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APPROACHES TO TACKLING NEW CHALLENGES IN
THE LABOUR MARKET
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCHES
WORKSHOP REPORT
ANKARA – TURKEY/ 2019
2
APPROACHES TO TACKLING NEW CHALLENGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCHES
WORKSHOP REPORT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“Approaches to Tackling New Challenges in the Labour Market: the Role of Labour Market
Researches” workshop was held on 20-21 November 2019 in Ankara in cooperation between
Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR) and the World Association of Public Employment Services
(WAPES).
Representatives at general director and expert levels from the public employment services of 13
WAPES members and international organisations, academicians competent in their fields, expert
researchers and many invitees participated in the workshop.
During the sessions in the first day of the two-days workshop, the issues of new challenges in the
labour market, the labour market research in forecasting future trends and policy development,
joint evaluation practices of supply and demand research, evaluation of the processes of
determining methodology and skills needed in demand research and countries’ practices were
addressed whereas during the sessions in the second day, the labour market research was examined
in depth and global good practices were shared.
In the first session, the importance of the labour market research was emphasised and highlighted
that the obtained information enabled understanding the change and transformation in the labour
market in the short, medium and long term and the labour market research became an essential
support for decision and policy makers. It was stated that research methods would be transformed
from the paper-and-pencil method into online and software-based method as the technology
developed. The information about Eurostat works was provided to make all countries obtain data
comparable with their own needs.
The importance of data was highlighted and it was indicated that job seekers’ periods of finding a
job were forecasted based on the data collected and special policies were able to be implemented
for the persons who were expected to find a job in a long period. It was stated that data management
required different expertise and accumulation of knowledge and making investment in this field
was essential in shaping the future of Public Employment Services.
It was mentioned that employment projections for companies could be made using the information
obtained by demand-side research and companies could be classified so that different groups of
companies could be provided with specific services.
It was pointed out that research was intensely utilised to identify the knowledge and skills
demanded from labour force by employers and estimate the transformation of the skills in future
and the research results enabled that active employment policies would be determined and the
decisions of starting an education module and programme would be made based on evidence.
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It was stressed that the “skills” concept came to forefront, employers did not find diplomas
sufficient in job placement -although diplomas were still important for many vocations- and the
labour market research had a significant function in matching vocations with skills and determining
the skills which came to forefront in labour market.
It was expressed that provision of micro data collected during LMR process would contribute to
increasing the quantity and quality of academic publishing. Also, in the research carried out by
İŞKUR in Turkey, it is demanded that the micro data set is shared with researchers in a way similar
to TURKSTAT’s application.
It was said that the data collected by the labour market research and the data obtained by household
research would be jointly analysed and used to create fiscal policy.
It was addressed that it was important to exchange ideas from the beginning of the labour market
research with the aim of enabling stakeholder organisations to use the collected data more
effectively.
It was emphasised that employers’ footprints related to the labour market in the organisations such
as social security institution and public employment services had to be electronically recorded and
the data collected would be used to create forecast models by means of artificial intelligence.
During the workshop, the participants highly attended the sessions. Both local and foreign
participants expressed their appreciation and mentioned the importance of the activities regarding
the issue. All parties highlighted the positive effects of such events on increasing the information
exchange and cooperation between stakeholder organisations. The presentations made in the
sessions were shared with WAPES members in electronic environment.
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APPROACHES TO TACKLING NEW CHALLENGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCHES
WORKSHOP REPORT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 2
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 5
PANEL 1: ............................................................................................................................................ 8
NEW CHALLENGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH ............... 8
SESSION OUTCOMES: ............................................................................................................. 8
PANEL 2: .......................................................................................................................................... 14
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH IN FORECASTING FUTURE TRENDS AND POLICY
DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................................................. 14
SESSION OUTCOMES: ............................................................................................................ 14
PANEL 3: .......................................................................................................................................... 20
JOINT EVALUATION PRACTICES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESEARCH: ................................... 20
SESSION OUTCOMES: ............................................................................................................ 20
PANEL 4: .......................................................................................................................................... 24
METHODOLOGY IN DEMAND RESEARCH AND COUNTRY PRACTICES; EVALUATION OF DETERMINATION
PROCESSES OF SKILLS NEEDED .......................................................................................................... 24
SESSION OUTCOMES: ............................................................................................................ 24
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................... 27
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APPROACHES TO TACKLING NEW CHALLENGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCHES
WORKSHOP REPORT
INTRODUCTION
Today countries face with many challenges including increasing unemployment rates, low
participation in employment and bottleneck job vacancies. The World Bank estimates that more
than 600 million jobs will have to be created across the world in the next 10 years in order to
prevent the increase in unemployment and include the young people in employment in the labour
market. Regions such as Africa and Asia confront with some problems about employment of young
people the number of whom increases in the labour market every day. Also, policy makers cope
with the problems such as low rates of participation in labour market and high poverty rates among
the people who will be employed and participate in labour force.
Public Employment Services (PES) assume many responsibilities about coping with all these
challenges. The most important and major responsibility is to supply decent jobs for more people
for longer periods. To achieve this goal, PES should approach the issue of labour demand and
supply with a holistic perspective considering multi-transitions that emerge in the labour market
and personal career. In other words, it is essential that PES adopt a holistic approach beyond
institutional and geographic boundaries while establishing bridges between job seekers and
employers.
