APRIL_2010

Myjet -TigerAsia Mag 2010 3/22/10 2:11 PM Page 1

Composite

C M Y CM MY CY CMY K

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT

Asian TigersTime passes by so quickly and the summer season is upon us.

Election time in the Philippines is also fast approaching. In this issue seasoned columnist Steve Lunt follows the campaign trail of candidate Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, son of former presidents Ninoy and Cory and looks at his ambitions to overcome corruption. Aquino additionally expresses to business groups that he wants to level the playing field.

Continuing on the same theme, Ricardo Barcelona examines whether the elections are merely a two-horse race between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar.

Moving across to Indonesia, Subramanya Bettadapura explains to us the opportunities and challenges of the country’s the oil and gas sector.

Where is the world’s new capital for IPO’s, we might ask? Hong Kong and Shanghai are increasingly becoming attractive locations for foreign companies looking to raise capital by going public. In the process, such internationals are moving away from the traditional centers of Europe and the US.

As always, the following pages contain much more to read and you can always browse through the electronic version of Asian Tigers on our website: www.asiantir.com

Happy reading, browsing and investing!

Charlie Greene

時光飛逝，轉眼間夏季就要來到。

菲律賓大選不日將至，本刊專欄記者Steve Lunt選前探營，深入剖析候選人、前總統尼諾和柯莉之

子——班尼格諾·諾諾·阿基諾三世，以及他剷除腐敗的決心。諾諾已與商界有言在先，他希望公平競

爭。

這場大選其實是諾諾與曼尼兩人的較量，究竟花落誰家，且看Ricardo Barcelona解析。

目光轉向印尼，Subramanya Bettadapura剖析該國石油和天然氣行業所蘊涵的機遇與挑戰。

您可知道當今世界最熱門的IPO市場在哪里？香港和上海正吸引越來越多外國公司前來上市，而歐洲和美

國的傳統霸主地位正在動搖。

更多精彩，盡在亞洲虎雜誌。同時也歡迎您訪問我們的網站： www.asiantir.com

祝您閱讀愉快，投資順利！

Charlie Greene

Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing EditorMark Wayne

ContributorsChris Champion Michael WilsonCarl Nicholas NgNavin RajendraIan PorterJack DixonVandhana VenkatesanBert OlbesBernardo VillegasBruce CurranEmilio T. AntonioSubramanya BettadapuraSteve LuntRicardo G. Barcelona

Circulation ManagerBonnie Tsang

Production ManagerFerdie Ng

Design & LayoutRommel Domondon

Design AssistantsNazario Bugaring, Chris Wood, Arnel Mojica

Marketing & AdvertisingJanina Garcia [email protected]

Editorial & CommentsEric Wong [email protected]

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only.

All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.

Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

From the Editor’s Desk

編輯寄語

The Asian Tiger Investor Report Website (www.asiantir.com), provides a wealth of services to both the Asian investor as well as investors globally who are interested in the Asian market. In addition to the latest financial news, stock quotes, financial calendars and forex rates, you can also find these additional features:

Featured Company News - The place to look for news on companies that are making news.

Expert Columns - Asian Tiger Investor Report features exclusive commentary from globally recognized columnists who are experts in their fields.

Ask The Legal Experts - The complexities surrounding financial transactions can present a daunting minefield for investors. Gain expert help for your queries on securities and other transactions here.

Broker/Dealer Search - Check the status of a broker, dealer or investment house or adviser to determine if they are registered in the jurisdiction they offer their services in.

Detective Stock - Determine the worthiness of an equity and/or answer important questions about any specific stock.

Chinese Banking - The Downwave Begins?

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

YES! I want to subscribe to Asian Tigers Investor Report 1. I WOULD LIKE TO SUBSCRIBE FOR

2. SUBSCRIBER’S DETAILS:

6 months*

12 Months*

FIRST

ADDRESS

TELEPHONE

EMAIL

MIDDLE

FAX

LAST

3. I WISH TO PAY BY:

VISA MASTER CARD Other major credit cards

EXP. DATE ISSUING BANK

ACCOUNT NO.:

Or Register Online at www.asiantir.com/subscriptions

/

Subscribe this month for 12 issues and receive the 13th one free.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY AND SAVE UP TO 10%

13th Issue Free!

*Based on cover price for your country. Free Postage & Shipping.

Asian TigersSAVE 10%

Asian Tigers Investor Report Co.: Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central Hong Kong

Contents

Noynoy - Protecting the Aquino Legacy: A Fresh Start for the Philippines?諾諾·阿基諾－守衛阿基諾政治遺產：菲律賓的全新起點？作者/by Steve Lunt

The Japanese Biometrics Market日本的生物測量市場作者/by Navin Rajendra

Greenland Minerals and Energyset to dominate rare earths market格陵蘭礦產能源公司：稀土市場新霸主作者/by Ian Porter

Investor Overview

Another Version of G-2新版雙雄會作者/by Bernardo Villegas

ANZ’s Machine Safety Market -- Driven on a Fast - Track澳紐機器安全市場— 步入快車道作者/by Vandhana Venkatesan

Philippines - Orange empowerment or yellow revolution II ? 菲律賓－橙衫軍掌權抑或黃衫軍掀起第二次革命？作者/by Ricardo G. Barcelona

Putting some spice into economics經濟趣談作者/by Chris Champion

Chinese Banking - The Downwave Begins?中國銀行業面臨逆境？作者/by Michael Wilson

The World’s New IPO Capital?Hong Kong and Shanghai are increasingly becoming attractive locations for foreign companies looking to raise capital by going public新資本之都

香港和上海正吸引越來越多外國公司前來上市作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

Changing the Leopard Spots – The China Economy 本性「可」移—中國經濟作者/by Bruce Curran

The ABC of MDGs … ADB’s Development Focus on Asia-Pacific 千年發展目標現況

…亞洲開發銀行致力推動亞太發展作者/by Jack Dixon

Know Your Stock Exchanges 證券交易所博覽第I部作者/by Bert Olbes

Opportunities and Challenges in the Indonesian Oil & Gas Industry 印尼油氣行業的機遇與挑戰作者/by Subramanya Bettadapura

The Proposed Asian Monetary Fund: Will it soon fly? What does this mean to the member countries? 亞洲貨幣基金構想：何時上路？對成員國有何意義？作者/by Emilio T. Antonio

Features8

14

19

23

29

24

32

39

42

4658

Departments4 The Numbers Game

數字的遊戲作者/by Chris Champion

50

63

65

53

… ADB’s Development Focus on Asia Pacific

On the Cover:

42

14

The ABC of MDGs

19

The Japanese Biometrics Market

Greenland Minerals and Energy

46 The World’s New IPO Capital?

YES! I want to subscribe to Asian Tigers Investor Report 1. I WOULD LIKE TO SUBSCRIBE FOR

2. SUBSCRIBER’S DETAILS:

6 months*

12 Months*

FIRST

ADDRESS

TELEPHONE

EMAIL

MIDDLE

FAX

LAST

3. I WISH TO PAY BY:

VISA MASTER CARD Other major credit cards

EXP. DATE ISSUING BANK

ACCOUNT NO.:

Or Register Online at www.asiantir.com/subscriptions

/

Subscribe this month for 12 issues and receive the 13th one free.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY AND SAVE UP TO 10%

13th Issue Free!

*Based on cover price for your country. Free Postage & Shipping.

Asian TigersSAVE 10%

Asian Tigers Investor Report Co.: Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central Hong Kong

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者/by Chris Champion

APRIL 2010

4 Opinion

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

GameNumbersThe

專欄作者/by Chris Champion

數字的遊戲

Never argue with an economist

別與經濟學家較勁

Wages in neW Zealand are about a third lower than wages across the puddle in Australia, and the country’s much-respected Reserve Bank Governor, Sir Alan Bollard, was recently quoted as saying that wasn’t about to change because New Zealand did not have the same advantages, such as mineral deposits, and was unable to compete.

新西蘭的工資水平大概比

澳洲低三分之一。最近該

國德高望重的儲備銀行行

長阿倫•波蘭德說，這種

差距沒法改變，因為新西

蘭沒有澳洲那樣的優勢，

比如礦產資源，所以無力

競爭。

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key sniffed a political opportunity and made a public pronouncement that Bollard’s comments were negative. His government, he said, was pursuing policies to raise New Zealand income levels to match those of Australia within 15 years.

新西蘭總理約翰•基伊嗅到了政治機遇，

他公開表示波蘭德的講話消極。他說本屆政

府正在制定政策，好讓新西蘭的工資水平在

十五年內趕上澳洲。

Bollard, who has a PhD in Economics, an Honorary Doctorate in Laws and a lot of common sense, said nothing. But the television station TVNZ sniffed a journalistic opportunity and conducted a poll asking people who they believed.

More than 70 per cent believed Bollard, about 20 per cent sided with Key.波蘭德無語了，儘管他擁有經濟學博士和

法學榮譽博士頭銜，而且頭腦中不乏常識。

無獨有偶，新西蘭電視台嗅到了炒作機遇，

該台舉行了一個民意調查，詢問民眾到底相

信誰。結果有超過七成的人相信波蘭德，而

站在基伊這邊的只有兩成。

Economics 1: Politics 0.經濟學家1 : 0 政客。

APRIL 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Opinion 5

商不以為醜反以為榮的自嘲精神，又或者是

因為它穿起來確實很舒服。

The combination of low fashion and high comfort has caught on, with A-list celebrities such as Kate Moss and Cameron Diaz having discovered them and proclaiming love. The effect has been astonishing, including the birth, not surprisingly, of myriad Ugg copies.低調與舒適的結合產生了神奇效果，Ugg

贏得凱特•摩斯,卡麥蓉•狄亞等大牌明星的

萬千寵愛。因為名氣太大，仿冒Ugg之風盛

行。

The problem, according to podiatrists, is that many of the fake Uggs provide insufficient foot support and are particularly dangerous. Wearing them for just a few months can lead to tow deformities and long-term back ache.然而據足科醫師說，許多Ugg仿品都無法

為雙足提供足夠支撐，潛藏健康隱患，穿幾

個月就能導致雙足畸形，引發長期背痛。

But with Kate and Cameron continuing to snuggle their Uggs, and with the real item being decidedly expensive, selling for about US$300 in London, the copies will keep coming.可是，因為Ugg深得凱特和卡麥蓉之流的

芳心，而且正品售價不菲（在倫敦大概要賣

300美元），所以仿品仍將大行其道。

Caveat emptor.但願買家好自為之。

The old Orient Express is associated mostly with the journey from Paris to Istanbul, and the time it took varied a great deal.

Expressions of the Orient

東方快車歸來

The old Orient Express is associated mostly with the journey from Paris to Istanbul, and the time it took varied a great deal. It was the stuff of luxury and romance, and was mentioned in the literary works of Bram Stoker, Agatha Christie, Graham Greene, George McDonald Fraser and Ian Fleming.一提起古老的東方快車，很自然便聯想到

從巴黎到伊斯坦布爾之旅。它歷經時代的滄

桑變遷，奢華和浪漫是它的標誌，在伯蘭•

史杜克、阿加莎•克里斯蒂、格雷厄姆•格

林、喬治•麥克唐納、伊恩•弗萊明等名家筆

下，都能見到它的身影。

It made its first journey in 1883, it offered its first Paris-Istanbul all-train service in 1889, and it ran for the last time in 2007, when the name Orient Express disappeared from all European train timetables. It was a victim, they said, of high-speed trains and cut-rate airlines.1883年它開啟處女航，1889年正式開通巴

黎至伊斯坦布爾專線，2007年它跑完最後一

班，從此全歐洲的列車時刻表上再無「東方

快車」的名字。人們說，它是高速鐵路和降

價攬客的航空公司的犧牲品。

The new Orient Express has just been announced. 現在，東方快車有望歸來。

It will run from London to Beijing. It will pass through Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Kiev, St Petersburg, Moscow, Astana in Kazakhstan and Khabarovsk in Russia far east. It will travel at about 320 kilometres per hour, and it will make the journey in just two days, starting as early as 2020. 它將穿梭於倫敦到北京，途徑巴黎、柏

林、華沙、基輔、聖彼得堡、莫斯科、哈薩

克斯坦的阿斯塔納，還有俄羅斯遠東地區

的哈巴羅夫斯克，時速達每小時320公里，

全程僅需兩天，預計最早將於2020年投入

運營。

It is a business vision of perhaps the only economic power on Earth with the energy and financial muscle to make this work, China.這是一個商業構想，而在這個星球上，

既有實力又有財力實現它的，恐怕只有中

國了。

I should make some caveats here. This is a proposal rather than a firm plan, 2020 is the “earliest possible” completion date,

and there is actually no suggestion that it will be called the Orient Express. But they have to call it that, don’t they? The world is a sadder place without an Orient Express in it.先別高興太早，現在它不過是一個意向，

尚未落實為計劃，2020年是「可能的最早」

完工時間，而且根本沒人說要把它命名為

「東方快車」。可是話又說回來，還有比這

更好的名字嗎？沒有東方快車，世界將會失

色不少。

The Ugg bug

最愛Ugg

Almost all Australia’s major exports are dug out of the ground or grown on animals which are then shorn.澳洲主要的出口商品差不多都埋在地底

下，要麼就是。

One exception is Ugg boots, the footwear which looks suitable for cavemen. Ugg boots are much loved in Australia, having become to the winter season what the ubiquitous thongs have always been to the summer. Perhaps it is their ugliness, or the gentle self-deprecation of the maker who admits that ugliness, or perhaps it is that they are the ultimate comfort-wear for your feet.Ugg靴子是個例外，雖然它看上去更像是

給原始人準備的。Ugg靴子深受澳洲人喜

愛，Ugg之於冬季，猶如之於夏季。打動人

的，也許正是它的其貌不揚，或者說是製造

APRIL 2010ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

Opinion6

The then Russian Prime Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, was asked in 1998 about the government’s plans for dealing with the financial crisis. “I should like to repeat,” he replied, “there is no program of any kind.”1998年，時任俄羅斯總理普利馬科夫被

問到政府打算如何應對金融危機，他回答

說：「我想重申一遍，現在沒有任何計

劃。」

“As a simple countryman he distrusted the use of money and, finding barter cumbersome, preferred to steal.”

— Miles Kington (Welcome to Kington, 1989)

「作為一個純樸的鄉下人，他不相信鈔票的用處，又覺得以物易物實在麻煩，便索性幹起樑上君子的勾當。」

— 邁爾斯•金頓（Welcome to Kington, 1989）

They said... 名人名言

A MOMENT IN HISTORY 歷史一刻

Going bananas

神奇的香蕉

In a move which has susbstantially changed the way economists look at banana trees, an Australian company has announced that it intends to make swimwear out of banana tree fibre.近日一家澳洲公司宣稱要用香蕉樹纖維

製造游泳衣，這讓經濟學家對香蕉樹刮目

相看。

The manufacturer, aussieBum, best known for producing men’s underwear and promotional posters which substantially change the way marketing people look at male muscular development, says it has not gone bananas.這家公司名為aussieBum，以生產男士內

褲和製作猛男海報而聞名。它說這並不是

信口開河。

The fibre of the banana tree, it says, is a comfortable, sustainable and eco-friendly source material. It is relatively easy to spin, and it provides a “soft, smooth and extremely comfortable result (which) people have come to expect from top-quality underwear brands.”公司表示，香蕉樹纖維是一種舒適,環

保、可持續利用的原料，它易於紡織，具

有「頂級內褲品牌的柔軟,光滑和極其舒適

的效果」。

aussieBum’s Banana range will be 100 per cent Australian made and, obviously, will be easy to slip into.aussieBum的「香蕉」系列產品將完全在

澳洲製造，想必上身效果不錯。 |AT|

The manufacturer, aussieBum, best known for producing men’s underwear and promotional posters which substantially change the way marketing people look at male muscular development, says it has not gone bananas.

The system that combines people from different networks and countries into one

A single Global Mobile Network no

matter who is or where your mobile

operator is from

A global location-targeted audience for marketers to address more accurately than ever before

A New Mobile World

ICE Corp provides global multimedia mobile marketing solutions, secure transaction authentication systems over mobile and location based mobile applications. ICE Corp is headquartered in Singapore with offices in Malaysia, Philippines and Switzerland.

For more information visit www.ice-sync.com or www.icecorpasia.com

iCEsync is a global mobile platform provided by Intelligent Communication Enterprise (ICE Corp) OTC BB: ICMC

8 People

NoyNoy-Protecting the Aquino Legacy : A Fresh Start for the

PhiLiPPineS?守衛阿基諾政治遺產：菲律賓的全新起點？作者/by Steve Lunt

諾諾·阿基諾－

reasons were equally unreserved: “You can trust the Aquino family. They are honest, good people. Noynoy will be a good president.” And his advice for the next government? “They need to focus on people who believe in them, the people who are poor.” 在教堂內，諾諾·阿基諾一進入大門，

身著黃衫的擁護者就把他團團圍住，他們

發自內心的擁戴之情溢於言表，諾諾·阿

基諾得到搖滾明星般的歡迎。一個身著綠

色 T恤衫的男子在黃衫人群中顯得格外突

出，他會投票給諾諾·阿基諾嗎？他很快

給出答案：「當然會。」他毫無保留地說明

自己的理由：「阿基諾家族是值得信賴的。

他們是誠實善良的人。諾諾·阿基諾將成

為出色的總統。」在談及對下屆政府的建議

時，他表示：「政府應重視信賴的政府的民

眾，重視貧窮的民眾。」

During the service, Father Mon Capuno, parish priest of La Paz, asked

also seemed appropriate to the sunny weather and dispositions -- in memory of Noynoy’s parents “Ninoy” and “Cory”, symbolizing their iconic family’s fight since the 1960s for democracy and social equality in the Philippines. 所有人都身穿阿基諾最喜歡的黃色服裝

（似乎亦符合豔陽高照的天氣及活動氛圍），

紀念諾諾的父母「尼諾伊（Ninoy）」及「柯

莉（Cory）」，象徵著阿基諾家族自上世紀

60 年代以來為菲律賓的民主及社會平等不

懈鬥爭。

Inside the church, a flock of yellow-clad fans surged around Noynoy as he entered, the shrieking congregation of supporters giving him a spontaneous, emotional rock-star welcome. One man wore a green t-shirt, rather conspicuous amidst the fields of yellow -- so was he going to vote for Noynoy? The answer came quickly: “Yes, of course.” His

In the early mornIng heat under a bright blue benign sky, hundreds were already gathering outside the attractive Concepcion church. The crowds were eagerly anticipating a momentous Mass for one of their favorite neighbors: Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III was starting his official presidential campaign with prayers -- an Aquino family custom at the start of any election race.

清晨，在湛藍的天空下，暑氣開始升騰，

數百位群眾已經在著名的 Concepcion 教堂

前聚集。他們正熱切期待一次大規模群眾

集會，聲援參議員班尼格諾「諾諾」阿基

諾三世（Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino II）正式

參與總統競選，此類活動已成為阿基諾家

族的傳統，在任何競選活動之前都會舉辦。

Nearly everyone was wearing the Aquinos’ favoured colour, yellow -- which

8 People


NoyNoy-


Noynoy speaks fondly about a child who gave him a bamboo piggy-bank. The little kid said: ”This is for my future -- a good one, or a better one.” Another child gave him a water bottle filled with peso coins and a note, which said: “Dear Noynoy, I’m sending you lots of moneys (sic). I will also say lots of prayers for you, because I want you to win. When you win, please go to the kids, and make sure they have a school to go to.” Noynoy says these donations touched him: “It reminds you of the responsibilities you have in this campaign. We make unscheduled stops at grade schools, and they all turn out, just to hand me their own contributions.”

NoyNoy-

People 9

Aquino to raise his hands, saying the senator held the heavy burden of a nation’s hope. Father Capuno asked the congregation to raise their hands as a symbol of the support they would give him in the challenge ahead. Addressing the faithful after the Mass, Noynoy received his biggest cheer when promising to fight the evils of corruption. 活動過程中，La Paz 教區牧師 Mon

Capuno 神父讓諾諾·阿基諾高舉雙手，表

明參議員肩負國家希望的重托。Capuno 神

父讓民眾亦舉起雙手，象徵著諾諾·阿基

諾應對挑戰時群眾的支援。面對群眾發表

演講時，諾諾·阿基諾發誓與腐敗罪行鬥

爭到底，得到民眾最熱烈的歡呼。

There seemed to be a popular perception that Noynoy, like his mother and father, would genuinely care about ordinary people – even after he’s settled into office, with all its temptations and trappings of power.

This is the precious Aquino legacy that garners so much support for Noynoy; but it also creates such high expectations of him among voters, from the clergy to ordinary Filipinos, should he become the second member of his family to run their country.民眾普遍認為，諾諾·阿基諾與他的父

母一樣，會真心關懷普通百姓，即使在執

掌權柄之後亦能如此。這一寶貴的阿基諾

家族傳統為諾諾·阿基諾贏得巨大民眾支

援，同時選民亦對他給予非常高的期望，

無論神職人員還是普通民眾，都希望他成

為第二個執掌國家大權的家族成員。

Shortly after that exuberant start to his official presidential campaign, I met Noynoy in his haven of tranquility at the Aquino family home in Manila. We talked about the senator’s progress in the race so far, and discussed his political plans for the troubled archipelago. 在轟轟烈烈的正式參選儀式之後，我有

幸來到阿基諾家族位於馬尼拉的幽靜住處，

與諾諾·阿基諾會面。我們探討他目前的

工作進展，還探討他為這個問題重重的群

島國家制定的政治計劃。

Noynoy’s closest contender in the polls, Manny Villar, has a deep war-chest to fund his frequent exposure across the media. By contrast, Noynoy says he relies on donations and support from volunteers: “We have been getting a lot of contributions from people that we consider it’s ‘safe’ to accept contributions from. We don’t want our decision-making process captured by any vested interest. So we make it clear to those who will be supporting our campaign that these are the only things you can expect from us. We tell the business groups we’ll level the playing field. We will not use the regulatory powers of the state to hamper or hinder your businesses, especially if


People10

you’re following the laws. If you’re being oppressed or abused, come to us, we’ll fix it. But if you want to have a few advantages over your competitors, forget it – it will not happen.”Manny Villar 是諾諾·阿基諾最強勁的

競選對手，他不惜重金頻頻在媒體露面。

與之相反，諾諾·阿基諾主要依靠捐款及

志願者的支援，他表示：「我們得到大量民

眾捐款，我們只接受來源『安全』的捐款。

我們不希望被利益左右決策過程。我們向

支援競選活動的人士明確表示，只能期望

我們做到一件事。我們告訴企業界的人士，

我們將整肅商業環境。我們不會使用政府

權力損害企業利益，尤其對於那些守法經

營的企業。如果您遭遇壓迫或權力濫用，

支援我們吧，我們會解決此類問題。但如

果您希望得到競爭對手不具備的政治優勢，

還是算了吧，您得不到這樣的好處。」

Noynoy speaks fondly about a child who gave him a bamboo piggy-bank. The little kid said: ”This is for my future -- a good one, or a better one.” Another child gave him a water bottle filled with peso coins and a note, which said: “Dear Noynoy, I’m sending you lots of moneys (sic). I will also say lots of prayers for you, because I want you to win. When you win, please go to the kids, and make sure they have a school to go to.” Noynoy says these donations touched him: “It reminds you of the responsibilities you have in this campaign. We make unscheduled stops at grade schools, and

they all turn out, just to hand me their own contributions.”諾諾·阿基諾充滿溫情地提及一個小童，

這小童送給他一個竹子做的小豬存錢罐。

小童說：「這是我的未來，一個美好的未來

或更好的未來。」還有個小童曾送他一個水

壺，裏面裝滿比索硬幣及一張字條，上面

寫著：「尊敬的諾諾·阿基諾，我給您一

大筆錢。我還會不斷為您祈禱，因為我希

望您贏得選舉。獲勝之後，請關注小童們，

一定要給他們上學的機會。」這些捐贈令諾

諾·阿基諾深受感動，他表示：「這些捐贈

時刻提醒我參與競選要承擔的責任。我們

會在沒有預先安排的情況下參觀小學，所

有學生都會親手交給我他們的捐贈。」

The Philippines is bedevilled with endemic, long-standing corruption. How would he eradicate this in practice? 菲律賓貪污盛行，腐敗成風。他將如何

根除腐敗呢？

“First, by enforcing the laws that are already there.” Noynoy says they would “throw the book” at local government officials who don’t even live in the localities they’re supposed to represent. He cites another example: “Is it true that most of the funds sent to for instance ARMM (Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) wind up in the pockets of whoever the warlords are? I think that will be an easy matter to prove: We will send state auditors together with as many security personnel as they need to really start calculating where each centavo went.

Now having done that, then you plug in the loopholes, charge the necessary people, make an example of them that says there’s a new system in place, there’s a new sheriff in town -- and all of you who will choose to continue the old ways will have rooms available in a national penitentiary.”「首先，要切實執行既定的法律。」有些

本地政府官員甚至不在自己應代表的地區

居住，諾諾·阿基諾表示將嚴懲此類官

員。他引用另一個實例說明：「例如，政府

向 ARMM（穆斯林棉蘭老島自治區）提供的

資金是否最終落入軍閥的口袋？我認為證

明事情很簡單：我們可以派駐國家核數師，

配備足夠多的安保人員，審查每一分錢的

用途。這樣可起到殺雞儆猴的效果，告訴

所有人全新體制開始運行，新治安官已經

上任，任何頑冥不化的人都將受到嚴懲，

監獄就是他們的歸宿。」

So that would appear to be the stick side, then. But would there be carrots? Noynoy takes it from the top: “The best example is the presidency itself: the salary is 600,000 pesos a year, presiding over a 1.5 trillion budget. Sometimes I try to make light of it: I say you want the goodness of a Sister Theresa, combined with the acumen of somebody like Bill Gates or Donald Trump, and innovativeness like Edison perhaps – but you want to pay this person peanuts. You have regular sized peanuts for the top office, and it gets smaller and smaller as you go down. So how will somebody

貼。我們應制定切實有效的標準，

建立報告卡。我們在這個重要參數

上意見一致。以健康為例，假設需

要降低嬰兒死亡率。我們會向該領

域投入更多資源，相關人員便能更

有效地改善健康狀況。」

He cites Singapore as a successful model, where the public sector makes about 80% of the private sector. “Let us give them enough so they have a dignified level of existence, and they’re shielded from temptation.”他認為新加坡是成功的典範，新加坡的

公營部門占私營部門的 80％。「我們要讓

政府官員擁有足夠高的生活水準，從而抵

禦誘惑。」

And that sounds like it could be ex-pensive. So where would all the necessary money come from?這聽起來似乎耗資巨大。資金從何而來

呢？

“During President Ramos’ time, there was a study that said they managed to get an 18% tax collection efficiency ratio. It has now dropped to about 12 to 13. We will run after the tax evaders seriously, and also those who are not paying their duties correctly. If we raise that rate just even two percentage points, it will

redound to 150 billion pesos in new revenue without taxes.「Ramos 總統在任期間，有研究表明政府

實現 18％的徵稅效率比。目前該比率已降

至 12％至 13％。我們將嚴懲逃稅者，亦不

會放過偷漏稅者。如能將該效率比提高兩

個百分點，就能在不加稅的情況下為政府

新增 1500 億比索的收入。

“On top of that there’s one study that says 280 billion pesos was lost to corruption -- just in 2009 alone. Between the two that’s 430. If you have a 300 billion deficit then you have a surplus of 130 in a best-case scenario – that’s where we will get the funding from.「還有研究表明，僅在 2009 年政府就因

腐敗流失 2800 億比索的收入。兩者加合就

是 4300 億比索。如果政府有 3000 億赤字，

在理想情況下還能有 1300 億盈餘，這就是

新政的資金來源。

“We will clamp down on leakages. For instance, in the last budget the Depart-ment of Agriculture was downloading funds to the regional units for use in farm-to-market roads. Unfortunately the method they used was first to transfer it to a GOCC (government owned and controlled corporation) before trans-ferring to the regional feed units. This GOCC charged management fees of something like 60 million pesos. So we will go after things like that.”「我們將努力控制收入流失。例如，農業

部去年預算計劃向各地撥款，用於建設連

接農場及市場的道路。遺憾的是，農業部

首先將款項撥付給 GOCC（政府持有並控制

的公司），然後在撥付各個地區。GOCC 借

機收取約 6000 萬比索的管理費。我們將追

討此類流失的資金。」

Could Noynoy clarify once and for all whether he would intend to raise taxes as well?諾諾·阿基諾能否明確表示，是否有意

提高稅收呢？


People 11

He cites Singapore as a successful model, where the public sector makes about 80% of the private sector

who cannot even make enough to send a child to a reputable school be armoured enough to withstand all of the temptation. So our proposal is there should be a reward system.這是他的政策展現大棒威懾的一面。但

