ARC Final Climate Report Dec2013

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  • 8/13/2019 ARC Final Climate Report Dec2013

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    CLIM TE CH NGEPROJECTIONS NDINDIC TORS FORDEL W RE"#$%#&'() *#+%,)

    -'$% .(() /$,()& #(0 1,0'2# 3)42#

    "#$%& '()(*+,- . /01)234516

    7(,(89(+ :;

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(+ 4-( ,08516 ,(142+?@ 6309*3 ,358*4( 5) (AB(,4(C 40 ,-*16( 51 +()B01)( 40 -28*1 (85))501) 0D

    ,*+901 C50A5C( *1C 04-(+ -(*4E4+*BB516 6*)()F #-5) +(B0+4 C0,28(14) -0G 4-()( 6309*3 ,-*16() *+(

    (AB(,4(C 40 *DD(,4 4-( ,358*4( 0D 7(3*G*+(@ 51,32C516 *>(+*6( *112*3 *1C )(*)01*3 4(8B(+*42+( *1C

    4(8B(+*42+( (A4+(8()H )(*)01*3 B+(,5B54*4501@ C+026-4@ *1C -(*>? B+(,5B54*4501H *1C 51C5,*40+) 4-*4

    ,08951( 4(8B(+*42+(@ B+(,5B54*4501@ *1CI0+ -285C54?F

    J242+( B+0K(,4501) G(+( C(>(30B(C D0+ 4G0 >(+? C5DD(+(14 4?B() 0D ),(1*+50)@ 40 )B*1 * +*16( 0D

    B0))593( ,-*16() 0>(+ 4-( ,08516 ,(142+?F #-( !"#$% '($)*%+"'L,0++()B01C516 40 4-(

    M14(+60>(+18(14*3 N*1(3 01 /358*4( /-*16( &'O&(+*6( *1C )(*)01*3 B+(,5B54*4501@ *) G(33 *) 4-( 8*61542C( 0D 4-( 80+(

    (A4+(8( 51C5,*40+) 0D 4(8B(+*42+( *1C B+(,5B54*4501F $0)4 0D 4-( B+0K(,4501) C5,2))(C -(+( *+(9*)(C 01 4-( 80+( +(,(14 /$MNR )5823*4501)@ 213()) 4-(+( *+( 58B0+4*14 C5DD(+(1,() 9(4G((1 G-*4

    5) )5823*4(C 9? 4-( 03C(+ /$MN= >(+)2) 4-( 1(G(+ /$MNR 80C(3)F #-( D233 )(4 0D /$MN= *1C /$MNR

    B+0K(,4501) *+( B+0>5C(C 51 4-( OA,(3 "BB(1C5,() G-5,- *,,08B*1? 4-5) +(B0+4F

    7*4* D+08 533(@

    70>(+@ 70>(+ "JP@ Z(0+6(40G1@ Z(0+6(40G1 &2))(A "5+B0+4@ Z+((1G00C@ X(G()@ $5CC3(40G1@

    $53D0+C@ U(G*+V \15>(+)54? J*+8@ &(39?>533(@ ]538516401 N0+4(+@ *1C ]538516401 U(G /*)43(

    /0214? LU//S "5+B0+4F #-( 024B24 D+08 (*,- 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3 )5823*4501 G*)'0*0+'0+(*!!2

    1"#)'(*!$140 (*,- 0D 4-(

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;);( * 65>(1 -56- 4(8B(+*42+( 0+ 9(30G *

    65>(1 ,03C 4(8B(+*42+( 4-+()-03CF P? 85CE,(142+?@ ,-*16() 21C(+ 4-( -56-(+ ),(1*+50 *+( 6+(*4(+

    4-*1 ,-*16() 21C(+ 4-( 30G(+ ),(1*+50F

    #-( 1289(+ 0D >(+? ,03C C*?) L9(30G :;0JS@ G-5,- -5)40+5,*33? 0,,2+ 01 *>(+*6( *9024 :; 458()B(+ ?(*+@ 5) B+0K(,4(C 40 C+0B 40 (+? 80C(3 )5823*4501

