Applications-Focused Research on Applications-Focused Research on the African Weather & Climate the African Weather & Climate

SystemsSystems

UCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, BoulderUCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, BoulderDecember 19December 19thth 2006 2006

Fredrick SemazziFredrick Semazzi[http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu][http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu]

North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University

Outline of the TalkOutline of the Talk

(i)(i) Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of the the Variability of the African Climate – Nile Variability of the African Climate – Nile

BasinBasin

(ii)(ii) ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research (West (West Africa)Africa)

(iii) (iii) RRelated activities and potential partners elated activities and potential partners

OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF THE PROPOSED PROJECTTHE PROPOSED PROJECT

Nile Basin ClimateNile Basin Climate

Variability ProblemVariability Problem

River Nile

Lake Victoria

… … regional significance…regional significance…

The Nile Basin water The Nile Basin water supports about 300 million peoplesupports about 300 million people from 10 African countries from 10 African countries

Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin … the … the "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave… "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave…

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (The Associated Press) - African countries could face water wars if the power of their mighty rivers isn't properly harnessed and shared

KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : Uganda, 27 millionUganda, 27 million … crippling power shortages … crippling power shortages have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought. River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought.

AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… at 27,000 at 27,000 square miles, the size of Irelandsquare miles, the size of Ireland, Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the , Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has dropped fast, at least six feet in the dropped fast, at least six feet in the past three yearspast three years, and by as much as a , and by as much as a half-inch a dayhalf-inch a day this year…the report, by U.S.-based this year…the report, by U.S.-based Water Resources and Energy Management International… Water Resources and Energy Management International… a further dramatic drop in a further dramatic drop in Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100 Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100 million Egyptians, Sudanese and othersmillion Egyptians, Sudanese and others

CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the contribution of climate variability to the regional water problemcontribution of climate variability to the regional water problem

Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam ComplexComplex: : UgandaUganda

THE AGREED CURVE THE AGREED CURVE

Dramatic Drop in Lake Dramatic Drop in Lake Victoria LevelVictoria Level ENSO-IOZMclimate variability

or excessive release?

“no trend” pre-1961

lake levels

excessive release?

Drought?

Drought …YES!Drought …YES!

Figure A–1: Actual and Agreed Curve–prescribed total releases at Nalubaale and Kiira Dams for September 2004 to early March 2006. It can be seen that the actual releases were far greater than those prescribed by the Agreed Curve.  Indeed, during the period September 2004 to March 2006, the actual releases were 194% of those prescribed by the agreed curve: almost double (Daniel Kull)

Excessive Release-YES!

RegCM3-POM coupled model lake surface temperature & rainfall; Anyah & Semazzi (2006)

“no trend” pre-1961 lake

levels

97-98 El Nino

Surface temperature, RH & winds; RegCM3 model verification against MODIS & NCEP (Onol & Semazzi, 2006).

MODIS (satellite) NCEP Reanalysis

RegCM3 RCM RegCM3 RCM

1961-62IO Warming

downscaling

Lake Victoria levels; gauge at source of the River Nile & satell ite radar altimeter data from USDS/NASA/UMD at http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/

Water Balance model

(Tate et al, 2004)

Global NCEP January Temperature Anomaly Pattern, 2006 minus average of 2001-2005

downscaling

10.6

10.8

11

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13

13.2

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

modeled lake level (1 year prediction)

Actual lake level (Dec)

Lake Victoria Lake Level PredictionsLake Victoria Lake Level Predictions

Qin=Inflow

P=Precipitation over lake

E=Evaporation over lake

A=Area of the lake

(based on modified Tate et al (2004) method(based on modified Tate et al (2004) method

Drifters for surface currents (@ 2k) + boats for relocation & synoptic measurements

ADCP: Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles (3 @ $30K)

CTD: Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (3 @ 10K)

Land-based temporary meteorological stations

Preliminary Plan for Ship TransectsPreliminary Plan for Ship Transects(>2 weeks) (>2 weeks)

Ship transects

Summary of Nile Basin StudySummary of Nile Basin Study

Lake circulation is characterized by two counter-Lake circulation is characterized by two counter-rotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry rotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry simulations)simulations)

Coupling of the lake is important for required details Coupling of the lake is important for required details of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in the calculations for the lake levels & other the calculations for the lake levels & other applicationsapplications

A multiscale approach is requiredA multiscale approach is required

Framework can play a major role in defining required Framework can play a major role in defining required model accuracymodel accuracy

NOAA-ISETInterdisciplinary Scientific Environmental Technology

Cooperative Science Center

Partner Institutions

Thrust area ISensor science and technology:Basic research,

Sensor technologydevelopment

Thrust area IIGlobal Observing systems:

numerical and physicalresearch

Thrust area IIIData mining &

Fusion and geospatial data models

Understanding Climate Change

Development of new sensors and lidars systems for more accurate climate analysis.

Development of algorithms for retrieving data from a wide range of sensor networks.

