article Bouwman Van der Duin Technology forecasting and scenarios matter

8/14/2019 article Bouwman Van der Duin Technology forecasting and scenarios matter

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Technological forecasting

and scenarios matterResearch into the use of information andcommunication technology in the homeenvironment in 2010

H. Bouwman and P. van der Duin

H. Bouwman ([email protected]) is Assistant Professor in the Information and Communication Technology Department

and P. van der Duin ([email protected]) is a Research Fellow in the Technology, Strategy and Entrepreneurship

Department, both at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.

Keywords Forecasting, Technology led strategy, Information,

Communication, Development

Abstract Information and communication technology (ICT) is

increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a

very important and interesting research topic for communication

scientists. Future developments will influence the way and the

extent to which ICT will be used in the home environment andtherefore the way people look for information, communicate,

make use of entertainment services and carry out transactions.

However, it is still very difficult to make meaningful and accurate

forecasts with regard to the possible future use and acceptance

of ICT in peoples homes. Important reasons are, for example,

that more and more market parties are involved in the

development of innovative ICT products and services. This

makes developments more complex and the outcomes more

uncertain. Furthermore, consumers play an important role in the

development of new ICT-based information, communication,

transaction and entertainment services. Since a precise

prediction of the possible use of ICT in domestic environments

in 2010 is hard to make, other methods of futures research must

be used. Combining technological forecasting with scenario

thinking is such a research method, whereon, technological

forecasting shows the major trends in the specific technology

domain, while scenarios cover the possible future worlds. By

giving end-users a central place in these scenarios, the diversity

of the use and acceptance of innovative products and services

is captured. Thus, the addition of scenarios to the technology

trends gives insight into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of

new ICT-technologies and the way they may be used in the

home environment.

1. Introduction

Information and communication technology (ICT) plays an

important role in our society. Technologies are

developing at a fast pace and will increasingly influence

our lives in the near future. No company, entrepreneur,

media company, school or hospital can do without

computers. These computers are more and more linked byprivate or public networks. In households in particular, ICT,

such as new multimedia-enabled mobile phones, digital

televisions and PCs are being used with comparatively little

knowledge on the part of the scientific community as to how

they are being used, who has access to them and what the

effects and consequences are with regard to social and

media behaviour. The PC and its portable variety the laptop

computer occupy an important place in everyday life, not

only as far as the working environment is concerned, but also

with regard to leisure, i.e. computer games, access to

archives of television programmes, downloading mp3 and

dvd files. Viewers can use an intelligent box (the set-topbox) to access interactive digital information using their

television sets. The telephone has evolved from a simple

apparatus in the hall into something that is apparently so

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precious to a great number of people that they cannot

relinquish it for even a second and it is used to transmit, for

instance, digital photos, ringtones and multimedia

messages. ICTs are not only visibly present in our houses,

more often than not they are invisible. Washing machines,

ironing and sewing machines are becoming ever more

intelligent and dependent on their software. In the future,microwave ovens and refrigerators might have a display that

enables people to access relevant information from the

Internet, for instance about traffic jams, before they leave the

house.

Research into these new technologies and the way they

might be accepted and used in the future is significant to

industry (telecom operators, service and both commercial

content providers and providers of content as part of an

e-commerce trajectory), for policy makers (both within

governments and companies) and end-users, i.e. consumers.

In order for the research to be actually used by these actors,

an analysis of potential technological developments in

combination with knowledge with regard to the possible

acceptance and usage is required. Communication scientists,

more than product and business developers, can play an

important role because they are in a position to translate

lessons regarding the use and adoption of media into

opportunities for new emerging technologies (Flichy, 1995).

The objective of this paper is to illustrate how certain

futures research methods, in this case technological

forecasting in combination with scenario analysis, can be

used to develop insight into the acceptance and use of ICT in

the domestic environment in the year 2010.

First, we will pay closer attention to the various methods

of futures research. Second, we will discuss two methods,

technological forecasting and scenarios, in more detail, and

show how these two methods can be combined to make

relevant and significant claims. Third, we present the results

of a technology-forecast analysis aimed at the adoption and

use of ICT in the home environment in the year 2010. We will

present research conducted among e xperts which will serve

as a validation of relevant trends. We will then describe four

possible scenarios for the year 2010 and show in what way

the results of technological forecasting can be used in

scenarios to provide insight into what the adoption and use

of relevant technologies and services might be.

2. Methods of futures research

Futures research (e.g. scenario analysis, judgmental

forecasting, technological forecasting) can be defined as the

complete range of methods that can be used to look at the

future[1]. These methods can be categorized according to

their function (May, 1996), whether they are predictive,

non-predictive or a combination of both (Fowles, 1978) or

whether they can be used for operational, tactical or strategic

goals (Van der Duin et al., 2001). Different methods are

increasingly being combined (Masini, 2002). Building

scenarios usually starts with carrying out a technology, social

and economic trend analysis. Quantitative and judgmental

forecasting are often used to complement each other

(Masini, 2002).

