Arrighi Workers

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    st ruggl ing to s tave of f dec l ine

    in membership and

    pol i t ica l

    in f luence. f f my d iagnos is o f

    t he

    jo in t

    c r i s is o f

    o rgan i zed

    labor and Communist

    regimes

    underestimated anything,

    it was

    the

    speed

    at

    which

    the

    cr is is

    was unfold ing

    and the

    extent

    to which

    it I{OULd

    fesult

    in

    the

    extinct ion

    rather

    than

    transformation

    of

    ex is t ing

    work ing-c l -ass organizat ions.

    But

    the very

    pace

    and

    dest ruct iveness

    of

    the cr is is conf i rm

    wi th

    a vengeance

    the

    val id i ty of the content ion that the work ing-c lass organizat ions

    that had been

    "made"

    in the early

    twentieth centuly

    were

    in the

    process

    of

    being

    "unmade"

    at

    the

    end

    of

    the century .

    This does

    not

    mean that

    the world labor

    movement

    has no

    future. What

    i t does

    mean is that ,

    in

    order

    to

    be

    at

    al l

    ef fect ive,

    the wor ld

    labor movement

    in

    the twent ieth- f i rs t

    century

    wi l l have

    to develop

    st rategies

    and

    st ructures

    as

    different

    from those

    of

    the twentieth century

    as

    the latter

    were

    f rom

    those of

    the n ineteenth.

    Wor ld

    capi ta l ism

    evol -ves

    cont inual ly ,

    and

    so do

    the condi t ions

    under

    which

    the

    work ing

    c lasses

    of

    the wor ld

    make

    thei r own

    his tory .

    In order

    to

    grasp

    how

    these condi t ions are evolv ing, w€ must

    f i rs t of

    a l l d ispel

    two misconcept ions

    concerning

    the

    present

    cr is is

    of

    wor ld l -abor .

    The f i rs t

    misconcept ion

    is

    that

    the

    cr is is

    is due

    pr imar i ly

    ei ther

    to

    a

    decl - ine

    in

    the dispos i t ion

    of

    workers

    to

    struggle

    to

    protect

    or

    improve

    their

    working

    and

    l iv ing

    condi t ions,

    or

    to

    the ef fects

    of

    the re locat ion

    of

    indust r ia l

    act iv i t ies

    f rom

    high

    income

    to lower

    income

    count r ies .

    The

    second

    misconcept ion

    is that

    the cr is is

    demonst rates

    the

    fai lure of

    the

    wor ld

    labor

    movement

    as inst i tuted

    in

    the

    f i rs t

    hal f of

    the

    twent ieth century

    to at ta in

    i ts

    object ives,

    as

    wel1

    as

    the capaci ty

    of

    wor ld capi ta l ism

    to overcome

    indef in i te ly

    i ts

    l imi ts

    and cont radic t ions.

    The

    f irst

    misconcept ion

    is based

    on

    a nal row

    focus on

    the

    labor

    movement

    in core count r ies ,

    and a

    lack of

    at tent ion

    to

    the

    wider

    and longer- term

    ef fects

    of

    the re locat ion

    of

    indust r ia l

    ac t i v i t ies .

    Cap i t a l ,

    US cap i ta l

    i n

    par t i cu lar ,

    has

    been

    relocat ing

    i ts act j -v i t ies

    to lower

    income

    count r ies

    throughout

    the twent ieth

    century .

    US corporat ions

    became

    transnat ional

    a lmost

    as

    soon as they

    had completed

    thei r

    cont inent -wide

    domestic

    integration

    at the turn of

    the century;

    and by

    1944 US

    direct

    investment

    abroad amounted

    to 7

    percent

    of

    US GNP,

    the

    same

    percentage

    as in the late

    1960s

    and a s1i9ht1y

    higher

    percentage

    than today

    (2) .

