ARIZONA COUNTIES’ ROADWAY NEEDS STUDY

2008 UPDATE

AACE 2009 January Quarterly Meeting,

January 29, 2009

Rancho De Los Cabelleros, Wickenburg, AZ

Arizona Association of County

Engineers

Total County Roadway Needs 2008Compared to Previous Study Years

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Ro

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s N

ee

ds

(in

mill

ion

a-y

ea

r 2

00

8 d

olla

rs)

1994 1997 2000 2004 2008

Year of AACE Study/Update

Operations

New Bridges

Existing Bridges

Safety

New Roads

Maintenance

Upgrade Existing Roads

$12.85 Billion

How Can One Declare “$12.85 Billion”…As Costs Rise and Fall Daily?

The Easy Answer: Study Methods and Cost Inflator Series are Consistent with Previous Studies

Yes, but… Costs are Inflated to 3rd Quarter 2008 Dollars Cost of $1.00 in 2004 became $1.308 in 3rd Quarter 2008

Users of the Study during 2009-2013 Should Revise the Costs to the (Current) Year as they use the Study Results.

But What about 2009? Gasoline, in one year, $3.09 to $4.11 to $1.68 /gal. Copper, in one year, $ 3.46 to $4.10 to $ 1.84 /lb.

Costs Rise and Fall…Continued

If Costs are coming Down, could adjust the inflator

Are contractor labor costs coming down?

Are Asphalt costs coming down?

Let’s decide--in the Strategy Session--whether to Adjust the Inflator

Revenue and Needs Effects of Decline in Travel

DECLINE IN VEHICLE-MILES TRAVELED ON RURAL HIGHWAYS, UNITED STATES, 2006-NOVEMBER, 2008

Source: USDOT, FHWA, Policy Information, Travel Monitoring

Decline in Vehicle-miles Traveled on Rural Arterial Roads, 2008 vs. 2007

Area

November October

Vehicle-Miles (Millions)

PercentChange

Vehicle-Miles (Millions)

PercentChange

2008(Preliminary)

2007 2008 (Revised)

2007

Arizona 940 1,029 -8.6 1,018 1,110 -8.3

WesternUnited States*

9,988 10,617 -5.9 10,730 11,336 -5.3

United States 49,721 52,524 -5.3 53,660 56,210 -4.5

Source: USDOT, FHWA, Policy Information, Travel Monitoring *Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

Revenue Effects of Decline in Travel… HURF and VLT Funds

Year

September 2008 January 2009 September 2008 January 2009

Net HURF Counties3

Revised Net HURF4,

Counties VLT, CountiesRevised

VLT, Counties

2009 $247.1 $232.3 $53.0 $48.72010 $271.8 $243.9 $56.9 $50.62011 $284.7 $252.5 $62.0 $52.82012 $299.0 $265.3 $67.4 $57.4

2013 $314.5 $279.0 $73.5 $62.6

2014 $329.8 $292.6 $79.6 $67.8

2015 $346.6 $307.4 $86.1 $73.4

2016 $364.0 $322.9 $93.4 $79.6

2017 $380.6 $337.7 $100.3 $85.5

2018 $398.8 $353.8 $108.4 $92.4

Total $3,236.9 $2,887.3 $780.7 $670.6

HURF AND VLT REVENUE PROJECTIONS ($MILLIONS)

Source: September projections, adopted by AZ State Transportation Board; January, by consultant to AACE study

Needs Effects of Decline in Travel… Needs Effects of Less Growth in Travel… If Travel is Down by 10% for a Few Years, Can the Period For

Repaving Stretch (from 7..from 20…from 40…to longer multiple-year intervals ?)

If it is decided to reduce Population Projections, the Model would Indicate fewer Capacity Failures

Should the Population increases for 2009-2013 be adjusted?

How Did the Model Calculate the “$12.85 Billion”…

Asked the question previously, as a jumping-off point to discuss the current economic conditions

Do we adjust Inflator for Needs? Do we adjust Population Projections? Do we adjust Maintenance Periods?