6
It is once more revealed that the labour market research is significant and necessary to
comprehendlabour market structure, follow
periodic developments and forecast future period,
and these three aspects are essential for sustainable
employment and decent jobs. The Labour market
research is separated into two groups as supply-side
and demand-side research. Supply-side research
that investigates the labour dimension of labour
market provides various data of population structure
in terms of “unemployment”, “labour force
participation” and “employment”. Demand-side
research that investigates the employer dimension
of labour market provides data such as “number of employees”, “job vacancies” and “bottleneck
jobs”. The comparable, scientific and detailed data that is obtained by research turns out to be an
important support mechanism for policy and decision makers.
In this context, “Approaches to Tackling New Challenges in the Labour Market: the Role of Labour
Market Researches” Workshop that was held on 20-21 November 2019 in Ankara in cooperation
between Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR) and the World Association of Public Employment
Services (WAPES) focused on the new challenges in the labour market and aimed to put forward
good practices, countries’ approaches and labour market analysis methods to predict these
challenges in advance and find the right solution.
The labour market research has been carried out in international standards and from supply and
demand sides for many years in Turkey that hosted the workshop. While the supply-side research
on household is made by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the demand-side research is
made by İŞKUR with a holistic approach to obtain information about all employers in the market.
During the sessions in the first day of the two-day workshop, the issues of new challenges in the
labour market, the labour market research in forecasting future trends and policy development,
joint evaluation practices of supply and demand research, evaluation of the processes of
determining methodology and skills needed in demand research and countries’ practices were
addressed whereas the labour market research was examined in technical details and global good
practices were shared during the sessions in the second day.
Mr. Cafer Uzunkaya- Director General of
İŞKUR, Ms. Sofia ELOMRI- Vice President
of WAPES Europe Region, managers and
personnel of the Directorate General and
Provincial Directorates of İŞKUR,
representatives at general director and expert
levels from public employment services of
WAPES members and international
organisations, academicians competent in
their fields, expert researchers and many
invitees the number of whom were more than
7
200 participated in the workshop. The issues addressed in the workshop were reported in the
Workshop Report and the report is made available to be disseminated at national and international
levels.
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DAY 1- PROGRAMME: 20 NOVEMBER 2019
PANEL 1:
NEW CHALLENGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND THE ROLE OF
LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH
Moderator: Hilde D'AUBIOUL, WAPES Executive Secretariat
Speakers:
• Javier ALCANTARA ORTEGA – EUROSTAT Statistical Expert (Skype Connection)
• Burcu Tuba ŞENEL – ILO Turkey Employment Expert
• Kenan BAĞCI – Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic
Countries (SESRIC) Senior Researcher
• Frederic GUILLEMIN – Pole Emploi BigData IT Project Leader
• Oğuz DÜZGÜN – İŞKUR - Department of Labour Market and Statistics Acting Department
Head
In this session which is the main panel of the event, the aim was to respond to the question of “Is
it possible to provide effective public employment service by means of a true labour market
analysis?” and discuss the challenges in the labour markets across the world and the role of the
labour market research in coping with the challenges.
SESSION OUTCOMES:
EUROSTAT
• The research that is carried out by the data collected from households is based on household
labour force surveys whereas the data collected from workplaces is based on the research on job
vacancy statistics.
• EU 2020 Strategy will be revised and new policies and strategies will be developed based on
the main indicators compiled by demand and supply-side research.
• With regard to the details of household surveys, households are visited and data is collected
mainly considering the ILO definitions although there are differences between countries.
• EUROSTAT collects data with more than 120 variables from 33 countries in total including 28
EU members and 5 EU candidate country -including Turkey- and carries out thematic research
on labour market by means of module survey.
• New framework regulation is being developed, the labour market definitions such as
employment, unemployment and people outside the labour force will be revised and new
regulations will be put into effect in 2021.
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• Instead of PAPI (Paper and Pencil Interview) method, CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal
Interview), CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) and CAWI (Computer Assisted
Web Interview) methods will be expanded as the data collection method.
• Labour flow has been monitored since 2015 and studies have been carried out to analyse the
transitions between employment, unemployment and inactive population.
ILO
• ILO utilises official estimates, administrative sources, household labour force surveys, founding
treaties and national accounts to collect labour market data.
• The International Labour
Conference (ILC) that has been
held since 1923 and the
International Conference of
Labour Statisticians (ICLS)
have guided the determination
of the standards, methodologies
and definitions related to the
labour market. In this context,
the 20th ICLS was held on 10-19
October 2018 in Geneva with
the agenda of “improving and
promoting labour rights”.
• In addition, ILO has three important reports that provide guidance and determine the agenda:
World Employment Social Outlook (WESO), World Social Protection Report (WSPR) and
Global Wage Report (GWR).
• The traditional challenges such as informality and the labour market challenges that have not
been resolved are still continuing. In this frame, it was indicated that the opportunities and
challenges that resulted from technological change had to be investigated.
SESRIC
• 2020 report, frame and content of which are determined by the challenges encountered in the
labour market, will be published in the next period as the continuation of 2015 and 2017 OIC
Labour Market Reports.