Choosing the right method is very important for the

practical and future use of the results of these kinds of study

(Galtung, 2003). Factors that might influence the choice of aspecific method are: the level of uncertainty, the time horizon,

the type of variables under analysis (Van der Duin et al.,

2001), participation, duration and costs (Miles et al., 2002),

and phase of innovation (Twiss, 1992). There is a certain

relationship between these various factors. For instance, a

certain correlation between the uncertainty with regard to

technological developments and the accuracy of results

based on the use of specific prediction methods can be

observed (Ascher, 1978) (see Figure 1).

If technologies are merely discussed in scientific panels,

R&D environment and initial stages of the innovation

process, any prediction regarding their future adoption and

use is rather problematic. Once a product or service is

introduced on the market, it is easier to gain a better insight

in its potential by analysing the results of market surveys.

Quantitative, econometric predictions can be drafted on the

basis of data concerning the initial adoption and use. The

uncertainty, with regard to the product or service, is reduced

considerably, but it is as yet unclear whether a product will

be warmly received by consumers and whether initial

adoption trends among innovators will persist. The ``right

prediction horizon varies depending on the industry under

investigation (Van Doorn and Van Vught, 1978; Albright,

2002). Media industry has a comparatively short prediction

horizon, while the oil industry uses a prediction horizon

exceeding 20 years.

2.1 Technological forecasting

Technological forecasting is an exploration of developments

in the technology domain in which the possible applicability

Figure 1 Relationship between the level of

uncertainty regarding technologies and the

accuracy of predictions

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is assessed over a longer term (Coates et al., 2001). In other

words, technological forecasting can be used at the initial

stage of the innovation process, when decision makers and

other people involved want to know what the important

trends might be in the years to come. Technological

forecasting is used in many cases, ranging from vision

development on the future to investment decisions with

regard to emerging technologies. Technological forecasting

offers a comprehensive view of the technologies already

available, of emerging technologies and of the way these

technologies influence or substitute e ach other (Porter et al.,

1991). A disadvantage of technology explorations has to do

with the fact that they often use long-term time horizons,

resulting in an increased level of uncertainty and a

corresponding low level of accuracy when it comes to the

predictions being made. Scenarios are generally considered

good alternatives to technological forecasting.

2.2 Scenarios

People who use scenarios assume that it is impossible tomake straightforward predictions and that it is wise to picture

various alternative futures. Scenarios are expectations

regarding possible futures that provide insight into the way

the future may develop based on clearly defined

assumptions concerning the relationship between relevant

developments. Usually, these relevant developments are

based on input from other methods of futures research, such

as, for instance, trend analysis. R elevant trends serve as the

primary axes along which the alternative scenarios are

constructed. A well-carried-out scenario study addresses

criteria such as plausibility (scenarios are not science fiction),

consistency (prevent combining mutually incompatible

trends), completeness (scenarios are more than a variation

on a single theme) and the validity of the underlying

assumptions (Van der Heijden, 1996). Scenario thinking

broadens peoples horizon by showing them alternatives and

allowing them to rehearse and learn from the future

(Schwartz, 1991; Godet, 2000; Masini and Vasquez, 2000).

Scenarios can best be used in situations with high

uncertainty when managers or decision makers feel that the

world is changing but are not sure in which direction.

Scenarios enhance their ability to anticipate possible future

developments that might affect their business. Scenarios

allow for multiple views regarding possible future

developments (Godet, 2000; Wilson, 2000).The scenario method is regarded as an instrument that

can assist decision makers very well in their decision-making

process. Famous is the example of oil company Shell who

were able to anticipate in the oil crisis of 1973 by also

including in their set of scenarios the possibility of a shortage

of the supply of oil because of political tensions in the Middle

East and the subsequent rise of the oil prices (Schwartz,

1991; Kleiner, 1996). Ringland (1998) also gives a list of

international companies who have benefited from using

scenarios in developing plans for the future. Although private

companies often address societal, cultural and political

aspects of the future (and their impact on business) in their

scenarios governments and other non-profit organisations

are also active in developing scenarios for developing policy

(see, for instance, Eames et al., 2000).

2.3 Combining the two methods

Technological forecasting provides valuable input forscenarios, as it is important to be aware of all the technical

possibilities when constructing scenarios (Coates et al.,

2001). The ``completeness criterion has the advantage that

on the one hand scenarios present accurate pictures of the

technical possibilities, while on the other hand making it clear

why it is that certain technologies have a greater chance of

becoming successful than others. By giving the human

factor a prominent place in the scenarios, technology is

given a ``face, which allows us to make it clear what services

will be used in the future. In our vision, technology is nothing

more than an ``enabler and it is only when technologies fit

the needs and attitudes of consumers that they can beincorporated into a clear picture of the future.

The choice in favour of a particular method to formulate

predictions regarding the adoption and use of ICT is

determined by the development stage of a given technology.