Now asked the question again to transition to discussion of Progress Methods Findings in the Data Counties Supplied

Scope and Study Progress Kickoff Meeting on September 25Kickoff Meeting on September 25thth

Requested County Data on Cost Factors Requested County 2008 Roadway Inventory Data Developed Revised Cost Factors and Economic Inflators TAC Meeting on October 30TAC Meeting on October 30thth; Focus upon Cost Factors and Planning Guidelines

Received Inventories from many counties; received Bridge Data from ADOTReceived Inventories from many counties; received Bridge Data from ADOT

Ran the AACE Model with 2004 County Data and Revised Cost FactorsRan the AACE Model with 2004 County Data and Revised Cost Factors

County Engineers’ Meeting, December 11th; Interim results by countyCounty Engineers’ Meeting, December 11th; Interim results by county

Continued to receive and update county dataContinued to receive and update county data

Remainder of Study applied Revised Cost Factors to 2008 Roadway Remainder of Study applied Revised Cost Factors to 2008 Roadway InventoriesInventories

Draft Report Provided to MCDOT Draft Report Provided to MCDOT

County Needs Study Report at AACE January 2009 Meeting County Needs Study Report at AACE January 2009 Meeting (Wickenburg): Draft Report and Presentation Slides Distributed(Wickenburg): Draft Report and Presentation Slides Distributed

Final Written Report, March 2009 Final Written Report, March 2009

Procedure: Same as in 2004

Arizona Counties

Revised CostFactors

CalculateMaintenance

Costs

Review byAACE Committee

RevisedCost Factorsand Planning

Guidelines

CalculateOperating

Costs

Select EligibleProjects

ADOT Bridge

Inspection ReportsRoad

Inventories

MaintenanceCost Factors

from 2004 Study

RoadwayCost Factors and

Planning Guidelinesfrom 2004 Study

CountyPlans/CIPs

Road Mileageby Type

Review byAACE Committee

MaintenanceNeeds

CalculateSafetyNeeds

Total Needs

Existing BridgesNeeds

MaintenanceNeeds

Operating CostNeeds

UpgradingExisting Roads

NeedsSafety Needs

New Bridges on

Existing Roads Needs

New RoadNeeds

Analysis ofDeficienciesProgram

Comparison of Urban vs. Rural Miles

CountyCounty

2004 2004 Urban Urban MilesMiles

2004 2004 Rural MilesRural Miles

2004 2004 TotalsTotals

2008 2008 Urban Urban MilesMiles

2008 Rural 2008 Rural MilesMiles

2008 2008 TotalsTotals

Apache 0 1,689 1,698 0 1,694 1,694

Coconino 36 1,097 1,133 339 691 1,030

Graham 21 748 769 18 714 731

Maricopa 1,229 1,400 2,629 1,531 907 2,438

Pima 252 613 864 1,379 838 2,217

Pinal 1,340 945 2,285 1,354 863 2,217

9,370 10,330

Breakout of Roadways by Functional Classification 2004

Breakout of Roadway by Functional Classification 2008

2009-2018 Needed Expenditures by County

County MaintenanceExistingBridges

New Bridges

on Existing

Roads

UpgradeExistingRoads

NewRoads Safety Operating Total

Apache $213,861 $1,576 $0 $106,904 $0 $34,373 $21,386 $378,099

Cochise $125,839 $7,102 $2,615 $247,190 $1,306 $39,663 $12,584 $436,298

Coconino $154,750 $64 $0 $408,736 $25,028 $60,405 $15,475 $664,459

Gila $58,872 $530 $5,151 $102,685 $71,428 $24,455 $5,887 $269,008

Graham $43,871 $6,435 $11,853 $69,723 $12,335 $14,861 $4,387 $163,466

Greenlee $15,650 $2,555 $0 $7,062 $0 $2,683 $1,565 $29,516

La Paz $66,902 $1,706 $0 $72,271 $0 $14,757 $6,690 $162,327

Maricopa $465,261 $128,011 $152,617 $1,783,362 $200,718 $277,650 $46,526 $3,054,145

Mohave $362,595 $1,353 $0 $1,608,531 $6,661 $201,540 $36,259 $2,216,939

Navajo $107,721 $11,853 $0 $159,377 $49,462 $33,918 $10,772 $373,103

Pima $367,782 $28,351 $44,076 $1,409,641 $317,452 $220,408 $36,778 $2,424,489

Pinal $244,950 $20,026 $0 $719,809 $27,942 $103,722 $24,495 $1,140,943

SantaCruz $54,432 $6,484 $0 $55,578 $25,847 $14,778 $5,443 $162,562

Yavapai $180,730 $38,029 $0 $428,156 $1,894 $66,688 $18,073 $733,571

Yuma $143,203 $1,934 $0 $399,481 $28,242 $58,718 $14,320 $645,898

TOTAL $2,606,419 $256,009 $216,311 $7,578,507 $768,315 $1,168,620 $260,642 $12,854,824

Nearly Finished, but Will Ask Help Refining…

New Roads and Bridges

Bridge Repairs /Replacements

Other Items You Discover in Your Review