Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management : A Glass Half Empty?

PowerPoint Presentation

Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management: A Glass Half Empty?Thomas SpiesUSDA Forest ServicePacific Northwest Research Station1LandscapesWhat are they?Why important?Management ApplicationsChallengesOpportunities

What are landscapes?Spatially Heterogeneous ecosystems102 ~ 105 ha; part of spatial hierarchyHuman influencesSpecies and process dependent

Forest Plantations on SiuslawNational Forest

Wedge tail eagle and stage beetle3

Why Landscapes?Flows of species and processes across landscapesStand/patch level constrained by landscape level High variability in forests Forests provide multiple and sometimes conflicting ecosystem services

SinkSourceSink

SinkSinkSourceSinkSinkSink

Flow Paths of Fire

Cold air drainage in mountains affects expected changes in temperature under climate change

KnowlesCreekSweetCreek< 5%10%15%>15%Debris Flow Delivery ProbabilityWeve Excelled at Landscape Planning

Deschutes Forest Plan Allocations NWFP AllocationsBut, that was the Easy Part Challenges for Further Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management Dynamics (e.g Disturbance and Climate)Reference condition/GoalsMulti-owner LandscapesUncertainty and flexibility

< 1011 - 4041 - 8081 - 200> 200Stand AgeThree CenturiesOf SimulatedPre-ColumbianFire History inOregon CoastRangeBy Nonaka Wimberly and SpiesDynamicsHistorical Range of VariabilityOregon Coast Range % of LandscapeEarly Seral: 10-25%Old Growth: 35-60%% of LandscapeProbability

8Area and AggregationPatch Proximity and Shape ComplexityNOWCan We Go Back? Forests 200-450 years old in the Coast RangeBased on Nonaka and Spies 2005100 yrCurrent Policy Scenario100 yrWildfire Scenario250 y400 y150 yHistorical Range of VariationClimate Change.

Littell et al. 2009Douglas-fir at risk under future climate

Range of Alaska Yellow Cedar

HRVWaypoint rather than Endpoint Reference point for navigation to destinationOther WaypointsFuture Range of VariabilitySocial Acceptability

Reference Conditions/Goals

Future Range of Variation (FRV)Estimated range of ecological conditions in future given climate change, land-use change and social acceptability

Resilience Instead of RestorationEvolving Scientific Perspectives Engineering Resilience

Ecological Resilience

Socio-EcologicalResilienceBased on Folke 2006MetricMetric 1Metric 2Metric 1Metric 2TimeMulti-ownership Landscapes

OwnerPolicyGoalsStrategyUSFS and BLMState of OregonPrivate. Industrial and Non-Industrial NewForestplans

ForestPracticesActNW Forest Plan Forest PlansHealthy forestsIndigenous speciesAbundant timberT&E species

Priority to growth and harvest of treesProtect environmentand fish/wildlifeLS/OG T&E species Aquatic CommoditiesStructure-based managementHab. Cons. PlanRetain trees in clearcuts,Streamside protection rulesReserves Matrix Gr-Tree retention AMACoastal OregonMulti-ownership Landscapes

Vegetation Classes1996 Initial PeriodBase PolicyGNNNot SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2046 Base PolicySimulatedNot SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Vegetation Classes2096 Base PolicySimulatedNot SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants

Potential changes in 100 years as % of initial conditions

++

+

Percent ChangePolicy ScenariosIncreased Green Tree Retention on Private LandsNo Restoration thinning on Federal Lands1. Base policy What the managers are doing now

Current policyGreen tree retentionNo Fed thinningPotential Effects of Alternative Scenarios on Bird HabitatNorthern Spotted OwlWestern Blue BirdOlive-sided FlycatcherApplications of Landscape Ecology in Forest ManagementWhat has worked?Spatial pattern through allocation and zoningRecognizing process for some species/components

What has not yet worked well?Implementing dynamics-based approachesRevising allocations based on new knowledgeWorking across boundariesAdaptive management Changing Landscape Management Plans is Scary

NWFPBlue River PlanSocial Reaction

Barriers to Implementation of Landscape Concepts Social/PoliticalEconomicInstitutional Uncertainty: Not an Excuse for InactionEmbrace it Landscape management as experiment

Learn and adapt in each successive cycle of management.

