% yoy to`650cr in 4QFY2013 and was higher than our estimate

by 19.0%. This was mainly on account of pick up in execution pace in under

construction BOT projects. During the quarter, the E&C segment reported revenue

of`586cr (including other income) registering strong growth of 46% yoy and was

higher than our estimate of `462cr. The BOT segment revenues decline by 6%

yoy to`70cr (including other income) in 4QFY2013.On the EBITDAM front, ABLs

margin came in at 16.7%, a dip of 336bp on a yoy basis and was below our estimate

of 23.0% owing to lower margins in the BOT segment and increase in operating

expense. On the bottom line, ABL reported a PAT of`6cr (our estimate was`45cr) in4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 86.2% yoy, owing to lower-than-expected

performance at operating level, high depreciation and higher tax rate (154%).

Outlook and valuation: ABL has a robust order book of `3,568cr (2.3x trailingE&C revenues), which lends revenue visibility. Although a slowdown in order

awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in FY2013, ABL expects

ordering activity to improve going ahead. On back of delay in start of

construction activity owing to various issues (MOEF clearances, land acquisition)

the company has terminated the concession agreement signed with NHAI for

Cuttack Angul. We have valued ABL on an SOTP basis to arrive at a target priceof `255, which implies an upside of 16% from the current levels. Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 1,500 1,853 1,928 2,234% chg 15.1 23.5 4.0 15.9

Adj.Net Profit 125 100 110 117% chg 23.8 (20.0) 10.4 5.8

EBITDA (%) 21.7 20.1 21.0 21.5

FDEPS (`) 22.6 16.0 18.0 22.2P/E (x) 9.7 13.7 12.2 9.9

P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

RoE (%) 12.9 9.6 10.2 10.1

RoCE (%) 6.7 2.9 2.1 2.5

EV/Sales (x) 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 10.2 9.6 9.1

OB/sales(x) 3.3 2.0 2.3 2.1

Order inflow 1,800 377 2,358 2,534

% chg (58.2) (79.1) 526.4 7.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `219

Target Price `255

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (`cr) 2,400

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 67.5

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 18.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.0

Indian Public / Others 14.1

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 1.3 21.6 16.1

ABL (3.1) 14.2 #

Note:#

listing in Oct 2010

52 Week High / Low 279/180

Infrastructure

Market Cap (`cr) 1,168

Beta 0.5

Avg. Daily Volume 6,351

Face Value (`) 10

BSE Sensex 19,722

Nifty 5,995

Reuters Code ABDL.BO

ASBL@IN

Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Ashoka BuildconPerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure

May 14, 2013


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Ashoka Buildcon| 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 14, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg(yoy) 3QFY13 % chg(qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg(yoy)Income from operations 650 468 38.8 431 50.9 1,853 1,500 23.5Total expenditure 542 374 44.7 349 55.1 1,481 1,175 26.0Operating profit 109 94 15.6 82 33.1 372 325 14.4OPM (%) 16.7 20.0 (336)bp 18.9 (223)bp 20.1 21.7 (159)bp

Interest 33 39 (15.6) 34 (2.7) 139 114 21.9

Depreciation 47 1 5049.9 27 71.7 132 85 55.8

Non operating income 5 3 84.1 3 48.7 21 26 (17.4)

Nonrecurring items/Dividend from SPV's (16) - - - - (16) - -

Profit Before tax 18 56 (68.9) 23 (25.0) 106 152 (30.2)Tax 27 15 16 68 45 51.8

PAT (9) 41 (122.9) 7 (231.2) 37 107 (65.0)Share of Profits/ (Losses) of Asso. (2) 4 - (1) - 8 9 -

Share of Profits/ (Losses) of MI (18) (1) - (7) - (39) (9) -

PAT after MI and Share of Assoc. 6 47 (86.2) 13 (49.1) 84 125 (32.5)PAT (%) 1.0 10.0 (898)bp 2.9 (194)bp 4.5 8.3 (377)bp

FDEPS (`) 1.2 8.9 (86.2) 2.4 (49.1) 16.0 23.7 (32.5)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:Segmental break-up