When looking at the year 2010, the only thing we can say for

sure is that the products and services that will be used in

households by that time are now either in their start-up phase

or even in the embryonic stage of their development.

Between a technology, i.e. the ``bare knowledge that it is

available in a conceptual or experimental format in

universities or R&D laboratories, and a service that a large

number of people will utilize on a daily basis, is a world of

difference and an ocean of time. Technology explorations

show us how the technology as such is developing, but it

offers much less information regarding its possible

applications. An example is UMTS, the third generation (3G)

mobile communication. At the moment we can make

reasonably accurate predictions as to in which period this

much-discussed technology will become available. It is less

clear, however, what the explicit services are that will be

marketed on the basis of this technology (location-based or

multimedia services), let alone how consumers will respond

to and adopt these services.

To combine the two methods discussed above (at least)

two conditions need to be fulfilled (Van der Duin et al., 2000):(1) Technological forecasting and scenarios must have the

same level of abstraction. When technological

forecasting focuses on the adoption and use of personal

digital assistants (PDAs) it makes little sense to combine

it with the trend of globalisation because the two

phenomena have little in common. When we combine

PDAs with the need of consumers to be able to access

information ``anywhere, anyplace we can develop an

idea as to how this trend might affect the use and shape

of PDAs.

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(2) Technological forecasting and scenarios must have the

same unit of analysis. When scenarios address the

possible political future of a country and when they are

based on scenario axes ``more vs less freedom and

``centralisation vs decentralisation of political power it

will not be possible to apply them to the use of new

mobile devices.If both conditions are met, the relationship between

technological forecasting and scenarios can be interpreted

as follows. Scenario development starts where technological

forecasting ends. Technological forecasting is an

extrapolation of developments that begin at some point in

the past (the line running diagonally from ``2000). We

assume that these developments will continue for some time

into the future (the dotted line). However, after a certain

length of time it becomes impossible to extend the line (or

development) because there is too much uncertainty (see

also Porter et al., 1996, p. 50). From this point onwards,

scenarios (the four diverging lines) can be used to explorethe future. The horizontal line shows that for different

variables the moment at which there is too much uncertainty

to extrapolate may vary. For example, forecasts concerning

the birth rate are usually relatively accurate for a time horizon

of 15 years, whereas it becomes increasingly difficult to

make accurate predictions concerning the number of mobile

telephones beyond a two-year time frame (Figure 2).

Thus far we have described how we deal with

technological forecasting and scenarios. In the next section

we will illustrate how we collected the data we used to

develop technology forecasts and discuss the main results.

3. Technological forecasting for 2010

We collected data for technological forecasting with regard

to ICT in households through: desk research on

developments in technological domain; and brainstorm

sessions with selected experts in the fields of technology and

communication, with an emphasis on expertise regarding

adoption and use behaviour, organised to validate the major

trends.

3.1 Desk research

Fundamental technological developments, often in the field

of physics, electronics and microelectronics, facilitate

products and services that can be accessed and used by

everyone, independent of carrier, location and time. At thehardware level key developments are digitisation, increased

processing power, microelectronics, reduced use of energy,

miniaturisation, technical integration and the use of sensors.

At the software level the focus is on compression techniques,

increased intelligence, agent technology, security and an

improved interface between man and machine (Bouwman et

al., 2000).

Hardware and peripheral equipment will become

increasingly interchangeable. TV, PC and telephone will follow

their own specific paths towards a multimedia and even VR-

station (Biocca and Levy, 1995). Eventually the equipment will

be characterised especially by its portability and thepossibility to access both speech and moving images.

Dependence on broadband (mobile) data communication

networks will increase (Anderson et al., 2002).

As far as networks are concerned, we s ee a development

towards ever-increasing capacity within the transportation

network. The consumer is more interested in the access

network. There, we find a continuing increase in choice and

flexibility. Consumers wanting direct access to the

telecommunication infrastructure have at their disposal a

variety of equipment that is linked to a specific network, be it

the telephone network, the cable network or the mobile

telephone network. The link between equipment and the type

of network being used becomes ever less obvious. The

telephone apparatus can be connected to a telephone line, a

cable, or a data communication network. The network used

to access a service will no longer automatically be the

delivery network. This provides opportunities for intermediary

network management services. Through these services it will

be possible, for example, to order a movie by telephone, to

have it delivered through xDSL at a local server for later

viewing, or directly via optical fibre cables for direct

consumption (Bouwman et al., 2000).

The next generation of these services will be more intuitive

and there will be a trend towards real hypermedia. This

intuitive character is expressed in all forms of usage(Dertouzous, 1997). Information services will be

characterised by their multimedia nature. People will no

longer look for textual information, but they will visit virtual

reality sites and communities. The abundance of information

produces selection mechanisms such as push media in

combination with highly improved intelligent agents that

increasingly use individual and collective user profiles (Brown

and Duguid, 2000; Dertouzous, 2001; Kurzweil, 1999).