• When general rates are assessed; across OIC countries, the labour force participation rate for
men was approximately 77.5%, for women was under 40%, and employment rate throughout
OIC countries realised as approximately 54%. Compared to non-OIC countries, it is observed
that employment is higher in agricultural sector.
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• In OIC countries, vulnerable employment structure corresponds 46.2% among men and 62.3%
among women. 2/3 of women have working conditions not appropriate for them.
• It was stated that youth unemployment have an increasing trend and the rate of youth
unemployment is 14% across OIC countries. Palestine has the highest rate of youth
unemployment with 46.8%, youth unemployment rates of Libya, Jordan and Gabon are over
35%.
• Among OIC countries, the crucial problem encountered is skills mismatch; on the other hand,
low rate of female participation in the labour force, maintaining and increasing the employment
have become other significant problem areas.
• Within the scope of tackling the said problem areas, targets and actions have been identified in
5 thematic areas. Thematic areas:
1. Decreasing unemployment
2. Increasing labour force participation rate
3. Increasing employability
4. Protecting rights of employees
5. Increasing labour productivity.
• Programmes have been developed for technical support and cooperation to solve the problems
in the said thematic areas.
FRANCE
• French employment agency have 50 thousand staff, and 85 personnel have worked in digital
services in “Big Data” unit in 2019.
• 90% of job seekers seeks jobs on the internet in France. With the information that 2% of these
job seekers has difficulty in digital media and through
questionnaires in France responses are searched for
questions regarding projects on finding jobs, trends and
rising professions.
• With the follow-up programme used by the Agency,
the information related to the questions like “who employ
persons” or “who left their jobs” can be reached. With
this information, successful strategies for job placement
are developed.
• As a result of research, some professions such as data
presenter, data architect have emerged. Data flow is
provided from the private clusters to the data system
called as Central Data Lake/Pool.
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• Data is collected in the Current Data Panel from various sources including workplace records,
navigation information, management data and job seeker data. When the purposes of data
management are considered, some issues such as providing data security, keeping data up-to-
date and providing certain quality conditions come into prominence.
• Some questions such as “Is there any fraud transaction?”, “Can a job seeker find a job?” guide
the next generation data management and also provide data for the projection for future.
• Thanks to Proximity Graph Exploration method, it is foreseen whether the individual finds a job
based on his/her basic demographic information. Some studies have been carried out to predict
the period of finding a job with regard to graduation, skills and the fields of application.
TURKEY
• In Turkey, researches carried out on the demand side of labour force are regularly made only by
İŞKUR, and the first research of the Agency was realised in 1958. In this context, İŞKUR come
into prominence as the Agency that has the highest background.
• At the point how the objective, methodology and results of research conducted by İŞKUR are
transformed into policies, explanations for three main research carried out by İŞKUR are as
follows:
1. The Labour Market Research:
➢ The Labour Market Research (LMR) are conducted to reveal and evaluate the demand
structure of the labour market, monitor its trend and disclose the expectations.
➢ The Labour Market Research conducted by İŞKUR are the most comprehensive research
realised on the demand side of Turkish labour market. The main objective of research is
to determine the needs of labour market (determining the number of employees labour
market needs and qualifications they must have etc.), and follow sectoral and vocational
changes and developments which happen or are expected to happen in the current period
or in future.
➢ Moreover, current issues on working life are included in the scope of research as modular
questions. Information obtained from the research help policy makers decide with a
strategic point of view and observe the effects of policies they implement, constitute data
source for active employment policies, and thereby ensure that vocational training courses
compatible with the needs would be organised.
➢ This research enables İŞKUR to deliver services to wider mass and thus increase the
number of job placements. Data collected from the research meets the need for
information about labour demand of other agencies and institutions as well as İŞKUR,
and provides data to ensure that vocational training planning is compatible with the needs.
➢ The Labour Market Research has continued in cooperation with TURKSTAT as of 2011.
Lists of workplace visited within research are prepared by TURKSTAT. In this research,
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in which international, sectoral and vocational classifications are used, field works are
conducted through complete counting in 77 provinces and selecting workplaces, which
can represent the whole country, via sampling method in 4 provinces.
➢ Except for four provinces in which sampling is conducted, all workplaces employing
more than 20 employees are visited. Sample provinces İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir and Bursa.
In workplaces which have 2-9 and 10-19 employees, field visits are made via sampling
method to get results throughout Turkey.
➢ Workplaces that are visited in the sample provinces are determined in a way to obtain a
result within 95% confidence interval. The research has no methodological deficiencies,
since TURKSTAT support was taken at the phases of determining the workplace lists and
generalising the data received from the field.
➢ Questionnaire used in the research is utilised through the method of face-to-face interview
with employer by our Job and Vocational Counsellors.
2. Research on Job Vacancy Statistics:
➢ Job Vacancy Statistics are key indicators of what happens in the labour market. Therefore,
job vacancy statistics help policy makers decide with strategic point of view and observe
the effects of policies they implement.
➢ In Turkey, job vacancy statistics which can reflect the developments on the demand side
of the labour market, are compatible with the international standards, are consistent and
comparable are provided by İŞKUR which is responsible for public employment services.
➢ The data is compiled by applying the research to private sector enterprises employing 10
or more employees identified with TURKSTAT.
