Higher education global trends

and emerging opportunities

Global Education Dialogues

São Paulo

29 October 2013

Claudio Anjos

Director Education and Society

British Council Brazil

The shape of things to come

Research series:

Developed by the British Council during

2011-2012 to analyse the emerging trends

for international higher education and

opportunities until 2020.

Part 1: Developed by the British Council

during 2008-2010 to analyse the emerging

trends for HE opportunities to 2020

Research Aim:

- future shape of the tertiary education sector

- growing internationalisation

- teaching and research.

This study focuses on trends and econometric analysis

What is changing until 2020?

1. Analysis of macroeconomic and demographic data suggests a significant

slow down in the growth of tertiary education enrolments.

2. The above directly affects the mobility of international students – much lower

growth is projected to 2020

3. Continued transnational education growth, determined by quality, student

experience and responding to demand in niche subject areas

4. Increasing importance of international collaborations in the production of

quality research

5. Implications for Brazil higher education institutions

Unfavourable demographics

1. Drivers of Higher education demand

• Demographic (population growth)

• Macroeconomic drivers (GDP HE enrolment ratio)

• Countries’ national policies on international education and legal

frameworks

• % of 18-22 y.o. enrolled in HE courses

2. Tertiary education enrolments globally - 170 million in

2009:

• 160% growth since 1990

• Average annual growth of 5-6% per year in previous decades

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2002=100

China

India

Russia

Brazil

South Korea

Germany

US

Tertiary age (18-22) population

Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics

Forecast

As the graphic shows, many

of the most populous

countries have ageing

demographics. Consequently

there will be slower tertiary

enrolment growth of 1.4%

per year till 2020 compared to

5-6% growth per year in

previous decades.

Growth (absolute) will come

from:

• India (7.1m)

• China (5.1m)

• Brazil (2.6m)

• Indonesia (2.3m)

• Nigeria (1.4m)

Global tertiary

enrolments, student

mobility, global GDP

and trade (1980-2009)

OUTBOUND MOBILITY

UK outbound mobility will increase to 38,000 students by 2020

Global mobile students growth (2011-20)

Brazil outbound mobility will increase to 47.000 students by 2020 (*) with ratio of 0.40% of Brazilian mobile students.

(*) number do not consider the Science Without Borders programme. Forecasts are policy neutral.

Global mobile students in 2020 growth by destination country

Projected growth in

inbound mobility

Forecasts are policy

neutral

INBOUND MOBILITY

Transnational education (TNE)

1. Growth in TNE programmes – especially in East countries: CH, ML and UAE

2. Shift from capacity building (quantity) to tight quality assurance

3. TNE is increasingly contributing to host countries’ national priorities

4. Trend of ‘partnership-led’ model –improving the quality of domestic HE system

5. More research-led universities are engaging in TNE

6. TNE is a significant part of HEIs’ internationalisation strategies

7. Fast response to demand in niche subject areas (business, management, engineering)

8. Very ambitious international student recruitment targets by TNE providers:

500,000 international students by 2020 in China;

150,000 international students by 2015 in Singapore;

200,000 international students by 2020 in Malaysia.

Transnational education (TNE)

International research collaborations

1. Top research nations have more than doubled their international collaborations in 2010 compared to 10 years ago. If the trend continues China would match the US in terms of international collaborations

2. Countries that engage more in international collaboration produce research that are more highly cited

3. Three international collaboration groups: • Volume leaders: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, China,

Japan

• High citation impact: Switzerland, US, Netherlands, UK,

Sweden

• Emerging countries with growing importance: China,

Malaysia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia

International Research Collaboration

Source: Scopus 2012

Implications for Brazil

1. International student mobility

• Brazil will have one of the largest HE systems in the world (around 9.2 million enrolments), dominating global growth with India, Indonesia, Nigeria and China

• Research shows an increase on mobility to 47.000 students by 2020 – however keeping a low ratio of 0.40% of Brazilians abroad (not considering SwB).

2. TNE:

• Relevance of Joint/double degrees, however with strong legislative restrictions

3. International collaborations:

• Attractive country for international partnership – growing focus on quality rather than on quantity

Reports available at

http://www.britishcouncil.org/education/higher-education

Claudio Anjos

claudio.anjos@britishcouncil.org.br

Thank you!