會有胡蘿蔔的誘惑嗎？諾諾·阿基諾由上

至下為我介紹：「總統職位本身就是最好的

實例：總統薪水每年 600,000 比索，有權

執掌超過 1.5 萬億的預算。我有時努力輕

視薪酬多少：您想要一個人擁有 Theresa

修女的善良,Bill Gates 或 Donald Trump

般的機敏以及愛迪生般的創新能力，但只

想用花生作為回報。高級職位可以得到正

常大小的花生，職位越低，花生越小。因此，

如果政府官員無力負擔子女就讀名校的費

用，怎麼能抵禦各種誘惑呢？因此我們計

劃建立獎勵體制。」

“We want a meritocracy; this will be the main parameter – whether they get promoted, salary increases, new perks etc. Let’s have a standard – in effect, a report card. We agree on parameters. Let’s say it’s health, and you need a lowering of the infant mortality rate. Then we’ll re-direct more assets to your area so you’re more empowered to effect changes in the health situation.”「我們需要精英統治，這將成為主要參數，

無論精英得到職位晉升 ,加薪還是全新津

by spending it on worthwhile items like more infrastructure -- that is a vital component for instance for tourism, which is a growth area -- and education, that will empower our citizenry to get jobs beyond minimum wage, which also grows the economy. Then, perhaps we can avoid having to raise new taxes. If we are able to achieve all that, and the deficit is managed, the economy is growing, then perhaps we can even consider lowering the tax rates.「從理性角度出發，如果我們能提高徵稅

效率比，如果我們能改變政府工作效率低

下的狀態，為企業創造更好的環境，我們

或許能將資金投入到更有價值的領域，例

如基礎設施建設（是持續增長的旅遊業不

可或缺的組成部分）及教育，從而推動經

濟發展，使公民的收入水平超過最低工資

標準，這同樣有助於經濟發展。然後，我

們或許能避免新增稅項。如果能實現上述

目標，成功控制赤字，實現經濟增長，我

們甚至會考慮降低稅率。」

Noynoy explains he wants to be business friendly: “Number one in our platform is job generation. No corporate entity, no citizen who observes the laws


“It would be wrong to impose new taxes when you are unable to collect the taxes that are already on the books. So the first focus before imposing new taxes has to be to try and manage the deficit by increasing the tax collection efficiency ratio and also making sure that the expenditure is proper. We will review every item in the budget to find out which are meritorious of funding and which are not. Now after having exhausted all of that, and if the deficit is still not manage-able, then that is the period when we can start considering taxes. 「面對已經生效的稅項無法有效徵收稅款

的情況，開徵新稅項是錯誤的。在徵收新

稅項之前，應努力提高徵稅效率比，確保

合理開支，從而有效控制赤字。我們將檢

討預算的各個項目，確定哪些項目對增收

有益，哪些無益。上述工作完成後，如仍

無法有效控制赤字，我們才會考慮稅務問

題。」

“Philosophically, if we are able to improve the tax collection efficiency ratio, if we are able to shield the businesses from extortionate practices by scallywags in government service, then we can perhaps grow the economy

should have any fear from us. We will be their partners -- because our function has to be to make the economy grow to the benefit of everybody.”諾諾·阿基諾希望與企業界保持良好關

係，他解釋道：「我們的施政平臺的首要任

務是產生工作崗位。守法的企業或公民不

應害怕我們。我們將成為他們的合作夥伴，

因為我們的職責就是推動經濟發展，使所

有人獲益。」

He identifies what he believes to be the core issues for the business community: red tape, peace and order, the high cost of energy, and a lack of infrastructure.他認為企業界應注重的核心問題包括：

繁瑣的公事程序 ,和平及秩序 ,能源高成

本以及基礎設施缺乏。

“I believe there are two types of politicians in our country: One who would want the vast populus -- without saying it -- to be mired in poverty, so they are dependent on anything and everything from whoever the political kingpin is. We in turn would want to empower the citizenry, so that we are not forced to wet our beak in the public trough. Teach them to fish instead of giving them fish -- give opportunities. If their lot improves, they will continue to put into office those who made it possible for them to dramatically change their situation.”「我認為菲律賓有兩種政客：一種人希

望大量人口陷入貧困，這樣無論政治首腦

是誰，做任何事情都必須依賴他們。我們

則希望賦予公民權利，這樣便不會被迫侵

害公共利益。我們應授之以漁，為民眾創

造機會。如果民眾的境遇得到改善，自然

會投票給幫助他們顯著改善境遇的政治人

物。」

Noynoy also spells out his detailed plans for reforms in areas he believes are essential to the nation’s recovery: more classrooms, quality teaching time and improved education facilities, as well as judicial reform: “You have good laws, but nobody gets convicted because it’s only an 18% conviction rate – it’s useless. It takes six years to adjudicate cases in this country. So we really have to work also on how to provide justice in an expeditious manner.” 諾諾·阿基諾還介紹詳細改革計劃，涉

及的領域對國家經濟復蘇至關重要：更多

教室 ,高質素教學時間 ,改善教育設施並

進行司法改革。他表示：「菲律賓有完備的

法律，但無人獲罪，因為判罪率僅為 18％，

Noynoy also spells out his detailed plans for reforms in areas he believes are essential to the nation’s recovery: more classrooms, quality teaching time and improved education facilities, as well as judicial reform

People12


Economy 13People 13

“And having normalcy will I think redound to the benefit of the people. I’m just hoping my neighbors will not be too bothered by all the people who will wait in ambush here to corner me, because it’s more accessible here than in Malacañang! If we’re able to effect that, and I’m still welcome while I’m president, then I really would choose to live here.”

法律毫無作用。在菲律賓，很多案件歷時

六年才獲宣判。因此，我們還必須努力確

保快速實現司法公正。」

Would Noynoy take up presidential residence in Malacañang? Not if he can help it, apparently: “You’re shielded from the people, there’s a cordon around you, there’s filtering of information that’s necessary to make decisions. At the end of the day, wouldn’t it be nice to be back to my normal self, for three or four hours. The following day you can have me again with all the protocols, the strictures, the rules, the regulations. But at least I start the day out fresh. Don’t let me start out having an inflated sense of my own worth or my ego, not having my feet planted firmly on the ground because I might succumb to the same temptations that those who we are criticising have done. 諾諾·阿基諾是否會入住 Malacañang

的總統官邸？要想有所作為，顯然不會：「入

住總統官邸會遠離群眾，身邊有衛隊保護，

對決策至關重要的資訊可能被過濾。每天

即將結束時，我還能有三四個小時恢復正

常自我，一定感覺不錯。第二天，我會重

新參與各種協議 ,責問 ,規則及法規的相

關工作。這樣我至少每天都能以清爽的心

態開始工作。千萬別讓我因個人膨脹而失

去自我，放棄腳踏實地的狀態，因為我可

能會像自己批評的對象一樣，無法抵制誘

惑。」

“And having normalcy will I think redound to the benefit of the people. I’m just hoping my neighbors will not be too bothered by all the people who will wait in ambush here to corner me, because it’s

more accessible here than in Malacañang! If we’re able to effect that, and I’m still welcome while I’m president, then I really would choose to live here.”「保持平常心有助於造福民眾。我只是

希望，有很多人到這裏向我發難時，不

會給鄰居帶來過多煩擾，因為這裏較之

Malacañang 更容易接近！如果能實現這種

想法，而且我在任期內仍受到民眾歡迎，

那我真的會選擇在這裏生活。」

It’s a matter of record that the Aquino family have made the biggest sacrifices because of their political beliefs: Noynoy’s father, Ninoy, was locked up for seven years by Marcos as a political prisoner, and assassinated in 1983 on returning to Manila to lead the opposition. In 1987, after Cory Aquino had reluctantly accepted the people’s call for her to become president, rebel soldiers attacked her residence at Malacañang Palace, and Noynoy narrowly escaped death. Three of his escorts were killed, and he was hit by five bullets -- one of which is still embedded in his neck.阿基諾家族為了政治信仰做出歷史上最

大的犧牲：諾諾·阿基諾的父親尼諾伊·

阿基諾被 Marcos 作為政治犯關押七年，

1983 年返回馬尼拉途中遇刺身亡，引發反

抗運動。1987 年，柯莉·阿基諾無奈接受

人民的號召，擔任菲律賓總統，叛軍襲擊

她在 Malacañang Palace 的官邸，諾諾·

阿基諾險些喪命。他的三名護衛身亡，他

身中五槍，其中一顆子彈至今仍嵌在頸部。

Given this traumatic and violent history, would Noynoy enjoy being the president?

這段充滿血腥暴力的經歷過後，諾諾·

阿基諾是否真心願意出任總統？

“If it redounds to the people and they say ‘Thank you – you achieved this, you changed that’ -- then I think it will be worthwhile. It ’s just six years, and if this is the sacrifice that’s necessary, to make meaning of all of the sacrifices that came before it, then it will be worth it.” 「如果有助於改善民生，且民眾會說『感

謝您，您做到了，您改變了菲律賓』－這

樣我認為值得。只是六年而已，如果這種

犧牲能使以往所有的犧牲具有意義，一定

值得。」 |AT|

Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino, was assassinated at the Manila International Airport upon returning home from exile in the United States.

APRIL 2010

14 Technology


作者/by Navin RajendraThe

Japanese Biometrics MarkeT日本的生物測量市場

文中文中


Technology 15

Japan is located to the east of the Korean peninsula with a total population of a little over 127 million as of 2009. The services sector contributes 75 percent to the country’s GDP with the industry sector contributing 23 percent. The industrial sector is highly dependent on the import of raw materials. Some of the major countries that Japan imports from are China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia.

日本位於韓國半島以東，截至 2009 年總

人口略超過 1.27 億。服務行業佔日本 GDP

的 75％，工業佔 23％。日本的工業對進口

原材料依賴程度較高。日本的重要進口來源

包括中國、美國及沙特。

Japan is also known for having one of the world’s largest fishing fleets. Automo-biles, consumer electronics, iron and steel are some of the country’s key exports. Many of the world’s top automobile and electronics giants have their home base in Japan. Some of them include Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Suzuki Motor Corporation, Sony Corporation, Hitachi Limited and so on.日本還擁有全球規模最大的捕魚船隊之

一。汽車、消費電子產品、鋼鐵是日本的

主要出口產品。諸多全球頂尖汽車廠商及

電子產品巨頭的總部都在日本。其中包括：

豐田汽車公司、本田汽車公司、鈴木汽車

公司、索尼公司、日立有限公司等。

Till the early nineties, many organiza-tions in the country were part of a Kei-retsu which was a conglomerate of com-panies with an inter-business relationship and share holding patterns. At the basic level, the Keiretsu would comprise of a single central bank, which would come to the monetary aid of any of the member companies. As a result, the bank would have a certain control over these organiza-tions. The Keiretsu prevented any type of hostile take over within the member com-munities. This system had slowly started to diminish in the early nineties when the Japanese recession adversely affected many of the large banks, especially those that were part of the Keiretsu. Eventually, the Keiretsu system was phased out over the years through growths in corporate acquisitions. 在上世紀 90年代初，日本的諸多企業均

是經連會（Keiretsu）成員，經連會是多個

公司的聯合體，成員之間有內部業務關係，

共享控股模式。經連會通常設有一個中央銀

行，為任何成員公司提供資金援助。由此，

銀行會對此類組織擁有特定控制權。經連會

可避免成員之間出現任何類型的惡意收購。

90年代初，日本經濟衰退嚴重影響諸多大

型銀行，尤其是參與經連會的銀行，經連會

制度逐步消失。隨著企業收購的增長，經連

會制度在隨後幾年內最終消失。

Japan’s economy is the second larg-est in the world; however, in 2009 the

country was one of the most adversely affected countries in the region experi-encing a negative GDP growth rate of 5.1 percent. Bank interest rates in the country were the lowest in seven years, almost equal to zero.日本是全球第二大經濟體；不過，在

2009 年，日本是亞洲地區受金融危機影響

最為嚴重的國家，GDP 負增長 5.1％。日本

的銀行利率達到七年來最低水平，幾乎為零。

In such an unfavourable economic climate, spending was minimized. In tune

Japan’s economy is the second largest in the world; however, in 2009 the country was one of the most adversely affected countries in the region experiencing a negative GDP growth rate of 5.1 percent


Japan is located to the East of the Korean peninsula with a total population of a little over 127 million as of 2009. The services sector contributes 75 percent to the country’s GDP with the industry sector contributing 23 percent. The industrial sector is highly dependent on the import of raw materials. Some of the major countries that Japan imports from are China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia.

Japan is also known for having one of the world’s largest fishing fleets. Automobiles, consumer electronics, iron and steel are some of the country’s key exports. Many of the world’s top automobile and electronics giants have their home base in Japan. Some of them include Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Suzuki Motor Corporation, Sony Corporation, Hitachi Limited and so on.

Till the early nineties, many organizations in the country were part of a Keiretsu which was a conglomerate of companies with an inter-business relationship and share holding patterns. At the basic level, the Keiretsu would comprise of a single central bank, which would come to the monetary aid of any of the member companies. As a result, the bank would have a certain control over these organizations. The Keiretsu prevented any type of hostile take over within the member communities. This system had slowly started to diminish in the early nineties when the Japanese recession adversely affected many of the large banks, especially those that were part of the Keiretsu. Eventually, the Keiretsu system was phased out over the years through growths in corporate acquisitions.

Japan’s economy is the second largest in the world; however, in 2009 the country was one of the most adversely affected countries in the region experiencing a negative GDP growth rate of 5.1 percent. Bank interest rates in the country were the lowest in seven years, almost equal to zero.

GDP Real Growth Rate; Japan 2006 – 2009(e)

GDP Real Grow th Rate: Japan

-6

-5

-4-3

-2

-1

01

2

3

2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP Real Grow thRate

Source Frost & Sullivan

2.0

2006

2.3

2007

(5.1)(1.2)GDP Real Growth Rate Japan

2009 (e)2008

2.0

2006

2.3

2007


2009 (e)2008








-6

-5

-4-3

-2

-1

01

2

3



2.0

2006

2.3

2007


2009 (e)2008

2.0

2006

2.3

2007


2009 (e)2008








-6

-5

-4-3

-2

-1

01

2

3



2.0

2006

2.3

2007


2009 (e)2008

2.0

2006

2.3

2007


2009 (e)2008

作者/by Navin RajendraThe

Japanese Biometrics MarkeT日本的生物測量市場

GDP 實際增長率；日本2006年－2009年(e)

資料來源：Frost & Sulliva

Technology16


with the global downturn, there was a decline in the exports of the country.在如此不利的經濟環境下，開支被控制

在最低水平。受全球經濟蕭條影響，日本的出口額亦出現下滑。

Growth in the industry行業增長

The Japanese government has always been at the forefront in the provision of security for all its citizens at all levels, starting from physical security to the logical data on an individual’s credit card or bank account details. Before the decline of the Keiretsu system, transactions through credit were very few in the country. Many had actually looked upon “credit” as a sign of financial instability. This is no longer the case with the ever-changing economic scenario in the country today. Accompanying this change was a new security threat i.e. identity fraud.日本政府積極在各個方面為市民提供安

全保障，包括實體安全措施以及個人信用卡或銀行賬戶資料的邏輯數據。在經連會制度衰落之前，信用交易在日本並不常見。眾多企業將信用視為財務不穩健的象徵。如今，隨著經濟發展不斷變化，這種觀念在日本不復存在。隨之而生的是一種全新安全威脅，即偽造身份。

In 2003, there were numerous cases of fraud at ATMs where numerous account holder details had been ascertained and used for accessing their bank accounts. Similarly, card fraud was also prevalent for both credit as well as debit functionalities. All these events caused the government to bring in more secure means of transactions for their citizens. Since 2005, Japanese banks have been installing biometrics ATMs at all their key locations. One of the earliest trials was that of the Juhachi Bank

of Nagasaki, which installed a finger-vein biometrics system developed by Hitachi. Today, many of the banks in Japan have palm vein scanners employed at most of their ATMs. The central bank of Japan is still installing biometric scanners across all ATMs in the country as part of the government’s initiative to augment security.2003年，日本出現大量ATM詐騙案，大

量持卡人的詳細資料外泄，被用於支取其賬戶資金。與之類似，偽造銀行卡亦在危害信用卡及借記卡。此類事件促使政府引入更安全的交易措施，保護公民權益。自2005年開始，日本銀行開始在重要地點的 ATM 機上安裝生物測量設備。Nagasaki 的 Juhachi Bank 是最早進行試驗的銀行之一，為 ATM 機安裝日立公司開發的手指靜脈生物測量系統。如今，諸多日本銀行已在多數 ATM 機上安裝手掌靜脈掃描儀。日本中央銀行仍在為國內各地的 ATM 機安裝

生物測量掃描儀，作為政府提高安全保障的努力之一。

Government projects like those of airport security received tremendous support in terms of funding and technology development. Numerous advancements have taken place in the last 3 to 4 years

with the introduction of fingerprint as well as facial recognition systems. The Narita International Airport is one such airport in the country that employs fingerprint and facial recognition biometrics, which check the traveller’s data against a central database. Since 2007 to date, biometric systems have been installed in over 30 airports all over the country. The government has been providing essential support in terms of funding and R&D for improving the security at government installations, airports, stations, office complexes and so on. 機場安全等政府項目在資金及科技發展

方面得到大量支援。過去3至4年內，該領域取得眾多進展，開始引入指紋及面部識別系統。Narita International Airport 採用指紋及面部識別生物測量技術，可參照中央數據庫檢驗旅客資料。自2007年至今，日本國內已有30多個機場安裝生物測量系統。日本政府在資金及研發方面提供重要支援，改善政府機關,機場,車站,辦公樓等設施的安全保障。

The addition of biometrics in mobile phones is another first in the country. In August of 2009, Hitachi unveiled a finger-vein pattern reader with a total thickness of 3 mm and to be installed in mobile devices. Biometric authentication on a mobile handset is not merely for allowing the authorized user to use the device; it also allows the user to use a host of online payment options with easy and safe authentication. This

The Narita International Airport is one such airport in the country that employs fingerprint and facial recognition biometrics, which checks the traveller’s data against a central database


Technology 17

ease of authentication will allow users to easily make transactions for select services without having to go through the normal hassle of remembering numerous passwords, PIN codes, going through verification questions and so on. In such an environment, many parties will want to be part of the value chain in ensuring that their product or services can be purchased online through a mobile phone through biometric verification. 日本還首次在手機領域引入生物測量技

術。2009年8月，日立發佈全新手指靜脈閱讀器，僅3毫米厚，可安裝在移動設備上。手機安裝生物測量身份識別系統後，不僅能確保授權用戶使用設備，還能為用戶提供線上支付功能，實現輕鬆便捷的身份認證。身份識別過程簡化後，用戶可為所選服務輕鬆支付，無需牢記繁瑣的密碼,PIN 碼,驗證問題等。在此全新環境下，將有眾多企業希望成為價值鏈的組成部分，確保手機用戶透過生物測量校驗在線上購買其產品或服務。

Numerous other applications are seeing the entry of biometrics today. Large-scale township projects have started employing biometrics as a standard security device. On an average, a township project will have biometrics access for single entry as well as for outer perimeter security purposes. With township projects becoming more feasible and attractive to the prospective house owner, we can expect to see real estate as a standard sector for biometrics very soon.

如今，諸多其他應用領域亦開始出現生物測量系統。大規模城鎮工程採用生物測量設備作為標準安全設備。一般情況下，城鎮工程會配備生物測量設備確保單次進入，同時確保項目外圍安全。鑒於城鎮工程對潛在購房者的吸引力不斷增加，房地產領域很快亦會普遍採用生物測量系統。The Way Forward發展前景

The Japanese market has the advantage of having minimal privacy issues, and thus less resistance to biometric implementation. Privacy issues in the country have not been strong or potent enough to delay or restrict any security project. As a matter of fact, the public at large has always been open to new technologies that allow for faster and more accurate processing. Numerous institutions are taking advantage of this need for faster processing by bringing in their own loyalty programs. 日本市場私隱問題較少，這是一大優

勢，民眾對採用生物測量技術不會有強烈的抗拒。日本國內的私隱問題從未造成任何安全項目延誤或受限。實際上，多數日本民眾對新科技持開放態度，只要能實現更快速更準確的處理。眾多機構亦執行自己的忠誠度計劃，充分利用新科技處理快速的優勢。

When the SUICA card was introduced for the transit application, many vendors had loaded their applications on to the card as many of the passengers were found to have been using many of the stores in the railway stations. We can expect to see a similar eco system with

advancements in biometrics allowing for faster authentication in large populated areas. SUICA 卡應用於交通領域後，眾多廠商

為卡片提供附加應用功能，因為研究發現，大量乘客經常光顧地鐵站內的店鋪。我們預計，生物測量領域的重大進展即將實現，從而在人流密集地區實現更快速的身份驗證。

The economic recession, in a way, has provided a boost for the security sector and hence the biometrics industry in the country. The safety of physical and logical assets becomes more critical in times of economic duress. The Japanese biometrics market has always had the mantle in developing the most sophisticated and

When the SUICA card was introduced for the transit application, many vendors had loaded their applications on to the card as many of the passengers were found to have been using many of the stores in the railway stations

Technology


18

accurate biometrics systems. As of 2009, the Japanese market contributes close to 22 percent of the revenues from biometric hardware to the total Asia Pacific biometrics market, while the Asia Pacific market contributes a total of 19.8 percent to the global biometrics hardware revenues.經濟衰退在某種程度上推動安全領域發

展，從而推動日本生物測量行業的發展。在經濟低迷時期，實物及邏輯資產的安全更加重要。日本的生物測量市場具備開發最先進最準確生物測量系統的基礎。在2009年，日本市場的生物測量硬體銷售收入佔亞太區生物測量市場總額的近22％，亞太市場則佔全球生物測量硬體收入的19.8％。

The R&D for biometric product development is fairly high in the country allowing for large funds and resources to be allotted for further advancements. In April of 2009, the High–Speed Image–Capture palm vein scanner was

introduced by Fujitsu. Fujitsu developed the world’s first palm vein scanner and improved on the same in April of 2009 when the company made the announcement of their scanners being able to scan an individual’s palm while in motion. The palm vein scanner in itself was a secure biometric device as it would scan the palm vein pattern under the individual’s skin. This ensured that it would be impossible for anyone to falsify any data as it would be impossible to replicate a palm vein pattern. With the introduction of the palm vein scanner which can scan a palm at a speed of one metre per second, the scanner can now be used for a varied number of applications

ranging from mass transit to government/private offices for an overall scan of all the individuals entering a particular zone without any time delay. Advancements like these are made continuously in the country allowing for biometrics to reach out to more applications. With the use of the high speed imaging palm scanner, biometrics can slowly be implemented for high mass transit applications like that of Japanese Rail where more than 2 million commuters pass through the stations everyday. The use of the palm vein scanner for high-speed imaging can also be extended to select stores that use the persons palm scan as the authorizing element for a bill. The user can have an account with the store where after every purchase, the bill amount is deducted. 生物測量產品的研發在日本發展水平較

高，擁有大量資金及資源支

持，推動技術進一步發展。

2009 年 4月，富士通發佈

高速影像捕捉掌紋掃描儀。

富士通曾開發全球首款手

掌靜脈掃描儀，2009 年 4

月又發佈該產品的改進版，

即使人的手掌處於運動中，

新產品仍可掃描手掌靜脈。

手掌靜脈掃描儀本身就是

安全性極高的生物測量設

備，可掃描皮膚下方的手掌

靜脈圖案。由於複製手掌靜

脈圖案毫無可能，該措施

可確保任何人都不能偽造

數據。手掌靜脈掃描儀可以每秒 1米的速

度掃描手掌，該掃描儀可應用於諸多領域，

包括政府或私營企業對出入特定區域的大

量人群進行掃描，無任何時間延誤。類似

科技發展令生物測量技術在日本諸多領域

應用。憑藉高速成像手掌掃描儀，生物測

量技術可逐步應用於日本鐵路等公共交通

領域，為各地站台每天 2百萬的客流服務。

使用手掌靜脈掃描儀可高速生成圖像，如

用戶在特定店鋪設定使用手掌靜脈圖授權，

還可用於支付賬單。用戶可在店鋪設立賬

戶，每次購買都自動扣費。

In 2009, the Japanese market stood at 37 million USD in terms of hardware revenues alone and is expected to reach 59.8 million USD by 2015. The country has numerous bodies that are investing in the advancement and implementation of biometrics across all applications. With the worst of the economic recession over, we can expect to see further new advancements as well as new applications for biometrics in the country. The continual R&D is imperative for the technology to have a wider reach across all segments and this is something that is unique to a country like Japan. Continual research, development, funding and investments will ensure that Japan will continue to lead the world in terms of technological advancement.2009年，日本市場的生物測量硬體銷售額

達到3700萬美元，預計2015年將達到5980萬美元。日本有眾多企業積極投資於生物測量技術的發展，推動各個領域應用此項技術。隨著嚴重的經濟衰退逐漸結束，我們預計日本的生物測量市場將有更新發展，催生全新應用。持續研發對科技擴大覆蓋領域至關重要，而日本在這方面獨具優勢。憑藉持續研究,發展,發現及投資，日本將在科技進步

方面繼續保持全球領先。|AT|

This article was authored by: Navin Rajendra, Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific Smart Cards & AutoID, Frost & Sullivan.本文作者：Frost & Sullivan 亞太地區智能卡及自動 ID 業務部行業分析師

Navin Rajendra

Fujitsu had developed the world’s first palm vein scanner

The Way Forward

The Japanese market has the advantage of having minimal privacy issues, and thus less resistance to biometric implementation. Privacy issues in the country have not been strong or potent enough to delay or restrict any security project. As a matter of fact, the public at large has always been open to new technologies that allow for faster and more accurate processing. Numerous institutions are taking advantage of this need for faster processing by bringing in their own loyalty programs.

When the SUICA card was introduced for the transit application, many vendors had loaded their applications on to the card as many of the passengers were found to have been using many of the stores in the railway stations. We can expect to see a similar eco system with advancements in biometrics allowing for faster authentication in large populated areas.

The economic recession in a way, has provided a boost for the security sector and hence the biometrics industry in the country. The safety of physical and logical assets becomes more critical in times of economic duress. The Japanese biometrics market has always had the mantle in developing the most sophisticated and accurate in biometrics systems. As of 2009, the Japanese market contributes close to 22 percent of the revenues from biometric hardware to the total Asia Pacific biometrics market while the Asia Pacific market contributes a total of 19.8 percent to the global biometrics hardware revenues.

3759.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2015

Japan Biometrics Market: Revenues 2009,2015

CAGR 8.3 %


The R&D for biometric product development is fairly high in the country allowing for large funds and resources to be allotted for further advancements. In April of 2009, the High – Speed Image – Capture palm vein scanner by Fujitsu. Fujitsu had developed the world’s first palm vein scanner and had improved on the same in April of 2009 when the company made the announcement of their scanners being able to scan an individual’s palm while in motion. The palm vein scanner in itself was a secure biometric device as it would scan the palm vein pattern under the individual’s skin. This insured that it would be impossible for anyone to falsifying any data as it would be impossible to replicate a palm vein pattern. With the introduction of the palm vein scanner which can scan a palm at a speed of 1

The Way Forward

The Japanese market has the advantage of having minimal privacy issues, and thus less resistance to biometric implementation. Privacy issues in the country have not been strong or potent enough to delay or restrict any security project. As a matter of fact, the public at large has always been open to new technologies that allow for faster and more accurate processing. Numerous institutions are taking advantage of this need for faster processing by bringing in their own loyalty programs.

When the SUICA card was introduced for the transit application, many vendors had loaded their applications on to the card as many of the passengers were found to have been using many of the stores in the railway stations. We can expect to see a similar eco system with advancements in biometrics allowing for faster authentication in large populated areas.

The economic recession in a way, has provided a boost for the security sector and hence the biometrics industry in the country. The safety of physical and logical assets becomes more critical in times of economic duress. The Japanese biometrics market has always had the mantle in developing the most sophisticated and accurate in biometrics systems. As of 2009, the Japanese market contributes close to 22 percent of the revenues from biometric hardware to the total Asia Pacific biometrics market while the Asia Pacific market contributes a total of 19.8 percent to the global biometrics hardware revenues.

3759.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2015

Japan Biometrics Market: Revenues 2009,2015

CAGR 8.3 %


The R&D for biometric product development is fairly high in the country allowing for large funds and resources to be allotted for further advancements. In April of 2009, the High – Speed Image – Capture palm vein scanner by Fujitsu. Fujitsu had developed the world’s first palm vein scanner and had improved on the same in April of 2009 when the company made the announcement of their scanners being able to scan an individual’s palm while in motion. The palm vein scanner in itself was a secure biometric device as it would scan the palm vein pattern under the individual’s skin. This insured that it would be impossible for anyone to falsifying any data as it would be impossible to replicate a palm vein pattern. With the introduction of the palm vein scanner which can scan a palm at a speed of 1


Natural Resources 19

ideal for use in mobile phones, laptop computers and cameras.釹、銪、鋱……這些金屬看來陌生，但

它們卻憑藉自身特性，而成為製造手機、

手提電腦和照相機的理想材料。

They are also found in a wide range of industrial applications, including several types of lasers, coloured glass, x-ray tubes and even fluorescent lights.

Minerals and energyset to doMinate rare earths Market

作者/by Ian Porter

格陵蘭礦產能源公司：稀土市場新霸主


focused attention on a low-profile sector of the world mining industry – rare earths.隨著便攜式電子設備需求的增長，以及

電動汽車大規模生產時代即將來臨，稀土

這個世界採礦行業相對冷門的領域，正在

引起高度重視。

These little-known metals, such as neo-dymium, europium and terbium, possess a range of characteristics that makes them

A smAll AustrAliAn compAny is set to make a big impression in the world rare earths market. Greenland Miner-als and Energy is developing the largest known deposit of rare earths and, thanks to the presence of uranium in the ore, the Kvanefjeld project will pay for itself in three years and eventually generate $US1 billion of free cash flow a year.

