AQUAINT

Scenario Breakout -- Group 2, Team 3

12 June 2002

AQUAINTGoal

Structured argument tool

Evaluate externals

Question generation

Methodology

“Generation”

AQUAINTExample

Al-Qaeda operatives in the USA will attempt to shoot downcivilian airliners in 4 major airports in the USA during the coming Thanksgiving holiday.

Backing:Warrants:Ground:Qualifiers:Modality:Rebuttal:Claim:

Motive:Means:Opportunity:Intent:

H1= Evidence = Technology

AQUAINTExample

Backing:

Warrants:

Grounds: Modality:

Rebuttal:

Claim:

Al-Qaeda operativesin the USA will attemptto shoot down civilianairliners in ____ majorairports in the USA during Thanksgiving.

AQUAINTGoals Technology (7-10 years, Shangra-La)

Metadata / Content tags for Persons, Places, Things / Organizations

Help with Analyst Questions Crime

Movement

$$$

Means

Predictive Q&A for analysts (modeling & timelines)

Suggest COAS

Alerts

Model building / filtering

keywords

Tool - Computing hypothesis modeling

Help with middle managers to sort out competing hypotheses

AQUAINTCurrent Intel Process

Read traffic (over time)

Based on my analysis profile for CT

Over several months

Task for analysis from commander What do we think will happen

during the next terrorist attack?

Motive: Kill Americans

Motivated Ready to act Event

AQUAINTDiagramMLLL

WCS

POLUBL

MILOPS

$$$$

UBL

MUSA

A

PQA

O

$ U

coH1

U

KW

H1

Help manage and sortcompeting hypotheses

INO

ME

PQA

Model

$ UUSAcredit card

MVT

PK T

$

USFBI + SS

INS

Motivated

WS O

Al-QaedaNework

C