    These

    relocat ions

    dj -d contain,

    and

    at

    t imes ro l led back,

    the bargain ing

    power

    and dispos i t ion

    to

    st ruggle of the US work ing c lass. But these domest ic ef fects

    were more

    than counterbalanced

    on

    a wor ld

    scale by

    the

    st rengthening

    of

    the bargain ing

    power

    and dispos i t ion

    to

    st ruggle

    of

    the work ing c lasses

    of

    the count r ies

    to which

    indust r ia l

    ac t i v i t ies were

    re loca ted

    (3 ) .

    More

    general ly ,

    new wor ldwide data on

    labor

    unrest based

    on

    2

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    of capi ta l ism' r

    - -began

    announcing

    i ts own

    matur i ty by

    turning

    into

    the f i nanc ia l expans ion

    o f

    t he 1970s and 1980s .

    I n t he

    l97Qs ,

    the

    expansion of f inanc ia l act iv i t ies was

    assoc iated wi th,

    and in

    many ways contributed tor €rrr

    expansion of capital

    f lows

    from high

    ta lower ineome

    count r ies .

    fn

    the L980s/

    cross-border

    borrowing

    and lending

    cont j -nued

    to

    grow

    exponent ia l ly -

    - the

    stock

    of

    internat ional

    bank

    lending

    r is ing f rom

    4

    per

    cent of

    the

    tota l

    GDP qf al - l OECD count r ies in l -980 to 44 per cent in L99I . But

    capi ta l f lows f rom high to lower income count r ies ,

    af ter

    cont ract ing

    sharply in the

    ear ly

    1-980s, began to

    recover only

    towards the

    end of

    the

    decade

    (8) .

    The ul t imate and

    pr iv i leged*

    destination of the capital withdrawn

    from trade and

    production

    in

    core

    locat ions, in

    other

    words, has not

    been

    lower

    income

    count r ies but the

    "hidden

    abodes" of

    f inanc ia l speculat ion

    that

    connect h igh income count r ies

    to

    one

    another . I t was th is

    wi thdrawal , rather than re locat ion, that in

    the 1980s

    prec ip i tated

    the

    cr is is

    of wor ld labor .

    As

    prev i -ous ly

    ment ioned, th is

    cr is is

    should not be

    misconst rued as ev idence in support of the v iew that the wor ld

    labor movement as ins t i tuted in

    the f i rs t hal f of

    the twent ieth

    century fa i led to

    at ta in i ts

    object ives,

    or of

    the v iew that

    wor ld

    capi ta l ism can

    overcome

    indef in i te ly i ts

    l imi ts and

    cont radic t ions.

    Let us begin by

    not ic ing that

    powerfu l

    work ing-

    alass organizat ions of

    the Trade Unionis t , Soc ia l

    Democrat ic

    and

    Communis t

    var iet i -es establ ished

    themselves in

    the f i rs t

    hal f

    of

    the twent ieth century

    as key inst i tut ions of wor ld

    soc iety

    under

    condi t ions of

    a lmost

    uninterrupted warfare or

    preparat ion

    for war

    among

    capi ta l is t

    s tates. The establ ishment

    of Communis t

    revolut ion as a force

    in

    wor ld

    pol i t ics ,

    f i rst

    in Russ ia

    and then

    in

    China,

    was of course

    a

    di rect

    resul t of

    the ravages of

    the two

    Wor ld Wars.

    But

    even

    in core capi ta l is t

    count r ies ,

    the

    greatest

    waves of class struggle occurred towards the end and immediately

    a f t e r

    t he two

    Wor ld Wars

    (9 ) .

    The US Cold War wor ld order ,

    and the

    great

    expansion of

    world

    trade and

    production

    that

    occurred

    under

    the auspices of

    that order/ were

    thoroughly shaped

    by

    this

    joint

    advance of

    organized

    labor in

    core eount r ies

    and of Communis t

    revolut ion in

    semiper ipheral and

    per j -pheral

    count r ies .