Communication services develop from speech-oriented

systems into systems where people can see one another

Figure 2 Combining technological

forecasting and scenarios in time

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``real time. In addition, communication services will focus

more on the management of communication flows and on

intelligent ways to solve coordination problems (Doherty and

Miller, 2000). Transaction services will play an increasingly

important role and by the year 2010 will have a variety of

forms: e-commerce, m-commerce, and c-commerce and

communication channels will be adapted to user needsdepending on the phase in the transaction process.

Entertainment services will, to a large degree, have acquired

the characteristics of personalised and individualised

interactive game-like services. Broadcast service will, to a

certain extent, be replaced by on-demand services.

3.2 Brainstorm

The results of the technology forecast were validated in

several brainstorm sessions. These brainstorm sessions

were supported by an electronic group decision support

system. In all, 28 experts took part. They were selected to

guarantee a diversity of perspectives, and thus to promote

the independence, accuracy and validity of the results. The

experts came from the business community, the scientific

community and from user groups such as the elderly,

immigrants and artists.

The participants were presented with the following three

questions with regard to a ten-year time span:

(1) What are the main underlying technologies that will

determine the use of ICT?

(2) What technologies in the area of ICT will we find in the

domestic environment?

(3) What services will people use in their domestic

environment?

3.3 Fundamental technological trends

Personalisation is important: technologies and s ervices in

the area of ICT are increasingly geared towards individual

demands. The architecture of systems can be increasingly

attributed to individual wishes and needs, especially since

standardised elements offer the user greater possibilities to

arrange the system according to his wishes. Users

themselves have more and more control over the way

services are being accessed. Various technologies allow

users to access the same service and the users specific

context will determine which is the preferred technology.

Wireless and mobile systems are becoming increasinglyimportant. Developments can only be slowed down by a lack

of radio spectrum, but that is primarily a political issue. Much

is expected, especially from the third and fourth generation

mobile systems (UMTS also indicated as 3G and beyond).

It is expected that in-home data communication networks,

whether or not based on wireless techniques, will play an

increasingly important role within the domestic environment

as well. It will be important to link applications through

networks. There will be a convergence of ICT and household

appliances, which is partly made possible by the increasing

intelligence in networks, facilitated by a central in-house

server, and appliances.

As far as the man-machine interface is concerned,

experts expect a trend towards increased intelligence,

whereby information and communication interfaces will be

less visible. System interfaces are increasingly being built

into existing appliances (embedded systems) and adapted

to peoples communication habits. Past behaviour will help

determine the choices that are being offered. ICT is

integrated in a natural interface. Image, speech, pointing,

etc. are important elements in this process, along with agent

technologies.

3.4 ICT in 2010

The participants expect PDA-like equipment, as well as

built-in intelligence and communication possibilities in

existing appliances, to play a significant role in household

use. PDAs will serve as a medium for telephony, agenda,

carrier of electronic money and authentication unit for all

kinds of different access systems. In other words, all thingsthat are convenient to carry around will be incorporated into a

single electronic PDA-like device. The most advanced form is

the incorporation of this type of system in clothing, so-called

wearables. These are clothes with stimulators and sensors,

and smart coats that can, for example, regulate the

temperature. These will be part of the person area network

(PAN or 4 G mobile networks).

Appliances already being used in the house will more and

more be equipped with intelligence. The front door will only

open after identification and authentication. Monitoring,

security and sensing systems will be a part of the living

environment. The heating and lighting units will be remote-

controlled. Various systems will be integrated through home

networks. The alarm clock will send a signal to the water

cooker or coffee machine. Intelligent fridges and washing

machines will be monitored at a distance and if necessary

new software will be downloaded to the machines. Intelligent

toilet bowls will be able to give advice on healthy life styles on

the basis of bio-chemical analysis.

Many of the developments surrounding TV and PC

assume that the difference between the 3ft and 10ft space

will erode, the result of which will be individualised screen

machines. Nevertheless, there are generic developments, for

instance TVs and PCs the size of a watch and separate

developments for the PC and TV. With regard to 3ft spaceappliances the experts believe that PCs with communication

functionality will be widely accepted in 2010. IP-telephony,

GroupWare systems, videoconferencing will be standard PC

add-ons. The PC interface will be based more on speech,

visualisation and the ability to share information in real time.

The interface has a multi-functionally layered structure

designed to match the users experience. This development

that can be compared to the levels already found in

computer games. The PC will thus become a learning

system adapting itself to the user.

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future, but it will also describe the dynamics of the final

situation. It can be seen as a causal diagram in which the

axes serve as important starting variables on the basis of

which the status and direction of other variables and trends

are determined.

The final step involves the perfection of the scenarios

stories and a further description of the effects of these stories

on our central question, what the use of ICT in the domestic

environment will look like in 2010.

