APRIL 2018 FAST - u01.spsend.comu01.spsend.com/CampResource/5P1LSL72IW4TA430/BIO/text.pdf · FAST FACTS | APRIL 2018 3 The data makes it clear that education or the lack thereof is

APRIL 2018

FAST FACTS

Published by the Centre for Risk Analysis2 Clamart Road, Richmond

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www.irr.org.za/cra/centre-for-risk-analysis/Centre for Risk Analysis

April 2018

The CRA helps business and government leaders plan for a future South Africa and identify policies that will create a more prosperous society. It uses deep-dive data analysis and first hand political and policy information to advise groups with interests in South Africa on the

likely long term economic, social, and political evolution of the country.

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Cover design and Typesetting by InkDesign

Editor-in-ChiefFrans Cronje

EditorThuthukani Ndebele

Head of ResearchThuthukani Ndebele

AuthorsFrans Cronje

Unathi Matwasa

Head of InformationTamara Dimant

FAST FACTS | APRIL 2018 1

ContentsEducation the single greatest obstacle to socio-economic advancement in South Africa��2

Tables and ChartsTable 1: Enrolment by grade at ordinary public and independent schools, 2000 and 2017 ��4

Table 2: Pupils in public and independent schools by province, 2000 and 2017 ��5

Table 3: Repeaters by grade, 2009–15��6

Table 4: Pupils and teachers at public schools by province, 2000 and 2017 ��6

Table 5: People aged 20 and older with no schooling by race, 1995–2016 ��7

Table 6: People aged 15 and older who are numerate by race, 2009 and 2016 ��8

Table 7: People aged 20 and older with grade 12 by race, 1995–2016 ��9

Table 8: People aged 20 and older with a degree and higher by race, 1995–2016 ��9

Table 9: National Senior Certificate examination results (new curriculum), 2008–17 ��10

Table 10: Results for selected subjects (proportions), 2008–16��11

Chart 1: Bachelor's admission pass rate by province, 2017 ��11

Table 11: Ratio of maths literacy to mathematics candidates and passes, 2008–16 ��12

Table 12: Mathematics results by school quintile (actual numbers), 2016��12

Table 13: Mathematics results by school quintile (proportions), 2016 ��13

Table 14: The grade 1 class of 2006 ��13

Table 15: The grade 12 class of 2017 ��14

Chart 2: The grade 12 class of 2017 ��14

Table 16: Public schools and facilities by province, 2016 ��15

Table 17: Higher education participation rates by race, 2002 and 2015 ��15

Table 18: Head-count enrolment at universities by type of university, 1985–2015 ��16

Table 19: First university awards by race and subject (actual numbers): degrees, 1991 and 2015 ��17

Table 20: Employment and unemployment by highest level of education (actual numbers), 2008 and 2017 ��18

Table 21: Employment and unemployment by highest level of education (proportions), 2008 and 2017 ��19

Table 22: Employment by highest level of education, 2017 ��20

Fast StatsLabour Log ��21

Investment Index ��22

Socio-Economic Indicators ��22

Housing Highlights ��23

Inflation Index ��23

Business Barometer ��24

Confidence Count ��24

Economic Barometer ��25

Latest Figures And Forecasts ��26

2 FAST FACTS | APRIL 2018

Education the single greatest obstacle to socio-economic advancement in South Africa

This report seeks to provide a definitive assessment of the quality and output of the

South African education system and how that output has changed over time.

There are some positives:• Pre-school enrolment is up 270,4% since 2000, setting a much better basis for

future school throughput�

• The proportion of people aged 20 or older with no schooling has fallen from

13% in 1995 to 4,8% in 2016�

• The proportion of people aged 20 and older with a degree has increased from

2,9% in 1995 to 4,9% in 2016�

• The proportion of matric candidates receiving a bachelor’s pass has increased from

20,1% in 2008 to 28,7% in 2017 (although serious questions about the quality of

that pass must be asked)�

• Near on 100% of schools now have clean water, and electricity�

• Higher education participation rates (that measure what proportion of 20–24 year

olds are enrolled in higher education) have increased from 15,4% in 2002 to

18,6% in 2015�

• University enrolment numbers are up 289,5% since 1985 and up more than

100% since 1995�

• The ratio of white to black university graduates was 3,7:1 in 1991 and 0,3:1 in 2015�

But ultimately it is the negatives that overwhelm:• Just under half of children who enrol in grade one will make it to grade 12�

• Roughly 20% of grade 9, 10, and 11 pupils are repeaters, suggesting that they have

been poorly prepared in the early grades of the school system�

• Just 28% of people aged 20 or older have completed high school�

• Just 3,1% of black people over the age of 20 have a university degree compared to

13,9% and 18,3% for Indian and white people�

• Just 6,9% of matric candidates will pass maths with a grade of 70% to 100% – a

smaller proportion than was the case in 2008 (remember that once the near 50%

pre-matric drop-out rate is factored in this means that around 3/100 children will

pass maths in matric with such a grade�

• The ratio of maths literacy (a b-grade maths option) to maths candidates in matric

has changed from 0,9:1 in 2008 to 1,5:1 in 2016�

• In the poorest quintile of schools, less than 1/100 matric candidates will receive

a distinction in maths�

• In the richest quintile, that figure is just 9,7%�

• Just one in three schools has a library and one in five a science laboratory�

• The black higher education participation rate is just 15,6%, while that for Indian

and white people (aged 20–24) is 49,3% and 52,8%�

• The unemployment rate for tertiary qualified professionals has increased from

7,7% in 2008 to 13,2% today�

of people aged

20 or olderhave completed

high school

28%Just

100% Near on

of schools now have

clean water and electricity

Just 1 in 3

1 in 5

schools has a

library

a science laboratory

and

University enrolment numbers are up

289,5%since 1985

and up more than

100% since 1995


The data makes it clear that education or the lack thereof is the primary indicator that

determines the living standards trajectory of a young South African� In the second quarter

of 2017, the unemployment rate for a tertiary qualified person was 13,2% – less than half

the national average of 27,7%� Likewise, the labour market absorption rate for tertiary

qualified professionals was 75,6% in 2017 as opposed to just 43,3% for the country as

a whole�

Three things concern us greatly:The first is the poor quality of maths education in South Africa’s schools� A good

maths pass in matric is in all probability the most important marker in determining

whether a young person will enter the middle classes� While maths education is

poor across the board, the quality is worse in the poorest quintile of schools,

leaving no doubt that school education is replicating trends of poverty and

inequality in our society�

The second is the low rate of tertiary education participation for black people� It is

futile to think that significant middle class expansion, let alone demographic

transformation, will take place as long as the higher education participation rate

remains at around 15% for black people� To this we must add the concern that the

expansion in higher education enrolment has come at the cost of quality – an

insight seemingly borne out by a doubling in the unemployment rate for tertiary

qualified professionals over the past decade�

The third is the still very high school drop-out rate� Just over half of children will complete

high school at all� In an economy that is evolving in favour of high-skilled tertiary industries

and in which political pressure and policy are being used to drive up the cost of unskilled

labour, this means that the majority of those children are unlikely to ever find gainful

employment�

When you stack the three concerns, one on top of the other, you cannot escape the

conclusion that the education system represents the single greatest obstacle to socio-

economic advancement in South Africa� It replicates patterns of unemployment, poverty,

and inequality and denies the majority of young people the chance of a middle class life�

