Apresentação do PowerPoint 2018_06_04.pdf · 3 Voter profile: current week distribution Political Analysis Source: XP Investimentos –Presidential Polls [TSE register # available

XP PresidentialPoll

June, 2018

2

Political Analysis

Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018

May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018

XP Presidential Polls

XP Presidential Poll - Details

Conducted by:

Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)

Sample:

1000 interviews/each week

Coverage:

National

Method:

Phone call interviews

Margin of Error:

1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p.

3

Political AnalysisVoter profile: current week distribution

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 7%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%

AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 35% MIDWEST 8%35 TO 54 YO 36% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 28% CAPITAL TOWNS 20% OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 16%

WORKING 59% COUNTRY TOWNS 63%NOT WORKING 41% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 38%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 23% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 26%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 27% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 12%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 24%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 12% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 4% CATHOLIC 60%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 21% EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION 0%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 12% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 21% OTHER 5%HIGH SCHOOL 45% ADVENTITST 1%HIGHER EDUCATION 22% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

4

Political AnalysisHighlights

The sixth XP Presidential Poll, as expected, shows little to no change in first-round scenarios.

Jair Bolsonaro remains as the leader in all three scenarios in which Lula isn’t considered.

On second-round scenarios, Bolsonaro halted the downward trajectory and presented some

stability. He still looses to Lula (33% to 40%) and remains technically tied to Geraldo Alckmin

(33% to 32%), Marina Silva (32% to 35%) and Ciro Gomes (33% to 32%).

For the first time, the electorate was asked what would be their second choice if they could not

vote for the chosen candidate.

Jair Bolsonaro voters are the least likely to vote for other candidates - 50% of them say they

would vote blank, null or don’t know. This rate is 26% for Ciro Gomes voters, 33% for Alckmin

voters, 35% for Marina voters and 40% for Alvaro Dias voters.

Marina Silva is the candidate most chosen as second choice of Bolsonaro voters (18%).

Alckmin is mentioned by 12% of them.

Moreover, Alvaro Dias voters don’t mention Geraldo Alckmin as their main alternative: 23% of

them choose Jair Bolsonaro as the second choice, and 11% opt for Alckmin.

We also introduced a question to asses if voters were in favor or against Lula’s imprisonment

being converted to house arrest. 42% were in favor and 50% against.

5

Political Analysis

39%

28%

13%12%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? (SPONTANEOUS)

33%

42%

37% 37%

40% 39%

33%

19%

25%

28%27%

28%

13%

18%

14%13% 13% 13%

11%12%

14%

12%13% 12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4

Dont Know/Didn't Answer

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

Voting Intention - Spontaneous

JuneWeek 4


6

Political Analysis

31%

22%

12%10%

7% 7%5%

2%1% 1% 1% 1%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

29%

27%

30%29% 29%

31%

22%

25%

23%22% 22% 22%

13% 13% 13% 13% 13%12%

9% 9% 9%8% 8% 7%

11%9%

11% 11% 10% 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

Scenario 1 – PT presents no candidate

JuneWeek 4


7

Political Analysis

28%

22%

12% 11%

8%

6% 5%

2% 2%1% 1% 1% 0%


29%

24%

27% 27%28% 28%

22%

26%

22%21% 21%

22%

13%14%

13% 13%14%

12%

9% 9%8% 8% 8% 8%

11%10%

11%10% 10%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

Scenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)

JuneWeek 4


8

Political Analysis

29%

19% 18%

9%7% 6%

5%3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 0%


30%

28%

30%29%

28%29%

23%

25%

20%19% 19%

19%

17%

13%

15%16%

18%18%

9% 8%7% 7%

7%7%

8%

10% 10% 10% 10%9%

6% 5% 6% 6%5%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

Scenario 3 – with Lula (PT)

JuneWeek 4


9

Political Analysis

23%

20%

11% 10%10%

8%7%

5%

2% 2% 1% 1%0%


25%

19%

24%23%

21%

20%19%

20%

11% 11%12%

11%11% 10% 11%

10%

9% 9% 8% 8%

8% 8% 8%7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Fernando Haddad,supported by Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

Scenario 4 – Haddad with Lula’s support

JuneWeek 4


10

Political Analysis

25% 24%

12%

8%7% 6% 5%

4% 4%3%

2%1% 1%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T END UP IN THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