Scenario planning and dialog

Scenario PlanningOpportunitiesNew technologies to visualize landscapes and scenarios Collaboratives may increase range of social acceptabilityImplement on small landscapes and less controversial projects

Chart1243235.175243235.175243235.175337409.55333275.2337724.475398695.36403937.04400591.59477000.61460682.29480326.18600438.09580589.49604150.66

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresNorthern Spotted Owl (H9) HCI > 36--All Owners

owl_mike0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low323297122020607.001903534.001809528.001703524.001539702.00Med3858365241147.80330566.80356292.80431578.80545240.90High333982087.386842.7542402.5645421.8155197.19243235.18337409.55398695.36477000.61600438.09High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low323297122020607.001907669.001804287.001719842.001559551.00Med3858365241147.80327066.20363847.60417370.10526314.80High333982087.386209.0040089.4443312.1954274.69243235.18333275.20403937.04460682.29580589.49High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low323297122020607.001903219.001807632.001700198.001535990.00Med3858365241147.80330891.10357578.90434038.30547286.60High333982087.386833.3843012.6946287.8856864.06243235.18337724.48400591.59480326.18604150.66High+Med

owl_mike000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresNorthern Spotted Owl (H9) HCI > 36

bluebird0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002173974.002151511.002127572.002080891.00Med61298738311.6962220.8852024.1349832.3852610.19High1405368783.504749.254688.063119.816638.814709566970567125295259249High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002174103.002151739.002127891.002080743.00Med61298738311.6962143.0651614.8849490.5052912.00High1405368783.504697.694869.943142.756485.384709566841564855263359397High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.001969200.001992544.001961253.001932546.00Med61298738311.69244541.10189212.80187929.10171213.80High1405368783.5027202.5626466.6931342.7536380.7547095271744215679219272207595High+Med

bluebird000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresWestern Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29

flycatcher0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001663575.001627370.001529237.001387395.00Med8522521532657.60577369.00580854.10651269.60752745.60High20.130.000.0018.130.00532657.73577369.00580854.10651287.73752745.60High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001715860.001708515.001587640.001444729.00Med8522521532657.60525083.90499708.90592865.10695411.10High20.130.000.0019.630.00532657.73525083.90499708.90592884.73695411.10High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001618615.001541765.001427074.001286894.00Med8522521532657.60622329.30666458.40753435.40853246.50High20.130.000.0015.310.00532657.73622329.30666458.40753450.71853246.50High+Med

flycatcher000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresOlive-sided Flycatcher (H6) HCI > 19

lichenLow0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low305764211911026.001864189.001780023.001616420.001405512.00Med3603090225193.10193580.40214187.90311355.80344752.10High2041964127622.80183174.00214012.20252748.80389876.40352815.90376754.40428200.10564104.60734628.50High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low305764211911026.001865109.001781943.001624330.001431129.00Med3603090225193.10192893.60212600.50305368.30343436.10High2041964127622.80182941.30213679.80250826.80365575.40352815.90375834.90426280.30556195.10709011.50High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low305764211911026.001864048.001779974.001616344.001405101.00Med3603090225193.10193642.40214151.00311411.20345322.80High2041964127622.80183253.00214098.80252769.30389716.60352815.90376895.40428249.80564180.50735039.40High+Med

lichenLow000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresLow Mobility Lichen (H2) HCI > 24

lichenMed0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low10036349627271.80688947.40741978.20692559.90659778.70Med11913536744596.00482528.80359547.80352437.10335391.10High14271590891974.401069468.001106698.001135528.001144971.001636570.401551996.801466245.801487965.101480362.10High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low10036349627271.80689025.40741048.40689079.80659893.90Med11913536744596.00484165.90359902.80353240.20332695.00High14271590891974.401067752.001107272.001138205.001147552.001636570.401551917.901467174.801491445.201480247.00High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low10036349627271.80600856.90499858.80463240.70427857.80Med11913536744596.00565511.10574532.50522774.00495892.30High14271590891974.401074576.001133832.001194510.001216390.001636570.401640087.101708364.501717284.001712282.30High+Med

lichenMed000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresModerate Mobility Lichen (H2) HCI > 24

treeVole (h3)0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low199098631244367.001208833.001016832.00946443.50864723.40Med10383488648968.00497148.00489886.10450308.10418121.90High5928124370507.80534963.10701505.30783772.90857295.101019475.801032111.101191391.401234081.001275417.00High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low199098631244367.001211617.001015426.00943238.00862319.10Med10383488648968.00489807.80485195.80449608.90421108.30High5928124370507.80539519.10707601.60787677.50856713.001019475.801029326.901192797.401237286.401277821.30High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low199098631244367.00700689.80304271.40265560.60247290.50Med10383488648968.00994332.501101747.00970818.70853703.10High5928124370507.80545921.40802205.40944145.101039147.001019475.801540253.901903952.401914963.801892850.10High+Med

treeVole (h3)000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresRed Tree Vole (H3) HCI > 29

murrelet (h8)0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low297010681856317.001643348.001468775.001335949.001258945.00Med3527641220477.60327147.30326018.70279991.60244989.30High2992766187047.90270448.80413430.10564584.30636205.90407525.50597596.10739448.80844575.90881195.20High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low297010681856317.001630088.001464305.001348593.001264741.00Med3527641220477.60335729.80333910.00287908.50254988.10High2992766187047.90275125.80410009.10544022.90620411.20407525.50610855.60743919.10831931.40875399.30High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low297010681856317.001643150.001463449.001327259.001246403.00Med3527641220477.60327122.20330524.60287481.60254773.70High2992766187047.90270671.40414250.30565783.50638963.70407525.50597793.60744774.90853265.10893737.40High+Med

