Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test

    by

    Robert Bain (G)

    Fourth-year undergraduate project

    in Group D, 2007/2008

    I hereby declare that, except where specifically indicated, the work submitted herein is

    my own original work

    Signed .. Date:

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | Technical Abstract i

    Technical Abstract

    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test

    Motivation and purpose

    The project was motivated by the scale and severity of problems with water supplies in

    developing countries. Every year 1.8 million deaths (of these 90% are children under five)

    are attributable to poor water supplies, sanitation and hygiene (WHO, 2004). Despite

    considerable effort by the international community to tackle this problem, success has been

    limited; a different approach is clearly needed. Community-driven development is easier to

    sustain, but the technology to facilitate the shift of power has not been developed. The

    monitoring of water quality is a case in point; laboratories are centralised and portable

    testing kits based on Membrane Filtration are too expensive (around 1000) for most

    communities to afford. The purpose of this project is two-fold:

    (i) To examine water supply, sanitation and hygiene in rural areas of developingcountries and determine whether bacteriological water testing is appropriate for

    this context. And if there is a need;

    (ii) To develop an affordable and easy to use bacteriological water testing device thatenables widespread water quality monitoring in rural areas.

    Is water testing appropriate?

    An initial literature review reinforced the need for water testing:

    Surveillance and verification of drinking water quality in small community water supplies is

    recognised as an essential activity; however it remains potentially complex and expensiveInternational network on small community water supply management

    Alice Springs, Australia July 2005

    However, further exploration cast doubts on the appropriateness of water testing. A

    combination of case studies, interviews and a thorough literature review were used to

    establish the need for water testing, assess its limitations and gain a better understanding ofthe context.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | Technical Abstract iii

    Table of ContentsTechnical Abstract ................................................................................................................. i

    List of Figures ................................................................................................................. iiv

    List of Tables .................................................................................................................. iiv

    List of Boxes ..................................................................................................................... v

    Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... v

    1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1

    2 Summary of the Project .................................................................................................... 3

    3 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 6

    4 Part I: Exploratory Research ........................................................................................... 10

    4.1 Case Studies ............................................................................................................. 10

    4.2 Significance of Water Quality .................................................................................. 104.3 Alternative Measures ............................................................................................... 14

    4.4 Can Testing Lead to Action? ..................................................................................... 16

    4.5 Evaluation of Current Water Testing Practices ........................................................ 17

    4.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 22

    5 Part II: Constructive Research ......................................................................................... 24

    5.1 Determining Requirements ..................................................................................... 24

    5.2 Critical Evaluation of the Aquatest Prototype ......................................................... 27

    5.3 Experimental methods ............................................................................................. 28

    5.4 Concepts and Their Evaluation ................................................................................ 39

    6 Final Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 41

    6.1 Findings .................................................................................................................... 41

    6.2 Recommendations and Further Work ..................................................................... 42

    6.3 Critical Evaluation of the Project ............................................................................. 42

    7 Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 43

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | Technical Abstract iv

    List of Figures

    Figure 1: Areas of Risk for Travellers Diarrhoea ................................................................. 1

    Figure 2: Rotavirus distribution ........................................................................................... 1

    Figure 3: Methodology Flow Diagram ................................................................................. 7

    Figure 4: Faecal-Oral transmission paths ........................................................................... 11Figure 5: Categories of monitoring and interventions ...................................................... 14

    Figure 6: Hydrogen Sulphide test ...................................................................................... 19

    Figure 7: IDEXX Quantitray 2000 ....................................................................................... 20

    Figure 8: Schematic of the relationship between indicator groups .................................. 21

    Figure 9: Requirements Capture ........................................................................................ 24

    Figure 10: Functional Diagram ........................................................................................... 24

    Figure 11: Functional analysis of incubation ..................................................................... 25

    Figure 12: Incubation temperature and time to get a result with the H2S test ................ 25

    Figure 13: Model of Aquatest first device prototype ........................................................ 27

    Figure 14: Likelihood plots for a single dilution with fifty wells. ....................................... 31Figure 15: Discrimination between threshold values using Monte Carlo ......................... 33

    Figure 16: Heating and heat storage options that were considered ................................. 35

    Figure 17: Incubation using body heat .............................................................................. 35

    Figure 18: Bessel Function ................................................................................................. 38

    Figure 19: Experiments to determine critical radius ......................................................... 38

    Figure 20: Equivalence between empty submerged tube and suspended filled tube ...... 38

    Figure 21: Final concept waterjet demonstration model .................................................. 40

    Figure 22: Final design concept CAD drawing ................................................................... 40

    Figure 23: Pipettes or sterile syringe ................................................................................. 40

    Figure 24: Graph of Coefficient of Variation ...................................................................... 45Figure 25: Plots demonstrating the Most Probable Range ............................................... 46

    Figure 26: Random number allocation .............................................................................. 46

    List of TablesTable 1: Comparison of deductive and inductive research ................................................. 6

    Table 2: Criteria for water testing to be considered appropriate ....................................... 9

    Table 3: Summary of Case Studies ..................................................................................... 10

    Table 4: Description of water testing methods ................................................................. 17

    Table 5: Evaluation of testing kits against criteria ............................................................. 20

    Table 6: Problem Definition ............................................................................................... 24Table 7: Requirements Specification ................................................................................. 26

    Table 8: Advantages of MPNS over MF ............................................................................. 27

    Table 9: Statistics Nomenclature ....................................................................................... 29

    Table 10: Statistical assumptions ....................................................................................... 29

    Table 11: Discrimination between example threshold values for a 50ml sample ............ 33

    Table 12: Morphological Chart .......................................................................................... 39

    Table 13: Case Study Findings ............................................................................................ 44

    Table 14: Measures of Uncertainty ................................................................................... 45

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | Technical Abstract v

    List of Boxes

    Box 1: The Aquatest Initiative

    Box 2: Occupancy Theory

    Acronyms

    HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome

    IWA International Water Association

    JMP Joint Monitoring Program

    MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    MPN Most Probable Number

    MPN Most Probable Number

    MPNMD MPN-Multiple Dilution

    MPNS MPN-Sample Subdivision

    MTF Multiple Tube FermentationUNICEF United Nations Children's Fund

    WHO World Health Organisation

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 1 Introduction 1

    1 Introduction

    1.1 Motivation

    The motivation for the project is the scale and severity of disease related to problems of

    poor water quality in developing countries. According to estimates 1.1 billion people in

    developing countries do not have access to an improved supply of water; of these 84%

    live in rural areas (JMP, 2006). Faecally contaminated water is one of the main transmission

    routes of infectious diseases and poses a major threat to human health. Every year 1.8

    million people are killed by diarrhoeal disease resulting from a lack of clean water,

    inadequate sanitation and poor hygiene. Ninety percent of these are children under the age

    of five (WHO, 2004).

    These figures are likely to underestimate the true extent of the problem as a significant

    proportion of the disease goes unrecorded (IWA, 2003); they also overlook the morbidity

    caused by diarrhoeal disease which is aggravated by restricted access to healthcare,

    malnutrition and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Diarrhoeal disease primarily affects those with

    undeveloped or weakened immune systems: children, the elderly and HIV/AIDS suffers (and

    travellers). Water-borne diseases are often perceived as an entirely developing country

    problem (fig. 1). They are also affected by climate and are particularly prevalent in tropical

    countries; the warmer, wetter and more humid climates tending to exacerbate problems

    with water quality and sanitation (fig. 2).

    Figure 1: Areas of Risk for Travellers Diarrhoea(Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 2008)

    Figure 2: Rotavirus distribution of cases. Each point represents500 out of a total of 800,000 yearly deaths (Glass, 1997)

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 1 Introduction 2

    1.2 Approach

    A new approach to monitoring is needed

    Despite considerable effort and investment over the years, the international agenda to

    improve water and sanitation has not seen the success expected. Furthermore, it seems

    unlikely that the Millennium Development Goal for water (#7 Target 10: halving the

    number of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water) will be met in many

    countries the number of people without access in Sub-Saharan Africa is in fact increasing

    (JMP, 2006).