    )-0G) B+0K(,4(C 51,+(*)() 51 4-( D+(_2(1,? *1C *80214 0D -(*>? B+(,5B54*4501 (>(14) 4-*4 5) 0D4(1

    6+(*4(+ 21C(+ * -56-(+ *) ,08B*+(C 40 * 30G(+ D242+( ),(1*+50F #-5) 51,+(*)( 5) ,01)5)4(14 0>(+ *

    >(+? 9+0*C +*16( 0D C(D5154501) 0D `-(*>? B+(,5B54*4501@a 51,32C516 *,,2823*4501) +*16516 D+08 ;FR

    40 T 51,-() 0>(+ *1?G-(+( D+08 < C*? 40 : G((V)F

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(14) 4-*4 *+( -5)40+5,*33? +*+(@ 51,32C516 (A4+(8(3? -56- 4(8B(+*42+()

    Lb(14)F

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;

    SECTION 1

    A.B"31C5DE

    &51,( 4-( M1C2)4+5*3 '(>0324501@ *480)B-(+5, 3(>(3) 0D -(*4E4+*BB516 6*)() )2,- *) ,*+901

    C50A5C( L/%:S *1C 8(4-*1( L/YQS -*>( 9((1 +5)516 C2( 40 (85))501) D+08 -28*1 *,45>545()F

    #-( 8*51 )02+,( 0D -(*4E4+*BB516 6*)() 5) 4-( ,0892)4501 0D D0))53 D2(3) )2,- *) ,0*3@ 053@*1C 1*42+*3 6*) L"1C+() (4 *3F@ (+@

    *+45D5,5*33? *CC516 40 4-( *80214) 0D 4-()( 6*)() 51 4-( *480)B-(+( *DD(,4) 4-( (1(+6?

    9*3*1,( 0D 4-( B3*1(4F ") 3(>(3) 51,+(*)(@ 80+( 0D 4-( -(*4 65>(1 0DD 9? 4-( (*+4- 4-*4 G023C

    04-(+G5)( (),*B( 40 )B*,( 5) 4+*BB(C G54-51 4-( (*+4-e) ,358*4( )?)4(8F #-5) (A,()) -(*4

    51,+(*)() 4-( 4(8B(+*42+(@ *1C 4-( -(*4 ,014(14@ 0D 4-( *480)B-(+( *1C 0,(*1F

    Observed and Projected Future ChangeM1 4-( B*)4@ ,358*4( >*+5*4501) G(+( ,*2)(C (145+(3? 9? 1*42+*3 D0+,()F #-()( 51,32C(

    ,-*16() 51 *80214 0D (1(+6? 4-( O*+4- +(,(5>() D+08 4-( )21@ 1*42+*3 ,?,3() 4-*4 (A,-*16(

    -(*4 9(4G((1 4-( 0,(*1 *1C *480)B-(+(@ 0+ 4-( ,003516 (DD(,4) 0D C2)4 ,302C) D+08

    B0G(+D23 >03,*15, (+2B4501)@ *8B35D5(C 9? 1*42+*3 D((C9*,V) G54-51 4-( (*+4-E0,(*1E

    *480)B-(+( )?)4(8F #0C*?@ -0G(>(+@ 4-( ,358*4( 5) 9(516 *34(+(C 9? 904- 1*42+*3 *1C

    -28*1 ,*2)() LY(6(+3 (4 *3F@ :;;dSF

    %>(+ 4-( 3*)4 (+*6( 1(*+ )2+D*,( 4(8B(+*42+( -*)

    51,+(*)(C 9?