➢ Geographical scope of the research is the entire province and districts within the territory
of the Republic of Turkey regardless of their population size. Sectoral scope of the
research consists of 17 sectors apart from agriculture, forestry and fishing, public
administration and defence, compulsory social security, activities of households as
employers and activities of international organisations and their representatives according
to Rev 2 classification of Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European
Community (NACE).
➢ Within the scope of the research, employers are asked about their current employment,
labour force they need and skills they seek in individuals they tend to employ. Under the
official statistics programme, as foreseen by EU legislation, job vacancy statistics
reflecting nationwide of Turkey will be collected and the collected data will be transferred
to European Statistical Office (EUROSTAT) in a short time.
3. Thematic Research:
➢ In addition to the research carried out periodically by İŞKUR, Thematic Research is
conducted for determination of existing problems in the labour market and solution offers
for them.
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➢ The main objective of the research is to obtain data on a specific issue, determine the
current situation and reveal solution offers by this way. The research realised every year
guide decision makers.
➢ It was stated that İŞKUR uses not only quantitative methods, but also the way of
confirming data obtained through qualitative research methods.
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DAY 1-PROGRAMME: 20 NOVEMBER 2019
PANEL 2:
THE ROLE OF LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH IN
FORECASTING FUTURE TRENDS AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Moderator: Hilde D'AUBIOUL, WAPES Executive Secretariat
Speakers:
• Moya DRAYTON, Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Enterprises –
Australian Government
• Samir ZUKO, Expert Counsellor of Local Labour Market - Labour and Employment Agency of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Anna DELIBASEVA, Head of Analysis, Monitoring and Planning Department, Bulgarian
Employment Agency
• Dr. Necdet KENAR, Secretary General, Bahçeşehir University
• Prof. Dr. Abdurrahman B. Aydemir, Academician, Sabancı University
Approaches to estimating future in a labour market and competences of experts to demonstrate the
current situation of the supply and demand sides of the labour force are very important in estimating
composition and the potential number of unemployed population, who will seek jobs and be
beneficiaries of Public Employment Services in the foreseeable future, and determining the
services to be delivered. An effective distribution of labour force, in other words supply of labour
force and efficient use of resources in line with the needs of labour market, is possible with correct
analyses and estimations. In the second panel of the workshop, it was aimed to discuss the
efficiency of labour market research in estimating future and policy development, and evaluate the
studies to be carried out for strengthening.
SESSION OUTCOMES:
AUSTRALIA:
• New model grounded on Central Management in Use of New Research Methods to Improve
New Employment Services Model is significant primarily in expressing what kind of methods
were used in the past, what new methods are.
15
• From past to present, long-term unemployment in Australian employment services has been an
issue to be addressed. While 45% of job seekers were long-term unemployed in 2010, this rate
increased to 66% in 2019.
• Providing more rapid, eligible and effective service to those who are ready to employment at
most through online services, and awareness that establishment of more efficient system allows
directing more resources to the disadvantaged people paved the way for the change
• Emerging labour market trends have been monitored and identified through analysing the labour
market trends. Evidence-based policy development approach and employer questionnaires have
been implemented.
• Qualifications and activities of job seekers and administrative data for income support,
qualitative feedback from job seekers, employers and other stakeholders are important to
provide labour market data required for the implementation of programmes.
• A “star rating” system is used to rank providers of employment services; and monitoring their
performances, calculation for differences in the labour market conditions and ranking according
to country-wide performance are realised via this system. This system operates with the
principle of continuous improvement.
• The government focuses on user-centred research, counselling and joint design studies to ensure
successful implementation of new model. Success is particularly based on the joint action of
service provider and counsellor to support transition to new arrangements.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
• The phases of the labour market research process in terms of the necessary steps to be taken in
order to obtain reliable and valid information to decide on future trends and policy development
are as follows:
1. Defining problems and objectives of the research: The researcher must define the problem
and have a goal and a response indicating the field to be explained better via the research.
2. Determination of data source and type of research: types such as exploratory research-
quantitative, concluding - locking and descriptive, usually qualitative must be determined.
3. Data collection method and questionnaire forms must be determined.
4. Another step is to specify sample type and collect primary data.
5. Afterwards, the collected data will be analysed and their results will be interpreted.
6. Reporting –written result report is prepared in the format that the users can make the best
use of.
• Besides, there are requirements that every report and every written material must meet:
1.Holism, 2.Accuracy, 3.Clarity, 4.Conciseness. Evaluation is realised in line with their
qualities.
16
• The labour market research in Bosnia and Herzegovina are conducted annually. Considering
that disconnection between the labour market and education system is a burning problem, the
role of market research over time makes some progress in solving the systemic mismatch of
labour supply and demand and in anticipating future needs for qualifications and skills.
• Through these activities, the institutes and employment services in Bosnia and Herzegovina
have intensified their cooperation activities with educational institutions and employers in order
to enable rapid transformation and adaptation of the individual in relation to the changing
demands and needs of the market.
• It is noteworthy that, besides harmonizing demand and supply through research, it is used in
areas such as the creation of modern databases, which includes data of unemployed and
working-age people, in examining the needs of the labour market and even granting work
permits to foreign nationals.