一家名不見經傳的澳洲公司也許會在世界稀

土市場掀起巨浪。格陵蘭礦產能源公司正在

開發世界上已知最大的稀土礦，而且因為礦

石中蘊含鈾元素，這個名為「Kvanefjeld」

的項目將在三年內收回成本，最終每年可創

造 10億美元的自由現金流量。

The growing demand for portable elec-tronic devices, and the imminent arrival of the mass produced electric vehicle, have

19 Natural Resources


20 Natural Resources

它們具有廣泛的工業用途，包括激光、

有色玻璃、X射線管、熒光燈等。

Products using rare earths are all around us, and demand is set to grow because they are also used in lithium-ion batteries, which will be used to power the new wave of electric vehicles.在我們身邊隨處可見採用稀土的產品，

比如電動汽車上的鋰電池就是稀土製造。

隨著電動汽車時代的到來，稀土需求量必

將增長。

However, in the last two years concerns have been raised about the world supply of these metals and their availability in future.然而最近兩年，人們對世界稀土的供應

及其能否滿足未來之需產生了擔憂。

China is the largest producer by far, mining 65 per cent of the rare earths used by industry around the world. It also im-ports ore for smelting, which means China smelts 95 per cent of all rare earth metals.

目前中國是世界最大的稀土生產國，全

世界所用的稀土有 65% 產自中國。中國還

進口礦石來冶煉稀土金屬，其產量佔世界

的 95%。

Concerns about future supplies of rare earths were heightened in 2009 when Chinese officials imposed restrictions on the export of some metals in a bid to encourage on-shore processing in the Chinese region of Mongolia, where most of China’s rare earths are mined.2009 年中國政府下令限制某些金屬出口，

目的是把它們留在本國的內蒙古地區（中

國主要的稀土產地）加工，此舉引發了對

未來稀土供應的擔憂。

This sparked off a massive exploration effort by mining companies around the world, but one small Australian company, Greenland Minerals and Energy, was well ahead in the race to produce rare earths.於是，世界各地的礦業公司掀起一波勘

探熱潮，在此過程中，一家名為「格陵蘭

礦產能源公司」的澳洲小公司，

走在了稀土開發的最前列。

The small Australia-based outfit was already working to define a massive orebody at Kvanefjeld in the emerg-ing state of Greenland, which could transform the supply and demand equation in the world rare earths market.該公司已圈定一座規模可觀

的礦床，它位於格陵蘭島的

Kvanefjeld，將來世界稀土市場

的供需平衡也許會因它而改變。

“Kvanefjeld is a very special rare earths project,” Greenland Minerals and Energy (GME) managing director Roderick McIllree said.「Kvanefjeld 是一個十分特別的稀土項

目，」格陵蘭礦產能源公司（GME）董事總經

理麥毅力說道：

“It is the largest measured occurrence of rare earths in the world,” although he points out that China has never detailed the extent of its rare earth deposits.「它是世界上最大的稀土礦點。」不過他亦

指出，中國從未透露過其稀土礦藏的詳情。

And that’s not the end of it, Mr. McIll-ree said. “There could be several similar sized additional deposits in the area, this is something we will work on during 2010.”除此之外，麥毅力說：「該地區可能還有

幾個規模相若的礦床，這是我們 2010 年的

工作重點。」

The excitement in the exploration industry was reflected on the Australian

The excitement in the exploration industry was reflected on the Australian share market

share market. GME’s share price has jumped from below 20 Australian cents in March 2009 to more than 90 Australian cents early in 2010. It is currently around 50 Australian cents, valuing the company at $A126 million ($US116 million).這個令人振奮的勘探發現反映在澳洲的股

市之中。GME的股價從 2009 年 3月的不到

20澳仙，一路飆升到 2010 年初的 90澳仙

以上，現在穩定於 50澳仙左右，公司市值

達到 1.26 億澳元（1.16 億美元）。

Based on a thorough drilling program, it is believed the Kvanefjeld deposit on the southern tip of Greenland contains 4.57 million tonnes of rare earth ore, including an unusually high relative ratio of around 17 per cent heavy rare earths.根據一份詳盡的鑽探計劃，據估計格陵

蘭島南端的 Kvanefjeld 礦蘊含 457 萬噸稀

土礦石，其中有品位達 17% 左右的重稀土

礦，十分罕見。


Natural Resources 21

If it was mined and purified, the Kvanefjeld deposit would yield 4.9 mil-lion tonnes of rare earths. But that’s not the whole story because there are other metals in the Kvanefjeld ore.經過開採和提煉，Kvanefjeld 礦可產出

490 萬噸稀土礦石。但這還不是全部，因

為 Kvanefjeld 的礦石中還含有其他金屬。

The deposit would also yield almost one million tonnes of zinc and 128,000 tonnes of uranium yellowcake.從中還能采出接近 100 萬噸的鋅和 12.8

萬噸的鈾「黃餅」。

However, there is a catch for GME. The Kvanefjeld project would only be viable if GME was allowed to concentrate and sell the uranium, but Greenland currently has a policy banning uranium mining.GME 面前有一道障礙，因為要想使

Kvanefjeld 項目具有商業價值，公司必須

獲准濃縮和出售鈾，然而格陵蘭現在根本

不准開採鈾礦。

Mr McIllree was optimistic about this, pointing out the Greenland parlia-ment had just approved a new license under their new Greenlandic mining act. This was a “clear signal” he says that the government wishes to work with the company to resolve the issues. Green-land recently gained independence from Denmark with the mineral and oil rights transferred from the Crown of Denmark to the Greenland on January 1 this year.但是麥毅力卻不擔心，他說格陵蘭議會

已根據新的格陵蘭礦業法，批准了一個新

的許可牌照。他稱這是一個「清楚的信號」，

展現出政府想與該公司共同解決問題的誠

意。格陵蘭已脫離丹麥獨立，從今年 1月

1日起丹麥把格陵蘭的礦產和石油相關權

利移交給了格陵蘭。

“Based on this, the company has de-cided to proceed with a significant field season during 2010 involving approxi-mately 10-15,000m of diamond core and, at the end of 2010, we look forward to a satisfactory resolution which will allow GME to start work on its bankable feasi-bility study,” Mr McIllree said.「因此，公司決定在 2010 年進行一次重

要的野外勘探，大約覆蓋 10-15,000 米的

礦區。到 2010 年底，我們希望得到一個令

人滿意的結果，這樣 GME 便可開始銀行融

資可行性研究。」麥毅力如是說道。

There would be significant benefits for Greenland if the $US2.3 billion Kvanefjeld project went ahead, Mr McIll-ree said.

麥毅力又指，假如總投資 23 億美元的

Kvanefjeld 項目順利實施，那麼格陵蘭島

將會受益匪淺。

The total investment would include the creation of a new hydro-electric power station which would power the mine and large parts of southern Greenland and the building of roads and a new port, some US$450m is slated to be spent on infrastructure in the region. 投資內容包括興建一座水力發電廠，為

礦山和格陵蘭島南部許多地區提供電力，

還要建造多條公路和一座新港口。預計將

有 4.5 億美元投入本地區的基礎建設。 .

Crucially, the mine would generate company tax for the Government of around $US150 million for the Green-land government, which would help to replace a large part of the annual grant of $US600 million that Denmark has been contributing to Greenland’s financ-es. Added to this is the general 3 times multiplier effect throughout the local region and you have one very significant contributer to the countries GDP最關鍵的是，這座礦山每年可為格陵蘭

政府帶來大約 1.5 億美元的稅收，抵得上

很大一部份來自丹麥的撥款。目前，丹麥

每年向格陵蘭財政撥款 6億美元。另外，

這還能給本地區帶來三倍的乘數效應，對

該國的 GDP 而言是非常有力的推動。

The main concerns for the company go-ing forward are environmental and social impact issues however in this regard we are no different from any other mining operation throughout the world. McILl-ree said “all mining projects live or die according to these issues. We are well ad-vanced on these and when the questions are asked the company will be ready”. The main concerns appear to whether the company can effectively manage the waste streams of the process which will contain fluorine and thorium. Once again though Mcillree says this is in hand.對公司來說，亟待解決的是環境和社會

影響問題。在這一點上，全世界的礦業公

司概莫能外。麥毅力說：「這些問題決定了

所有採礦項目的生與死，而我們對此胸有

成竹，我們將做好解決問題的準備。」由於

生產過程產生的廢物中包含氟和釷，所以

能否有效管理廢物就顯得格外重要。麥毅

力說公司有能力解決這個問題。

“The Danish Atomic Energy Agency did a lot of work on ore from this area be-tween 1975 and 1983,” Mr McIllree said.

The deposit would also yield almost one million tonnes of zinc and 128,000 tonnes of uranium yellowcake.


Natural Resources22

of all capital requirements and also cover the more expensive recovery of Rare Earths.麥毅力說，單是每年生產的鈾就足

以滿足全部資本開支之需，還可以彌

補開採稀土的昂貴成本。

He said that meant the rare earths would essentially be free to the com-pany, giving it great pricing flexibility when selling onto the world market.他說這相當於公司不花一分錢就得

到了稀土，所以在與世界市場打交道

時有極大的價格靈活性。

“We will be producing between 20 and 30 per cent of the world’s rare earths and we expect that market share will come as higher cost produc-ers are forced from the market place.”「我們的產量將佔到世界稀土總產

量的 20%-30%，隨著高成本廠商被迫

退出，我們的市場份額將越大越來。」

Mr McIllree said, based on exisit-ing uranium and rare earth prices, that GME would recoup its entire investment in Kvanefjeld in the first three years of operation. That is an astonishing forecast.麥毅力表示，按當前的鈾和稀土價

格計算，GME 可以在投產三年內收回

Kvanefjeld 的全部投資。這是個令人瞠目

的預測。

“I am confident that when Kvanefjeld is fully operational, it will be throwing off in excess of $US1 billion a year in free cash flow.「我相信 Kvanefjeld 全面投產後，每年

可創造超過 10 億美元的自由現金流量。」

“It is a very unique opportunity.”「這是一個十分難得的機遇。」|AT|

「從 1975 年到 1983 年，丹麥原子能機構

對這一帶的礦石做了許多工作，」麥毅力表

示：

“They developed a separation process which stabilises these elements into non soluable form (a stable silicate). That means they cannot be leached into the water table.”「他們研究出一種分離工藝，能把這些元

素穩定下來，變成不可溶解的形式（一種

穩定的矽酸鹽），這樣它們就不會滲到地下

水中。」

The main concerns for the company going forward are environmental and social impact issues however in this regard we are no different from any other mining operation throughout the world

He said the background radiation around the tailings was unlikely to be higher than the existing level due to the removal of the Uranium.他說尾礦周圍的背景輻射不會因為鈾的

去除而高於當前水平。

“The orebody is at the surface because this ground has been eroded by ice sheets over thousands of years. That means a lot of this ore has been shedding uranium bearing material throughout the region with material also carried downhill over time, which means the background radia-tion downstream from the orebody is the same as at Kvanefjeld.”「因為數千年來土地被冰層所侵蝕，造成

現在的礦體位於地表，於是整個地區佈滿

含有鈾元素的礦石，隨著時間推移，這些

物質又向下移動，因此礦體的下游背景輻

射基本與 Kvanefjeld 相若。」

The fact that there is little of no overburden means that mining will be comparatively cheap. That, and the size of the whole deposit, will make Kvanefjeld a very profitable mine, early indications are that there is a 1:1 waste to ore strip ratio for the life of mine.因為表土很薄，所以採礦成本低廉，再

加上整個礦床的規模，使得 Kvanefjeld 的

盈利前景十分可觀。據初步指標顯示，在

礦山壽命期限內，礦石與廢物的剝離比率

可達 1:1。

Mr McIllree said the uranium produced annually would be sufficient to cover the cost


23

RSI

SignalMACD

GGG . AX 20-day MA 50-day MA200-day MA

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1100

80

50

20

00.10

0.05

0.00

-0.05

May 09 Jul 09 Sept 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10

May 09 Jul 09 Sept 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10

The price proceeds to climb up and maintain the upward trend. The MA demonstrated the solid buy signal in late November, 2009, the short-term average (20-day) crossing above the medium-term average (50-day), with upward momentum, which in line with the MACD showing some divergences to the EMA signal. Since middle of February, 2010, the short-term MA has slightly declined and crossed below the medium-term MA again, indicating further downward sloping of the price in short run. This could have been cause by profit taking. However, as the long-term MA (200-day) still maintaining upward sloping with the MACD indicating some divergence above the signal, the price is expected to be bouncing up in the near future. 股價逐步上漲，保持升勢。2009年11

月移動平均線發出明確買入信號，當時短期均線（20日）向上穿越中期均線（50日），顯露上升趨勢，MACD與EMA信號有所背離。自2010年2月中旬起，短期均線輕微下挫，並再次向下穿越中期均線，預示短線看跌。這可能是獲利回吐所致。然而，由於長期均線（200日）依然向上，且MACD仍有背離，所以近期股價有望反彈。

There is firm support at the 0.50 AUD level, even though this has been tested few times in the past weeks. Each time the price touches or drops below this support, we can see a 10% - 15% recovery. The stock does encounter resistance 0.60 AUD level, however, breaking through this price will set the stage for a significant run, possibly setting new highs. 過去幾周股價屢次下探0.50一帶，可

見此處有強力支撐。每次下探或跌破此處，均能反彈10%-15%。上檔阻力位是0.60，若能成功突破，則後市行情可期，有可能再創新高。

Strategy策略

MACD still firmly signals buy and the RSI has not demonstrated overbought. Buy when the short-term MA (20-day) bounces back to cross above the medium-term MA (50-day). MACD買入信號依然強烈，RSI並未

呈現超買。短期均線（20日）回升並穿越中期均線（50日），即為買入良機。 |AT|

Investor Overview

There is much Talk abouT the G-2 that will replace the former G-7 or G-8. The reference is, of course, to the U.S. and China determining between the two of them the fate of the global economy.

有關 G2 將取代 G7 或 G8 的言論不絕於耳，

言下之意是說美國和中國將主宰世界經濟的

命運。

It is indeed possible that before 2010 is over, the U.S. and China will be the two largest economies in the world. In 2008, the U.S. had a GDP of $14.4 tril-lion, Japan had $4.9 trillion, while China posted $4.3 trillion. With the U.S. and Japan succumbing to the Great Reces-sion of the last two years while China hardly experienced a blip, it is a certainty

that China will surpass Japan in GDP in the course of this year. With the U.S. facing the possibility of a double-dip recession in the next year or so and Japan probably seeing a repetition of its lost decade in the 1990s, China will clearly outshine the G-2 of the last century.此言非虛，因為 2010 年美國和中國將是

世界上最大的兩個經濟體。2008 年，美國

的 GDP 為 14.4 萬億美元，日本 4.9 萬億

美元，中國則是 4.3 萬億美元。過去兩年，

美國和日本深陷經濟衰退，而中國的經濟

列車只是稍微減速，便又疾馳而去，所以

今年中國的 GDP 趕超日本已成定局。明年

前後美國經濟可能二次探底，而日本也許

會重演九十年代「失落的十年」，因此中國

無疑比上世紀的 G2 更加風光無限。

Given the widespread expectation that U.S. demand will stay subdued for a while,

especially as regards consumer spend-ing, the U.S. can hardly be expected to be part of the dynamic duo. A more likely partner of China in stimulating the world economy is its giant neighbour, India. In


Another Version of G-224 Economy

作者/by Bernardo Villegas

新版雙雄會新版雙雄會

經濟體之一。報告指出「迅速的財政和貨

幣放鬆，加上原有的財政刺激，以及金融

市場風險喜好的恢復，使得經濟增長回歸

到接近危機之前的水平。先行指標顯示，

產出缺口繼續縮小。資金流入恢復升勢，

金融市場基本收復失地。」

India is the only major economy in the world that has joined China in recover-ing lost ground suffered during the Great Recession within a year. China was back to its pre-crisis growth of 9 to 10 percent as early as the fourth quarter of 2009. Simi-larly, GDP growth in India is projected to rise from 6.75 percent in 2009 to 8 percent in 2010, which was its pre-crisis average growth rate. Its economy may temporarily face the challenge of the ongoing drought, but the IMF estimates that non-agricul-tural GDP growth is expected to gather

an IMF report that appeared last Febru-ary 4, 2010, India’s economy was cited as one of the first in the world to recover after the global crisis. To quote from the IMF report, “Prompt fiscal and monetary easing, combined with the fiscal stimulus already in the pipeline and the return of risk appetite in financial markets, have brought growth close to pre-crisis levels. Leading indicators suggest the output gap will continue to close. Capital inflows are back on the rise, and financial markets have regained most of the lost ground.”由於需求萎靡不振，尤其是消費者開支

難見起色，美國在經濟雙雄的寶座上恐難

久坐。反倒是中國身邊的強鄰印度，更有

希望與中國一道引領世界經濟增長。2010

年 2 月 4 日國際貨幣基金組織發佈報告稱，

印度是全球危機後世界上最先開始復甦的

momentum. Private consumption will be boosted by brighter employment prospects and less uncertainty. Investment is expect-ed to benefit from robust corporate profits, rising business confidence, and favourable financing conditions. As advanced econo-mies like the U.S. and Japan grow below trend, India is expected to expand at 7 to 8 percent in the medium term.全球衰退時期，印度是除中國之外唯一

能在一年內恢復元氣的主要經濟體。中

國早在 2009 年第四季度就恢復到危機前

9-10% 的增長速度，而印度則有望從 2009

年的 6.75%，加快到 2010 年的 8%，這亦是

危機前的平均增速。雖然大旱給經濟造成

一時的困難，但國際貨幣基金組織預料印

度的非農經濟增長將會提速。良好的就業

前景和不確定因素的消退，利於促進民間

消費；強勁的企業盈利 ,上升的商業信心，

以及良好的融資環境，則利於促進投資。

當美國 ,日本等發達經濟體增長放緩之際，

印度的中期增長速度有望達到 7-8%。

The two giant economies in Asia can play a major role in rebalancing the global economy. As the largest economy in the world, the U.S. suffers from unsustain-able fiscal and current accounts deficits, and other large markets in the world must replace the American consumers as the global economic engine. As Master Card chief economist Yuwa Hedrick-Wong wrote in Consumption Trends in the US and China (1Q2010), “the global imbal-ance of over-consumption in the U.S. and under-consumption in much of Asia, in particular China, from which so many macro economic ills are seen to have ema-nated, is also deemed a major contributing factor to the global financial crisis. The imbalance undoubtedly exists. In early 2008, private household consumption in the U.S. accounted for about 72 percent of GDP, and, in sharp contrast, it was 37 percent in China. The shock of the global financial crisis pushed American house-holds to start saving more and consuming


Economy 25

G-2

Photo © : www.fReshnet.tw

Master Card chief economist Yuwa Hedrick-Wong

less. Household savings rose from negative in 2008 to around 5 percent by mid-2009 in the U.S. The Chinese government, on the other hand, responded to the global crisis by actively promoting higher house-hold consumption through a combination of subsidies on auto and consumer durable purchases, and significant increases in spending on public health, education, and retirement pensions.”這對亞洲雙雄將在全球經濟重新平衡的

過程中發揮重要作用。作為世界第一經濟

體，如今美國深受難以維繫的財政和經常

項目赤字所困，這就需要其他大國挺身而

出，取代美國充當世界經濟的引擎。萬事

達卡首席經濟學家王月魂在「美國和中國

的消費趨勢」（2010 年第一季度）中寫道：

「美國的過度消費，以及以中國為代表的亞

洲大多數國家的消費不足，二者所造成的

全球失衡是許多宏觀經濟弊病的根源，也

是這次全球金融危機的一個主要誘因。這

種失衡無疑是存在的，2008 年初美國的私

人家庭消費約佔 GDP 的 72%，反差強烈的

是中國僅有 37%。在全球金融危機衝擊下，

美國家庭開始精打細算，節省開支，全國

家庭儲蓄從 2008 年的負數，上升到 2009

年中期的 5% 左右。另一方面，中國政府為

應對全球危機而大力促進家庭消費，除了

給汽車和耐用品消費提供補貼，還大幅增

加公共衛生 ,教育和養老方面的投入。」

Dr. Hedrick-Wong corrects the false im-pression that the high savings rate of China (about 50 percent of GDP) is primarily due to Chinese households. He says that the real culprit for China’s high savings is the

corporate sector. On average, the corporate sector accounted for up to 60 percent of China’s aggregate savings in recent years. Although the 20 percent of disposable income Chinese households save is above-average for developing economies, there are solid reasons for postponing consumption. They save for precautionary reasons such as making provision for future health care and education needs for their children. The one-child policy increases the motivation to save: parents prefer better quality, but expensive, private health care should their only child get sick. And they are prepared to pay for private tuition and even a private school education to ensure that their single child is successful in the future. This above-average propensity to save is also explained by the very slow growth in wages.王博士糾正了中國家庭是中國高儲蓄率

（約為 GDP 的一半）的支柱這個誤解。他

說中國高儲蓄率的真正原因其實在企業部

門，近年來企業部門在中國儲蓄總額中所

佔的比重平均達到 60%。在中國，大約 20%

的可支配家庭收入都會變成存款，這在發

展中國家是很高的，有幾個原因使人不敢

消費，比如求醫看病和子女教育，所以百

姓得把錢積攢起來以備不時之需。獨生子

女政策加深了人們的儲蓄心理：子女生病，

家長都想讓子女得到高質素的私人醫護服

務，即使費用高昂也在所不惜；另外，因

為望子成龍心切，許多家長都花錢聘請私

人教師，甚至供子女上私立學校。還有一

個原因導致了高儲蓄率，那就是工資增長

非常緩慢。

The Chinese Government has realized the potential of increased consumption compensating for sluggish exports. A fiscal stimu-lus package has jump-started the increase in spending on social wel-fare, especially in health, education and pensions. All these address the main reasons Chinese households have been reluctant to spend in the past. There will surely be more social welfare spending by the Government in the future as well as a comprehensive tax reform that will require large state-owned en-terprises to pay dividends to their shareholders, the government, and royalties paid for resource extraction. The additional revenue accruing to the Government will be used to fund the higher social

welfare spending. It is also expected that income tax will be lowered for the house-holds.意識到通過增加消費來彌補出口萎縮的

機遇，中國政府出台財政刺激計劃，加大

對社會民生尤其是衛生 ,教育和養老的投

入，旨在解決過去困擾中國家庭消費的難

題。今後政府還要增加社會民生開支，及

實施全面的稅務改革，要求大型國有企業

向股東和政府分派紅利和繳納資源稅。政

府收入增加後，可以把更多資金投向社會

民生領域。另外，普通家庭的所得稅也有

望下調。

These policy measures have a high chance of success in lifting con-sumption spending, considering the track record the Chinese Government had in 2009 in pump priming, in stark contrast with the very limited results of an even larger amount of a fiscal stimulus in the U.S. In 2009, the Chinese Government spent substantial amounts to get consum-


Economy26

In 2009, the Chinese Government spent substantial amounts to get consumers to buy manufactured goods

ers to buy manufactured goods. China budgeted three times as much as the U.S. on subsidies for car purchases, as noted by Thilo Hanemann, an analyst for Rhodium Group. The U.S. set aside $3 billion for its “cash-for-clunkers” program and $1.7 billion for a tax deduction on car pur-chases. China, on the other hand, pumped $14.8 billion in the form of tax breaks and subsidies for car purchases. Predict-ably, the response was dramatic: Sales of cars eligible for the break skyrocketed by 63 percent by October of 2009. A trade-in program to subsidize home appliance purchases produced $1.3 billion in sales by the end of November 2009. All these demonstrate that the Chinese Government can stimulate household spending among Chinese households so as to rebalance the global economy, as the U.S. consum-ers increase their savings rate and the U.S. Government works to limit the horrendous fiscal deficit.

從 2009 年中國政府刺激經濟的效果來

看，這些政策措施可望在促進消費開支方

面發揮成效，而不像美國的財政刺激那樣

雷聲大雨點小。2009 年，中國政府大力促

進消費者購買製造品。榮鼎集團的分析師

蒂洛·哈納曼表示，中國安排的購車補貼

預算是美國的三倍。美國推出 30 億美元的

汽車以舊換新補貼計劃，並削減汽車購置

稅 17 億美元；而中國的購車補貼和減稅加

在一起高達 148 億美元，結果立竿見影：

截止到 2009 年 10 月優惠政策使汽車銷量

飆升 63%。與此同時，家用電器以舊換新

補貼計劃也提振了家電銷量，截至 2009 年

11 月末銷售額達 13 億美

元。所有這些都表明中國

政府有能力激發國內家庭

消費，同時，隨著美國消

費者增加儲蓄，美國政府

控制巨額財政赤字，這樣

全球經濟便可恢復平衡。

But China cannot do it alone. It will have to depend on its non-identical twin (as far as consumption spending is concerned) India to do the rebalancing.


Economy 27

Fortunately, India is even more of a consumer-oriented economy than China. Its private consumption as a percentage of GDP has been traditionally much higher than China at close to 60 percent. Of course, the downside of this high rate of consumption spending has been the inability of the Indian government to endow the country with the top-class infrastructure that is so visible in China. As James Lamont wrote in the Financial Times (February 5, 2010), India is now identified together with China as one of the few poles of growth worldwide. From the standpoint of consumption, it has a more attractive domestic market because its economy is mainly driven by demand from its 1.2 billion people rather than exports. As a force for rebalancing the world economy, India has emerged as a source of demand with higher spending on infrastructure, measures for its rural population and a growing middle class. Even if India’s GDP is only about one-fourth of that of China, its total consumer spending is approximately one-half of China’s. Thilo Hanemann

Photo © : www.xIng.com

China and India together, however, they can act as catalysts to get the emerging markets to equip their middle classes with sufficient purchasing power to at least reduce the dampening effects of the medium-term stagnation of the U.S., Japan and some of the members of the European Union suffering from very high fiscal and current accounts deficits (such as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain). The two populous Asian coun-tries can be a G-2 for the BRIC and the Next 11 countries made popular by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs. Especially together with the ASEAN that has a total population of more than 600 mil-lion consumers, this new version of the G-2 can rebalance the global economy within the next decade. For comments, my email address is [email protected] 我們當然不能把世界復甦的希望都寄託在

中國身上。誠如《時代》雜誌的封面故事

（2009 年 8月 10日）所言：「中國可以幫忙，

但是相對來說中國畢竟還是一個窮國，人

均年收入僅 6,000 美元，而美國和歐盟則

有 39,000 美元和 33,400 美元。那些在中

國大城市裏比較穩定的中產階層，人均年

收入可以達到 12,000 美元左右。與汽車

銷售火爆不同的是，大多數的中國老百姓

還是買不起一輛大眾或者別克，更不消說

寶馬了…北京大學的 Pettis 說，去年中

國的消費總量與法國相當，但從來沒人期

望法國拯救世界。」確實，從來沒人期望

法國拯救世界。不過，倘若中印兩國的消

費市場加在一起，則其實力不容小覷，這

些新興市場的中產階層擁有充裕的購買

力，至少可以減輕美國 ,日本和一些歐盟

成員國（如意大利 ,希臘 ,西班牙）因為

龐大的財政和經常項目赤字，導致經濟陷

入中期停滯所產生的負面衝擊。在高盛的

吉姆·奧尼爾創造並風靡世界的「金磚四

國」和「金鑽 11國」概念中，中印兩個

亞洲的人口大國可充當領頭羊的角色，再

加上擁有六億多消費者的東盟，新版 G2

將如虎添翼，必能引領全球經濟於未來十

年重新平衡。歡迎發送電郵至本人郵箱

[email protected] 發表意見。|AT|

然而，僅靠中國一己之力，未免勢單力薄。

假如中印聯手（在消費開支上），則恢復平

衡指日可待。可喜的是，印度比中國更傾

向於消費型經濟，其私人消費佔 GDP 的比

重接近 60%，向來比中國高出許多。當然，

旺盛的消費開支亦有其不利一面，那就是

印度政府無力建造像中國那樣優良的基礎

設施。詹姆士·拉蒙特在《金融時報》（2010

年 2 月 5 日）上寫道，現在印度已與

中國一起被公認是世界少數幾個增長

極之一。從消費角度看，印度的國內

市場更為誘人，因為印度經濟的主動

力來自 12 億人口的需求，而不是出

口。作為重新平衡世界經濟的重要力

量，印度已成為需求的發源地，這歸

功於其基建開支的擴大，惠農措施的

推行，以及中產階層的興起。雖然印

度的 GDP 只有中國的四分之一，但消

費開支總規模卻是中國的一半。

China obviously cannot drag the rest of the world into a recovery all by its own. As a TIME Maga-zine cover story (August 10, 2009) aptly remarked, “China can help. But it remains a relatively poor country, with an annual per capita income of $6,000, compared with $39,000 in the U.S. and $33,400 in the E.U. To be solidly middle class in China’s big cities is to have an income of about $12,000. Brisk though auto sales may be, most

Chinese still can’t afford a Volkswagen or a Buick, let alone a BMW. Last year, says Peking University’s Pettis, China’s consumption was about the equivalent of France’s. No one is calling on France to save the world.” True, no one is call-ing on France to save the world. If we put the consumer market powers of


Economy28

China obviously cannot drag the rest of the world into a recovery all by its own

Bird’s eye view of Shanghai Pudong at night

| ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Industry 29ANZ’s MAchiNesAfety MArket -

driveN oN A fAst-trAck

Safety, in termS of human and machine “health” and environmental protection, has moved to the forefront of critical topics for manufacturers due to increased awareness of its strategic value.