The implications speak for themselves�

Frans Cronje

A good maths pass in matric is in all probability the most important marker in determining whether a young person will enter the middle classes


Table 1 shows the number of pupils in each grade of the school system� Note the sharp

increase in pre-school enrolment post-2000 – a very positive indicator� Also note the

apparent decline in the attrition rate between grades 10 and 12�

TABLE 1: ENROLMENT BY GRADE AT ORDINARY PUBLIC AND INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS, 2000 AND 2017

Number of pupils

Grade 2000 2017 Change

Pre-grade R 46 868 22 680 –51,6%

Grade R (Reception) 226 631 839 515 270,4%

Total pre-primary 273 499 862 195 215,2%

1 1 055 397 1 186 829 12,5%

2 1 090 765 1 141 325 4,6%

3 1 178 712 1 124 312 –4,6%

4 1 167 949 1 130 949 –3,2%

5 1 088 836 1 046 370 –3,9%

6 1 009 782 978 130 –3,1%

7 936 454 924 167 –1,3%

Total primary 7 527 895 7 532 082 0,1%

8 1 039 547 971 367 –6,6%

9 922 566 894 113 –3,1%

10 836 962 1 075 925 28,6%

11 724 192 892 784 23,3%

12 549 203 661 116 20,4%

Total secondarya 4 072 470 4 495 305 10,4%

TOTAL 11 873 864b 12 892 273b 8,6%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa Excludes TVET colleges.b The total for 2 000 excludes 29 591 pupils enrolled in special needs schools, adult learning centres, and technical colleges.

The total for 2017 includes 2 691 pupils who were not classified under any grade and were listed as ‘Other'.

2000 2017

Change

Change

Change

Total pre-primary

Total primary

Total secondary

273 499

7 527 895

4 072 470

862 195

7 532 082

4 495 305

215,2%

0,1%

10,4%


Table 2 shows enrolment in public and independent schools by province� Two points are

striking – the first is that independent schools account for just under 5% of school

enrolment� The second is that the rate of increase in independent school enrolment far

exceeds that of public schools� We view this as a key social trend�

TABLE 2: PUPILS IN PUBLIC AND INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS BY PROVINCE, 2000 AND 2017

Province Year Public Independent Proportion of schools independent

Eastern Cape

2000 2 130 390 8 471 0,4%

2017 1 898 723 62 824 3,2%

2000–17 –10,9% 641,6% –

Free State

2000 744 868 19 887 2,6%

2017 671 712 16 637 2,4%

2000–17 –9,8% –16,3% –

Gauteng

2000 1 436 964 117 531 7,6%

2017 2 048 558 278 026 11,9%

2000–17 42,6% 136,6% –

KwaZulu-Natal

2000 2 619 621 43 739 1,6%

2017 2 808 137 69 407 2,4%

2000–17 7,2% 58,7% –

Limpopo

2000 1 830 018 15 247 0,8%

2017 1 706 725 58 830 3,3%

2000–17 –6,7% 285,8% –

Mpumalanga

2000 898 599 13 180 1,4%

2017 1 046 234 28 118 2,6%

2000–17 16,4% 113,3% –

North West

2000 902 256 7 650 0,8%

2017 810 260 19 207 2,3%

2000–17 –10,2% 151,1% –

Northern Cape

2000 196 205 2 445 1,2%

2017 288 515 4 080 1,4%

2000–17 47,0% 66,9% –

Western Cape

2000 888 251 28 133 3,1%

2017 1 063 349 53 223 4,8%

2000–17 19,7% 89,2% –

South Africa

2000 11 647 172 256 283 2,2%

2017 12 342 213 590 352 4,6%

2000–17 6,0% 130,4% –

Source: Department of Basic Education


Table 3 provides the critically important insight that, as children advance through the

school system, levels of grade repetition increase particularly in the latter years of high

school� This indicates inadequate preparation in earlier years�

TABLE 3: REPEATERSa BY GRADE, 2009–15

Grade 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 6,9% 5,8% 6,9% 9,0% 10,7% 9,2% 7,0%

2 7,4% 8,4% 8,3% 9,7% 9,1% 9,0% 8,7%

3 7,1% 8,9% 7,7% 9,5% 9,7% 9,6% 8,9%

4 6,8% 6,2% 8,2% 10,7% 9,2% 7,6% 9,5%

5 6,5% 7,0% 6,0% 8,2% 9,4% 7,8% 6,9%

6 6,5% 6,6% 7,3% 7,2% 7,6% 8,4% 7,4%

7 5,0% 5,3% 6,1% 6,5% 7,9% 6,8% 7,9%

8 8,2% 6,6% 7,6% 10,3% 8,6% 9,8% 12,3%

9 10,7% 11,3% 13,4% 15,0% 16,2% 17,3% 14,8%

10 17,1% 19,0% 21,0% 22,1% 24,5% 21,0% 20,4%

11 16,3% 18,2% 18,1% 19,9% 21,1% 17,7% 15,6%

12 8,3% 10,6% 10,9% 8,9% 8,9% 6,4% 7,6%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa The total number of pupils who are enrolled in the same grade as in the previous year, expressed as a proportion of the total enrolment in

that specified grade.

Table 4 shows that South Africa’s pupil-to-teacher ratio has remained largely consistent

over time� The ratio is comparable to international norms�

TABLE 4: PUPILS AND TEACHERS AT PUBLIC SCHOOLS BY PROVINCE, 2000 AND 2017

Pupils Teachers Pupil-to-teacher ratioa

Province 2000 2017 2000 2017 2000 2017

Eastern Cape 2 130 390 1 742 817 66 361 60 324 32 to 1 29 to 1

Free State 744 868 683 762 22 834 22 601 33 to 1 30 to 1

Gauteng 1 436 964 2 261 935 43 254 71 263 33 to 1 32 to 1

KwaZulu-Natal 2 619 621 2 818 213 71 748 90 561 37 to 1 31 to 1

Limpopo 1 830 018 1 717 779 54 456 50 825 34 to 1 34 to 1

Mpumalanga 898 599 1 076 554 26 080 33 294 35 to 1 32 to 1

North West 902 256 807 263 29 516 27 054 31 to 1 30 to 1

Northern Cape 196 205 290 327 6 399 10 091 31 to 1 29 to 1

Western Cape 888 251 1 091 482 27 714 33 143 32 to 1 33 to 1

South Africa 11 647 172 12 490 132 348 362 386 156 33 to 1 32 to 1

Source: Department of Basic Educationa IRR calculations.


