Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study

Arizona Department of Transportation Public Transportation

Division November 2007

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Study Purpose

Develop regionally based needs and solutions for rural transit service in Arizona:

• Collect and analyze relevant data

• Identify national trends

• Obtain general public, Tribal and key stakeholder input

• Develop projections for future transit demand

• Identify and quantify potential solutions

• Develop final report identifying statewide rural transit needs

Intended to provide an objective, analytical basis for establishing Arizona’s long-term direction of rural transit service provision

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Key QuestionsKey study questions:

• Geographic Diversity: What is rural Arizona, what are its characteristics, and how will it evolve in the near future?

• Elderly and Persons with Disabilities: How will the population of elderly and persons with disabilities change?

• Title VI Requirements: Where are low-income populations located?

• Transit Needs and Gaps: How much rural transit demand is currently being met? Where are the unmet needs?

• Roles and Responsibilities: Which agencies will be responsible for carrying out this plan?

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Methodology

Rural Arizona excludes five shaded urbanized areas:

• Phoenix

• Tucson

• Flagstaff

• Prescott

• Yuma

Source: ADOT and Cambridge Systematics.

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Methodology

Transit Demand Analysis: Five analytical methods for determining rural transit needs and gaps for the state were considered.

Most appropriate methodology for Arizona was the Arkansas Public Transportation Needs Assessment (APTNA) method to define transit service needs for each system and for future systems.

Utilized several data sets to produce future demographic trends. Demographics included elderly population (over 60 years of age), low income population, and employment.

Demographic data used in report is based on a 2005-2015 horizon. The APTNA analysis used a 2007-2016 horizon.

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Geographic DiversitySummary

23.2% of rural Arizona residents are elderly; 9.7% are persons with disabilities; 14.9% are of low-income

The elderly population will grow the most rapidly over time

Population of Rural Arizona, 2005-2015 (total growth from 1.5 to 1.9 million)

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400,000

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1,000,000

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2,000,000

2005 2010 2015

Personswith Disabilities(not in poverty,under age 60)

Persons in Poverty(under age 60)

Elderly(ages 60 & over)

Other

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Elderly and Persons with DisabilitiesSummary

Elderly population in rural Arizona will grow by 51.3% from 349,000 in 2005 to 527,000 in 2015

Growth will be highest in Pinal County (+152.9%)

By 2015, 27.7% of rural Arizona residents will be elderly (up from 23.2% in 2005)

Elderly Rural Population, 2005-2015 (total growth from 349,000 to 527,000)

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2005

2015

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Title VI RequirementsSummary

Low income population in rural Arizona will grow by 27.4% from 223,000 in 2005 to 285,000 in 2015

Growth will be highest in Pinal County (+112.3%)

Low Income Rural Population, 2005-2015 (total growth from 223,000 to 285,000)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Apach

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Cochis

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Cocon

ino Gila

Graha

m

Green

lee

La P

az

Mar

icopa

Moh

ave

Navajo

Pima

Pinal

Santa

Cru

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Yavap

ai

Yuma

2005

2015

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Key Findings

Transit Demand: Transit demand in rural Arizona is projected to grow from 7.8 million passenger trips in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016, an increase of 34%

Unmet Need:

• Estimated year 2007 rural transit ridership: 1.4 million

• Only 18 percent of estimated demand is currently being met

• Only 13 percent of demand will be met in 2016 if no additional services are introduced

Counties with Most Demand (year 2016): Pinal (2.5 million trips), Mohave (1.3 million), Navajo (1.0 million), Cochise (0.9 million)

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Transit Needs and GapsSummary

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2

4

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Ridership (in Millions)

Ridership Without Additional Service

Ridership Demand

Strategy to Meet Need

1.4 mil

7.8 mil

10.5 mil

Ridership demand in rural Arizona will grow from 7.8 million in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016. Existing services only meet 18% of current need (will decline to 13% in 2016 if no changes are made)

Strategy to meet need: ramp up service provision over time to fully meet need in 2016 (ridership from 1.4 mil in 2007 to 10.5 mil in 2016)

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Strategy to Meet Need

No Changes to Existing Service

(No-Build Scenario)

Strategy to Fully Meet Need in 2016 (Build-Out Scenario)

Average Annual Capital Cost, 2007-2016

$4,960,000 $28,580,000

Average Annual Net Operating Cost, 2007-2016

$12,100,000 $54,710,000

Average Annual Total Cost, 2007-2016

$17,060,000 $83,290,000

Comparison of no-build and build-out scenarios:

Source: ADOT, CS, and TranSystems. Costs are given in year 2007 dollars.

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Moving ForwardThe following vision and goals were established on the basis of data analysis results and stake- holder input:

• Vision: Rural transit service provision should be expanded significantly through the year 2016 to address the rapidly growing transportation demands and needs of rural residents statewide

• Goals: #1: Provide services in multiple geographic areas; #2: Address needs of particular market segments; #3: Serve a variety of trip purposes

• Customers: Key customers for new and expanded services should be elderly persons, persons with disabilities, and persons of low income. There are also substantial unmet needs for general public service

Specified agencies should carry out defined roles and responsibilities to ensure further development and improvement of service

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Roles & Responsibilities Summary

Agency Roles and Responsibilities

State

- Claim and obligate Federal funds

- Develop statewide rural transit capital program

- Consider performance-based funding criteria

Councils of Government

- Oversee detailed service planning and cost estimation

- Provide regional funding support

- Collect data and coordinate services within region

Local and Tribal Governments

- Generate support at local level

- Actively monitor and plan for demographic changes

- Streamline and coordinate service provision

Transit Operators- Operate high quality service tailored to rider needs

- Monitor service performance on an ongoing basis

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SummaryConclusions

Rural transit plays an important role in Arizona’s transportation system. Further development and improvement of rural transit services is critical to address needs stemming from rapid population growth

Given only 18% of rural Arizona’s public transportation needs are being met today, it is clear that significant improvement is necessary:

• Future Need: Only 13% of transit service need will be met in 2016 if no service changes are mad

• Strategy to Meet Need: Increase ridership from 1.4 million in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016

• Proposed Build-Out Cost: Average of $83.3 million annually from 2007 to 2016

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SummaryNext Steps

Next steps to ensure further development and improvement of service:

• Add rural public transit service within cities, towns, and Tribal Reservations to assure service needs of the elderly, persons with disabilities, and general public are met

• Connect rural and urban communities, which represents a growing Arizona need

• Increase funding at all levels of government to support these services, with cooperation from private & non-profit sectors

• Establish clearly defined roles and responsibilities between the State, councils of governments, local governments, Tribal Governments, and transit operators

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Thank you!

http://www.azdot.gov/PTD

Matt Carpenter Arizona Department of Transportation

(602) 712-6790 mcarpenter@azdot.gov