就人員與機器的「健康」及環保而言，隨

著其戰略價值得到越來越多的認識，安全

已進入製造商的話題前沿。

Workplace issues such as human error, inadequate training, hazardous materials, and so on need to be addressed adequately as manufacturing environments are gener-ally at great risk in terms of safety and compliance with safety regulations. Any of these issues that hinder the work flow pose a potential negative influence on the company’s prospective prosperity.工作場所裏可能會出現人為錯誤 ,訓練

不足 ,危險物品等問題，這些問題需予以

充份重視，因為製造環境通常在安全和遵

守安全法規方面存在較大風險隱患。這些

有礙工作進行的問題均可能對公司未來的

前景造成負面影響。

The machine safety market is one of the fastest growing segments in Australia and New Zealand owing to increasing awareness, and therefore pressure by the end users. In the face of this driver, there’s been growth opportunities that has seen a restructuring of the leadership posi-tions in the market, but a high level of fragmentation still exists. The demands of globalized, highly competitive markets have resulted in immense pressure to re-duce manufacturing and process produc-tion costs. Changing business imperatives have affected organization-wide spending. Currently, there is a shift from capital expenditures to operational expenditures, with the focus on achieving operational excellence. In order to help their cause, suppliers must increase their value propo-sition to users and machine builders.隨著澳洲和紐西蘭機器安全意識的提升，

加上來自終端用戶的壓力，機器安全市場

已然成為兩國發展最為迅猛的行業之一。

面對這一趨勢，市場領先者遭遇重新洗牌

的可能性上升，但市場分散水平仍然較高。

隨市場全球化進程加速及競爭日趨激烈，

降低製造和加工生產成本的壓力日趨明顯。

不斷變化的業務需要已經影響到了企業的

整體開支。目前資本開支呈現出向營運開

支轉變的苗頭，而重點則是放在提升營運

水平之上。為此，供應商必須提高對用戶

及機械製造商的價值主張。

澳紐機器安全市場—

步入快車道作者/by Vandhana Venkatesan

APRIL 2010

Industry


30

整個東南亞 ,澳洲和紐西蘭的機器安全

市場有望於預測期內在目前的收入基礎上

翻番，因為該地區將會大規模成立製造廠。

This market does face a few challenges like a lack of skilled manpower to operate modern machine safety products, lack of awareness of the latest technologies and of compliance lev-els to stringent safety standards. These factors call for a parallel consulting service that would turn these challenges into driving forces in the market. The importance of quality, price, and service is increasing as the market becomes more competitive. The major companies in this market are Omron, Rockwell Automa-tion, SICK AG, Siemens, and PILZ. There is immense scope for up technological up grades, product development and innovation that will give the competitors an edge over other market participants.當然，這個市場也存在不少挑戰，如能夠

操作現代機器安全產品的技術人才稀缺 ,對

最新科技的認識不足及遵守嚴格安全標準的

程度不夠。因此需要配套諮詢服務，幫助

企業將挑戰轉變為前進動力。隨著市場競

爭力加劇，品質 ,價格和服務的重要性與日

劇增。活躍於該市場的大公司包括歐姆龍,

羅克韋爾自動化 ,西克麥哈克 ,西門子和皮

爾磁。這些公司在提升技術等級 ,產品研

發和創新方面仍有較大發展空間，這將成為

他們超越其他市場參與者的優勢。

This article was authored by Vandhana Venkatesan, Research Associate, Asia Pacific Industrial Automation & Process Control Practice, Frost & Sullivan.本文作者：Vandhana Venkatesan(Frost

& Sullivan 亞太地區工業自動化和工藝過

程控制分部助理研究員 )。 |AT|

商。由於意識增強，加上需要遵守 IEC

61508,IEC 61511 等標準，使得機器安全

部成為製造廠商中一個必不可少的部門。

製藥 ,電子和半導體行業在澳紐逐漸發展

壯大，其速度不輸於東南亞諸國。儘管澳

紐的機器安全市場已趨於成熟，但在機器

安全產品方面仍有巨大商機有待挖掘，如

光幕 ,安全地毯 ,掃描儀和安全互鎖開關。

The ANZ business sector has respond-ed quickly to the disruptions to global growth and financial markets in the late 2008 and early 2009.2008 年末及 2009 年初全球經濟遭遇寒

流，金融市場一片混亂，澳紐的業務部門

迅速作出調整。

The total Southeast Asia and Australia and New Zealand machine safety market is expected to double the current revenue base during the forecast period, as the region is considered to present huge potential for the setting up of manufacturing units.

Australia and New Zealand attracts large-scale manufacturers in automo-tive, food and beverage, packaging and material handling industries. Owing to increased awareness coupled with the need to comply with standards such as IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, has made machine safety a compulsory body in any manufacturing unit. The pharmaceutical, electronics and semi conductors industries are gradually growing in ANZ in tandem with similar growth in the other South-east Asian countries. Though the machine safety market in ANZ is considered a maturing market, there is still a wide op-portunity gap that manufacturers can tap on for machine safety products such as light curtains, safety mats, scanners and safety interlock switches. 澳洲和紐西蘭吸引了大量來自汽車 ,食

品和飲料 ,包裝和材料處理行業的製造

The chart below is a graphical representation of the impact of Machine safety on the element of risk over a particular process in comparison to a manufacturing set-up that does not have one.下圖直觀地說明了有無機器安全部門對於特定工藝之風險因素的影響對比。

ANZ’s Machine Safety Market - driven on a fast-track

Safety, in terms of human and machine “health” and environmental protection, has moved to the forefront of critical topics for manufacturers due to increased awareness of its strategic value.

Workplace issues such as human error, inadequate training, hazardous materials, and so on need to be addressed adequately as manufacturing environments are generally at great risk in terms of safety and compliance with safety regulations. Any of these issues that hinder the work flow pose a potential negative influence on the company’s prospective prosperity.

The machine safety market is one of the fastest growing segments in Australia and New Zealand owing to increasing awareness, and therefore pressure by the end users. In the face of this driver, there’s been growth opportunities that has seen a restructuring of the leadership positions in the market, but a high level of fragmentation still exists. The demands of globalized, highly competitive markets have resulted in immense pressure to reduce manufacturing and process production costs. Changing business imperatives have affected organization-wide spending. Currently, there is a shift from capital expenditures to operational expenditures, with the focus on achieving operational excellence. In order to help their cause, suppliers must increase their value proposition to users and machine builders.

The chart below is a graphical representation of the impact of Machine safety on the element of risk over a particular process in comparison to a manufacturing set-up that does not have one.

With Machine safety

Without Machine safety High

Tolerable

Low

Low High

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Australia and New Zealand attracts large-scale manufacturers in automotive, food and beverage, packaging and material handling industries. Owing to increased awareness coupled with the need to comply with standards such as IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, has made machine safety a compulsory body in any manufacturing unit. The pharmaceutical, electronics and semi conductors industries are gradually growing in ANZ in tandem with similar growth in the other Southeast Asian countries. Though the machine safety market in ANZ is considered a maturing market, there is still a wide opportunity gap that manufacturers can tap on for machine safety products such as light curtains, safety mats, scanners and safety interlock switches.

1

ANZ’s Machine Safety Market - driven on a fast-track

Safety, in terms of human and machine “health” and environmental protection, has moved to the forefront of critical topics for manufacturers due to increased awareness of its strategic value.

Workplace issues such as human error, inadequate training, hazardous materials, and so on need to be addressed adequately as manufacturing environments are generally at great risk in terms of safety and compliance with safety regulations. Any of these issues that hinder the work flow pose a potential negative influence on the company’s prospective prosperity.

The machine safety market is one of the fastest growing segments in Australia and New Zealand owing to increasing awareness, and therefore pressure by the end users. In the face of this driver, there’s been growth opportunities that has seen a restructuring of the leadership positions in the market, but a high level of fragmentation still exists. The demands of globalized, highly competitive markets have resulted in immense pressure to reduce manufacturing and process production costs. Changing business imperatives have affected organization-wide spending. Currently, there is a shift from capital expenditures to operational expenditures, with the focus on achieving operational excellence. In order to help their cause, suppliers must increase their value proposition to users and machine builders.

The chart below is a graphical representation of the impact of Machine safety on the element of risk over a particular process in comparison to a manufacturing set-up that does not have one.

With Machine safety

Without Machine safety High

Tolerable

Low

Low High

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Australia and New Zealand attracts large-scale manufacturers in automotive, food and beverage, packaging and material handling industries. Owing to increased awareness coupled with the need to comply with standards such as IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, has made machine safety a compulsory body in any manufacturing unit. The pharmaceutical, electronics and semi conductors industries are gradually growing in ANZ in tandem with similar growth in the other Southeast Asian countries. Though the machine safety market in ANZ is considered a maturing market, there is still a wide opportunity gap that manufacturers can tap on for machine safety products such as light curtains, safety mats, scanners and safety interlock switches.

1

高

中等

有機器安全部

無機器安全部

資料來源： Frost & Sullivan

低

低高

資料來源：Frost & Sullivan

2

The ANZ business sector has responded quickly to the disruptions to global growth and financial markets in the late 2008 and early 2009.

The total Southeast Asia and Australia and New Zealand machine safety market is expected to double the current revenue base during the forecast period, as the region is considered to present huge potential for the setting up of manufacturing units.

This market does face a few challenges like a lack of skilled manpower to operate modern machine safety products, lack of awareness of the latest technologies and of compliance levels to stringent safety standards. These factors call for a parallel consulting service that would turn these challenges into driving forces in the market. The importance of quality, price, and service is increasing as the market becomes more competitive. The major companies in this market are Omron, Rockwell Automation, SICK AG, Siemens, and PILZ. There is immense scope for up technological up grades, product development and innovation that will give the competitors an edge over other market participants.

This article was authored by Vandhana Venkatesan, Research Associate, Asia Pacific Industrial Automation & Process Control Practice, Frost & Sullivan.

機器安全市場：收入預測（澳洲和紐西蘭），2005-2015機器安全市場：不同產品類型之收入佔比（澳洲和紐西蘭），2008

電子安全傳感器

安全繼電器安全 PLC

其他

安全互鎖開關

收入（百萬美元）增長率（%）

年份註：所有數據均四捨五入為整數；以 2008 年為基準年。

註：所有數據均四捨五入為整數；以 2008 年為基準年。

資料來源：Frost & Sullivan 資料來源：Frost & Sullivan

風險水平

作者/by Ricardo G. Barcelona

32 Economy


橙衫軍掌權抑或黃衫軍掀起第二次革命？

菲律賓－

Orange empowerment or yellow revolution II ?

1 Cory was known to oppose her son´s entry into the 2010 presidential race prior to her death in August 2009.

1 柯莉2009年8月逝世之前，一直反對其子參與2010年總統競選。

achievements, his alleged integrity and a promise of honest governance defines his ideology and politics. In Aquino´s mind, he sees the contest as a fight between good and evil, and a struggle of integrity against corruption.阿基諾決心獲選總統後保護父母留下的

遺產，其父是已逝的參議員班尼格諾·阿

基諾（Benigno Aquino Jr）二世，其母是

前總統柯莉森·許寰哥·阿基諾。因此，

儘管缺乏建樹及政治成就，他宣稱堅守正

直，承諾透過誠實的方式管理國家，借此

表達自己的意識形態及政治立場。在阿基

諾看來，他認為這場競賽是善惡之爭，是

正直與腐敗之爭。

Villar on the other hand was born in the slums of Tondo, Manila. Through hard work, marriage into a landed middle class Aguilar family, and investments that paid off, he built a real estate busi-ness catering to middle and low income families. Over the past thirty years, on the back of a successful business with its difficult moments, Villar was named by Fortune magazine as the 9th richest man in the Philippines. Subsequent entry into politics saw him elected as Speaker of the House, and later as Senate President. As an outsider to traditional wealth, Villar is regarded with admiration, envy and am-bivalence by some among the upper class. In contrast, the poor sees Villar´s rise to wealth as an inspiring role model who identifies with their quest for a better life. 另一方面，維拉出生於馬尼拉 Tondo 的

貧民區。透過辛苦工作，他與擁有土地的

中產階級 Aguilar 一家聯姻，他的投資最

終得到回報，成功建立迎合中低收入家庭

需求的房地產業務。過去三十年內，維拉

的事業大獲成功，同時也曾經歷困難，他

在《財富》雜誌評選的菲律賓富豪榜上位

列第九。他隨後投身政治，被選為眾議院

發言人，後擔任參議院主席。由於缺乏顯

赫的身世，上層社會部分人對他看法不一，

在背景 ,意識形態 ,政治立場方面，兩

位候選人差異顯著：阿基諾擁有王子般的

家世，維拉則是貧民王子；阿基諾繼承英

雄傳統，維拉致力於讓窮人獲得權利；阿

基諾將總統職位視為命運的證明，維拉則

將其視為光環及榮耀。

Aquino comes with upper class pedi-gree as an accidental candidate. After his mother´s death, former president Corazon Cojuangco Aquino, or “Cory”, Aquino declared his candidacy amidst a groundswell of popular sympathy1. As a consequence, Senator Manuel Roxas III, another son of a former president, sacri-ficed his quest for the presidency to give way to Aquino. 阿基諾來自上流階層，成為總統候選人

充滿偶然。其母是菲律賓前總統柯莉森·

許寰哥·阿基諾，又被稱為「柯莉」，她辭

世後，阿基諾在公眾悲痛紀念的熱潮中宣

佈參選總統 1。為此，前總統柯莉的另一個

兒子 Manuel Roxas III 參議員放棄參選

總統，將機會讓給阿基諾。

Aquino´s claim to the presidency hinges on protecting the legacy of his iconic parents, martyred Senator Benigno Aquino Jr and late president Corazon Cojuangco Aquino. Hence, in absence of any significant executive or political

1 柯莉2009年8月逝世之前，一直反對其子參與2010年總統競選。

2 Refer to my article on Asian Private Capital that was published in Asian Tigers Investor Report, February 2010, which drew on the research of IESE Business School, Spain. http: \\vcpeindex.iese.us/

2 請參考我撰寫的有關亞洲私人資本的文章，發表在2010年2月的《亞洲虎投資者報告》上，其中引用西班牙 IESE 商學院的研究結論。 http: \\vcpeindex.iese.us/

With nine candidates contesting the Philippine presidency, voters for May 10, 2010 elections are spoilt for choice. If opinion polls prove accurate, the contest points to a very close two horse race – Senator Benigno Cojuangco Aquino III of the Liberal party (i.e. yellow army) and Senator Manuel B Villar Jr of Nacionalista party (i.e. orange legion). With Aquino and Villar accounting for 70% of voters´ preferences by March 2010, we see the chances of the remaining seven candidates looking increasingly remote. Hence, our focus on Aquino and Villar´s programs of government.

九位候選人角逐菲律賓總統大選，選民躍躍

欲試，等候 2010 年 5月 10日的到來。如果

民意調查結果準確，勝出者很可能在以下

兩人之間產生－自由党的參議員班尼格諾·

許寰哥·阿基諾三世（Benigno Cojuangco

Aquino III）（即黃衫軍）及國民黨參議員

曼紐爾·維拉二世（Manuel B Villar Jr）（即

橙衫軍）。在 2010 年 3月的民意調查中，阿

基諾及維拉共贏得 70％的選民，其餘七位

候選人獲勝的機會愈發渺茫。因此，我們重

點介紹阿基諾及維拉的施政計劃。

Both candidates´ backgrounds, ideolo-gies and politics stand in sharp contrast: Aquino as prince against Villar as pauper-prince; heir to a hero´s legacy versus an ambition to empower the poor as Villar´s lasting legacy; and opposing visions of the presidency as manifest destiny, and as a matter of merit and honor.


Economy 33

PhoTo © : www.FLICkR.Com uPLoAdEd By TAdzImA

既有欣賞及嫉妒，亦有矛盾心態。相反的

是，窮人將維拉積累財富的過程視為榜樣，

鼓舞他們追求更好的生活。

For investors looking into opportuni-ties, what can the next Philippine presi-dency offer?對於尋找機會的投資者而言，下一任菲

律賓總統能提供哪些良機？

What ails the Philippines?哪些問題在折磨菲律賓？

To understand what the Philippines can offer, it is important to see beyond what ails the country. In turn, what an Aquino or a Villar presidency means to investors require us to examine what ails the Phil-ippines that turn the country from Asia´s best during the 1960s into Asia´s laggard at the dawn of the twenty first century. 要想了解菲律賓的投資機會，深入分析

折磨菲律賓的問題十分重要。換言之，要

想了解阿基諾或維拉政府提供的投資機會，

我們必須了解，到底是哪些問題導致菲律

賓由 60 年代發展最好的國家變成 21 世紀

初亞洲的落後國家。

IESE Business School´s 2 ranking of private equity and venture capital markets provides guidance on what the next presi-dent faces. The research highlights the following Philippines´ weaknesses:IESE 商學院2 曾發佈私募股權及風險資本

市場排名，可幫助我們了解下任總統面對的

問題。該研究著重點明菲律賓的下列弱點：

1. Investor protection and corporate governance: Property rights, regula-tion, ease in seeking legal recourse, and disclosures keep the system honest and transparent.

1. 投資人保護及企業管治：財產權 ,法規 ,

尋求法律援助便利度以及保持體制公正

透明的披露措施。

2. Human and social environment: Literacy, labor market policies, crime, rigidity of labor market, degree of corruption and bribery influence the cost of doing business.

2. 人力及社會環境：文化素質 ,勞動力市

場政策 ,犯罪率 ,勞動力市場剛性 ,腐

敗程度以及賄賂對經營成本的影響。

3. Entrepreneurial culture and oppor-tunities: Ease of starting and doing business, innovation, bureaucracy and degree of administrative burdens influ-ence the rewards that entrepreneurs can reap from their honest labor.

3. 企業家文化及機遇：創立及經營的便利

度 ,創新 ,官僚體制及行政約束對企業

家獲取誠實勞動回報的影響。

Consistent with results of surveys on transparency, such as Transparency International and Heritage Foundation, the Philippines consistently ranked less favorably to its Asian neighbors. With its distinction as Asia´s fourth most corrupt country in 2010, does Philippine revival rely solely on honest leadership, with experience, competence and sound policies of secondary importance? 以上結論與一系列有關透明度的

調查結果一致，例如 Transparency

International 及 Heritage Foundation

的調查，菲律賓在亞洲鄰國中持續落後。

2010 年，菲律賓在亞洲最腐敗國家排行榜

中位列第四，菲律賓的復興是否只依賴誠

實領導呢？經驗 ,能力及良好的政策的重

要性是否屈居第二？

What remedies are offered?採取哪些補救措施？

Aquino believes that with honest leadership, the ills that beset the Philippines are resolved. His Social Contract with the Filipino People proposes to combat corruption by bringing back “integrity, trustworthiness and humility in public leadership”. This is anchored on his parents´ “legacy of change through the ways of democracy”, thereby achieving “rapid expansion of the economy through a government dedicated to honing and mobilizing people´s skills and energies as well as the responsible harnessing of natural resources”. Personal transformation and rebuilding public institutions based on the “strong solidarity of society and its communities” become the foundation of such transformational leadership. 阿基諾認為，只要實現誠實領導，菲律

賓的其他問題都能迎刃而解。他與菲律賓

人民簽下社會責任契約，承諾打擊腐敗，「讓

正直 ,值得信賴及人道重回公共領導」。他

的父母曾致力於「透過民主方式實現變革」，

「透過建立高效政府，挖掘並動員民眾力量，

以負責任的方式利用自然資源，從而實現

經濟快速發展」。在「社會及社區團結一致」

的基礎上，實現個人轉變並重建公共機構，

這已成為改革領導力的基礎。

From these lofty ideals, Aquino tried to provide some details to his program of government in his speech to Makati Business Club, a local business group in the Philippines. To the delight of business, he promised no tax increases and instead emphasizes improving tax collection efficiency. The latter is

achieved by plugging leakages from tax evasion and smuggling. To bring the tax effort from the present 13% to its high of 17%, Aquino pitched his integrity rather than his experience in achieving this objective. No sooner had the cheers of business subsided, Aquino reversed himself on his no tax pledge in his subsequent speech. Makati Business Club 是菲律賓的本地

企業組織，阿基諾在面對該組織發表演講

時，曾介紹施政計劃的部分細節內容。為

爭取企業界支援，他承諾不增加稅收，而

是注重提高徵稅效率。他計劃透過打擊逃

稅及走私實現提高徵稅效率的目標。為將

徵稅效率由目前的 13％提升至 17％，阿基

諾更強調正直，而非經驗。他的演講很快


Economy34

He sees infrastructure as a means to pump prime the economy and create employment

One of Metro Manila’s business and commercial districts at night

得到企業界的歡迎，阿基諾在後來的演講

中特別強調無稅保證。

He sees infrastructure as a means to pump prime the economy and create em-ployment. Advocating private sector in-volvement, “objective criteria for different types of projects will be set and develop a scorecard that will assess various projects against benchmarks transparent to the public”. He went on to summarize what a transformed Philippines would look like in six years: “One where traffic flows well, garbage is collected efficiently, crimes are solved, justice is served, and our kids are educated properly. It works in the sense that you do not have to flee the country to move up in the world, improve your lot in life, and rise to the highest level your personal merits can achieve”. 他認為，基礎設施建設是拉動經濟並創

造工作崗位的理想途徑。他鼓勵私營領域

參與基礎設施建設，「不同類型的項目應確

立不同的目標標準，應制定能評估各類項

目的記分卡，參照向公眾透明的標準予以

評估」。他總結菲律賓未來六年可能發生

的變化：「菲律賓將會交通順暢，整潔有序，

罪案及時偵破，司法公正，小童都能得到

理想的教育。民眾要想得到更好的生活，

不必離開祖國，這裏的生活水準將得到顯

著提升，個人價值能得到充分實現」。

While Aquino sees a country that is broken, requiring a transforming govern-ment to fix what he sees as the ills of the Philippines, Villar places his trust on the capabilities of his people. By espousing entrepreneurship and private initiative, he believes that being pro-poor is consistent with adopting busi-ness friendly policies. He sees business as a partner with government, because “business needs to grow for the economy to move forward and to provide employ-ment”. Philippines´ ninety four million people are seen as assets, rather than as a burden that an Aquino presidency wants to control if not reduce.阿基諾認為菲律賓分崩離析，需要強有

力的改革政府根治當前的頑疾，維拉則充

分信任民眾的力量。他認為，透過支援企

業及私人計劃，幫助民眾脫貧與執行對企

業友善的政策一致。他將企業視為政府的

合作夥伴，因為「要想推動經濟增長，提

供就業機會，企業必須發展壯大」。他將菲

律賓 9400 萬人口視為財富，而阿基諾則認

為，如果不加以控制，人口將成為經濟發

展的負擔。

Graft and corruption are recognized as serious ills. Unlike Aquino, Villar sees the need to combine public integrity with transparent practices and bureaucratic pro-cesses. Hence, during his first hundred days, Villar propose televised bidding for all large contracts. By allowing the public to validate accountability through transparent rules and judicious implementation, public integrity does not rely solely on the continuing hon-esty (or otherwise) of public officials in the face of great temptations for graft.維拉將瀆職及腐敗視為嚴重問題。與阿

基諾不同的是，維拉認為，應將公眾的正

直與透明實踐及行政流程充分結合。因此，

維拉計劃在上任的前一百天內電視直播所

有大型工程的競標過程。公眾可透過透明

的規則及司法制度核實競標過程，在面對

巨大誘惑時，公眾正直不能僅依賴官員的

誠實（或其他）。

So what does a Villar presidency sees as their focus that investors can partici-pate in? 那麼維拉政府認為投資人可參與哪些重

點領域呢？

Public – private partnership is deeply rooted in personal initiative, responsibil-ity and work. By providing the policy framework that makes doing business worthwhile endeavors, people including the poor must “strive and work towards” success. Specifically:


Economy 35

公司合作在個人計劃 ,責任及工作中根

深蒂固。透過提供讓企業值得努力的政策

框架，包括窮人在內的民眾必須努力奮鬥

贏得成功。具體言之：

1.Overseas workers acquire skills that can be redeployed for Philippine develop-ment. Through enhanced education, better deployment of remittances into savings and investments, and support for small and medium sized enterprises, new industries such as business process outsourcing, can create multiple motors for growth.

1. 海外工人具備可滿足菲律賓發展需要的

技能。透過加強教育，建立儲蓄及投資

方面更好的匯款渠道，支援中小企業以

及企業流程外包等新興行業，可創造多

個經濟增長點。

2.To accelerate the pace of infrastructure investments, private funding will be tapped using a variety of funding struc-tures such as the proven build-operate-transfer schemes (BOTs), to more novel public – private ventures that were tested successfully in other countries.

2. 加快基礎設施投資的步伐，使用多種籌

資結構吸引私人資金，例如建設－營運

－轉移計劃，採用在其他國家成功驗證

的全新公司合資方式。

3.Safety nets for the less fortunate such as more access to health care. This ex-

Overseas workers acquire skills that can be redeployed for Philippine development

tends to assisting OFWs by creating a system that is responsive to their needs when they encounter problems overseas. With OFWs remittances a major inflow, now close to $20 billion p.a., a means of channeling cash to investments form part of the entre-preneurship thrust through education and access to opportunities.

3. 為底層公民提供安全保障，例如獲得醫

療服務的渠道。當海外菲律賓工人在海

外遇到問題時，可形成響應其需求的制

度，為海外菲律賓工人提供更多協助。

海外菲律賓工人為菲律賓帶來大量資金

流入，每年接近 200 億美元，成為創辦

企業的資金來源之一，配合教育及商業

機會可創造巨大價值。

4. Education is the key to building interna-tionally competitive skills and capabilities. By re-instituting English as the medium of instruction, combined with greater em-phasis on use of technology and inclusion of entrepreneurship in the curriculum, education aims to create generations of Filipinos that are well equipped to com-pete with their global peers.

4. 教育是具備國際競爭力的關鍵。透過將

英語重新作為教學語言，加之更注重使

用科技，並在課程中納入培養企業家精

神的內容，教育旨在培養新一代菲律賓

人，使其具備良好的能力，參與全球競爭。

5. Market friendly policies seek to at-tract investments to ensure secure energy supply from conventional and renewable technologies; and ensure food self sufficiency through trade and agribusiness.


Economy36

5. 市場友好的政策旨在吸引投資，確保透

過傳統及可再生科技得到穩定的能源供

應；並透過貿易及農業商業確保食品自足。

In Villar´s vision, government sup-ports private sector initiatives with laws that are predictable and coherent. By encouraging private investments, growth is driven by sharp rise in capital inflows from 15% to 30% of GDP – level last seen during Fidel V Ramos´ presidency. This is where government actions are focused on by a) simplifying govern-ment bureaucratic processes to reduce opportunities for corruption; b) im-proving industrial relations to enhance productivity; c) streamlining regulatory and fiscal requirements by reducing the bureaucratic processes while strengthen-ing prudential oversight.維拉認為，政府制定可預計且一致的法

律可為私營企業發展提供支援。透過鼓勵

私人投資，資本流入推動經濟增長，資

本流入在 GDP 中所佔比重由 15％上升至

30％，這是 Fidel V Ramos 總統在任時的

水平。這正是新政府重點採取措施的領域，

政府將a) 簡化審批流程，減少腐敗機會；b)

改善行業關係，提高生產率；c) 簡化審批

流程，加強監督，從而優化監管及財政要求。

What does this mean to investors?這對投資者有何意義？

Protecting Cory´s legacy may yield some insights into what a yellow revolution II may mean to Philippine investments. As an icon of democracy, Cory´s legacy is secured as the visible symbol of a people´s struggle against the twenty years of Marcos dictatorship. Given Aquino´s mantra of continuing Cory´s unfinished business, what was her presidency´s legacy in the first place?保護柯莉的遺產有助我們了解第二次黃

衫軍革命，掌握其對菲律賓投資的意義。

柯莉已成為民主的象徵，是菲律賓民眾反

抗二十年馬科斯獨裁的象徵。阿基諾曾發

誓完成柯莉未盡的事業，柯莉最重要的政

治遺產有哪些呢？

As president, Cory´s record is at best mixed – better known for its political instability, power outages, and cor-ruption of Kamag-Anak Inc. (i.e. her relatives). She instituted her version of a comprehensive land reform that gen-erously gave away other people´s land, while retaining her family´s holdings in Hacienda Luisita.

最為總統，柯莉的履歷複雜，她的政治

不穩定性 ,電力短缺及 Kamag-Anak Inc.

