AR-Sen, AR-Gov Univ. of Arkansas (Oct. 2013)

7/27/2019 AR-Sen, AR-Gov Univ. of Arkansas (Oct. 2013)

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110 Davis Hall Fayetteville, AR 72701 479-575-5555 FAX 479-575-4745 http://newswire.uark.edu

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2013

Arkansas Poll: Voters Express Record Levels of

Pessimism About the Future

Arkansans continue trend toward Republican-leaning Independents

Follow the University of Arkansas on Twitter@uarkansas

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. The 15

th

annual Arkansas Poll, conducted during the federalshutdown, found residents of the state dramatically more pessimistic about the future while

continuing the trend toward identifying as Republican-leaning Independents. The economy

continues to be identified as the most important problem facing Arkansans. The poll was

conducted from Oct. 10-17.

When asked about life in Arkansas, only 63 percent of respondents agreed that Arkansas is

generally headed in the right direction, 10 points lower than last year. The only time confidence

levels have polled this low was in 2003, when the rate was also 63 percent.

A historic record low of 14 percent of people reported being better off financially as

compared to a year ago, down from 23 percent last year. Only 18 percent of respondents

expected their financial situation to be better next year, the lowest level of confidence since this

question was first asked in 1999. An unprecedented 24 percent of respondents expect finances to

be worse, up from 13 percent last year, and well above the most pessimistic past response of 20

percent in 2010.

Its impossible to say for certain what has caused such pessimism among Arkansans, poll

director Janine Parry said. Given theres really nothing dramatically different from last year in

the broader environment, the recent federal government shutdown seems like the obvious

culprit.

When it came to the federal shutdown, which began October 1 and ended Oct. 17, Arkansans

blamed the president and his party. A full 37 percent of respondents and 39 percent of likely


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voters blamed President Obama and the Democrats for the shutdown. Only 26 percent of

respondents and 27 percent of likely voters blamed the Republicans in Congress.

When respondents considered the performance of their elected officials in Washington, D.C.,

all lawmakers saw drops in approval ratings. John Boozman received his lowest approval ratings

yet, 34 percent of likely voters, down from 45 percent last year. Moreover, his disapproval rating

jumped to 29 percent of likely voters from 18 percent last year.Only 34 percent of likely voters approved of Mark Pryors performance, down from 53

percent last year. His disapproval ratings were also dramatically higher, with 44 percent of likely

voters disapproving of his performance, up from 21 percent last year.

In contrast, both current senators are polling well below the Arkansas Poll numbers for

former Sen. Blanche Lincoln during her last year of office. She was voted out of office in 2010.

At her lowest in 2009, 43 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of her performance.

Once again, Arkansans gave low ratings to President Barack Obama, with 29 percent of

likely voters approving and 66 percent disapproving of his performance.

While Gov. Mike Beebes approval rating declined from 72 percent to 68 percent of likely

voters, an increase in his disapproval rating was not statistically significant.

The 2014 elections were too close to call, although likely voters were more likely to choose

someone from the Republican Party in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives or state

legislature for which no candidates were specified. Looking forward to the 2016 presidential

election, the poll asked a speculative question that showed 44 percent of likely voters choosing

Hillary Clinton over a Republican nominee, with 42 percent choosing the Republican.

The poll results show Arkansans leaning right. There was no significant change in the

percentage of likely voters who identify themselves as Democrats 30 percent in 2012 and 31

percent in 2013 or liberal 12 percent in 2012 and 14 percent in 2013. A slight decline in the

percentage of Republicans 32 percent in 2012 to 27 percent in 2013 was matched by an

increase in self-identified Independents 32 percent in 2012 up to 36 percent in 2013. Of the

Independents, 51 percent of likely voters lean Republican versus 22 percent who lean

Democratic.

Parry said, The question is does the rightward shift in Arkansas voters solidify to continue

beyond this particular president, who continues to be peculiarly unpopular here, or can the

Democrats white-knuckle it to 2016 and win back at least some of the brand loyalty they enjoyed

for more than 100 years? Or is Republican ascendance permanent?


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Once again, the poll surveyed Arkansans about attitudes toward gay couples. By and large

results were similar to previous years with less than a quarter of Arkansans supporting marriage

or civil unions for same-sex couples. When it comes to the statement There should be no legal

recognition of a gay couples relationship, only 46 percent of Arkansans agreed, the first time

the response has dipped below 50 percent. This year the poll asked whether gays and lesbians

should have equal rights in job opportunities, and 81 percent of likely voters agreed that theyshould.