Tables 5, 6, 7, and 8 show a marked improvement in South Africa’s educational profile since

1995� However, considering the changed structure of GDP and employment and the rising

costs of labour (consult CRA analysts for details), it is worrying that in 2016 just 4,9% of

people aged 20 or older possessed a degree -level qualification or higher�

Just 4,9% of people aged 20 or older possessed a degree-level qualification or higher

2016

TABLE 5: PEOPLE AGED 20 AND OLDER WITH NO SCHOOLING BY RACE, 1995–2016

Race People aged 20+ 1995 2002 2010 2016 Change 1995–2016

Black

Number with no schooling 2 640 000 2 812 000 1 913 000 1 570 000 –1 070 000

Total aged 20+ 15 676 000 19 783 000 22 076 000 26 988 000 11 312 000

Proportion with no schooling 16,8% 14,2% 8,7% 5,8% –

Coloured

Number with no schooling 182 000 171 000 88 000 84 000 –98 000

Total aged 20+ 2 079 000 2 332 000 2 807 000 3 180 000 1 101 000


Indian/Asian

Number with no schooling 34 000 27 000 16 000 4 000 –30 000

Total aged 20+ 644 000 743 000 900 000 993 000 349 000


White

Number with no schooling 8 000 5 000 10 000 16 000 8 000

Total aged 20+ 3 700 000 3 069 000 3 338 000 3 452 000 –248 000


Totala

Number with no schooling 2 864 000 3 016 000 2 026 000 1 674 000 –1 190 000

Total aged 20+ 22 100 000 25 954 000 29 121 000 34 613 000 12 513 000


Source: Statistics South Africaa Totals should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding/the inclusion of unspecified values.


TABLE 6: PEOPLE AGED 15 AND OLDER WHO ARE NUMERATEa BY RACE, 2009 AND 2016

Number

Numerate Innumerateb

Race 2009 2016 2009 2016

Black 24 332 000 30 273 000 1 719 000 987 000

Coloured 3 064 000 3 553 000 117 000 77 000

Indian/Asian 976 000 1 091 000 15 000 –c

White 3 668 000 3 736 000 –c 9 000

Totalef 32 034 000 38 651 000 1 857 000 1 076 000

Proportion

Numerated Innumerated

Race 2009 2016 2009 2016

Black 93,4% 96,8% 6,6% 3,2%

Coloured 96,3% 97,9% 3,7% 2,1%

Indian/Asian 98,5% 100,0% 1,5% 0,0%c

White 100,0% 99,8% 0,0%c 0,2%

Totale 94,5% 97,3% 5,5% 2,7%

Source: Statistics South Africaa Stats SA defines a person as numerate if they are capable of working out how much change they should receive when

making a purchase.b People who have some, a lot of difficulty, or are unable to perform basic numeracy activities.c Figures too small to provide reliable estimates.d IRR calculations.e Includes other/unspecified population groups.f Actual numbers may not add up vertically, owing to rounding.

NUMERATE

Black Black

Coloured Coloured

Indian/Asian

Indian/Asian

White White

2009 20092016 2016

93,4%

96,3%

98,5%

100%

3,7%

1,5%

0,0%

6,6%96,8%

97,9%

100%

99,8%

2,1%

0,0%

0,2%

3,2%

INNUMERATE


TABLE 7: PEOPLE AGED 20 AND OLDER WITH GRADE 12a BY RACE, 1995–2016


Black

Number with grade 12 2 110 000 3 398 000 5 024 000 7 013 000 4 903 000

Total aged 20+ 15 676 000 19 783 000 22 076 000 26 988 000 11 312 000

Proportion with grade 12 13,5% 17,2% 22,8% 26,0% –

Coloured

Number with grade 12 268 000 404 000 745 000 903 000 635 000

Total aged 20+ 2 079 000 2 332 000 2 807 000 3 180 000 1 101 000


Indian/Asian

Number with grade 12 207 000 246 000 362 000 417 000 210 000

Total aged 20+ 644 000 743 000 900 000 993 000 349 000


White

Number with grade 12 1 545 000 1 228 000 1 472 000 1 365 000 –180 000

Total aged 20+ 3 700 000 3 069 000 3 338 000 3 452 000 –248 000


Totalb

Number with grade 12 4 131 000 5 286 000 7 603 000 9 702 000 –1 190 000

Total aged 20+ 22 100 000 25 954 000 29 121 000 34 613 000 12 513 000


Source: Statistics South Africaa As their highest level of education. Figures include those who have completed the equivalent of grade 12 at TVETs.b Totals should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding/the inclusion of unspecified values.

TABLE 8: PEOPLE AGED 20 AND OLDER WITH A DEGREE AND HIGHER BY RACE, 1995–2016


Black

Number with a degree and higher 188 000 330 000 441 000 837 000 649 000

Total aged 20+ 15 676 000 19 783 000 22 076 000 26 988 000 11 312 000

Proportion with a degree and higher 1,2% 1,7% 2,0% 3,1% –

Coloured


Total aged 20+ 2 079 000 2 332 000 2 807 000 3 180 000 1 101 000


Indian/ Asian


Total aged 20+ 644 000 743 000 900 000 993 000 349 000


White


Total aged 20+ 3 700 000 3 069 000 3 338 000 3 452 000 –248 000


Totala

Number with a degree and higher 649 000 956 000 1 186 000 1 704 000 –1 190 000

Total aged 20+ 22 100 000 25 954 000 29 121 000 34 613 000 12 513 000


Source: Statistics South Africaa Totals should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding/the inclusion of unspecified values.


Table 9 shows that the number of candidates writing matric has increased since

2008 – the number achieving a bachelor’s pass having increased by 43,2%� This does not

necessarily reflect an increase in the quality of the school-leaving class, and has undoubtedly

contributed to the burden on universities� Note also that in 2017, despite the increase

over time, just 28,7% of the school-leaving class achieved this level of pass�

The number of candidates

writing matric has increased since

2008

The number achieving a

bachelor’s pass

has increased by

43,2%

TABLE 9: NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION RESULTS (NEW CURRICULUM), 2008–17

Pass Fail Higher Certificate admission Diploma admission Bachelor's admission

Year Candidates Number Proportion Number Number Proportion Number Proportion Number Proportion

