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Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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Page 1: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Appraisal

Prof. Francesc Robusté

CENIT

Washington DC, January 26, 2011

URBAN TRANSPORT

Page 2: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

2

PRESENTATION CONTENT

CENIT (Barcelona Tech)

KPI’s for urban mobility

Appraisal

Background of CENIT interesting for the WB

Page 3: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

3

Aim of CENIT: generation and transmission of knowledge about transportation

European Commission (DGTREN) Spanish DoT CEDEX Spanish Ministry of Education & Science Government of Catalonia

Catalan Traffic Service Barcelona City Council Metropolitan Transport of Barcelona (bus operator) Port of Barcelona Abertis

Center for Innovation in Transport (CENIT) created in 2001 (2011: 10 years of innovation)

Consortium Technical University of Catalonia (Barcelona Tech) + regional government

10% of public finance; 90% or turnover from competitive calls, companies and institutions

CENIT presentation

Page 4: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

4

60%

23%

8%

10%

43% Civil Engineers

Administration

CSc & technicians

BSc

Engineers

CENIT leads transport research in Spain and cooperates with international experts

83 % of staff are BSc and engineers18% of staff are PhD and teach at Barcelona Tech36% women

CENIT RDi in Transport: system, service, scientific perspective

Francesc Robusté Director of Transportation Dept.

Jaume BarcelóDirector of Mobility and ICT Dept.

Mateu TurróDirector of Transport Financing Dept.

Multidisciplinary and young team of 40 people

Scientific / quantitative approach Professional experience in implementations Social, energy and environmental awareness

CENIT presentation

Page 5: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

5

Papers published in prestigious journals:

– Transport Research parts A, B, C, D, E– Transportmetrica– Transportation Science– IEEE– Transportation Research Record

Continuous training and improvements with exchanges and post-doc stays and sabbaticals:

– University of California Berkeley– Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute– Leeds University

Research dissemination at both Spanish and international level:

– Transportation Research Board Congress– Pan-American Congress– World Congress on Transport Research– International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory– Spanish Transport Engineering Congress

Internationally renowned scientific research and dissemination

CENIT presentation

Page 6: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

6

Implementation of cutting-edge research in Barcelona with the Volvo’s Centre of Excellence for Future of Urban Transport (UC Berkeley):

– RetBus– Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram for traffic

International agreements between CENIT and other transport research centers:

– ITS center Tokyo– Urban Transport Systems Laboratory, EPFL, Lausanne– Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute– LET, Lyon– Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Bucaramanga

CENIT is member of the European Conference of Transports Research Institutes (ECTRI)

CENIT joins important initiatives and innovation projects in urban mobility at international level

CENIT presentation

Page 7: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

7

• XXIst century will likely be characterized by urban mobility• +50% of the world population lives in urban areas• Congestion problems: costs, accidents and climate change• Urban mobility has significant relation to GNP of a region

ICT bring emphasis in the operations and management: Intelligent Cities

Urban mobility is a key factor for the competitiveness of metropolitan regions

Tactical

Civil Industrial ICT

Strategic

Operational Systems’ approach for complexity: operations, economics, demand behavior, appraisal, regulation, sustainability, finance…

Urban mobility is complex

Page 8: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

8

Urban mobi-lity modes

Urban mobility modes: are they a partition ?

Cars - traffic (congestion)

Public Transport: bus, BRT, LRT, metro

Taxis

Freight distributions

Bicycles

Pedestrians

CENIT expertise

CENIT expertise

pedes-trian

bicycle car motor-cycle taxi bus

LRT metro commuterrail

Eco-mobility PV Transit

Rail

“BiCiNg” carsharing

BRT

HOV

shared / public

Page 9: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

9

Conjoint / coupled layout, operations and pricing (1)

KPI’s for Urban Mobility

City Structurehow we use space

Mobilityhow we move thru space

Accessibility

Network Vehicle Density

Yokohama

SFO

NairobiNet

wor

k F

low

Cities are genericUrban mobility is generic(systems approach)

Functional parameters to describe mobility

Page 10: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

10

Conjoint / coupled layout, operations and pricing (2)

KPI’s for Urban Mobility

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.250

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

Transit

Mix

1

1

CarStreet space

DemandAC PT

AC PC

$/q(PT) $/q(PC)

q(PC)q(PT)