Particulars 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg 3QFY13 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chgConstruction segment 585 401 46.1 364 61.0 1,585 1,256 26.2

BOT segment 69 74 (6.3) 70 (1.2) 289 269 7.5

Total Income 655 475 37.9 434 50.9 1,874 1,525 22.9Construction segment 74 56 32.8 44 67.8 204 165 23.2

BOT segment 38 45 (15.6) 52 (28.0) 200 185 8.4

EBITDA 112 100 11.4 97 16.0 404 350 15.4Construction segment (%) 13 14 (127) bp 12 51bp 13 13 (31)bp

BOT segment (%) 54 60 (596) bp 74 (2013) bp 69 69 55bp

EBITDAM (%) 17 21 (407)bp 22 (514)bp 22 23 (140)bpConstruction segment 8 15 (42.4) 9 (5.4) 35 40 (11.9)

BOT segment 25 25 0.2 25 (1.8) 104 75 39.6

Financial expenses 33 39 (15.7) 34 (2.7) 139 115 21.6Construction segment 8 7 8.5 7 10.0 29 28 3.4

BOT segment 39 (6) (708.1) 20 94.0 103 57 81.8

Depreciation & Amortisation 47 1 5,063.7 27 71.8 132 85 55.8Construction segment 36 21 65.7 4 763.6 75 65 16.6

BOT segment (29) 25 - 9 (442.3) 9 51 (82.5)

PAT (after MI) 6 47 (86.2) 13 (49.2) 84 115 (27.1)Source: Company, Angel Research


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Exhibit 3:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

Parameter (` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Revenue 546 650 19.0

EBITDA 126 109 (13.6)Interest 47 33 (30.5)

PAT 45 6 (85.8)


Strong execution performance

On the top-line front, the company reported a robust growth of 38.8% yoy to

`650cr in 4QFY2013 and was higher than our estimate by 19.0%. This was mainly

on account of pick up in execution pace in under construction BOT projects.

During the quarter, the E&C segment reported revenue of `586cr (including other

income) registering strong growth of 46% yoy and was higher than our estimate of`462cr. The BOT segment revenues decline by 6% yoy to `70cr (including other

income) in 4QFY2013. This was mainly due to (a) low traffic growth in some BOT

toll projects and (b) termination of toll collection rights in Nagar Karmala BOT

projects.

Going forward, the management expects its under-construction projects (a)

Sambalpur-Baragarh, (b) Belgaum-Dharwad and (c) Dhankuni-Kharagpur to drive

the companys E&C revenue growth. On the back of healthy order book and

strong execution pipeline we estimate ABL to report a revenue CAGR of 9.8% over

FY2013-15 respectively.

Exhibit 4:Strong top-line performance


287

353

468

466

305

431

650

56.8

49.3

(22.4)

20.1

6.5

22.1

38.8

(30.0)

(20.0)(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13Net Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)


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May 14, 2013 4

BOT toll revenue

On the toll collection front, ABL witnessed a growth of 45.8% yoy/1.1% qoq in

4QFY2013. This growth was on the back of commencement of toll collection on

Durg, Dhankuni Kharagpur and Jaora Nayagaon (third section in 4QFY2012)

projects.

Toll collections: ABL started partial toll collection on October 2, 2013 for

Pimpalgaon-Nashik-Gonde project and has reported toll collection of `10cr and

`19cr for 4QFY2013 and FY2013 respectively. The company expects to complete

the project by 1QFY2014 and expects a toll collection of `0.35cr/day from the

project post completion. During the quarter, company had completed the critical

bridge over Roopnarayan River for Dhankuni- Kharagpur which has resulted in

increase in toll rate by 30% w.e.f 1st April 2013.

