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Appendix B: Calibration and Validation Results – Current Speed (Velocity)

October 2015 – REV5 Final Report V3, Savannah Harbor Modeling Report

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Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................... B-II

LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ B-III

LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................... B-V

B.1 CURRENT SPEED TIME SERIES CALIBRATION COMPARISON ............................................................ B-1

B.2 CURRENT SPEED TIME SERIES VALIDATION COMPARISON ............................................................ B-15

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List of Figures

Figure B-1 Location of current speed calibration stations ................................................................ B-2

Figure B-2 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA

for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ......................................................................... B-4

Figure B-3 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA

for the period 03/01/2014 – 04/30/2014 ......................................................................... B-4

Figure B-4 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA

for the period 04/15/2014 – 04/30/2014 ......................................................................... B-5

Figure B-5 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port

Wentworth for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ...................................................... B-5

Figure B-6 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port

Wentworth for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013 ...................................................... B-6

Figure B-7 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port

Wentworth for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013 ...................................................... B-6

Figure B-8 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port

Wentworth for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ...................................................... B-7

Figure B-9 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port

Wentworth for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013 ...................................................... B-7

Figure B-10 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port

Wentworth for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013 ...................................................... B-8

Figure B-11 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ....................................... B-8

Figure B-12 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 03/01/2014 – 04/30/2014 ....................................... B-9

Figure B-13 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 04/15/2014 – 04/30/2014 ....................................... B-9

Figure B-14 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski,

GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ................................................................. B-10

Figure B-15 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski,

GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013 ................................................................. B-10

Figure B-16 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski,

GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013 ................................................................. B-11

Figure B-17 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock,

at Savannah, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ........................................... B-11

Figure B-18 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock,

at Savannah, GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013 ........................................... B-12

Figure B-19 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock,

at Savannah, GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013 ........................................... B-12

Figure B-20 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014 ..................................... B-13

Figure B-21 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013 ..................................... B-13

Figure B-22 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013 ..................................... B-14

Figure B-23 Location of current speed validation stations ............................................................... B-16

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Figure B-24 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port

Wentworth for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012 ...................................................... B-18

Figure B-25 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port

Wentworth for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012 ...................................................... B-18

Figure B-26 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski,

GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012 ................................................................... B-19

Figure B-27 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock,

at Savannah, GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012 ............................................. B-19

Figure B-28 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at

Port Wentworth, GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012 ....................................... B-20

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List of Tables

Table B-1 Savannah Harbor current speed calibration statistics ..................................................... B-3

Table B-2 Savannah Harbor current speed calibration performance statistics ................................ B-3

Table B-3 Savannah Harbor current speed validation statistics ..................................................... B-17

Table B-4 Savannah Harbor current speed validation performance statistics ............................... B-17

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B.1 Current speed time series calibration comparison

Comparisons of simulated versus observed current speeds (cross sectional average velocities) were

performed at the USGS calibration stations shown in Figure B-1. The calibration results are presented in

Table B-1 and from Figure B-2 to Figure B-22. The federal agency expectations comparisons for the

calibration period are presented in Table B-2. Statistics were computed at the USGS stations for the full

calibration period, January 1, 2013 through April 30, 2014.

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Figure B-1 Location of current speed calibration stations

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Table B-1 Savannah Harbor current speed calibration statistics

Station ID

Measured (cm/s) Simulated (cm/s)

R2 MAE

(cm/s) RMSE (cm/s)

Norm RMS Err

Index of

Agrmt Mean Median 5 %tile 95

%tile Mean Median

5 %tile

95 %tile

02198840 -

48.45 -46.19 -95.29 0.98 -49.57 -52.28 -95.88 -2.35 0.86 9.43 11.63 0.20 0.96

02198920 -

22.57 -14.02 -93.38 47.77 -22.84 -22.47 -87.84 62.04 0.89 14.41 17.87 0.33 0.97

02198950 -9.28 -1.04 -67.19 45.11 -11.39 -12.83 -58.80 50.86 0.91 9.53 12.27 0.31 0.97

02198955 -9.79 -0.84 -72.49 50.10 -7.16 -3.76 -54.05 49.92 0.94 8.19 10.63 0.27 0.98