2008 533 561 334 744 62,7% 199 817 102 032 19,1% 124 258 23,3% 107 274 20,1%

2009 552 073 334 718 60,6% 217 355 93 356 17,0% 131 035 23,8% 109 697 19,9%

2010 537 543 364 513 67,8% 171 471 91 241 17,1% 146 224 27,2% 126 371 23,5%

2011 496 090 348 114 70,2% 147 976 85 296 17,2% 141 584 28,5% 120 767 24,3%

2012 511 152 377 829 73,9% 133 323 88 604 17,3% 152 881 29,9% 136 047 26,6%

2013 562 112 439 779 78,2% 122 333 94 556 16,8% 173 292 30,8% 171 755 30,6%

2014 532 860 403 874 75,8% 128 986 86 022 16,1% 166 689 31,3% 150 752 28,3%

2015 644 536 455 825 70,7% 188 711 105 770 16,4% 183 720 28,5% 166 263 25,8%

2016 610 178 442 672 72,5% 167 506 100 486 16,5% 179 619 29,4% 162 374 26,6%

2017 534 484 401 307 75,1% 133 177 86 265 16,1% 161 333 30,2% 153 610 28,7%

2008–17 0,2% 19,9% 19,8% –33,4% –15,5% –15,7% 29,8% 29,6% 43,2% 42,8%

Source: Department of Basic Education a In order to be granted an NSC, a pupil needs to achieve 40% in three subjects, one of which must be their home language, and achieve 30% in three additional

subjects. Pass figures include higher certificate, diploma and bachelor's passes.b This allows a person to study for a higher certificate. The minimum admission requirement is an NSC with a minimum of 30% in the language of learning

and teaching.c This allows a person to study for a diploma. The minimum requirement is an NSC with a minimum of 30% in the language of learning and teaching and 40%

or more in four other subjects.d Or university entrance pass, which allows a person to study for a bachelor's degree. The minimum requirement is an NSC with a minimum of 30% in the

language of learning and teaching and 50% or more in four or more subjects.


Chart 1 shows that bachelor's pass rates fluctuate considerably between provinces – and

function in many respects of poorer quality education in more rural provinces�

Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Western Cape South Africa0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%CHART 1: BACHELOR'S ADMISSION PASS RATE BY PROVINCE, 2017

Table 10 concerns us a great deal� It shows that the number of children who wrote both

maths and physical science in matric has declined over the better part of a decade� The

proportion of candidates passing maths with a grade of 70% of higher has also declined

(while it increased for science)� Passing maths in matric remains a key marker of a person’s

likelihood of living a middle class life�

TABLE 10: RESULTS FOR SELECTED SUBJECTS (PROPORTIONS)a, 2008–16

Subject Year Wrote 0–29% 30–49% 50–69% 70–100%

Mathematics

2008 300 008 54,6% 24,6% 12,5% 8,3%

2009 290 630 53,9% 27,8% 12,0% 6,2%

2010 263 034 51,4% 29,5% 12,3% 6,8%

2011 224 635 52,7% 28,8% 12,6% 5,9%

2012 225 874 46,0% 31,3% 15,6% 7,0%

2013 241 509 40,9% 32,9% 17,9% 8,2%

2014 225 458 46,5% 31,1% 15,0% 7,3%

2015 263 903 50,9% 28,8% 13,7% 6,6%

2016 265 810 48,8% 29,9% 14,4% 6,9%

Physical science

2008 217 300 45,1% 39,9% 11,6% 3,4%

2009 221 103 63,1% 26,8% 8,2% 1,9%

2010 205 364 50,5% 31,0% 12,3% 6,2%

2011 180 585 44,7% 34,8% 13,9% 6,7%

2012 179 201 38,6% 37,0% 16,7% 7,6%

2013 184 383 32,6% 41,9% 18,1% 7,4%

2014 167 997 38,5% 39,0% 15,3% 7,1%

2015 193 189 41,4% 36,6% 15,1% 6,8%

2016 192 618 38,0% 37,3% 16,6% 8,1%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa IRR calculations.


In Table 11 we see that the ratio of maths literacy to maths pupils has changed over time

in favour of the former� This indicates a reduction in standards of maths education�

TABLE 11: RATIO OF MATHS LITERACY TO MATHEMATICS CANDIDATES AND PASSES, 2008–16

Year Candidates Achieved 40% or above Achieved 60% or above

2008 0,9 to 1 1,6 to 1 1,5 to 1

2009 1,0 to 1 1,7 to 1 1,5 to 1

2010 1,1 to 1 2,2 to 1 2,0 to 1

2011 1,2 to 1 2,6 to 1 2,4 to 1

2012 1,3 to 1 2,2 to 1 1,7 to 1

2013 1,3 to 1 2,1 to 1 1,4 to 1

2014 1,4 to 1 2,3 to 1 1,8 to 1

2015 1,5 to 1 2,0 to 1 1,5 to 1

2016 1,5 to 1 2,0 to 1 1,3 to 1

Source: IRR calculations based on data from the Department of Basic Education

Tables 12 and 13 rank schools by living standards quintiles� Less than 1% of children who

write maths in the poorest quintile of schools will pass with a distinction� In quintile five

schools, that figure is below 10%� After careful consideration, we have to state that this

and other data we have tracked over time reflects a complete failure to improve both the

access to and the quality of mathematics education in the country� This is despite the

policy efforts of government and the funding efforts of corporate social investors�

TABLE 12: MATHEMATICS RESULTS BY SCHOOL QUINTILEa (ACTUAL NUMBERS), 2016

Rank 0–19,9% 20–39,9% 40–59,9% 60–79,9% 80–100% Totala

Quintile 1 24 699 22 920 9 934 2 926 525 61 018

Quintile 2 21 135 23 092 10 270 3 267 753 58 527

Quintile 3 21 167 22 647 10 423 3 776 909 58 933

Quintile 4 8 121 11 226 7 117 3 229 924 30 621

Quintile 5 3 591 11 843 14 471 10 345 4 328 44 590

Quintile 99b 2 286 3 958 3 346 1 898 631 12 121

Total 80 999 95 686 55 561 25 441 8 070 265 810

Source: Department of Basic Educationa The quintile ranking system is a poverty index used by the DBE for funding purposes (primarily school subsidies). The poorest schools fall

under quintile 1 and the most well-off are in quintile 5. For example, there were 24 699 pupils in quintile 1 schools who scored between 0 and 19,9% in mathematics and 3 591 from quintile 5 schools who obtained similar results. There were 525 quintile 1 pupils who achieved between 80 and 100% and 4 328 (eight times as many) quintile 5 pupils scored similarly.

b Schools not captured or whose ranking is unknown. Includes independent and special schools, which are not ranked.

1%Less than

of children who write maths in the

poorest quintileof schools will pass with a distinction


TABLE 13: MATHEMATICS RESULTS BY SCHOOL QUINTILEa (PROPORTIONS), 2016

Rank 0–19,9% 20–39,9% 40–59,9% 60–79,9% 80–100% Totala

Quintile 1 40,5% 37,6% 16,3% 4,8% 0,9% 100,0%

Quintile 2 36,1% 39,5% 17,5% 5,6% 1,3% 100,0%

Quintile 3 35,9% 38,4% 17,7% 6,4% 1,5% 100,0%

Quintile 4 26,5% 36,7% 23,2% 10,5% 3,0% 100,0%

Quintile 5 8,1% 26,6% 32,5% 23,2% 9,7% 100,0%

Quintile 99b 18,9% 32,7% 27,6% 15,7% 5,2% 100,0%

Total 30,5% 36,0% 20,9% 9,6% 3,0% 100,0%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa The table shows, for example, that 40,5% of pupils in quintile 1 scored between 0 and 19,9% in mathematics and 8,1% from quintile 5

schools obtained similar results. On the other hand, only 0,9% of quintile 1 pupils achieved between 80 and 100% and 9,7% of quintile 5 pupils scored similarly.