    By the end of

    the

    Second Wor ld War

    th is

    jo int

    advance was widely

    perceived

    as

    const i tut ing

    a

    fundamental

    threat for the very surv ival of wor ld

    capi ta l ism. I f the advance was not

    contained

    and eventual ly

    reversed, the

    only

    quest ion

    that seemed to remain

    open

    was not

    whether world capital ism would survive

    but by

    what

    combination of

    reforms and revolut ions i t would die. The US " invent ion" of the

    CoId War was

    pr imar i ly

    a response to th is s i tuat ion

    of emergency

    fo r wor l d cap i t a l i sm.

    Under the CoId War worl-d order the advances of the world

    labor movement

    of

    the

    first half of the twentieth century were

    indeed

    contained and, eventual ly / reversed but only through a

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    rou t j - n i zed ;

    and a f t e r a b r i e f

    rev iva l

    in

    t he l a t e

    l -960s ,

    i t

    s tar ted

    to

    dec l - ine

    prec ip i tuous ly .

    By no

    st retch of

    the imiginat ion,

    howeverr

    cdr l

    th is

    miraeulous

    reeovery

    of

    wor ld

    capi ta l ism

    be

    const rued

    as

    a fa i lure

    ;?- t [e- ;o i ro

    rabor-movement ,

    and even

    ]ess

    as

    a rast ing

    resolut ion

    of

    the

    cont radic t ions

    of

    capi ta l ism.

    On

    the

    cont rary ,

    the recovery of wor ld capi ta l ism was based pr imar i ly , not on the

    negat ion,

    but

    on

    the

    part ia l

    real izat ion

    by

    wor ld

    capi ta l ism

    i tsel f of

    the object ives

    of

    the wor ld

    labor

    movement

    of

    the

    preceding half century.

    This

    accomodation

    does

    demonstrate

    the

    ext raordinary

    adaptabi l i ty

    of

    wor ld

    capi ta l ism

    as

    his tor ical

    soc ia l

    system.

    gut

    the onset

    of

    a new

    f inanc ia l

    expansion

    around

    1-g7O

    shows

    that

    th is

    adaptabi l i ty

    has

    l imi ts ,

    and

    that

    the

    approaching

    of

    these

    l imi ts

    br ings

    back

    to

    the

    fore

    the

    cr is is

    tendencies

    of

    capi ta l ism

    in o ld

    and

    new forms.

    I I

    F inanc ia l

    expansions

    are

    moments

    of cr is is

    and

    fundamental

    reorganizat ion

    of

    the capi ta l is t

    wor ld-economy.

    As in

    al l

    the

    f inanc ia l

    expansions

    of

    prev ious

    centur ies,

    the dr iv ing

    force

    behind

    the

    piesent

    divers ion

    of

    capi ta l

    f rom

    the

    purchase and

    sale

    of commodi t ies

    ( inc luding

    wage

    labor ,

    p lant

    and

    equipment)

    to borrowing,

    lending

    and

    speculat ion

    has been

    a

    major

    intens i f icat ion

    of

    intercapi ta l is t

    compet i t ion,

    i tsel f

    a

    consequence

    of

    the

    preceding

    expansion

    of wor ld

    t rade

    and

    product ion ( l -2) .

    As o ld

    and new enterpr ises

    invested

    a

    growing

    mass of

    capi ta l

    in the

    purchase

    and sale

    of commodi t ies ,

    they

    brought

    down

    prof i t

    margins

    in

    thei r

    respect ive

    l ines

    of

    bus iness.

    And

    as

    an increas ing

    number of

    enterpr ises

    sought

    to

    counter diminishing returns by divers i fy ing thei r act iv i t ies

    across

    locat ions

    and

    l ines of bus iness/

    they

    invaded one

    another 's

    market

    niches

    and thereby

    fur ther

    intens i f ied

    compet i t ive

    pressures

    and

    uncer ta inty

    in

    a1l branches

    of

    t rade

    and

    product ion.

    Under

    these

    c i rcumstances,

    i t

    is only

    natural

    that

    a

    growing

    mass of

    capital

    should

    be

    withdrawn

    from

    trade

    and

    production

    and

    held l iquid

    to

    avoj -d

    the r isks

    and t roubles

    of

    investment

    in an

    increas ingly

    compet i t ive

    and

    uncer ta in

    bus iness

    envi ronment .