Any investment improving the car network, gives higher generalized costs (equilibrium) for all the users (Mogridge’s Paradox)

According to vehicle footprint, street space,

demand and unit social costs, efficient mobility

supply can be provided

Page 11: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

11

Distribution of taxicab demand, revenues and supply according to hours

KPI’s for taxi

INGRESSOS SEGONS FRANJA HORÀRIA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

HORA

FEINER

DISSABTE

DIUMENGE

ISC dels diferents atributs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8F

acilitat d

e trobar

taxis

els

festius

Facilitat de trobar

taxis

per la n

it

Preu d

el

despla

çam

ent

Facilitat de trobar

taxis

a les p

arades

Info

rm

ació

del

recorregut

Facilitat de trobar

taxis

per la tarda

Facilitat de trobar

taxis

pel m

atí

Nete

ja d

el vehic

le

Am

abilitat del

conducto

r

Confo

rta

bilitat del

vehic

le

Form

a d

e c

onduir d

el

conducto

r

CSI = 5.9

OFERTA DE TAXIS A L'AMB

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

HORA

de

taxi

s

FEINERS

DISSABTE

DIUMENGE

Page 12: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

12

KPIs for evaluating Barcelona TAXI’s performance

• Accuracy of KPIs depends on the statistical significance of the taxi sample (37 out of 10,000)

• KPIs depend on many factors: time of day, taxi performance, zone, day of week, month…

• KPIs have been calculated for every hour of week

Taxi empty 1

Taxi empty 2

Startservice

Startservice

Endservice

Endservice

Service 1 Service 2

Hour i Hour i +1

TAXI j

KPI’s for taxi

Page 13: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

13

Key Performance Indicators :

• Gross income per hour• Services per hour• Distance in service• Distance “empty”• Time vacant• Time between services• Average service fare• Average service distance• Average service duration• Average speed• Annual kilometres• Annual gross income

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

Nom

bre

de c

arr

ere

s

Franja horària

Working dayaverage:1.78 services/h

Working dayaverage1.74 services/h

Time

Num

bero

f ser

vice

s

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

6h

-7h

7h

-8h

8h

-9h

9h

-10

h

10

h -1

1h

11

h -1

2h

12

h -1

3h

13

h -1

4h

14

h -1

5h

15

h -1

6h

16

h -1

7h

17

h -1

8h

18

h -1

9h

19

h -2

0h

20

h -2

1h

21

h -2

2h

22

h -2

3h

23

h -0

h

0h

-1h

1h

-2h

2h

-3h

3h

-4h

4h

-5h

5h

-6h

Inco

me

pe

r h

ou

r (

€)

Tim

e b

etw

ee

n s

erv

ice

s (m

in)

time between services

annual average time

Income per hour

A

B

C

Indicator 2007 2009

Income per hour 19.42 € 17.65 €

Number of services per hour

2.19 services

1.88 services

Average service time 13.65 min 12.56 min

KPI’s for taxi

KPIs for evaluating Barcelona TAXI’s performance

Page 14: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

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• How much should a taxi driver earn? • Our methodology calculates:

– Costs:

– Annual Income

Diesel comsumptionMainteinance costsParkingAmortization...+Salary A basic salary is

included in the definition of costs

The number of km per hour and year is the main indicator to calculate costs

Profitability:Return On Equity adapted to taxi owners.The asset is the taxi license.

The “Reasonable Profitability” is a orientative value given by the Central Spanish Bank for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME)

2009 results:• Annual average incomme: 42,379 €• Annual average costs (with salary): 36,175 €

• Benefits: 6,204 € • Desired benefits to reach a “Reasonable

Profitability”: 6,484 €

Basic information to manage Supply-Fare issues

KPI’s for taxi

“Reasonable business” profitability

Page 15: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

15

KPIs for PUBLIC TRANSPORT in Barcelona Metropolitan Area

TAI: Territorial Accessibility Indicator

SAI: Service Accessibility Indicator

IQI: Internal Quality Indicator

GSI: Global Service Indicator

Comfort

Frequency

Bus-stops density

RQI: Route Quality Indicator Speed

Indicators Attributes

KPI’s for transit

Page 16: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

16

TAIm=22,7 bus-stops/km2

C=0,61

RQIm= 11,7 km/hCV=0,10

KPI’s for transit

KPIs for PUBLIC TRANSPORT in Barcelona Metropolitan Area

Page 17: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

17

OBJETIVE INDICATORS

Objective and perceived KPIs for traffic congestion characterization

10*24

11

24

11

itit

n

i

itititit

n

i

IHL

NCIHLIOC

10

24

11

24

11

itt

n

i

ititt

n

i

IH

IHIOAD

10

1

1

i

n

i

diai

n

i

L

LIOAR

Objetive indicator of network effects (IOAR)