For the first time, the poll asked Arkansans about their support for granting in-state tuition to

graduates of Arkansas high schools who are in the country illegally. Just 36 percent of likely

voters approved of that option, and 54 percent disapproved. While 59 percent of Arkansans

support allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria,

that level of support is not a statistically significant change from the 56 percent of last year.

Methodology and Sample Information

The 2013 Arkansas Poll was conducted by Issues & Answers Network. Between Oct. 10 and

17, interviewers completed 800 live telephone interviews among a random sample of adult

Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents were cell phone users.

The surveys margin of error statewide is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning that

researchers are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points in

either direction of the result the polls sample produced.

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team

publishes what most polling organizations do not, a comparison of survey respondents key

demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is available on the

poll website. A summary report of the 2013 poll results and data from past Arkansas Polls will

be available at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23, at the Arkansas Poll website.

The 2012 Arkansas Poll was sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and

Society at the University of Arkansas, Todd Shields, director. The poll was designed and

analyzed by Parry, a professor in the department of political science in the J. William Fulbright

College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arkansas. Data is available from current and

past Arkansas Polls.

-30-

CONTACTS:

Janine Parry, professor, political science


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J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences479-575-6439 and 479-409-0968 (cell),[email protected]

Barbara Jaquish, science and research writer

University of Arkansas479-575-2683,[email protected]

Members of the media can subscribe to the Arkansas Newswire weekday email by sending a note to Charlie Alison at [email protected].


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CONTACTS: Janine Parry, Poll Director, 479-575-6439 or 479-409-0968,[email protected] Jaquish, Science and Research Communication Officer, 479-575-2683,[email protected]

The Arkansas Poll, 2013

Summary Report

Dr. Janine A. Parry

Poll Director, Professor of Political Science

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Interviews conducted by: Issues & Answers Network, Inc.Project sponsored by: The Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society,

Dean Todd Shields, Director

Arkansas Poll Website: http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php

Table of Contents

Most Important Problem/Public Figure Approval/Upcoming Elections. p. 2-3

Politics and Elections/Current Issues... p. 3-5

Political Party/Ideology p. 5-6

Life in Arkansas... p. 6

Methodology and Sample Details ......................................................................................... .. p. 7

*Values in parentheses include the very likely voters only; may not total 100 due to rounding.

n

t


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Most Important ProblemWhat is the most important problem or issue facing people in

Arkansas today?1

2011 2012 2013

the economy 67 (70)% 47 (48)% 44 (44)% healthcare 3 (3)% 15 (15)% 12 (12)% politicians/politics -- -- 7 (8)% taxes 3 (2)% 6 (5)% 7 (7)%

education5 (4)% 11 (12)% 5 (5)%

drugs 3 (3)% 12 (11)% 3 (2)% other/dont know/refused 17 (17)% 5 (4)% 24 (22)%

Public Figure Approval RatingsDo you approve or disapprove of the way ______________ ishandling his job as governor?

Approve Disapprove DK/Ref

Mike Huckabee 1999 66% 13% 21%

2001 70% 17% 13%

2003 47% 38% 16%

2005 58% 27% 15%

Mike Beebe 2007 70% 9% 21%

2009 70% 9% 20%

2011 72 (74)% 13 (14)% 15 (12)%

2012 71 (72)% 14 (15)% 15 (14)%

2013 66 (68)% 17 (17)% 18 (14%

Do you approve of __________ as a U.S. Senator?

Blanche Lincoln 2001 51% 13% 36%

2003 55% 10% 35%

2005 55% 17% 28%

2007 50% 24% 26%

2009 43% 34% 23%

John Boozman 2011 40 (44 )% 24 (26)% 36 (30)%

2012 42 (45)% 17 (18)% 41 (35)%

2013 30 (34)% 28 (29)% 42 (37)%

Do you Mark Pryor as a U.S. Senator?2003 52% 11% 37%

2005 56% 12% 32%

2007 53% 18% 29%

2009 51% 22% 27%

2011 47 (48)% 27 (29)% 27 (21)%

2012 51 (53)% 20 (21)% 29 (26)%

2013 33 (34)% 41 (44)% 26 (23)%

Do you _________________ as president?

George W. Bush 2005 38% 56% 7%

2007 30% 65% 6%

Barack Obama 2009 42% 47% 10%

2010 35 (31)% 57 (62)% 9 (7)%2011 32 (31)% 60 (64)% 8 (5)%

2012 34 (31)% 59 (62)% 8 (6)%

2013 27 (29)% 65 (66)% 8 (5)%

1 In odd-numbered years, the Arkansas Poll records and codes the open-ended answers of respondents. In even-numbered years,

respondents are asked to choose from the most frequently mentioned issues of the previous year.2 Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.