Exhibit 5:Road BOT project-wise toll revenue growth (`cr)Project Name 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg 3QFY13 % chg(qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg(yoy)Indore -Edalabad 18 16 11.8 17 8.2 68 65 5.4

Ahmednagar-Aurangabad 4 4 1.5 4 (3.2) 16 16 (2.4)

WaingangaBridge 6 6 - 6 5.7 22 21 4.7

DewasBypass 6 5 19.3 6 0.3 23 19 17.5

KatniBypass 5 5 (0.2) 5 0.2 18 19 (2.2)

Pune-Shirur$ 5 5 (5.7) 5 (4.3) 21 21 2.8

Nagar -Karmala^ - 6 (100.0) 3 (100.0) 15 25 (39.9)

Jaora -Nayagaon** 27 22 20.6 28 (3.3) 109 65 68.3

Bhandara 12 12 0.4 12 3.0 46 45 3.5Belgaum Dharwad # 14 14 4.4 15 (1.8) 58 48 20.6

Durg 15 8 100.3 14 4.8 58 - -

Dhankuni- Kharagpur@ 40 - - 38 4.7 155 - -

Pimpalgaon-Nashik-Gonde 10 - - 9 - 19 - -

Others * 5 12 (59.5) 5 (0.6) 23 47 (50.4)

Total 167 115 45.8 166 1.1 652 391 67.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: $ Toll collection disturbed in 3QFY2011 and 4QFY2011, Toll on one toll plaza discontinued, # Toll collectionadjusted in Capital WIP, Toll collection started from May 2011, *Others include Anawali Kasegaon, Dhule Bye pass, Nashirabad & Sherinala, ** Toll on the

second section started in May 2011 and that on the third section started on February 15, 2012

Under-construction projects

Dhankuni Kharagpur: The Company has completed critical bridge overRoopnarayan River during the quarter which is 18 months ahead of schedule. As

on 4QFY2013, it has completed ~30% of EPC work and is expected to get

commission by 2QFY2015.Belgaum Dharwad: The company has completed 71% of EPC work of the totalproject. The project is expected to get commissioned by 3QFY2014.

Sambalpur Baragarh project: The construction work has commenced fromNovember 2011 and has completed 49% of construction work.


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Lower EBITDAM, one-off exceptional items leads to lower-than

expected earnings

On the EBITDAM front, ABLs margin came in at 16.7%, a dip of 336bp on a yoy

basis and was below our estimate of 23.0%. For 4QFY2013, E&C segment

EBITDAM came in at 12.7% (14%) while BOT segment reported EBITDAM of

54.1%. EBITDA margins were lower was mainly due to lower margins in the BOT

segment and increase in operating expense (a jump of 44% yoy).

On the bottom line, ABL reported a PAT of `6cr (our estimate was `45cr) in

4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 86.2% yoy. This was mainly on back of (a)

lower-than-expected operating performance, (b) higher depreciation expense

owing to change in traffic/toll estimates and commencement of Durg BOT project,

(c) an exceptional expense of `15.7cr and (d) a high tax rate. Adjusting to this,

ABLs PAT came in`37cr in 4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 21.2%yoy.

Exhibit 6:EBITDAM trend


Exhibit 7:Lower operating performance dent PATM


Key highlights of the concall

67

69

94

102

79

82

109

23.3

19.6

20.0 22.0

26.0

18.9

16.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

EBITDA (` cr) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

17

20

47

41

24

13

6

5.9 5.5

10.0

8.87.9

2.9

1.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)

During the quarter, ABLs subsidiaryAshoka Concessions Ltd (ACL) has

received its first tranche of investment of `240cr from its private equity

investor SBI Macquarie.

The company has an order book of `3,568cr as of 4QFY2013. The

transportation segment constitutes 93% and power T&D segment constitutes7% of the total order book.

The toll collection of Nagar Karmala project has been stopped from

November 14, 2012 owing to premature termination of toll collection rights

by PWD Maharashtra. Owing to this, the company has impaired 50% of

the written down value of the project and has recorded `15.7cr as an

exceptional expense during the quarter.

On back of delay in start of construction activity owing to various issues

(MOEF clearances, land acquisition) the company has terminated the

concession agreement signed with NHAI for Cuttack Angul.

During the quarter, the company has declared a final dividend of`2/share.

It has also declared bonus shares in the ratio of 1:2 and has recommended

stock spilt to Face Value of`5/share from`10/share subject to approvals.


