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Saddams Removal and Arab Spring: we need to learn the right
lessons
By Farooq A. Kirmani
Was Saddams ouster from power in Iraq responsible for Arab
Spring? Recently, on two
different BBC news programmes, Richard Perle and Colleen Graffy
(on Question Time andAndrew Marr Show respectively), were seen
advocating the correlation. The argument, more
explicitly stated by Colleen on AM Show, holds that Arab masses,
after seeing an apparently
invincible brutal dictator, who had held the country in an
iron-grip for decades, being
deposed like a paper tiger, realised that they could as well
repeat the same with others in the
region?
However, by the very basic rules of logic, this proposition is
untenable. If this proposition is
logically deconstructed, it reads: because Americans and its
allies deposed Saddam easily,
therefore, we can also topple other dictators in the region.
But, without any association
between Americans and Arab masses, by any stretch of
imagination, how can it be so? The
fundamental fact of the matter is that Saddam was removed by a
highly organised and very
powerful external force. Therefore, logically, it shall follow,
that the dictators in the region
can only be removed by similar forces, external or internal. In
other words, removal of such
rulers needs an organised (and not un-organised), military (and
not public) and surgically-
planned (and not extempore) intervention. Clearly, Arab Spring
is none of it. So, the
argument holding the regime change in Iraq, per se, as the
fountainhead of Arab Spring is
clearly misleading and fallacious.
However, this is not to say that the war in Iraq has had no
bearing on Arab Spring. Actually,
the war in Iraq that took place after the regime change seems to
have lead to Arab Spring. It
is no secret that the bloody post-regime-change insurgency in
Iraq inflicted highly
unexpected damage on foreign forces: militarily, politically and
morally. At a huge human
cost, the insurgents mounted hell of a resistance to the
occupying forces. The hitherto
invincible military might of West seemed hopelessly helpless in
front of an asymmetrical
force that was nowhere to be seen before the regime change in
the country. In fact, the tide
could be turned only after some local militias switched
sides.
Now, in my opinion, herein lie the seeds of Arab Spring. The
invincible foreign forces, that
toppled the apparently invincible dictator in a matter of days,
were made to retreat, reconsiderand return! If such a feat was
possible, therefore, nothing could be impossible for Arabs.
This
new found confidence, as per my understanding, is the real
fountainhead of the energy that
lead to Arab Spring that went on to depose the despots in
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It was
the same confidence that showed itself in the unprecedented
resistance by Hezbollah against
the military might of Israel in 2006 Lebanon war. It was the
same confidence that showed
itself yet again in unprecedented resistance by Hamas against
Israel in 2008.
Given the fact that the current and future policies of West,
especially those of America, are
going to be predominantly influenced by the lessons from recent
wars, especially the one in
Iraq, it is vitally important that we learn them right.