腐敗案（即她的親屬）為很多人所知。她

制定全面的土地改革計劃，將其他人的

土地慷慨收走，自己家族在 Hacienda

Luisita 的土地則得以保留。

On balance, she did attract initial enthusiasm for investments that quickly fizzled with the onset of power outages and political instability. By the time Cory stepped down in 1992, incoming presi-dent Fidel V Ramos inherited a stagnant economy at the risk of collapse. 為保持平衡，她激發投資人最初的熱情，

但很快被斷電及政治不穩定性澆滅。柯莉

1992 年卸任時，下任 Fidel V Ramos 總

統手中的菲律賓經濟已處在崩潰邊緣。

Aquino´s lack of executive experience and lackluster political performance raise questions about his fitness for the presi-dency. Despite nine years in Congress and three years in the Senate, he has never passed a single bill into law. In response, Aquino´s supporters argue that his alleged integrity more than compensates for his lack of achievements. With the benefit of good advisers, Aquino hopes to learn the ropes of governance quickly enough to assert his leadership.鑒於阿基諾缺乏實踐經驗，鮮有政治建

樹，很多人對他能否勝任總統表示懷疑。

儘管他曾在國會工作九年，在參議院工作

三年，但他從未將任何提案轉變為法律。

阿基諾的支持者應對此類質疑時表示，阿

基諾的正直品格完全能彌補他在成就方面

的不足。在優秀顧問的幫助下，阿基諾希

望能掌握治國之道，展現自己的領導能力。

Unfortunately, this approach was tried by President Joseph Estrada in 1998. He lasted less than three years as president before he was impeached, thrown out by popular revolt, convicted and imprisoned, although subsequently pardoned by his successor President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. 遺憾的是，前總統 Joseph Estrada 曾

於 1998 年嘗試過該方法。他擔任總統不到

三年就被彈劾，群眾起義將他推翻，被判

入獄，但後來繼任總統 Gloria Macapagal

Arroyo 將其赦免。

Aquino´s alleged integrity comes under question by his critics. Aside from Cory´s effort to exempt Hacienda Luisita, the family´s sugar plantation, with her comprehensive land reform act, subse-quent massacres of farm workers during

Education is the key to building internationally competitive skills and capabilities

Aquino´s term as Congressman take away the luster on his claims. In addition, ques-tions on Aquino´s involvement in P32 billion road project – Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX) is the subject of an ongoing investigation by Congress. A Supreme Court ruling on Hacienda Luisita´s ownership remains pending after several years.亦有批評聲音質疑阿基諾的正直。除柯

莉積極豁免 Hacienda Luisita 外，家族

的糖作物種植，柯莉的全面土地改革法案，

以及隨後阿基諾國會議員任期內農場工人

遭到屠殺的慘案，都令阿基諾蒙羞。此外，

有關阿基諾參與造價 320 億比索的 Subic-

Clark-Tarlac 高速公路（SCTEX）項目的

質疑正接受國會調查。數年後，最高法院

遲遲未對 Hacienda Luisita 的所有權作

出裁決。

Dr Jose A Abueva, a member of the Constitutional Commission under Cory´s presidency and former president of University of the Philippines, argued in his March 2010 blog that: “no other presidential candidate can match Villar’s ability and credibility as a forceful na-tional leader. Among his rival candidates Villar is the only one who became the Speaker of the House, and then the Presi-dent of the Senate. As Speaker he led the House in the impeachment of a sitting President, the only one ever impeached. Because the Senate impeachment trial failed, Cabinet members dispersed, and people power and the with-drawal of support from the military and police forced the president’s resignation”.Jose A Abueva 博士曾是

柯莉政府憲法委員會成員，

還是菲律賓大學前校長，他

在 2010 年 3 月的網志中寫

道：「維拉作為強有力的國

家領導者，其能力及可信力

無人能及。在競爭對手中，

只有維拉曾擔任眾議院發言

人及參議員主席。作為發言人，他帶領眾

議院彈劾在任總統，歷史上絕無僅有。由

於參議院的彈劾議案未獲通過，總統解散

內閣成員，民眾的反對呼聲高漲，加之失

去軍隊及警察的支援，總統被迫此致」。

Abueva added that “Manny Villar’s lead-ing rival is banking mainly on the heroism of his parents and his potential for honest leadership. But given the state of the nation and the weaknesses of our democracy, we need much more than the assurance of hon-est leadership. Our revered President Cory was indubitably honest and religious”.Abueva 補充道：「維拉最主要的競爭對

手不斷宣揚父母的英雄主義以及自己誠實

領導的潛力。但鑒於國家的現狀及民主的

薄弱，我們需要的遠不止誠實領導。毫無

疑問，備受尊重的柯莉總統誠實且宗教信

仰堅定。」

Villar is not short of critics and detrac-tors. For a number of business persons, his rise from poverty to immense wealth is suspected as a result of abusing his political clout. This unease is similar to the reaction of similar groups to the rise of the Filipino Chinese Taipans in the 1970s – with similar suspicions of cor-ruption, smuggling and bribery leveled at them without proofs. After thirty years as a successful realtor, followed by periods in Congress and the Senate, Villar is yet to face a single serious lawsuit – in spite of numerous allegations that spiral in num-bers during an election year.維拉亦需要面對批評及誹謗。他曾幫助

一部分商人擺脫貧窮，獲得巨大財富，有

人懷疑他濫用政治影響力。這種局面與 70

年代華裔菲律賓人 Taipans 崛起時少數人

的反應十分相似，他們懷疑 Taipans 腐敗,

走私且受賄，但沒有任何證據。維拉擁有

三十年成功的房產經紀人生涯，後來又曾

在國會及參議院工作，目前仍然要面對一

樁性質嚴重的訴訟，一般在大選年，此類

訴訟會成倍增加。

In essence, the contrast between Aquino and Villar remains stark. While both espouse market oriented ap-proaches to economic man-agement, their capabilities differ in successfully steering the economy towards a safe harbor. Philippines is now suffering from increasing power outages, agricultural decline because of drought,

and overseas workers´ remittances af-fected by global recession. 就實質而言，阿基諾與維拉之間差異顯

著。儘管雙方在經濟管理方面均採用以市

場為導向的方法，但成功掌舵經濟確保安

全的能力差異顯著。菲律賓目前電力短缺

加劇，乾旱造成農業下滑，海外勞工收入

受全球衰退影響嚴重。

Aquino represents hope that his parents´ legacy will produce an honest president albeit untested. If Aquino is a stock, his valuation resembles that of the internet start-ups in 2000. High on promise, low on substance, will Aquino be another one of the thousands of forgot-ten dot.com companies that prove to be worthless to investors? 儘管未得到實踐檢驗，阿基諾代表其父

母的政治遺願，成為誠實正直的總統。如

果說阿基諾是一支股票，他的價值充分體

現 2000 年的互聯網熱潮。前景可觀，實際

回報有限，數千間互聯網公司最後被人遺

忘，對投資者而言毫無價值，阿基諾會是

其中之一嗎？

In contrast, Villar represents a real life Cinderella, only that reality is less roman-tic than the fairy tale. Through hard work, luck and ability to rebound from distress, Villar represents a poor boy that did well. Yet, success does not always make him popular with those that see themselves as the guardians of the established order. For this reason, Abueva considers Villar as possessing the capacity to “upset the status quo of mass poverty, injustice, pe-rennial conflict, including violent conflict, and high population growth. He has also the capacity to unite our fractious society and politics, and bring about effective and accountable leadership, governance, and the reform of our political institutions”. 與之相反，維拉是現實中灰姑娘的代表，


Economy 37

Dr Jose A. Abueva

PhoTo © : www.CEnTEnnIAL.uP.Edu.Ph

PhoTo © : www.FLICkR.Com uPLoAdEd By vICToRyFoRvILLAR


Economy38

只是現實情況不如童話故事那樣浪漫。維

拉憑藉艱苦工作 ,機遇及能力擺脫貧困，

是成功平民男孩的代表。有些人將自視為

既定秩序的守護者，他們不一定能接受維

拉的成功。鑒於此，Abueva 認為維拉具備

超凡能力，能顛覆普遍貧窮的現狀，改變

司法不公，化解長期衝突（包括暴力衝突），

並控制人口過快增長。他還能團結社會各

個階層及政黨，實現高效可信的領導，改

革政治制度」。

If the stars are to be relied upon, Chi-nese feng shui analysts have this to say:如果靠占星做出選擇，中國的風水大師

認為：

Benigno Cojuangco Aquino III - born February 8, 1960 (Year of the Metal Rat). For 2010 Metal Rat persons generally have very poor health and very poor success and luck. If ever he wins in 2010, the metal rat person faces a lot of conflict in 2011 and a threat to health in 2012. 班尼格諾·許寰哥·阿基諾三世（Benigno

Cojuangco Aquino III）－ 1960 年 2 月

8 日出生（金鼠年）。在 2010 年，金鼠屬

相的人一般身體欠佳，很難成功，運氣較

差。即使 2010 年能獲勝，金鼠屬相的人在

2011 年亦將面臨大量衝突，2012 年健康會

遇到威脅。

Manuel B Villar Jr - born December 13, 1949 (Year of the Earth Ox). For 2010 Earth Ox persons generally have excellent health and excellent success and luck. If ever he wins in 2010, the earth ox person faces very good prospects in the next three years as the following auspi-cious numbers visit his home direction of Northeast - Winner star number one in 2011, multiplying and expanding star number nine in2012, and the most auspi-cious number eight in 2013.曼紐爾·維拉二世（Manuel B Villar

Jr）－出生於 1949 年 12 月 13 日（土牛年）

在 2010 年，屬土牛的人士一般身體健康，

容易成功，運氣較好。如果在 2010 年獲勝，


屬土牛的人士如能按照幸運數字訪問東北

的家鄉方向，未來三年前景較好，幸運數

字分別為：2011 年勝利之星為 1，2012 年

幸運數字為 9，2013 年最幸運的數字 8。

Whether or not 2010 will turn out to be an orange empowerment … or a yel-low revolution, version II, Filipinos will not have a shortage of choices for their president. Given the choices between Aquino and Villar, alleged integrity alone is unlikely to raise the Philippines to the league of global leaders. Honest leaders need sound policies, transparent rules and competent bureaucracy to transform the Philippines from bust to boom. 無論 2010 年是橙衫軍掌權，還是第二次

黃衫軍革命，菲律賓都不會缺乏總統人選。

如在阿基諾及維拉之間做出選擇，僅憑宣

稱的正直似乎無法使菲律賓擺脫危局，重

新躋身領先國家。誠實的領導者需要合理

的政策 ,透明的規則及勝任的行政機構才

能讓菲律賓擺脫困境。

With dark horses lurking in the back-ground – Joseph Estrada, Gilbert Teodoro or Richard Gordon – a twist of fate may turn the election outcome into unchar-tered territories. After all, neither Aquino nor Villar has any monopoly on integrity, passion and hope. Joseph Estrada,Gilbert Teodoro 或

Richard Gordon 等黑馬正在躍躍欲試，或

許會使大選結果朝出人意料的方向發展。

畢竟，無論阿基諾還是維拉，都沒能集正直,

熱情及希望於一身。

When it comes to competence, em-powering the people and fitness for the presidency, the choices narrow signifi-cantly … who they choose is likely to determine the Philippines´ prospects and pace of joining the league of global leaders in Asia. 如考慮到能力 ,賦予民眾權利及能否勝

任總統，選擇空間其實十分有限……選民

的抉擇將決定菲律賓的前景以及重回亞洲

領先國家陣營的步伐。 |AT|


Economy38

只是現實情況不如童話故事那樣浪漫。維

拉憑藉艱苦工作 ,機遇及能力擺脫貧困，

是成功平民男孩的代表。有些人將自視為

既定秩序的守護者，他們不一定能接受維

拉的成功。鑒於此，Abueva 認為維拉具備

超凡能力，能顛覆普遍貧窮的現狀，改變

司法不公，化解長期衝突（包括暴力衝突），

並控制人口過快增長。他還能團結社會各

個階層及政黨，實現高效可信的領導，改

革政治制度」。

If the stars are to be relied upon, Chi-nese feng shui analysts have this to say:如果靠占星做出選擇，中國的風水大師

認為：

Benigno Cojuangco Aquino III - born February 8, 1960 (Year of the Metal Rat). For 2010 Metal Rat persons generally have very poor health and very poor success and luck. If ever he wins in 2010, the metal rat person faces a lot of conflict in 2011 and a threat to health in 2012. 班尼格諾·許寰哥·阿基諾三世（Benigno

Cojuangco Aquino III）－ 1960 年 2 月

8 日出生（金鼠年）。在 2010 年，金鼠屬

相的人一般身體欠佳，很難成功，運氣較

差。即使 2010 年能獲勝，金鼠屬相的人在

2011 年亦將面臨大量衝突，2012 年健康會

遇到威脅。

Manuel B Villar Jr - born December 13, 1949 (Year of the Earth Ox). For 2010 Earth Ox persons generally have excellent health and excellent success and luck. If ever he wins in 2010, the earth ox person faces very good prospects in the next three years as the following auspi-cious numbers visit his home direction of Northeast - Winner star number one in 2011, multiplying and expanding star number nine in2012, and the most auspi-cious number eight in 2013.曼紐爾·維拉二世（Manuel B Villar

Jr）－出生於 1949 年 12 月 13 日（土牛年）

在 2010 年，屬土牛的人士一般身體健康，

容易成功，運氣較好。如果在 2010 年獲勝，


屬土牛的人士如能按照幸運數字訪問東北

的家鄉方向，未來三年前景較好，幸運數

字分別為：2011 年勝利之星為 1，2012 年

幸運數字為 9，2013 年最幸運的數字 8。

Whether or not 2010 will turn out to be an orange empowerment … or a yel-low revolution, version II, Filipinos will not have a shortage of choices for their president. Given the choices between Aquino and Villar, alleged integrity alone is unlikely to raise the Philippines to the league of global leaders. Honest leaders need sound policies, transparent rules and competent bureaucracy to transform the Philippines from bust to boom. 無論 2010 年是橙衫軍掌權，還是第二次

黃衫軍革命，菲律賓都不會缺乏總統人選。

如在阿基諾及維拉之間做出選擇，僅憑宣

稱的正直似乎無法使菲律賓擺脫危局，重

新躋身領先國家。誠實的領導者需要合理

的政策 ,透明的規則及勝任的行政機構才

能讓菲律賓擺脫困境。

With dark horses lurking in the back-ground – Joseph Estrada, Gilbert Teodoro or Richard Gordon – a twist of fate may turn the election outcome into unchar-tered territories. After all, neither Aquino nor Villar has any monopoly on integrity, passion and hope. Joseph Estrada,Gilbert Teodoro 或

Richard Gordon 等黑馬正在躍躍欲試，或

許會使大選結果朝出人意料的方向發展。

畢竟，無論阿基諾還是維拉，都沒能集正直,

熱情及希望於一身。

When it comes to competence, em-powering the people and fitness for the presidency, the choices narrow signifi-cantly … who they choose is likely to determine the Philippines´ prospects and pace of joining the league of global leaders in Asia. 如考慮到能力 ,賦予民眾權利及能否勝

任總統，選擇空間其實十分有限……選民

的抉擇將決定菲律賓的前景以及重回亞洲

領先國家陣營的步伐。 |AT|


Energy 39

The word economics comes from the ancient Greek word oikonomia, which means “management and administration of a household”, and economics today is often defined as the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.

「economics」（經濟學）一詞源於古希臘語

「oikonomia」，意為「家務的操持和管理」。

今天，經濟學已演化為一門研究商品和服務

的生產、分配與消費的社會科學。

Sometimes, however, the best definition is demonstration, and one of the best demonstrations of the principles of economics can be found in the streets of Mumbai, India. Let us take you on a trip, a journey of economic discovery.有時候，最好的解釋是舉例說明。在印

度孟買的街頭就有一個絕佳例子，它蘊含

作者/by Chris Champion

經濟趣談Putting some spice into economics

著深奧的經濟學原理。接下來，我們就開

始一段經濟探索之旅。

In the crowded streets of Mumbai, India’s most densely populated city (with more than 19,000 people per square kilometre), can be found a complex, sophisticated and extraordinarily efficient delivery service. Let us enter the world of the dabbawala.孟買是印度人口最稠密的城市（每平方

公里逾 1.9 萬人），在熙熙攘攘的街頭，有

一種複雜、精密而又極其高效的遞送服務，

這就是「達巴瓦拉」。

A dabbawala is, literally, a person with a box. That person will by extension be in Mumbai, because the dabbawala service exists nowhere else. He is employed in a unique service industry whose primary business is spreading through the suburbs each morning to collect boxes containing freshly cooked lunches, delivering those

Energy40


人那裏收集飯盒，再把飯盒送到指定的分

揀地點，在那裏他與同伴把飯盒分揀打包

（有時是把飯盒捆綁在一起）。打包後，在

飯盒上做標記，標出目的地，然後裝上火

車運走（火車上一般會預留一節裝飯盒的

車廂）。這些標記顯示了飯盒將在哪個車站

下車，及其要送往的大廈地址。

At each station, boxes are handed over to a local dabbawala, who delivers them. The empty boxes, after lunch, are collected and sent home by reversing the process. 每個車站都有專門的「達巴瓦拉」接收

飯盒，並負責遞送。午飯過後，「達巴瓦拉」

回收空飯盒，再按原路送回家中。

This service started in 1880. The first collective was formed in 1890 with about 100 men. An attempt to unionise the dabbawalas was made in 1930, and in 1956 a charitable trust was registered under

運送午飯到工作地的服務。今天，印度的

上班族是「達巴瓦拉」的主要顧客群體，

與此同時，也有越來越多的富裕家庭僱用

「達巴瓦拉」給學校裏的子女送午餐。

A collecting dabbawala, usually on a bicycle, collects dabbas from homes, or sometimes from special dabba makers, then takes them to a designated sorting place, where he and other collecting dabbawalas sort (and sometimes bundle) the lunch boxes into groups. The grouped boxes are put in the coaches of trains, with markings to identify the destination of the box (usually there is a designated car for the boxes). The markings include the rail station to unload the boxes and the building address where the box has to be delivered.負責收集飯盒的「達巴瓦拉」騎著自行

車上門收集飯盒，或者是從專門做便當的

Expenditures on infrastructure, on the other hand, can be expected to improve the economy’s productivity.

It was the British who brought the word tiffin, and it was they who started the dabbawala concept. The Brits who came to the colony had trouble adjusting their palates from kippers and tea to dahl and lassi, and so established a service to bring lunch from their homes to their places of work

boxes to the respective desks of office workers, and then returning the empty boxes again to workers’ homes.「達巴瓦拉」的本意是手拿盒子的人，這

是孟買所特有的一個服務行業。每天清晨，

「達巴瓦拉」都到城郊挨家挨戶收集盛放著

烹飪好的新鮮食物的飯盒，再把它們送到

上班族各自的工作地，然後再回收空飯盒

送回上班族的家中。

The contents of the box are often referred to as “tiffin”, which is a light lunch or afternoon snack, and the word is sometimes also used for the box in which the food is carried. The dabbawalas are therefore also sometimes called tiffin wallahs.飯盒裏面的食物叫做「tiffin」，意思是

午飯或者下午茶，有時亦指盛著飯的飯盒。

「達巴瓦拉」有時亦稱「tiffinwallah」，

就是送午飯便當的工人。

It was the British who brought the word tiffin, and it was they who started the dabbawala concept. The Brits who came to the colony had trouble adjusting their palates from kippers and tea to dahl and lassi, and so established a service to bring lunch from their homes to their places of work. Today, Indian business people are the main customers for the dabbawalas but, increasingly, affluent families are employing them to deliver lunches to their children at school as well.當初是英國人把「tiffin」這個詞帶到

印度，也是他們創造了「達巴瓦拉」。因為

許多來到印度殖民地的英國人吃不慣當地

的食物，於是便有了為這些人直接從家中

A dabba, or Indian-style tiffin box


Energy 41

the name of Nutan Mumbai Tiffin Box Suppliers Trust. The commercial arm of this trust was registered in 1968 as the Mumbai Tiffin Box Supplier’s Association. Nowadays, the service often includes cooking of foods in addition to the delivery.這服務最早可追溯至 1880 年，到 1890

年初具規模，當時的送餐工隊伍有百餘

人。1930 年「達巴瓦拉」有了自己的工會，

1956 年成立一個慈善信託，名為「努坦孟

買送餐工人信託」。1968 年，該信託的商

業分支「孟買送餐工人聯合會」註冊成立。

今天，除了送便當之外，「達巴瓦拉」亦提

供烹製食物的服務。

An estimated 175,000 to 200,000 lunch boxes get moved every day by between 4,500 and 5,000 dabbawalas, all with an extremely small nominal fee and with amazing accuracy and punctuality. A recent survey found an average of one lost or misdirected tiffin box for every 6,000,000 deliveries.據估計每天有四千五百到五千個「達巴

瓦拉」穿梭於大街小巷，運送飯盒 17.5 萬

至 20 萬個，而且收費低廉，保證準時送到。

最近一份調查顯示，飯盒丟失或者送錯的

平均概率是六百萬分之一。

No wonder the dabbawala business is booming (The New York Times reported in 2007 that the industry continues to grow at between 5 and 10 per cent per year).難怪「達巴瓦拉」的生意做得風生水起

（2007 年《紐約時報》報道，該行業年均

增速可達 5% 至 10%）。

The British Broadcasting Corporation has produced a documentary on dabbawalas, and Prince Charles, during a visit to India, asked to meet some of them.

He did, although the heir to the British throne had to fit in with the schedule of the dabbawalas as their timing was too precise to permit any flexibility. 英國廣播公司曾為「達巴瓦拉」拍攝過

紀錄片。當年查爾斯王子訪問印度時想要

見一見「達巴瓦拉」，可是「達巴瓦拉」的

時間管理非常精確，沒有一點彈性。無可

奈何，王子殿下只好調整自己的行程，方

才一睹「達巴瓦拉」的真容。

As the dabbawala business has grown, and as its complexity and efficiency have become known, it has come under scrutiny from business analysts and teachers, and economists. Dabbawala organisers have been invited to give guest lectures at top business schools of India. 因為「達巴瓦拉」生意興隆，又以其複

雜而高效聲名鵲起，所以引起不少商業分

析師、教師乃至經濟學家的興趣。「達巴瓦

拉」的領導者經常被邀請到印度頂尖的商

學院去做講座。

As a recent feature in London’s Independent newspaper said, “Logistically, what the dabbawala army achieves each day is nigh on impossible. A team of Harvard statisticians has proved as much. Without computers, pretty well without mobile phones, relying on a relay system fraught with the potential for dabbawalas being late, ill or even dying en route (two did last year), they weave across the city on a spider’s web of routes.”最近倫敦《獨立報》撰文道：「按理說，『達

巴瓦拉』大軍每天所完成的工作近乎不可

能。」哈佛大學的一個統計小組對此作過深

入研究。「達巴瓦拉」沒有電腦，很少用手

機，只依靠人手相傳的接力模式，穿行於

城市中如蜘蛛網般密佈的大街小巷，他們

中隨時有人會遲到、生病甚至死在路上（去

年就有兩人死亡）。

The Harvard statisticians proved that Mumbai’s dabbawalas should not be able to do what they do. This is not, we suggest, one of the more radiant moments in the history of statistical endeavour. Which is why the economists are taking note and moving in to study the phenomenon.哈佛大學的統計專家論證說，孟買的「達

巴瓦拉」本來是不可能勝任這份工作的，

然而這結論肯定不值得大書特書。現在，

許多經濟學家都開始關注和研究這個現象。

Or perhaps they just want some tiffin, delivered reliably on time. 不知他們是否也想請「達巴瓦拉」為他

們準時送上熱騰騰的午餐？ |AT|

The Downwave Begins?Chinese Banking-作者/by Michael Wilson

中國銀行業面臨逆境？42 Finance



Finance 43

By popular consent, china’s economic stimulus package has been the most successful launched by any country in the last decade. 2009’s economic growth rate remained at a healthy 8.7% during a year when America had remained firmly stuck. Industrial production in January and February was nearly 21% up on year-earlier levels. And the Shanghai SSE composite index rose by 65% last year -- more than three times as fast as the s&p 500.

中國的經濟刺激計劃被普遍公認為是過去十年最成功的典範。2009年中國的經濟增長率保持於8.7%的健康水平，反觀美國卻在衰退中苦苦掙扎。今年1至2月，工業生產同比上升近21%。上海證券交易所綜合指數去年飆升六成五，漲幅是標準普爾500指數的三倍多。

Best of all, this has all been achieved without the state needing to spend money that it didn’t have. Rather than busting the government’s budget, Beijing simply instructed the banks to step up their lending so that they provided three quarters of the stimulus funding.

Accordingly, the banks have increased their lending by about 30% since the stimulus started in the autumn of 2008, paying out a record 9.6 trillion yuan in 2009. 最值得稱道的是，政府沒有造成太大虧

空就取得了這些成果。沒有不堪重負的財

政預算，北京只是授意銀行加大放貸力度，

就提供了四分之三的財政刺激資金來源。

從 2008 年秋季啟動經濟刺激以來，銀行的

放貸規模擴大三成，2009 年全年發放貸款

達到創紀錄的 9.6 萬億人民幣。

Predictably, much of this money has gone out in conventional consumer finance of one sort or another; but a more problematic sector has been the large slice that’s gone to local authority projects, not all of which have been well-chosen. Indeed, there have been recent worries that bad debts from local governments might seriously endanger the banks’ balance sheets in the future. 這些貸款有很大一部份變成各種各樣的

普通消費信貸，然而值得警惕的是，還有一大部份流向了地方政府的工程項目，而這些項目未必都經過嚴格把關，於是最近

有人擔心地方政府造成的壞賬日後可能嚴重損害銀行的資產負債表。

All of which would bring back eerie memories of the bad-debt mountains that crippled the banks in the 1990s before they were hived off into the government’s own ‘bad banks’ -- where they still remain, festering, to this day. All 1.4 trillion yuan of them…這讓人想起不堪回首的過去。上世紀九

十年代，銀行業深陷於巨額壞賬的深淵，後來多虧把包袱甩給政府的「壞賬銀行」，方才脫離苦海。當時剝離的壞賬至今仍未清理乾淨，總額高達1.4萬億人民幣。

The Tempo Changes 時移世易未雨綢繆

The worries about debt quality, then, are not to be taken lightly. But now it seems that the mood in Beijing is indeed turning. In February, the People’s Bank of China declared, in a typically oblique monetary policy report, that it was time to take account of “the need for economic growth, changes in inflation, and domestic and global liquidity”, and that it would begin “gradually guiding monetary

People's bank of China, Chinese central bank


Finance44

conditions back to normal levels from the counter-crisis mode”. In January, the China Banking Regulatory Commission set a reduced target of 7.5 trillion yuan (US $1.1 trillion) for lending in 2010 -- 22% less than the 2009 figure.

對於貸款質素的擔憂，一開始並未得到

重視，然而如今北京的想法正在轉變。2月，

中國人民銀行在一份態度曖昧的貨幣政策

報告中表示，現在是時候考慮「經濟增長

的需要、通脹形勢的變化，以及國內和全

球的流動性狀況」，稱央行將開始「逐步

引導貨幣環境從抵禦危機的狀態，恢復到

正常狀態」。1 月，中國銀行業監

督管理委員會把 2010 年的貸款目

標下調到 7.5 萬億人民幣（1.1 萬

億美元），比 2009 年低 22%。

Meanwhile the central bank has increased the banks’ reserve requirement ratios, most recently to a massive 16%, so as to slow the rate at which they can lend new money. Everyone is worried that more lending will create a consumer bubble and boost inflation. And nowhere more so than in the property sector. China’s property prices have grotesquely outstripped the official inflation rate of 2.7%. 不久前，央行還將銀行存款準備

金率上調到 16%，以期抑制銀行的

放貸速度。人們擔心過度放貸會催

生消費泡沫和助長通貨膨脹，尤以

樓市的風險最大。中國的房地產價

格猶如脫韁野馬般飛漲，漲幅已大

大超過官方公佈的通脹率（2.7%）。

Fortunately, the remedies here are straightforward. Hong

Kong has recently increased the stamp duty on some property purchases, while also vowing to step up its construction programme so as to ease the tight supply of housing. In many parts of China, buyers are now required to put up a 50% deposit when they purchase development land from local authorities. And in most places, it now takes a 40% deposit to own a second home.有道是亡羊補牢，猶未為晚。最近香港

上調了物業交易印花稅，並且宣佈加快實

施建屋計劃，旨在緩解住宅供應緊張的形

勢。目前在中國的許多地方，發展商從地

方政府拿地都要預付一半定金。在國內，

二次置業的首付比例普遍提高到四成。

Walking a Political Tightrope 政治鋼絲不容有失

Meanwhile the government is trying its best to look calm. In January, Finance Minister Xie Xuren restated the government’s intention to spend 992.7 billion yuan ($145 billion) on public investment in 2010 -- of which he said that 572.2 billion yuan would come from the ‘stimulus funds’. And the Politburo declared in February that it was determined “to maintain appropriate monetary policies this year to help its

enterprises and economy until their full recovery from the effects of the world financial crisis”. Whatever that means…此時此刻，政府要盡力穩定人心。1月份

財政部長謝旭人重申，2010 年中央將安排

公共投資 9,927 億元（1,450 億美元），他

說其中有 5,722 億元來自「經濟刺激資金」。

2月，中共中央政治局決定「今年保持適

度的貨幣政策，幫助企業和經濟渡過難關，

直到完全擺脫世界金融危機的影響」。個中

深意，不言而喻。

They are, of course, all being forced to walk a careful line between what they say and what they actually do. They know that the prospect of sharply slower growth could harm China’s ability to attract new foreign money, while also hurting the country’s stock markets. But they also know that China’s lending boom needs to slow.在言與行之間，領導層需要拿捏好分寸。

他們知道如果經濟蒙上增長放緩的陰影，

那將削弱中國對外資的吸引力，亦會殃及

國內股市。但他們也知道，熱火朝天的銀

行貸款應該降降溫了。

So far, the omens are good. The People’s Bank of China says that the banks extended only 700 billion yuan ($102 billion) in new local-currency loans during February -- around half the 1.4 trillion yuan that they distributed in January, and 35% less than in February 2009. We understand that cement and steel projects have been cut back to reduce overcapacity. That’s a healthy start.