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May 14, 2013 6

Outlook and valuation

ABL has a robust order book of`3.568cr (2.3x trailing E&C revenues), which lends

revenue visibility. Although a slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector

has been witnessed in FY2013, ABL expects ordering activity to improve going

ahead. ABLs subsidiary Ashoka Concessions Ltd has received its first tranche of

`240cr from SBI-Macquarie in 4QFY2013. On back of delay in start of

construction activity owing to various issues (such as MOEF clearances, land

acquisition) the company has terminated the concession agreement signed with

NHAI for Cuttack Angul.We have valued ABL on a SOTP basis by assigning 5x P/E to its standalone

business and valued its BOT projects on NPV basis (it be noted that we have been

conservative than the companys Management on revenue estimates [toll receipts]

for under-construction projects, keeping an eye on revenue yield given the current

competitive environment) to arrive at a target price of `255. We have not

included the Cuttack-Angul BOT project in our SOTP valuation. We maintain ourBuy rating on the stock.

Exhibit 8:SOTP valuation break-up

Particulars Segment Driver Multiple ABL's value(` cr) ABL's value(`/ hare) Proportionate stake(%) BasisAshoka's construction business Construction 91 5 453 87 33.9

P/E of 5x one yearrolling forward earnings

Total 453 87 33.9Ashoka Concession Road BOT projectsPune Shirur Toll 11 100 11 2 0.8 NPV at CoE of 14%

Nagar Aurangabad Toll 5 100 5 1 0.4 NPV at CoE of 14%

Nagar Karmala Toll 67 100 67 13 5.0 NPV at CoE of 14%

Wainganga Toll 77 50 39 7 2.9 NPV at CoE of 14%

Sherinala Toll 11 100 11 2 0.8 NPV at CoE of 14%

Indore Edalabad Toll 166 100 166 32 12.4 NPV at CoE of 14%

Dewas Bye Pass Toll 47 100 47 9 3.5 NPV at CoE of 14%

Katni Bye Pass Toll 42 100 42 8 3.2 NPV at CoE of 14%

Total 387 74 29.0ACL Road BOT ProjectsBhandara Toll 50 51 25 5 1.9 NPV at CoE of 14%

Belgaum Dharwad Toll 112 100 112 21 8.4 NPV at CoE of 14%

Pimpalgaon-Nasik-Gonde Toll 305 26 79 15 6.0 NPV at CoE of 14%

Sambalpur Baragarh Toll 116 100 116 22 8.7 NPV at CoE of 14%

Durg Toll 83 51 42 8 3.2 NPV at CoE of 14%

Jaora-Nayagaon Toll 375 37.7 142 27 10.6 NPV at CoE of 14%

Dhankuni-Kharagpur Toll 180 100 180 34 13.5 NPV at CoE of 14%

Total 697 133 52.3

Net debt (204) (39) (15.3) Standalone net debt

Grand Total 946 255 100.0Source: Company, Angel Research


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Exhibit 9:ABL BOT projects details/assumptions

(` cr)Project Client Lane Kms ABL's Stake TPC SPV Equity Debt Grant/(Prem.) Con. sign Int. Rate Toll Inc Traffic IncOperational Projects (%) (%) (%) (%)Indore -Edalabad MPRDC 407 87 165.0 64.7 55.6 45.0 22-Sep-01 11.9 7.0 5.0