10

24

24

11

nIOAT

itt

n

i

Indicator of temporal effects (IOAT)

Indicator of demand effects (IOAD)

Objetive Congestion indicator (IOC)

Indicator of intensity of demand impact (IOID)

24

24

11

n

NCIOID

ititt

n

i

Indicator of topology

eqrkmhabArea

lenghtRoadI *

/000.20

_log10

2

KPI’s for traffic - congestion

Page 18: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

18

SUBJECTIVE INDICATORS

Subjective indicator of demand effect (ISAD)

Subjective indicator of temporal effects (ISAT)

Subjective indicator of intensity of impact demand (ISID)

Subjective indicator of network effects (ISAR)

SURVEYS

KPI’s for traffic - congestion

Objective and perceived KPIs for traffic congestion characterization

Barcelona Madrid Sevilla Valencia Bilbao0123456789

1.79 2.01 1.76 1.55 1.47

5.99 6.06 6.65.27 5.89

IOC-ISC

ISC

IOC

Page 19: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

19

Implemented policies for improving urban freight distribution

KPI’s for freight distribution

Page 20: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

20

Urban freight distribution operations and use of L/U parking

KPI’s for freight distribution

OPERACIONS SETMANALS/HA

Més de 350 (42)250 a 350 (33)150 a 250 (49)

50 a 150 (68)Menys de 50 (46)

(10)

OPERACIONS DE DISTRIBUCIÓDE MERCADERIES

Page 21: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

21

Loading and unloading parking space deficit in Barcelona

KPI’s for freight distribution

Page 22: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

22

European Parliament, 2010 (under publication)

Future of Urban Transport

Most of the innovation in urban mobility will come from the re-engineering of old concepts with the help of ICT: success or failure of implementation will depend on a package of ‘soft’ management measures that involve understanding stakeholder behavior and managing the system in an integrated, efficient and dynamic (real-time) way, rather than on ‘hard’ physical infrastructure or new vehicles. New energy sources for vehicles are tactical changes; however, the physical or functional aspects of overcoming a certain distance at a certain speed will remain.

Page 23: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

23

Objective: give a city a “grade” about mobility and follow it

Towards a KPI of Urban Mobility (1)

Attributes (some measured):• Unit social cost of overcoming a distance ($/pax-km)

− Mobility behavior patterns− Land use patterns and city planning issues

• Space distribution• Time distribution• Modal split• Safety• Reliability• Sustainability• (Energy)• (Emissions)• (ICT technology)• Social equity: income, gender, MRP (universal accessibility)• Perception (weights from local surveys)

Policy objectives?

Measure attributes

Decide some weights

Aggregate Mobility Indicator(similar to CSI in transit)

Page 24: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

24

Objective: give a city a “grade” about mobility and follow it

Towards a KPI of Urban Mobility (2)

CSI in

transit

Page 25: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

25

What is the “optimal” transport mode for a given corridor?

KPI for a corridor

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Viatgers/dia

Mili

on

s d

'eu

ros

Autobús Ferrocarril

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Viatgers/dia

Mili

ons

d'eu

ros

Autobús Ferrocarril

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

660

720

780

840

900

Viatgers/dia

Mili

on

s d

'eu

ros

Autobús Ferrocarril Vehicle Privat

Page 26: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

26

• Socio-economic appraisal of transport projects:

Political input and/or decisions

Many stakeholders and interests

Dealing with an investment proposal

Appraisal (CBA + MCA integration): our approach

“In front of huge problems, let’s bring small solutions”

• In front of a complex system with many stakeholders and cross-perspectives, we claim for:

Simple and transparent appraisal methods

We should underline the process more than the algorithm or a particular outcome

Appraisal

Avoid black boxes or apparently sophisticated methods with leaks

Page 27: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

27

Financial analysis Hierarchy (AHP, nested logit)

Many options that are complementary

ELEMENTS

Multicriteria Anal.