    Th is

    l a rge and

    grow ing

    mass o f

    surp lus cap i ta l - -cap i - ta l ,

    t ha t

    i s ,

    that cannot

    be

    reinvested

    prof i tably

    in

    the

    purchase

    and sale of

    commodi t ies - - in

    i t se l f

    c rea tes

    a l l

    k i nds o f

    p ro f i t ab le

    opportuni t ies for f inanc ia l intermediar ies to borrow, 1end, and

    specu la te .

    H is tor ica l l y ,

    however ,

    t he f u11

    f l ou r i sh ing

    o f

    f inanc i -a l

    expansions,

    has always been

    assoc iated

    wi th

    an

    intens i f icat ion

    of

    inters tate

    compet i t ion

    for the capi ta l

    that

    was being

    withdrawn

    from trade

    and

    production. As competit ion

    in

    commodity

    markets

    escalated,

    governments

    tended

    to step

    into the

    struggle

    and to compete

    with

    one another

    for the capital

    needed

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    to overpower

    r ivals ,

    most ly ,

    though

    not

    exc lus ively ,

    through

    an

    escalat ion

    in

    the

    armament

    race.

    This

    compet i t ion,

    in

    turn,

    mul t ip l ied

    opportuni t ies

    to

    prof i t

    f rom

    the mobi l izat ion

    of

    surplus

    capi ta l

    in borrowing,

    lending

    and

    speculat ion.

    This

    pat tern

    can

    be

    clear ly

    recognized

    in

    the

    present

    as

    in

    past

    f inan-c ia l

    expansions.

    Throughout

    the

    1-970s,

    surplus

    capi ta l

    ias channeled

    in

    di rect ions-- lending

    to semiper ipheral and

    per ipheral count r ies

    and

    speculat ion

    in currency

    markets-- that

    fur ther

    increased

    compet i t ive

    pressures and

    uncer ta inty

    in

    wor ld

    t rade

    and

    product ion wi thout

    increas ing

    returns

    in

    f inanc ia l

    markets .

    ALundant

    and cheap

    credi t

    encouraged

    semiper ipheral

    and

    per ipheral - count r ies

    to

    step

    up

    thei r

    indust r ia l izat ion

    and

    i rodein izat ion

    ef for ts

    and,

    Lherefore,

    to compete

    over

    markets

    and

    resources

    (most

    notably ,

    o j - I )

    that

    had

    prev ious ly been

    the

    pr iv i leged

    preserve

    of

    core

    count r ies .

    Speculat ion

    in

    currency

    i rarkets- ,

    for

    i ts

    par t ,

    f i rs t

    undermined,

    and

    then

    dest royed

    the

    system

    of

    f ixed

    exchange

    rates

    that

    had contributed

    to

    the

    s lab i l i t y

    o f

    wor ld

    economic

    cond i t i ons

    in

    the

    1950s

    and

    l -960s .

    This fur lher increase in compet i t ive

    pressures and

    uncer ta inty

    strengthened

    the

    overall

    tendency

    of

    capital

    to

    withdraw

    from

    trade

    and

    product ion;

    i t w idened

    the disequi l ibr ium

    between

    a

    rapid ly

    expanding

    suppty

    and

    a s tagnant

    demand

    for

    surplus

    c .p i t t f ;

    ana

    i t depressed

    re turns

    in

    f i nanc ia l

    markets

    (13 ) .

    I t was

    only

    af ter

    1-979

    hat

    the US

    government ,

    f i rs t

    under

    Carter ,

    and

    then

    wi th

    much

    greater

    determinat ion

    under

    Reagan,

    took

    steps

    that created

    highly

    favorabLe

    demand

    condit ions

    for

    the

    ongoing

    f inanc ia l

    expansion.

    These

    steps

    were

    taken

    in

    the

    contex i

    of

    a major

    escalat ion

    of

    the

    ideological

    s t ruggle

    and

    armament

    race

    wit t r

    the USSR--what

    Fred

    Hal l iday

    has

    cal led

    the

    Second

    Cold

    War.