Table 14 shows the progress made by a child who enrolled in grade one in 2006 through

the school system and into the tertiary education system� Considering the needs of the

economy, we would be comfortable in judging that less than half of children are properly

prepared for a life of independence and employment, and that of all the impediments to

socio-economic advancement, the education system is now one the most serious�

TABLE 14: THE GRADE 1 CLASS OF 2006

Class progress Number Proportion

Grade 1 in 2006 1 185 198 100,0%

Grade 10 in 2015 1 112 604 93,9%

Grade 11 in 2016 901 697 76,1%

Grade 12 in 2017 661 116 55,8%

NSC full-time candidates in 2017 534 484 45,1%

NSC passes in 2017 401 307 33,9%

Bachelor's passes in 2017 153 610 13,0%

Source: Department of Basic Education


Table 15 and Chart 2 show that, of 534 484 pupils who sat to write their 2017 matric

exams, only 153 610 (28,7%) passed well enough to study for a bachelor’s degree at

university� Some 133 177 (24,9%) candidates failed their matric exams�

TABLE 15: THE GRADE 12 CLASS OF 2017

Achievement Number Proportiona

Higher certificate admission 86 265 16,1%

Diploma admission 161 333 30,2%

Bachelor’s admission 153 610 28,7%

NSCb/Endorsed Certificatec 227 0,0%

Passed 401 307 75,1%

Failed 133 177 24,9%

Totald 534 484 100,0%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa IRR calculations.b Refers to candidates who obtained an NSC but did not satisfy the minimum requirements to study for a higher certificate,

diploma, or bachelor's degree. c Those who qualified for the Endorsed Certificate – this is for candidates who cannot, despite concessions granted, meet the

stipulated NSC requirements (endorsed NSC candidates only need to offer five subjects, with a minimum pass of 30% in those five subjects).

d Full-time candidates only.

Number of candidates Pass Fail Higher certificate admission

Diploma admission Bachelor's admission

600 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

0

CHART 2: THE GRADE 12 CLASS OF 2017


Despite adequate financing, as Table 16 shows, there is a dire shortage of infrastructure

across all schools (such as laboratories or libraries) that are necessary for a child in those

schools to receive an excellent education� We regard the data as reflecting a mis-

prioritisation of resources�

TABLE 16: PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND FACILITIES BY PROVINCE, 2016

Province With water With electricity With laboratory With computer facility With library

Eastern Cape 99,0% 96,7% 5,7% 10,8% 8,5%

Free State 97,8% 97,4% 26,7% 35,5% 35,0%

Gauteng 100,0% 100,0% 33,3% 80,3% 63,3%

KwaZulu-Natal 98,4% 94,1% 11,4% 33,3% 24,2%

Limpopo 100,0% 100,0% 6,0% 15,0% 6,5%

Mpumalanga 100,0% 99,2% 12,3% 10,2% 19,1%

North West 100,0% 99,8% 19,1% 43,2% 23,2%

Northern Cape 100,0% 100,0% 16,9% 54,9% 27,9%

Western Cape 100,0% 100,0% 33,2% 59,3% 55,0%

South Africa 99,3% 97,6% 18,3% 41,4% 29,2%

Source: Department of Basic Educationa Figures do not add up horizontally owing to the fact that schools may have a combination of different water sources.

Table 17 shows an overall increase in levels of higher education participation since 2002�

The white and Indian figures are far ahead of the South African average, although the white

figure has declined markedly�

TABLE 17: HIGHER EDUCATION PARTICIPATION RATESa BY RACE, 2002 AND 2015

Race 20–24 year olds in the country Students enrolled in higher education Participation rate

2002 2015 2002 2015 2002 2015

Black 3 594 000 4 461 515 399 915 696 320 11,1% 15,6%

Coloured 358 000 426 013 38 329 62 186 10,7% 14,6%

Indian/Asian 96 000 108 304 47 706 53 378 49,7% 49,3%

White 283 000 306 415 179 380 161 739 63,4% 52,8%

Totalb 4 333 000 5 302 246 667 182 985 212 15,4% 18,6%

Source: Statistics South Africaa The proportion of people aged between 20 and 24 who are enrolled in public universities.b Includes unspecified population groups.


Table 18 shows the sharp increase (of nearly 300%) in levels of university enrolment

since 1985� This continues to place great strain on infrastructure which has not been

expanded at a similar rate�

TABLE 18: HEAD-COUNT ENROLMENTa AT UNIVERSITIES BY TYPE OF UNIVERSITY, 1985–2015

Year Universities Universities of technology Total enrolment Contact studentsb Distance

studentsc

1985 211 756 59 118 270 874 N/A N/A

1986 233 625 43 490 277 115 221 113 56 002

1990 285 986 92 721 378 707 N/A N/A

1995 385 221 190 191 575 412 453 065 122 347

2000 380 168 199 089 579 257 455 107 124 150

2005 563 199 171 874 735 073 593 986 141 087

2010 739 368 153 568 892 936 545 766 346 828

2011 785 988 152 212 938 200 556 694 381 130

2012 798 551 159 822 953 373 566 239 387 133

2013 824 692 159 006 983 698 581 048 402 556

2014 807 663 161 491 969 154 596 824 372 142

2015 824 880 160 332 985 212 605 480 379 732

1985–2015 289,5% 171,2% 263,7% 173,8%d 578,1%d

Source: Department of Higher Education and Traininga Refers to the number of students enrolled at an institution as opposed to enrolment figures, which refer to the number of students enrolled

in different courses.b Refers to those whose courses involve personal interaction with lecturers or supervisors, through lectures, tutorials, seminars, practicals,

supervision, or other forms of required work, which occur at the institution's premises or at a site of delivery.c Refers to those whose courses do not involve personal interaction with teachers or supervisors, and whose studies are undertaken remotely

through the use of correspondence, telematics, or the Internet.d Change is calculated from 1986 to 2015.N/A – Not available.