In the case of the KPN scenarios we ended up with the

following axes (see Figure 3):& Individual vs collective. The difference between

individualists and collectivists lies in the degree to which

they let their own interests prevail above those of the

group to which they belong. Individualists have a strong

consciousness of self and put their own needs first

whenever possible without giving much thought to the

groups needs.

Collectivists on the other hand are more conscious of

the people around them, and strive to achieve aharmonious balance between individual and collective

interests. They feel inextricably involved in broader social

issues, and this is reflected in their interest in what

happens to other people.& Active vs passive. The difference between active and

passive people lies in the degree to which they explore

and change their environment rather than conform to

external influences. Passive people, on the other hand,

tend to conform to external influences and values. They

simply wait for things to happen and suppress their

internal impulses.

The results of this is the construction of four scenarios for2010 which are summarised below (Van der Duin et al.,

1999):

(1) Adventure. The ``adventure scenario of 2010 is based

on egocentric fun-lovers that, above all, crave more

excitement, variety and pleasure in their lives. They want

to have a good time with lots of thrills. Life is a fairy tale

and society is the theme park where it is played out.

Everyone is shamelessly selfish and unwilling to conform

to established social patterns. They are even less

prepared to make any kind of sacrifice for others.

``Flexibility and ``mobility are the catchwords. Life is all

about keeping on the move and it unfolds against the

background of a booming economy. These are the

``roaring 2000s, with economic growth and stock

exchange listings exceeding all conceivable limits. Theglobalisation of the economy is taking place at

breakneck speed. Companies consist of d ynamic,

independent networks.

(2) Budget. In 2010, the European economy is facing

problems. The economic bubble has burst, resulting in a

period of economic and social decay. Many companies

have gone bankrupt and the housing market has

collapsed. As a result, economic growth is far more

sluggish than it was in the 1990s. People work relatively

hard at highly irregular hours in an attempt to turn the

tide. With hard work, thriftiness and an occasional lucky

break, most people manage to keep their heads above

water. Money is a constant worry. The most striking

aspect of this scenario is peoples extreme price-

consciousness, with everyone attempting to squeeze

the most out of every last penny. In this world, certain

traits are crucial, such as the ability to calculate rapidly

and accurately, to be assertive during negotiations, and

to network successfully. An extensive network of

contacts has enabled people to establish and maintain

a system of mutual support, which has all the features of

an informal economy.

(3) Comfort. The keywords to describe this scenario in 2010

are ``comfort and ``usefulness. Its catchwords are

``reduced complexity, ``time saving and``rationalisation. After the turn of the century, society

responded to an increasingly complex world by

expressing a collective desire for control and comfort.

Consumers no longer want to choose from a whole

range of options, but want companies and organisations

to provide products and services that are fully tailored to

their needs. The most popular organisations are those

that provide a sound service and do the thinking for their

customers. Resolving day-to-day problems, providing

security, dealing with problems for consumers; these are

the services that rate high on the busy consumers list of

priorities. Consumers are extremely demanding andwant to be waited on hand and foot. High quality and

service at affordable prices are key requirements.

(4) Durable. This scenario of 2010 focuses on the quality of

life and is opposed to the idea that progress usually

means ``more. People are tired of innovations and have

slotted into a new mindset, giving them more time to

enjoy nature and each other. Success is no longer

measured according to income and possessions, but to

well-being and social behaviour. Rejecting the constant

desire for more has become a valued way of thinking.

Figure 3 Scenario framework

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People no longer want to be manipulated by advertising

and promotional campaigns. Consumerism is less

rampant. More and more people feel it is time to

re-examine the consumer society. They no longer want to

be pushed, but want to live life at a slower pace. Peace

and quiet are what counts, not joining in the rat race.

5. Combining technological forecasting with

scenarios

We will combine the results of the forecast regarding

equipment, networks and services with the scenarios so that

we can see to what extent the scenarios enrich technological

forecasting. For each scenario we will briefly describe what

those ICT categories might look like after 2010 and how they

might be used.

5.1 Equipment: TV

Currently many households have a stereo TV with teletext

connected to a VCR or DVD player. Technological

forecasting states that in 2010 there will be householdswhich will have TVs with flat digital wide screens and built in

set-top boxes. However, this forecast fails to give us any idea

about the (approximate) number of households where this

will be the case, how this TV will be used and which role it will

play in the household. Combing the technological forecasts

with the four scenarios should give us more insight in

possible adoption and use patterns:

(1) Adventure. Since the `àdventure scenario consists of

households (many of them single person households)

that have a very innovative attitude, an interactive digital

TV is indeed a regular phenomenon. Peoples homes

are filled with TV screens and some already have TV with

ambient technology-type of services, that is to say that

wherever they are in the house, the screens ``recognize

them and immediately start broadcasting their favourite

TV shows or give information regarding these

programmes. People who cannot afford the ambient

technology, have intelligent agents programmed in their

TV set which keep them up to date about shows to

come and provide links to other types of media. TV is no

longer a large, fixed device situated only in peoples

homes, they also watch TV on their mobile devices.

