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Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011Singapore Shanghai Houston New York London Düsseldorf Dubai
Aromatics Update
FORO PEMEX Petroquimica 2011
Bangkok
Alex LidbackGlobal Business Director –
Aromatics & Fibers
1 281 752 3288
has
acquired
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
IHS – Who We Are
We are 5,500 people, in 30 countries, speaking 50 languages –
all working each day to:
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and forecasts
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faster and more confident decisions.
Advancing Decisions that Advance the World
IHS Capabilities
3
IHS is the leading information company with comprehensive content, insight and
expert analysis in key areas shaping today’s global business landscape, including:
Advancing Decisions that Advance the World
CMAI: Enhancing Our Country & Industry Forecasting Capability for the Chemical & Petrochemical Industry
4
Our Country & Industry Forecasting capability provides consistently accurate forecasts and analysis of the economic, business and investment climates in over 200 countries and over 170 industries to support strategic planning and decision making.
The combined products and services of the successful acquisitions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Global Insight, SRI Consulting, Harriman Chemsult and Chemical Week and now, CMAI, enhance this capability – giving customers access to solutions to navigate the complex business challenges they face every day, all from a single source: IHS.
Country & Industry Forecasting
CMAI: Enhancing Our Consulting Capability for the Chemical & Petrochemical Industry
Consulting Capabilities
At IHS, we leverage an unmatched combination of information, insight, and expertise to effect the powerful transformation of data into knowledge and value. Our combined capabilities empower you to solve your greatest strategic and operational challenges. It's what distinguishes IHS Consulting in the global marketplace and provides a greater, lasting value to your organization.
The combined products and services of the successful acquisitions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Global Insight, SRI Consulting, Jane’s, Lloyd’s Register Fairplay and now, CMAI, enhance this capability – giving customers access to solutions to navigate the complex business challenges they face every day, all from a single source: IHS.
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Aromatics Topics
Aromatics demand growth
• How much?
• Where?
• Drivers?
Supply Sources
• Refineries
• Olefins units
Trade
• A key component for
most aromatics
Price Forecast
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Benzene
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Where is Benzene Consumed?
Alkylbenzene, 3%
Chlorobenzene, 1%
Cumene, 19%
Cyclohexane, 11%
Ethylbenzene, 52%
Maleic Anhyd., 2%
Nitrobenzene, 8%
Others, 3%
40.7 Million Metric Tons
North America,
20%
South America,
2%West Europe,
20%
Middle East, 6%
Northeast Asia, 40%
Southeast Asia, 5%
ROW, 6%
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
• Olefins production
• Refinery
operations
• Polyester market
• Hydrogen/reformer
operations
• Basically, not
benzene
Reformate/Refinery
36%
Pygas/Olefins40%
HDA5%
Toluene Dispro.
1%
Selective TDP4% Toluene
Transalk.5% PXE Co-prod
5%
Coke Oven4%
What Drives Benzene Supply?
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude
Lighter & Lighter & Lighter…….
For NAM Chemical Industry?U.S. Dollars Per MMBtu Gas as % of Crude BTU Basis
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Light Feeds
Gas Oil Heavy
Naphtha
Propane EthaneLight
NaphthaNormal
Butane
Benzene Production Per Ton of
Ethylene
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America Benzene Production Suffers
Production Index 2005 = 100
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Refor
merNaphtha
Hydrogen, 3%
C1s and C2s, 5%
C3s and C4s, 10%
C5s, 4%
C6+ Raffinate, 15%
BZE, 8%
TOL, 14%
MXY, 18%
C9+ Aromatics, 23%
Reformate
What Is a Reformer?
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
The Effects of MSAT on North
America
• Additional benzene
enters market in
2010
• By 2013, a total of
600 thousand tons
• Helps offset loss in
production
• How does this affect
benzene imports?0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thousand Metric Tons
MSAT – Mobile Source Air Toxins
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America Benzene Production Suffers
Production Index 2005 = 100
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Exports
Net Imports
Million Metric Tons
Benzene Net Trade
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
2010 2015
Trade Balances Supply and Demand
-1,171-1,439
234 87
619
-1,637
351 302
296
1,084
493
-128
273
870
Thousand Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0
67
134
201
268
334
401
468
535
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
US Benzene Monthly Contract
Dollars Per Metric Ton Cents Per Gallon
Benzene: Elevated Prices Continue
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Styrene
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Polystyrene39%
Expandable PS
21%
ABS Resins/SAN
Resins18%
S.B. Latex5%
S.B. Rubber4%
Unsat. PE Resins
4%All Others
9%
N. America15%
S. America3%
Europe22%
CIS & Baltics1%
Africa/Middle East2%
Indian Subc.2%
NE Asia50%
SE Asia5%
26.3 Million Metric Tons
Where is Styrene Consumed?
