Arab Political Demography

Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is

Oil Destroying the Arab world?

Patrick Buckley

Dept. Envr Studies: Geography

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78

Introduction

Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues

Some Questions

Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?

Does it relate to the Muslim World?

As a Linguistic Region

Arab World Linguistically Defined

Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam.

Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

Result

Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region)

As a Historical Region

Arab World Historically Defined

The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491

Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

Result

Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs.

Each of these empires would also be a formal region

As a Religous Region

With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade

Result

Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity.

Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.

Religious % in Arab League

As a Political Region

Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League

Algeria

Bahrain

Comoros

Djibouti

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

MauritaniaMorocco

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Somalia

Sudan

Syria

Tunisia

U.A.E

Yemen

The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests.

FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia

How does this compare to the US?

Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state.

But it should get you thinking!!!

Turkey not Arab

Iran not Arab

USAPopulation: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN)

Arab LeagueFounded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: ArabicLife Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men

More Direct Comparison

Conclusion of Comparison

Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US

25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US

Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.

Result

On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America

As a Unified Region

Variations on the Western Fringe:

Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs

How unified is this region?

Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions

Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries

Click here for examples:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf

Inside there are variations.

Examples of Hidden InformationCountry What it has to hide

Lebanon Religious differences not measured since 1932

Syria Religious differences not measured since 1960

Jordon Ethnic differences not measured since 1948

S. ArabiaTotal population counts questionable, no

religious data

Egypt Undercounts Coptic Christians

BahrainSunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a

majority

QatarWith an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data

not measured

Unemployment

No Arab state seems to accurately report unemploymentFor example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher)

See http://www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemployment_rate.html

How does this relate to Oil/Gas?

Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil?

In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.

As an Economic Region

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map04.gif

Oil Reserves (Gb)

Country Gb

OPEC Nations

Saudi Arabia 261.8

Iraq 112.5

United Arab Emirates 97.8

Kuwait 96.5

Iran 89.7

Venezuela 77.8

Libya 29.5

Nigeria 24

Qatar 15.2

Algeria 9.2

Indonesia 5

Non-OPEC Nations

Canada 180

Russia 60

United States 22.4

Mexico 12.6

Norway 10.2

Oman 5.5

United Kingdom 4.7

Egypt 3.7

Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.

Two oil centers in Arab Region

Saudi Arabia

Oman

United Arab Emirates

Bahrain

Kuwait

Qatar

The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich

Saudi Arabia

KuwaitBahrain

Qatar

Oman

United Arab Emirates

CountryBahrainKuwaitOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates

500 0 500 1000 Miles

N

EW

S

Gulf Cooperation Council MembersOil Reserves (Gb)  

Country Gb GCC

OPEC Nations  

Saudi Arabia 261.8 Y

United Arab Emirates 97.8 Y

Kuwait 96.5 Y

Libya 29.5  

Qatar 15.2 Y

Algeria 9.2  

Non-OPEC Nations  

Oman 5.5 Y

Egypt 3.7  

If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.

A result

Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area.

GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?

% Non-NativeUnder 20%20 - 3535 - 5050 - 6565 - 80

500 0 500 1000 Miles

N

EW

S

GCC: Percent Non-NativePopulation by Year by Country

19901975 2000

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Oman

BahrainQatar

United Arab Emirates

Population in 2000Nationals ............ 20 millionNon-nationals …. 10 million

Note how many 30-35 year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals

As a Demographic Region

4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart).

1

2

3

Result

Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results

RNI1960 1980 2000

Lebanon 2.9 2.2 1.4

Egypt 2.6 2.8 1.9

Saudi Arabia 2.6 3.2 2.5

Somolia 2.8

Four Demographic Division of Arab World

Slow Growth

Slowing Areas

Oil Rich/Pro-Natal GCC

Not Developing

Most recent 2011

2011 EstimatesCountry TFR NRI

Lebanon 1.78 1.04%

Egypt 2.69 1.70%

Saudi Arabia 2.74 1.90%

Yemen 5.09 2.30%

Somalia 6.32 2.90%

Additional Results

1. Slow growth areas will join developed nations

2. Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor

Possible Results

3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little?

4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability

Somalia???

Final ConclusionsThere are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but…

Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures

Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states

Study Questions

1. Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against?

2. In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?

3. If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.