Weights (Delphi)

Partial evaluation

Goal programming Multi-objective programming Group DSS

F2

F1

ENGINEERS

ECONOMISTS POLITICIANS

PLANNERS Qualitative Over-classification (Electre) Utility: U:Em [0,1]

PARTIAL EVALUATION E’ij

ALTERNATIVES (n)

CRITERIA (m)

CBA Costs Benefits

Appraisal

Risk analysis

Sensitivity analysis

Page 28: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

28

Contribution to transport projects appraisal

• Effect-stakeholders matrix, applicable to several typologies of transport projects (highways, ports, airports, railways, freight centers and urban projects) to appraise their distributional effects

• Visualization of all the effects: transfers, winners, losers...

• Active cells• Cell zooming• Relevant cells• Tool for efficient and transparent decision making

Appraisal

• Mix: benchmarking

Page 29: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

29

OT

HE

R

MO

DE

S

Infr

astr

uctu

re

CELL CLASSIFICATION

STAKEHOLDERS

USERSTRANSPORT SERVICE

OPERATORS

INS

UR

AN

CE

CO

MP

AN

IES

CONTRACTORS AND SUPPLIERS

NON-USERS (external)

GOVERNMENT

EFFECTS

LO

CA

L

RE

GIO

NA

L-

(Cata

lan G

overn

ment)

Supers

tructu

re

Ele

ctr

ific

ation a

nd s

ignalli

ng

Rolli

ng s

tock

LO

CA

L

ALTERNATIVE MODES

EU

Passenger_

FG

C

Passenger_

RE

NF

E

Bus

Car

FG

C

RE

NF

E

Bus o

pera

tor

RE

GIO

NA

L

NA

TIO

NA

L -

(S

panis

h G

overn

ment)

RAIL

USER SERVICE

FaresTravel timeReliability of serviceComfortSafety/Accidents - (financial/economic)

Consumer surplus (new traffic)

RAIL LINES

OPERATION

DIRECTVehicle operating costs

INDIRECT

Operating personnelFacilities operations Overhead management (headquarters)Subsidies

SuperstructureStations and terminalsGarage and repair facilities

Taxes

Fuel and energy taxesTaxes

MAINTENANCE (Routine)

Infrastructure+superstructureRolling stock

Rolling stock (vehicles)Residual value

ASSETS

INVEST-MENT

Land value

Infrastructure

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

ENVIRON-MENTAL

NoiseAir pollutionClimate changeUse of space

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

SE MATRIX FOR FGC LINE EXTENSION IN SABADELL

Incidence matrix (effects-stakeholders)

INCIDENCE MATRIX

Appraisal

Page 30: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

30

Appraisal process – Methodology flowchart

• Effects vs. stakeholders

• Incidence matrix (SE)

• Active cells

• Cell expansion

• Transfers: cancel out in each row

• Relevant cells Cell coloring

• Segment of preference (f + se)

• NPV by rows and columns

• Sensitivity and risk analysis

Appraisal

Page 31: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

31

Incidence matrix – Active cells

OT

HE

R

MO

DE

S

1_1 1_2 1_3 1_5 1_6 1_7 1_8 1_15 1_16 1_172_1 2_2 2_3 2_43_1 3_2 3_3 3_44_1

5_1 5_2 5_3 5_4 5_5 5_6 5_7 5_8 5_13 5_14 5_15 5_16 5_17

6_1 6_2 6_3 6_47_4 7_5 7_6 7_7 7_8

8_5 8_6 8_7 8_89_5 9_6 9_7 9_810_5 10_6 10_711_5 11_6 11_7 11_15 11_16 11_17

12_4 12_5 12_6 12_7 12_1713_5 13_6 13_7 13_17

14_5 14_13 14_15 14_16 14_17

15_5 15_9 15_15 15_16 15_17 15_1816_5 16_10 16_11 16_15 16_16 16_17 16_1817_5 17_10 17_11 17_15 17_16 17_17 17_1818_5 18_12 18_15 18_16 18_17 18_1819_5 19_12 19_15 19_16 19_17 19_1820_521_5 21_9 21_10 21_11 21_12 21_15 21_16 21_1722_5 22_9 22_10 22_1723_5 23_12 23_17