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(+*6( "+,45, )(* 5,( *+(* 9? 545() 01 ,358*4(@ *1C 4-( )(1)545>54? 0D

    ,358*4( 40 4-0)( (85))501)F #-5) +(B0+4 C(),+59() B+0K(,4(C ,-*16() 51 7(3*G*+(e) ,358*4(

    21C(+ 4G0 B0))593( ),(1*+50)[ * -56-(+ ),(1*+50 51 G-5,- D0))53 D2(3) ,014512( 40 B+0>5C(

    80)4 0D -28*1V51Ce) (1(+6? 1((C)@ *1C * 30G(+ ),(1*+50 51 G-5,- 6309*3 ,*+901 (85))501)

    B(*V G54-51 * D(G C(,*C()@ 4-(1 9(651 40 C(,351(F

    J242+( B+0K(,4501) *+( 9*)(C 01 )5823*4501) D+08 4G0 6+02B) 0D 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3)[ 4-(

    03C(+ 80C(3) 2)(C 51 4-( U0+4-(*)4 /358*4( M8B*,4) "))())8(14 LJ+28-0DD (4 *3F@ :;;dS@

    4-( &(,01C \F&F U*4501*3 /358*4( "))())8(14 L\&Z/'N@ :;;^S@ *1C 4-( M14(+60>(+18(14*3

    N*1(3 01 /358*4( /-*16( LMN//S #-5+C *1C J02+4- "))())8(14 '(B0+4)H *1C 4-( 1(G(+ )(4

    0D 80C(3) 2)(C 51 4-( 2B,08516 MN// J5D4- "))())8(14 '(B0+4 *1C #-5+C \F&F U*4501*3

    /358*4( "))())8(14F

    Z309*3 80C(3 B+0K(,4501) G(+( 4+*1)3*4(C C0G1 40 4-( 30,*3 ),*3( 2)516 * )4*45)45,*3

    C0G1),*3516 80C(3F #-5) 80C(3 +(3*4() )5823*4(C >*+5*95354? *1C ,-*16() 51 3*+6(E),*3(

    ,358*4( 40 09)(+>(C ,01C54501) *4 *32*93( 40 3016E4(+8 B3*11516 0+ B035,5()F $2,- 0D ,2++(14 51D+*)4+2,42+(

    *1C 04-(+ -28*1 *1C 1*42+*3 )?)4(8) *+( B+(C5,*4(C 01 4-( *))28B4501 0D * +(3*45>(3?

    )4*93( ,358*4(F MD ,358*4( 5) 10 3016(+ )4*93(@ 4-()( )?)4(8) G533 -*>( 40 *C*B4F "C*B4*4501

    ,*1 9( ,0)43?@ 924 B3*11516 *-(*C ,*1 +(C2,( 4-()( ,0)4)F J0+ (A*8B3(@ B+0K(,4(C ,-*16() 51

    -(*4516 0+ ,003516 C(6+((EC*?) ,*1 9( 51,0+B0+*4(C 5140 1(G 9253C516 ,0C() 0+ (1(+6?

    B035,?F &-5D4) 51 4-( 458516 *1C *>*53*95354? 0D )4+(*8D30G ,*1 9( 2)(C 40 +(C5)4+5924( G*4(+

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;( D0+ ,01)(+>*4501 B+06+*8)F N+0K(,4(C ,-*16() 51 6+0G516 )(*)01

    *1C B()4 +*16() ,*1 51D0+8 ,+0B +()(*+,- *1C *6+5,2342+*3 B+*,45,()F

    #-( 51D0+8*4501 6(1(+*4(C 9? 4-5) *1*3?)5)@ *1C )288*+5g(C 51 4-5) +(B0+4@ 5) 514(1C(C 40

    51D0+8 )2,- )42C5() D0+ 4-( )4*4( 0D 7(3*G*+( *1C +(3(>*14 )(,40+) 9? B+0>5C516 )4*4(E0DE

    4-(E*+4 ,358*4( B+0K(,4501) 4-*4 ,*1 9( 51,0+B0+*4(C 5140 D242+( B3*11516F

    This Report#-5) +(B0+4 C0,28(14) 4-( B+0K(,4(C 58B*,4) 0D ,358*4( ,-*16( 01 * +*16( 0D 4(8B(+*42+(E