    As noted by the World Health Organisation the top down approach has limitations:

    While global estimates of coverage will remain important, local capacity to generate and

    use information will be a vital part of the monitoring effort (WHO, 2008)

    The most sustainable approach would be to reduce the dependence of the poor on external

    support through community-based or driven development. In many cases the infrastructure

    and technology to facilitate this shift of power has not been made available; one area which

    is particularly lacking is the monitoring of water supplies. This project assesses one way of

    monitoring water quality: bacteriological water testing referred to as water testing below.

    Water testing

    Bacteriological water contamination comes from many sources much of which has little

    sanitary significance. The purpose of water testing is to detect recent faecal contamination

    (Hutton, 1983) and identify water that is unfit for drinking.

    It is not practical to routinely test for all pathogenic micro-organisms that might be in

    drinking water; instead tests should detect bacteria that are indicative of faecal pollution.

    Faecal-oral disease transmission is responsible for the spread of water-borne disease and

    therefore the presence of these indicator micro-organisms is thought to give a good

    assessment of the health risk posed by drinking water. If indicator bacteria are not present

    then the water is deemed safe to drink. The three indicators that are often used are

    coliforms and more specifically thermotolerant coliforms or Escherichia coli (known as

    E.coli). Bacterial densities are usually given as a number per 100ml the volume of waterusually tested.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 2 Summary of the Project 3

    1.4 Project Objectives

    (i) To examine water supply, sanitation and hygiene in rural areas of developingcountries and determine whether water testing is appropriate in this context. And if

    there is a need;

    (ii) To develop a low-cost and easy to use bacteriological water testing device thatenables widespread water quality monitoring in rural areas of developing countries.

    2 Summary of the Project

    Familiarity with a low-cost water test developed at Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    (MIT) led the author to the initial conclusion that an appropriate water test could be

    produced for a fraction of the current price. Experience using this kit at a school in

    Tocantins, Central Brazil reinforced the perceived need for monitoring water quality. The

    boarding school (Fundao Bradesco Canuan) wanted to continue testing water as an

    educational exercise in nearby communities, but was unable to because the test relies on

    several consumables that are expensive and not available in rural areas (Section 6.3).

    A brief literature review at the start of the project supported the need for low-cost water

    testing (see quote above), however as the project progressed the benefits of water testing

    were increasingly called into question. The initial proposal for the project was to further

    develop the work carried out on the MIT water testing kit and to make it suitable for

    community use. It quickly became clear that whilst this would result in a relatively low-cost

    kit (at around 1/10 of the cost of commercially available testing kits such as DelAgua) it

    would remain out of the reach of people earning less than $2 a day. A previous 4th

    year

    project (Gordon, 2006) had followed this path, achieving only incremental improvements to

    the low-cost kit.

    Surveillance and verification of drinking water quality in small community watersupplies is recognised as an essential activity; however it remains potentially complex

    and expensiveInternational network on small community water supply management

    Alice Springs, Australia July 2005

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 2 Summary of the Project 4

    Part I: Is water testing appropriate for rural water supplies?

    In light of the limitations of such a project, contact was made with organisations for which

    an appropriate test could be developed or where the issues of water quality could be

    researched. The first of these was the Karen Hilltribes Trust, a charity which builds gravity-

    fed water supplies in Northern Thailand. The charity was contacted with the intention of

    designing a low-cost water test that was appropriate for the Karen (one of the ethnic hill

    tribes). Telephone conversations and interviews with the head of the charity led to several

    interesting findings and the overall conclusion was that water testing was not appropriate

    for the Karen. There were very good reasons for this including:

    Mountain springs have little to no contamination and with adequate treatment(Biosand filtration) the water was known to be clean.

    Volunteers had attempted to conduct water testing for the charity, but it had beenplagued by procedural difficulties and inconclusive results.

    Attempts to get in contact with organisations in Northern Mozambique where water quality

    problems are particularly acute (and because the author speaks Portuguese) were also

    unsuccessful. It became clear that research would have to be conducted in the UK and

    would have to rely primarily on secondary sources.

    It was decided to build on these unexpected findings, explore case studies from secondary

    sources and to conduct a thorough literature review in order to establish when water

    testing is appropriate. The initial research questions were:

    1 Where does water testing fit into strategies for the (improvement of) provision of cleandrinking water?

    2 Is testing appropriate? If so when, and what can it achieve?3 What are the most important factors to measure? What are the best ways to do these?The case study research highlighted further concerns (technical and socio-political) and even

    called into question the basic assumptions on which water testing is based ( Section 4.2.1).

    Interviews and secondary sources supported these findings. Whilst water testing is seen as

    inappropriate in several circumstances, it has been found that there is still a pressing need

    for a low-cost device (Section 4.6.2).

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 5

    Part II: Aquatest

    In January 2008 contact was established with the Head of the Aquatest Initiative, Dr.

    Stephen Gundry (Box 1). Working for Aquatest marked a significant change in the direction

    of the project and greatly increased both its scope and potential. Large-scale manufacture

    together with the development of a new field testing kit opened up the possibility of

    producing a device at a cost that will be affordable to those in need. The research areas

    agreed with Dr. Gundry were:

    - Determining requirements for the device- Evaluating methods for incubating the device- Developing design concepts

    With the results of the research outlined in Part I and criticisms of water testing in mind,

    work began on these tasks (Section 5). And in addition, a statistical model was developed to

    ascertain the number of wells and volumes needed to discriminate between a given set of

    risk levels (Section 5.3.1).

    Box 1: The Aquatest Initiative

    Aquatest is a collaborative effort to design and disseminate a low-cost water testing kit for

    developing countries. It is led by the University of Bristol and collaborators include WHO, UC

    Berkeley and the University of Cape Town and Indian Participants.

    With support from the Gates Foundation ($13.1 Million), they aim to develop a small single-

    use device for an ambitious cost of $0.10. The test is to be used by water professionals and

    communities themselves. It is hoped that within 10 years, low-cost water testing devices

    will be widely used in 80% of developing countries (Aquatest website).

    The first prototypes will be field tested in India and South Africa in 2009. Distribution and

    Licensing of the technology will be led by PATH, an organisation that has experience with the

    disposable syringe.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 3 Methodology 6

    3 Methodology

    most people become experienced with one type of study and then stick to it, safely and

    unadventurously(Hakim, 1992)

    This project combines both deductive and inductive research: the former primarily in the

    first half, the latter predominantly in the second. The two approaches are compared in

    Table 1. The main weakness of the deductive approach, in which engineers are traditionally

    trained, is that it eliminates the possibility of unanticipated findings (Eishenhardt, 1989).

    Table 1: Comparison of deductive and inductive research

    Deductive Inductive

    Starts from General Theory

    Form specific hypotheses

    Numerical or statistical

    Starts from Observations

    Identify Patterns

    Textual

    Narrow

    Testing and confirmation

    Open-ended

    Explanation of reasons

    Familiarity with the MIT water testing kit meant that approaching the problem with a new

    perspective was of utmost importance. Inductive approaches helped to avoid coming up

    with theories at the outset. In working for the Aquatest Initiative it is particularly important

    to avoid advocacy; only through questioning the benefits of water testing could substantive

    research be produced (Hakim, 1992). The methodology used is shown schematically in

    figure 3 on the next page.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 3 Methodology 7

    Figure 3: Methodology Flow Diagram

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 3 Methodology 8

    3.1 Part I: Exploratory Research

    Research was conducted predominantly through the use of inductive approaches: case

    studies, interviews and a thorough literature review.