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Politics and ElectionsSuppose the election were held today. (M)ore likely to vote for? R D Other/DK/Ref

U.S. Senate (Cotton/Pryor/Other) 32 (37)% 34 (36)% 34 (27)%

Arkansas Governor (Hutchinson/Ross/Other) 32 (35)% 30 (31)% 38 (34)%

U.S. House (generic) 32 (38)% 31 (31)% 37 (31)%

State legislative elections (generic) 36 (41)% 33 (33)% 31 (26)%

President 2016 (Hillary Clinton or Republican nominee) 44 (42)% 39 (44)% 17 (14)%

Who do you blame most for the government shutdown?

President Obama and the Democrats 37 (39)%Republicans in Congress 26 (27)%

Both (silent) 37 (34)%

Have you been personally affected by the government shutdown?

Yes 20 (20)%

No 79 (79)%

Dont know/refused 2 (1)%

Current IssuesAccording to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014, most Americans will be required to havehealth insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?

Aware 89 (92)%

Not aware 9 (7)%Dont Know/Refused 1 (1)%

And will you have insurance at that time, or do you think youll choose to pay the fine?

Will have health insurance 88 (92)%

Will pay the fine 5 (4)%

Dont know/Refused 7 (5)%

. How familiar are you with these health insurance exchanges? Would you say youre

Very familiar 12 (12)%

Somewhat familiar 27 (30)%

Not too familiar 26 (26)%

Not at all familiar 31 (29)%

Dont know/Refused 4 (3)%

First, in general, would you say you favor stricter guncontrol, less strict gun control, or should no change be

made to existing gun control laws? Stricter Less StrictNo

Change

DK/

Refused

2000 39% 15% 42% 4%

2002 36% 15% 45% 4%

2004 38% 12% 45% 5%

2006 37% 11% 47% 5%

2008 29% 13% 54% 4%

2009 24% 20% 52% 4%

2013 33 (33)% 15 (15)% 47 (48)% 6 (4)%

Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult fora woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would makeit easier to get an abortion or should no change be made

to existing abortion laws?

More

Difficult Easier

No

Change

DK/

Refused

1999 45% 14% 32% 9%

2001 46% 13% 35% 7%

2003 47% 13% 33% 7%

2005 44% 9% 39% 8%

2007 41% 13% 36% 9%

2009 43% 11% 38% 8%

2013 44 (44)% 11 (11)% 34 (35)% 11 (10)%


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4

Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding relationshipsbetween two people of the same sex?

3

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry2005 15%

2007 16%

2009 18%

2011 23 (22)%

2013 23 (24)%

Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic partnerships, but not marry2005 22%

2007 27%

2009 22%

2011 20 (22)%

2013 21 (23)%

There should be no legal recognition of a gay couples relationship2005 54%

2007 51%

2009 54%

2011 50 (51)%

2013 46 (46)%

dont know/refused 2005 9%2007 6%

2009 6%

2011 7 (6)%

2013 9 (7)%

And which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding undocumentedimmigrants currently residing in the United States. Should the government:

allow them to remain in the United States to work for a limited amount of time?2009 9%

2011 8 (8)%

2013 9 (9)%

allow them to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria like learning English andpaying their back-taxes?2009 57%

2011 56 (57)%

2013 59 (59)%

deport all?2009 27%

2011 27 (28)%

2012 26 (25)%

2013 21 (21)%

allow them to become permanent residents with no requirements?2009 2%

2011 3 (2)%2013 2 (2)%

dont know/refused2009 5%

2011 6 (6)%

2013 9 (8)%

3 Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.


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Do you approve of individuals who graduate from an AR highschool but are in the U.S. illegally having access to in-state tuition

?

Approve Disapprove DK/Refused

2013 35 (36)% 52 (54)% 13 (10)%

(D)o you think gays and lesbians should have equal rights in terms

of job opportunities?

Should Shouldnt DK/Refused

2013 78 (81)% 12 (11)% 9 (9)%

Political Party and IdeologyGenerally speaking, do you usuallythink of yourself as a Republican, a