Photo © : WWW.LAtRIbune.fR

Finance Minister Xie Xuren

Architecture Bank of China Tower

the central bank has increased the banks’ reserve requirement ratios, most recently to a massive 16%, so as to slow the rate at which they can lend new money


Finance 45

迄今為止，形勢還不算壞。人民銀行表示，

2月份國內銀行新發放人民幣貸款 7,000

億元（1,020 億美元），比 1月份的 1.4 萬

億元減少一半，也比 2009 年 2 月少 35%。

眾所周知，為防止產能過剩，不少水泥和

鋼鐵項目已被叫停。這是一個明智的開始。

The Problem With Local Authority Borrowing地方政府債務隱患

The latest worries concern the 8,000 ‘investment vehicles’ run by China’s local authorities, which are increasingly supplementing their official revenues with private bank borrowing. For technical reasons, this direct borrowing allows the authorities to circumvent some of the tighter financial restrictions on their activities. Which means, all too often, that the bank loans get channelled into those projects that are hardest to justify.目前中國的地方政府運作著八千多個投資

工具，地方政府越來越依靠商業銀行貸款來

彌補其財政收入的不足，這讓人十分擔心。

從技術上說，直接向銀行借錢讓地方政府在

財政上不那麼捉襟見肘，然而這也意味著銀

行貸款有可能流向那些問題項目。

There have been recent concerns in the banking sector that many local government vehicles have been irresponsibly getting into unsustainable levels of debt, and that eventually this might impact on the banks themselves. The vehicles already owe 11.4 trillion yuan to the banks, and their current commitments extend to a further 12.7 trillion -- a total of around US$3 trillion. In some exceptional locations, the accumulated debt is reckoned to be four times the annual income.最近銀行業有人擔心，許多地方政府的

投資工具罔顧責任過度舉債，有朝一日必

使銀行引火燒身。這些投資工具欠銀行貸

款已達 11.4 萬億元，還有 12.7 萬億元的

貸款已經敲定，加在一起高達 3萬億美元。

個別地方政府的欠債總額超過了全年財政

收入的四倍。

Clearly, this has to stop. In March, Citigroup in Hong Kong circulated a note suggesting that the non-performing loans of the local government investment vehicles might even reach 20% of their existing commitments within the coming year -- reaching 2.4 trillion yuan (US $350 billion) in a worst-case scenario. If that happened, it said, the government would have no option but to organise an official bailout of some sort.顯而易見，制止這個問題已是刻不容緩。

3月，花旗集團香港分部發表一份報告稱，

在最壞情況下，明年地方政府投資工具的

不良貸款可能達到當前貸款總額的 20%，即

2.4 萬億元（3,500 億美元）。報告說，倘

若這一幕發生，政府別無選擇，唯有出面

救助這一條路可走。

Tighter Capital Controls, More Pressure for the Banks資本收緊銀行受壓

The government will be hoping that this won’t be necessary, but it isn’t taking any chances. The raising of the capital adequacy ratio to 16% is obviously an important part of the solution here: Western analysts estimate that the latest capital ratio increase will tie up around 300 billion yuan, which will certainly help to cool things down. But it would bring

the overall hike in the capital requirement since last autumn to almost a trillion yuan. Accordingly, the banks are being forced into a round of capital raising in order to bolster their ratios. 政府不希望走到這步田地，但也不想心

存僥倖。提高資本充足率至16%，無疑是出手解決問題的重要舉措：西方分析家估計，最近調高資本比率之舉，可以凍結約3,000億元，能夠起到降溫效果。但是假如從去年秋季算起，則累計提高資本金要求的規模將達到近一萬億元。這樣的話，銀行就得重啟融資，以充實資本。

China Minsheng Banking Corp and China Merchants Bank have already raised around HK$50 billion to stabilise their balance sheets, and China Construction Bank and the Bank of Communications are both understood to be considering their options. But the one to watch will be the Bank of China, which is estimated to need at least 100 billion yuan of extra reserves, all on its own. 民生銀行和招商銀行已籌資約500億港元

充實其資產負債表，據說建設銀行和交通銀行也在研究融資方案。中國銀行的動向最值得關注，據估計該行需要自籌資金至少1,000億元才能滿足資本金需要。

Is the investment world ready for that kind of a hike? That will probably depend on the state of the stock market. And the stock market, so far this year, has been going nowhere. Anxious times indeed.面對融資熱潮，投資界是否做好準備？

一切都取決於股票市場的狀況。然而今年

以來，股市走向一直不甚明朗。眼下正是

考驗各方智慧的時刻。|AT|

China Government Office Building

Hong Kong and Shanghai are increasingly becoming attractive locations for foreign companies looking to raise capital by going public

香港和上海正吸引越來越多外國公司前來上市

46 Economy


THe

World’S NeW IPo新資本之都

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

CaPITal?

for connecting international investors with the booming Chinese market in the midst of a still-recovering global economy.香港交易及結算所有限公司（下稱「香

港交易所」）主席夏佳理將此歸功於「合適

的地點 ,合適的時間 ,合適的市場」。作為

以嚴格監管與法治聞名的前英殖民地，以

及大中華地區最老牌的金融中心，香港無

疑是國際投資者於環球經濟掙扎復甦之際，

進入欣欣向榮的中國市場的理想跳板。

But the attractiveness of Hong Kong as an IPO destination is not just limited to Hong Kong and mainland Chinese companies. Increasingly, Hong Kong has begun to compete against New York and London as a favoured destination for IPOs by companies outside of Greater China.香港 IPO 市場不僅吸引本港和中國內地

的企業，而且正躍躍欲試挑戰紐約和倫敦，

日益成為大中華以外公司所心儀的 IPO 目

的地。

Last year it was the Asian subsidiaries of two US casino and resort operators, Wynn Macau Ltd. and Sands China

to list in Asia’s financial centers instead -- and none have proven more popular than Hong Kong.然而去年形勢起了變化。許多發達市場

和新興市場的企業紛紛前來亞洲的金融中

心上市，或者宣佈這方面的計劃。而亞洲

最炙手可熱的金融中心，非香港莫屬。

Hong Kong raised nearly US$27 bil-lion in 2009 from initial public offer-ings compared to the New York Stock Exchange’s US$17 billion, helping it rank number one in IPOs last year for the first time since 2006.2009 年，香港首次公開招股集資總額近

270 億美元，超過紐約證券交易所的 170

億美元，自 2006 年以來再度摘得 IPO 融資

全球第一的桂冠。

According to Ronald Arculli, Chair-man of the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd (HKEx), this was achieved by being “in the right place, at the right time, in the right markets.” As a former British colony with a rule of law and tight regulations, coupled with its posi-tion as Greater China’s most established financial center, Hong Kong is ideal

Listing on the stock exchanges of the United States and Europe used to be the Holy Grail for many of the largest Asian companies.

到美國和歐洲的證券交易所上市曾經是許多亞洲大公司的夢想。

Over the past five years for example, 67 initial public offerings by Chinese companies on US exchanges gained an average of 22% in their first four weeks of trading. American-listed shares of Baidu Inc., the most popular online search engine in China, almost tripled after its $122 million IPO in 2005. Suntech Power, the world’s largest maker of silicon solar power modules, advanced 95% in its first month after listing in the US in 2005.過往五年，有 67 家中資企業在美國首

發上市，而上市後四週內股價平均漲幅達

22%。2005 年，中國頭號在線搜索引擎百

度到美國首次公開招股（IPO），集資 1.22

億美元，如今股價已上漲近三倍。同年，

世界最大的矽質太陽能組件製造商尚德電

力亦登陸美國股市，首月飆升 95%。

Not only did listing on the NYSE or NASDAQ allow these companies to tap the deepest and most liquid capital markets in the world; being listed abroad also established their reputation as at-tractive investment options by virtue of being governed by First World rules on transparency and governance.在紐約證券交易所或納斯達克上市，讓

這些公司有機會徜徉於世界上最大最深奧

的資本市場，而且因為接受先進的透明度

和企業治理的監管，無形中也增強了這些

公司的美譽度及投資吸引力。

The past year however has seen a reversal of this logic. Increasingly, both developed and emerging market compa-nies have listed or have announced plans


Economy 47

this was achieved by being “in the right place, at the right time, in the right markets.”Ronald Arculli, Chairman of the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd (HKEx)

THe

World’S NeW IPo

Photo © : www.tReNduPdAtes.Com

Photo © : AsIANfINANCIALfoRum.Com

Wynn Macau

Ltd., which led the foreign listings in Hong Kong. Wynn’s IPO raised US$1.87 billion for its casino develop-ment in neighbouring Macau, while Sands raised US$2.51 billion for its own casino development.去年，兩家美國賭場和度假村運營商的

亞洲分部—永利澳門有限公司和金沙中國

有限公司，成為外國公司來港上市的大贏

家。永利通過 IPO 集資 18.7 億美元，計劃

在澳門開發賭場，而金沙集資 25.1 億美元，

用於發展自身的賭場業務。

This year, Hong Kong has already seen two initial public offerings by foreign companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, both of them natural resource firms strategically oriented towards serving the Chinese market. South Gobi Energy Resources Ltd.’s Hong Kong share sale in January 2010 raised almost US$450 million for the firm to continue developing its Ovoot Tulgoi coal mine in southern Mongolia. A direct benefi-ciary of the growth in Chinese energy demand, South Gobi sells coal over the border to Chinese power plants.今年已有兩家外國公司來香港聯合交易

所首次公開招股，均是以中國市場為戰略

目標的自然資源公司。 2010 年 1 月，南

戈壁能源有限公司在港上市，集資近 4.5

億美元，用於繼續開發蒙古國南部的 Ovoot

Tulgoi 煤礦。公司把煤炭賣給中國發電廠，

可謂是中國能源需求增長的直接受益者。

South Gobi was followed by Moscow-based United Co. Rusal Ltd., the world’s largest aluminium producer, with an IPO worth US$2.1 billion as the firm sought to pay down US$14.9 billion in debt. Rusal was the first-ever Russian

company to list in Hong Kong; its suc-cess has now attracted other compatriots. OAO Russian Railways, operator of the world’s largest rail network, said it was considering the city for a dual listing of two units.步南戈壁後塵，總部設在莫斯科的全球

最大鋁生產商 United Co. Rusal Ltd. 亦

在香港首發上市，集資 21 億美元，以助

公司償還其 149 億美元的債務。Rusal 是

有史以來第一家登陸香港股市的俄羅斯企

業，它為國內其他企業樹立了成功典範。

世界最大的鐵路網絡運營商 OAO Russian

Railways 就表示，正考慮把香港作為兩家

子公司的第二上市地。

These major transactions come after the HKEx’s efforts during the last four years to pursue diversification, talk-ing to companies in Australia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Mongolia, Russia, the United Kingdom and the Middle East about listings in Hong Kong. The HKEx’s Chief Executive Officer Charles Li said in a press conference last March that the Exchange is currently processing over forty applications for IPOs.過去四年香港交易所不懈努力走多元化

發展之路，遠赴澳洲 ,日本 ,哈薩克斯坦 ,

韓國 ,蒙古 ,俄羅斯 ,英國和中東招攬外

國公司來港上市，如今終於結出累累碩果。

香港交易所行政總裁李小加在 3月份一場

新聞會上說，港交所現正處理逾四十份 IPO

申請。

The continuing string of large foreign IPOs in Hong Kong (and some being contemplated for Shanghai) can be traced to two reasons as the world emerges from the last great financial crisis.當世界逐漸走出金融危機之際，外國公

司接連到香港（有的則考慮到上海）上市，

一時間 IPO 市場風生水起。究其原因，主

要有兩點。

The first is how strongly Asian markets have weathered the crisis. With China posting an 8.7% growth rate last year and on track to surpass Japan as the world’s second largest economy, Asia’s place in the global economy continues to rise. In contrast, the United States and European Union continue to struggle with the aftermath of the crisis, includ-ing massive government deficits and anaemic economic growth.一是亞洲市場頑強抵禦住危機。去年中

國經濟增長 8.7%，其超越日本晉身世界第

二大經濟體指日可待，所以亞洲在世界經

濟中的份量將會繼續上升。相反，美國和

歐洲仍在危機的深淵中苦苦掙扎，政府赤

字高企，經濟增長緩慢。

The macroeconomic health of Asia means that Asian capital markets, es-pecially established ones such as Hong Kong, continue to have the liquidity and risk appetite for initial public offerings. Rusal reserved 39.4% of its IPO shares for major investors such as Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing and Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok. South Gobi at-tracted $50 million each during its Hong Kong listing from the sovereign wealth funds of China and Singapore.因為亞洲的宏觀經濟健康，所以亞洲的

資本市場，尤其是香港這樣的成熟市場擁

有充足的流動性和風險偏好，以滿足首次

公開招股之需。Rusal 把 39.4% 的 IPO 股

份留給了大戶投資者，如香港富豪李嘉誠 ,

馬來西亞富豪郭鶴年。南戈壁在港招股，

吸引了中國和新加坡的主權財富基金前來

認購，金額達五千萬美元。

Other Asian bourses also ranked high in money raised from new listings last year, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Kuala Lumpur, Bombay and the India National Stock Exchange all in the top ten.去年亞洲其他交易所的上市集資規模同

樣可觀，譬如上海 ,深圳 ,吉隆坡 ,孟買

和印度國家證券交易所，均躋身前十。

Second, the economic vitality of Asia has driven more companies from outside the region to rely on the continent as the source of future growth and profits, with Western economies remaining stagnant after the crisis. To lift their profile in markets increasingly vital to their bot-tom line, these companies have pursued


Economy48

Photo © : www.southgobI.Com

listings on Asian stock exchanges. 二是亞洲的經濟活力。由於西方經濟在

危機過後不見起色，許多外企都把亞洲當

作未來的增長點和利潤來源。為了在那些

至關重要的市場打響知名度，這些公司選

擇在亞洲的證券交易所上市。

British banking giants HSBC and Standard Chartered announced last year plans to list in Shanghai, perhaps as early as this year. Both banks were founded during the colonial era, HSBC and Standard Chartered helping finance trade between the United Kingdom and China and India, respectively. As their home Western markets convulsed during the financial crisis, both banks returned to their roots by focusing on Asia as the lynchpin for their future growth -- HSBC even going so far as to move its Chief Executive Officer to Hong Kong in a hugely symbolic move. Listing in Shanghai (both banks are already dual

listed in Hong Kong and Lon-don) reinforces how strategi-cally important Asia is for both banking behemoths.英國銀行雙雄滙豐銀行和渣打

銀行，去年宣佈在上海上市的計

劃，也許今年上半年就能見分曉。

滙豐銀行和渣打銀行均誕生於殖

民地時代，目的是促進英國同中

國和印度之間的金融貿易。金融

危機使西方市場陷入風雨飄搖，

於是兩家銀行把目光轉向亞洲，

也把希望寄託在亞洲身上。具有

象徵意義的是，滙豐銀行甚至要把行政總

裁移至香港。登陸上海股市（兩銀行均已

在香港和倫敦兩地上市）突顯出亞洲對這

兩家銀行巨頭的重要戰略意義。

Another Asian listing is being pur-sued by British insurer Prudential, which is acquiring American International Group’s Asian life insurance subsidiary for US$35.5 billion. AIG’s subsidiary,


Economy 49

American International Assurance (AIA), was to have been Hong Kong’s largest IPO this year with a value of US$10-$20 billion, before AIG decided to sell to Prudential instead. With its takeover of AIA set to turn the 162-year old Brit-ish insurer into a largely Asia-focused company, Prudential now plans to list its shares in Hong Kong, aiming to broaden its shareholder base in Asia prior to a rights offering to fund the acquisition.英國保險商保誠集團也準備在亞洲上市，

保誠擬出資 355 億美元收購美國國際集團

的亞洲人壽保險子公司。AIG 旗下的美國

友邦保險（AIA）原本打算今年在香港首次

公開招股，集資 100 億至 200 億美元，是

今年規模最大的 IPO，但是後來 AIG 決定

把友邦賣給保誠，IPO 就此擱淺。收購友

邦之後，這家有 162 年歷史的英國保險商，

將變成一家以亞洲業務為主的公司。為此，

保誠計劃在香港掛牌上市，先擴闊股東基

礎，再透過供股募集收購資金。

As these venerable British banking and insurance institutions transform themselves into Asian-centric financial firms, their listing on the major stock exchanges of Greater China confirms a profound shift in economic gravity. Asia’s rapid growth continues to gener-ate more wealth, making the region’s ever-deepening and increasingly liquid capital markets too attractive to resist for many companies around the world -- es-pecially those whose businesses become intertwined with Asia’s rising economies.這些老字號的英國銀行和保險機構紛紛

圍繞亞洲進行業務佈局，他們在大中華地

區的主要交易所上市，足見世界經濟重心

已經轉移。亞洲的迅速成長不斷地創造財

富，區內的資本市場無論是深度抑或流動

性，均達到前所未有之程度，對全世界的

許多公司，尤其是想從亞洲經濟崛起中分

一杯羹的公司來說，亞洲資本市場無疑是

難於抗拒的誘人寶地。|AT|

Photo © : www.thestAR.Com

HSBC Building

APRIL 2010

50 Economy


The China ‘bubble’ won’T bursT for quite some time, probably not for years into the misty future, according to one man who knows the investment score. Anthony Bolton, the Guru of special situations investment manage-ment based in the UK has decided to grab the bull by the horns and hang onto the Dragon’s tail. China is to be his new baby, and he sees the more ‘domestic’ orientated companies, as opposed to the exporters, as the new twist in the inves-tor’s tale. China is beefing up in every way and the Fidelity investment group hope to cash in on a host of shining fac-tors. They are taking their old leopard from a familiar lair, placing him in a new continent, choosing a westernised city as his base, dragging him out of retirement, and brewing a spicy stew indeed, in the fickle pickled world of investment management. 150 years of British guidance in Hong Kong has left a capitalist system with strong foundations and fundamental advan-tages for a guru determined to cash in on Asia’s China, as he sees the USA and Europe somewhat fading away on the horizon, particularly with the levels of growth rates expected.

一位投資大師說，中國的「泡沫」短期之內

不會破滅，在朦朧的未來也許還會持續多

年。身為英國一家特殊情況投資管理公司的

資深經理人，安東尼·博爾頓決心抓住「牛

角」，與龍共舞。中國是他的新目標，在他

心目中，中國的內向型企業比外向型企業更

有機遇。現在中國的方方面面都有長足進步，

富達投資集團希望從中國的蓬勃發展中分一

Changing the Leopard SpotS – the China eConomy

作者/by Bruce Curran

Anthony Bolton, the Guru of special situations investment management based in the UK

本性「可」移—中國經濟


Economy 51

杯羹。於是這位歸隱山林的大師重新出山，

他把目光鎖定一塊新大陸，以一座充滿西方

色彩的城市為據點，秣馬厲兵，摩拳擦掌，

要在風雲變幻的投資管理界再寫新篇。經過

一百五十年的歲月洗禮，香港在英國治下形

成完善的資本主義制度，其雄厚的基礎和骨

子裏的優勢，對這位立志紮根亞洲的大師級

人物來說再合適不過。在他眼中，中國正冉

冉升起，而歐洲和美國卻是日薄西山，從二

者的增長速度可見一斑。

Fidelity already has a menu of healthy China Funds operating, but they see an opportunity to cash in on a fresh mix of a booming economy driven by an old mas-ter. Back in 1979 Bolton took the reins with the Fidelity Special Situations Fund in the UK, and over his 28 years the fund averaged out an annual return of over 19%, turning an investment of St10,000 into St1,482,000… according to Fidelity.富達旗下已有多支中國投資基金，這次

老掌門重出江湖，正逢中國經濟如日中天，

個中機遇值得期待。時光退回 1979 年，博

爾頓執掌英國富達特殊情況基金的帥印。

根據富達的資料，隨後二十八年中，該基

金年均回報逾 19%，相當於把 1萬英鎊的

原始投資，變成 148.2 萬英鎊。

The new formula all seems very fancy, but Europe in the 80s is a very far cry from the weft and weave of China in the 21st century. The mindset, economic ground rules, communist directorship and a hungry 1.3 billion people are a different universe from Bolton’s old stage, before the western world meltdown of 2008. 新的計劃雄心萬盞，然而二十一世紀的

中國卻與八十年代的歐洲有著天壤之別。

中國的思維模式 ,經濟規則 ,共產政權，

以及尚未完全達到溫飽的 13 億人口，這一

切都與博爾頓以往的經歷迥然不同，至少

在 2008 年西方世界陷入危機之前如此。

The master who slipped off into retire-ment has found a new noose. But can a leopard change its spots and switch into the new universe of the tiger. China might not be so pleased to see a western wizard dabbling in their eastern ways. It is all very well investing in Chinese com-panies registered on overseas exchanges, including Hong Kong, but it’s a different ball game when it comes to the internal, communist manipulated stock markets like Shenzhen and Shanghai, where socio-capitalism cuffed by governmental control is hovering menacingly just a short stone’s throw away.

這位已經退隱江湖的投資泰斗發現了新

的機遇，但是江山易改，本性難移，他能

與時俱進去順應新的形勢嗎？一個西方高

手來東方闖蕩江湖，若不入鄉隨俗，則必

然碰壁。也許投資於在海外（包括香港）

上市的中國公司可以不在話下，但是到了

中國本土，就得遵守另一套遊戲規則。中

國的股票市場，無論深圳還是上海，都要

服從於黨，這是在政府管治之下的社會資

本主義。

Imagine an alien group dropping US$1 billion in the China markets, so soon after the spectacular profits made in 2009, with some China funds gaining over 100%. This is Fidelity’s intention for the size of the fund, and being the biggest fund group in the world, they know their way around.2009 年市場行情火爆，個別中國投資基

金的回報率超逾 100%。如此背景之下，一

家外國機構打算把 10 億美元投向中國市

場，這便是富達設想中的基金規模，作為

世界最大的基金管理集團，它知道應該怎

麼做。

But have they bitten off more than they can chew, and will the China governing machine even let them chew as much as they like, or will they manipulate the state of affairs to keep them simply chewing on their cud?然而這次富達的胃口是不是太大？中國

的管治機器能容它予取予求？它能否把一

切掌控自如，達成所願？

Fidelity a la Bolton is very ‘gung ho’ and plotting to set up their new China

Special Situations shop by April 2010. Bolton has already done his due dili-gence with 40 odd China based com-panies, and is keen to scoop up new opportunities.現在富達集團和博爾頓正埋頭苦幹，因

為新的中國特殊情況基金即將於 2010 年 4

月面市。博爾頓已對四十餘家中國公司作

過盡職審查，以期從中發掘新的機遇。

The old adage, “Better the devil you know than the one you don’t know”, does make some sense in this case, but there are a lot of unknowns, and the changing spots can only be clearly focused through rose tinted magnifying glasses… made in China. 俗話說「做熟不做生」，這句話很有道理，

然而未來總是充滿未知，形勢千變萬化，

你須得加倍仔細，方能趨利避害，逢凶化吉。

Perhaps it is more a case of the old Chinese saying where “One rat drop-ping spoils a whole bowl of rice”. This can work both ways, when one bad choice, in a country which has had more than its fair share of private com-pany scandals would upset an invest-ment cart, or where the old master has already shot his bolt, and like Michael Schumacher, will never ever be quite so sprightly again as he was, and unable to match all the old records. Come what may, Anthony Bolton and Fidel-ity have made the leap of faith and are now careering at full speed to milk the China cow.

中國經濟

Economy52


中國有句古諺叫做「一粒老鼠屎壞了一

鍋湯」，這句話可從兩方面理解：一是在一

個民營公司醜聞不斷的國家，哪怕只有一

次選擇失誤，整個投資就可能滿盤皆輸；

二是對一位功成名就的大師來說，就像車

王舒馬赫那樣，他不可能永遠如過去般激

情萬丈，故而難以逾越從前的紀錄。不管

怎樣，這次博爾頓和富達已橫下一條心，

要把中國淘金之旅走到底。

In the meantime a number of other Specialist Fund Managers have already been brilliant in gathering profits out of China for quite some time, and having gone through the collapses of 2008, have come out fit and fighting in 2009. 很久以來，許多專業基金經理人都在中

國取得了不俗戰績，他們頂住了 2008 年的

驚濤駭浪，也收穫了 2009 年的累累碩果。

A large group, Barings, that well known investment house, returned over 70% in their China Fund for 2009.2009 年，著名投資機構霸菱旗下的中國

基金實現 70% 以上的回報率。

A small bespoke Fund Management Company, FMG, based in New York, turned in a handsome profit of 83.7% for

2009. There again they gathered a profit of 61.1% in 2006, and 41% in 2007 in their China Fund. 來自紐約的 FMG 基金管理公司，這一年

更取得 83.7% 的驕人戰績。而 2006 年和

2007 年，該公司的中國基金的回報率分別

為 61.1% 和 41%。

The 2008 equity collapses worldwide was a steep learning curve for these spe-cialists, and FMG dropped 64.2%. But over these 4 years their overall return was + 121%… not too shabby in the rise and fall of the catastrophic economic tsunami of the most recent past.2008 年全球股市轟然倒塌，成為這些

專業投資機構的滑鐵盧，FMG 的跌幅高達

64.2%。然而最近四年，該機構的整體回報

率仍達 121%，在近些年經濟大起大落的背

景下，如此成績已屬難得。

Herein lies the truth implied in that phrase ‘better the devil you know”, where these other fund managers should always be part and parcel of a serious China Portfolio. 「做熟不做生」絕非虛言，要想做好中國

投資組合，這樣的基金經理不可或缺。

New opportunities and a clean slate is always a good starting point in the new world order, and Fidelity with their upcoming China Special Situations Fund will be one to watch and definitively one to invest in. 新機遇，新天地，新的世界秩序，站在

這個絕佳起點，富達及其即將亮相的「中

國特殊情況基金」值得期待，更值得投資。

Despite the need to change the leopard spots, avoid a rat dropping or two, stay with the devil you know, and hang tight onto the Dragon’s tail, there is magic in the air, and like it or not the China Dragon is the Real Master. 其實不論是改變本性 ,防備老鼠屎 ,做

熟不做生，還是與巨龍共舞，道理無非一個，

那就是中國才是世界真正的主宰。

The thrust for overall fund investment is clearly with the Emerging Markets. Cash in the bank is earning less than inflation, and the spotlights are focused on parts of South America but predomi-nantly shining bright on Asia, with Rus-sia, India, and China at the heartland of economic growth.毋庸置疑，新興市場才是基金投資的希

望。與其把錢存在銀行坐等通脹侵蝕，不

如趁早拿來投資。雖然南美洲有其魅力所

在，但亞洲才是萬眾矚目的焦點，而俄羅斯,

印度和中國是經濟增長的核心動力。

In the final analysis there is a strong case to say that it is too late to invest, because the Emerging Market horses have already bolted, putting in mammoth profits in 2009.有一種論調說，現在投資於新興市場為

時已晚，因為其漲幅已高，尤其是 2009 年

獲利豐厚。

But if the likes of Anthony Bolton are prepared to eat their hats if it doesn’t con-tinue to happen, and stake his reputation on China in Wonderland, then it is time to throw money inside the China ‘bubble’ and chew on his humble pie. If this old leopard thinks positive, then there is defi-nitely profit to be made before the South China Sea ‘bubble’ finally bursts, and the tiger changes its stripes.但是，假如博爾頓已經打定主意，情願

把一世威名都押在中國身上，那現在就是

投資於「中國泡沫」的時機，相信博爾頓

不會食言。

如果這位大師篤信不疑，那麼在中國泡

沫破滅之前就一定有賺錢的機會。誰說江

山易改本性難移？ AT

In the meantime a number of other Specialist Fund Managers have already been brilliant in gathering profits out of China for quite some time, and having gone through the collapses of 2008, have come out fit and fighting in 2009.

At the turn of the century, world leaders collectively agreed to “accelerate democratisation and secure peace, scale up development and poverty reduction, ensure environmental sustainability, and promote global partnerships.” This so-called Millennium Declaration made in September of 2000 during a United Nations summit meeting was made more concrete in the following year via a development agenda dubbed the “Millennium Development Goals” or MDGs, a set of quantifiable objectives for combating problems in poverty, hunger, disease, environmental degradation and discrimination against women, among others, and with 2015 set as target D-day for most goals.