    Case studies were central to the first stages of the project. Theory-building case study

    research is appropriate in the early stages of research on a topic or toprovide freshness in

    perspective to an already researched topic (Eishenhardt, 1989). It can be seen that both of

    these applied to this research project: a fresh perspective on water testing was needed and

    little research had been done to establish whether tests are appropriate for use in rural

    areas of developing countries. Analysis was carried out in two parts: (i) individual case-

    analysis and (ii) searching for cross-case patterns. Case studies guided the literature reviewand highlighted many issues with water testing.

    Interviews were informal. They ranged from telephone interviews with the head of the

    Karen Hilltribes Trust (KHT) to discussions with experienced Water and Sanitation and Public

    Health engineers. Several meetings were arranged with the Head of the Aquatest initiative.

    TheLiterature Reviewhad several purposes: (i) to gain an understanding of the wider issues

    surrounding water quality in developing countries, (ii) to validate the case-study research

    findings and (iii) to pursue lines of enquiry. An appreciation of the wider context of water

    testing was seen as vital to ensure that the monitoring process is adequate, appropriate and

    most of all informative.

    3.2 Part II: Constructive Research

    The constructive research was heavily influenced by two sources:

    Good Design Practice for Medical Devices and Equipment(Shefelbine, 2002) The Inclusive Design Toolkit(Clarkson, 2007).

    Conventional engineering design process focuses on conceptual design: where the most

    important decisions are made (Cross, 1994). The central preoccupation is seen to be not

    missing good ideas. In contrast, the primary focus of the process followed in this study was

    to establish the real need and ensure that the design solves a genuine problem.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 3 Methodology 9

    3.3 Criteria for Success: Defining Appropriate

    It is interesting to note that whilst the Aquatest device will support grassroots development

    it goes against much of current development thinking. It will be mass manufactured and the

    technology is not easily understood by the user (they are not able to take control of the

    technology). The central notion of intermediate technology (from which the term

    appropriate technology was popularised) is that it addresses the need for labour intensive

    rather than capital intensive work; hence lending itself to small-scale, decentralised

    workplaces (Schumacher, 1973). The definition of appropriate has changed in the light of

    some very successful projects that have used modern mass-manufactured goods: examples

    include mobile telephones in Bangladesh and LEDs for rural lighting.

    In this report, appropriate simply means that it is suited to the specific needs of the users

    and the demands of the context (in this case rural areas of developing countries). The

    following criteria (Table 2) were developed during the project and have been used to

    determine whether water testing is appropriate in this context.

    Table 2: Criteria for water testing to be considered appropriate

    1. Relevant Meaningful and sensitive to the users education, aptitude andorganising skill. Relevant to their

    2. Significant Of sanitary significance established link to health outcomes3. Worthwhile it must be possible to use information from the test and this

    information should not be readily obtained from another source;

    4. Affordable It must be low-cost to run and have a small upfront cost5. Independent It should not be reliant on external support, or materials that are not

    available locally.

    6. EnvironmentallySustainable

    It must not generate excessive waste at the point of use.

    7. Scalable It must be scalable to facilitate widespread monitoring of drinkingwater

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 10

    4 Part I: Exploratory Research

    Is Water Testing Appropriate for Rural Water Supplies?

    4.1 Case StudiesTable 3: Summary of Case Studies

    Organisation Project Location Abbreviation

    Karen Hilltribes Trust Gravity-fed water supply Northwestern Thailand CS1

    Escola Bradesco

    Solar water disinfection and

    water testing using the low-cost

    MIT testing kit

    Central Brazil CS2

    Student ProjectProposed water quality

    assessmentTolla Islands, Indonesia

    CS3

    Vigyam AshramWater testing using the multiple

    tube fermentation method.Pabal, India

    CS4

    Table 3 summarises the case studies used at the beginning of the project. The first two are

    the authors own observations and experience and have been described briefly in the

    summary. The last two were gathered from secondary sources and personal

    communication. Conclusions from the case study research are given in theAppendix 7.2.

    4.2 Significance of Water Quality

    The extent of diseases related to water, sanitation and hygiene was described in the

    introduction. A question that needs to be asked is: how much of the disease is attributable

    to water quality? This has major implications for how diarrhoeal disease is tackled globally,

    but at the community level and for this project it needs to be asked in order to justify water

    quality testing which is inherently linked to interventions improving water quality.

    4.2.1 The Importance of Water-borne Disease

    The faecal-oral transmission route (fig. 4) is complex and there are many ways for

    pathogens to be passed from one person to the next. An important question for anyone

    trying to reduce diarrhoeal disease through environmental interventions is: which are the

    dominant transmission paths?

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 11

    Figure 4: Faecal-Oral transmission paths (Prss, 2002)

    Before examining the evidence, faecal-oral diseases need to be classified as water-borne or

    water-washed(Feachem, 1978):

    Water-borne diseases are those that are transmitted when contaminated water is drunk.

    They can be prevented by improving water quality.Water-washeddiseases are caused by water scarcity; an inadequate supply of water inhibits

    personal hygiene: washing hands and food. Water-washed diseases can be prevented by

    increasing quantity of water without improving the quality.

    If all of the diarrhoeal disease was transmitted via the water-washed route, as was

    suggested by Prof. Cairncross in an interview, water quality interventions (and water

    testing) would not be worthwhile. A causative link between water quality interventions and

    diarrhoeal disease needs to be established in order to justify water testing. For this we turn

    to Epidemiology, the study of the factors affecting health in a population.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 12

    Review of the epidemiological evidence for water quality

    Whilst there are many studies of water quality interventions, most have methodological

    flaws and decisions cannot be based upon them. For example in the most recent meta-

    analysis Clasen et al. (2007) rejected 947 out of a total of 979 studies reviewed. Thesemethodological problems have been well documented (Blum D, 1983).

    Until recently, there was consensus that water quality and access were both important

    means of reducing diarrhoeal disease; access was seen as more important than

    bacteriological quality (Jensen, 2004). Interest in Household Water Treatment and Storage

    (HWTS) has led to several new studies showing strong support for water quality

    interventions in the household. In their review Fewtrell et al. (2005) found that water

    quality interventions at the household gave a mean reduction of 39% in morbidity, whilst

    those at the source only achieved 11%. Furthermore Clasen et al. (2007) found that water

    quality interventions need not be combined with hygiene and sanitation to be effective.

    Despite these encouraging findings, Prof. Cairncross is convinced that the water-washed

    route is dominant water scarcity, not quality is responsible for the transmission of

    diarrhoea. Of the four blinded studies reviewed in the paper he co-authored with Clasen

    (2007) none showed reductions in diarrhoeal disease. Intervention studies which are not

    blinded are liable to bias both because the researchers hope to show their treatment is

    effective and because communities are likely to understate their disease because they are

    grateful.

    There are two main camps:

    1. Those that advocate water quality interventions in the household;2. Those that advocate greater access to water;

    In conclusion, the epidemiological evidence for water quality interventions is easily

    challenged; there is no consensus as to the relative importance of these transmission

    routes. The relative predominance is likely to be dependent on many factors, e.g. in drier

    areas scarcity is likely to be dominant; in wetter and more populous areas waterborne

    disease may be significant.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 13

    4.2.2 Safe Water

    There are two common principles in definitions of safe water: (i) that the water is drinkable

    and (ii) that it poses little risk to health. A further principle needs to be added for a safe

    water supply: access to adequate quantities. As was seen in the previous section, there is

    considerable debate on the relative importance of quality and quantity.

    The guideline value for bacteriological quality of drinking water is 0 Coliforms (or E.coli) per

    100ml (WHO, 2006). While only a guideline value, governments often set this as a standard

    to be met by all supplies despite not being affordable. This target is not achievable in most

    rural areas of developing countries and does not encourage the incremental improvements

    in quality and access that are needed to reduce diarrhoeal disease.

