Introducing “A Scalable wAter Prognosis” (ASAP): a plug‐and‐play web platform for operational SWAT forecasts

Senior Scientist Dennis Trolle, Institute of Bioscience, Aarhus UniversityScientist Anders Nielsen, Institute of Bioscience, Aarhus University

Associated Professor Anders Lehmann, Aarhus School of Engineering, Aarhus University

SWAT conference, Vienna2019

ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis Outline

• Background – the challenges and the idea• Current status and future plans• Live demo: www.WaterWebTools.com

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis Background ‐ the challenges

Challenge 3: too little water(drought risk)

Challenge 2: too dirty water (pollution risk)

Challenge 1: too much water (flood risk)

!hydrological forecast systems are essential for supporting sustainablemanagement of naturalresources, and for mitigating the impacts of climate change and climate extremes

Water related challenges are accelerating globally

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

• The “Real‐Time CEAP” system, is a US‐based example of a web‐based tool for the entire US intended for farmers to assist them in planning for fertilizer, manure, or pesticide applications

• A large scale hydrological prognosis system, based on the “DK‐model” (fully distributed groundwater model) is also envisaged for Denmark (the “HIP” project) within the next few years

• Both of these examples are intended for large scale assessments, and are not readily scalable and therefore not readily transferred to other areas

• No scalable (and plug‐and‐play) forecast solution currently exist

There are examples of existing hydrological forecast systems, f.x. :

Background – existing solutions

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis The idea – value proposition

• Is a plug‐and‐play web‐based solution

• No need for software installation or software‐technical expertise

• Just access and log on through a webpage

• Solution is based on SWAT and globally available Big Data

• Hydrological forecasting made easy and affordable

• Unique early warning and planning system

• It is the only scalable solution available – readily adapted to any location of interest in the world

• It can integrate both new and existing watershed model applications

ASAP ‐ the solution:

ASAP ‐ the essentials:

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis The idea – initial idea presented in Brussels 2018

• What has happened since?

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis Current status – pitch to InnoExplorer panel

A highly competitive source of funding from Innovation Fund Denmark

• For the next year we can therefore further mature the prototype of the forecast system

We have just been awarded with InnoExplorer funding

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

Market analysis – present, measure and learn

What are the key needs? International field‐based product analysis, including:

• Discussions with key end‐users to identify their specific needs (Danish municipalities, AquaGlobe partners in DK, NIGLAS in China, etc.)

• Knowledge‐exchange visits to key SWAT and forecasting groups

• Presentations at key end‐user venues (e.g., World Water Week in Stockholm 2019; IWA World Water Congress & Exhibition in Copenhagen 2020; Aquatech China 2020)

Innovation Fund Denmark – InnoExplorer project elements

Operational prototype of forecast systemTechnological maturation of ASAP ‐ build

MVP

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis Potential end‐users – and gains

Intelligent farmingfertilizer scheduling and optimized irrigation

‐‐‐end‐user‐‐‐Agricultural sector

Hydrological forecast

Integrated waterressource managementOptimized allocation of 

water usage‐‐‐end‐user‐‐‐

Public & private watermanagers

R&D platformExperimental platform 

and outreach‐‐‐end‐user‐‐‐

Research institutions

Flood mitigationEarly warning of flood

events, municipal planning‐‐‐end‐user‐‐‐

Public authorities & consultants

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis Project summary and plans

Now

MVP

Status:

• Core hydrological model exist and is well tested

• Idea and plan for development of a scalable web‐based infrastructure exist 

• Some initial software building blocks for enabling forecast workflow exist

Beyond InnoExplorer, we aim to:

• Assign IPR to an SME, which will be initiated by the three members of the project team (IPR has already been allocated fully from Aarhus University to the two project team members from Bioscience)

• Conduct a scoping of potential business partnerships for market expansion

• Offer the forecast solution at an annual rate, which will depend on the scale of the forecast area

• Join the partnership of Aquaglobe – the Danish ”Silicon Valley” for water

Project phase:

• Creating prototype

• Maturing of forecast solution

• Interactions with potential end‐users

Beyond

The InnoExplorer project will enable maturation of solution and ready it for market entry

Organisation

InnoExplorer

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

Scan SWAT m

odel files

Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4….….….

The core of the forecast system: a 16 days forecast‐loop (back‐end)

Web front‐end

Presentation of forecastsand user‐interactions

2. Format weather 

forecast (and biascorrection)

3. Append forecast data on weather input files

4. Run SWAT forecast

5. Process output

6. Send output to web front‐end for user‐interaction

1. Download local weather 

forecast

The workflow details:• Read any SWAT application and its weather station information.• Download and format (open access, global) forecast data (GFS

for short‐term forecasts).• Incorporate forecast data into SWAT weather inputs.• Execute forecast run and send key results to web front‐end.• Allow user‐interactions through web front‐end (e.g. custom

warning levels for stream discharge, soil water content etc.).• More info on:www.WaterWebTools.com

Forecast system – the core

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

Why use GFS weather forecasts as a basis?

The GFS details:• GFS, together with ECMWF, are the most significant global weather

forecasting providers• GFS provide weather forecast data for free• GFS has just been through a major upgrade, which should improve

forecasting of extremes and precipitation• GFS internal calculations are based on a global 13 km grid (soon 9

km), and data is distributed on 28 km global grid (0.25 degrees).• GFS produce 16 days forecasts (the model is run in two parts: the

first part has a higher resolution and goes out to 180 hours in thefuture (7 days), the second part runs from 180 to 384 hours (16days) at a lower resolution).

• We can also implement other weather forecasting products ifrequested by users (e.g. Yr by the Norwegian MeteorologicalInstitute)

Forecast system – the core

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

www.WaterWebTools.com

Live demo…

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ASAPAScalable wAter Prognosis

www.WaterWebTools.comWe welcome any feedback and suggestions. Thank you.

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