Democrat, an Independent, or what? Republican Democrat Indept OtherDK/

Refused4

1999 23% 35% 31% 4% 7%

2000 23 (25)% 36 (38)% 35 (34)% 0% 6 (2)%

2001 27% 33% 32% 5% 3%

2002 28 (30)% 33 (35)% 33 (31)% 3 (2)% 3 (2)%

2003 24% 38% 31% 4% 3%

2004 30 (32)% 35 (36)% 28 (27)% 3 (3)% 4 (2)%

2005 23% 36% 33% 4% 4%

2006 23 (25)% 36 (37)% 33 (33)% 3 (3)% 4 (3)%

2007 24% 39% 30% 3% 2%2008 24 (27)% 35 (34)% 33 (33)% 7 (5)% 2 (1)%

2009 24% 33% 34% 7% 3%

2010 21 (25)% 28 (27)% 42 (41)% 7 (6)% 3 (1)%

2011 26 (29)% 31 (33)% 34 (31)% 6 (5)% 4 (2)%

2012 29 (32)% 31 (30)% 33 (32)% 3 (3)% 4 (3)%

2013 24 (27)% 30 (31)% 37 (36)% 4 (3)% 5 (3)%

Independents only: Do you think ofyourself ?

Closer to

Republican

Closer to

Democrat

Just Indept DK/

Refused

1999 33% 29% 34% 4%

2000 35 (39)% 25 (26)% 35 (30)% 5 (2)%

2001 29% 36% 31% 4%

2002 30 (31)% 32 (34)% 33 (33)% 4 (3)%2003 33% 34% 33% 2%

2004 39 (41)% 31 (32)% 30 (26)% 0 (1)%

2005 30% 35% 32% 4%

2006 33 (35)% 34 (34)% 30 (23)% 2 (3)%

2007 34% 37% 29% 1%

2008 35 (38)% 30 (29)% 33 (31)% 3 (3)%

2009 39% 32% 27% 2%

2010 44 (50)% 21 (16)% 33 (33)% 2 (2)%

2011 42 (48)% 29 (28 )% 26 (22 )% 3 (2)%

2012 41 (46)% 26 (22)% 28 (27)% 6 (5)%

2013 43 (51)% 21 (22)% 31 (22)% 6 (6)%

Do you think of yourself as ? Liberal Moderate Conserve DK/Ref

1999 14% 38% 38% 10%

2000 16% 36% 39% 9%

2001 17% 39% 38% 6%

2002 15% 39% 41% 5%

2003 17% 36% 39% 7%



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2004 17% 35% 42% 7%

2005 13% 40% 39% 8%

2006 16% 39% 39% 7%

2007 16% 37% 39% 6%

2008 14% 35% 43% 8%

2009 14% 37% 42% 7%

2010 14 (12)% 35 (36)% 44 (48)% 8 (4)%

2011 16 (16)% 34 (34)% 45 (47)% 5 (3)%

2012 13 (12)% 32 (32)% 46 (51)% 9 (6)%2013 14 (14)% 31 (31)% 44 (48)% 11 (7)%

Life in ArkansasOverall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in

the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right Wrong DK/

Refused5

2003 63% 26% 11%

2005 73% 18% 9%

2007 69% 21% 8%

2008 71% 19% 10%

2009 72% 16% 12%

2010 67 (68)% 22 (21)% 11 (11)%

2011 74 (76)% 20 (19)% 7 (6)%

2012 73 (74)% 17 (17)% 10 (9)%

2013 63 (66)% 20 (20)% 16 (14)%

Would you say you are better off financially, worse off,or about the same compared to a year ago?

Better About the

Same

Worse DK/

Refused

2003 27% 45% 28% 1%

2005 28% 49% 22% 1%

2007 30% 48% 20% 1%

2008 20% 38% 41% 1%

2009 22% 46% 31% 2%

2010 19 (18)% 46 (47)% 34 (35)% 1 (0)%

2011 19 (19)% 49 (49)% 31 (32)% 1 (1)%

2012 23 (24)% 49 (50)% 27 (26)% 0 (1)%2013 14 (14)% 58 (58)% 26 (26)% 2 (1)%

And, looking ahead, do you think a year from now, youwill be as now?

Better About the

Same

Worse DK/

Refused

2003 35% 49% 12% 5%

2005 34% 46% 15% 5%

2007 38% 45% 12% 3%

2008 35% 39% 18% 8%

2009 32% 48% 17% 4%

2010 28 (25)% 46 (45)% 20 (23)% 7 (7)%

2011 25 (21)% 52 (56)% 18 (20)% 4 (4)%

2012 26 (27)% 48 (46)% 13 (13)% 13 (14)%

2013 18 (18)% 47 (49)% 24 (25)% 11 (8)%



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Between October 10th and October 17th Issues & Answers Network, Inc. completed 800 telephone surveysamong a random sample of adult Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents interviewed (n=160) usetheir cell phones for all or most of their calls.

The surveys margin of error statewide is +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning that we are 95 percent confidentthat the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points (in either direction) of the result our sample produced.