Ahmednagar-Aurangabad PWD 168 100 103.0 36.0 67.0 - 18-Dec-06 10.0 15.0* 5.0

Wainganga Bridge MORTH 26 50 41.0 14.5 26.5 - 16-Nov-98 9.5 6.0 5.0

Dewas Bypass PWD 40 100 61.0 25.0 36.0 - 31-Aug-01 13.8 25.0* 5.0

Katni Bypass PWD 35 100 71.0 28.0 43.0 - 19-Aug-02 14.0 5.0 5.0

PuneShirur PWD 216 100 161.0 55.0 106.0 - 7-May-03 11.0 18.0* 5.0

Nagar -Karmala PWD 160 100 50.0 31.5 18.5 - 19-Feb-99 11.3 18.0* 5.0

Bhandara NHAI 377 51 535.0 150.0 375.0 10.0 18-Sep-07 11.0 6.0 5.0

Dhule Bypass PWD 12 100 6.0 0.6 5.4 - 28-Aug-97 No debt - 5.0

Nashirabad MORTH 8 100 15.0 14.5 0.5 - 16-Nov-98 No debt 21.0# 5.0

Sherinala PWD 7 100 14.0 7.0 7.1 - 23-Mar-99 No debt 16.0 5.0

Anawali Kasegaon PWD 22 5 7.4 3.3 4.1 - 1-Mar-04 No debt n.a. 5.0

Under cons./develop.JaoraNayagaon MPRDC 340 15 835 273.0 562.0 (15.3)^ 20-Aug-07 11.0 5.0 5.0

Durg NHAI 368 51 587 201.0 386.0 (1.0) 23-Jan-08 13.3 5.0 5.0

PNG NHAI 452 26 1,691 339.0 1,352.0 6.2%@ 8-Jul-09 10.3 5.0 5.0

Belgaum Dharwad NHAI 454 100 694 215.0 479.0 (31.0)^ 29-Jun-10 12.3 5.0 5.0

Sambalpur-Baragarh NHAI 408 100 1,142 332.0 810.0 (1.3)^ 29-Jun-10 11.8 5.0 5.0

DhankuniKharagpur NHAI 840 100 2,200 450.0 1,750.0 (126.1)^ 21-Jun-11 11.0 5.0 5.0

Total 3,611 8,378 2,240 6,084Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:* Every three years, # Every five years, ^ 5% increment per annum, @ 6.19% of revenue payable as premium and

increment of 1% per annum

Exhibit 10:Angel EPS forecast vs consensus

Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 18.0 27.4 (34.4)

FY2015E 22.2 30.4 (27.1)



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May 14, 2013 8

Investment arguments

Integrated business model:ABL is able to undertake all activities related to a BOTroad projects in-house from tendering for the project to collection of tolls. ABLs

integrated structure enables it to bid for a BOT project with confidence, given itsability to complete and operate projects on a profitable basis. It also allows

capturing the entire value in the BOT development business, including EPC

margins, developer returns and operation and maintenance margins.

Road sector; opportunities galore: NHAI plans to award 5,000kms of road projectsin FY2014 despite having awarded only ~1,200kms in FY2013. Of these, it is

targeting to award ~3,000kms on an EPC basis and the rest on BOT basis. Going

ahead, we believe there is fair amount of awarding remaining from NHAIs end

(~21,000km), state projects, expressways and mega highways which would

provide humungous opportunities for road-focused players such as ABL.

Concerns

Interest rate risks: The inherent nature of BOT projects requires high leverage.Going by the thumb rule, most road BOT projects have a debt-equity blend of

70:30. Hence, the companys business model is vulnerable to interest rate

fluctuations, and any hike in interest rates could increase its interest costs.

Traffic growth risks:Revenue from BOT toll-based projects is directly affected bytraffic growth. Companies bid for projects assuming long-term traffic growth

patterns, which may be higher/aggressive than actual traffic growth. This

aberration in estimates could result in lower returns for companies. Moreover, anyeconomic slowdown could impact our estimates. The thumb rule for traffic growth

is a factor of 0.8-0.9x of real GDP growth. Therefore, we have conservatively

factored in 5% traffic growth in ABLs BOT projects.

Commodity risks:Prices of commodities like cement, steel and bitumen play animportant role in shaping EBITDAM. We have factored in a flat EBITDAM for ABL

for the C&EPC and BOT segments owing to inclusion of escalation clause while

estimating costs and due to the integrated business model of ABL. However, if the

movement in the prices of these commodities is higher than estimates, it would

have a negative impact on the companys EBITDAM.