    Exposure-response

    Given the lack of consensus surrounding transmission paths, it is no surprise that there is

    little data on exposure-response curves. Drinking water quality testing in the west has been

    focused on ensuring the efficacy of treatment processes rather than measuring a health risk

    thus not demanding research on the quantitative relationship between indicator density

    and health outcomes. The lack of evidence is apparent when compared to the vast literature

    on the health risks associated with bathing waters. It also explains the WHOs unwillingness

    to suggest suitable targets for rural areas of developing countries despite much criticism.

    In conclusion, there is a real need for more research before quantitative testing is

    meaningful for people drinking water from sources which are not disinfected. This is also

    needed for appropriate water quality standards to be set to readdress the bias towards

    water quality interventions described in the next section.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 14

    4.3 Alternative Measures

    Figure 5: Categories of monitoring and interventions

    4.3.1 Monitoring

    Health Outcomes are the most desirable indicators because they are directly what we aim

    to improve through interventions. Monitoring of the source and intervening processes is

    indirect and therefore only useful if causal links between the measure taken and the desired

    outcomes can be established. The main problem with measures by outcome is that they do

    not usually identify actions that the community can take or locate sources of pollution.

    Cholera epidemics, when all water is suspect and should be boiled are an obvious exception.

    As was found in section 4.2 even with a rigorous epidemiological study, it can be hard to

    isolate the impacts.

    If it was always possible to know by examining the source whether water is clean, then

    water testing would not be worthwhile. Unfortunately, in many cases you cannot tell

    whether water from a particular source is safe to drink, let alone whether it is clean at the

    point-of-use. This being said, there is much to be gained from perceptions of the quality of

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 4 Part I: Exploratory Research 15

    water sources, the type of source and treatment administered and the state of the water

    supply. It is not surprising that the open wells tested in Brazil (CS2) were heavily

    contaminated whereas the mountain springs in Northern Thailand (CS1) were clean.

    Sanitary surveys are a formalized means of assessing the environmental risks they usually

    constitute a series of questions with yes or no answers. A score, the number of yes

    answers gives an indication of the risk. Like perceptions of quality, the current forms do not

    necessarily correlate well with the actual contamination of the source. Region specific

    surveys can be developed once the importance of different risk factors is understood.

    Sanitary surveys are very important but require experience (Hofkes, 1983) and the user

    must be literate.

    One of the main advantages of a low-cost water test is that it can be used with little or no

    training and could therefore be scaled up rapidly. The main weakness of water testing is

    that it does not indicate possible sources of contamination or measures to improve water

    supplies. Combining water testing and sanitary surveys would overcome these difficulties,

    but it is not clear how this can be done without depending on expertise.

    4.3.2 Interventions

    Figure 5 shows that there are many interventions which can reduce the likelihood or

    severity of diarrhoeal disease. Preventative measures are more ethically acceptable than

    relying on treatment, especially when access to healthcare is limited (stores of Oral

    Rehydration Sachets are only currently reaching 38% of 0-5 year olds in the developing

    world (UNICEF, 2008)). Behavioural change in particular is often the most cost-effective way

    of reducing risk, but requires trained staff and is dependent on external support.

    It was generally accepted that too much emphasis has been put on water supplies

    (Thompson, 2001). Feachem (1978) suggests that donors and governments both have

    vested interests in water supply interventions and that there has been a degree of wishful

    thinking about the benefits. With the recent findings, HWTS are becoming increasingly

    popular and considerable efforts are being made in their development and dissemination.

    Their development has been spurred on by very positive results in recent intervention

    studies and the finding that water from improved sources is readily contaminated before

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    use. There are many HWTS, these include: chlorination, solar water disinfection and ceramic

    filters.

    Water testing can play a role in increasing awareness of disease transmission, hygiene and

    encouraging greater care for personal environment. This was its purpose in Brazil (CS2).

    However, it is primarily linked to interventions to improve water quality in particular

    HWTS.

    4.4 Can Testing Lead to Action?

    Whether water tests will lead to action to improve water quality depends on many factors.

    The technology to treat water is available and in many cases affordable: it is a matter of

    priorities, preferences and whether the test can be understood.

    Priorities: Many people may not perceive diarrhoea as being more than an inconvenience

    unless it is severe and life-threatening (Howard, 2002).Water quality is often a high priority

    for women, especially mothers, but it is a much lower priority for men. Immunity means

    that it is easy for adults to perceive the risk of drinking water as low. If water quality is a low

    priority, it is very unlikely that a water test will be bought no matter how low-cost it is.

    Interpretation:As was found in several of the case studies, many people do not share the

    scientific concept of disease. Waterborne diseases are particularly prone to supernatural

    beliefs. Unlike natural causes, you can drink bad water for a while before getting ill. There

    is also the difficulty of blaming water when there are so many other transmission routes. If

    the technology is not easily understood by the user, there is a high risk of misinterpretation.

    These will need to be addressed by field testing and through careful design.

    Preferences: Chlorination is heralded as a simple solution, however many people do not like

    the change in taste. As noted by Zoeteman (1980) the physical characteristics of water are

    often the most important for the user. More contaminated sources are drunk because of a

    better taste or because they are more convenient.

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    4.5 Evaluation of Current Water Testing Practices

    4.5.1 Methods

    The traditional method for determining faecal-contamination is multiple tube fermentation.It will be referred to as most probable number by dilution (MPND) to distinguish it from the

    method used in the Aquatest Device which is MPN by subdivision (MPNS). MPND is a

    laboratory based method requiring substantial quantities of reagent, glassware, distilled

    water, an autoclave and large incubator (Tab. 4). Laboratory testing is particularly

    problematic for remote areas of developing countries - transportation is unreliable and time

    consuming making it difficult to analyse samples within the recommended 6hrs (WHO,

    2006). It is also much more expensive, requires high calibre staff and the distance (physically

    and organizationally) between central laboratories and rural villages means that it takes a

    long time before remedial action can take place (Hutton, 1983).

    The development of the Membrane Filtration (MF) and more recently chromagenic reagents

    have made field testing kits feasible. The incubation requirement is greatly reduced; for MF

    a single Petri dish needs incubation whereas many test tubes need incubation in the case of

    MPND. MF is used by almost all commercial field testing kits, with the exception ofPresence/absence (P/A) tests which are a simplified form of MPND compromising a single

    undiluted tube.

    Table 4: Description of water testing methods

    Membrane

    Filtration

    (MF)

    Water is passed through a membrane (typically 45m pores) leaving the bacteria

    on the filter. The filter paper is placed in a Petri dish and broth that selects bacteria

    of sanitary significance is added. The Petri dish is then incubated (24hrs) to allow

    these bacteria to form visible colonies. These colonies are then counted to find thenumber of indicator bacteria (Colony forming units- CFUs) that were present in the

    water sample. If there are many CFUs it may become difficult to count; water that

    is expected to be highly contaminated can be diluted prior to filtration in order to

    lower the number of CFUs to within the counting range (around 100 CFU).

    Most

    Probable

    Number by

    Dilution

    Measured volumes of the sample water are diluted and pipetted into a series of

    sterile tubes containing broth. The dilution series is tailored to the expected

    concentration of bacteria in the sample. Test tubes are incubated for (24-48hrs

    depending on the broth used) after which the bacterial density can be inferred

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    (MPND) from the tubes which show growth. The most likely number of organisms is called

    the most probable number and Standard Tables are available for most dilution

    series.

    Presence/

    Absence (P/A)

    Presence Absence is effectively MPND reduced to a single undiluted tube. The

    presence absence test does not provide a quantitative determination.

    Most

    Probable

    Number by

    Subdivision

    (MPNS)

    This is similar to the MPND method, but avoids dilution. Instead the sample is

    mixed with the reagent and then split into small wells. The bacterial density of the

    sample is inferred from the number of wells showing positive growth. Standard

    tables are not always available because the configurations differ from MT-MPN.

    4.5.2 Equipment

    There is a wide variety of water testing kits on the market; however most are intended for

    users in developed countries. Examples of commercially available field testing equipment

    specifically designed for use in developing countries include the DelAgua water testing kit,

    H2S test and in development the MIT water testing kit. IDEXX Quantitray is also described

    as this was the inspiration behind the Aquatest approach.