24_1325_13 25_14

26_1427_1328_13 28_14

CELL CLASSIFICATION

STAKEHOLDERS

USERSTRANSPORT SERVICE

OPERATORS

INS

UR

AN

CE

CO

MP

AN

IES

CONTRACTORS AND SUPPLIERS

NON-USERS (external)

GOVERNMENT

RAIL LINES RAIL

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Sup

erst

ruct

ure

Car

FG

C

RE

NF

E

Bus

ope

rato

r

LOC

AL

RE

GIO

NA

L- (

Cat

alan

Gov

ernm

ent)

NA

TIO

NA

L -

(Spa

nish

Gov

ern.

)

EU

Ele

ctrif

icat

ion

and

sign

allin

g

Rol

ling

stoc

k

LOC

AL

RE

GIO

NA

L

Pas

seng

er_

FG

C

Pas

seng

er_

RE

NF

E

BusCost/benefit

SE MATRIX FOR FGC LINE EXTENSION IN SABADELL

(Active cells)

ALTERNATIVE MODES

USER SERVICE

FaresTravel timeReliability of serviceComfort

Safety/Accidents - (financial/economic)

Consumer surplus (new traffic)

OPERATION

DIRECTVehicle operating costsOperating personnelFacilities operations

INDIRECT

Overhead management (headquarters)SubsidiesFuel and energy taxesTaxes

ASSETS

INVEST-MENT

Land value

InfrastructureSuperstructureStations and terminalsGarage and repair facilitiesRolling stock (vehicles)Residual valueTaxes

MAINTE-NANCE (Routine)

Infrastructure+superstructureRolling stock

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

ENVIRON-MENTAL

Noise Air pollutionClimate changeUse of space

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

Appraisal

Page 32: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Urban Transport

32

Incidence matrix – Cell expansion

OT

HE

R

MO

DE

S

1_1 1_2 1_3 1_5 1_6 1_7 1_8 1_15 1_16 1_172_1 2_2 2_3 2_43_1 3_2 3_3 3_44_1

5_1 5_2 5_3 5_4 5_5 5_6 5_7 5_8 5_13 5_14 5_15 5_16 5_17

6_1 6_2 6_3 6_47_4 7_5 7_6 7_7 7_8

8_5 8_6 8_7 8_89_5 9_6 9_7 9_810_5 10_6 10_711_5 11_6 11_7 11_15 11_16 11_17

12_4 12_5 12_6 12_7 12_1713_5 13_6 13_7 13_17

14_5 14_13 14_15 14_16 14_17

15_5 15_9 15_15 15_16 15_17 15_1816_5 16_10 16_11 16_15 16_16 16_17 16_1817_5 17_10 17_11 17_15 17_16 17_17 17_1818_5 18_12 18_15 18_16 18_17 18_1819_5 19_12 19_15 19_16 19_17 19_1820_521_5 21_9 21_10 21_11 21_12 21_15 21_16 21_1722_5 22_9 22_10 22_1723_5 23_12 23_17

24_1325_13 25_14

26_1427_1328_13 28_14

CELL CLASSIFICATION

STAKEHOLDERS

USERSTRANSPORT SERVICE

OPERATORS

INS

UR

AN

CE

CO

MP

AN

IES

CONTRACTORS AND SUPPLIERS

NON-USERS (external)

GOVERNMENT

RAIL LINES RAIL

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Sup

erst

ruct

ure

Car

FG

C

RE

NF

E

Bus

ope

rato

r

LOC

AL

RE

GIO

NA

L- (

Cat

alan

Gov

ernm

ent)

NA

TIO

NA

L -

(Spa

nish

Gov

ern.