Satellites are very popular and watching the 6 oclock

tango show broadcast in Argentina is just as normal as

the 8 oclock news provided by Dutch broadcasters. Allthis does not imply that p eople in this scenario watch TV

all evening, that would be too boring to them. Because

of their busy lives they only watch selectively which also

means that the TV guide follows them and the

`àdventurous TV watcher decides which (by an

intelligent agent) pre-selected programmes his TV will

show, making use of all kinds of new interactive and

digital services, such as recording live broadcasts

simultaneously to ensure that the viewer does not miss

a thing.

(2) Budget. Owing to bad economic times people are not

very eager to adopt all kinds of new technology so the

good old TV set is still one of the most important sources

of entertainment in this scenario. Screens have almost

the same size as ten years before and the remote control

has gained some extra intelligence. People are not

prepared to invest a great deal of money in sets withspecial features because they consider them to be

simple devices suited merely to transmit TV signals. TV

and VCR/DVD players as yet are not integrated, nor is TV

integrated with other devices such as the PC or

telephone. Because people are mostly busy solving their

own problems they do not have a very broad social and

cultural orientation: national programmes are more

popular than foreign ones. End-users are constantly

making deliberate choices on what to spend money and

they, therefore, only want to pay for those channels that

they watch regularly. There is relatively little demand for

exotic and interactive TV channels. TV is considered

amusement, and a way for people to forget their

everyday worries, at a price they can afford.

(3) Comfort. As people consider all the various

communication and information devices in their busy

households too much of a nuisance, a device has been

developed that combines TV, VCR/DVD and PC. The

result is a kind of central controlling unit that is used not

only for watching TV but also for sending e-mails,

video-mails, shopping, agenda coordination and

domestic services such as regulating the in-house

temperature. The display screen more than ever before

occupies a place at the centre of the household and it

combines many functions of which saving time andmaking the daily routine as easy as possible are two of

the most important ones more important than

watching television. Just as in the `àdventure scenario

there are TV screens in many places in the house. Most

of them are nicely designed flat screens with easy user

interfaces (such as speech recognition), guaranteeing

up-to-date information tailored to the users needs. And,

at last, the VCR/DVD player has become a device that

everybody can control!

(4) Durable. Watching TV is a family affair and parents try to

make sure that their children do not watch too much.

Because many people value other things, such ashaving many personal (and local) contacts, adults also

try not to watch too much TV, as that may hinder those

personal contacts. And if they do watch TV they do so in

a very deliberate way: information programmes are the

most popular ones. Many TVs have ``filters, i.e. V-chips

that prevent children from seeing pornographic and

violent programmes, etc. An important function of the TV

is to provide background information regarding TV

programmes. Because people watch TV in a

conscientious way, it does not occupy a central place in

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their homes, but is located somewhere in a corner so

that people who really want to watch have to make an

effort to do so.

5.2 Networks: local loop (telephony)

Nowadays almost every household has a telephone

connection (a copper wire). Technological forecasting

expects that in 2010 there will be a huge competitionbetween various fixed and mobile infrastructures and

technologies with high capacity, ranging from telephone-

based xDSL, through fibre-optic links for cable to broadband

mobile services (3G and beyond). We will show that these

technologies can be varied based on the four scenarios. For

each scenario we will describe shortly how those networks

and matching services might look after 2010:

(1) Adventure. The competition between fixed and mobile

telephony is won by mobile (3G and beyond). All the

innovative ``adventurous end-users just love 3G and its

services because of its huge bandwidth and flexibility,

which offer a wide range of possibilities regarding all kindsof information services. 3G has become the dominant

mode of mobile communication (especially for business

people and youngsters) and in the average household we

see a lot of Wireless Local Loop (WLL) or Wireless LAN

techniques. Rather than focusing on the quality of the

services, end-users are very demanding in terms of the

type and amount of services that these technologies allow

them to access. By using a variety of services, brought to

them by all kinds of companies who looking for a market

niche, consumers can distinguish themselves from other

people. Mobile devices have really become a way of life to

which people are almost addicted.

(2) Budget. The development of network technologies is, to a

large extent, determined by economic motives. People do

not feel that mobile has enough added value to warrant

paying more money. As a result the competition between

fixed and mobile is to a large degree decided in favour of

fixed lines. Mobile turned out to be too expensive for

many people and the communication needs did not grow

at the pace they were expected to at the start of the new

millennium. Most people settle for being reachable.

Peoples mobility did not grow all that much either, which

meant that there was no great demand for mobile

services. People are happy with their fixed copper lines

and have resisted the operators attempts to sell themnew mobile services. They stick to 2 and 2.5G.