As ever, the reality in South Africa forces analysts to consider a very broad range of trends

speaking to considerable societal progress and failure at the same time� Table 19 shows

the extent to which South African society has progressed� In 1991, for example, there were

over 40 white engineering graduates for every black graduate� Now, the number of black

graduates is twice as high as that of whites, even though the number of whites getting such

degrees has itself increased by over 35%�

In 1991there were over

white engineering graduates for every

black graduate

40


TABL

E 19

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ST U

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ACE

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201

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ack

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ured

Indi

an/A

sian

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teTo

tal

Ratio

of w

hite

to b

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1991

2015

1991

2015

1991

2015

1991

2015

1991

2015

1991

2015

Agric

ultu

re a

nd re

late

d sc

ienc

es60

2 06

51

621

2961

953

668

12

693

10,3

to 1

0,3

to 1

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itect

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and

envi

ronm

enta

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897

57

9315

9464

342

867

31

607

80,4

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Busin

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com

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ce a

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anag

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t30

324

895

208

2 13

231

42

231

5 95

26

119

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735

691

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mun

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154

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195

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194

276

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Tables 20 and 21 suggest a strong correlation between level of tertiary education and

employment� Having a tertiary education roughly halves a person’s likelihood of being

unemployed� This reflects the changing structure of South Africa’s economy and the

declining importance over time of the primary and secondary economic sectors�

TABLE 20: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT BY HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION (ACTUAL NUMBERS), 2008 AND 2017

2nd quarter 2008b

Level of educationa Employed Unemployed Total economically active

No schooling 582 000 112 000 694 000

Less than primary school completed 1 465 000 399 000 1 864 000

Completed primary school 743 000 235 000 978 000

Less than secondary school completed 4 521 000 1 879 000 6 400 000

Secondary completed 3 928 000 1 261 000 5 189 000

Tertiary 2 313 000 192 000 2 505 000

Other 177 000 37 000 214 000

Total 13 729 000 4 114 000 17 843 000

2nd quarter 2017b

Level of educationa Employed Unemployed Total economically active

No schooling 341 000 72 000 413 000

Less than primary school completed 1 063 000 361 000 1 424 000

Completed primary school 592 000 278 000 870 000

Less than secondary school completed 5 333 000 2 901 000 8 234 000

Secondary completed 5 200 000 2 014 000 7 214 000

Tertiary 3 388 000 513 000 3 901 000

Other 183 000 39 000 222 000

Total 16 100 000 6 177 000 22 277 000

Source: Statistics South Africaa Highest level of education of the employed and unemployed.b Totals may not add up vertically, owing to rounding.


TABLE 21: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT BY HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION (PROPORTIONSa), 2008 AND 2017

2nd quarter 2008b

Level of educationa Employed Unemployed Total econonomically active

No schooling 83,9% 16,1% 100,0%

Less than primary school completed 78,6% 21,4% 100,0%

Completed primary school 76,0% 24,0% 100,0%

Less than secondary school completed 70,6% 29,4% 100,0%

Secondary completed 75,7% 24,3% 100,0%

Tertiary 92,3% 7,7% 100,0%

Other 82,7% 17,3% 100,0%

Total 76,9% 23,1% 100,0%

2nd quarter 2017b

Level of educationa Employed Unemployed Total econonomically active

No schooling 82,6% 17,4% 100,0%

Less than primary school completed 74,6% 25,4% 100,0%

Completed primary school 68,0% 32,0% 100,0%

Less than secondary school completed 64,8% 35,2% 100,0%

Secondary completed 72,1% 27,9% 100,0%

Tertiary 86,8% 13,2% 100,0%

Other 82,4% 17,6% 100,0%

Total 72,3% 27,7% 100,0%

a IRR calculations. In 2017, for example, 82,6% of all economically active people with no schooling were employed and 17,4% of such people were unemployed.

Employed Unemployed

No schooling

2nd quarter 2017

Less than primary school completed

Completed primary school

82,6%

74,6%

68,0%

64,8%

72,1%

86,8%

82,4%

17,4%

25,4%

32,0%

35,2%

27,9%

13,2%

17,6%

Less than secondary school completed

Secondary completed

Tertiary

Other


Table 22 starkly reflects the same trend via the labour market absorption rate�

TABLE 22: EMPLOYMENT BY HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION, 2017

Level of education Number employed Proportiona of total Absorption ratea by highest level of education

No schooling 341 000 2,1% 32,4%

Less than primary completed 1 063 000 6,6% 36,9%

Primary completed 592 000 3,7% 32,0%

Secondary not completed 5 333 000 33,1% 32,8%

Secondary completed 5 200 000 32,3% 50,3%

Tertiary 3 388 000 21,0% 75,6%

Other 183 000 1,1% 49,1%

Total 16 100 000 100,0% 43,3%

Source: Statistics South Africaa IRR calculations. The proportion column refers to the proportion of the total number of people employed who are in each level of education

category. The absorption rate refers to the proportion of people in each category who are employed. For example, 2,1% of all employed people have no schooling and 32,4% of all people with no schooling are employed.

Number employed

Proportion of total

32,4%No schooling 341 000 2,1%

36,9%Less than primary completed 1 063 000 6,6%

32,0%Primary completed 592 000 3,7%

32,8%5 333 000 33,1%Secondary not completed

50,3%5 200 000 32,3%Secondary completed

75,6%3 388 000 21,0%Tertiary

49,1%183 000 1,1%Other

Absorption rate by highest level of education


FAST STATS

LABOUR LOGLabour participation rate 4Q 2017 (supply) 58,8% 4Q 2016: 59,2% Stats SA/QLFS

Labour absorption rate 4Q 2017 (demand) 43,1% 4Q 2016: 43,5% Stats SA/QLFS

Public sector employment 3Q 2017 down 0,6% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Private sector employment 3Q 2017 down 0,3% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Change in labour force up 202 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

Change in unemployment up 99 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

Total employment 4Q 2017 16 171 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

Change in total employment up 102 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– agriculture down 70 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– mining down 10 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– manufacturing up 63 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– utilities up 18 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– construction down 92 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– trade up 18 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– transport up 40 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– finance up 44 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– community and social services (including government) up 119 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

– private households down 29 000 4Q 2017 vs 4Q 2016 Stats SA/QLFS

Employees in non-farm enterprises up 0,2% Dec 2017 vs Dec 2016 Stats SA/QES

Number of such employees up 18 000 to 9 797 000 Stats SA/QES

Net employment (hiring intentions) outlook 2Q 2018 +9% 2Q 2017: +7% Manpower

Unemployment rate 4Q 2017 (official) 26,7% 4Q 2016: 26,5% Number: 5,9 million

Unemployment rate 4Q 2017 (expanded including discouraged) 36,3% 4Q 2016: 35,6% Number: 9,2 million

Nominal wages per worker 3Q 2017 up 6,8% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Real wages per worker 3Q 2017 down 0,3% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker public 3Q 2017 up 13,6% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker private 3Q 2017 up 4,7% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Real remuneration/worker public 3Q 2017 up 6,0% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Real remuneration/worker private 3Q 2017 down 2,3% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Labour productivity 3Q 2017 up 1,6% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Nominal unit labour costs 3Q 2017 up 5,1% compared to 3Q 2016 SARB

Compensation of employees to GDP (at factor cost) 2017 54,3% 2016: 54,3% SARB

Average monthly earnings (Nov 2017) (at current prices) R 20 004 Nov 2016: R18 723 Stats SA/QES

Average wage settlements (Jan–Mar) 7,4% Jan–Mar 2017: 7,6% Andrew Levy

Number of strike mandays (Jan–Mar) 122 000 Jan–Mar 2017: 85 000 Andrew Levy


FAST STATS

INVESTMENT INDEXReal gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 2017 R616,0bn up 0,4% compared to 2016

GFCF ÷ GDP 2017 18,7% 2016: 19,5% (Target 30%)