02198980 -

13.27 0.56 -111.6 87.66 -5.68 5.21 -86.46 82.20 0.95 13.87 17.69 0.28 0.98

021989773 -

15.19 -6.49 -81.21 56.41 -13.24 -8.77 -69.61 55.49 0.94 9.09 11.52 0.24 0.98

021989792 -

12.51 -5.86 -60.03 37.57 -19.06 -34.72 -59.12 45.07 0.73 15.43 20.79 0.57 0.91

Table B-2 Savannah Harbor current speed calibration performance statistics

Station ID Measured (m/s) Simulated (m/s) Percent Difference

5 % tile 95 %tile 5 % tile 95 %tile 5 % tile 95 %tile

02198840 -0.95 0.01 -0.96 -0.02 -1% 340%

02198920 -0.93 0.48 -0.88 0.62 6% -30%

02198950 -0.67 0.45 -0.59 0.51 12% -13%

02198955 -0.72 0.50 -0.54 0.50 25% 0%

02198980 -1.12 0.88 -0.86 0.82 23% 6%

021989773 -0.81 0.56 -0.70 0.55 14% 2%

021989792 -0.60 0.38 -0.59 0.45 2% -20%

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Figure B-2 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-3 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA for the period 03/01/2014 – 04/30/2014

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Figure B-4 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198840 (I-95) near Port Wentworth, GA for the period 04/15/2014 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-5 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port Wentworth for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

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Figure B-6 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port Wentworth for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013

Figure B-7 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port Wentworth for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013

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Figure B-8 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-9 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013

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Figure B-10 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013

Figure B-11 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

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Figure B-12 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 03/01/2014 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-13 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198955 Middle River at "Fish Hole" at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 04/15/2014 – 04/30/2014

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Figure B-14 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-15 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski, GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013

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Figure B-16 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski, GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013

Figure B-17 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock, at Savannah, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

October 2015 – REV5 Final Report V3, Savannah Harbor Modeling Report

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Figure B-18 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock, at Savannah, GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013

Figure B-19 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock, at Savannah, GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013

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Figure B-20 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 01/01/2013 – 04/30/2014

Figure B-21 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 08/01/2013 – 09/30/2013

October 2015 – REV5 Final Report V3, Savannah Harbor Modeling Report

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Figure B-22 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 09/15/2013 – 09/30/2013

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B.2 Current speed time series validation comparison

Comparisons of simulated versus observed current speeds (cross sectional average velocities) were

performed at the USGS validation stations shown in Figure B-23 for October 1, 2007 through December

31, 2012. The validation results are presented in Table B-3 and from Figure B-24 to Figure B-28. The

federal agency expectations comparisons for the validation period are presented in Table B-4.

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Figure B-23 Location of current speed validation stations

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Table B-3 Savannah Harbor current speed validation statistics

Station ID

Measured (cm/s) Simulated (cm/s)

R2 MAE

(cm/s) RMSE (cm/s)

Norm RMS Err

Index of

Agrmt Mean Median 5

%tile 95

%tile Mean Median

5 %tile

95 %tile

02198920 -8.82 0.83 -74.30 52.59 -9.58 -2.99 -69.44 56.94 0.94 8.42 10.87 0.25 0.98

02198950 -3.56 4.25 -57.71 46.86 -5.96 -2.52 -48.25 44.14 0.91 8.44 10.71 0.32 0.97

02198980 -6.44 6.68 -97.84 86.68 -2.64 6.62 -72.16 69.00 0.96 15.99 19.34 0.35 0.97

021989773 -8.58 1.02 -76.95 59.91 -5.74 0.51 -56.95 48.48 0.95 11.67 14.23 0.34 0.97

021989792 -7.77 0.08 -55.62 40.63 -13.43 -14.28 -51.68 38.02 0.77 12.50 17.17 0.53 0.93

Table B-4 Savannah Harbor current speed validation performance statistics

Station ID Measured (m/s) Simulated (m/s) Percent Difference

5 % tile 95 %tile 5 % tile 95 %tile 5 % tile 95 %tile

02198920 -0.74 0.53 -0.69 0.57 7% -8%

02198950 -0.58 0.47 -0.48 0.44 16% 6%

02198980 -0.98 0.87 -0.72 0.69 26% 20%

021989773 -0.77 0.60 -0.57 0.48 26% 19%

021989792 -0.56 0.41 -0.52 0.38 7% 6%

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Figure B-24 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198920 Savannah River at GA 25, at Port Wentworth for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012

Figure B-25 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198950 Middle River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012

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Figure B-26 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 02198980 Savannah River at Fort Pulaski, GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012

Figure B-27 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989773 Savannah River at USACE Dock, at Savannah, GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012

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Figure B-28 Current speed comparison at USGS Station 021989792 Little Back River at GA 25 at Port Wentworth, GA for the period 10/1/2007 – 12/31/2012