ASH DEC Firmenpräsentation - SSWM · ash dec umwelt ag seite 18 2006/2007 grain stocks at the lowest level in 30 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 1986/87 1990/91

Seite 1ASH DEC Umwelt AG

AGRICULTURE AND FERTILIZERS ANALYSIS, LESSONS, SOLUTIONS


1. GLOBAL TRENDS


• Global population increase >1-2% p.a.• Bio-fuel production in USA, Latin Americas and Europe • Steep income growth in some developing countries• Change of diet in Asian countries• High energy prices• Natural resources constraints (water, land)• Tight food supply • High prices for agricultural commodities

FERTILIZERS‘ DEMAND DRIVERS


2. INCOME AND NUTRITION


BETTER NUTRITION BECAUSE OF ESCAPE OF 300 M PEOPLE FROM POVERTY

The amount of people who earn less than 1 $ per day, decreased from 32% to 19% between 1990 und 2004. Economic development in Asia caused this phenomenon. About 300 M people there escaped from the extreme poverty.The most immediate effect of additional income became a nutrition improvement.

Due to UN forecast this trend will continue.

Source: UNO Millennium Development Goals Report 2007


MEAT CONSUMPTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES STILL WELL BEHIND

123,2

83,1

63,4

41,5

30,7

30,1

15,4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Northern America

Developed Countries

Latin America

World

Developing Countries

Asia

Africakg/person/yearkg/person/year

Source: FAO


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300World Population

World Meat Consumption

Billion People Billion People Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

MEAT CONSUMPTION GROWS MUCH FASTER THAN POPULATION

Source: FAO


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 2015 2030

Developed Developing

Million Tonnes

Source: FAO

GLOBAL MEAT CONSUMPTION WILL ALMOST DOUBLE BY THE YEAR 2030


PROTEIN-RICH DIET NEEDS TRIPLE PRODUCTION OF CORN AND SOYA

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1.000,0

1.200,0

1.400,0

1.600,0

1.800,0

Vegetarian Mixed Meat-based (Western type)

kg/J

ahr F

eldf

rüch

te

Source: IiASA


3. BIO- FUELS


DRIVERS FOR BIO-FUEL PRODUCTION

The global utilization of bio-fuels is subject to the following criteria:o Ecological benefitso Reduction of CO2 emissionso Economic benefits (without subsidizing)

Ecological benefits and reduction of CO2 emissions:

Results of the Brazilian program „Proalcool“ from 1975 to 2005:

• Reduction of CO2 emissions: 644 Mill. t• Saving of fossil fuels: 778 MBOE (Million

Barrels Oil Equivalents)• Saving of foreign currency: USD 72 billions

Source: JSA Ltda, Phosphates 2008 Conference


ENERGY & COST BALANCE FOR BIOFUELS

Economic results of the production of ethanol:

MJ per ton USD/Barrel• Wheat (EU) 1,3 154,0• Corn (USA) 1,5 75,0• Beetroots (EU) 1,9• Sugar Cane (Brazil) 8,0 32,0• Sugar Cane (Australia) 51,0• Sugar Cane (Thailand) 46,0• Sugar Cane (Brazil 2010) 10,0 ?

Conclusion: Production of biofuels is economically viable in many countries outside Europe, provided the crude oil price is above USD 75,-/barrel.

Source: JSA Ltda, Phosphates 2008 Conference


STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND FOR BIO-FUELS

Source: PIRA / Fondsfinans Fertilizer Investor Conference Dec. 2007

1 US Gallon = 3,785 l


NATIONAL BIOFUEL STRATEGY IN THE US

-0,2

0,2

0,6

1,0

1,4

1,8

2,2

2,6

3,0

3,4

88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07F 11/12F

18% 18%

6% 6%

% of total US % of total US corn usecorn use

Billion Bushels (1 bu = 0,0254 t)Billion Bushels (1 bu = 0,0254 t)2525--30%30%

Source: FAO, USDA

One barrel of bio-fuel from US corn costs in 2007 about $ 75,-and is competitive with oil-based fuels(1 Barrel = 158,957 l)


4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS


CHINA BECOMES A CORN IMPORTER - PRODUCTION BELOW DEMAND

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

86/8

7

88/8

9

90/9

1

92/9

3

94/9

5

96/9

7

98/9

9

00/0

1

02/0

3

04/0

5

06/0

7

ProductionExportsConsumptionStocks

Million Tonnes

Stocks Continue to Fall

Production Gap

ExportsDeclining

Favorable Production Years

Source: FAO


EVEN GOOD HARVESTS IN 2006/2007 DID NOT COVER GLOBAL DEMAND

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1982/83 1985/86 1988/89 1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07

ProductionConsumption

Billion tons

US, China and India produce over 40% of the world’s wheat and coarse grains.

