ARE THERE NATURAL LIMITS TO HOW WELL ARE THERE NATURAL LIMITS TO HOW WELL COMPLEX SYSTEMS CAN BE ADDRESSED?COMPLEX SYSTEMS CAN BE ADDRESSED?

AN ENQUIRY INTO THE NATURE OF THE HUMAN AN ENQUIRY INTO THE NATURE OF THE HUMAN PROBLEM SOLVING SYSTEM - AND HOW IT PROBLEM SOLVING SYSTEM - AND HOW IT

FUNCTIONSFUNCTIONS

Henry C. Alberts Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of Management and Technology

University of Maryland, University College, College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #1

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #2

TODAY’S “PROBLEM SOLVING” SYSTEM/ PROCESS

A “SYSTEM” FOR “SOLVING” PERCEIVED COMPLEX ISSUES HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS. AS I HAVE USED IT OVER THE THE LAST 53 YEARS, IT’S STEPS APPEAR TO BE:

1. PERCEPTION - A “problem” is perceived to exist when politically significant numbers of individuals enunciate it

2. STUDY - A group is formed to gain understanding of the problem and alternative means to ameliorate or ”solve” it

3. SOLUTON – One or more “solutions” are developed and proposed for institutionalization, through legislation, or new or amended regulations within the existing body of law.

4. NEW PERCEPTION - After some period of time, the “solution” shows need for amendment

5. NEW STUDY - reasons are sought for observed imperfect performance of the new institutionalized system.

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #3

TODAY’S “PROBLEM SOLVING” SYSTEM/ PROCESS (Continued)

6. RESTUDY - Again, a group is generally formed to study what happened to prevent performance of the institutionalized “solution” from meeting expected levels.

7. NEW SOLUTIONS - New changes are suggested and presented for implementation

8. REINSTITUTIONALIZATION - The new suggested changes are suitably shaped to permit their institutionalization

9. CHANGES INSTALLED - The changes are institutionalized

10. MONITORING - The newly institutionalized system is monitored to confirm that changes enacted have had the desired effect

11. NEW DIFFICULTIES - Again, shortcomings are uncovered, and the cycle repeats.

ANOTHER VIEW OF THE PROBLEM SOLVING PROCESS/SYSTEM

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #4

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

STEP 4

STEP 5

STEP 6

STEP 7

STEP 8

STEP 9

STEP 11

SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH THE ASSUMPTIONS IMPLICIT IN THE SYSTEM MODEL

USUALLY, THE “PROBLEM” IS OF CONSIDERABLE COMPLEXITY AND HAS LARGE NUMBERS OF INTERACTING FACTORS

1. THE “PROBLEM” IS ASSUMED TO REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME

2. THERE IS LITTLE CONSIDERATION OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF “LEARNING” ON THE PROBLEM STRUCTURE

3. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF INSTITUTIONALIZING A “SOLUTION” ARE POORLY UNDERSTOOD BECAUSE INTERACTIONS AMONG FACTORS ARE NOT CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD

4. THE EFFECTS OF INSTITUTIONALIZING THE “SOLUTION” ON OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE CULTURAL STRUCTURE IS NOT THOROUGHLY STUDIED

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #5

SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH THE ASSUMPTIONS IMPLICIT IN THE SYSTEM MODEL (Continued)

IN SHORT:

• CHANGE TO PROBLEM STRUCTURE, OR IN THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN WHICH THE “PROBLEM” HAD BEEN EMBEDDED HAVE NOT BEEN FACTORED INTO A DYNAMIC REPRESENTATION OF THE SITUATION

• THE MEANS OF MONITORING THE MODIFIED SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ARE NOT CLOSELY EXAMINED

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #6

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #7

COMPLEXITY AND BREADTH OF ENQUIRY

THE NUMBER OF POTENTIAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE FACTORS CONSIDERED BECOMES MUCH GREATER THE MORE COMPLEX THE SITUATION BECOMES

POTENTIAL INTERACTIVE PATHWAYS

0

50

100

1501 4 7

10 13 16NUMBER OF ELEMENTS

NUM

BER

OF

PATH

WAY

S NO ELEMENTS

PATHS

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #8

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #9

PRESENTING COMPLEXITY AS PICTURES

C. S. PIERCE BELIEVED THE HUMAN THOUGHT PROCESS TOOK PLACE USING BRAIN CREATED PICTURES (PATTERNS).

WARFIELDS INTERACTIVE MANAGEMENT PROCESS HELPS HUMANS UNDERSTAND POTENTIAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG LARGE NUMBERS OF FACTORS BY GENERATING RELATIONAL MODELS – PATTERNS – BEFORE BEGINNING TO HYPOTHESIZE POTENTIAL CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS.