murrelet (h8)000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresMarbled Murrelet (H8) HCI > 32

oldGrowth0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low332250202076564.001897394.001692440.001503434.001342916.00Med2446248152890.50252721.70359857.80468648.90538320.60High55020734387.9490827.75155926.10208441.60258904.30187278.44343549.45515783.90677090.50797224.90High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low332250202076564.001896365.001677049.001488285.001339766.00Med2446248152890.50253870.90375534.80484324.90550484.30High55020734387.9490707.69155639.70207914.30249890.50187278.44344578.59531174.50692239.20800374.80High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low332250202076564.001897061.001692159.001503121.001342030.00Med2446248152890.50253080.30360144.60468860.40539266.80High55020734387.9490802.88155919.90208542.80258843.80187278.44343883.18516064.50677403.20798110.60High+Med

oldGrowth000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresOld Growth (NL) HCI > 49

Chart247095.1947095.1947095.1966970.1366840.748271743.6656712.19356484.818215679.4952952.19352633.25219271.8559249.00359397.375207594.55

BaseNFTLT3TimeHectaresWestern Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29


owl_mike000000000000000


bluebirdBaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002173974.002151511.002127572.002080891.00Med61298738311.6962220.8852024.1349832.3852610.19High1405368783.504749.254688.063119.816638.814709566970567125295259249High+MedNFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002174103.002151739.002127891.002080743.00Med61298738311.6962143.0651614.8849490.5052912.00High1405368783.504697.694869.943142.756485.384709566841564855263359397High+MedLT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.001969200.001992544.001961253.001932546.00Med61298738311.69244541.10189212.80187929.10171213.80High1405368783.5027202.5626466.6931342.7536380.7547095271744215679219272207595High+Med

bluebird000000000000000

BaseNFTLT3TimeHectaresWestern Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29

flycatcher0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001663575.001627370.001529237.001387395.00Med8522521532657.60577369.00580854.10651269.60752745.60High20.130.000.0018.130.00532657.73577369.00580854.10651287.73752745.60High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001715860.001708515.001587640.001444729.00Med8522521532657.60525083.90499708.90592865.10695411.10High20.130.000.0019.630.00532657.73525083.90499708.90592884.73695411.10High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001618615.001541765.001427074.001286894.00Med8522521532657.60622329.30666458.40753435.40853246.50High20.130.000.0015.310.00532657.73622329.30666458.40753450.71853246.50High+Med


0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresOlive-sided Flycatcher (H6) HCI > 19


lichenLow000000000000000



lichenMed000000000000000



treeVole (h3)000000000000000



murrelet (h8)000000000000000



oldGrowth000000000000000


Chart3532657.725532657.725532657.725577369525083.9622329.3580854.1499708.9666458.4651287.725592884.725753450.7125752745.6695411.1853246.5

BaseNFTLT3TimeHectaresOlive-sided Flycatcher (H6) HCI > 19


owl_mike000000000000000


bluebird0305 BaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002173974.002151511.002127572.002080891.00Med61298738311.6962220.8852024.1349832.3852610.19High1405368783.504749.254688.063119.816638.814709566970567125295259249High+Med0305 NFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.002174103.002151739.002127891.002080743.00Med61298738311.6962143.0651614.8849490.5052912.00High1405368783.504697.694869.943142.756485.384709566841564855263359397High+Med0305 LT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low354679522216747.001969200.001992544.001961253.001932546.00Med61298738311.69244541.10189212.80187929.10171213.80High1405368783.5027202.5626466.6931342.7536380.7547095271744215679219272207595High+Med

bluebird000000000000000

0305 Base0305 NFT0305 LT3TimeHectaresWestern Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29

flycatcherBaseCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20InitialYear 25Year 50Year 75Year 100Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001663575.001627370.001529237.001387395.00Med8522521532657.60577369.00580854.10651269.60752745.60High20.130.000.0018.130.00532657.73577369.00580854.10651287.73752745.60High+MedNFTCOUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001715860.001708515.001587640.001444729.00Med8522521532657.60525083.90499708.90592865.10695411.10High20.130.000.0019.630.00532657.73525083.90499708.90592884.73695411.10High+MedLT3COUNTHA_96HA_5HA_10HA_15HA_20Non-forest9976175623510.90624400.20657120.40684819.40725203.50Low276989521731185.001618615.001541765.001427074.001286894.00Med8522521532657.60622329.30666458.40753435.40853246.50High20.130.000.0015.310.00532657.73622329.30666458.40753450.71853246.50High+Med


BaseNFTLT3TimeHectares


lichenLow000000000000000



lichenMed000000000000000



treeVole (h3)000000000000000



murrelet (h8)000000000000000



oldGrowth000000000000000


Documents

Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management : A Glass Half Empty?