Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management: A Glass Half Empty?

Thomas Spies

USDA Forest Service

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Landscapes• What are they?

• Why important?

• Management Applications

• Challenges

• Opportunities

What are landscapes?

• Spatially Heterogeneous ecosystems

• 102 ~ 105 ha; part of spatial hierarchy

• Human influences

• Species and process dependent

Forest Plantations on SiuslawNational Forest

Why Landscapes?

• Flows of species and processes across landscapes

• Stand/patch level constrained by landscape level

• High variability in forests

• Forests provide multiple and sometimes conflicting ecosystem services

Sink

SourceSink

Sink

SinkSource

Sink

Sink

Sink

Cold air drainage in mountains affects expected changes in temperature under

climate change

KnowlesCreekSweet

Creek

< 5%10%15%>15%

Debris Flow Delivery Probability

We’ve Excelled at Landscape Planning

Deschutes Forest Plan Allocations NWFP Allocations

But, that was the Easy Part

Challenges for Further Application Landscape Ecology in Forest

Management

• Dynamics (e.g Disturbance and Climate)

• Reference condition/Goals

• Multi-owner Landscapes

• Uncertainty and flexibility

< 10

11 - 40

41 - 80

81 - 200> 200

Stand Age

Three CenturiesOf SimulatedPre-ColumbianFire History inOregon CoastRange

By Nonaka Wimberly and Spies

Dynamics

Historical Range of VariabilityOregon Coast Range

% of Landscape

Early Seral: 10-25%

Old Growth: 35-60%

% of Landscape

Pro

babi

lity

Area and Aggregation

Pat

ch P

roxi

mity

and

Sha

pe C

ompl

exity

NOW

Can We Go Back? Forests 200-450 years old in the Coast Range

Based on Nonaka and Spies 2005

100 yrCurrent Policy Scenario

100 yr

Wildfire Scenario

250 y

400 y150 y

Historical Range of Variation

Climate Change

.

Littell et al. 2009

Douglas-fir at risk under future climateRange of Alaska Yellow Cedar

HRV

•Waypoint rather than Endpoint – Reference point for navigation to

destination

•Other Waypoints– Future Range of Variability

– Social Acceptability

Reference Conditions/Goals

Future Range of Variation (FRV)

Estimated range of ecological conditions in future given climate change, land-use change

and social acceptability

Resilience Instead of RestorationEvolving Scientific Perspectives

• Engineering Resilience

• Ecological Resilience

• Socio-EcologicalResilience

Based on Folke 2006

Met

ric

Metric 1

Met

ric

2

Metric 1

Met

ric

2

Time

Multi-ownership Landscapes

Owner Policy Goals Strategy

USFS and BLM

State of Oregon

Private. Industrial and Non-Industrial

NewForestplans

Forest

Practices

Act

NW Forest Plan Forest Plans

Healthy forestsIndigenous speciesAbundant timberT&E speciesPriority to growth and harvest of treesProtect environmentand fish/wildlife

LS/OG T&E species Aquatic Commodities

Structure-based management

Hab. Cons. PlanRetain trees in clearcuts,

Streamside protection rules

Reserves Matrix Gr-Tree retention AMA

Coastal Oregon

Multi-ownership Landscapes

Vegetation Classes1996 – Initial Period

Base PolicyGNN

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2046 Base Policy

Simulated

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2096

Base PolicySimulated

Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Potential changes in 100 years as % of initial conditions

++

+

Percent Change

Policy Scenarios

2. Increased Green Tree Retention on Private Lands

3. No Restoration thinning on Federal Lands

1. Base policy What the managers are doing now

Northern Spotted Owl (H9) HCI > 36--All Owners

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100

Time

He

cta

res

0305 Base 0305 NFT 0305 LT3

Western Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100

Time

Hec

tare

s

Base NFT LT3

Olive-sided Flycatcher (H6) HCI > 19

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100

Time

Hecta

res

Base NFT LT3

Current policy

Green tree retention

No Fed thinning

Potential Effects of Alternative

Scenarios on Bird Habitat

Northern Spotted Owl

Western Blue Bird

Olive-sided Flycatcher

Applications of Landscape Ecology in Forest Management

• What has worked?– Spatial pattern through

allocation and zoning

– Recognizing process for some species/components

• What has not yet worked well?– Implementing dynamics-

based approaches

– Revising allocations based on new knowledge

– Working across boundaries

– Adaptive management

Changing Landscape Management Plans is Scary

NWFPBlue River Plan Social Reaction

Barriers to Implementation of Landscape Concepts

• Social/Political

• Economic

• Institutional

Uncertainty: Not an Excuse for Inaction

• Embrace it • Landscape management

as experiment

• Learn and adapt in each successive cycle of management.

• Scenario planning and dialog

Scenario Planning

Opportunities

• New technologies to visualize landscapes and scenarios

• Collaboratives may increase range of social acceptability

• Implement on small landscapes and less controversial projects