Development of web based data exploratory algorithms for determining the suitability of global data sets .Development of in-depth signal detection techniques, which exploit recent research developments in multivariate stream data mining.

Improve functionality of integrated optical sensor packages.Provide algorithms for atmospheric monitoring of traces gases. Mine multiple data sets from multiple sensor platforms.Develop methods, which combine the benefits of physical models and statistical analysis for sensor data fusion.

RESEARCH THRUST AREAS

Use high resolution imager data and historical correlationsSunphotometer c

MISSIONTrain and educate students in NOAA

scientific areas and develop technology

and analysis techniques of global

data sets for improved understanding

of climate change.

Industrial Partners Simpson Weather Associates Arete AssociatesSAS Institute Inc. Vexcel Corporation: Remote Sensing

Government Partners USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service East National Technology Support CenterBrookhaven National LaboratoryNC Department of Environment and Natural Resources Center for Geographic Information and Analysis SURA: Southeastern Universities Research Association

GOALS(1) Conduct research to develop new sensors for profiling atmospheric trace constituents and meteorological variables, water quality sensors and integrated

sensor packages designed for deployment in the economically important coastal regions.(2) Conduct research using both numerical and empirical methods on the analysis of observing systems and use remote sensing to characterize and specify

significant factors affecting tropical storms to provide better-forecast models and predictions. (3) Develop data-fusion techniques, develop sensor networks and multiagent and grid computing to support implementation of the analytic

techniques. (4) Develop capacity in research in NOAA scientific areas within the lead and partner institutions, to be able to train and educate students in NOAA scientific

areas. (5) Establish NOAA-ISET graduate and undergraduate scholarships at all partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.(6) Develop a concentration in atmospheric sciences and climate modeling within the Ph.D. program in Energy and Environmental Sciences during the first year

of the ISET Center.(7) Establish an undergraduate degree program in Earth System Science at NCA&T and some partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.

University Partners: University of Alaska Southeast (UAS) California State University-Fresno (CSU-Fresno)City University of New York (CUNY)Fisk University (FU)University of North Carolina at Pembroke (UNCP)North Carolina State University (NCSU)University of Minnesota (UM)

Phases of Hurricane Development

Americas Phase Ocean Phase

African Phase

Inla

nd F

lood

ing P

has

e

Hurr

ican

eTr

opic

al S

torm

Trop

ical

Dep

ress

ion

East

erly

Wav

e

Dis

turb

ance

Oro

gra

phic

Cyc

longen

esis

Hurricane

TC

Depression

African Waves Landfall

??

?

Understanding Transition Understanding Transition Phases of Hurricane Phases of Hurricane

DevelopmentDevelopment

Unique contribution

?

Storm

Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages among hurricane developmental phases and response to climate changeamong hurricane developmental phases and response to climate change––Diagnostic MethodsDiagnostic Methods

Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - RegCM3.RegCM3.

WRF WRF individualindividual Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions – various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions – WRF/HYCOMWRF/HYCOM for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortex- for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).tracking algorithm).

ALL-domain ALL-domain seasonalseasonal simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions (if additional support (if additional support can be identified)can be identified)--WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).

Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR with different combinations of observational data. with different combinations of observational data. WRF + 4DVARWRF + 4DVAR

Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development (If funds are identified)(If funds are identified)

Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing climatic conditions. climatic conditions. Extend the HTDF to include (intensity, direction, speed information)- HAM3d Watershed coupled model – single CPU

African Easterly Wave Track Axis

LL

HH HH

LL

TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

African Easterly Wave Track Axis

LL

HH HH

LL

TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting; 1800 km wide measurement

swath; Generally results in twice

per day coverage over a given geographic

region.

Current date and time: 05:32 GMT,

Nov 4 2006

SEAWiFS Ocean Color: Chlorophyll

Current date and time: 05:32 GMT, Nov 4 2006

… difficult to interpret …

Our new method is based on the identification of Our new method is based on the identification of “hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track “hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track

Density Function”Density Function”

),(),( jj

j ttxxWtxC where

tx S

t

S

xtxW

22 coscos),( when ,

2

xS

x

2

tS

t

0),( txW ,otherwise.

HTDF EOFs: (a) HTDF space field associated with EOF 1 (30.47%), (b) HTDF space field associated with EOF2 (12.89%) and (c) HTDF space field associated with EOF3 (9.72%)

EOF1

EOF3

EOF2

• Regions economic unionsRegions economic unions

• ACMAD (Western Africa) - ECOWAS

• ICPAC (Eastern Africa) – IGAD

• DMCH (Southern Africa) – SADC

• UniversitiesUniversities

• University of Ghana, Nairobi, Capetown, Cairo• InternationalInternational

• WCRP/VACS – “Clearing House”

• WMO/RA I

• WMO/CLIPS

•British Africa Initiative

• Canadian Africa Initiative

• Scandanavian Africa Initiative• OtherOther

• AMMA, IRI, World Bank, SSA-NSF