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Americas Europe Middle East Asia World
Million Metric Tons
Shutdowns Offsetting
Capacity Additions
Styrene Capacity Expansions
Average Demand
Oversupply in 2010
Expansion Slow
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
CPC
Simplified Map Of Consolidation
Americas
Styrenics
BASFNovaBPDow
Styron/Trinseo
StyrolutionInnovene
Ineos IneosNova
Styrolution
Spin Off Spin Off Spin Off
Ineos
Styrenics
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand (1.6/3.7) Total Capacity (2.6/1.8) Operating Rate
WorldOperating RateMillion Metric Tons
Styrene Balances Starting To Improve
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (-3.9/2.1) Domestic Demand (-4.1/0.4)
Total Capacity (-3.9/0.0) Operating Rate
Million Metric Tons Operating Rate
(% AAGR = 05-10/10-15)
North America
Styrene Supply & Demand
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Mexico’s Styrene Net Imports
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Thousand Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Prod Cash Cost EB/SM Styrene Price
U.S. Styrene Prices & EconomicsDollars Per Ton
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Toluene
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
TDI5%
HDA9%
TDP2%
TA16%
STDP/TPX22%
Benzoic Acid1%
Solvents/Others18%
Gasoline27%
Domestic Demand = 28.9 Million Metric Tons
2011 World Toluene Demand by End Use
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Americas Europe
Middle East & Africa Asia
Avg. Demand Growth for (08-13) World Avg. Operating Rate
World Toluene Capacity AdditionsMillion Metric Tons Operating Rate, Percent
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
N. America S. America Europe
CIS & Baltics Africa/Middle East Indian Subc.
NE Asia SE Asia
Regional Toluene Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
Million Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Mixed Xylenes
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Ethylbenzene0.13%
Paraxylene78%
Metaxylene1%
Orthoxylene8%
Solv. & Others13%
Domestic Demand = 43.4 Million Metric Tons
2011 World Mixed Xylenes
Demand by End Use
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
10
25
40
55
70
85
100
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Americas Europe
MDE/AFR Asia
Avg. Demand Growth for (10-15) Operating Rate
Million Metric Tons Operating Rate, Percent
World Mixed Xylenes Capacity
Additions
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Paraxylene (-1.6/3.0) Metaxylene (-3.5/1.5)Orthoxylene (-12.0/1.7) Solv. & Others (-0.5/0.5)Operating Rate
Million Metric Tons Operating Rate
North America Mixed Xylenes
Demand Forecast
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
N. America S. America EuropeCIS & Baltics Africa/Middle East Indian Subc.NE Asia SE Asia
Million Metric Tons
Regional Mixed Xylenes Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012
Toluene (Octane Blend Value) Mixed Xylenes - Contract
Toluene Commercial Grade
Cents Per Gallon
T & X Price Forecast
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Fiber62%
PET Resin (Rigid
Packaging)31%
Oriented PET Film4%
Other3%
Polyethylene Terephthalate End Uses
16,262
33,924
2011 Total Demand = 54.0 Million Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fiber PET Packaging Resin Fiber to PET
Million Metric Tons Fiber to PET Ratio
Fiber Versus PET Packaging Resin
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Squeezed Between Oil And Cotton
POLYESTER
OILOIL OIL OIL
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Cotton Index / Futures Staple Fiber
Dollars Per Metric Tons
The Cotton Factor
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Filament Staple Fiber PET Packaging
World Polyester Demand Growth By ProductThousand Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Supply Effective CapacityDemand Operating RateEffective Operating Rate
Million Metric Tons Percent
Global PTA Supply/Demand
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
PTA – All Regions Increase Self-sufficiency
209 677145 417
-1,187
162
-171 -596 -115 -678
780 19
05 10 15
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
M&G
• Currently only PET– U.S. 325kt (PTA Supply from CEPSA)
– Mexico 550kt (PTA Supply from PetroTemex)
– Brazil 650kt (PTA Supply from PetroTemex)
• Announcement – mid 2014 Location TBA
– U.S. PET 1,000 kt
– PTA 1,200 kt to supply all U.S. assets
– Mexico and Brazil supply to remain
from PetroTemex
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Impacts of M&G(2015 Perspective)
Total PET NAM Impact NAM PX Impact
NAM PET Growth 440 440 0
NAM Non-NAFTA Imports 400 300 175
C&SAM Non Americas Imports 550 250 145
Total 1390 990 320
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
PX Supply
• Net 320 kts demand increase for region
• Region will be at 90% OR by 2013
• Could likely squeeze an additional 100kt out of domestic production
• 220 kts shift in NAM net trade from net export to net import from Middle East production
• Could require more imports if BP/CEPSA/Suncor decide to rationalize.
• Fewer imports if new U.S. PX player from an existing MX player or new entrant.
• Fewer imports if BP starts up PX-1 at Decatur on merchant MX.
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America South America Europe
Africa/Middle East Indian Subcontinent Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Million Metric Tons
Net Exports
Net Imports
World Paraxylene Net Trade
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Mexico’s PX Net Imports
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Thousand Metric Tons
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Direct Fixed Variable Feedstock PX Contract Margin
Dollars Per Metric Ton
Delivered Basis - Direct Plant Fixed Costs Only
United States PX Prices & Margins
Foro PEMEX Petroquimica – Junio 2011
Aromatics – Long Term Outlook• Favoring light olefin feedslates should continue to have a negative
impact on benzene supplies.
• Lower refinery runs in North America and West Europe reduces
aromatics production tightening supply/demand balances.
• Polyester demand continues at a healthy pace driven by
Asia…..mature markets should only see tepid growth.
• Extensive capacity rationalization and industry consolidation have
significantly changed market dynamics.
• The rapid run up in costs and pricing will keep prices elevated. If
prices rise more than currently forecast demand will likely suffer.
• Forecast high crude oil prices will keep prices of aromatics
polymers elevated.
• Asia has been the driver for demand growth and forecasts
suggests this will only continue.