Employing guidelines established by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the pollsoverall cooperation rate was 27% (29% for landline calls and 22% for cell phone calls). This figure reflectscompleted surveys as a percentage of all eligible individuals contacted.

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes whatmost polling organizations do not: a comparison of survey respondents key demographic characteristics tothose of the state as a whole. This information is reported in the table below.

2013 Arkansas Poll

Sample State of Arkansas

Average Age Category (for 18+ pop.) 55-64 45-54Married 58% 51%Gender

Male 40% 49%Female 60% 51%

Educational Attainment

High school graduates 88% 84%College graduates 35% 19%

Median Household Income $35,001-$50,000 $38,307Race/Ethnicity

White 83% 77%Black or African American 9% 15%

Multi-Ethnic 1% 2%Hispanic 1% 6%*

Native American 2% 1%Asian 1% 1%

Something Else, Dont Know,Refused

8% -

Sources: The 2013 Arkansas Poll, 2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census.

*Hispanics may be of any race, so these respondents also are included in applicable race categories.

Methodology and Sample Information


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2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2

I&A Job#15357

(reload of 14652 with changes)

1

Q1

I would first like to ask you how many years you have lived in Arkansas, or have you lived

here all of your life?

Gave number of years ........................................................................... 01 (enter number of years)Less than one year ................................................................................. 96

All my life ............................................................................................. 97

Don't know ............................................................................................ 98Refused .................................................................................................. 99

Do not currently live in Arkansas ........................................................ 90 [TERMINATE]

Q49

(RECORD GENDER BY OBSERVATION. IF UNSURE, ASK: And, I am required to ask

you this, are you male or female?) (DO NOT READ LIST)

Male ......................................................................................................... 1

Female ..................................................................................................... 2

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [TERMINATE]Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [TERMINATE]


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I&A Job#15357


2

Q2

In what county do you live? (DO NOT READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

Don't know .................................. 98Refused ......................... ............... 99

Arkansas ...................................... 01Ashley ............. .............. ............... 47

Baxter .......................................... 02

Benton ......................................... 35

Boone .......................................... 36

Bradley ........................................ 48Calhoun ....................................... 49

Carroll ............. .............. ............... 37

Chicot .......................................... 50

Clark ............................................ 51

Clay ............................................. 03Cleburne ...................................... 04

Cleveland ......................... ............ 52

Columbia ..................................... 53

Conway .............. .............. ............ 27

Craighead .................................... 05

Crawford .............. .............. .......... 38Crittenden .................................... 06

Cross ............. .............. .............. ... 07

Dallas .............. .............. ............... 54

Desha .......................... .............. ... 55

Drew ............................................ 56

Faulkner ............. .............. ............ 28Franklin ....................................... 39

Fulton .......................................... 08

Garland ........................................ 57

Grant ............. .............. .............. ... 58

Greene ......................................... 09Hempstead .................... ............... 59Hot Springs ............ .............. ........ 60

Howard ........................................ 61

Independent ................................ 10Izard ............................................ 11

Jackson........................................ 12Jefferson...................................... 62

Johnson ....................................... 40

Lafayette ..................................... 63

Lawrence .................................... 13

Lee .............................................. 14Lincoln ........................................ 64

Little River .................................. 65

Logan .......................................... 66

Lonoke ........................................ 15

Madison ...................................... 41Marion ........................................ 42

Miller .......................................... 67

Mississippi .................................. 16

Monroe........................................ 17

Montgomery ............................... 68

Nevada ......................... .............. . 69Newton........................................ 43

Ouachita ...................................... 70

Perry............................................ 29

Philips ......................................... 18

Pike ............................................. 71

Poinsett ....................................... 19Polk ............................................. 72

Pope ............................................ 44

Prairie.......................................... 20

Pulaski ........................................ 30

Randolph ..................................... 21Saline .......................................... 31Scott ............................................ 73

Searcy ......................................... 23

Sebastian ..................................... 45

Sevier .......................................... 74

Sharp ........................................... 24St. Francis ................................... 22

Stone ........................................... 25

Union .......................................... 75

Van Buren ................................... 32

Washington ................................. 46

White .......................................... 33

Woodruff .................................... 26Yell ............................................. 34


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I&A Job#15357


3

Q3

In your opinion, what do you think is the most important problem or issue facing

people in Arkansas today? (DO NOT READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

The economy/Jobs/Unemployment/Poverty .............................. 01

Education ..................................................................................... 02Healthcare/Health insurance/Access to doctors/Costs. .............. 03Drugs ........................................................................................... 04Taxes/Big Government ........................................................... 05

Immigration ................................................................................. 06

Budget/Deficit/Debt .................................................................... 10Crime .......................................................................................... 11