    *1C B+(,5B54*4501E+(3*4(C 51C5,*40+) D0+ 4-( )4*4( 0D 7(3*G*+(F N+0K(,4(C ,-*16() ,0>(+ *

    +*16( 0D D242+( ),(1*+50) *1C >*+5*93()@ 51,32C516 51D0+8*4501 +(3(>*14 40 *6+5,2342+(@

    (,0)?)4(8) *1C 1*42+*3 +()02+,()@ (1(+6? 2)(@ 51D+*)4+2,42+( *1C 4+*1)B0+4*4501@ B2935,

    -(*34-@ *1C G*4(+ +()02+,()F

    &(,4501 : C(),+59() 4-( C*4*@ ),(1*+50)@ *1C 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3)@ *1C (AB3*51) 4-(

    )4*45)45,*3 C0G1),*3516 80C(3 2)(C 40 6(1(+*4( -56-E+()0324501 B+0K(,4501) D0+ 4-(51C5>5C2*3 G(*4-(+ )4*4501)F M4 *3)0 B+0>5C() 625C*1,( 01 21C(+)4*1C516 *1C 514(+B+(4516

    4-( +*16( 0D 21,(+4*514? 51 D242+( B+0K(,4501)F

    J242+( B+0K(,4501) *+( )288*+5g(C D0+ 4-+(( D242+( 458( B(+50C)@ +(3*45>( 40 * -5)40+5,*3

    9*)(351( 0D (+*6(C *,+0)) *33 0D 4-( 3*4()4

    6(1(+*4501 0D /$MNR ,358*4( 80C(3) D0+ 51C5>5C2*3 ),(1*+50)[ -56-(+ L'/N TFRS *1C 30G(+

    L'/N QFRSF N+0K(,4(C ,-*16() *+( ,01)5)4(14 *,+0)) *33 *32() ,0++()B01C 40 4-( (+*6(F N+0K(,4501) D0+ 4-( 03C(+

    /$MN= 80C(3) *1C &'O& -56-(+ L"

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;.F 6CEGH/F .DE 6G>*CE/

    #-5) )(,4501 C(),+59() 4-( )B(,5D5, C*4*)(4) *1C 8(4-0C) 2)(C 40 *))()) B+0K(,4(C ,-*16()

    51 7(3*G*+( ,358*4( 51 +()B01)( 40 -28*1E51C2,(C 6309*3 ,358*4( ,-*16(F #-()( C*4*)(4)@

    80C(3) *1C 8(4-0C) 51,32C( D242+( ),(1*+50)@ 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3)@ 3016E4(+8 )4*4501

    +(,0+C)@ *1C * )4*45)45,*3 C0G1),*3516 80C(3F #-()( 8(4-0C) +(B+()(14 2BC*4(C >(+)501) 0D

    4-0)( 2)(C 51 4-( :;;d U0+4-(*)4 /358*4( M8B*,4 "))())8(14 LJ+28-0DD (4 *3F@ :;;dS *1C

    4-( &(,01C \F&F U*4501*3 /358*4( "))())8(14@ `Z309*3 /358*4( /-*16( M8B*,4) 51 4-( \154(C

    &4*4()a L\&Z/'N@ :;;^S@ *1C *+( ,01)5)4(14 G54- 4-0)( 2)(C 51 4-( /358*4( &,5(1,( )(,4501

    0D 4-( 2B,08516 #-5+C \F&F U*4501*3 /358*4( "))())8(14 L]*3)- (4 *3F@ :;= $;+'&5#9$ &5+ (+) 51,32C( *480)B-(+5, 3(>(3) 0D 6+((1-02)(

    6*)()@ )03*+ +*C5*4501@ *1C >03,*15, (+2B4501) 4-*4 *+( ,01)5)4(14 G54- 09)(+>(C >*32() D0+

    (*,- ?(*+ 0D 4-( )5823*4501F #-( -5)40+5,*3 D0+,516) 2)(C 9? 4-( 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3 LZ/$S

    )5823*4501) 51 4-5) B+0K(,4 *+( 4-( /02B3(C $0C(3 M14(+,08B*+5)01 N+0K(,4e) `:;4- /(142+?