世紀之交，全世界領導人一致同意「加快

民主進步，維護世界和平，發展經濟消滅

貧窮，確保環境可持續力，以及促進全球

夥伴關係」，這便是2000年9月聯合國首腦

會議發出的《千年宣言》。翌年，聯合國

通過了「千年發展目標」，作為實施《千

年宣言》的具體行動計劃。千年發展目標

旨在解決人類面臨的貧窮,饑餓,疾病,環境

惡化,歧視婦女等問題，大多數目標完成時

間是2015年。

The stated MDGs are: eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environmental sustainability; and, develop a global partnership for development. Now forming the crux of global development thrusts, MDGs primarily focus on the social and environmental impacts for poverty reduction, as well as necessary requisites for their achievement through investment in economic infrastructure, productive private sector-led employment, and good governance.千年發展目標是：消滅貧窮饑餓；普及

初等教育；促進兩性平等；降低兒童死亡；

改善產婦保健；與艾滋病毒／艾滋病 ,瘧

疾以及其他疾病作鬥爭；確保環境可持續

力；全球合作促進發展。千年發展目標關

注社會和環境對於消滅貧窮的影響，以及

實現這些目標的必要條件，包括投資於經

濟基礎設施 ,以富有生產力的私營部門為

主導的就業，以及良好的治理等。


Economy 53

… ADB’s Development Focus on Asia Pacific

The ABC oF MDGs 千年發展目標現況 …亞洲開發銀行致力推動亞太發展作者/by Jack Dixon

Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP) to monitor progress, raise awareness, help improve policies and institutions, and develop capacities for achieving the region’s MDGs. The partnership also produces annual MDG updates and sector specific reports for the region.在亞洲開發銀行（亞行）的努力下，亞

太地區已經成為千年發展目標的中流砥柱。

亞行通過其完善的減貧戰略，致力推動夥

伴國家的既定目標付諸實現。亞行與聯合

國發展計劃署（UNDP）, 聯合

國亞洲及太平洋經濟社會委員

會（UNESCAP）共同開展區域

性的千年發展目標合作，以監

測進度，提高意識，幫助改進

政策和制度，培養能力，旨在

實現本地區的千年發展目標。

這些機構還合作編製本地區的

千年發展目標年度更新，以及

有關領域的報告。

In its fourth annual study, “Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in an Era of Global Uncertainty: Asia-Pacific Regional Re-

Enter the ADB走近亞行

The Asia-Pacific region was brought into the MDG mainstream by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which committed its resources towards the attainment of the specified goals in partner countries through its Enhanced Poverty Reduction Strategy. It engaged in a regional MDG partnership with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Economic and

port 2009/10,” the ADB-UN partner-ship had the unenviable task of assess-ing the effects of the global economic downturn on the attainment of MDGs in the region, and exploring measures to make regional economies more socially resilient to cyclical economic adversities.亞行與聯合國合作編製的第四份年度研

究報告《在世界充滿不確定因素的時代實

現千年發展目標：2009-2010 亞太地區報

告》，評價了全球經濟衰退給本地區實現千

年發展目標所造成的影響，並研究措施加

強區域經濟抵禦經濟週期下滑的能力。

Pre-Crisis Status危機前的狀況

As a backdrop, ADB started out with a pre-crisis rating of “early achiever” for the region as a whole as it made impres-sive gains in such indicators as reduc-ing gender disparities in primary and tertiary education; stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis; ensur-ing a proportion of protected areas for bio-diversity; reducing consumption of ozone-depleting substances, and halving the proportion of people with no access


Economy54

Asian Development Bank

Photo © : www.fLIckR.com uPLoADeD by cIty of mAnDALuyong

to safe drinking water. The region was also “on track” in three other vital targets: gender parity in secondary education, ensuring universal access of children to primary school, and halving the propor-tion of people living below the $1.25-a-day poverty line.在開篇的背景介紹中，亞行給危機前整

個地區的評價是「先行一步」，其在許多領

域都取得顯著成果，如減少初等和高等教

育中的性別不公；遏制艾滋病毒／艾滋病

和肺結核傳播；確保一定比例的保護區保

持生物多樣性；減少消耗臭氧物質的使用；

使喝不上安全飲用水的人口比

例減半。本地區「按部就班」

向其他三個關鍵目標邁進：中

等教育兩性平等 ,普及兒童初

等教育，以及把生活在貧困線

（每天 1.25 美元）的人口比例

減半。

The report hailed South-east Asia as having made the greatest advances, with targets already achieved in 11 of the 21 assessed indicators, and on track for another four. It cited North and Central Asia as having achieved the targets in nine of the indica-tors. However, it noted that South Asia might have made progress on eight indicators but was moving slowly in many others, while the Pacific Island countries were making no progress or even regressing on 11 indicators and advanc-ing only in another two.報告稱讚東南亞取得最大進

步，在 21 項評價指標中已達成

11 項，還有四項正在實現之中。

報告說，北亞和中亞達成九項指標；南亞

在八項指標上有進步，但是在其他許多指

標上進展緩慢；而太平洋島國在 11 項指標

上不進反退，僅兩項指標有所進步。

ADB’s overall assessment of the region compared to others in the world: “The Asia-Pacific region as a whole has made more progress than Sub-Saharan Africa, but less than Latin America and the Caribbean. It lags behind Sub-Saharan Africa only on under-five children un-derweight, but is behind Latin America and the Caribbean on most indicators

– coming close only for primary enrol-ment. Despite the progress, Asia and the Pacific (are) still the home to the largest number – more than 50 percent – of people, both rural and urban, without basic sanitation, of under-5 children who are underweight, of people infected with TB, of people living on less than $1.25 per day, and of rural people without ac-cess to clean water.”與世界其他地區相比，亞行對本地區的

評價是：「亞太地區整體上比撒哈拉以南非

洲更有進步，但遜色於拉丁美洲和加勒比

海地區。它只在五歲以下兒童低體重這一

項上，落後於撒哈拉以南非洲，但在大多

數指標上，均不如拉丁美洲和加勒比海地

區，唯有初等教育還算接近。雖然有進步，

但是亞太地區依然有最多（超過 50%）的

城市和農村人口缺少基本的衛生設施，有

最多的五歲以下兒童低體重，有最多的人

感染肺結核，有最多的人每天收入不到1.25

美元，也有最多的農村人口喝不到乾淨水。」

Post-Crisis Threats危機後的挑戰

The report specifies two major threats to the attainment of MDGs in the Asia-Pacific region. Firstly, “in 2009, the crisis could trap an additional 17 million people on incomes of less than $1.25 a day, and another 4 million in 2010.” Being connected globally through such multiple economic chan-nels as trade, tourism, foreign direct investments, official development assis-tance and remittances, the region is vul-nerable to setbacks with each country’s vulnerability dependent on the extent of its integration into the global economy plus its capacity to cope, i.e., how it fares on such issues as macroeconomic stability, institutional strength and so-cial development. Based on calculations for each country’s “vulnerability index,” the report finds the Asia-Pacific region as having a similar coping capacity to Latin America and the Caribbean but is less exposed to the crisis; and compared with Africa, is more exposed to the crisis but is in a much stronger posi-tion in terms of coping capacity. Within the Asia-Pacific country group, both South Asia and Southeast Asia have less exposure to the crisis but the latter has greater coping capacity; while at the other end of the spectrum, the Pacific


Economy 55

Despite the progress, Asia and the Pacific (are) still the home to the largest number – more than 50 percent – of people, both rural and urban, without basic sanitation, of under-5 children who are underweight, of people infected with TB, of people living on less than $1.25 per day, and of rural people without access to clean water.”

islands are the most exposed and gener-ally have lower coping capacity.報告說亞太地區實現千年發展目標主要

有兩個挑戰。一是「這場危機可能使日均

收入低於 1.25 美元的人數在 2009 年增加

1,700 萬，在 2010 年增加 400 萬」。因為

在商貿 ,旅遊 ,外資 ,官方發展援助 ,匯

款等經濟領域與世界聯繫緊密，本地區容

易受到衝擊，各國的脆弱程度取決於其融

入世界經濟的程度，還有自身的應對能力，

即如何處理諸如宏觀經濟穩定 ,制度力量

和社會發展之類的問題。通過計算各國的

「脆弱指數」，報告發現亞太地區的應對能

力同拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區不相上下，

但受危機衝擊相對較小；而跟非洲相比，

亞太地區的應對能力強得多，但受危機衝

擊也大得多。縱觀亞太地區，南亞和東南

亞受危機衝擊較輕，但後者的應對能力更

強；太平洋島國受衝擊最重，應對能力最差。

Secondly, there’s the major concern about lower tax revenues as a result of the global economic slowdown. This entails fiscal imbalances which force governments to react by, among other measures, cutting expenditures – one course of action that poses poten-tially serious implications towards the achievement of MDGs. In an examina-tion of a select set of 12 countries, only six were still in fiscal balance as com-pared to the pre-crisis figure of nine, with all expecting either higher deficits or lower surpluses in 2009 and seven looking at budget deficits in excess of 3.5 percent of GDP – a level that can seriously undermine sustainability. But an upside to the equation is noted: none of the governments has reduced spending on the social sector, with the exception of Samoa; most have more-over increased investments in the sector, appearing determined to protect social-sector expenditures despite prospects of higher deficits.第二，全球經濟下滑導致稅收減少，埋

下一個隱患。因為害怕財政失衡，政府不

得不採取包括削減開支在內的措施，而一

旦削減開支，可能嚴重影響千年發展目標

的實現。在選取 12 個國家作研究後發現，

只有六個國家仍能保持財政平衡，而危機

之前是九個；2009 年所有國家都會出現

赤字上升，或者盈餘下降，有七個國家的

預算赤字可能超過 GDP 的 3.5%，這將嚴

重破壞穩定。然而令人欣慰的是，除薩摩

亞外，各國政府均未削減社會民生開支，

甚至大多數政府增加了對這個領域的投

入，表現出保證民生的決心，縱使赤字增

加也在所不惜。

Protecting the MDGs保障千年發展目標

In the short term, the report recom-mends two courses of action the govern-ments can undertake to protect the gains already made for MDGs: fiscal stimulus packages with strong social expenditure components, and the strengthening of social protection systems.短期而言，報告建議政府可從兩途徑著

手，保護千年發展目標已經取得的成果：

重點向民生傾斜的財政刺激計劃；及加強

社會保障體系。

Fiscal stimulus packages compensate for the loss of export demand from developed economies, which was most evident during the present crisis. They are designed to boost domestic demand, with Asia-Pacific governments increas-ing public spending on infrastructure such as roads and power supplies while also cutting taxes on some goods and services. The report contends that with a strong social expenditure component, stimulus packages are likely to result in a double dividend – boosting growth more rapidly, and accelerating progress towards MDGs to make them “pro-MDG.” It, however, notes that China’s package, for one, was only 25 percent pro-MDG at best, with the balance being MDG-neutral. “Had the whole package been pro-MDG,” the report


Economy56

further says, “then not only would the poor have benefited more, there would also have been a greater economic boost – not 21.3 percent but 38.0 percent ac-cumulated over several years.”財政刺激計劃可彌補發達國家出口需求

的萎縮，這正是本次危機的特點。財政刺

激計劃旨在提振內需，為此，亞太各國政

府都加大了道路 , 電力等基礎建設投入，

同時削減商品和服務稅。報告稱，因為力

保民生，刺激計劃可一舉兩得，既促進經

濟迅速增長，又加快千年發展目標實現，

可說是利於千年發展目標。但報告指出，

中國的刺激計劃至多只有 25% 有利於千年

發展目標，其他對千年發展目標而言只算

是中性。「假如整個計劃都利於千年發展

目標，」報告說：「則不僅窮人受益更多，

經濟也能有更大發展，七年內的累計增幅

將不是 21.3%，而是 38.0%。」

On the other hand, Asia-Pacific coun-tries can strengthen or start instituting systems of social protection such as social insurance, social assistance, labour market services, a range of social services particu-larly for women and children, and many types of local funds like micro-credit schemes. While many governments in the region already have most of these forms, they are limited in one way or another: social insurance reaching only a small pro-portion of the workforce; only 20 percent of the unemployed and under-employed having access to unemployment ben-efits; only 30 percent of seniors receiving pensions, etc. To better enable prosecu-tion of these schemes, the report recom-

markets; better coordination between countries on labour migration through bilateral agreements which spell out broad frameworks to address common concerns; and, raising the level of intra-regional development assistance similar to the rising trend in South-South coop-eration from such developing countries in the region as China, India and Thai-land. It summed up: “Stronger coopera-tion across the region – via agreements on trade, finance, labour migration and development assistance – could thus make the region more resilient to future crises and bolster the capacity of many of the poorest countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.” 報告列出幾個可以進行區域內合作的領

域：通過自由貿易制度 ,改善運輸網絡和

簡化通關檢驗程序，促進本地區的貿易往

來，實現出口市場多樣化，減少對西方需

求的依賴；放寬外資流動管制，加強金融

市場間融合，以促進債券和股票市場的跨

境投資；深化貨幣政策和貨幣市場方面的

合作；國家之間加強協調，通過雙邊協議

建立廣泛框架，解決共同關切，促進勞動

力流動；提高區域內的發展援助水平，使

之接近於中國 ,印度 ,泰國等發展中國家

日益深化的南南合作。報告最後總結：「通

過貿易 ,金融 ,勞動力遷移和發展援助等

方面的共識，進一步加強區域合作，這將

使本地區更有把握抵禦未來的危機，增強

許多最貧困國家的實力，早日實現千年發

展目標。」 |AT|

mends vastly improving their taxation systems’ efficiency, and combining this primary financing source with other types. It stated: “This region should certainly be able to do more. Prior to the current crisis, it had been growing at an average annual rate of 8 percent – creating economic resources that can and should be allocated to building systems capable of reaching all mem-bers of society at all times. And there are signs that countries are moving towards more comprehensive social protection systems – from extending cash transfers to offering guarantees of employment.”另一方面，亞太國家可以加強或者著

手構建社會保障制度，如社會保險 ,社

會援助 ,勞動市場服務 ,方方面面的社

會服務（尤其是關乎婦女兒童的服務），

以及各類地方基金（如小額信貸計劃）。

在這些領域，本地區的政府大多都有涉

足，惟力度尚待加強：社會保險所覆蓋的

勞動人口比例偏低；只有 20% 的失業者和

就業不足者能享受到失業福利；只有 30%

的長者能領到退休金……為了更好地推行

這些計劃，報告建議大力改善稅收體系的

效率，以稅收為主渠道，同時開闢其他的

資金來源。報告稱：「本地區無疑有能力做

得更好。危機發生前，其年均增長速度達

到 8%，由此創造的經濟資源能夠也應該投

入到制度建設上，讓全體社會成員無論何

時都能得到保障。有跡象顯示，一些國家

正在向更加全面的社會保障體系努力，涵

蓋了從收入轉移到保證就業的廣泛領域。」

Prospects for Cooperation合作前景

In the medium and longer term, the report recommends a more sustainable way of generating domestic demand by increasing household incomes and consumption, alongside boosting corporate development. Consumption is likely to increase, it said, if a greater share of the national income goes to the poor through investments in the capacities and capabilities of the poor – an inclusive pattern of growth that increases the poor’s contribution to the GDP and reduces poverty by broadening the economic base. In this regard, it becomes appropriate for governments to incentivise the private sector to make it more profitable to invest in sectors oriented less towards exports and more towards meeting domestic

demand, and especially the needs of the poor, through policies on exchange rates, taxation and subsidies. Moreover, the report suggests more innovation involving credit facilities so that households could make more balanced choices between current and future consumption.中長期而言，報告建議說，除了促進企

業發展，還可以通過增加家庭收入和消費

來刺激內需，這是一個更具可持續性的途

徑。報告指出，若能通過扶危濟困的投資，

把更大部份的國家收入投向貧困階層，則

拉動消費指日可待。這種增長模式使整個

社會都參與其中，擴大了經濟基礎，增加

了貧困階層對經濟的貢獻，達到消滅貧困

之效。為此，政府應調動私營部門的積極性，

通過匯率 ,稅收和補貼的政策手段，引導

私營部門減少出口投資，增加內需投資，

尤其是照顧貧困階層的需要。報告還建議

在信貸上多做創新，讓家庭能在當前和未

來的消費上兩全其美。

The report also identifies several areas of intra-regional cooperation: diver-sifying export markets towards less dependence on demand in the West by boosting trade within the region through liberal trade regimes, improved transport links and simplified customs and inspec-tion procedures; the easing of restrictions on the flow of foreign direct investments and better-integrated financial markets to facilitate cross-border investment in bonds and equities; greater coopera-tion on monetary policy and currency


Economy 57

Part I 第I部

Know Your StocK ExchangES

作者/by Bert Olbes

證券交易所博覽This series is noT meanT To be analytical but to be informative, that is, to provide Asian Tigers readers a measure of familiarity with the major stock exchanges of countries in which this publication is distributed. Each has its own history, ins, outs, restrictions and other peculiarities which can be of interest to prospective investors in the region.

本系列不屬於分析報告，而是一種資訊介紹，旨在讓亞洲虎讀者熟悉本刊發行所在國家的主要證劵交易所。每一證券交易所均有自己的歷史演化,來龍去脈,規章制度及其他特質，而這正是區內準投資者們感興趣的地方。

Specifically, this is not about whether indices (or indexes) are broad or narrow, or whether boards are big or small, or which stocks to buy and which ones to avoid, this is primarily about distinguishing aspects that relate to, among other things, the issues of criteria for a company to be listed and who may buy stocks (are foreigners allowed to or not, and how?) along with other information such as market growth, extent of listings, overall performance of exchanges, as well as the latest news and developments respective to each. 確切的說，本文不是討論各交易所指數

範圍的寬窄,董事會的大小，不是講解哪些

該入貨,哪些不能碰，而是剖析各交易所之

間的不同，例如上市標準,投資者資格（是

否允許境外投資者？政策如何？）以及有

關各交易所市場發展,上市公司範圍,整體

表現,新聞熱點等資訊。

It is essential beforehand to provide an overview of the distinction between

58 Information


the entire listing of stocks of a particular exchange and those comprising its index. A stock index is a “basket” of stocks designed to reflect the composite value of its underlying stocks. The most regularly quoted market indexes are broad-based indexes, which are based on the stocks of large companies listed on a nation’s stock exchanges such as the US’s Dow Jones Industrial Average, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s main index, the Hang Seng, which consists of the 33 largest companies that trade on Hong Kong’s exchange. China’s CSI 300, a capitalization-weighted stock market representation of the

performance of 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, was the world’s best performing major index in 2009 – beating the British FTSE 100, the French CAC 40, and the German DAX. It should be pointed out that many of the largest stock exchanges in the world have sub-indices, such as Hong Kong’s, which has 11, Singapore’s which has 23, and New York’s, which has virtually too many too count. All have narrower bases which can be cap-, growth-, industry- or sector-specific.首先必須提前摸清一間交易所的上市股票

與其指數成份股之間的大體區別。股票指


Economy 59Information 59


數由「一籃子」股票組成，旨在反映基礎

股票的綜合價值。最常引用的市場指數是

寬基指數，它以在全國證券交易所上市的

大型公司的股票為基準，如美國道瓊斯工業

平均指數,日本日經225指數及香港的主要指

數——恒生指數（由在香港交易所交易的最

大的33間公司組成）。中國滬深300指數是

一支追蹤滬深兩地交易所中300支股票表現

的市值加權指數，該指數於2009年擊敗英國

富時100指數,法國CAC 40指數和德國DAX指

數等主要指數，摘得當年全球最佳表現指數

的桂冠。值得一提的是，全球眾多大型證

券交易所均有分類指數，如香港證券交易所

有11支，新加坡證券交易所有23支，紐約證

券交易所的分類指數更是數不勝數。分類指

數的基準範圍更窄，有市值,成長性,行業或

部門之分。

The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE)上海證券交易所（上證所）

Unlike the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is still not entirely open to foreign investors owing to stringent capital account controls exercised by the Chinese Mainland authorities (“Mainland” denotes the area under the jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), excluding Hong Kong and Macau, which are also under the jurisdiction of the PRC but run on different economic and political systems). The aforementioned second independently-operated stock exchange in the PRC, the

Shenzhen Stock Exchange, is not directly covered herein but is inextricably part of this write-up because it forms part of China’s CSI 300, which later will be visited in much more detail. It was number six worldwide in Total Share Turnover in millions of USD (1,701,256.8) as of the beginning of September, 2009. 不同於香港證券交易所，上海證券交易所

（上證所）因中國內地政府設有嚴格的資本

管制，目前尚未完全對外開放（「內地」指

在中華人民共和國司法管轄區之內的地區，

不包括同在中國司法管轄下但具有不同經濟

政治體制的香港和澳門）。作為中國的第二

大獨立運營證券交易所，本文並未談及深

圳證券交易所，但深交所卻是本系列不可

回避的話題之一，因為它是中國滬深300指

數不可分割的部份。我們將在以後對深交所

做詳細介紹。2009年9月初，深交所在全球

交易所百萬美元級成交量俱樂部中排名第六

(1,701,256.8美元)。

Having become fully operational on December 19, 1990, the SSE is a “non-profit organization” and membership institution directly administered by the China Securities Regulatory Commis-sion (CSRC). The SSE’s development is anchored on the principle of “legisla-tion, supervision, self-regulation and standardization” to create a transparent, open, safe and efficient marketplace. The bottom line is that the SSE is fully com-mitted to the objective of state-owned

industrial enterprises reform and devel-oping Shanghai into an international financial centre.上證所於 1990 年 12月 19日開始全面運

營，是一間「非營利性組織」，採用會員制，

由中國證券監督管理委員會（證監會）直接

管理。秉承「法制 ,監管 ,自律 ,規範」的

八字方針，上證所致力於創造透明 ,開放 ,

安全 ,高效的市場環境。上證所的根本任務

是配合國企改革的目標，使上海發展成為國

際金融中心。

Panorama of Shanghai , the city of China


Information60


And it is succeeding. Its growth has been nothing less than spectacular since 1990 – perhaps not coinciden-tally in the same way that the city it is located in can be described. By January 1, 2008, the SSE boasted of 860 listed companies. By January 1, 2010 it had grown to 873 listed companies from key industries, infrastructure and high-tech sectors that have not only raised capital, but also improved their opera-tional mechanisms through listing on the Shanghai stock market. No foreign companies are listed in the SSE, un-like for example the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in which 495 out of 2,099 or 23.6% of its listed stocks are of foreign companies. (Certain rules for a company to become listed in the SSE will be revealed later in this write-up.) 上證所的成績亦是有目共睹。自 1990 年

以來，上證所的發展速度令人側目—無獨

有偶，上證所所在的城市也正以同樣的方

式飛速向前。截至 2008 年 1 月 1 日，上證

所已有 860 間上市公司。到 2010 年 1 月 1

日更已增至 873 間，以工業 ,基礎設施和

高科技領域的公司為主。來滬上市，使這

些公司不僅募集到了所需資金，更完善了

運營機制。上證所沒有外國公司上市，而

在紐約證券交易所的 2,099 間上市公司中，

外國公司達 495 間，佔 23.6%。（後文將列

舉上證所的若干上市規定）。

On January 17, 2010 “The Business Times” reported the SSE had surpassed Tokyo as Asia’s biggest stock market by value of shares traded in 2009, after activ-ity had doubled there year on year. Shares worth US$5.01 trillion were traded in Shanghai, compared with US$4 trillion in Tokyo, the latter for many years having been Asia’s biggest stock market, accord-ing to data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE). The year before, in 2008, Shanghai traded just US$2.6 trillion worth of shares, compared with US$5.6 trillion in Tokyo.據 2010 年 1 月 17 日的《商業時報》報道，

因成交量較上年同期翻番，上證所 2009

年的股票成交額已超越東京，榮登亞洲股

票市場第一把交椅。據世界交易所聯合會

(WFE) 的數據顯示，多年來雄霸亞洲最大

市值股票市場寶座的東京，目前股票成交

量有 4萬億美元，但上海已達到 5.01 萬億

美元。然而僅僅在一年之前，即 2008 年，

上海的股票成交額僅為 2.6 萬億美元，與

東京的 5.6 萬億美元相差甚遠。

This came on the heels of an earlier report from the WFE that by Septem-ber 1, 2009, the SSE was already third in total shares turnover worldwide (while being ranked 6th in total market value). Furthermore, its blue chip (SSE 180) Index performance grew by 2.1% between January 1, 2009 and January 1, 2010. A blue chip stock is the stock of a well-established company that has displayed long-term, stable earnings and is not saddled with extensive liabilities. Blue chip stocks pay regular dividends, even in times when the company is not doing as well as expected. The term originates from casinos, where blue

Information 61

chips represent(ed) greater value than other coloured chips.此前 WEF還有報告顯示，截至 2009 年 9

月 1日，上證所的股票總成交額已躋身全球

三甲（總市值全球排名第六）。在 2009 年 1

月 1日至 2010 年 1月 1日間，其藍籌股指

數 (上證 180) 更上升了 2.1個百分點。藍

籌股是指經營良好 ,有長期穩定的盈餘記

錄 ,負債不高的公司的股票。藍籌股能夠定

期派發股息，即使偶有業績不如預期的情況

出現。藍籌一詞源自賭場，在賭場上藍色籌

碼的價值大於其他任何顏色的籌碼。

The SSE Selects Investor Education Experts上證所評選投資者教育能手

Not only growth but stability is a goal of the SSE. This is considered by the PRC to be operative to the protection of the interests of investors, which in turn is a top priority of the Exchange. In March 15, 2010 the SSE started selecting the experts in investor education via a “learning before service” appraisal activity that will ultimately aid investors to protect themselves through various educational activities that will enhance communication between regulatory authorities and securities companies as well as between securities companies and investors.

上證所的目標是在發展的同時維持穩定。

中國認為這樣可以有效地保護投資者利益，

因而也成為了上證所的第一要務。2010 年

3月 15日，上證所舉行了「我服務 ,我先知」

投資者教育能手評選活動，希望透過多種

學習活動幫助投資者提高自我保護的能力，

同時增進監管機構與證券公司以及證券公

司與投資者之間的溝通交流。

To proactively recruit qualified educa-tors, the SSE issued a directive to securi-ties companies requiring all member companies to recommend candidates for investor education experts before Febru-ary 24, 2010. “We think highly of the activity and immediately launched an internal application and selection process after receiving the notice. Our staff is enthusiastic about the appraisal,” said a broker engaged in investor education for many years.為招募合格園丁，上證所向各證券公司

發出指令，要求他們在 2010 年 2 月 24 日

前推薦投資者教育能手候選人。「我們非常

重視該項活動，接到通知後公司立刻制定

並啟動了內部的申報 ,評選等程序，員工

也表現出了很高的積極性。」一位從事多年

投資者教育工作的券商人士說。

As investor education relies on knowl-edge dissemination, the front-line educational personnel have to be qualified

in facilitating customers’ understanding of prevailing market conditions, in terms of customers developing a keen under-standing of risks and becoming learned in choosing the right investments. 投資者教育工作重在傳播，因此一線投

資者教育人員素質是關鍵，只有他們掌握

了知識，把握了風險，才可能將正確的知

識理念傳輸給客戶；只有他們認真地了解

客戶的情況，才可能將合適的產品推薦給

合適的人。

The SSE conducted significant prepa-ratory work for the selection, coming up with a special appraisal process covering preliminary reviews, online voting and professional committee examinations. To assure transparency and fairness, the committee tapped experts from the China Securities Regulatory Com-mission, the Securities Association of China, and the media. 上證所對此次評選活動做了大量的準備

工作，並特別設計了「初審—網絡投票—

專家委員會評審」的評審程序。為保證評

審程序的公開 ,公平 ,公正，專家委員會

將主要聘請證監會 ,證券業協會 ,媒體資

深人士等外部專家擔任。

Certain Listing Requirements by the SSE上證所的若干上市規定

According to the regulations of the Securities Law and Company Law of the PRC, limited companies applying for the listing of shares must meet the following conditions:根據中華人民共和國證券法和公司法的

規定，申請股票上市的有限公司須滿足以

下條件：

● The shares must have been publicly issued following approval of the State Council Securities Management Department.

●須經國務院證券管理部門批准後方可公

開發股。

● The company’s total share capital must not be less than RMB 50 million.

●總股本不得低於人民幣 5千萬元。

● The company has had to be in business for the three years prior and demon-



Information62

strated profitability for the last three consecutive years. The number of share-holders with holdings of values in excess of RMB 1,000 must not be less than 1,000 persons. Publicly offered shares must be more than 25% of the compa-ny’s total share capital. With companies whose total share capital exceeds RMB 400 million, the ratio of publicly offered shares must be more than 15%.

●至少經營三年，過去三年持續盈利。持

股超過 1,000 元人民幣的股東人數不得

少於 1,000 人。公開發行股票須至少佔

該公司總股本的 25%。如果發行時總股本

超過人民幣 4億元，發行比例不得低於

15%。

● The company must not have been guilty of any major illegal activities or false ac-counting records in the last three years.

