Artesian Geological Research 1 Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least

Artesian Geological ResearchArtesian Geological Research 11

Global Warming and Global Warming and ScienceScience

So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the publicpublic

There is at least one alternate hypothesis There is at least one alternate hypothesis and a new theoryand a new theory

Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, TorontoFran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto



What is Global Warming?What is Global Warming? Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied

Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between themwith interglacial periods warmer than now between them

Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average). year (arithmetic average). ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down. ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down. All the world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they lived on the All the world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they lived on the

continental shelves. continental shelves.

Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warminfluences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm

There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El NiThere are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niñño’, among others: for o’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.Milankovich orbital cycle.


Athabasca Glacier has been Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the ice agereceding since the ice age


Pennekamp Park – Key LargoPennekamp Park – Key LargoReefs keep pace with sea level riseReefs keep pace with sea level rise


Solar SystemSolar System


What If?What If? If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat,

we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like a sun-dried tomatoand end up like a sun-dried tomato

Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºCMercury - + 427 to – 172 ºCMars - temperate zone soil Mars - temperate zone soil + 27 to – 80 ºC+ 27 to – 80 ºCMoon - + 107 to 153 ºCMoon - + 107 to 153 ºC


What is the Greenhouse Effect?What is the Greenhouse Effect?

Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat energy Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into spaceand reduce the amount that escapes into space

This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’the ‘Greenhouse Effect’

This gives us a global average temperature of This gives us a global average temperature of +15+15°C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse °C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse EffectEffect


Important FactsImportant Facts

Water vapour is the most important Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)the atmosphere (jury still out)

COCO22 and other minor gasses account for the and other minor gasses account for the

remainderremainder


Contribution to the Greenhouse Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including water vapour) Effect (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.htmlhttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html


Is Global Warming Happening?Is Global Warming Happening? Lets examine some very wiggly curves Lets examine some very wiggly curves

Death Valley California - temperature trendDeath Valley California - temperature trend


Berkeley CaliforniaBerkeley California


Blaine WashingtonBlaine Washington


New York NYNew York NY


Albany NYAlbany NY


Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gapHarrisburg Pa – Civil War gap


State University MississippiState University Mississippi


Chicago IllinoisChicago Illinois


Houlton Maine - Did someone Houlton Maine - Did someone shoot the weatherman?shoot the weatherman?


Buffalo NYBuffalo NY


Niagara Falls NY - 1911Niagara Falls NY - 1911


Key West FloridaKey West Florida


Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series dataseries data

Those weather stations are located where people are living. Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density world, rather a measure of increasing human density

Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are far (remote) Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City?about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City?

Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming. warming.


RealisticallyRealistically The planet is not warming in the dramatic The planet is not warming in the dramatic

manner the alarmists claim manner the alarmists claim There are many other sites that demonstrate There are many other sites that demonstrate

coolingcooling I accept the warming but not the dramaI accept the warming but not the drama I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – COI do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO22

Why are the graphs so wiggly?Why are the graphs so wiggly? Because climate is not weatherBecause climate is not weather


Kamél, 2003Kamél, 2003

““In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that have shown that firstfirst temperature rises, and temperature rises, and thenthen carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in COincrease which causes the increase in CO22 and not the and not the

other way around. other way around.

The extra COThe extra CO22 could at most add a little extra warming could at most add a little extra warming

to what is going on, but not even that is certain”.to what is going on, but not even that is certain”.


COCO22 increase in the atmosphere is increase in the atmosphere is

a trailing phenomenona trailing phenomenonThroughout the greatest temperature transitions Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, atmospheric COatmospheric CO22 concentration has been proven to concentration has been proven to

have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years change, rising from one to five thousand years afterafter major increases in air temperature, and falling in major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001). Mudelsee, M., 2001).


Observations Observations

Warming precedes COWarming precedes CO22 increase - likely due increase - likely due to warming of the oceansto warming of the oceans COCO22 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your

Guinness to see this effect)Guinness to see this effect)

COCO2 2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more COgas effect – more CO22– less effectiveness– less effectiveness


COCO22 has inverse solubility in has inverse solubility in

liquidliquid Solubility of solids increases directly with Solubility of solids increases directly with

temperature of the solventtemperature of the solvent sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than

coldcold

Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in coldcold water and evolves rapidly out of water and evolves rapidly out of warmwarm water water Don’t shake your Guinness!Don’t shake your Guinness!


And…And…

You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic COthat the new anthropogenic CO22 from the from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating…into uncontrollable heating…


COCO2 2 Feedback effectFeedback effect Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)

Analogous to Venetian blinds and lightAnalogous to Venetian blinds and light Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the

same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking incoming lightincoming light

More COMore CO22– less additional greenhouse effect– less additional greenhouse effect

Increase in COIncrease in CO22 has less effect because has less effect because

Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated. line is clearly saturated.

If you increase the number of COIf you increase the number of CO22 molecules in the atmosphere, molecules in the atmosphere,

not much will happennot much will happen


Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses -

vs. increasing COvs. increasing CO22 content content -- Willis EschenbachWillis Eschenbach


Absorption wavelength Absorption wavelength COCO22 vs. H vs. H22OO


Look up! - Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digitrecognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit


Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003

y = 0.1139x + 32.886

R2 = 0.061

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year


Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature anomalyanomalyBlack – Temperature anomalyBlack – Temperature anomalyRed – Sun spot peak frequencyRed – Sun spot peak frequency


Friis-Christensen and Lassen Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine(1991) Science Magazine 95% correlation between sunspot peak 95% correlation between sunspot peak

frequency and the temperature anomalyfrequency and the temperature anomaly Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the

temperature curvetemperature curve But, correlation is not causationBut, correlation is not causation What is the cause?What is the cause?