    DelAgua (MF)

    Developed at the University of Surrey in collaboration with Oxfam, DelAgua is probably the

    best known portable water testing kit. The kit was designed primarily for international aid

    workers and in particular humanitarian emergencies and reflects their needs. In addition to

    measuring bacteriological contamination, the testing kit can measure a variety of chemical

    properties of the water including residual Chlorine. The kit costs a total of 1327 (Institute,

    2008) and approximately 0.30 per test. Even with significant subsidies it can rarely be

    afforded by local NGOs, let alone communities or households. The kit is cumbersome

    (weighing 10kg) and, requires training (3 days), several, often imported, consumables

    (methanol, filters, pads and reagents) and an electronic incubator - all barriers to its

    widespread use. The DelAgua kit is only suitable for users conducting regular testing.

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    Hydrogen Sulphide Test (P/A)

    At a cost of around Rs. 10 (about 12p) (IWP, 2007) this test is

    the most affordable water test available. It was designed not to

    require incubation and has many advantages over the MF basedtesting kits. The major limitation with the H2S method is that it

    only indicates whether bacteria are present or not it does not

    give a quantitative estimate. This is useful for ensuring that

    chlorinated supplies are working effectively because you would

    expect no indicator bacteria to be present. However, most rural

    water supplies are not disinfected and have some level of faecal contamination: P/A tests

    condemn too many supplies (IWA, 2003). Another problem with the H2S test is that it

    detects Hydrogen Sulphide producing spores, some of which do not indicate faecal

    pollution. For this reason it is not recommended by WHO (2002) a more recent study

    indicates that H2S only correlates with E.coli for concentrations of over 1000/100ml (Gupta,

    2007).

    MIT Low-cost water testing kit (MF)

    The MIT low-cost water testing kit is based on MF. The filtration device is compromised of a

    baby bottle and syringe. Sterilisation is avoided by using disposable sterile inserts. The need

    for reliable electric supply for incubation is circumvented by a phase change incubator: a

    primary alcohol is used as a heat store and releases heat at a constant temperature as it

    solidifies. Experience in Brazil suggests that the sterile inserts and reagents are not readily

    available. Furthermore, the reagent used in Brazil (Millipore mColiblue24) is expensive and

    requires refrigeration clearly an alternative is needed if the testing kit is to be independentof electricity.

    Figure 6: H2S test

    (courtesy of Susan Murcott)

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    IDEXX Quantitray (MPNS)

    A serial dilution is equivalent to splitting a sample of water

    into small wells of varying sizes. This is the basis of the

    Quantitray procedure (named MPNS in this report). This is arelatively new development in water testing practices and is

    more accurate and easier to use than MF. However,

    Quantitray is by no means appropriate for rural areas. It

    needs an electronic incubator and heat sealer.

    4.5.3 Evaluation of the Testing Kits

    Table 5: Evaluation of testing kits against criteria

    Criteria DelAgua MIT H2S MPNS

    1 Relevant no training no training yes Yes

    2

    Significant yes yes

    not

    recommended by

    WHO

    if E.coli or

    thermotolerant

    3Worthwhile yes yes

    condemns too

    many supplies

    if counts are

    within the range.

    4

    Affordable no no yes

    can be

    manufactured at

    low-cost5 Independent no no yes Yes

    6 Environmentally

    sustainableyes

    uses many

    consumables

    if reused or

    recycled

    if reused or

    recycled

    7 Scalable no no Yes Yes

    The review of current testing equipment suggests that it will be possible to use the principle

    behind Quantitray (MPNS) to develop a water test at price close to that of the H 2S test and

    is able to discriminate between contaminated sources.

    Figure 7: IDEXX Quantitray 2000

    (www.idexx.com)

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    4.5.4 Choice of Indicator Bacteria and Reagents

    Water contains many bacteria, most of which are harmless. The ability to isolate particular

    groups of bacteria that are indicative of a health risk is of particular importance to the

    development of a water test that meets the needs of the user. In the west, it is acceptable

    to use the Coliform (Total Coliforms) group because testing is used to measure the efficacy

    of treatment not to gauge health risk.

    An important distinction has to be made between an indicator and an index. This has

    implications for the amount of information that can be derived from microbiological water

    tests.Indicators are bacteria whose presence indicates faecal contamination. An index is an

    indicator whose concentration is directly related to

    the health risk(Gleeson, 1997).

    While many alternatives have been suggested,

    Escherichia coli (E.coli) is recognised as the best

    indicator of faecal contamination (WHO, 2006). It

    is by far the most common bacteria in the human

    gut (up to 109

    per gram of faeces(Gleeson, 1997))

    and is found in warm-blooded animal faeces. Figure 8: Schematic of the relationship betweenindicator groups

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    4.6 Conclusions

    4.6.1 Discussion of the Limitations of Water Testing

    It is much harder to justify quantitative water testing than was expected at the start of theproject. The main criticism of water testing is the limited evidence supporting the link

    between indicator densities and health risk. To justify quantitative assessments of water

    quality, the link needs to be firmly established.

    Information from the water test may be used in hygiene education, but its primary use is to

    ensure the bacteriological safety of water in the household. It is therefore strongly linked to

    HWST and avoiding source-to-point of use contamination. Care must be taken not to further

    the water quality agenda over the other preventative measures that need support: access,

    hygiene education and sanitation.

    Whether water testing will be a priority for individuals and communities and the value they

    will put on testing is dependent on many factors these will have to be determined by field

    studies. Experience in Brazil (CS2) suggests that there will be resistance where the test is not

    readily understood by the community or if the scientific concept of disease is not shared.

    There is a high risk of misinterpretation if the user is expected to understand the result, but

    not the means by which it is found.

    4.6.2 Establishing a Need for Water Testing

    There is no way for households and communities in rural areas of developing countries to be

    sure that the water they drink is safe. Whilst there is much to be gained from indigenous

    knowledge, perceptions of quality can be misleading; they could be exposing themselves to

    an unnecessary risk of illness. Water testing is attractive as one way of addressing the

    question: Is this water safe to drink?

    Combined with sanitary surveys, water testing would provide an effective means of

    monitoring rural water supplies where contamination is expected. This would allow users to

    both detect faecal contamination and identify its source. It would enable communities and

    individuals to take control over their own water supply; not to rely solely on foreign aid or

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    the stretched government agencies which have clearly failed, in many cases, to provide

    water that is suitable for consumption.

    Several bacteriological water tests are commercially available, but none is suitable for

    community level testing. Current tests are both too complex and expensive or they

    condemn too many supplies to be of use in this context. Indeed, little has changed since

    Mara (1973) noted that:

    In the majority of existing water supplies in developing countries (particularly in rural areas)

    facilities for the bacteriological examination of the finished water are absent.

    There is a real need for widespread monitoring of water supplies in rural areas. Watertesting could offer a means in which to do this in an affordable way and with less demand

    for training than other monitoring methods. There is a clear need for people who are

    looking after children, the elderly or immune-compromised to assess water quality. Those

    most at risk need to be able to identify ways to lower their exposure to the faecal pollution.

    In the opinion of the author, this need justifies the work in the second half of the project:

    working with Aquatest to develop a low cost water testing kit.

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    5 Part II: Constructive Research

    Development of an affordable water test

    5.1 Determining RequirementsFollowing Shefelbine (2002) there are four processes that need to be carried out before the

    requirements specification can be completed (fig. 9).In the second half of this report, the

    focus of the design is on what is seen as the primary user: mothers. Uses by professionals

    and the trade-offs for greater coverage are also discussed.

    Table 6: Problem Definition

    Figure 9: Requirements Capture (Shefelbine, 2002)

    Figure 10: Functional Diagram

    WHO? Individuals and water professionals

    (Village user, Local water engineer,

    community leaders and health workers,

    household).

