Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Stock Analysis Stock Analysis

April 14, 2010

Presented by:

Mark Robertson

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Summary (Points of View) Summary (Points of View) MANIFEST Value Line S&P Morningstar

Return Forecast 5.8% ($125.54) 6% [2] ($103.64)

-44.3% (1-Year price target =

$87)

Quality 83.5

Financial Strength

98 (No Debt) B++ A

Growth Forecast 13.3% 18.5% (per sh) 15% (Thru 2015) [9%-->2024, 3%]

12%

Profitability 7.4% (Net) 7.3% (Net) 7.5% [2010] ~6.0% (14% Oper Margins)

Valuation 24.0x 24.0x 28.8x ($118.50) 26.2x ($108.00)

Overall Rating Hold (84) Sell (2-Stars) [1] Hold (3-Stars)

StockCharts RSI = 79.7 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $191) CASPI = 90.9% April 14, 2010

[1] Strong SELL recommendation one year ago. [2] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

StockCharts RSI = 79.7 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $191) CASPI = 90.9% April 14, 2010

[1] Strong SELL recommendation one year ago. [2] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Sales Growth & 5-Year ForecastSales Growth & 5-Year Forecast

13-14% sales growth seems reasonable based on ACE, S&P, VL and this visual analysis ... focusing on [2Actual/2Forecast]

horizon.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

0%

5%

10%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Net Margin

Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast …Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast …

Restaurant (Casual) industry average net margin = 4.7%

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Valuation Characteristic and Trend ...Valuation Characteristic and Trend ...

101520253035404550

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

P/E Ratio History & Forecast

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

[Modified] Preferred Procedure[Modified] Preferred Procedure

Sales (Trailing 12-Mo) 1558

X Net Margin (%) 8.7%

/ Shares (M) 32.9

Earnings Per Share $4.12

X P/E Ratio 30.5x

Stock Price (4/14/2010) $125.54

Income Statement (4/14/2010)

Income Statement (4/14/2015)

Sales 2935

X Net Margin (%) 7.4%

/ Shares (M) 31.0

Earnings Per Share $7.00

X P/E Ratio (Proj Avg) 24.0x

Stock Price $168.00

@ 13.5%

6.0%

+ 0.0% (Ann. Yield)

6.0% = Projected Annual Return (PAR)

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Technical Analysis (3-Year Profile)Technical Analysis (3-Year Profile)

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

““Rhino Vulnerability”Rhino Vulnerability”

Ownership

Institutional67.4%

Retail32.6%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Insiders

78%

32.7%26.0%