Arno GraffSusan KloseUBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Some Aspects on Air Quality in Germanyrelated to SOER

14th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05 - 06 October 2009

214th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Last Year‘s Messages about Air Quality in Germany

Though Emissions have decreased during the last two decades significantly, exeedances of limit values for PM10, NO2 and target values for O3 still occur.- Summer smog has become history in Germany …

at least for the time being sincerural background: ozone peak values have decreased significantly but …

- urban background: ozone values are increasing from low level to a medium high level.

Air quality trends seem to be hidden behind inter-annual variations during the period 2000 – 2006

314th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

State of Ambient Air Quality in Germany 2008

Exceedances of air quality standards for human health:– PM10

daily mean: 18 out of 417 stations,17 traffic + 1 near industry

– NO2annual mean: 89 of 426 stations,

all traffic – O3– max. 8-h mean: 93 of 274 stations,

85 background + 8 near industry Overall observation:

– one of the best years with respect to exceedances of air quality standards

– air quality is worst in agglomerations with respect to PM10 and NO2, most hot spots are found at monitoring sites near traffic

– Ozone is highest in rural areas and is increasing from low levels to higher low levels

414th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Geographical Characteristics of Air Pollution

514th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Geographical Characteristics of Air Pollution

614th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

State of Ambient Air Quality in Germany 2008

Exceedances of air quality standards:– PM10

daily mean: 18 out of 417 stations,17 traffic + 1 near industry

– NO2annual mean: 89 of 426 stations,

all traffic – O3– max. 8-h mean: 93 of 274 stations,

85 background + 8 near industry Overall observation:

– one of the best years with respect to exceedances of air quality standards– air quality is worst in agglomerations with respect to PM10 and NO2 – most hot

spots found at monitoring sites near trafficOzone is highest in rural areas and is increasing from low levels to higher low levels agglomerations

– seemingly, no clear improvement in the air quality situation since the beginning of this decade

714th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Emission vs. Air Quality normalized to 1995

emissions

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

PM10

NOx

SOx

NMVOC

NH3

NO2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

urban, near traffic

urban background

rural background

PM10

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

urban, near traffic

urban background

rural background

O3

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

urban, near traffic

urban backgroundrural background

814th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

PM10 annual mean, 2001 -2008

914th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

NO2 annual mean, 2001 -2008

1014th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann Kendall significance test

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m

3

urban, near traffic

urban background

rural background10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m

3

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entr

atio

n in

µg/

m3

NO2 PM10

O3

1114th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test for Significance in Trends

Developed originally for quantifying trends of meteorological time series

Suitable for time series – that are expected to have a monotonic trend– without seasonal or cyclic fluctuations

OUTPUT: – levels of significance (error probability)

– mean slope (median of all inter annual changes)

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5 städtisch verkehrsnah

städtischer Hintergrund

ländlicherHintergrund

Irrtumswahrscheinlichkeit Kollektiv

NO2 NO2 NO2PM10 PM10

PM10O3 O3 O3

P>10%P<5%P<1% P<10%P<0,1%

1214th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test for NO2

• 84% with falling trend, thereof 36% with significant trend, 15% rising but uncertain trend

no unique trend

• 82%with falling trend, thereof 60% with significant

mostly decreasing concentrationrural background: all stations have falling or stagnating trend

Evaluation of individual stations 1995 -2007

00 00 0 0000 00 0000 0

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ans

tieg

in µ

g/m

³/a

P<5%

P<1%

P<0,1%

P<10%

P>10%

städtischer Hintergrundstädtisch verkehrsnahurban traffic urban background

52 stations 51 stations

1314th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test for PM10

Evaluation of individual stations 1995 -2007

• 56%: significant falling trend

•significant decrease of concentrations

• 44%: significant falling trend

significant decrease of concentrations

rural background: no clear trend

000000000000000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Ans

tieg

in µ

g/m

³/a

P<5%

P<1%

P<0,1%

P<10%

P>10%

städtischer Hintergrundstädtisch verkehrsnahurban, traffic urban background

41 stations 48 stations

1414th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test for O3

Evaluation of individual stations 1995 -2007

• 57%: significant trend, 70% thereof rising

significant increase of concentrations

• 58%: rising trend, most of them significant

significant increase of concentrations

rural background: no clear trend

00 000 0000000000 00 0

-2

-1

0

1

2

Ans

tieg

in µ

g/m

³/a

P<5%

P<1%

P<0,1%

P<10%

P>10%

städtischer Hintergrundstädtisch verkehrsnahurban traffic urban background

23 stations 57 stations

1514th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

annu

al c

hang

e in

µg/

m³/a

urban, near traffic

urban background

ruralbackground

Level of significance

NO2 NO2 NO2PM10 PM10

PM10O3 O3 O3

P>10%P<5%P<1% P<10%P<0,1%

urban traffic urban background rural background

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

urban, near traffic

urban background

rural background

NO2

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

PM10

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

O3

1614th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

EOR

1714th EIONET Meeting, Warsaw, 05-06 October 2009 UBA-II 4.2 – Air Quality Assessment

Mann-Kendall Test

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

annu

al c

hang

e in

µg/

m³/a

urban, near traffic

urban background

ruralbackground

Level of significance

NO2 NO2 NO2PM10 PM10

PM10O3 O3 O3

P>10%P<5%P<1% P<10%P<0,1%

urban traffic urban background rural background

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

urban, near traffic

urban background

rural background

NO2

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

PM10

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

conc

entra

tion

in µ

g/m3

O3