BULGARIA
• With the purpose of meeting the
need for labour force in the short-
term, the recent information about
the competences, knowledge and
skills regarding the vocations
demanded by employers is collected
and analysed, the labour market
design policies related to the needs
for new skills in the labour market
are led, the investments on the
short-term labour force training are
oriented towards job-seeking skills,
the employment of the unemployed
people who have nearly extinct
skills and qualifications is facilitated and the job vacancies are facilitated to be filled by means
of enabling labour force to have the right skills and qualifications.
• This research, held by the Employment Agency social partners and the scientific community,
was conducted as an online survey (396,000 units) with a stratified random sample containing
4,000 statistical units designed for all active employers in the country, and carried out on an
annual basis.
• According to the main results of the survey conducted in 2018, the three most wanted vocations
are construction worker, welder and crop worker, while the most required qualifications are
foreign language knowledge, taking initiative and entrepreneurship.
• In addition, critical thinking, creativity, cooperation, communication and information literacy
come into prominence as the 21st century skills.
• The goals achieved in Bulgaria with this research are as follows:
17
1. 256 unemployed people who received 2 months of short-term training in the vocation of
construction are employed,
2. 4,015 people were directed to vocational training, and they completed training successfully
and 3,211 of them started to work within 3 months after completing the training,
3. In the first nine months of 2019, 2,975 job vacancies were published through the
Employment Agency,
4. The average time spent for job postings in the construction industry was reduced by 1.2
months during the nine months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018.
5. The plan to increase the number of students in the classes where the 10 most wanted
vocations are taught in vocational high schools by 16.2% for the academic year 2019/2020
and by 10% for the academic year 2020/2021 has been included in strategic documents.
• “Labour Market Barometer” comes into prominence as another research conducted in Bulgaria.
Through this research, Germany was taken as a model, better predictions were made for the
labour market, approval was received from professional circles, the institution was perceived as
a leading expert in the labour market, and additional incentives were provided to increase the
institutional capacity of the PES.
• As another planning, there is a “Medium-Term and Long-Term Projections (2008-2034) for the
Development of the Bulgarian Labour Market” and it is emphasized that this model is
compatible with the best international practices in the field.
• The model contains mathematical and statistical tools and is implemented in a special software
environment (Python, R, EViews, PSPP, Excel, VBA), and forecasting model for the labour
market in Bulgaria includes 120 vocations, 35 economic activities, 28 country regions, 3
education degrees, gender and 6 age groups.
• Key aspects of the model: Decreasing working-age population and aging labour force, delay in
development in education and health sectors in comparison with the other EU Member
Countries, low technology intensity in economic activities, low level of wages compared to the
EU average, regional imbalances in the labour market based on the structural scarcity of the
qualified personnel with secondary education or structural surplus of employees with higher or
primary education.
• It also provides possible solutions to overcome negative trends in the labour market. These can
be listed as promoting fertility, supporting technological developments, improving education
quality and income policy.
18
BAHÇEŞEHİR UNIVERSITY
• In the scope of the Labour Market Research, the research centre (BETAM) within the university
publishes “Labour Review Report” on 15th of every month. In this study, TURKSTAT
Household Labour Force Analysis and İŞKUR Statistical Bulletins are utilised. In addition,
Kariyer.net which is a job seeking web site may be utilised as well.
• Reports on women, youth, disabled people and Syrians, economic growth,societal and social
developments are also published within BETAM.
• The research conducted shows that unemployment rates are increasing and the current
unemployment rates are close to the rates that increased to 14% in 2009. It is essential that
Turkey grows at 6-7% and İŞKUR carries out active employment measures to decrease
unemployment.
• Based on the experience of labour data/research on establishing the unemployment insurance
system in Turkey, the issues to be considered while creating unemployment insurance
parameters: the unemployed person maintaining his/her minimum subsistence level, leading the
unemployed person to seek job instead of promoting unemployment, a fund with a surplus and
maintaining actuarial balance, truly forecasting the potential beneficiaries by monitoring the
data of quitting job and monitoring the abroad applications.
• It is also important to communicate and cooperate with the market actors in creation and
implementation of effective policies.
19
SABANCI UNIVERSITY
• At the point of managing skills, it is tried to determine skills supply and demand through labour
market surveys and employer surveys. Public policies determine which sector will grow more
than others will, so that students are directed to the right areas.
• Considering İŞKUR and TURKSTAT studies, while the job vacancy rate in 2017 was 10.3%,
this rate was realised as 12.6% in 2018, besides there is 13% unemployment.
• It is observed that while the number of jobseekers is increasing, job vacancies are also
increasing. It has been especially emphasized that the state “no training level is required” is
highly preferred for the level of education that employers expect for vacant jobs.
• At this point, it can be seen from the responses of the employers that the expected progress was
not achieved based on training data alone, and the skills rather than education have become
important in filling job vacancies.
• In the light of the latest developments, it is emphasized to promote education. Compulsory
education in Turkey was firstly extended to 8 years from 5 years and then it has been extended
to 12 years. The number of the universities in Turkey was 67 in 1998 whereas it was 206 in
2018.
• However, according to a study, the participation of women, who have received training for more
than 1 year, in employment increases by 7-8%, while this ratio is around 2-2.5% for men. This
leads to the conclusion that each additional education year creates more employment
opportunities for women than for men.
• In addition, the studies carried out reveal that there is no positive correlation between schooling
duration and economic growth, but the quality of education provided in the school and the
quantitative skills increase the growth, not the increase in the number of schools.