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May 14, 2013 9

Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E OB/FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales(x)

ABL 219 255 Buy 1,853 1,928 2,234 9.8 16.0 18.0 22.2 17.7 13.7 12.2 9.9 2.3CCCL 12 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.5) 16.9 5.7 2.2

IRB Infra 117 167 Buy 3,843 4,152 4,624 9.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 1.2 6.9 6.9 6.8 2.8

ITNL 176 230 Buy 6,645 7,444 8,041 10.0 26.8 29.8 32.1 9.4 6.6 5.9 5.5 2.2

IVRCL 19 35 Buy 3,773 6,287 6,836 34.6 (3.9) 2.3 3.0 - - 8.2 6.3 4.9

JP Assoc. 73 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 33.2 28.9 25.6 -

L&T 1,522 1,795 Buy 60,837 69,586 79,247 14.1 63.4 75.1 84.8 15.7 24.0 20.3 17.9 2.7

NCC 34 45 Buy 5,863 6,576 7,264 11.3 3.1 4.1 4.8 24.6 11.1 8.3 7.1 3.3

Punj Lloyd 56 - Neutral 11,717 12,954 14,740 12.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.9 - - 109.8 59.8 1.9

Sadbhav 115 153 Buy 1,565 2,511 2,736 32.2 1.5 7.3 7.8 131.3 78.9 15.8 14.8 3.3

Simplex In. 111 164 Buy 6,026 6,824 7,563 12.0 14.1 18.0 23.4 28.8 7.9 6.2 4.7 2.5

Unity Infra 30 45 Buy 2,180 2,455 2,734 12.0 12.7 14.6 14.9 8.0 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0


Exhibit 12:SOTP break-up for coverage universe

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 87 34 - - 168 66 - - - - 255CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 54 32 - - 113 68 - - - - 167

ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 15 43 - - - - 20 57 - - 35

JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90

L&T 1,358 76 - - - - 437 24 - - 1,795

NCC 25 57 - - 7 16 - - 12 27 44

Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64

Sadbhav 54 35 - - 99 65 - - - - 153

Simplex In. 164 100 - - - - - - - - 164

Unity Infra 45 100 - - - - - - - - 45



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May 14, 2013 10

Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 796 1,303 1,500 1,853 1,928 2,234Other operating income - - - - - -Total operating income 796 1,303 1,500 1,853 1,928 2,234% chg 53.5 63.8 15.1 23.5 4.0 15.9

Total Expenditure 581 1,052 1,175 1,481 1,523 1,754R.M. consumed 358 396 401 558 559 637

Construction expenses 184 593 700 824 858 994

Employee expenses 21 33 43 50 56 65

SG&A 18 29 31 48 50 58

EBITDA 214 251 325 372 405 480% chg 30.6 17.0 29.7 14.4 8.9 18.6

(% of Net Sales) 26.9 19.2 21.7 20.1 21.0 21.5

Depreciation & Amortisation 66 69 85 132 156 176

EBIT 148 182 240 240 249 304% chg 48.8 22.6 32.2 (0.2) 3.9 22.2

(% of Net Sales) 18.6 13.9 16.0 12.9 12.9 13.6

Interest & other Charges 49 69 114 139 145 168

Other Income 19 25 26 21 33 38

(% of PBT) 15.8 17.9 17.1 17.7 23.9 21.8

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 118 137 152 122 137 174% chg 135.9 16.6 10.5 (19.9) 12.7 27.1

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - 107.2 - (15.7) (15.7) -

PBT (reported) 118 244 152 106 121 174Tax 32 42 45 68 47 59

(% of PBT) 27.1 17.4 29.8 64.7 38.4 34.0

PAT (reported) 86 202 107 37 75 115Add: Share of earnings of asso. - 8 9 8 (5) (15)

Less: Minority interest (MI) 6 2 (9) (39) (25) (17)

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 80 208 125 84 95 117ADJ. PAT 80 101 125 100 110 117% chg 130.8 25.4 23.8 (20.0) 10.4 5.8(% of Net Sales) 10.1 7.7 8.3 5.4 5.7 5.2

Basic EPS (`) 13.8 37.7 22.6 16.0 18.0 22.2Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 13.8 37.7 22.6 16.0 18.0 22.2% chg 133.2 172.4 (40.0) (29.2) 12.4 23.4