    /358*4( 51 /02B3(C $0C(3)a 0+ :;/=$ 404*3 D0+,516 ),(1*+50) L$((-3 (4 *3F :;;dH #*?30+ (4

    *3F@ :;5C( 4-( ,30)()4 *BB+0A58*4501 40 *,42*3 ,358*4( D0+,516

    D+08 4-( 9(6511516 0D 4-( -5)40+5,*3 )5823*4501 40 4-( ?(*+ :;;; D0+ 4-( 03C(+ /$MN=

    80C(3)@ *1C 4-( ?(*+ :;;R D0+ 4-( 1(G(+ /$MNR )5823*4501)F ]-(+( 82345B3( :;/=$

    )5823*4501) G(+( *>*53*93(@ 4-( D5+)4 G*) 2)(C -(+( L`+21

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(C >*32()F

    J242+( ),(1*+50) C(B(1C 01 * 8?+5*C 0D D*,40+)@ 51,32C516 -0G -28*1 )0,5(45() *1C(,01085() G533 C(>(30B 0>(+ 4-( ,08516 C(,*C()H G-*4 4(,-103065,*3 *C>*1,() *+(

    (AB(,4(CH G-5,- (1(+6? )02+,() G533 9( 2)(C 51 4-( D242+( 40 6(1(+*4( (3(,4+5,54?@ B0G(+

    4+*1)B0+4*4501@ *1C )(+>( 51C2)4+?H *1C -0G *33 4-()( ,-05,() G533 *DD(,4 D242+( (85))501)

    D+08 -28*1 *,45>545()F

    #0 *CC+()) 4-()( _2()4501)@ 51 :;;; 4-( MN// C(>(30B(C * )(+5() 0D ),(1*+50) C(),+59(C 51

    4-( 12#()$/ 3#2-"% -* 4,)&&)-*& 1(#*$")-&L&'O&H U*V5h(10>5h (4 *3F@ :;;;SF #-()( ),(1*+50)

    C(),+59( 514(+1*33? ,01)5)4(14 B*4-G*?) 0D D242+( )0,5(4*3 C(>(30B8(14 *1C ,0++()B01C516

    (85))501)F #-( ,*+901 (85))501) *1C 6309*3 4(8B(+*42+( ,-*16( 4-*4 +()234 D+08 4-( &'O&

    ),(1*+50) *+( )-0G1 51 I'9=&) JL3(D4SF"4 4-( -56-(+ (1C 0D 4-( +*16(@ 4-( &'O& -56-(+E(85))501) 0+ D0))53 D2(3E514(1)5>( ),(1*+50

    L"( D0+,516 L51 G*44) B(+

    8(4(+ )_2*+(CS 9? (1C 0D ,(142+?[ iTFR ]I8: *1C iQFR ]I8:F '/N ),(1*+50) ,*1 9(

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(+4(C `9*,VG*+C)@a 5140 4-( +*16( 0D (85))501) ,01)5)4(14 G54- * 65>(1 ,01,(14+*4501

    4+*K(,40+?@ 2)516 * ,*+901 ,?,3( 80C(3@ )0 4-(? ,*1 9( C5+(,43? ,08B*+(C G54- &'O&

    (85))501) LI'9=&) J@ ,(14(+SF J02+ '/N ),(1*+50) G(+( C(>(30B(C 40 )B*1 * B3*2)593( +*16(

    0D D242+( /%: ,01,(14+*4501)@ D+08 30G(+ 40 -56-(+F "4 4-( -56-(+ (1C 0D 4-( +*16(@

    *480)B-(+5, /%: 3(>(3) 21C(+ 4-( '/N TFR ),(1*+50 +(*,-() 80+( 4-*1 ^;; B*+4) B(+ 8533501

    9? :(3) 9(30G QR; B*+4) B(+

    8533501 9? :

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(+@ 8*1? 0D 4-( 1(G()4 6(1(+*4501 0D 80C(3) *+( 10G 80+( *,,2+*4(3?