20
DAY 1-PROGRAMME: 20 NOVEMBER 2019
PANEL 3:
JOINT EVALUATION PRACTICES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RESEARCH
Moderator: Hilde D'AUBIOUL, WAPES Executive Secretariat
Speakers:
• Lassaad HAMMI, Head of Department, Tunisian Employment Agency (ANETİ)
• Tuna KEMALİ, TURKSTAT Expert, Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT)
• Prof. Dr. Murat ATAN, Academician, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University
• Dr. Altan ALDAN, Economist, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
In the session, the aim was to discuss the channels through which the countries made demand and
supply side research and the way of aligning two sides if the research was carried out by different
institutions and the correspondences of them in the market.
SESSION OUTCOMES:
TUNISIA:
• There is a mismatch between supply and demand in the labour market and this mismatch results
from the difference between the skills, interests and experiences of job seekers and the types of
job vacancies that employers want to fill in.
• Supply-oriented research is carried out for the highest benefit of job seekers through job-seeking
techniques in Tunisia.
• Preparing a curriculum vitae is the most frequently method of applying to a job and introducing
oneself to employers. However, a curriculum vitae does not give sufficient information about
people. Based on the curriculum vitae, the qualifications of the applicants are evaluated
depending on the requirements of the job vacancy to be filled.
• The purpose of the interview is to enable the employer to evaluate whether the applicant is the
right candidate for assuming responsibilities of the job. Since some aspects of CV may be
interrogated by the employer, the content of CV should be known very well. Thus, the
impression expected to be reflected at this stage should be realistic.
• Job seeking channels may be friends, parents, colleagues, classmates, teachers, neighbours and
social activities. Job seeking through familiar people is still frequently preferred.
• On the demand side, the qualifications of the person may come to prominence since the
employer wants to find a worker compatible with the job supply. In this regard, public agencies
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assist employers to find the personnel with the sufficient qualifications. It is necessary to create
a convenient working environment and provide legal incentives (e.g. tax).
• On the other hand, it is necessary that employers can access new technologies and international
markets and a balance should be maintained between the requirements of the labour market and
the qualifications of the people.
• On the supply side, it is considered that the adaptation process is facilitated if transition from a
company to another one is facilitated, young people are encouraged for innovative sectors and
entrepreneurship and salaries and conditions are improved.
TURKSTAT
• The Household Labour Force Questionnaire has been implemented regularly since 1988. The
questionnaire produces and publishes results in line with the definitions of employment and
unemployment determined by the International Labour Organization, as well as the regulations
set by EUROSTAT for European countries.
• The questionnaire is carried out by the sampling method with the households living in the
selected addresses and applied to all members of the household.
• There are an average of 100 questions in the research carried out by computer-assisted personal
interview. The number of questions posed to each person varies depending on the person's
responses and labour force status. The questionnaire lasts for averagely 15 minutes for each
individual who is determined randomly by sampling method.
• TurkStat has interviews with 3,400 households weekly and 176,000 households annually across
Turkey through the 26 Regional Directorates. Two-stage stratified cluster sampling is used.
• Monthly estimates are made and address-based population system is used. Data collected after
the field application is transferred to the central database. After the analysis of the data set,
Turkey estimates are obtained from the information acquired from the questionnaire using the
weight coefficients.
• The survey is done quarterly by mobile indicator method and its results are published on the 15th
of the relevant month 45 days after the end of the related period.
• It is aimed to reach users with micro datasets and active databases in which especially the
academic circle is interested.
• The 5th child labour research has been conducted, and the group referred to as child represents
the group between the ages of 6 and 14.
• Studies are also carried out to compare administrative records with questionnaire data. Since the
Republic of Turkey ID number of individuals can be reached with the questionnaire, the
questionnaire records and administrative records can be compared.
ANKARA HACI BAYRAM VELİ UNIVERSITY
• It is necessary to create a unified database for the labour market, and the correct reading of the
market and the accuracy of the data are extremely important to direct the labour market.
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• There is a mismatch between the qualifications of the young people who graduated from
universities and the job he/she is demanded. Higher education needs to be revised as the
education received from the education programme is far from meeting real needs.
• With the aim of struggling with unemployment and increasing employment, creating local and
national employment policies, monitoring the developments and labour movements in the
labour market depends on obtaining and interpreting up-to-date, reliable and scientific
information.
• Providing accurate statistical information and data is very important in the policy development
process of public institutions.
• Data that does not serve for the purpose and do not include result-oriented content will lead to
the implementation of wrong policies and waste of public resources.
• Research on the labour market are expected to keep pace with the developing technology.
Transferring data over paper causes cost problems. Data systems that keep up with technological
innovations should be used.
• In order to evaluate the collected data from different perspectives and to report in academic
studies, the data must be open and accessible to both public and private institutions and
individual researchers, and it must be provided free of charge, as well.
• In addition, continuous verification of the data set of the sample used by TURKSTAT for both
supply and demand side studies should be ensured.
• In some sectors (construction, etc.), due to excessive mobilization, currency of the data may be
an issue of concern.
THE CENTRAL BANK
• Reports are prepared using data produced by İŞKUR, and these data can be used in determining
money policy, as well.
• The Philips curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, and the
total number of employed people can provide important clues about the economy.
• The estimated number for unemployment is an important indicator for both the CB and the
labour market.