Morality/Family breakdown/Religion (God/Bible, etc.) ............ 12Politicians/Politics ....................................................................... 13Racism ......................................................................................... 14

Roads ........................................................................................... 15

War/Afghanistan/Iraq/Terrorism ................................................. 16

Environment/Climate change/Global warming ........................... 17Fuel/Energy/Gas prices ............................................................... 18

Other (specify) ............................................................................. 19

Don't know .................................................................................. 88Refused ........................................................................................ 99

COMM1

Thank you. Let's move on to your thoughts on some of the people who are involved ingovernment and politics. [ROTATE Q4-Q7]

Q4

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Beebe is handling his job as governor? (DONOT READ LIST)

Approve ................................................................................................... 1

Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q5

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

(DO NOT READ LIST)

Approve ................................................................................................... 1

Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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I&A Job#15357


4

Q6

Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Boozman is handling his job as U.S.

Senator? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Approve ................................................................................................... 1


Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q7

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Pryor is handling his job as U.S. Senator?

(DO NOT READ LIST)

Approve ................................................................................................... 1


Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q50A

Thank you. Now let's look ahead to the elections of 2014. Lets start with the race for the

U.S. Senate. At this point, are you likely to vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF

CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

Tom Cotton, the Republican ................................................................... 1 [SKIP TO Q51]

Mark Pryor, the Democrat ....................................................................... 2 [SKIP TO Q51]Another candidate (specify) .................................................................... 3 [CONTINUE TO Q50B]

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8 [SKIP TO Q51]

(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q51]

Q50B

For whom do you plan to vote? [OPEN-END]

Q51

And what about the race for Arkansas Governor? At this point, are you likely to vote for

[RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

Asa Hutchinson, the Republican ............................................................. 1 [SKIP TO Q52]

Mike Ross, the Democrat ........................................................................ 2 [SKIP TO Q52]Another candidate ................................................................................... 3 [CONTINUE TO Q51B]

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8 [SKIP TO Q52]


Q51BFor whom do you plan to vote? [OPEN-END]


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I&A Job#15357


5

Q52

And what about for the U.S. House race in your area? At this point, are you likely to vote

for [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

The Republican candidate ....................................................................... 1

The Democratic candidate ....................................................................... 2A candidate from another party ............................................................... 3

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8

(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

Q53

And what about the STATE legislative races in your community? As of today, would you

say youre likely to vote for(READ LIST, SELECT ONE) [RANDOMIZE ORDER]

The Republican candidates in those state-level races ............................. 1The Democratic candidates in those state-level races ............................. 2

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

Q54

And, just for fun, what about the presidential race in 2016? If Hillary Clinton were the

Democratic nominee, would you be more likely to vote for her, or for the Republican

nominee? [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES]

Hillary Clinton ......................................................................................... 1The Republican nominee ......................................................................... 2



COMM3

Thank you. Next, I have a couple of questions about some issues that are often in the news.

Q12

In general, would you say that you favor stricter gun control, less strict gun control, or

should no change be made to the existing gun control laws? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Stricter ..................................................................................................... 1Less strict ................................................................................................. 2

No change .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ........... 3

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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Q13Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, favor

laws that would make it easier to get an abortion, or should no change be made to existing

abortion laws? (DO NOT READ LIST)

More difficult .......................................................................................... 1Easier ....................................................................................................... 2No change .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ........... 3

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q14

Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding

undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States. Should the government:

(READ LIST)

Allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the United States towork for a limited amount of time. ......................................................... 1

Allow undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens if they meetcertain criteria like learning English and paying their back-taxes. ......... 2Deport all undocumented immigrants ..................................................... 3

Allow undocumented immigrants to become permanent residents

with no requirements. .............................................................................. 4



[RANDOMIZE ORDER OF Q15 AND Q55]

Q15

Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding

relationships between two people of the same sex: (READ LIST)

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. ................................... 1

Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic

partnerships, but not legally marry .............. .............. .............. ............... . 2

There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...... 3



Q55

In general, do you think gays and lesbians should or should not have equal rights in terms

of job opportunities?

Yes, they should have equal rights. ......................................................... 1

No, they should not have equal rights .................. ............... .............. ...... 2(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8



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Q18

Some have argued that people who come to Arkansas when they are young and who

graduate from an Arkansas high school, but who are not legally in the United States, should

have access to in-state tuition at the state's public colleges and universities. Do you approveor disapprove of allowing such individuals to pay in-state tuition, instead of the higher rate

paid by non-Arkansans? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Approve ................................................................................................... 1

Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2

Dont know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q56

According to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014 most Americans will be

required to have health insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?

