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Covid-19 Economic Update
April 6, 2020
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
-500-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100
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Job Losses by Industry, March 2020Dentists, Physicians
Temporary Staffing
Clothing & Apparel
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Job losses for March totaled 701,000, far exceeding expectations given the brunt of losses were not included in this report.
• Not surprising, food anddrinking establishments wereresponsible for most of the losses.
• The only sector to gain ameasurable number of jobs was government, largely due to the temporary hiring of Census workers (+18,000).
Food & DrinkingEstablishments
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
-1 1 2 3 4
New Orleans
Orlando
Boston
Nassau/Suffolk Counties, NY
Honolulu
Miami
Las Vegas
San Francisco
Kahului, HI
New York
Moody’s Analytics Top 10 Economic Exposure by Metro Area/Division
Exposure to virus Demographics Trade/travel disruptions
Tourism Finance Commodities
Source: Moody’s Analytics
• Areas are rated by sixfactors: exposure to the virus, demographics, trade/travel disruptions, tourism, finance and commodities.
• Virus exposure and demographics are primarily behind New York City’s top ranking while tourism plays a larger role in Hawaii, Las Vegas and Orlando.
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
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Economic Policy Uncertainty News-Based Index
Source: Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: News-Based Index for the United States retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis April 5, 2020.
• The news component of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on key words in news coverage in ten major newspapers.
• The index, which averages 100, hit its highest level inMarch since the data series began in 1985.
March 2020
Apartment Industry Impacts• Demand continues to be impacted by fear of job losses, decreased income and fear of contracting
COVID-19.• A large construction pipeline for multifamily is a liability as demand pauses. Nearly 90,000 units were
delivered in Q1 2020 due to warm weather.• Vacant apartments are now deep into rent losses on a two-week basis and the current trajectory will
set rents negative for the year before mid-April. • Multifamily rent growth is declining for all property’s classes, most notably for 4- and 5-star properties.• Honolulu, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Orlando have suffered rent losses nearly 1.5% in March 2020.• Multifamily sales volumes reflect stable income properties in uncertain times are unlikely to trade. In
the last three years, sales volume in March ranged between $8-$10 billion; in March 2020 it stood around $2 billion.
• Despite the challenges facing multifamily, stability is still expected. Renters need a place to live and the federal stimulus package is expected to help tide things over in the short-term.
Source: The Coronavirus Pandemic by CoStar Group, April 1, 2020