• In addition to the relationship between growth and employment, it is also important for
employment to determine how much progress is made in which sector. If there is a growth in
the employment of capital-intensive sectors, employment may be lower than expected.
• Behavioural differences of employees in different sectors are also important. Predicting
potential losses allows for timely detection and intervention. It is necessary to estimate the
sectors in which unemployment has increased and to take precautions for it. For example, while
the construction industry shrank last year, other sectors such as food and shelter grew.
• Increasing interest rates, increase in vagueness and decrease in investment demand are discussed
in Inflation Report dated October 2018. In this study, correlation between labour force and
employment growth was addressed.
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• Comparison of industry and service sectors between 2004 and 2012, and comparison of different
sectors related to unemployment problem were made. There was 70 percent labour loss in
construction sector. Those people pulled out of the labour market.
• It should be known that construction sector has the most unregistered employment and it is a
man-intensive sector, workers in this sector are mostly the only working member in the family
and cannot leave the labour market but work as unregistered subcontractor.
• In the data, information on growth of sectors is provided but there is no integrated information
on job transition.
• The Central Bank uses separate data set for each sector. However, data divided into sections as
time-based are needed. Separate prediction models should be created for each sector.
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DAY 2-PROGRAMME: 21 NOVEMBER 2019
PANEL 4:
METHODOLOGY IN DEMAND RESEARCH AND COUNTRY
PRACTICES; EVALUATION OF DETERMINATION PROCESSES OF
SKILLS NEEDED
Moderator: Prof. Dr. Ulvi SARAN, President of Public Research Foundation
Speakers:
• Frederic GUILLEMIN, BigData IT Project Leader, Pole Emploi
• Oğuz KARADENİZ, Academician, Pamukkale University
• Volkan ÖZ, Head of Department of Active Labour Market Services, İŞKUR
• Mattia MAKOVEC, the World Bank
In this session where both methods used in the field and main approaches in reporting stage in
demand-side research will be discussed, methods of the countries to keep count the number of
vacancies, bottleneck occupations and current employees are analysed. In this context, in this
session it is aimed to assess sectoral and thematic research for determining skills needed in the
market and experience sharing.
SESSION OUTCOMES:
FRANCE
• The first one is an annual survey, called as “Annual Survey (BMO)” and made for employers to
learn their recruitment predictions since 2002, last year it was conducted with 1.7 million
employers. The results are published online.
• Those surveys present basic information
related to prediction of French labour market
and skills, competencies and trainings of job
seekers.
• The second one is a global French Project
called as “Nominal Social Declaration”
(DSN). It aims to include and centralise
French social declarations (recruitment,
salary, disease, etc.). DSN contains information such as recruitment, resignation, dismissal,
salary payment, disease duration, and with these information, public employment agency
collects information regarding French labour market.
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• Its advantages are given as facilitating prediction by reducing bureaucracy, measuring labour
market tendencies and detecting illegality.
• Third method is to use job offer history. In order to view skills required by job vacancies
published before, tendencies of enterprises, regional characteristics, wages, contracts, corporate
behaviours and life span, 23 million announcement published since 2012 are checked.
• Besides these, another target of France is “Employment Intelligence Programme”. Via the
programme which is planned to be brought into service for the next three years, with a state fund
(FTAP) supporting artificial intelligence, it is aimed to develop services rendered for employers,
to give personalised support to job seekers and employers, to determine recruitment needs
according to the market, to increase the attraction of job announcements, to accelerate access,
to determine the risks of leaving school and to create a virtual assistant to increase auto-replies.
PAMUKKALE UNIVERSITY
• Some findings were obtained during İŞKUR labour force demand research. While determining
labour force demand, data resources rather than İŞKUR’s research should be reached. Carrying
out a big data mining in this field is important.
• Data integration with social security institutions is very important. Submission of data to joint
database by employers, making joint coding and software and analysing them together are also
crucial.
• It is also important to combine labour force supply and demand research. It is important to
consider İŞKUR’s labour market research together with TURKSTAT’s research.
• It is important to handle macro and micro variables together, to handle medium and long-term
projections on policies and labour force and training reflections.
• Upon the foresight that half of the professions would disappear and new ones would come up
in 10 years, the issue of future’s professions is important in terms of adaptation to new
professions, training of employers, making more research and planning to transfer those whose
profession gets older.
İŞKUR
• Within the scope of “Importance of Skills and Determination of Skills” presentation, the
importance of human capital is highlighted.
• Human capital is one of the key driving forces of economic growth. It is inseparable part of
socio-economic employment policy. It has direct effect on productivity, performance and
competitiveness in real sector. It can cause mismatch and incompatible utilisation of labour
force. It also can cause labour loss and resource loss for public authorities.
• The biggest companies in the world are the companies that take the first step to carry out new
activities which have not been done before and use the human capital effectively.
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• Skills determination process: It is a strategic and systematic process, which is used for preparing
skills needs of future and avoiding mismatch between skills supply and demand.
• It provides better training and employment opportunities for young people, job seekers, policy
makers, employees and employers. It also ensures human capital and current skills development
through the information provided.
• In order to manage skills correctly, data-oriented policy should be created, local policy-making
capacity should be increased, coordination among public institutions should be increased and
process should be monitored.