Aware ...................................................................................................... 1

Not aware ....... .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .... 2Dont know .............................................................................................. 8Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q57

And will you have health insurance at that time, or do you think youll choose to pay

the fine? (DO NOT READ LIST. IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHAT THE FINE IS, REFER

TO FAQ SHEET)

Will have health insurance ...................................................................... 1

Will pay the fine ...................................................................................... 2

Dont know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q58

And, as you may have heard, earlier this month, health insurance plans were made available

through the Affordable Care Acts health insurance exchanges. How familiar are you with

these health insurance exchanges? Would you say youre(READ LIST)

Very familiar ........................................................................................... 1

Somewhat familiar .................................................................................. 2

Not too familiar ...................... .............. .............. .............. .............. ......... 3

Not at all familiar ......... .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .... 4

(DO NOT READ) Dont know ............................................................... 8(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9


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Q59

Who do you blame most for the government shutdown? [RANDOMIZE OPTIONS 1 AND

2] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

President Obama and the Democrats in Congress .................................. 1

Republicans in Congress ......................................................................... 2(DO NOT READ) Both ........................................................................... 3

Q60

Have you been personally affected by the government shutdown?

Yes ........................................................................................................... 1

No .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ........ 2

(DO NOT READ) Dont know ............................................................... 8(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

DEMO

Thank you. Next, Ill ask you some questions about yourself so that we can be sure we'rehearing from a wide range of Arkansans.

Q19

First, do you live in a city, a suburb, a small town or a rural area? (INTERVIEWER: If

respondent asks for a definition for one of these, tell them, "whatever it means to you") (DO

NOT READ LIST)

City .......................................................................................................... 1

Suburb ..................................................................................................... 2

Small town ............................................................................................... 3

Rural area ................................................................................................ 4

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q20

Which of the following education categories best describes your highest level of schooling?

I have a list here, so feel free to stop me at any time. Is it? (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)

No high school ...... .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ........... 1Some high school .................................................................................... 2High school graduate ............................................................................... 3

Some college including business or trade school .................................... 4

College graduate ...................................................................................... 5

Some graduate school .............................................................................. 6

Graduate or professional degree .............................................................. 7Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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Q21

And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic group: (READ LIST,

SELECT ONE)

White ....................................................................................................... 1Black or African-American ..................................................................... 2

Hispanic ................................................................................................... 3

Asian ........................................................................................................ 4

Native American ........ .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ...... 5

Multi-Ethnic ............................................................................................ 6

Something else ........................................................................................ 7

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

COMM6

Thank you. The next questions are about your general evaluation of the quality of life in our

state.

Q31

Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong

direction? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Right ........................................................................................................ 1

Wrong ...................................................................................................... 2

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q32

On a more individual level, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or aboutthe same compared to a year ago? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Better ....................................................................................................... 1

Worse ...................................................................................................... 2

About the same ........................................................................................ 3Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q33

And, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you will be better off financially,

worse off, or about the same as now? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Better ....................................................................................................... 1Worse ...................................................................................................... 2About the same ........................................................................................ 3

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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DEMOb

Thank you. Finally, I'd like to ask you a few more questions about yourself so we can be

sure we're hearing from a wide range of Arkansans.

Q34

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,

or what? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Republican ............................................................................................... 1

Democrat ................................................................................................. 2 [SKIP TO Q34B]Independent ............................................................................................. 3 [SKIP TO Q34C]

Other ........................................................................................................ 4 [SKIP TO Q35]

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [SKIP TO Q35]

Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q35]

Q34A

Would you call yourself a strong Republican, or a not very strong Republican? (DO NOT

READ LIST)

Strong Republican ................................................................................... 1 [SKIP TO Q35]

Not very strong Republican ............. .............. ............... .............. ............. 2 [SKIP TO Q35]


Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q35]

Q34B

Would you call yourself a strong Democrat, or a not very strong Democrat? (DO NOTREAD LIST)

Strong Democrat ..................................................................................... 1 [SKIP TO Q35]

Not a very strong Democrat ................. .............. .............. .............. ......... 2 [SKIP TO Q35]Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [SKIP TO Q35]

Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q35]

Q34C

Well, do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party? (DO NOTREAD LIST)

Closer to Republican ............................................................................... 1

Closer to Democrat .................................................................................. 2Just Independent ...................................................................................... 3

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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Q35

How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you think of

yourself as a Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Liberal ..................................................................................................... 1

Moderate .................................................................................................. 2 [SKIP TO Q36]Conservative ............................................................................................ 3 [SKIP TO Q35B]


Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q36]

Q35A

Would you say you are strongly Liberal or somewhat Liberal? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Strongly Liberal ....................................................................................... 1 [SKIP TO Q36]