Near Perfect Weather Year

Production Gap

Sources: FAO, USDA


2006/2007 GRAIN STOCKS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 1986/87 1990/91 1994/95 1998/99 2002/03 2006/0710

15

20

25

30

35

40Year-End Grain StocksStocks-to-Use Ratio

Million Tonnes Percent

Grain ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14,7% for 2006/07 are the lowest in over 30 years.

Source: FAO

Wheat & Coarse GrainsWheat & Coarse Grains


IN THE FUTURE GRAIN CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW

0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

Food Animal Feed & Other Uses

60%45%

Billion TonnesBillion Tonnes 1965 1996 2030F

Source: FAO


INCREASING CAPITAL FLOWS TO AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

A study, conducted by Barclays Capital among 240 institutional investors, has revealed that 100 billion Dollars may be currently invested in agricultural commodities. Until the end of 2008, this investment could increase to 140-175 billion Dollars.

Darin Newsom, a Senior Analyst of DTM means that the market of agricultural commodities has become a market for acknowledged investment strategies.

„The influx of investments has lead to price increases, increased volatility and eroded the cyclical nature of markets for agricultural commodities“, says Newsom.

Source: U.S. News & World Report, 24. February 2008.


HIGH GRAIN PRICES

Source: USDA, CBOT / Fondsfinans Fertilizer Investor Conference Dec. 2007


5. FERTILIZERS


URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT REDUCE ARABLE LANDS

SMALLER ARABLE AREAS REQUIRE INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE WITH HIGHER SOIL FERTILIZATION


HIGH YIELD GROWTH POTENTIAL IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Source: FAO


Source: IFA

FERTILIZER BY CROP USE


STRONG GROWTH OF FERTILIZER SALES


CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZERS IN 2006-2007

Global Fertilizer Consumption

2006 Change 2007 Change

Million tons Nutrients

N 96,9 +4,7% 100,0 +3,2%

P2O5 38,6 +4,5% 40,0 +3,8%

K2O 26,5 +2,1% 28,7 +8,1%

Total 162,0 +4,2% 168,7 +4,1%

Source: IFA


STEEP ROCK PHOSPHATE PRICE INCREASE

Source: Phosphates 2008 Conference, Paris, Feb. 19-20/2008

Rock phosphate prices, Morocco

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USD

/ t


ROCK PHOSPHATE EXPORTS CONTROLLED BY FEW COMPANIES

Source: Phosphates 2008 Conference, Paris, Feb. 19-20/2008


6. URBAN P-RESOURCES


EUROPEAN PHOSPHATE CONSUMPTION EXCEEDS PRODUCTION

With exception of ICL and YARA, all European P-fertilizer producers have to import phosphate products.


632.000

180.000313.000

2.530.000

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

t / Jahr

EU total P-recycling potential

EU mining capacity

EU ANNUAL P2O5MINING & CONSUMPTION

EU annual phosphate consumption

EU P-recycling potential from existing sludge ash

YEAR 2006: EU P2O5 CONSUMPTION= 2.530 Mio. t EU P2O5 MINING = 313.000 t


10 M t SLUDGE3 M t MBM

SNB SLUDGE INCINERATOR Moerdijk/NL

> 989.000 t P2O5 can be recycled from sludge and MBM

> 632.000 t P2O5 are lost in landfills and other forms of disposal

POTENTIAL PHOSPHATE MINING FROM „URBAN“ RESOURCES IN THE EU


NEW SLUDGE INCINERATORS IN EUROPE

OPERATOR LOCATION to DM p.a. StatusARA Tobl St. Lorenzen (IT) 4.000 OperationEEF ENSA Posieux (CH) 10.000 OperationStuttgart Mühlhausen Stuttgart (DE) 30.000 OperationGUP Vodokanal Süd St. Petersburg (RU) 50.000 OperationGUP Vodokanal Nord St. Petersburg (RU) 60.000 OperationThames Water Belfast (UK) 35.000 ConstructionUnited Utilities Shell Green (UK) 25.000 ConstructionEmter Altenstadt (DE) 25.000 OperationBiomasseverwertung Großwilfersdorf (AT) 5.000 CommissioningBazenheid Bazenheid (CH) 12.000 ConstructionERZ Zürich Zürich (CH) 33.000 ProjectInfraserv Gendorf Gendorf (DE) 4.000 OperationAWV Pinneberg Pinneberg (DE) 4.000 ProjectStadtwerke Crailsheim Crailsheim (DE) 4.000 ConstructionMosvodokanal Moskau (RU) 500.000 ProjectKievvodokanal Kiev (UA) 80.000 ProjectIstanbul WWTP Istanbul (TR) 120.000 Project


Thank You for Your Attention!

L. Hermann, ASH DEC Umwelt AG,

tel.: +43 1 734 46 40, [email protected]

Documents

ASH DEC Firmenpräsentation - SSWM · ash dec umwelt ag seite 18 2006/2007 grain stocks at the lowest level in 30 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 1986/87 1990/91