WORLD BANK
• A new model has been developed to determine critical vocations across Turkey and in provincial
level.
• In the developed model, İŞKUR’s administrative records, İŞKUR’s Labour Market Research
data, TURKSTAT’s Household Labour Force Research data, SSI’s data and data collected from
Entrepreneurship Information System and other sources have been used.
• It is aimed that public employment agency (İŞKUR), job seekers, students, career counselling
centres and other institutions will benefit from that model.
• In the developed model, a bilateral method has been developed to determine “critical” vocations
and skills.
• 1. Step: In order to determine the fastest growing vocations through top down approach, micro
data analysis of current employment /companies (based on employment increase and wage
increase indicators) and job announcement data analysis (job announcements and vacancies)
will be made.
• 2. Step: It is aimed to organise negotiation and verification workshops by top down verification,
if it is needed, to collect new data from the companies in target regions to fill vacant positions
in the market and distribute the lists of critical occupations and skills.
• Key words for job vacancies will be determined through data mining, and needs for jobs will be
compiled according to the market.
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CONCLUSION
Representatives at general director and expert levels from the public employment services of
WAPES members and international organisations, academicians competent in their fields, expert
researchers and many invitees participated in “Approaches to Tackling New Challenges in the
Labour Market: the Role of Labour Market Researches” workshop which was held on 20-21
November 2019 in Ankara in cooperation between Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR) and the
World Association of Public Employment Services (WAPES).
Some main outcomes reached during two-day panels and discussions conducted within the scope
of the workshop are summarised as follows:
1. Labour markets of all countries undergo an important technological change and transformation
process. This change forces both public employment services, employers and job seekers to
change. In order to understand those changes, it is highly important to design, carry out and
analyse supply and demand side research properly.
2. In addition to putting forward the current situation of demand side of labour markets, it is highly
important to use Labour Market Research to create medium and long-term demand forecasts.
3. Data obtained from research is used in creating and revising the important policy texts such as
2020 EU Strategy, thus the research is considered as an important instrument in forming basic
macro policies.
4. Using the data obtained from Labour Market Research in policy making and deciding processes
and efforts for it have an important function in preventing unemployment.
5. Changeable economic conditions require taking fast action of all parties of labour market.
Excitation function of indicators of labour market should be read accurately for efficient and
fast intervention.
6. Since computers will substitute humans as data collecting instrument, it is highly important to
plan the transformation in this field accurately.
7. In the process of opening education programmes at both secondary school and higher education
level, it is vital to create and evaluate long-term projections obtained from Labour Market
Research and to plan accordingly.
8. In determining the occupations considered as future’s vocations and filling the vacancies in
these fields, it is necessary to fill obtained data accurately and share it with related institutions.
9. Cooperation and coordination among agencies which carry out supply and demand side
research (in Turkey, İŞKUR and TURKSTAT) should be increased with the aim of organising,
analysing and evaluating supply and demand side research of labour market as covering
complementary information.
10. It is considered that the data obtained from research reports can be used to determine the
vocation groups which will probably be unemployed in the future, and via preventive
counselling and orientation services, those people can be directed to different sectors and
occupations without being unemployed.
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11. In order to use artificial intelligence for estimating labour market variables, it is necessary to
design informatics infrastructure of related institutions / organisations and employment of
trained personnel in the field according to digital transformation.
12. It is seen that it is highly important to use developed software and train personnel to have a
good command of those software in order to analyse data set obtained from labour market
research in detail,
13. It is important to use research to understand recruitment behaviours and by following
recruitment potentials of employers and personnel mobility, provide specialised counselling
services through classifying employers.
14. It is considered that innovative practices such as training and recruitment of seasonal labour
force before it arises by monitoring job vacancies via artificial intelligence will come into
prominence.
15. It is highlighted that immigration factor affects labour market of the countries deeply and
information related to potential positions of immigrant workers in labour market can be
determined by labour market research.
16. It is considered that it will be useful to create user-friendly new indicators which are called as
“Labour Market Barometer” with the data obtained from labour market research and give
comparable and summary data related to current situation of the market from labour market
data, show the changes of the skills required by vocations and show current and future
employment.
17. In today’s world where diplomas are not functional as before in certificating vocational
knowledge and skills and the employees are expected to have knowledge more than one field,
it appears that determining systematically which skills are demanded during recruitment of job
vacancies will contribute to both the future of the vocations and the future of recruitment
system.
18. It is considered that bringing into use of data sets obtained from researches for researchers will
pave the way for the studies in this field, and will provide new findings, which may be important
for decision makers, through analysis to be made.
19. It is seen that choosing recyclable paper and similar materials used during field research and
making research process digital and ecological by eliminating use of paper entirely over time
has become a prominent tendency.
20. It is understood that conducting labour market research as sectoral based will help to understand
sectoral needs and their change over time.
21. It is set forth that integration and cooperation with Social Security Institutions is important and
it will be useful to use online systems in simplifying and confirming data received from
employers.
22. It is considered that the arrangements that will enable the relevant institutions to examine the
data in more depth in the fields they need when technology-supported interfaces in delivering
the data obtained from the researches to the relevant institutions and organizations is used.
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P.S: The presentations made during the workshop and other information can be reached through
the link below:
http://wapes.org/en/event/approaches-tackling-new-challenges-labour-market-role-labour-
market-research