)

EU

Ele

ctrif

icat

ion

and

sign

allin

g

Rol

ling

stoc

k

LOC

AL

RE

GIO

NA

L

Pas

seng

er_

FG

C

Pas

seng

er_

RE

NF

E

BusCost/benefit

SE MATRIX FOR FGC LINE EXTENSION IN SABADELL

(Active cells)

ALTERNATIVE MODES

USER SERVICE

FaresTravel timeReliability of serviceComfort

Safety/Accidents - (financial/economic)

Consumer surplus (new traffic)

OPERATION

DIRECTVehicle operating costsOperating personnelFacilities operations

INDIRECT

Overhead management (headquarters)SubsidiesFuel and energy taxesTaxes

ASSETS

INVEST-MENT

Land value

InfrastructureSuperstructureStations and terminalsGarage and repair facilitiesRolling stock (vehicles)Residual valueTaxes

MAINTE-NANCE (Routine)

Infrastructure+superstructureRolling stock

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

ENVIRON-MENTAL

Noise Air pollutionClimate changeUse of space

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

ACTORS CEL·LA: 1_1

USUARIS

Financera LÍNIES FERROVIÀRIES

VIATGERS _ FGC

EFECTE DESCRIPCIÓ:

SERVEI A L’USUARI

VAN de la tarifa creixent que els usuaris han de pagar. Normalment cal classificar els usuaris entre existents, captats i generats.

CÀLCUL:

[∑i tarifai (€/viatger) x distribució tarifària (%)] x Trànsit (trens/dia) x Factor d’ocupació (viatgers/tren) x 365 dies/any

VALORS:

Tarifes i distribució tarifària:

Tipus de bitllet Tarifa (€/trajecte)

(2009) Distribució tarifària*

(2009) Bitllet senzill 1.89 9.85% Targeta T-10 0.99 53.79% TargetaT-50/30 0.73 16.61% Targeta T-MES 0.60 5.04% Targeta T-DIA 1.63 0.03% Targeta T-TRIMESTRE 0.65 0.94% Targeta T-JOVE 0.49 3.10% Targeta T-FAMILIAR 0.68 1.43% Targeta de pensionista 0.26 0.32% Targeta de família nombrosa (50/30) 0.83 1.07% Bitllets amb descompte (pensionista, família nombrosa, minusvàlid) 0.76 5.72% Abonaments i bitllets especials 0.66 2.13%

Tarifa mitjana ponderada 0.97 - Font: Dades de FGC (2009) * Distribució tarifària a la línia Barcelona-Vallès d’FGC l’any 2009

Increment de la tarifa = 3% (IPC + 1%)

Creixement del trànsit (trens/dia): Escenari Do-minimum: sense canvis en la quantitat de trens per dia (155

trens/dia) Escenari amb projecte: increment de la freqüència (de 6 a 10 circulacions/h

–trens cada 6 minuts–) en hora punta i trens cada 6’-7.5’ en hora normal, fins a arribar a un total de 130 trens/dia i 250 trens/dia per a trajectes interns (metro intern) i externs (metro Vallès), respectivament.

Creixement d’usuaris (usuaris/dia): Escenari Do-minimum: els usuaris incrementen al mateix ritme que l’IPC

(2%). Escenari amb projecte: increment considerable durant els 3 primers anys

des de l’entrada en servei del perllongament de la línia. Posteriorment, l’increment s’alenteix i s’alinea amb l’increment de l’IPC (2%).

Factor d’ocupació: 151 usuaris per tren (font: dades reals d’FGC) durant el primer any. Anys posteriors: consideració de l’increment d’usuaris (2%) i del nombre de trens per dia, excepte pel període 2012-2014, en què es preveu un major increment en el nombre d’usuaris d’FGC, degut a l’increment d’usuaris captats de RENFE, de l’autobús i del cotxe cap a FGC i degut també a l’increment en usuaris generats.

COMENTARIS:

TA

RIF

ES

Les tarifes quantificades en aquest apartat inclouen transport, assegurança i taxes (IVA, per exemple). El total de les tarifes addicionals que han de pagar els usuaris (un número negatiu) ha de quedar reflectiu com un valor positiu a la cel·la corresponent als ingressos addicionals pels operadors i taxes addicionals pel govern nacional (on també cal afegir-hi les taxes de RENFE i les tarifes dels bitllets d’autobús).