(3) Comfort. The need of end-users for easy and high

quality communication connections has resulted in a

situation whereby the competition between fixed and

mobile has ended in a draw. End-users are quite content

with the combination of fixed and mobile communication

and the easy-to-use services that combination makes

possible. The most important criteria for end-users are

high bandwidth and high quality (expressed in better

reachability and less redundancy). They are also willing

to pay more for that because they value the extra

comfort. Optical fibre has in many places substituted for

the copper wire because of the extra bandwidth that is

needed for all the information services and because of

the fact that people can afford it.

(4) Durable. Fear of radiation has had a negative impact on

mobile communication as compared to fixed networks.

People are trying to balance their digital and physical

communication. In addition, end-users pay a great deal

of attention to the health risk of their communication

device and connection. People are locally oriented, which

means that their mobility has remained roughly at the

same level. As a result mobile communication, already

having to deal with the problem of radiation, grows at a

relatively low rate, if at all. People are trying to balance

their professional and private activities. To avoid traffic

jams and unnecessary travelling, people increasingly

work at home and to do so they need sufficient

bandwidth, not for amusement but for serious work.

5.3 Services: entertainment

Nowadays, entertainment plays an important role in the

diffusion of new products and services, mainly because it

turns out that increasingly the early adopters are young

people (Rogers, 1962) and they value entertainment more

than other aspects such as functionality or user friendliness.

Also, the entertainment industry is growing very fast

(Howkins, 2001). Nevertheless, entertainment, for example,

in the form of computer games or gambling, most of the time

is consumed on stand-alone machines or in a non-interactive

way, although in Korea the so-called PC-Bangs, where

interactive networked games are played by groups of

youngsters, are very popular (Stewart and Park Choi, 2003).

Another development, often described as the ` experience

economy (Pine and Gilmore, 1999) means that

entertainment is not only presented by companies as a

service in itself but that it is also used as a way to sell other

products or services:

(1) Adventure. Because fun is one of the keywords in this

scenario one can imagine that entertainment is of crucial

importance! People are constantly looking for more and

new types of entertainment, such as gaming, to satisfy

their fast-growing appetite for entertainment.

Interactivity, personalisation and multimedia are

necessary conditions and it would seem as thoughpeople cannot get enough. Killer-apps of most new

products and services contain a high amount of

entertainment and people are very fond of games that

they can largely build themselves which means that

these products are to a much larger extent tailor-made.

Games are played to meet new people. Television is

considered a passive and boring medium. Although this

scenario does focus on the egocentric, games are often

played with and against other people; playing games on

your own is considered dull. On the other hand,

f o r e s i g h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3

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competing with others allows people to stand out

expressing their individuality. People do not play games

just in one place; because the ` need to play games can

come up anywhere, they want to have the possibility to

play games anywhere. This means that it is a common

thing to see people playing interactive games on mobile

devices in the streets and on the train.(2) Budget. In this scenario entertainment is seen as

something that is synonymous with wasting money. The

only purpose entertainment can serve is to forget the

harsh reality for a few moments and to experience some

old-fashioned happiness. Entertainment ranks lowest as

a motive to buy after value for money and utility. As

entertainment is something of a taboo, not many people

are seen enjoying it in public. Instead, they will do so in

private. People prefer watching a soccer game on a pay-

per-view basis to taking an expensive trip to a stadium.

Games are still being played the old-fashioned way and

Monopoly is still the most popular game (perhaps this

has something to do with the suggestion of being rich

and owning streets and houses).

(3) Comfort. In this scenario entertainment is mainly viewed

from a family perspective. This means that, for instance,

entertaining games should not only be fun to play but

should also have an educational value. Products and

services can have two (or more) functions

simultaneously, which saves time. In this respect it is

important for the entertainment to have a certain level of

quality, not only from an ethical point of view but also in

the sense that entertainment should be more than just

plain fun. Watching a television show should be a nice

family activity just as playing games on a TV set which

has integrated many PC functionalities.

(4) Durable. In the durable scenario, entertainment is

something which one does not enjoy on ones own but

together with ones friends, family, school or the

community to which one belongs. Entertainment should

have an educational or cultural value, allowing people to

learn something about the world in which they live.

Entertainment is seen as a way to communicate and

establish contact with other people rather than a

pleasant way to pass the time. Playing games on

modern mobile devices and PCs is not a goal in itself

but is only considered worthwhile when it enhances theeducational and entertainment value.

6. Conclusion and discussion

The main reason to combine technological forecasting and

scenarios is that this combination offers a number of

advantages over the isolated use of the two separate

techniques. These advantages are linked to both techniques.

By including specified technological developments the

scenarios are given more detail. Most scenarios focus on the

use of technology or the attitudes companies adopt with

respect to investment in technology rather than on what the

development of a specific technology will look like. Adding

detailed information concerning possible technological

developments enriches the scenario stories. Many scenarios

only contain a picture of, for instance, society at a particular

point in the future. But it is very important for the scenarios to

be plausible, so that it is also clear how, in this case, societywill develop between the present and that point in the future.

Technological forecasting can serve as a kind of roadmap

for the scenarios.