Gross domestic saving ÷ GDP 2017 16,1% 2016: 16,6%

Real GFCF by general government down 0,7% 2017 vs 2016

– by public corporations down 0,3% 2017 vs 2016

– by private business up 1,2% 2017 vs 2016

Real GFCF in residential buildings up 1,5% 2017 vs 2016

– in non-residential buildings down 6,4% 2017 vs 2016

– in construction works down 1,9% 2017 vs 2016

– in transport equipment down 1,2% 2017 vs 2016

– in machinery and equipment up 5,1% 2017 vs 2016

Foreign investment into SA 2017

– direct R17,7bn 2016: R32,9bn

– portfolio R278,8bn 2016: R139,9bn

– other R60,7bn 2016: -R3,7bn

SA investment abroad 2017

– direct -R98,1bn 2016: -R65,8bn

– portfolio -R58,5bn 2016: R100,7bn

– other -R69,7bn 2016: -R18,5bn

Balance on financial account 2017 R101,1bn 2016: R131,4bn

Equities net purchases/sales by foreigners (Jan–Mar) R24,3bn Jan–Mar 2017: -R43,0bn

Bonds net purchases/sales by foreigners (Jan–Mar) R20,4bn Jan–Mar 2017: R19,2bn

SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORSTotal population 2017 56,52m 2016: 55,91m Stats SA

GDP per head 2017 R 83 393 current prices SARB

Real growth in GDP per head 2017 –0,1% 2016: –0,8% SARB

Household saving to disposable income 2017 0,3% 2016: –0,2% SARB

Household debt to disposable income 2017 71,9% 2016: 74,1% SARB

Household debt-service cost to disposable income 2017 9,3% 2016: 9,6% SARB


FAST STATS

HOUSING HIGHLIGHTS House Price Index (nominal) (Mar) up 1,0% compared to Mar 2017 FNB

House Price Index (nominal) (Mar) up 5,0% compared to Mar 2017 Standard Bank

House price Inflation (national) (Feb) 4,1% Feb 2017: 3,7% Lightstone

Mortgage advances (Feb) up 4,7% compared to Feb 2017 SARB

Number of houses built smaller than 81m2 (Jan–Feb) down 24,8% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

House price trends regional (nominal) (average)

– Johannesburg 4Q 2017 up 3,5% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– Cape Town 4Q 2017 up 9,4% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– Ekurhuleni 4Q 2017 up 1,8% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– eThekwini 4Q 2017 up 5,9% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– Tshwane 4Q 2017 up 1,3% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– Nelson Mandela Bay 4Q 2017 down 0,7% compared to 4Q 2016 FNB

– Johannesburg (R960 000) 3Q 2017 up 6,0% compared to 3Q 2016 Standard Bank

– Cape Town (R1 250 000) 3Q 2017 up 13,9% compared to 3Q 2016 Standard Bank

– Ekurhuleni (R730 000) 3Q 2017 up 6,9% compared to 3Q 2016 Standard Bank

– eThekwini (R840 000) 3Q 2017 up 6,3% compared to 3Q 2016 Standard Bank

– Tshwane (R889 000) 3Q 2017 up 8,8% compared to 3Q 2016 Standard Bank

INFLATION INDEX Headline inflation rate (Mar 2018 vs Mar 2017) 3,8% same period previous year: 6,1%

– Housing and utilities (24,62%)* 4,6% 5,7%

– Transport (14,28%)* 2,8% 7,7%

– Food and non-alcoholic beverages (17,24%)* 3,5% 8,7%

– Insurance and other services (15,05%)* 6,2% 7,5%

– Household contents and services (4,35%)* 2,0% 3,2%

– Alcohol and tobacco (5,82%)* 5,2% 3,2%

– Recreation and culture (5,16%)* 0,3% 3,7%

– Clothing and footwear (3,83%)* 1,5% 4,5%

– Communication (2,63%)* –1,0% –0,9%

– Restaurants and hotels (3,09%)* 2,8% 6,1%

– Education (2,53)* 6,7% 7,0%

– Health (1,40%)* 5,1% 6,2%

Core inflation** 4,1% 4,9%

Rise in administered (non-market) prices 3,7% 8,4%

Inflation without administered prices 3,8% 5,7%

CPI for rural areas 2,6% 6,0%

Producer price rise (PPI) (Feb 2018 vs Feb 2017) 4,2% 5,6%

*Weighting (Dec 2016=100). **Core inflation = CPI less food, non-alcoholic drinks, petrol, and energy.


FAST STATS

BUSINESS BAROMETER Leading business indicator (Feb) up 3,6% on same period in 2017 SARB

Use of manufacturing production capacity 2017 81,4% 2016: 81,9% Stats SA

Manufacturing production (volume) (Jan–Feb) up 1,4% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Total vehicles sold (Jan–Mar): 141 272 down 4,1% on same period in 2017 NAAMSA

Vehicles exported (Jan–Mar): 69 096 down 2,2% on same period in 2017 NAAMSA

Tractors sold (Jan–Mar): 1 872 up 12,2% on same period in 2017 SAAMA

Electricity consumed (Jan–Feb) up 2,2% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Total building plans passed (value) (Jan–Feb) up 4,0% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Total buildings completed (value) (Jan–Feb) no change on same period in 2017 Stats SA

All building costs (average) 1Q 2018 up 7,2% on same period in 2017 BER

Mining production (volume) (Jan–Feb) up 2,9% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Retail sales (value) (Jan–Feb) up 4,1% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Wholesales (value) (Jan–Feb) down 0,9% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Current adspend (Jan–Feb): R5,1bn up 3,5% on same period in 2017 A C Nielsen

Number of liquidations (Jan–Mar): 465 up 9,4% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Judgements for debt (Jan–Feb): 33 353 down 0,9% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

Tourism accommodation occupancy rate (Feb) 50,0% Feb 2017: 52,4% Stats SA

Overseas tourists (Jan): 244 657 down 0,2% on same period in 2017 Stats SA

BETTER: 9 NO CHANGE: 1 WORSE: 8

CONFIDENCE COUNTRMB/BER business confidence index 1Q 2018 up 11 points to 45 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

Sacci business confidence index (Mar) down 1,3 points to 97,6 since Feb 2018 (2015 = 100)

Merchantec CEO confidence index 1Q 2018 up 21,6 points to 60,0 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

BER/Absa manufacturing confidence index 1Q 2018 up 13 points to 37 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

FNB/BER building confidence index 1Q 2018 up 12 points to 43 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

BER building contractors confidence index 1Q 2018 up 7 points to 41 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

FNB/BER civil engineering index 1Q 2018 down 7 points to 12 since 4Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

Ernst&Young/BER financial confidence index 4Q 2017 down 5 points to 43 since 3Q 2017 (scale 0–100)

MMI consumer financial vulnerability index 3Q 2017 down 1,4 points to 47,0 since 2Q 2017 (scale 0–100) Unisa

FNB/BER consumer confidence index 1Q 2018 up 34 point to 26 since 4Q 2017 (scale minus 100–100)

– black consumer confidence index 1Q 2018 up 34 points to 33 since 4Q 2017 (scale minus 100–100)