    WHAT? Water quality test that is low cost,

    portable, reliable

    WHY? To test bacteriological quality of water

    WHERE? Rural areas of developing countries: at

    the source, in the home or in a clinic

    WHEN? When water quality unknown and for

    regular monitoring of supplies

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    5.1.1 An example of functional analysis: Incubation

    Figure 11: Functional analysis of incubation

    The Aquatest initiative is in the process of developing a reagent for E. coli which gives a

    visual signal without the need for UV light. Since the reagent has not been developed yet

    the influence of temperature on incubation time is not known. Growth models were

    reviewed, but it became clear that there were too many variables. An alternative approach

    is simply to use known results from the H2S test (fig. 12) as a basis for setting the

    requirements. As many of the H2S bacteria are E.coli, this is seen as a good approximation.

    Figure 12: Incubation temperature and time to get a result with the H2S test (J. Pillai, 1997)

    Requirement: Temperature shall not drop below 22C nor rise above 44C during the 36

    hours of incubation. The temperature should be close to 37C.

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    14 22 28 37 44

    Time(hours)

    Temperature (C)

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    5.1.2 Requirements Specification

    The full requirements specification is listed in Table 7. It is important to note that whenever

    possible, the requirements have been relaxed so that the device is not needlessly

    constrained.

    Table 7: Requirements Specification

    able to sample from all water supplies (accessible - at point of collection) D

    able to test intrinsic water quality W

    Representative encourages representative sampling W

    Aseptic sample is collected without being contaminated by the user D

    does not require more than one day of training. D

    no training required W

    Maintenance does not require maintenance by user W

    Ready Signal User given signal when when the test result is ready D

    InterpretableUser able to tell whether the water is suitable for drinking by (i) a normal healthy adult (ii)

    children under 5, the elderly and immune-compromised/HIV.D

    maintains a temperature of between 22 and 44C for a duration of at least 36 hours D

    incubation close to the optimal growth temperature 37 W

    users warned if the incubation has failed D

    Precision able to discriminate between thresholds (to be set based on epidemiological data) D

    Reliability gives the correct threshold 95% of the time when used correctly D

    Sensitivity sensitive to 10/100ml D

    sensitive to 5/100ml W

    Significant test for E.coli. Shall test for E.coli or Thermotolerant Coliforms (WHO) D

    Comparable help to prioritise the contamination problem W

    Waterproof not leak contents or be affected by dampness or humidity. D

    able to get the device to the regions where it will be used in a cost effective manner D

    small enough to fit in a pocket W

    no special storage requirements D

    shelflife of at least three months; if sold in boxes (3 + 2n months). W

    Independentnot reliant on sterilisation, electricity, distilled water or any other resource that is not

    availableD

    able to be dropped 2m onto rock without breaking D

    difficult for someone to open up unintentionally or intentionally by a child W

    resistant to shocks and vibrations during transport D

    reusable W

    not generate excessive waste D

    Portable easily carried to and from the source (upto 1km by foot). D

    Adaptable can be used in fixed laboratory incubators W

    less than $0.30 at full scale manufacture D

    $0.10 delivered to the customer, the Aquatest target price. W

    costing

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    Aquatest: An A

    5.2 Critical Evaluation

    It's a small, single-use devi

    electricity or skilled techni

    target manuf

    Figure 13: Mod

    1. The design is complicreaction (red) surrou

    efficient way of incub

    2. It is not certain wheth3. The choice of MPNS

    change needed to ma

    the most important o

    Table 8: Advantages of MPNS ove

    Lower Skill

    It is easy to cont

    laboratory worke

    individual practice

    1983). This is som

    Robens Institute

    Affordability MPSS is more affo

    ReliabilityThe assay is more

    growth of injured

    Range

    It is possible to t

    supplies this m

    dilution.

    fordable Water Test | 5 Part II: Constructive

    of the Aquatest Prototype

    e for testing water quality. It can be used in

    ians. It is being designed for use in developi

    ctured cost of 10 US cents.(Aquatest Web

    l of Aquatest first device prototype (Davis & Gundry, 200

    ated and it is unlikely to meet the cost tar

    ded by an insulating layer (yellow in fig. 1

    ting the sample.

    er this configuration is adequate.

    is appropriate to the requirements and r

    ke water testing affordable. It has many ad

    which are:

    r MF

    minate the samples when using MF and it requir

    should receive a weeks training and have an o

    before he undertakes membrane filter analyses (M

    ewhat of an exaggeration, but MF is not easy to u

    ffer a 3 day training courses for their DelAgua kit.

    dable than MF

    reliable because suspended growth inherently allow

    acteria (Fujioka, 1997).

    ailor the device to the concentrations that are ex

    ans it can detect higher concentrations than MF (

    Research 27

    the field, without

    g countries at a

    ite)

    7)

    et. An exothermic

    ) is clearly not an

    presents the step

    vantages over MF,

    s training a skilled

    pportunity for further

    junkin 1976, in Hutton

    se: by comparison the

    s the resuscitation and

    pected in rural water

    ax 200CFUs) without

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    5.3 Experimental methods

    5.3.1 Statistics for the Device

    Progress was hindered without results from the Aquatest Initiative describing theconfiguration of wells that were needed in the device. In order to develop the concepts and

    preliminary designs an appreciation of the how the design would affect the operational

    characteristics of the test was required.

    Two first observations can be drawn about MPNS:

    1. More information can be gained about the concentration for a given volume if thenumber of wells is increased.

    2. If there is at least one bacterium in the sample the device will show growth in atleast one of the wells. The sensitivity of the test is therefore related to the total

    volume of water in the sample.

    5.3.1.1 Relevance of the Statistics and Ease of Interpretation

    The test must be easily interpreted and the result relevant to the user. An MPN table: a

    chart which tabulates the most probable number (an estimate of the bacterial density) for

    each configuration of positive wells is clearly not appropriate.The user is not interested in a

    count rate, but rather an indication of the level of risk from which a decision will need to be

    made. Often, this will be a drink/dont drink decision.

    Both Quantitray 2000 and the Aquatest prototype have used wells of different sizes. This

    may be confusing as it is not intuitive that the largest wells are the least important. It is

    suggested that the wells ought to be the same size this will make interpretation easier and

    increase the information gained by the test.

    5.3.1.2 Literature Review

    There is an extensive literature surrounding the most probable number. At first efforts were

    focused on determining the most probable or most likely number, but have since turned to

    the more difficult matter of defining a measure of the uncertainty of bacterial counts using

    the method. It is a Standard Method and has been used widely in microbiology and

    medicine since 191 (McBride, 2005). However, approximate MPN calculations, rounding

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    conventions and different methods of calculating the confidence limits lead to considerable

    variability in the Standard Tables (McBride G. , 2003). The literature describes serial

    dilutions as used in MPNMD; this is equivalent to the method used in this project as long as

    the organisms are assumed to be randomly distributed.

    It is helpful to introduce some notation and review the assumptions on which the calculation

    of the MPN is based before describing the methods used:

    Table 9: Statistics Nomenclature

    R Number of wells

    r Number of positive wells

    s Number of sterile wells

    n Number of E. coli in sample

    V Total volume of sample

    v Volume of a single alquilot

    L (D|H) Likelihood of the data given the hypothesis

    Table 10: Statistical assumptions

    Assumption Description Comments

    Detects one

    or more

    organisms.

    If there is at least one organism

    there is an obvious change which

    can be clearly and consistently

    identified.

    There are many ways in which a test may fail

    to detect a viable organism. If the medium is poor

    it can require several bacteria and therefore

    underestimate contamination.

    Randomly

    distributed

    Bacteria are separate, not

    clustered and they do not repel

    each other

    Supposed to thoroughly mix the sample. It is

    possible to take a sub-sample that contains no

    bacteria, especially if concentrations are low.

