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Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution

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Lessons for Weather Forecasting….End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users

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Pollution Levels are determined by• emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic,

including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction)

• transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL)

• transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates)

• removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)

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Focus in CTM-modelling vs NWP

Parameter  CTM  NWP

Wind speed Stagnant conditions High wind speeds

Wind direction Essential for S-R-relationships

Not so important

Precipitation Length of dry periods; low intensity rain

Heavy rain

Temperature High temperatures – fast reactions and large biogenic emissions

High and low temperatures, freezing

Clouds Type, location, lifetime Cloud cover

Convection BL ventilation Precipitation

τBL,res , HmixImportant Not so important

Specific humidity Important for [OH] Not so important

Ground surface Important for q, deposition, biogenic emissions

Important for fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture

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Medium range weather forecasting – what is the right time length for air quality forecasts?

• Acidification of soils and waters: ecosystems, seasons to multiannual

• Terrestrial eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual

• Marine eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual• Ground level ozone - human health: hours and days• Ground level ozone - forests and crops: growing season• Particles - human health: hours to long term• Health and ecotoxic effects - heavy metals: long term• Health and ecotoxic effects – POPs: long term• Regional climate change: years• Regional UV change: years + day-to-day variabilityAir quality problems can in principle be abated (atmospheric

sustainability)The traditional NWP forecast focus (≤10d) not so relevant

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Observational NeedsChemical Meteorological

Modeling Needs Weather predictionChemical weather and air quality prediction

Air Quality & Related ProductsImproved ForecastsGuidelinesPilot Projects

UsersHealth Agriculture EnvironmentalPublicEmergency Response

Capacity BuildingWorkshopsTraining

Assimilation

Dissemination

Coordination

Education

Demonstration

GURME Tasks For The Strategic Planning Period 2008-2015