Appraisal

Page 33: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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Incidence matrix - NPV by rows and columns

OT

HE

R

MO

DE

S

-42 20 22 40 -19 -20 0 0-113 59 39 68

0 1 0 0380 0 0 25 0 0 0 9

23

11 0 0 0 -11 07 -2 0 0 -5

0 0 0 0

0 7 -7

0-58 61

0

800 0

12,49 64,815,6%

0

USER SERVICE

Rolling stock (vehicles)

Safety/Accidents - (financial/economic)

Reliability of serviceComfort

Infrastructure

OPERATION

Operating personnel

Overhead management (headquarters)

Fuel and energy taxesTaxes

SuperstructureStations and terminals

-2

-25Garage and repair facilities

RE

GIO

NA

L -

(Cat

alan

Gov

ernm

ent)

NPV (cells x 1 M current €)P

asse

nger

_ F

GC

Pas

seng

er_

RE

NF

E

Bus

Car

FG

C

RAIL

INCIDENCE MATRIX FOR LINE UPGRADING

Rolling stock

Consumer surplus (new traffic)

Subsidies

Fares

LOC

AL

Travel time

Facilities operations

INDIRECT

Vehicle operating costs

1

ENVIRON-MENTAL

NoiseAir pollutionClimate change

TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

ALTERNATIVE MODES

MAINTENANCE (Routine)

Residual valueTaxes

DIRECT

19,80 38,98IRR

ASSETS

INVEST-MENT

Land value

Use of space

EXTERNAL EFFECTS

NP

V T

OT

AL

per

EF

FE

CT

8,69

NPV TOTAL per STAKEHOLDER 432,29 -454,36 15,60

-3Infrastructure+superstructure

CELL CLASSIFICATION - SABADELL

STAKEHOLDERS

USERSTRANSPORT SERVICE

OPERATORS

INS

UR

AN

CE

CO

MP

AN

IES

CONTRACTORS AND SUPPLIERS

NON-USERS (external)

GOVERNMENT

RAIL LINES

Cost/benefit

NA

TIO

NA

L -

(Spa

nish

Gov

ern.

)

EU

RE

NF

E

Bus

ope

rato

r

RE

GIO

NA

L

LOC

AL

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Sup

erst

ruct

ure

Ele

ctrif

icat

ion

and

sign

allin

g

Rol

ling

stoc

k

285

-40 0 0

00

4

17-338

3

416,45

-13,74

-346,59

0

0

• Distributional effects:

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Page 34: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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• Applicable to all transport projects typologies: (even to non-transport related projects)

Railway projects

Highway projects

Port projects

Airport projects

Improvement of an existing line Line restoration Traffic jams elimination Line electrification Cross-level elimination Line extension

Line reopening Line closure New HSL Investments in interoperability Improvement of rail terminals Connections to ports, airports and terminals

Road pricing, new bus services, capacity expansion, safety...

Port enlargement, concession, …

Construction/expansion of terminal, baggage handling…

Strengths and transportability

• Comprehension of distributional effects: Impacts and benefits for the different users & society

Appraisal

Urban projects Construction/expansion of terminal, baggage handling…

META, GESTA

Page 35: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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• Application to tramway and metro projects financed by EIB:

DSS for financial acceptability screening

Appraisal

- Analysis of financed projects- Continent / areas- Country- Mode- Project types- Detect outliers

A DSS for financial screening

Page 36: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

AppraisalGraphical tools in MCA (1)

w1

w2

w3

w1 + w2 + w3 =1

A1

A2

A3

w1w2

w3 A4

A5

A6

A7

A8

A1

A2

A3

w1w2

w3

36

Page 37: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Appraisal

37

Área(Aj)1

ejk

k

1

0

50

100

150

200

Carreteras

Autopistas

Aeropuerto pasajeros

FC convencional

FC alta velocidad

Aeropuerto mercancías

GHP (from AHP)

Graphical tools in MCA (2)

Page 38: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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Background of CENIT perhaps interesting for the WB

URBAN MOB ILITY

Page 39: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

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Background of CENIT perhaps interesting for the WB

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AIRPORTS

LOGISTICS : Physical Distribution, SCM, eLogistics, Logistic platforms, Logistic Activity Zones LAZ in ports, many-to-many distribution optimization

APPRAISALAIRPORT SYSTEM CAPACITY

AIRPORTACCESS

Guidelines for logistics centers and LAZ in ports

LAZ, LC & training in Mediterra-nean (EIB)

Page 40: Appraisal Prof. Francesc Robusté CENIT Washington DC, January 26, 2011 URBAN TRANSPORT

Appraisal

Thank you for your attention!

Prof. Francesc Robusté [email protected]

Dr. Sergi Saurí [email protected]

Dr. Marta Sánchez-Borràs [email protected]