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Efficiency & Renewables in the Electricity Sector prepared for CalCEF ’ s Forum, 18 June 2007, on Transforming Technology with Policy: California ’ s Success in the Clean Energy Transition. Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Efficiency & Renewables in the Electricity Sector
prepared for CalCEF’s Forum, 18 June 2007, on Transforming Technology with Policy:
California’s Success in the Clean Energy Transition
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission
(916) [email protected]
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
2
CO2 Emissions in California Including Electricity Imports1990 - 2004
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
year
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s o
f C
O2
eq.
14 year growth rate of 1.0%/year
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e E
qu
iva
len
t
Historical
Projected Business as Usual
To Meet AB 32 Goal
CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected
174 MM tons = 30%
4
California’s CO2 Emissions by End-Use Sectors 2004
Total Emissions = ~500 Million Metric Tons CO2 (eq.)
Non-Combustion (net)15%
Industry Petroleum
8%
Transportation Petroleum
41%
Buildings natural gas7%
Industry electricity
6%
Industry natural gas7%
Buildings electricity
16%
22%
14%
5
CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation -- Million Metric Tons
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
year
MM
TO
NS
CO
2
Out of state generation
In state generation
2.2% Annual Growth Rate 1990 to 2004
6
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
96
0
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita
7
Electricity Generation for California 1983-2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
GW
h
Historical
Forecasted Growth Rate = 1.2%/year
8
Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,0001
97
5
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
GW
h/y
ea
r
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003Or 0.5% per year over 30 years
9
California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,00019
76
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Mill
ions
of
$200
2 pe
r Y
ear
Forecast
Profits decoupled from sales
Performance Incentives
Market Restructuring
Crisis
IRP2% of 2004
IOU Electric Revenues
Public Goods Charges
10Source: Funding and Savings from IOU Efficiency Programs, Rogers, et. al.
Figure 9 IOU Projected Electricity Savings Compared to Goals 2004-2008
2724248221521789 1901
25062275203218381838
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GW
h/Y
ea
r
IOU Planned Savings CPUC Goals
Savings growth rate has doubled to ~1% per year
11
Renewable Electricity Generation in California (not including large hydroelectric, > 30 MW)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005year
GW
H
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Solar
11% of Generation in 2005
Small Hydro <30 MW
12
Source: Pat McAuliffe, [email protected]
Possible Strategies to Reduce Electricity Sector Carbon Emissions in California, ignoring ramp up times and other implementation issues -- The ELECTRICITY Perspective
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
GW
H
Triple EE Programs
Doubling Standards
20% Renewables
More Efficient Combustion
Less or Cleaner Coal
13
Source: Pat McAuliffe, [email protected]
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s o
f C
O2
eq.
Triple EE Programs
Doubling Standards
20% Renewables
More Efficient Combustion
Less or Cleaner Coal
Possible Strategies to Reduce Electricity Sector Carbon Emissions in California, ignoring ramp up times and other implementation issues -- The CARBON Perspective
14
Energy Efficiency, 17%
Renewable Energy, 10%
Cleaner Power Plants, 9%
Clean Cars, 28%
Renewable Fuels, 2%
Smart Growth, 15%
Water Efficiency, 1%
Forestry, 20%
Other Strategies , 4%
Strategies for Meeting California’s CO2 Goals in 2020
Total Reductions = 174 Million metric Tons CO2 equivalent
15
California Renewables Portfolio Standard
• Designed to increase diversity, reliability, public health and environmental benefits of California’s energy mix.
• Current legislative goal of 20% of retail sales from renewables by 2010; increase by at least 1% per year.
• Some discussion of increasing the goal to 33% by 2020
Historical and Projected RenewableSales in California (1983-2020)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Year
Est
ima
ted
Sta
tew
ide
Re
new
able
sG
Wh
/yea
r (E
xclu
din
g L
arg
e H
ydro
)
1998 Renewable Energy Program
20% by 2017
20% by 2010
33% by 2020
2001 Energy Crisis
2002 RPS
11% in 2006 Renewable Energy Generation
16
California Solar Initiative :“Zero energy” new homes
• $ 3 Billion Dollars over 10 years– Current rebate of $2.80 per watt but tied to improved home
efficiency for new homes– Goal of 3,000 MW within 10 years, mostly residential locations
• A 2 kW Alternating Current PV system on a home with a 3 kW central air conditioning on an annual basis 7,500 kWh (typical new home in California)-3,000 kWh (PV output) 4,500 kWh remaining load -2,500 kWh reduction in load due to extra energy efficiency
2,000 kWh (Net purchase of utility energy)
• www.GoSolarCalifornia.ca.gov
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