ARAB THREAT PERCEPTIONS AND FUTURE US MILITARY

PRESENCE

COL Maher Abed

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

Agenda

• Introduction

• Discussion

• Key Arab Allies and their individual agendas

• Egypt

• Saudi Arabia

• Gulf Cooperative Countries (GCC)

• Yemen

• Jordan

• Future US Presence in the Middle East

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Existing permanent US presence

• Regionally Aligned Forces (RAFs)

• Regional Exercises include Bright Star and Eager Lion

• Intelligence, Counterintelligence and Counterterrorism Support

• Conclusion

• Future relationship and interest

• Future Middle East

• Questions and Answer

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• References

• Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future US Military Presence in the Middle East by W.

Andrew Terrill, October 2015, US Army War College.

• Rise of ISIS, A Threat We can’t Ignore by Jay Sekulow with Jordan Sekulow, Robert W.

Ash, and David French by Simon and Schuster.

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Challenges

• Iran’s desired hegemony over the Gulf Area

• International Terrorism

• Regional Terrorism

• Authoritative Regimes

• Military Defense Budget Cuts

• Rebalance US Forces to Asia

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Future US Presence in the Middle East

• Existing military presence in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar

• RAFs focused on Geographic Combatant Command Regions

• Continued military exercises in the region

• Counterterrorism Effort in Iraq/Syria

• Support to Arab Campaign in Yemen

• Intelligence and counterterrorism Support

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Future Interests

• Safeguarding energy supplies

• Counterterrorism

• Countering the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

• Defense of Israel and Advancement of Arab-Israeli Pease Process.

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Future Relationship

• Developing local military capacity

• Continued commitment (of around 35,000 personnel and 10,000 Army troops)

• Encourage peaceful resolution of conflicts

• Support counterterrorism fighting effort

• Leverage US Technical capacity to assist local allies

• Ensure Israel’s continued military superiority

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• The Arab Spring has turned into the long winter as individual countries in the

Middle East try to deal with conflicting directions and interests. Non-state actors

like ISIS are trying to redraw the regional map and subjugate people by force and

extreme violence. Since this has impact our allies, we are obligated to stay engaged

to preserve our interests and alliances.

ARAB PERCEPTIONS AND US PRESENCE

• Questions?