    Responding

    to the

    ser ious

    deter iorat ion

    of

    US

    power and prest ige thet ensued f rom mi l i tary defeat in Indochina

    ind dip loml t ic

    defeat

    in

    l ran,

    the

    US

    government came

    to the

    rescue

    of

    a bat tered

    dol1ar

    by

    aggress ively

    bidding

    up real

    interest

    rates

    in wor ld

    f inanc ia l

    markets .

    I t

    then

    used

    the

    seemingly

    unl imi ted

    credi t

    that

    i t

    gained

    through

    these

    measures

    to escil l te

    the armament

    race

    weII

    beyond

    what

    the

    the

    USSR

    could

    af ford

    and,

    s imul taneously ,

    to cut

    taxes

    to win

    electoral

    support

    for

    the

    new

    ant i -Communis t

    crusade.

    The

    resul t

    was

    an increase

    of

    his tor ic

    propor t ions

    in the

    US

    nat ional

    debt ,

    which

    prov ided

    domest ic

    and-

    foreign

    surplus

    capi ta l

    wi th

    a

    far more

    secure

    and

    remunerat ive

    out let

    than

    i t had

    been

    able

    to

    f ind

    s ince

    the

    ou t se t

    o f

    t he

    f i nanc ia l

    expans ion

    (14 ) .

    An escalat ion in the inters tate power st ruggle thus played

    as cr i t ica l

    a ro le

    in

    sustain ing

    the current

    f inanc ia l

    expansion

    as

    i t had

    in

    the

    past .

    To be

    sure,

    in

    th is

    as in

    other

    respects

    the dynamic

    of

    the

    present

    f inanc ia l

    expansion

    diverges

    s ign i i i can t l y

    f rom

    pas t

    exper ience,

    as we

    sha l l

    see.

    B u t be fo re

    we turn

    to these di f ferences/

    we

    must

    deal

    wi th

    two

    more

    analogies

    that bear

    di rect ly

    on our

    at tempt

    to

    understand

    the

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    main thrust

    of

    the

    present

    rest ructur ing

    of

    wor ld capi ta l ism.

    Both analogies re late to the

    fact that

    a l l

    past

    f inanc ia l

    expans ions

    have not

    j us t

    been

    the

    "c los ing

    season" o f

    a ma jo r

    material

    expansion

    of

    the capital ist

    worrd-econony'

    rhe

    in tens i f icat ion of

    intercapi ta l is t compet i t ion

    that under lay

    the

    f inanc ia l expansions brought

    about a lso epochal

    changes

    in

    the

    spat ia l conf igurat ion and in the organizat ional s t ructure of

    processes

    of capi ta l

    accumulat ion on

    a wor ld

    scale--changes

    which

    prepared

    the

    ground

    for , and in

    due

    course

    t rans lated

    into, a new

    phase

    of expansion

    of wor ld

    t rade and

    product ion.

    Epochal

    changes of

    this kind

    have always

    taken long

    periods

    of

    t ime

    to

    complete--as

    a ru le/ more

    than hal f a century

    f rom the beginning

    of

    the f inanc ia l expansions.

    In i t ia l ly ,

    the

    prev ious ly

    dominant

    center

    always had the

    means to turn to its

    advantage the

    in tens i f i ca t ion o f

    in tercap i ta l i s t compet i t ion .

    As Hal ford

    MacK inder

    pu t

    i t i n 1899 / comment i ng on

    Br i ta in ' s

    re la t i ve

    dec l i ne

    in i ndus t r i a l

    compet i t i veness ,

    "we ' I the

    Br i t i sh ]

    are

    essent ia l ly

    the

    people

    wi th

    capi ta l ,

    and those who have capi ta l

    a lways share

    in the act iv i ty of bra ins

    and muscles of

    other

    coun t r i es "

    (15 ) .