ISSS 8/2002 SLIDE #10

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #11

A PICTURE OF COMPLEXITY

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA TO OBSERVED CHANGE

THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA – MOVING OBJECTS HAVE MINIMUM TURNING RADII IS A FUNCTION OF THEIR PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES

IN THE NATURAL WORLD, CHANGE MAY OCCUR:

AS A RAPIDLY OBSERVABLE EFFECT OF A CLEAR CAUSE: AN OCEAN FLOOR EARTHQUAKE DISTURBS THE SEA BOTTOM CREATING A TSUNAMI.

SLOWLY OVER TIME: ACTION OF TIDES ON BEACHS; WEATHER EFFECTS ON MOUNTAINS; KRAKATOA’S 545 A.D. EXPLOSION CREATING A GLOBAL DUST CLOUD WHICH OVER IN SEVERAL CENTURIES TRIGGERED A SERIES OF WORLD CHANGING EVENTS (DAVID KEYS – CATASTROPHE) ISSS 8/2002 Slide #12

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA TO OBSERVED CHANGE (Continued)

RAPID INFERENCE OF CAUSE/EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS (C/E) DEPENDS BOTH ON ELAPSED TIME BETWEEN THE CAUSE AND THE EFFECT, AND WHETHER CHANGE IS OBSERVED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY.

C/E RELATIONSHIPS ARE MOST EASILY SEEN BY DIRECT OBSERVATION OF IDENTIFIABLE EVENTS AND OF STUTUS QUO CHANGE OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER :

C/E RELATIONSHIPS ARE HARDER TO ESTABLISH WHEN A LONG TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN CAUSES AND EFFECTS, AND WHEN CHANGE IS MEASURED INDIRECTLY: ECONOMY MODEL ACCURACY SEEN ONLY AFTER SUFFICIENT INDIVIDUAL CHOICES AGGREGATE TO CREATE MEASURABLE EFFECT ISSS 8/2002 Slide #13

HUMAN THINKING PROCESS MAY ALSO SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF INERTIA”.

GAINING DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF COMPLEX ISSUES APPEARS TO TAKE CONSIDERABLE TIME. SHIFTING FOCUS FROM ONE COMPLEX ISSUE TO ANOTHER, TAKES ADDITIONAL TIME.

THERE ALSO SEEM TO BE INHERENT LIMITS TO HOW MANY ISSUES CAN BE CONSIDERED AT ONE TIME – WARFIELD’S “THE MAGIC NUMBER THREE PLUS OR MINUS ZERO” AND GERMAN RESEARCH ON HOW MANY UNRELATED SHAPES CAN BE RETAINED OVER VARIOUS TIME PERIODS.

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #14

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA TO HUMAN THOUGHT PROCESSES

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA TO HUMAN THOUGHT PROCESSES (Continued)

IT MAY BE THAT:

INDIVIDUALS’ ESTABLISHED SYNAPSE PATTERNS (RETEAE) DETERMINE THEIR MENTAL MOMENTS OF INERTIA.

CONCEPTS – IDEAS - THOUGHT PROCESSES THAT CANNOT EASILY BE ADDED ON (CHUNKED INTO) THE INDIVIDUAL’S EXISTING SYNAPTIC RETA ARE RESISTED – PERHAPS GIVING RISE TO THE OFTEN STATED DIFFICULTY IN AFFECTING CHANGE TO STAUS QUO

THE LEVEL OF UNDERSTANDING OF COMPLEX ISSUES MAY BE BOUNDED FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL BECAUSE OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL MENTAL MOMENTS OF INTERIA!

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #15

GIVEN OUR THINKING PROCESS, AND THE WAY IN WHICH PROBLEM COMPLEXITY MAY AGGREGATE THE NUMBERS OF ELEMENTS NECESSARY TO INCLUDE IN A COMPLETE “PICTURE” OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FACTORS, GAINING TRUE UNDERSTANDING OF ISSUES MAY TAKE CONSIDERABLE TIME

DURING THAT TIME, THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN WHICH THE COMPLEXITY EXISTS IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE CHANGES THAT CAN AFFECT RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FACTORS AND THE WAY IN WHICH THE COMPLEXITY IS ITSELF STRUCTURED

APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF INERTIA TO HUMAN THOUGHT PROCESSES (Concluded)

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #16

DEVELOPING AMELIORATING ACTIONS FOR PERCIEVED COMPLEXITY DIFFICULTIES

FINDING MEANS TO IMPROVE PERCEPTIONS OF FUNCTIONAL EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY COMES AFTER GAINING UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUES WEB

MEASURES OF ANTICIPATED EFFECTIVENESS NEED POSTULATION FOR ALL ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS DEVELOPED AND DISCUSSED

PLANNING FOR INSTITUTIONALIZING THE MOST USEFUL ALTERNATIVES, AND COSTS INVOLVED IN PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION CAN BE DEVELOPED WITHIN DETAILED PLANNING.

FINALLY IMPLEMENTING INSTRUCTIONS ARE DEVELOPED AND PUT INTO PLACE.