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


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May 14, 2013 11

Balance sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 58 63 55 53 53 53

Share App Money - 0.3 14.9 14.9 - -

Reserves & Surplus 404 830 964 983 1,053 1,145

Shareholders Funds 462 893 1,034 1,051 1,106 1,198Preference Capital - - - - - -

Minority Interest 81 111 63 279 254 237Total Loans 1,122 1,283 1,707 2,628 2,728 3,228

Deferred Tax Liability 3 2 1 (1) (1) (1)

Other Current liability - - 2,045 7,734 7,886 7,720

Total Liabilities 1,669 2,289 4,850 11,691 11,974 12,382APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 791 1,389 2,076 3,019 3,319 4,701

Less: Acc. Depreciation 330 368 450 583 739 915

Net Block 461 1,020 1,626 2,437 2,581 3,786Capital Work-in-Progress 814 673 2,682 8,667 8,509 7,692

Bal of unutilised IPO money - 10.9 - - - -

Goodwill - - - 6.1 6.1 6.1

Investments 149 139 205 284 284 284Current Assets 638 815 861 1,044 1,300 1,435Inventory 196 241 277 540 592 649

Debtors 182 285 275 188 238 275

Cash 85 60 50 52 63 77

Loans & Advances 175 229 259 264 407 433

Current liabilities 393 371 524 747 706 821

Net Current Assets 245 445 337 297 594 614Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 1,669 2,289 4,850 11,691 11,974 12,382Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with



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May 14, 2013 12

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 118 30 152 137 153 174

Depreciation 71 38 82 132 156 176Change in Working Capital (89) (224) 98 42 (286) (6)

Less: Other income (19) (25) (26) (21) (33) (38)

Direct taxes paid (32) (42) (45) (68) (47) (59)

Cash Flow from Operations 50 (223) 260 221 (57) 248(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (483) (457) (2,696) (6,929) (141) (565)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (58) 9 (66) (79) - -

Other income 19 25 26 21 33 38

Cash Flow from Investing (522) (423) (2,736) (6,986) (109) (527)Issue of Equity (1) 5 (8) (3) - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 399 161 424 921 100 500

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - - - (25) (25) (25)

Others 89 456 2,049 5,872 101 (182)

Cash Flow from Financing 487 622 2,465 6,766 177 294Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 15 (24) (10) 2 11 14

Opening Cash balances 69 85 60 50 52 63Closing Cash balances 85 60 50 52 63 77




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May 14, 2013 13

Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2014EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 15.8 5.8 9.7 13.7 12.2 9.9P/CEPS 13.0 8.7 4.4 5.8 5.3 4.6

P/BV 2.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

Dividend yield (%) - - - - 0.3 0.3

EV/Sales 2.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0

EV/EBITDA 10.5 9.7 8.8 10.2 9.6 9.1

EV / Total Assets 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 13.8 37.7 22.6 16.0 18.0 22.2

EPS (fully diluted) 13.8 37.7 22.6 16.0 18.0 22.2

Cash EPS 16.9 25.2 50.2 38.0 41.1 47.6

DPS - - - - 0.7 0.7

Book Value 79.5 161.7 187.3 199.6 210.0 227.5

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 18.6 13.9 16.0 12.9 12.9 13.6

Tax retention ratio 72.9 (41.0) 70.2 50.1 69.5 66.0

Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 8.3 (3.9) 4.8 1.5 1.5 1.7

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.9 (2.4) 5.4 3.2 3.8 3.7

Leverage (x) 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.5

Operating ROE 17.6 (6.7) 3.9 (2.1) (4.1) (3.5)

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 10.7 9.2 6.7 2.9 2.1 2.5

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 20.8 15.7 13.1 9.4 7.8 7.6

ROE 20.3 14.9 12.9 9.6 10.2 10.1

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6

Inventory / Sales (days) 60 61 63 80 107 101

Receivables (days) 50 65 68 46 40 42

Payables (days) 175 132 139 157 174 159

Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 181 183 191 178 211 212

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 2.2 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.6

Net debt to EBITDA 4.8 4.9 5.1 6.9 6.6 6.6

Interest Coverage 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.8




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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Ashoka Buildcon

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

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Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Documents

Ashoka Buildcon 4Q FY 2013