●過去三年不得有重大違法行為，過去三

年的財務報告中無虛假記載。

Purchasing Stocks in the SSE

在上證所購買股票Stocks in the SSE, primarily Shanghai

B stocks, can be purchased by foreigners through joint-venture brokerages (the PRC keeps a 33% cap on foreign ownership of joint-venture brokerages). Singapore-based Philips On-line Electronic Mart System (POEMS), for example, has nine foreign offices, including one in China through which transactions to buy stock listed on the SSE can be made. 境外投資者可透過合資券商公司（中國規

定外資在合資券商公司中的股權不得超過33%）在上證所購買股票，主要是滬市B股。以新加坡的Philips On-line Electronic Mart System (POEMS)為例，該公司共有9間國外辦事處，其中之一設在中國，透過該辦事處便可購買上證所的股票。

Stocks in China have rallied more than five-fold in the past two years, with more than 47.5 million trading accounts opening there in the year 2009 alone. China’s CSI 300 was the world’s best-performing major index last year as well, as mentioned earlier. For more information, visit http://www.sse.com.cn過去兩年中國股市上漲了5倍之多，僅

2009年一年便有超過4,750萬個新開股票交易賬戶。如前所述，中國滬深300指數也在去年成為了全球表現最佳的主要指數。更多詳情請訪問http://www.sse.com.cn.|AT|

Investment-Related Information on the CSI 300 Index滬深300指數的投資相關資訊

Its Ten Largest Companies (as of December 31, 2009)十大公司（截至2009年12月31日）

Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd 中國平安 3.92% Citic Securities Co Ltd 中信證券 3.64% China Merchants Bank Co Ltd 招商銀行 2.98% China Petroleum & Chemical Group 中國石化 2.89% Bank of Communications Co Ltd 交通銀行 2.60% Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd 寶鋼股份 2.49% China Yangtze Power Co Ltd 長江電力 2.39% China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd 民生銀行 2.24% Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 浦發銀行 2.23% China Vanke Co Ltd 萬科股份 1.93%

Sector Weightings行業比重

1. Finance 金融 36.38% Industry 工業 15.93% 3. Basic Materials 基礎材料 13.55% 4. Energy 能源 9.75% 5. Utilities 公用事業 7.53% 6. Consumer Goods 消費品 7.01% 7. Capital 資本 4.90% 8. Information Technology 信息技術 2.11% 9. Telecommunications 電信 1.50% 10. Health 保健 1.42%

The CSI 300 has ten sub-indices: specifically Energy; Materials; Industrial; Consumer Discretion; Consumer Staples; Health Care; Financial; Information Technology; Telecommunications and Utilities Indexes. 滬深 300 指數有 10 個分類指數，分別是能源 ,材料 ,工業 ,非必需消費品 ,

日常消費品 ,醫療保健 ,金融 ,信息技術 ,電信及公用事業指數。

A major way in which Retail/ Individual Investments in the CSI 300 can be made is via the “WISE CSI 300 China Tracker” ETF, which is a link off the Bloomberg.com website.散戶投資者／個人投資者可透過「標智滬深 300 中國指數」基金（Bloomberg.

com 網站上有鏈接）投資滬深 300 指數。

In our next issue watch out for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), its Nikkei 225 and its Topix Core 30 Index and what you might want to learn about them as a prospective investor: total listings of companies, sector classifications, market growth and other information and data.下期將介紹東京證券交易所及該交易所的日經 225指數 ,東證核心 30指數，

還有更多準投資者想要了解的內容：上市公司總數 ,行業分類 ,市場增長及

其他資訊數據。


Energy 63

For participants in the Indonesian oil & gas sector, opportuni-ties and challenges seem to go hand in hand. The general consensus is that the opportunities here are bigger than the challenges. Considering the grow-ing global demand for natural gas and Indonesia’s potential to cater to this demand, the number of opportunities for investment in this sector is high. There are vast areas of offshore blocks with potential reserves yet to be ex-plored. Indonesia holds a lot of promise for deepwater oil & gas discoveries in Southeast Asia.

對於印尼油氣行業的從業者而言，機遇與挑

戰總是同生共存，但市場普遍認為機遇仍大

印尼油氣行業的機遇與挑戰Oil & Gas industryindOnesianOppOrtunities and Challenges in the

於挑戰。考慮到全球天然氣需求的不斷增長

和印尼滿足這種需求的潛力，該行業的投資

機遇不可估量。印尼有大面積未開採的近海

油田，儲量潛力巨大。在東南亞，印尼的深

海油氣開採前景十分可觀。

Indonesia has 3.18 trillion cubic meters of proved gas reserves making it the top ranking country in Asia for gas reserves. Indonesia is a key exporter of natural gas to the major demand markets in the world. On the flip side, Indonesia is faced with the prospect of mature oil fields and declining oil reserves. The only solution is to discover more reserves by attracting investment into the upstream sector.印尼擁有 3.18 萬億立方米已探明天然氣

儲量，位居亞洲第一，是全球主要需求市

場的重要天然氣出口國。但與此同時，印

尼也面臨著成熟油田產量前景及石油儲量

逐漸減少的擔憂。唯有吸引投資進入上游

領域、探明更多儲量，方為正解。

Deepwater exploration and production is an emerging area in Indonesia. Frost & Sullivan estimates that the total Subsea capital expenditure in Indonesia for the next three years (2010 to 2012) will be around US$ 1.7 billion. This expenditure includes drilling and completion, equip-ment, pipelines and control lines.深海開採生產在印尼尚屬新興產業。

Frost & Sullivan 預計，未來三年（2010

年至 2012 年）印尼的海底資本開支將達

17 億美元左右，包括鑽井完井、設備、管

道及控制線在內。

The export demand for natural gas is projected to increase. With demand from

作者/by Subramanya Bettadapura

Energy64


local power plants and fertilizer plants also increasing, Indonesia has to do a bal-ancing act satisfying both domestic and foreign demand. 天然氣的出口需求呈增長之勢，加上本

地發電廠和化肥廠對天然氣需求的進一步

提升，印尼必須採取行動平衡內外需求。

The recessionary tendencies have damp-ened natural gas export demand giving opportunity to service the local demand. However, as export demand picks up again, Indonesia would have to have a tougher balancing act to do. The solution would be to bring new LNG projects online faster. 經濟衰退雖挫傷了天然氣出口需求，但

也為本地需求提供了更多資源。然而一旦

出口需求重拾升軌，如何走好這個平衡木

則更難拿捏。促使新液化天然氣 (LNG) 項

目儘快上馬倒不妨一試。

The foreign investors in the oil & gas sector have shown a selective preference for export oriented LNG projects. The view is that these projects minimize po-litical risks and bring in foreign exchange. On the other hand, foreign investors have spurned projects being developed for local demand with a view that these projects are likely to be unviable. Reasons quoted for this are the low credit worthiness of domestic gas off-takers such as PLN. These projects are also considered to have high political risks. 油氣行業的外國投資者對液化天然氣出

口項目顯示出了極大興趣，認為此類項目

不僅能夠降低政治風險，還可帶來創匯機

遇。但另一方面，外國投資者對內需導向

型項目卻敬而遠之，認為這些項目無利可

圖。他們之所以會有如此想法，主要是因

為 PLN 等國內天然氣承購方信譽過低，而

國內項目的政治風險過高亦是一個原因。

To draw foreign participants to the table, export oriented projects are needed with-out politicizing the entire deal. Politicizing

a project delays its regulatory approval pro-cess, especially during the time of elections. The approval delay escalates project costs forcing possible investors to consider pull-ing out of the deal. A recent example is the Donngi Sonoro (Sulawesi) LNG project. 為吸引外國投資者的參與，必須開放出

口項目，且對整個交易不得予以政治干預。

因為政治干預將會延長項目的監管審批時

間，在大選時節尤其如此。而審批的延長

則會抬高項目成本，或迫使投資者考慮放

棄。近期發生的 Donngi Sonoro（蘇拉威西）

液化天然氣項目，便是一個實例。

A possible solution in those cases would be export most of the production from new projects and earmark some portion for local demand without making the entire project economically unviable. Investors are needed for the development of domestic gas infrastructure面對上述問題，允許新項目的大部份產

量出口，同時為本地需求留出一定比例，

從而減少對整個項目盈利能力的影響，或

許會是一個可行的解決方案。國內天然氣

基礎設施的發展需要引進資金。

Tax disputes have been mentioned as a challenge by foreign oil companies oper-ating in Indonesia.

對於印尼的外國石油公司而言，稅收爭

議一直是個解不開的難題。

Another issue is the slow pace of lib-eralization in the downstream sector. The national oil company Pertamina domi-nates the refining sector. Reforms to open the sector to competition are progressing slowly delaying investments into this crucial sector. 另一大挑戰則是下游行業的開放速度

緩慢。印尼的精煉業由國家石油公司

Pertamina 一家獨大。開放競爭的改革進

展緩慢，以致這一關鍵行業遲遲沒有迎來

投資的春天。

Indonesia has chalked out plans to al-low foreign investment into the refining sector. This is necessary as the country is unable to meet the current domestic demand for refined petroleum products. This demand presents enormous oppor-tunities to invest in the refining sector. This is good not only for the investing oil & gas majors but also for the equip-ment and service providers. Indonesia scores high in the strategic expansion plans of the major oil & gas equipment and service providers.印尼已制定計劃，擬逐步向外國投資者

開放精煉業務。這一計劃的施行極有必要，

因為印尼目前已無法滿足國內對精煉產品

的需求。這股需求為精煉行業的投資帶來

了巨大商機，不單是油氣投資巨頭將會受

益，設備和服務供應商亦可從中分得一杯

羹。印尼十分重視主要油氣設備和服務供

應商的策略擴張計劃。 |AT|

This article was authored by Subramanya Bettadapura, Associate Director, Energy & Power Systems Practice, Asia Pacific, Frost & Sullivan. 本文作者：Subramanya Bettadapura（Frost & Sullivan亞太能源和電力系統分部副總監）

Data as of End 2008 截至2008年底數據

Gas Proved Reserves 探明天然氣儲量 3.18 Trillion Cubic Meters 3.18萬億立方米

Gas Production 天然氣產量 69.7 Billion Cubic Meters 697億立方米

Gas Consumption 天然氣消耗量 38 Billion Cubic Meters 380億立方米

Oil Proved Reserves 探明石油儲量 3.7 Thousand Million Barrels 37億桶

Oil Production 石油產量 1004 Thousand Barrels per day 100.4萬桶／天

Oil Consumption 石油消耗量 1217 Thousand Barrels per day 121.7萬桶／天

Refinery Capacity 精煉產能 1157 Thousand Barrels per day 115.7萬桶／天

Source: BP Statistical Review


Economy 65

The recenT world financial crisis has revived discussions on some previously shelved ideas. Among these is the proposal for an Asian Monetary Fund (AMF). First proposed at the height of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, the AMF was intended to provide a pool of funds from which member-countries could draw from in case they run into a severe shortage of foreign currencies. The core idea is practically the same as the one that gave birth to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main difference: the intended regional instead of international scope for sourcing and using the pooled funds.

全球金融危機陰霾漸散，某些曾被遺忘話題

的討論重又熱絡起來，其中之一便是成立

亞洲貨幣基金組織 (AMF)。AMF 構想最初在

1997 年亞洲金融危機爆發的高峰期中被提

出，計劃建立一個貨幣池，以便各成員國在

外匯短缺的情況下從中借用。AMF的核心理

念與國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 的成立初衷同

出一轍，無外乎匯集資金和使用資金兩項，

其主要區別在於 AMF是一個地區性組織，而

IMF是一個國際性組織。

From a business perspective, this raises the following questions: Would this idea finally fly? What does this proposal mean to member countries? 從營商角度來看，這讓人不禁冒出幾個

問號：這個構想能否成為現實？它對成員

國有何意義？

Back to basics 追根溯源

A review of the roots of the basic ideas driving this proposal would be helpful in assessing whether this

作者/by Emilio T. Antonio Jr.

proposal would finally fly and whether this would have significant implications for member countries. The main issues that this proposal is trying to address are clear: (a) the possibility of severe foreign exchange shortage (or a balance of payments crisis – a perennial problem faced by developing countries); and (b) how such shortfall can be financed quickly in order to avoid the economic damage that could result from the sudden and sharp adjustments in the price of foreign currencies if the shortage is not addressed. 評判該構想能否最終實現，是否會對成

員國產生重大影響，需追根溯源，了解整

件事情的本末原委。該提議要解決的問題

十分清楚明瞭： (a) 嚴重的外匯短缺（或

收支危機）是多年來縈繞在發展中國家心

頭的一大隱憂；及 (b) 如何迅速填補缺口，

避免造成經濟損失，因為倘若聽之任之，

外匯價格很可能爆發劇烈的突變。

These issues have been addressed in the past through basically two approaches: 過去，這些問題主要是透過以下兩個途

徑予以解決：

1. The country could, on its own, build up sufficient reserves of foreign currencies to prepare for such contingencies. Sufficiency is a relative term. This would depend on the country’s appetite for risks. Countries averse to risks would build mountains of reserves while the risk-takers would rather keep less and use the money instead to expand its income generating capability. 1. 各國自行儲備外匯，獨力應對突發

情況。至於多少儲備才算充足，就沒有

一個絕對指標了，需視國家的風險偏好

而定。做派穩妥的國家可能會多儲備一

些，而敢於冒險的國家可能會少儲備一

些，將資金用來另尋創收門路。

2. The other possibility is to join a group of countries, pool their funds together and allow the members to draw from these funds in cases of emergency. The IMF was founded on the basis of this idea. The AMF is a variation of the same concept banking on the strength of regional cooperation. 2. 加入一個國際組織，將各國資金匯

聚在一起，允許成員在緊急情況下從中

提取。IMF 即是因此成立，而 AMF 則是在

區域合作優勢之下該理念的又一變體。

Pros and Cons 利弊權衡

Both approaches have advantages and drawbacks. Self-reliance and self-determination are expected to have some advantages. Generally, self-interest as a guide to policy actions is expected to be a stronger driving force to be more efficient in managing inflows and outflows of foreign currencies to avoid a balance of payments crisis. This expectation carries through in the tasks of assessing how much foreign currencies to keep in reserve and in judging when and how much reserves to use in the face of a balance of payments problems. 兩種方法各有千秋。自立自主有許多好

處。一般而言，切身利益是政策行動的指針，

可以預見，在切身利益的驅使下，對於外

匯流入和流出的管理將會更加有效，從而

防範收支失衡的危險。而在判斷需要多少

外匯來維持儲備，以及何時動用儲備和動

用多少儲備來應對收支失衡問題的時候，

也都會考慮到切身利益。

The ProPosed AsiAn MoneTAry Fund:Will it soon fly? What does this

mean to the member countries?

亞洲貨幣基金構想：何時上路？對成員國有何意義？

Economy


66

Would giving these tasks to an international or regional institution be a better solution? There could be some advantages 將這些難題推給一個國際性或地區性機

構，是否是優選方案呢？其優勢在於：

1. The amount the each country would need to set aside for the purpose would be smaller because it is expected that a balance of payments crisis would not occur simultaneously among member countries. 1. 可減少各個國家為此投入的資金，

因為收支危機一般不會在成員國之間同

步爆發。

2. Some decisions involving the management of the balance of inflows and outflows of foreign currencies may be difficult to sell to domestic constituents. The pressures of an external institution may provide domestic policymakers a convenient excuse to carry out unpopular but important and urgent policies. A devaluation of the currency, for example, is generally an unpopular move but pinning the blame to the requirements of access to the funds at IMF helps the politicians wiggle out of the backlash of such unpopular policies. 2. 某些涉及外匯收支平衡管理的決策

難以令本國民眾信服，但來自外部組織

的壓力可以為國內決策者執行某些不被

擁護但十分緊急重要的政策提供一個順

理成章的託辭。例如貨幣貶值一般會遭

到反對，但如將此歸結為獲得 IMF 資助

的條件，則可能幫助政府官員推卸責任。

But there are also potential disadvantages in giving these tasks to an international or regional body. 然而這種做法亦存在某些缺點。

1. The thought of having access to a pool of funds which can be accessed in cases of emergency could make member countries less careful in managing the balance between the inflows and outflows of foreign currencies. Economists refer to this as a ‘moral hazard problem’. 1. 有了貨幣池作為後盾，成員國在管

理外匯收支平衡方面可能會掉以輕心，

經濟學家將此稱為道德風險問題。

2. Decisions on the magnitude and timing of rescue operations can acquire political colour. Perceptions of the lack of independence of the manager

of the pooled funds can crop up. No wonder the IMF, for example, gets easily demonized as the tool of imperialists and the setting up of an AMF easily gets politicized as a tool by some countries to be the dominant force in the region. 2. 有關救援操作力度及時間的決定難

免蒙上政治色彩，資金池的管理方亦可

能被斥缺乏獨立性。難怪 IMF 一不小心

就被冠以帝國主義者工具的惡名，而 AMF

的成立亦被稱為是某些國家稱霸區內野

心的武器。

3. Judgments on what actions to take to eventually correct the imbalances may likewise differ. The bureaucrats running the international or regional institution claiming expertise based on their broader exposure to similar problems faced by other member countries may encounter opposition from local experts who may claim greater familiarity with the nuances of their domestic conditions. Emotional sparks could easily fly in the discussions and could hamper the search for the best approach to solve the problems that generated the balance of payments crisis. 3. 對於採取哪些措施方可最終解決危

機，可能會存在意見分歧。執掌該國際

性或地區性組織的官員聲稱在其他成員

國多次遇到類似問題，以專家自居；但

國內學者則表示自己更了解本國的特殊

情況，兩邊針鋒相對，相持不下。討論

中難免擦槍走火，感情用事，影響對最

佳解決方案的探索，無法找到產生收支

危機的根源。

the years; and (b) these changes have prompted changing approaches on how to handle them: 就將收支危機交由外部組織處理而言，

IMF 的歷史是一部成功與失敗交織之作。

歷史總是在重複上演兩件事情：(a) 收支

危機產生的原因逐年變化；(b) 這種變化

促使人們改變對策。

1. In the years immediately after World War II, balance of payments crises centred around temporary trade imbalances caused by the volatility of export earnings because most developing countries were exporting agricultural products and other commodities. These products are subject to wide swings in prices and are generally at the mercy of volatile weather conditions. These trade imbalances were temporary in nature, thus the rescue operations need not be premised on economic reforms. 1. 二戰結束後，收支危機主要是因出

口收入起伏引起的暫時性貿易失衡所致，

因為發展中國家以農產品及其他商品出

口為主。這些產品的價格波動較大，靠

天吃飯的性質嚴重。這種貿易失衡是暫

時的，因此救援操作無需以經濟改革為

前提。

2. Eventually, however, it became clear that balance of payments problems can be driven by inappropriate policies. The important roles of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies got highlighted, thus access to the pool of funds managed by the IMF had to be tied up to promises of appropriate

The other possibility is to join a group of countries, pool their funds together and allow the members to draw from these funds in cases of emergency

Solutions in action 實踐探索

The historical records of the IMF are punctuated with episodes that highlight the strengths and weaknesses of passing on the task of dealing with balance of payments crises to an external institution. The records likewise bear out two things: (a) the causes of balance of payments crises have changed through

macroeconomic policies. Conditions were imposed on the tranches drawn from the pool of funds which become tighter as a member country ran more frequently to IMF. In short, 'conditionalities' became a dreaded word for those who wanted to access these funds. 2. 後來大家逐漸意識到政策失當亦會

造成收支危機。財政，貨幣及匯率政策


Economy 67

的重要性日益凸顯，因此獲得 IMF 資金

必須附以適當的宏觀政策為前提條件。

隨著成員國頻繁地向 IMF 伸手，提取資

金的條件變得越加嚴格。總而言之，「限

制條件」成為希望得到資助的國家最討

厭的一個字眼。

3. In the seventies, the ease of access to foreign loans made possible by the need to recycle the petro dollars generated by the first oil crisis eventually led to a balance of payments crisis among the highly indebted countries (HICs) in the eighties. Debt-service burden became the central issue in balance of payment crises. Thus, the IMF was not just providing funds during the subsequent periods. It was, by default, the credit rating agency for private banks that required countries to have the IMF’s seal of good housekeeping before they could act on requests for restructuring of the loans they granted to these countries. The World Bank even got into the act through structural adjustment loans (SALs) that tied the granting of loans to the promise of reforms. 3. 70 年代，因為需要回收源自第一

次石油危機的「油元」，所以獲取外國

貸款變得容易，結果釀成 80 年代高負

債國家（HIC）的收支失衡危機。償債

負擔是這次危機的核心問題，所以後來

IMF 的作用不再只是提供資金而已。那

些私營銀行的信用評級機構要求有關國

家先取得 IMF 的背書，證明該國處於良

好管治之下，這樣銀行才能答應這些國

家的重組貸款的要求。與此同時，世界

銀行的結構性調整貸款（SAL）也把改

革作為了發放貸款的條件。

4. In the nineties, another form of capital flows eventually led to the Asian financial crisis: portfolio investments. The heavy inflows of ‘hot money’ proved favourable to the development of fragile economic structures which eventually collapsed

資本管制，對證券組合投資徵稅遏制其流

動，編寫預警指標追蹤資產泡沫的變化等

眾說紛紜，當然還包括成立 AMF。

One reaction to the crisis that is evident from historical records but has received less attention is the move of many Asian countries to increase their levels of international reserves. In terms of the equivalent number of months of imports these reserves can finance, most Asian countries aimed for and actually built up higher levels of reserves after the Asian financial crisis. This proved to be a sensible move. When ‘hot money’ gets counted as part of the nation’s reserves, prudence requires that the stock of foreign currencies that countries need to set aside increases to deal with emergencies. This is no different from what ordinary banks do. Since deposits can be withdrawn anytime, they have to maintain a prudent level of reserves that could meet unexpected withdrawals. 各國對於此次危機的反應不一，其中一

種有明顯跡象但卻未引起關注的是，不少

亞洲國家紛紛提高了國際儲備水平。從外

匯儲備可以滿足進口之需的月數來看，多

數亞洲國家都在亞洲金融危機後著手加強

儲備，結果儲備水平普遍上升。事實證明，

此乃明智之舉。由於「熱錢」亦被認作國

家儲備，保險起見，這部份外匯儲備不應

動用，需剝離開來以備不測。這與普通銀

行的做法是一個道理—存款可能隨時被提

走，故銀行須持有一定的準備金，以應對

突發提現。

This move has apparently served most Asian countries well. Most of them survived the recent world financial crisis relatively unscathed. True, their export earnings suffered seriously but their respective foreign exchange markets remained calm because they have piled up sufficient reserves to ward off any speculative threats on their currencies. 這種方法顯然對多數亞洲國家而言十

分奏效，它們大多平安渡過了剛剛過去

when the flow of portfolio capital got reversed. The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 was the final result of these developments. The balance of payments crisis once again had dimensions quite different from the past. Consequently, the IMF had to adapt its rescue tools to the new phenomenon. Rescue operations had to be premised on even tighter financial discipline and the development of measures which could deter the formation of speculative bubbles. 4. 90 年代，另一種新的資本流動模式

終於觸發了亞洲金融危機：證券組合投

資。「熱錢」洶湧而至，雖然推動了流入

國經濟的發展，但由於經濟結構脆弱，

在資金大面積抽逃後，該國的經濟將轟

然坍塌。1997 年的亞洲金融危機便是由

此而來。結果，IMF 不得不調整其救援手

段以適應新形勢的需要，當時救援行動

的條件是進一步嚴格財政紀律，並採取

措施防範投機泡沫。

From International to Asian 從國際到亞洲

The proposal for an AMF came at the height of the Asian Financial Crisis. This was the time when the balance of payments problems were the results of the sudden drying up of portfolio investments (more popularly referred to as ‘hot money’) that Asian countries attracted. This proposal came together with other suggestions that were meant to address the problem of volatilities that came as an aftermath. Among them: capital controls, taxes on portfolio investment flows to slow down their movements, and the development of early warning indicators which could detect the development of asset bubbles. AMF 的構想是在亞洲金融危機到達頂峰

時提出的。當時由於證券組合投資（其另

一個通俗的名稱叫「熱錢」）迅速抽離，亞

洲國家普遍爆發收支平衡問題。為了解決

危機之後的市場動盪，各方紛紛建言獻策，

In the years immediately after World War II, balance of payments crises centred around temporary trade imbalances caused by the volatility of export earnings because most developing countries were exporting agricultural products and other commodities

Economy


68

的金融危機，也可算是全身而退。誠然，

這些國家的出口收入的確遭遇重挫，但

其外匯市場卻未見波瀾，因為他們已經

儲備了充足的外匯，能夠應付對本國貨

幣的投機炒作。

Implications on the fate of the AMF:對AMF命運的啟示

What do these developments suggest as regards the AMF proposal?上述變化對 AMF 構想有何意義？

The idea may have its merits. The idea actually amplifies most of the moves suggested at the international level. The AMF seems a natural extension of regional cooperation efforts. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) with a stronger form of monitoring and/or IMF-style surveillance could serve as the beginnings of an AMF. Expectations and suggestions for enhancements of the idea continue to flourish. Among them:此構想有值得肯定之處，它突出體現了

原先提出的許多國際層面的舉措，亦是區

域合作的一種自然延伸。清邁倡議多邊化

(CMIM) 的監管模式更為有力，採用 IMF 式

監督，無疑可以看作是 AMF 的開端。有關

該構想的改進意見及建議層出不窮，以下

列舉一二：

1. A greater share of reserve commitments. The current CMIM involves a commitment of approximately $4.5 billion in reserves for the 6 largest economies (or around 10% of total dollar reserves) and corresponding amounts that can be drawn of about $10-12 billion. As faith in the new system increases, greater reliance may be put on it. Subsequently, an even greater share of reserves committed to such facilities would make it more effective. 1. 提高儲備出資比例 . 根據當前的

CMIM，前六大經濟體需出資大約 45 億美

元作為儲備金（相當於美元儲備總規模

的 10% 左右），可供其提取的金額大約在

100 億到 120 億美元之間。隨著新體系威

望的上升，各國可對 CMIM 的依賴或會加

重。因此，如能提高儲備出資比例，將

會使其發揮更大作用。

2. It has been suggested to couple this with a strengthening of regional monitoring and supervision – a necessary precondition to a successful regional financing arrangement. 2. 同時還要加強地區監管監督力度：這

financial cooperation, it is the opposite. One might think that these moves have reduced the incentive and need for a body such as the AMF (and the IMF too for that matter) but we must keep in mind that regional cooperation takes place in an environment of stability where the parties involved are 'strong' enough. Apparently, such courses of action are a precondition to the formation of a successful and effective regional body. 自保主義看似與區域金融合作背道而馳，

其實不然。有人認為自保舉動將減損人們

對成立 AMF（就此而言亦包括 IMF）的動機

以及需求，但須注意，只有在經濟環境穩定，

各國家底豐厚的情況下區域合作才會應運

而生。顯然，這種處理方式正是組建一個

成功有效地區機構的前提條件。

All these suggest that there could be room for a regional financing facility/arrangement to work in parallel with multilateral alternatives. Nevertheless, the developments thus far show that individual country actions easily outpace those that require international or even just regional cooperation. More than a decade has passed since the idea of the AMF was broached but the idea is still languishing on the drawing boards. In the meantime, individual countries have moved faster to deal with the changing nature of the balance of payments risks that they are likely to face given the increased importance of portfolio capital movements. 綜上所述，我們有必要建立一個與多邊

組織合作的區域融資安排。但從目前來看，

各國的單獨行動似乎比國際合作或者區域

合作更為有效。AMF 的構想提出至今已十

載有餘，但目前仍只是紙上談兵。在此期

間，由於證券投資資本的動向愈發重要，

各國亦紛紛加快步伐，積極應對收支危機

的變化。|AT|

是區域性融資安排獲得成功的先決條件。

3. A broader membership base is suggested to be explored: inclusion of Australia, New Zealand, and India for example is expected to lead to a broader regional cooperation, bigger pool of funds, and broaden the base for governance. 3. 擴大會員基礎：吸收澳洲，紐西蘭，

印度等國家入會，有助於擴大區內合作，

充實貨幣池，拓寬管治基礎。

4. Finally, the most promising path seems to be one where a regional facility would be working in tandem with other multilateral organizations such as the IMF or ADB which could lend to and strengthen the supervision and monitoring role of the facility as well as provide technical assistance. Such parallel operations would also serve to mitigate moral hazard – a link which is vital in the absence of credible monitoring, supervision, and enforcement. Furthermore, the IMF is reinventing itself and ‘pegging to the IMF’ may be done relative to more appropriate facilities such as the Short Term Liquidity Facility rather than Contingent Credit Lines. We should keep in mind that regionalism can supplement multilateralism. 4. 前景最為廣闊的方法是成立一個地區

性機構融通，與 IMF，亞洲發展銀行等多

邊組織合作，以增強和完善該機構的監管

監督職能，獲得技術支持。平行作業有助

於降低道德風險—在缺乏可靠監管，監督

及執行的情況，這種交流就顯得尤為重要。

此外，由於 IMF 本身也在改造之中，「盯

住 IMF」應該有的放矢，比如「短期流動

性貸款」就比「應急信貸額度」更合適。

要知道地區化能夠彌補多邊化的不足。

Though the shift towards self-insurance may seem like a move away from regional

True, their export earnings suffered seriously but their respective foreign exchange markets remained calm because they have piled up sufficient reserves to ward off any speculative threats on their currencies

Documents

APRIL_2010