Second option


11

Political Analysis

FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA

JAIR BOLSONARO

GERALDO ALCKMIN

MARINA SILVA

CIRO GOMES

ÁLVARO DIAS

UNDECIDED

ÁLVARO DIAS 3% 6% 8% 6% 9% 0% 1%CIRO GOMES 24% 7% 9% 16% 0% 4% 2%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 2% 5% 12% 26% 4% 1%FLÁVIO ROCHA 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 8% 12% 0% 10% 4% 11% 3%GUILHERME BOULOS 3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 0% 2% 7% 6% 2% 11% 1%JAIR BOLSONARO 5% 0% 19% 13% 5% 23% 2%MANUELA D'ÁVILA 6% 0% 1% 2% 4% 2% 1%MARINA SILVA 16% 18% 16% 0% 22% 6% 6%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 3% 6% 11% 3% 5% 6% 1%NONE/BLANK/NULL 32% 44% 22% 32% 21% 34% 7%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 74%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN''T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 4

2nd Option

Second option


12

Political Analysis

39%

7%

13% 13%

5% 4%

0%1%

0%1% 1%

6%

37%

7%

12%

15%

12%

5% 4%

1% 1%0%

1%0%

38%

17%

11%10%

9% 8%

3% 2%1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Lula's Vote MigrationScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4

Vote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL


13

Political Analysis

35%36%

40%42%

41% 40%

37%38%

35%34%

33% 33%

26%24% 24%

22%

24% 24%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:

None/Blank/Null

Lula

Jair Bolsonaro

Don't Know/Didn't Answer

31%

28%30% 29% 28% 29%

15%

25%

20% 19% 19% 19%

47%49%

41% 40% 41% 40%

6% 6%7% 6% 5% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin

Fernando Haddad


2nd Round Scenarios


14

Political Analysis

31% 31%

36%

38%36% 35%35%

37%

35%34%

32% 32%

31%30%

28%

25%

28%29%

3% 2% 1%3% 3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Marina


Bolsonaro

33%

35%34% 33%

32%33%

29%28%

29%

31%

31% 32%

34% 34%

34%

30%

34%33%

4% 3% 3%

5%

3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin


Bolsonaro

2nd Round Scenarios


15

Political Analysis

36%

38%

35%34% 33% 33%

29%29% 33% 33% 32%

32%32%

29% 29%

27%

29%32%

4% 3%2%

7% 6%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Bolsonaro

27% 27%

32%30%

30%

32%32%30%

29%31%

32%

32%

38%39%

38%36%

34%32%

3% 4%2% 3%

4% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Alckmin

2nd Round Scenarios


16

Political Analysis

28%

20%

11%10%

8%

5% 4%

LULA BOLSONARO MARINA CIRO ALCKMIN A. DIAS HADDAD

Candidates Strong-Minded Votes- 'Will surely vote for' -

Voter conviction


17

Political Analysis

61%

59% 59% 58%57%

52%

48%

LULA CIRO ALCKMIN HADDAD MARINA BOLSONARO A. DIAS

Candidates Rejection- 'Wouldn't vote in any scenario' -

Rejection


18

Political Analysis

34%

26%

14% 14%

11%

6%

0%

A. DIAS HADDAD BOLSONARO CIRO ALCKMIN MARINA LULA

Unfamiliarity Rate- 'Don't know enough' -

Unfamiliarity


19

Political Analysis

Would Surely Vote

Could VoteWouldn't

Vote Dont't Know

EnoughDon'tKnow/

Didn'tAnswerTotal

LULA 28% 10% 61% 0% 1% 100%

BOLSONARO 20% 11% 52% 14% 3% 100%

MARINA 11% 25% 57% 6% 1% 100%

CIRO 10% 17% 59% 14% 1% 100%

ALCKMIN 8% 21% 59% 11% 2% 100%

A. DIAS 5% 11% 48% 34% 3% 100%

HADDAD 4% 11% 58% 26% 1% 100%

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T

VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.

Conviction, recognition and rejection.June

Week 4


20

Political Analysis

30%

27%

25%

5%4% 4%

3%2%

1%

JAIRBOLSONARO

DON'T KNOW LULA GERALDOALCKMIN

CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS DIDN'TANSWER

HENRIQUEMEIRELLES

IN YOUR OPINION, WHO'S GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT ?

30%

34%32% 31% 31%

30%

26% 25%

19%

26%27% 27%

23%21% 23% 23%

25% 25%

7%6% 6% 5%

5%5%

3% 4%5%

4% 4% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Don't Know

Lula

Alckmin

Bolsonaro

Ciro

Expectation of Victory

JuneWeek 4


21

Political AnalysisDisclaimer

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or

severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this

communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any

other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that

any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances

or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is

confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results

presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in

violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in

this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,

políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

© GrupoXP

June 2018

Documents

Apresentação do PowerPoint 2018_06_04.pdf · 3 Voter profile: current week distribution Political Analysis Source: XP Investimentos –Presidential Polls [TSE register # available