Somewhat Liberal ................................................................................... 2 [SKIP TO Q36]Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [SKIP TO Q36]

Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q36]

Q35B

Would you say that you are strongly Conservative or somewhat Conservative? (DO NOT

READ LIST)

Strongly Conservative ............................................................................. 1 [SKIP TO Q36]

Somewhat Conservative .......................................................................... 2 [SKIP TO Q36]


Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q36]

Q36

Which of the following income categories best describes your total 2013 householdincome? I have a list here, feel free to stop me at any time. Was it(READ LIST)

$7,500 or less ......................................................................................... 01

$7,501 to $15,000 .................................................................................. 02

$15,001 to $25,000 ................................................................................ 03

$25,001 to $35,000 ................................................................................ 04$35,001 to $50,000 ................................................................................ 05

$50,001 to $75,000 ................................................................................ 06

$75,001 to $100,000 .............................................................................. 07

$100,001 or over ................................................................................... 08

(DO NOT READ) Don't know .............................................................. 98

(DO NOT READ) Refused ................................................................... 99


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Q37

Do you have some form of health insurance or health coverage? (DO NOT READ LIST)

Yes ........................................................................................................... 1No .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ........ 2

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q38

About how often do you attend religious services? Is it.. (READ LIST)

Never ..................... .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ........... 1

Once a year .............................................................................................. 2

Several times a year ................................................................................. 3

About once a month ................................................................................ 42-3 times a month .................................................................................... 5

Every week .............................................................................................. 6More than once a week ............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ...... 7

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

Q39

Which of the following best describes your current religious preference? Is it(READ

LIST) (INTERVIEWER: Any Christian faith that is not Catholic or Greek Orthodox should

be classified as Protestant. Greek Orthodox is classified as "Other".)

Protestant (Prah-test-ant) ......................................................................... 1

Catholic ................................................................................................... 2Jewish ...................................................................................................... 3 [SKIP TO Q41]

Something else ........................................................................................ 4 [SKIP TO Q41]

(DO NOT READ) None .......................................................................... 5 [SKIP TO Q41](DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8 [SKIP TO Q41]


Q40

Do you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian? (INTERVIEWER: If the

respondent asks for a definition of either of these terms, tell them, "We want to know how

you feel about yourself. Do you identify with either of these labels?") (DO NOT READ

LIST)

Yes ........................................................................................................... 1No .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ........ 2

Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9


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Q41

Which of these best describes your present marital status? (READ LIST)

Married .................................................................................................... 1Not married but living together ........................ .............. .............. ........... 2

Separated or divorced .............................................................................. 3Widowed ................................................................................................. 4

Never married or single ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .... 5



Q42

We're nearly done: How many people, including yourself, live in your household?

(INTERVIEWER: This would include children) (DONT KNOW=98, REFUSED=99)

_______ Enter Number

Q43Do you have any school aged children? (INTERVIEWER: THIS INCLUDES CHILDRENIN KINDERGARTEN THROUGH GRADE 12 ONLY) (DO NOT READ LIST)

Yes ........................................................................................................... 1

No .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ........ 2 [SKIP TO Q44]


Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q44]

Q43A

How many school aged children do you have? (DONT KNOW=98, REFUSED=99)

_______ Enter Number

Q44

What is your current employment status? Is it(READ LIST, SELECT UP TO TWO

RESPONSES)

Employed full-time ................................................................................. 1

Employed part-time ................................................................................. 2

Self-employed ......................................................................................... 3

Unemployed ............................................................................................ 4Retired ..................................................................................................... 5

(DO NOT READ) Don't know ............. .............. .............. .............. ......... 8 X

(DO NOT READ) Refused ............. .............. ............... .............. ............. 9 X


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Q46

Are you a registered voter?

Yes ........................................................................................................... 1

No .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ........ 2Don't know .............................................................................................. 8

Refused .................................................................................................... 9

Q47

And, how likely are you to vote in the next elections that take place in November 2014?

Are you:

Very Likely ............................................................................................. 1

Likely ...................................................................................................... 2

Unlikely ................................................................................................... 3

Very unlikely ........................................................................................... 4(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8


Q48

In what year were you born? (DONT KNOW=9998, REFUSED=9999)

_______ Enter Year

ZIP

[ASK CELL PHONE SAMPLE ONLY]

What is your zip code? (DONT KNOW=99998, REFUSED=99999)

_______ Enter zip code

COMM7

Thank you very much for helping us with the Arkansas Poll. Have a nice

day/afternoon/evening.

Documents

AR-Sen, AR-Gov Univ. of Arkansas (Oct. 2013)