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #17

THE EXAMPLES OF COMPLEXITY PRESENTED IN MY PAPER

THE PAPER DISCUSSES 8 EXAMPLES OF WORK PERFORMED TO HELP AMELIORATE PERCEIVED PROBLEMS:

1. BUILDING A SHOCK TUBE TO LEARN ABOUT SUPERSONIC AERODYNAMIC EFFECTS

2. DEVELOPING A COMPUTERIZED WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM

3. DEVELOPING GUIDED MISSILES AND SATELLITE VEHICLES

4. STUDYING COMBAT TACTICS FOR SMALL UNITS

5. STUDYING CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH LEARNING TAKES PLACE ISSS 8/2002 Slide #18

THE EXAMPLES OF COMPLEXITY PRESENTED IN MY PAPER (Continued)

6. HELPING INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS TO ADJUST INTERNAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES TO CHANGING CONDITIONS OF DOING BUSINESS IN EXPANDED MARKETS

7. REVIEWING THE UTILITIES OF 10 ECONOMIC MODELS OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

8. REVIEWING THE U.S. DEFENSE ACQUISITION PROCESS, DEFINING PROBLEM AREAS, SUGGESTING MECHANISMS TO AMELIORATE THOSE PROBLEMS, WRITING DRAFT LEGISLATION, DEVELOPING A MECHANISM TO INSTITUTIONALIZE THE REDESIGNED SYSTEM,AND ASSESSING THE PROBABLE SUCCESS OF THE EFFORT

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #19

TIME TO COMPLETE WORK FOR EACH OF THE 8 PROGRAMS

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE TIME REQUIRED TO COMPLETE WORK ON EACH OF THE PROGRAMS :

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #20

PROGRAM TIME

SHOCK TUBE PROGRAM 36 MONTHS

WEATHER FORECASTING MODEL 60 MONTHS

GUIDED MISSILES/SATELLITES 120 MONTHS

COMBAT TASK STUDIES UNFINISHED

CONDITIONS OF LEARNING UNFINISHED

SWEDISH INDUSTRIAL CHANGE 36 MONTHS

EVALUATE U.S. ECONOMIC MODELS 12 MONTHS

DEFENSE ACQUISITION CHANGE 78 MONTHS

Time to Complete Project

0

50

100

150

1 2 3 4 5 6

Program Number

Tm

e in

Mo

nth

s

Program

Time in Months

TIME TO COMPLETE WORK FOR EACH OF THE 8 PROGRAMS

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #21

TIME TO COMPLETE A CYCLE OF THE PROCESS FOR AMELIORATING DIFFICULTIES

DEPENDING ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE ISSUES, THE ELAPSED TIMES BETWEEN STEPS IN ONE PROCESS CYCLE MAY BE WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES SHOWN IN THE TABLE BELOW :

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #22

DEVELOP UNDERSTANDING 1 - 12 MOS

DEVELOP ACTIONS 3 – 12 MOS

INSTITUTIONALIZATION PLANNING 3 – 12 MOS

OBSERVE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES 6 – 12 MOS

THE TOTAL ELAPSED TIME TO COMPLETE ONE CYCLE ITERATION MAY BE BETWEEN 13 AND 48 MONTHS :

EXPECTATIONS FOR CHANGE TO ELEMENTS AFFECTING THE ISSUE

GIVEN:

THE TIME BOUNDS FOR THE PROCESS OF INSTITUTIONALIZING CHANGE

THAT THE MORE ELEMENTS THERE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX ISSUE THE MORE LIKELY THERE IS TO BE CHANGE TO THEM WHICH AFFECTS THE “GESTALT”

THAT AFFECTING REAL INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IS ITSELF A COMPLEX PROCESS

MIGHT THERE NOT BE LIMITS TO HOW COMPLEX THE ISSUES CAN BE IF SUBSTANTIVE IMPROVEMENT IS TO BE ACHIEVED?

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #23

CONCLUSIONS

MY EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN THAT THE MORE COMPLEX THE ISSUES SOUGHT TO BE AMELIORATED ARE, THE MORE ELEMENTS ARE INTERWOVEN WITHIN THEIR FABRIC. AND THUS, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT CHANGES AFFECTING IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF AN ISSUE WILL OCCUR DURING THE PROCESS OF FINDING ACTION SETS THAT MIGHT HELP.

BECAUSE LIMITATIONS ARE CREATED BY THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN WHICH WE FUNCTION AND THE BOUNDARIES OF OUR OWN NATURAL SPECIES LIMITS, IT MIGHT BE BETTER TO FOCUS ON THOSE ELEMENTS MOST AFFECTING THE BROAD ISSUE RATHER THAN TO BROADEN THE SCOPE OF FOCUS. HOWEVER WE SHOULD NOT GIVE UP THE GESTALT CONCEPT IN THAT EFFORT

ISSS 8/2002 Slide #24