    C(),+59(C *) 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3) LZ/$)S *) 4-(? 51,0+B0+*4( *CC54501*3 *)B(,4) 0D 4-(

    (*+4-e) ,358*4( )?)4(8 9(?01C *480)B-(+5, *1C 0,(*15, C?1*85,)F

    P(,*2)( 0D 4-(5+ ,08B3(A54?@ Z/$) *+( ,01)4*143? 9(516 (1-*1,(C *) ),5(145D5,

    21C(+)4*1C516 0D ,358*4( 58B+0>() *1C *) ,08B24*4501*3 B0G(+ 51,+(*)()F &08( 80C(3)*+( 80+( )2,,())D23 4-*1 04-(+) *4 +(B+0C2,516 09)(+>(C ,358*4( *1C 4+(1C) 0>(+ 4-( B*)4

    ,(142+? L(F6F@ '*1C*33 (4 *3F@ :;;dSF Y0G(>(+@ *33 D242+( )5823*4501) *6+(( 4-*4 904- 6309*3

    *1C +(6501*3 4(8B(+*42+() G533 51,+(*)( 0>(+ 4-( ,08516 ,(142+? 51 +()B01)( 40 51,+(*)516

    (85))501) 0D 6+((1-02)( 6*)() D+08 -28*1 *,45>545() LMN//@ :;(30B 4-(5+ 0G1 B*44(+1 0D 1*42+*3 ,-*045,

    >*+5*95354?F #-5) 8(*1) 4-*4@ *34-026- 4-( ,358*403065,*3 8(*1) 0D -5)40+5,*3 )5823*4501)

    )-023C ,0++()B01C 40 09)(+>*4501) *4 4-( ,01451(14*3 40 6309*3 ),*3(@ 10 4(8B0+*3

    ,0++()B01C(1,( 9(4G((1 80C(3 )5823*4501) *1C 09)(+>*4501) )-023C 9( (AB(,4(C 01 *C*?E40EC*? 0+ (>(1 ?(*+E40E?(*+ 9*)5)F J0+ (A*8B3(@ *34-026- * )4+016 O3 U5k0 (>(14

    0,,2++(C D+08 (+*3 C(,*C()@ -0G(>(+@ 4-( *>(+*6( 1289(+ 0D )5823*4(C O3 U5k0 (>(14)

    )-023C 9( )5853*+ 40 4-0)( 09)(+>(CF &5853*+3?@ *34-026- 4-( ,(14+*3 \154(C &4*4() )2DD(+(C

    4-( (DD(,4) 0D *1 212)2*33? 514(1)( -(*4 G*>( C2+516 )288(+ (1 ,003(+ 4-*1 *>(+*6(F Y0G(>(+@ * )5853*+3?

    514(1)( -(*4 G*>( 5) )5823*4(C 9? 80)4 80C(3) )08( 458( C2+516 4-( =;E?(*+

    ,358*403065,*3 B(+50C ,(14(+(C *+021C

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;

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    !"#$%$&"'( *+,+&" -#./$," 012345 56 178 9:;(1 D(G(+ 0D

    4-()( 80C(3) L^@ 404*3S +(B+()(14(C 2BC*4(C >(+)501) 0D 80C(3) *3+(*C? *>*53*93( 51 4-(

    /$MN= *+,-5>(F #-( /$MNR Z/$ )5823*4501) 2)(C 51 4-5) B+0K(,4 ,01)5)4 0D 024B24) D+08

    4-()( ^ Z/$) 4-*4 -*>( ,01451202) C*53? 8*A5828 *1C 8515828 4(8B(+*42+( *1C

    B+(,5B54*4501 024B24) *>*53*93( D0+ -5)40+5,*3 *1C 4-( '/N TFR *1C QFR D242+( ),(1*+50)F U0

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  • 8/13/2019 ARC Final Climate Report Dec2013

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    4-( *95354? 0D 4-( 6309*3 ,358*4( 80C(3 40 )5823*4( +(6501*3 ,01C54501)F M8B*,4) 01

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    *4 ,2++(14EC*? ,01C54501)F

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    Annual and Seasonal Temperatures

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