    Over

    t ime, however, even

    " the

    greatest

    ownership of

    capi ta l "

    did

    not

    help

    the

    previously

    dominant

    centers

    in

    meeting

    the costs

    and in compensat ing

    for the d isrupt ions

    of

    the escalat ing

    compet i t ive

    st ruggle,

    the benef i ts of

    which accrued

    dispropor t ionately

    to newly

    emerging

    centers .

    Thus,

    Br i ta in 's

    heavy borrowing

    from

    the

    United

    States during

    the

    First World

    War

    init iated

    that

    change

    of

    guard

    between

    the two countries

    at the

    commanding

    heights of

    the capi ta l is t

    wor ld-economy

    that

    was

    completed

    by

    more borrowing during

    the Second World

    War.

    A l though

    the

    paral le l

    should not be

    pushed

    too

    far , something

    s imi lar seems to have happened in the 1980s. For a l l i ts

    spectacular

    resul ts in ref lat ing

    the US eeonomy

    and in

    bankrupt ing

    the

    USSR,

    the his tor ic

    inf lat ion of

    the US nat ional

    debt

    during

    the

    Second Cold

    War may well

    have sent

    the

    United

    States down

    a

    path

    of dec l ine

    analogrous

    to Br i ta in 's .

    As Kevin

    Phi l l i ps notes ,

    "Former ly

    t he wor ld ' s

    l ead ing

    cred i to r ,

    t he

    Uni ted States

    had

    borrowed

    enough money overseas--shades

    of

    191-4-

    45 B r i t a i n - - t o become

    the wor ld ' s l ead ing

    deb to r '

    ( 16 ) .

    Equal ly

    important , the

    dec l ine of US

    f inanc ia l

    supremacy has

    been accompanied by

    the spectacular r ise of the East

    As ian

    reg ion , no t

    j us t

    as t he ma in

    "con ta ine r

    o f wor ld

    l iqu id i t y " ,

    bu t

    as the

    "workshop

    o f t he wor ld " as we l l .

    B r i ta in ' s v ic tory in

    both Wor1d Wars, far f rom s lowing down, accelerated the ongoing

    shi f t of the

    geopol i t ica l

    center of wor ld-sca1e

    processes

    of

    capital

    accumulation from

    Northwestern

    Europe to North America.

    So, we should not be surpr ised Lf , in ret rospect ,

    the

    US v ic tory

    in the

    Second Cold War turned out to have sealed a s imi lar shi f t

    f rom

    North Amer ica

    to

    East As ia.

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    A f i rs t

    answer

    to these

    quest ions

    is that i t

    is s t i l1 too

    ear ly

    to te1I .

    The

    f i rs t

    twenty- f ive

    years

    of the late-

    nineteenth

    century f inanc ia l

    expansion were

    character ized

    by

    an

    ext reme instabi l i ty

    in work ing-c1ass

    organizat ion

    and

    by

    many

    nofe defeatS

    than

    victories

    for

    the

    workinq

    classes

    of

    most

    countr ies. I t took

    another twenty-f ive

    years

    before

    the

    ideological and

    organizat ional

    contours of

    the

    wor ld labor

    movement beqan to crysta l l ize and be discernib le, and yet another

    twenty-f ive

    before that movement became

    powerful

    enough

    to impose

    some

    of

    i ts

    object ives

    on

    wor ld capi ta l ism

    (22) .

    There is no

    reason,

    of course, for supposing that the

    wor ld

    labor movement of

    the twent ieth- f i rs t

    century wi l l develop

    at the same

    pace

    and

    along

    the same t ra jectory as i ts

    predecessor .

    But

    whether i t

    is

    actual ly

    emerging, what form i t is

    going

    to take, and how

    ef fect ive i t is

    going

    to

    be-

    - these

    are

    issues that cannot be

    decided on the

    basis of

    the tendencies

    of

    the 1ast ,

    or even of

    the nex t

    ,

    0 -20

    years .

    I t is nonetheless not too ear ly to te l l that the condi t ions

    under which the workers

    of

    the world wil l make

    their

    own

    history

    in the twenty- f i rs t century wi l l d i f fer radical ly f rom the

    condi t ions of

    the

    past

    century .

