AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01

Areas prone to agriculture intensification driven by the agro-fuel demand are assumed to be:

• with a minimum of 20% of agriculture potential (~UAA) mountains, urban areas, large forests… are excluded.

• with a higher potential for conversion when the 2 agriculture types are balanced (very intensive areas will not intensify any more, very extensive areas result probably from relief and climate conditions which will restrict intensification)

For each grid cell of 1km², the formula retained is therefore:

Conversion Potential = Potential (A-B)* Potential (A+B), when Potential (A+B) > 20. Value normalised to 0 to 100

B A

Corilis is the computation in a regular grid of CLC values in and in the neighbourhood of each cell (in the application: radius of 5km. Ref.: EEA 2006, Land accounts for Europe 1990-2000

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensification, 1st test maps:

Areas prone to intensification (in GREY) AND fallow land set aside mapped from LEAC flow lcf41 (in GREEN).

Fallow land/set aside at risk of re-intensification are in RED.

(RED = GREY+GREEN)

At this stage, this is a distribution map, not yet a statistical quantification

Several What if? applications have been derived from the methodology (report forthcoming…).

AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01

AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01

AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01

AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01

AOU/JLW/MW

What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification (What if? Agro-fuel scenario)

Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensificationVersion 0.01