– white consumer confidence index 1Q 2018 up 45 points to 18 since 4Q 2017 (scale minus 100–100)

– high-income household confidence index 1Q 2018 up 30 points to 29 since 4Q 2017 (scale minus 100–100)

– low-income household confidence index 1Q 2018 up 32 points to 19 since 4Q 2017 (scale minus 100–100)

Absa purchasing managers index (PMI) (Mar) down 3,9 points to 46,9 since Feb 2018 (50 = neutral) BER

Standard Bank purchasing managers index (PMI) (Mar) down 0,3 points to 51,1 since Feb 2018 (50 = neutral) Markit

Sacci trade activity index (TAI) (Mar) down 2 points to 40 since Feb 2018 (scale 0–100)

Sacci trade expectations index (TEI) (Mar) down 4 points to 52 since Feb 2018 (scale 0–100)

Agricultural business confidence index 1Q 2018 up 9 points to 58 compared to 4Q 2017 (2001 = 50) ABC/IDC

BETTER: 11 WORSE: 8


FAST STATS

ECONOMIC BAROMETERGDP 2017 (at current prices) R4 652bn

GDP growth at market prices 2017 vs 2016 1,3% 2016: 0,6%

– Agriculture (2,3% of GDP) 17,7% – Trade etc (13,5%) –0,6%

– Mining (7,2%) 4,6% – Transport and communication (8,8%) 1,5%

– Manufacturing (11,9%) –0,2% – Finance etc (18,1%) 1,9%

– Electricity and water (3,3%) 0,2% – Government (15,9%) 0,3%

– Construction (3,5%) –0,3% – Community services (5,2%) 1,2%

Government consumption expenditure growth 2017 0,6% 2016: 1,9%

Government capital expenditure growth 2017 –0,7% 2016: –3,5%

Public sector non-interest expenditure to GDP 2017 27,9% 2016: 28,0%

Merchandise exports (Jan-Feb) R171,4bn up 3,1% on same period in 2017

Merchandise imports (Jan-Feb) R198,1bn up 14,0% on same period in 2017

Merchandise trade balance (Jan-Feb) -R26,7bn Jan-Feb 2017: -R7,6bn

Gold and forex reserves (Mar) R593,1bn Mar 2017: R618,3bn

Current account deficit 2017 R114,3bn 2016: R121,2bn

– as proportion of GDP 2,5% 2016: 2,8%

Capital account surplus 2017 R139,6bn 2016: R161,1bn

Gold price per ounce (average) (Mar) $1 293 Mar 2017: $1 231 (Increase: 5,0%)

Gold price per ounce (average) (Mar) R 15 298 Mar 2017: R15 929 (Decrease: 4,0%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) (Mar) $954 Mar 2017: $961 (Decrease: 0,7%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) (Mar) R 11 295 Mar 2017: R12 432 (Decrease: 9,1%)

Crude oil price (brent/barrel) (Mar) $66,07 Mar 2017: $51,58 (Increase: 28,1%)

Petrol (premium pump price per litre Gauteng) (Apr) R 14,48 Apr 2017: R13,30 (Increase: 8,9%)

Growth in money supply (M3) (Feb) 6,89% Feb 2017: 6,58%

Change in private sector credit extension (Feb) 5,74% Feb 2017: 5,29%

Prime overdraft rate (average) 25/04/18 10,00% year ago: 10,50%

Real prime overdraft rate (average) (Mar) 5,97% Mar 2017: 4,12% (based on headline inflation)

Repo rate (average) 25/04/18 6,50% year ago: 7,00%

R186 (2026) bond yield rate 23/04/18 8,15% year ago: 8,34%

€/R 0,0685 £/R 0,0605 $/R 0,0845 ¥/R 8,96 €/$ 0,8103 ¥/$ 106,05 Mar 2018a

R/€ 14,6062 R/£ 16,5240 R/$ 11,8356 R/¥ 0,1116 $/€ 1,2341 $/¥ 0,0094 Mar 2018a

Value of rand vs euro last 12/24/36 months –5%/+17%/–11% (Lowest: R/€ 17,79 Highest: R/€ 0,92)a

Value of rand vs dollar last 12/24/36 months +9%/+30%/+2% (Lowest: R/$ 16,38 Highest: R/$ 0,67)a

Value of rand vs pound last 12/24/36 months –3%/+33%/+9% (Lowest: R/ £ 23,60 Highest: R/£ 1,42)a

Value of rand vs yen last 12/24/36 months +3%/+22%/–10%

Rand vs basket last 12/24/36 months +1%/+23%/–1%

a Monthly middle rates.


FAST STATS

LATEST FIGURES AND FORECASTS2017 2018a 2019a

GDP growth 1,3%2,1% 2,3%

1,5% 1,7%

Headline inflation rate (CPI) (average) 5,3%5,3% 5,3%

4,7% 4,9%

Expected CPI (business) (average)(trade unions)

— —

5,6% 5,6%

5,3% 5,2%

Producer price inflation (average) 4,8%5,2% 5,3%

3,5% 4,3%

Gross fixed capital formation 0,4%up 2,2% up 4,7%

up 0,3% up 1,1%

Final consumption expenditure by households 2,2%up 3,1% up 2,9%

up 1,6% up 1,8%

Government consumption expenditure 0,6%up 1,5% up 1,1%

down 0,2% up 0,4%

Gross domestic expenditure 1,9%up 2,5% up 2,4%

up 1,9% up 1,9%

Exports (goods & non-factor services) down 0,1%up 5,0% up 5,2%

up 2,0% up 1,5%

Imports (goods & non-factor services) up 1,9%up 4,9% up 5,0%

up 0,7% up 2,2%

Current account deficit Rbn R114bnR172bn R225bn

R122bn R131bn

– as proportion of GDP 2,5%3,5% 4,3%

2,2% 2,4%

Capital account surplus R140bnR205bn R208bn

R184bn R214bn

Prime overdraft rate (year end) 10,25%10,00% 10,25%

9,75% 9,75%

R/Euro exchange rate (average) 15,0415,10 15,92

14,28 14,44

R/$ exchange rate (average) 13,3112,32 13,27

11,74 11,46

Gold price per ounce (average) $1 258$1 343 $1 400

$1 309 $1 315

Nominal wage rise (private sector) 6,7% 7,3% 8,2%

6,4% 6,4% 6,0%

Employment growth rate (average)2,7% 2,5% 1,8%

2,6% 0,3% 1,2%

Sources: Beeld Consensus; Bureau for Economic Research (BER); Citi Bank; FNB; IMF; Investec; Nedbank; RMB; SARB; Standard Bank; World Bank. Detailed source information is available from [email protected]

a These forecasts contain the highest and lowest estimates available at the time of going to press.

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APRIL 2018 FAST - u01.spsend.comu01.spsend.com/CampResource/5P1LSL72IW4TA430/BIO/text.pdf · FAST FACTS | APRIL 2018 3 The data makes it clear that education or the lack thereof is