Danish National Space CentreDanish National Space Centre ““An essential role for remote stars in everyday weather on Earth has been An essential role for remote stars in everyday weather on Earth has been

revealed by an experiment at the Danish National Space Center in revealed by an experiment at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen. It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which Copenhagen. It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in exploded stars far away in the Milky Waythe Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial , penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons. amounts of ions and release free electrons.

Now, results from the Danish experiment show that the released Now, results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first timeexperimentally identified for the first time.”.”

http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-thehttp://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-climate-cosmic-connection-to-climate


Danish Space Centre TheoryDanish Space Centre Theory ‘‘Active’ sun Active’ sun →→ enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = enhanced magnetic and thermal flux =

solar windsolar wind →→ geomagnetic shieldgeomagnetic shield responseresponse →→ less low- less low-level clouds level clouds →→ less albedo (less heat reflected) less albedo (less heat reflected) → → warmer warmer climateclimate

Less active sun Less active sun → → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind reduced solar wind → → geomagnetic shield dropsgeomagnetic shield drops → → galactic cosmic ray fluxgalactic cosmic ray flux →→ more low-level clouds more low-level clouds →→ More More snow snow →→ more albedo (more heat reflected) more albedo (more heat reflected) →→ colder colder climateclimate

That's how the bulk of climate change worksThat's how the bulk of climate change works Coupled with sunspot peak frequencyCoupled with sunspot peak frequency there are there are

cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the oceanthe ocean


PotentiallyPotentially large sources of large sources of cosmic radiation when stars cosmic radiation when stars supernovasupernova


COCO22 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen

(Science, 1991) (Science, 1991) www.friendsofscience.orgwww.friendsofscience.org


COCO22 and Temperature Anomaly and Temperature Anomaly

Temperature rise preceded COTemperature rise preceded CO22 from 1890 from 1890 to 1950 to 1950

COCO22 does not correlate with temperature does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970anomaly from 1940 to 1970

Temperature rise does correlate with solar Temperature rise does correlate with solar activityactivity

COCO22 rise cannot be a cause of warming rise cannot be a cause of warming


Water vapour is the most Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gasimportant greenhouse gas

The most variable component of the atmosphere is The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals. droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas.strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change.central to the climate and its variability and change.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisClimate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Section 1.1.2 The Climate SystemSection 1.1.2 The Climate System


We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since sunspots were first recordedsince sunspots were first recorded


Cycle 23Cycle 23 The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)

Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal too)Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal too) We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall and We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall and

winterwinter Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a warmer Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a warmer

than usual climate and also the result of the Danish than usual climate and also the result of the Danish cloud chamber experimentcloud chamber experiment High precipitation in humid regions of the planet like the High precipitation in humid regions of the planet like the

Great Lakes Region and NA west coastGreat Lakes Region and NA west coast Desertification in regions of low humidityDesertification in regions of low humidity

El NinoEl Nino


Why? Realistically?Why? Realistically? Is COIs CO22 the target? the target?

COCO22 hypothesis has precedence (1897)? hypothesis has precedence (1897)? Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’

Repetition of stale ‘science’Repetition of stale ‘science’

Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria! Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo! Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey StickPublish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick Research grants? – Tied to outcomeResearch grants? – Tied to outcome

All of the above?All of the above?


Original SinOriginal SinGracious no! Humans can only claim Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4% responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide of carbon dioxide emittedemitted to the atmosphere to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, Woods Hole) Woods Hole) Anthropogenic 0.11% of the global COAnthropogenic 0.11% of the global CO22 cycle cycle www.CO2Science.orgwww.CO2Science.org


My hypothesis is very weakMy hypothesis is very weak

Eruption of Krakatau, 1883Eruption of Krakatau, 1883


Skepticism or ObjectivitySkepticism or Objectivity


Moving to higher ground above Moving to higher ground above An Inconvenient TruthAn Inconvenient Truth

"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental "A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"testing becomes a scientific theory"


Key ReferencesKey References

Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991:Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, Science, New Series, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.

Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006:and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal Society (A), Society (A), Proc. R Soc. AProc. R Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online., doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.


ReferencesReferencesTemperatureTemperature

Lars Kamél, 2003:Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate Temperature measurements: Is climate research research pseudo science? pseudo science?

Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made since. few updates made since.

http://http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htmwww.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

United States Historical Climatology Network datasetUnited States Historical Climatology Network dataset

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html


ReferencesReferences

CO2 as plant foodCO2 as plant food

Eamus, D. 1996:Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO Responses of field grown trees to CO22 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.

Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003:Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.

Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998:Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and Tree and forest functioning in an enriched COforest functioning in an enriched CO22 atmosphere. New atmosphere. New Phytologist 139: 395-436.Phytologist 139: 395-436.


ReferencesReferencesCO2 Saturation

Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)

Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO2, Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden

http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

CO2 Trailing effect

Mudelsee, M., 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.


Other Reading Other Reading deFreitas, C.R., 2002:deFreitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in

the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science, 50, No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.Auckland, New Zealand.

McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005:McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components, Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710, and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710, doi:10.1029/2004GL021750doi:10.1029/2004GL021750

Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006:Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee Ad hoc committee report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.

The IPCC ReportThe IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment ReportClimate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four consists of four sub-reports: 1) sub-reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisClimate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) , 2) Climate Change Climate Change 2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) , 3) Climate Change Climate Change 2001:Mitigation,2001:Mitigation, and 4) and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis ReportClimate Change 2001: Synthesis Report..


Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)[email protected]

323 Blantyre AvenueToronto Ontario

M1N 2S6 Canada416-698-6291


AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Jim TilsleyJim Tilsley Les MannsLes Manns Richard BedellRichard Bedell

Documents

Artesian Geological Research 1 Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least