As much as the scenarios are enriched by the use of

technological forecasting, they in turn acquire greater depth

from the context provided by the scenarios, obtaining a more

specified meaning or goal. Of course, technological

forecasting focuses mainly on technology and not so much

on its use (embodied in products and services) or on the

users themselves. Scenarios can give technological

forecasting a ``face by picturing possible future users and

the way they handle the products. Because technological

forecasting is being supplemented by a set of scenarios, the

technology becomes more real and to a certain extent this

helps prevent the common mistake of making erroneous

predictions. In other words, the forecast acquires a broader

perspective which makes it also more valuable for decision

making.

Scenarios make it easier for decision makers to use

technological forecasting in their decision-making processes.

Technological forecasting focuses exclusively on a single

outcome and often does not assess the risks and

uncertainties surrounding a specific decision. In scenario

analysis it is common to use the concept of ``wind tunnelling,

that is to say, to test several decisions, for instance with regardto the allocation of R&D budgets, product development

projects or corporate strategies, in different scenarios, and it

can be used, for instance, by developers of peripheral

equipment, like Philips or Ericsson. Scenario analysis allows

the robustness of a decision to be tested because a certain

decision can be analysed in a number of scenarios. For

instance, a reduction of investments in innovation would be a

very bad decision in the ``adventure scenario because

consumers value companies that constantly come up with

new products and services. In the ``budget scenario this

decision would yield better results. By assessing various

possible decisions in all the scenarios it becomes clear whichidea is most likely to be successful in the various scenarios

and how uncertain specific decisions might be in the worlds

depicted in possible scenarios. The scenarios can be used as

a tool to assess the risk of decisions and to determine under

what conditions certain decisions can have positive or

negative consequences for society, the business community

as a whole or a specific company. In addition to helping us

gain more insight into possible future developments in various

domains of our society, scenarios or scenario thinking can

help companies cope with uncertainty.

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Furthermore, by combining scenarios for different related

technologies, such as peripheral equipment, networks and

entertainment services we can create a more coherent and

consistent picture of possible futures and indicate the

interdependencies between the various domains. Combined

with ``wind tunnelling, technological forecasting together with

scenarios make a powerful decision-making tool. By applyingthis tool to companies involved in media and communication

we are able to show that the scenarios can have different

consequences for those companies involved, not only in

terms of their strategy and the competences they need to

carry out that strategy but also with regard to the relationship

to each other. For instance, in the `àdventure scenario the

strategy of ``product leadership is important for every

company but for a content provider that means renewing its

content as often as possible while a broadcasting company

constantly has to produce new TV shows, combining all the

various forms of content in an exciting and intelligent way. The

relationship between them will become more competitive

because they both will have enough opportunities to choose

suppliers. As a result, they have to look for new ways to work

together which probably mean that linear concepts with the

kind of steady relationships expressed in ``value chains are

no longer sufficient.

In the ``comfort scenario this will be different. Companies

will strive to deliver as much comfort as possible to their

customers and try to offer one-stop-shopping, offering tailor-

made products and services. For broadcasting companies

this will mean that they must focus not only on broadcasting

TV programmes, but they also have to try to be active in

other fields such as the Internet. For content providers it will

mean that the content they offer should have a more mixed-media character, in other words their content must be

accessible using various types of media. As far as

relationships are concerned, the ``comfort scenario will force

companies to cooperate very closely to make one-stop-

shopping possible. This close cooperation might even result

in big mergers and acquisitions.

Of course, the use of scenarios is not without its risks,

which is why we chose to combine it with technology

forecasting. Although many scenario projects are successful

(see section 2.2), there are also many that fail. This can, for

instance, be due to a lack of diversity with regard to the input.

In those cases scenarios do not provide additional or newinformation. Another problem can be a lack of involvement

on the part of clients who may be disinclined to use the

scenarios because they feel the scenarios are insufficiently

relevant to their business. With regard to the construction of

(corporate) strategies, the ``wind tunnelling exercise may

result in a very broadly formulated strategy (``we do

everything for everybody for the lowest price and the highest

quality) which lacks the focus required to be really

successful in business (Porter, 1996). It also fails to take into

account that companies operate and formulate their strategy

in a situation of economic scarcity, which means that they do

not have the economic and organisational resources to carry

out those broad and generalised strategies.

Notes

1 In this article we use the term ``futures research. Other terms for

looking at the future include: foresight, forecasting or futures

studies. We prefer to use the term futures research because of its

comprehensive character. Foresight refers often only to looking at

the future as carried out by and for governments; forecasting in

general refers to just predictive methods of looking at the future;

and futures studies is often found in relation to specific topics such

as sustainability and green politics.

2 KPN Research was, until 2003, the R&D organisation of KPN, the

Dutch incumbent telecom operator. Currently it is a department of

TNO, a Dutch research institute, and is called TNO Telecom.

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article Bouwman Van der Duin Technology forecasting and scenarios matter