    To

    be

    sure, the

    present

    f inanc ia l

    expansion,

    l ike the

    preceding

    one/ marks

    the

    beginning

    of

    a t rans i t ion of wor ld capi ta l ism

    from

    one

    kind

    of

    spat ia l

    conf igurat ion

    and

    organizat ional

    s t ructure to another .

    But

    each

    t rans i t ion has

    pecul iar i t ies

    of

    i ts

    own,

    which make

    the

    condi t ions of

    work ing-c lass s t ruggles d i f ferent

    f rom what

    they

    had been dur ing the

    preceding

    t rans i t ion.

    A f i rs t d i f ference is

    that the

    changing

    spat ia l

    conf igurat ion of

    the

    capi ta l is t

    wor ld-economy can be expected

    to

    shi f t

    the

    epicenter of

    work ing-c lass s t ruggles

    towards

    per ipheral

    and semiper ipheral count r ies in general and towards East Asia in

    par t icular .

    As

    prev ious ly

    noted, the not ion

    that the wor ld labor

    movement has

    been

    weakened

    by

    a massive re locat ion of industr ia l

    act iv i t ies f rom high to 1ow and middle income count r ies

    is a

    myth. Had such a mass ive re locat ion actual ly

    occurred,

    the

    chances

    are that the world labor movement would have already been

    rev i ta l ized.

    The main reason why i t has not is

    that in the 1980s

    the

    pr imary

    dest inat ion of the f l ight of capi ta l have not been

    low and middle

    income count r ies but ext raterr i tor ia l f inanc ia l

    markets .

    The main except ion to th is

    general

    tendency has

    been

    East

    As ia, where the f inanc ia l

    expansion has been accompanied

    by

    a

    rapid growth of t rade and product ion. Should th is tendency

    cont inue, there

    can be l i t t Ie

    doubt

    that th is region,

    China

    inc luded,

    wi l l w i tness the format ion

    of

    a

    v igorous

    labor

    movement.

    And to the

    extent

    that the material

    expansion

    of

    the

    East

    As ian regional

    economy wi l l

    develop

    suf f ic ient

    momentum to

    t rans late into

    a new mater ia l

    expansion of the

    ent i re wor ld-

    economy, the

    chances

    are that

    this vigorous labor movement

    wil l

    1,2

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    disentangled

    f rom

    the

    inters tate

    power

    st ruggle. There is

    of

    course

    no

    guarantee

    that

    th is

    dj -sentanglement

    wi l l t rans late into

    a

    more

    internat ional is t

    rather

    than

    " t r ibal is t "

    d ispos i t ion

    among

    the

    workers

    of the

    wor ld.

    The

    invent ion

    of new/

    or

    the

    COnSOlidat iOn

    Of OId,

    ninaqined

    communit ies"

    aTons

    ethnic

    or

    re l ig ious l ines

    is no

    doubt an

    easier response to the

    intens j - f icat ion

    of wor ld market

    compet i t i ton

    and

    state

    breakdowns

    than the format ion of c lass sol idar i ty across borders or cul tura l

    d iv ides. As the

    exper ience

    of

    the former

    Yugoslav ia

    i l lus t rates

    t ragical ly ,

    however,

    the

    eas ier response may wel l be a cure much

    worse than

    the

    disease.

    The

    Croat ian

    and

    Serb mi l i t ias

    may wel l

    pref igure

    the

    predominant

    form

    of

    proleta: : ian

    organizat ion

    of

    the twent ieth-

    f i rs t

    century . But there

    is at least

    an

    equal chance

    that the

    predominant

    form wi l l

    be

    pref igured

    by the k ind

    of

    work ing-c Iass

    cooperat ion that is

    being organized

    s lowly and loosely f rom

    below

    across the

    US-Mexican border .