    Poisson theory

    or

    Binomially

    distributed

    The volume examined is a

    relatively small portion of a large

    sample which had been

    thoroughly mixed such that the

    volume of each alquilot is small

    compared to the sample volume

    (v/V

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    5.3.1.3 Methods

    Calculating the MPN Using Occupancy TheoryEstimates for the Most Probable Number (Thomas 1942, Cochran 1950) are not suitable for

    large R or multiple dilutions (McBride, 2005). While Standard Tables, simple estimates and

    even an MPN Calculator (Blogett, 2003) are available the exact MPN had to be calculated.

    Only with the likelihood function could measures of uncertainty be determined.

    The likelihood functions were evaluated directly from Occupancy Theory (box 2) using

    Matlab. It is relatively computationally intensive and the code had to be sped up in order to

    calculate the likelihood functions within a reasonable time. This was achieved by creating

    lookup tables thus reducing the number of times slow functions (e.g. binomial[], ln[]) were

    called. Most Probable Number lookup tables were created to in order to evaluate the

    operational characteristics described in section 5.3.1.6. The lookup tables were compared to

    Standard tables to verify the technique.

    | , = 1

    Box 2: Occupancy Theory(David, 1962)

    If n bacteria are randomly distributed among R test tubes of equal volume, the likelihoodthat (R-r) tubes will not receive any of these bacteria and therefore remain sterile is:

    The Most Probable Number is the value of n that maximizes this likelihood.

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    Figure 14:Likelihood plots for a single dilution with fifty wells (top graph has seven positive wells, lower graph showing

    forty). The MPN is found by selecting the largest conditional likelihood. The plots demonstrate that the test is better at

    discriminating between small numbers of organisms - when many wells show growth the curve is broader.

    5.3.1.4 Measures of Uncertainty

    As demonstrated infig. 14, it is difficult to discriminate between MPNs when the majority of

    the wells show growth. An appreciation of the uncertainty introduced by the MPN

    technique is needed to design the test. This is much harder than determining the MPN and

    there is no exact way to calculate the uncertainty in the MPN result. In fact the confidence

    or credible intervals are subjective (McBride, 2003). One must make prior assumptions

    about the likelihood of contamination in order to determine a measure of uncertainty.

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    Typically a diffuse prior (uniform distribution of mean bacterial densities) is used. Counter to

    experience and intuition, this assumption implies that high concentrations are more likely to

    be found than low concentrations.

    McBride (2003) suggests that water testing lends itself to the Bayesian statistics. He

    assumes the experimentalist is concerned with the probability of a particular result being

    within a range. While this may be the case for scientific studies, when tests are to be

    compared with risk assessments they are firmly in the classical statistical philosophy. The

    device is looking for performance in the long run rather than being specific about the

    current result.

    5.3.1.6 Calculating Uncertainty

    The most traditional means of expressing uncertainty, the confidence interval, is not strictly

    appropriate for likelihoods and three alternatives were evaluated (Appendix 7.3). The

    Monte Carlo Method was suggested by Prof. Spiegelhalter as a means to determine the

    uncertainty of the measurement.

    Operational Characteristics: Monte Carlo

    From a risk profile, threshold values that the test should be able to discriminate between

    can be chosen. The values chosen are (based on examples in 2 nd edition WHO Guidelines

    Vol.3 (1993) pg. 78) are arbitrary: low risk (50/100ml) and high

    risk (>100/100ml).

    A Monte Carlo method was developed to examine the operational characteristics of

    different device designs. It is described in the Appendix. This also facilitated the examination

    of thresholds in line with the chosen risk levels: to establish how many wells are needed to

    distinguish between chosen E.coli concentrations.

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    Figure 15: Discrimination between threshold values using Monte Carlo a comparison of 25 and 50 wells with fixed total

    sample volume of 50ml

    Table 11: Discrimination between example threshold values for a 50ml sample

    Number

    of Wells

    Discrimination between 10

    and 100/100ml10 and 50/100ml 50 and 100/100ml

    5 Good Poor None

    10 Good Adequate Poor

    20 Good Good Poor

    25 Good Good Adequate

    50 Good Good Good

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    Findings and implications for the design

    1. The device is looking for assured quality in a large number of different water suppliesand thus requires a frequentist approach. We are not interested in the scientific

    measurement of the exact value of the MPN. The user is only interested in the

    extent of contamination of the water and the resultant health risk of drinking it.

    2. The MPN method is not a precise technique. When many wells show growth, there ispoor discrimination.

    3. There is a trade-off between complexity of test (both design and interpretation) andprecision. It is easier to interpret the device if all of the wells are the same size.

    4. The first prototype does not appear to be adequate for the purposes required.5. The high bacterial concentrations expected in source selection (often >1000/100ml)

    are a challenge for a device using MPN: the well sizes would have to be very small. It

    may be necessary to design two devices: one for assessing drinking water and

    treated supplies and the second for more contaminated supplies such as surface

    waters.

    5.3.2 Energy Strategy

    Purpose: to ensure bacterial growth and reliable results within a reasonable time.

    In Section 5.1.1 it was found that the temperature must remain within the range 23 to 44C.

    Growth is less sensitive than the precision of electronic incubators first led the author to

    believe. To maintain temperatures close to the optimal and within this range, several

    approaches were considered. These can broadly be termed low-tech and high-tech. The

    options for storing and accepting heat that were considered in this project are described

    below (fig. 16). Temperatures were recorded using an Omega 4-channel Datalogger in an

    environment fluctuating between 16 and 20C. Whilst these do not reflect tropical

    temperatures or diurnal variations, the results give a good indication of the approaches that

    are likely to be successful.

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    Figure 16: Heating and heat storage options that were considered

    5.3.2.2 Low-tech: Body Heat

    Body surface temperature is typically between 32 and 35C, higher on some areas of the

    body such as the armpits. It was soon realized that placing the device on the body gave

    sufficient temperature regulation, a finding validated by experiments (fig.16). Body heat has

    been shown to be a very effective solution.

    Figure 17: Incubation using body heat (50ml sample)

    Whilst acceptability can only be established through field trials, reports from South Africa

    suggest that individuals and households will be happy to carry the device with them for the

    duration of incubation (Gundry, 2008). For these users, where there is a choice between

    speed of the assay and cost, the design should invariably aim for the lowest cost.

    Store Energy

    Chemical EnergyExothermic

    Reaction

    Inorganic

    PCMSalt Hydrates

    Sensible HeatInsulated water

    bath

    Latent Heat

    Liquid-Gas

    Vapourisation

    Solid-Liquid

    Melting

    Organic PhaseChange Materials

    Lauric Acid

    T=42-44

    1-Tetradecanol

    T=38Solid-Gas

    Sublimation

    Solid-Solid

    Accept energy

    Solar

    Biomass

    Body Heat

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

    T

    emperature(C)

    Time (hours)

    Water Temperature

    Environment Temperature

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    The use of body heat however is unlikely to be accepted by water professionals. They will

    not want to have several water samples attached to their bodies all day and night. It is

    suggested that high-tech solutions may have a role for incubating several samples at a time

    or during transport to a location where laboratory incubation is available.

    5.3.2.3 A Reusable Incubator?

    A simple solution which could also solve the temperature requirement for professional

    users is to heat water to just above the optimal temperature and warm the devices in this

    water. The correct temperature could be attained by using a thermometer, or mixing three

    parts boiling water and one part source water. The samples could then be stored in an

    insulated container (e.g. vacuum flask) with a fraction of the warm water. This approach was

    evaluated using a 0.5l thermos flask. After 33 hours the temperature had dropped from

    42C to 24C, within the required limits. The main problem with this approach is the need to

    boil and transport more water.