    Whether the now

    weaker

    wind

    of

    internat ional ism

    wi l l eventual ly

    prevai l

    over

    the wind

    of

    " t r ibal ism"

    is a

    quest ion

    ul t imately

    in the

    hands of

    the

    workers

    of the wor ld themselves.

    ENDNOTES

    (1)

    Giovanni Arr ighi ,

    "Marx is t

    Century ,

    Amer ican

    Century :

    The

    Making and Remaking

    of

    the

    World Labor Movement.

    "

    New Left

    Rev iew , L79 , l - 990 ,

    p .55 .

    (2)

    Stephen Hymer,

    "The

    Mul t inat ional

    Corporat ion

    and the Law of

    Uneven Deve lopment .

    "

    In J .N. Bha gwat i ,

    €d . ,

    Economic and Wor ld

    Order

    (New

    York : Macmi l lan ,

    7972)

    p .

    L2L; Mi ra Wi lk ins , The

    Emerqence of Mul t inat ional Enterpr ise (Cambr idge: Cambr idge

    Univers i t y P ress , 1970)

    pp.

    201" -2 ; E than Kaps te in ,

    "We

    Are

    Us :

    The Myth

    of

    t he Mu l t i na t i ona l . "

    The Nat iona l In teres t , Win ter

    1 ,991 , / 92 ,

    p .57 .

    (3 )

    G iovann i A r r i gh i and

    Capi ta l Migrat ion: The

    Un

    Histor ical

    Perspect ive.

    "

    Capi ta l is t Wor ld

    -

    Economv

    Bever ly

    S i lver ,

    "Labor

    Movements and

    i ted

    States and

    Western

    Europe in

    Wor ld

    In

    C .

    B ergqu i s t ,

    ed . , Labor i n t he

    (Bever ly

    H i l l s :

    S age L984) .

    (4 )

    Bever ly

    J . S i l ver ,

    "Wor ld-Sca le

    Pat terns

    of

    Labor -Cap i t a l

    Conf l ic t : Labor

    Unrest , Long

    Waves,

    and

    Cycles of Hegemony.

    Rev iew

    (Fernand

    B raude l

    Cen te r ) , 18 , I ,

    1995 ,

    pp .L77-9 .

    (5 )

    "Wor1d-S ca1e

    Pat terns

    o f Labor -Cap i t a l

    Conf l i c t ,

    "

    p .

    1 -82 .

    (5)

    Giovanni Arr ighi , The Lonq

    Twent ieth

    Centurv . Monev, Power,

    and t he

    Or ig ins

    of Our T imes

    (London :

    V erso , 1 -994) .

    (7 )

    Fernand

    Braude l , The Perspec t ive

    of

    the

    Wor ld

    (New

    Y ork :

    L4

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    (20 )

    A r r i gh i , T h e L o n o T w e n t i e t h C e n t r r r v -

    pp .

    127

    7

    4 , 239-300 .

    (2 I )

    Cf . Gary Hami l ton ,

    "C iv i l i za t ions

    and t he

    Organ i za t i on o f

    Economies . "

    In

    N. Smelser and

    R. Swedberg/

    eds . / The Handbook o f

    Eeonomie

    Socio loqv

    (Pr inceton,

    NJ:

    Pr j -nceton

    univers i tv

    Press,

    : - .994)

    pp . l - 98 -9 ;

    A r r i gh i , The Lonq Twen t i e t h

    Centurv ,

    E p i l ogue .

    (22 ) C f . A r r i gh i ,

    "Marx i s t

    Cen tu ry , A mer i can Cen tu ry , " pp .24 -47 .

    (23 )

    On

    the

    " i n t e rna l i

    and Michae l J .

    P iore ,

    zat ion"

    of

    markets

    see

    Peter

    B. Doer inger

    Internal

    Labor

    Markets

    and

    Manpower

    A n a l v s i s

    ( L e x i n g t o n , M A :

    D . C .

    H e a t h

    a n d C o m p a n f ,

    L 9 7 L )

    a n d

    Arr igh i ,

    The

    Lonq Twen t i e t h

    Century ,

    PP.

    239-42 ,

    287-9