    The viability of Phase Change Material (PCM) to incubate several water samples (taken as

    0.5l of water roughly ten) at a time was assessed through a combination of experiments and

    (lumped mass) heat transfer modelling. This began with a test of Portatherm - the incubator

    used in the MIT kit. It was unable to maintain a steady temperature despite containing only

    500ml of water and over 2kg of PCM: either the insulation or the mass of PCM would need

    to be increased. Improving insulation is expected to be more cost effective and would result

    in a lighter incubator. 1-Tetradecanol, the PCM used in Portatherm, should not be ingested

    and its use is not recommended for safety reasons (note: a leading cause of poisoning in

    some developing countries is ingestion of kerosene). An alternative, Lauric Acid (Tm=42C),

    was found by searching through two reviews of PCMs (Farid (2003), Zalba (2002)) and the

    CRC handbook.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 5 Part II: Constructive Research 37

    Findings and Implications for the Design

    (i) Body heat is by far the most appropriate solution. The device ought to bedesigned so that it can be kept near the body comfortably for over 36 hours.

    (ii)

    Phase change materials are not a viable option for a single sample and even lessfor a single-use device.

    (iii) Placing the device against the skin may not protect it from extremely hightemperatures. In this case the device could be submersed in more water from

    the source and left in the shade.

    (iv) A reusable incubator would be desirable for professional users who need toundertake frequent monitoring. This incubator could use phase change in an

    insulated box Lauric Acid is recommended for this purpose.

    5.3.3 Bubbles and Stability

    Purpose: response to problem during prototyping of narrow tubes 3mm I/D. Narrow blocked

    tubes would not fill when submerged in source water.

    When a narrow tube blocked at one end is submerged, air cannot escape and a bubble

    chamber forms. Surface tension forces dominate and water is stable above air. As the radius

    is increased the gravitational forces become more important and at a certain value, the

    bubble is no longer stable and the tube fills with water. This radius, , had to bedetermined because it would impact the form of potential designs, if not the minimum

    volume of water that could be separated. A stability analysis can be used to describe this

    phenomenon, the result of which gave an upper bound on the critical radius as just less than

    5mm. Mestrel (2008) gives a derivation of the critical radius, leading to Equ. 2:

    > Equ. 2

    Where is the smallest value given by the Bessel function which satisfies the rigidwall boundary condition Jm(kr) = 0. Figure 17 demonstrates that this is on the (blue) J1

    (curve); it has a value of 18.41. This predicts an antisymmetric perturbation as is to be

    expected: air must go up one way as the water goes down the other.

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 5 Part II: Constructive Research 38

    The numerical result in these lecture

    notes (r = 2cm) was in fact correct. The

    answer above was confirmed by a second

    source (Joseph, 1970) and experimentswere conducted to verify this model.

    Kitchen experiments

    This was a very simple experiment: holes of different diameters were drilled into an acrylic

    block. The block was then carefully submerged in dyed water. Holes larger than the critical

    radius filled with the dyed water: the critical radius was between the smallest tube that

    filled and the largest tube that remained empty (fig 19).

    Spurious initial results could be accounted for by residual soap in the water (as confirmed by

    later experiments). It is useful to note that impurities (e.g. turbidity) will always weaken the

    surface tension, which supports the use of the surface tension of pure water in determining

    the upper bound.

    Eq. 1 predicts that the stability depends only on density and surface tension. Results

    supported this theory for deep wells (40 mm), but nearly all of the 10-15mm deep wells

    filled. This suggests that the stability also depends on the depth of the well. The theory was

    Figure 18: Bessel Function

    Figure 20: Experiments to determine critical

    radius

    Figure 19: Equivalence between empty submerged tube and

    suspended filled tube

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 5 Part II: Constructive Research 39

    also verified by an equivalence it implies (fig.20) between this problem and the emptying of

    narrow tubes filled with water (then blocked at one end).

    Findings and Implications for the Design

    The trapping of air in thin wells is a limit on the smallest volume of water that can bedivided by pouring water into or submerging the device. This is therefore a limit on

    the range of the MPNS method. One way around this is to pipette the water into the

    device.

    The diameter should be at least 10mm to ensure that the wells can be filled bysubmersion in water so that bubbles will not be stable.

    By inspection, the smallest wells in the first Aquatest prototype will suffer from thisproblem.

    5.4 Concepts and Their Evaluation

    Table 12: Morphological Chart

    Sample Reagent Incubate Make safe Dispose

    Directly into

    device e.g. BailerPill packet Body Heat

    Solar water

    disinfectionSterilise in lab

    Samplecup/whirlbag

    Powered Organic PCM +insulate

    Chlorinedisinfection

    Sterilise in field

    Transfer using

    disposable pipetteSaturated

    paper

    Body heat +

    insulateBoil Generate waste

    HydratedExothermic

    reactionRecycle

    Mixing boiling

    waterBiodegradable

    A morphological chart (Tab. 12) was used to explore different combinations of functions.

    Having established that body heat would adequately incubate the water sample, the critical

    function was taking the sample. With indicator bacteria present in the environment, it

    would need to be very simple in order to make sure it is carried out aseptically. The most

    promising concept is described on the next page; other ideas are given in the Appendix 7.4.

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    Aquatest: An A

    Final Concept: pipette transf

    The Aquatest prototype wou

    gloves and the device would

    when opening the bag would

    pipette to transfer water fro

    the water, hands can be kep

    stability limit described in sec

    A screw-on lid with neoprene

    The neoprene could be white

    (shown in green) would need

    due to solar disinfection, but

    overheating. The screw-on li

    that it is not easy to contami

    and would preferably be tran

    The choice of materials will b

    and if so where the re-sterili

    not to be encouraged both

    this would impose the weste

    may be difficult to impleme

    further dependence on centr

    Figure 23: Pipettes or stsyringe

    fordable Water Test | 5 Part II: Constructive

    r into the device

    ld be complicated to use and relatively wa

    be packaged in a sterile bag. The risk of c

    be high. A much simpler solution is to use

    the source to the device. As pipettes are o

    clear from the device. Using a pipette also

    tion 5.3.3.

    under it is suggested to stop cross-contami

    as shown in the figure to facilitate reading

    to be opaque to prevent unintentional den

    it is suggested that the colour is not dark

    d should be deep, entirely encasing the si

    ate the interior. The base (shown in grey)

    sparent.

    e determined on whether the device is exp

    sation will take place. Generating waste at

    ecause the collecting systems are not ava

    n disposable culture. However, the autho

    nt a collection scheme and furthermore t

    lised laboratories.

    Figure 22: Final ConceptWaterjet demonstration model Figure 22: FinaldrFigure 21: Final concept waterjetdemonstration modelrile

    Research 40

    teful. It would use

    ntaminating these

    sterile disposable

    perated away from

    avoids the bubble

    ation of the wells.

    the results. The lid

    turisation of E.coli

    s this may lead to

    es of the base, so

    ust be translucent

    cted to be reused,

    the point of use is

    ilable and because

    r recognises that it

    is may result in a

    design concept CADawing

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    Aquatest: An Affordable Water Test | 6 Final Conclusions 41

    If the device is to be reused, the lid could be made from polypropylene and the base from

    polystyrene, both of which are resistant to UV and can be autoclaved. A disposable device

    would need to have a seal to show that the device has not been used.

    6 Final Conclusions

    6.1 Findings

    Water testing

    1. Without stronger epidemiological evidence quantitative water quality testing is onlya measure of the extent of faecal contamination: it does not measure health risk.

    2. An affordable water test can be produced using the MPNS method. This will be muchmore suited to the needs of the rural poor than current equipment.

    3. The significance of water quality and in particular the health benefits of improvingthe quality of water supplies have often been overstated. In spite of water quality

    being important it is also essential to have an integrated approach to solving health

    problems.

    Design of the Aquatest device

    1. Field testing kits were designed to strict specifications many of these are notjustified in this context and add unnecessary expense. Minimum requirements for

    the device have been proposed.

    2. Aquatest ought to pursue low-tech incubation methods: the use of body heat isdeemed appropriate.

    3. Statistical models suggest that ten wells may not provide enough information todistinguish between sources. A statistical model has been developed which will

    enable the configuration to be dete