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1930 ∗

†

1984 11

1 A

Mundell 1964 Bruno and Sachs 1985

q GDP w p

q = − α(w − p). (1)

α q∗ = − α(w∗ − p∗ )

A.1.

w = w. (2)

w w pw − p

G 1/GG G

g = log G G∗ g∗ = log G∗

E G/G ∗ E e = log E e = g − g∗

iP P ∗ /E

∗ “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovary in the 1930s” NBER Working Paper No. 1498† Barry Eichengreen and Jeffery Sachs

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1

q = − α(w − p) (a = 1 /α )q∗ = − α(w∗ − p∗ )w = ww∗ = w∗

q = − δ( p + g − g∗ − p∗ ) − σiq∗ = − δ( p∗ + g∗ − g − p) − σi ∗

m − p = φq − βim ∗ − p∗ = φq∗ − βi ∗

i = i∗

m = r − g − ψm ∗ = r ∗ − g∗ − ψ∗

0 = γdr + (1 − γ )dr ∗

PE/P ∗ p + g − g∗ − p∗

q = − δ( p + g − g∗ − p∗ )σi. (3)

m − p = φq − βi. (4)

m M

i = i∗

. (5)

(5)

R1/G R/G Ψ = ( R/G )/M

m = r − g − ψ, (6)

(6)

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ψ r

RW RW =R + R ∗ dr = d log R = dR/Rγ = R/R W

γdr + (1 − γ )dr ∗ = 0 , (7)

A.1. 12 q,w,p,i ,m,r q∗ , w∗ , p∗ , i ∗ , m ∗ , r ∗

12 1/GΨ g ψ

m rdg < 0

(gold reserve) dr = 0 (gold backing) ψ

dg∗ = 0 = dψ∗

dg < 0, dψ = 0 dg∗ = 0 = dψ∗

dg = dg∗ < 0, dψ = dψ∗ = 0

dm = dm ∗ = 0

dg = dg∗

= 0 , dψ = dψ∗

> 0

1.1

r g m ψ dr = 0dr ∗ = 0 m ∗ = r ∗ − g∗ − ψ∗ dψ ∗ = dg∗ = 0

dm ∗ = 0

(∆ = − (1 + δa)[β (1 + δa) + σ(a + φ)] + δa[δaβ − σ(a + φ)] < 0 )

dq =1∆

[δβ + 2 σδ(a + φ)]dg > 0,

dq∗ = βδ∆

dg < 0,

d(w − p) = −1

α∆[δβ + 2 σδ(a + φ)]dg < 0,

di = −1∆

[δ(a + φ)]dg < 0.

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1.2 dg < 0 , dψ = 0

rdr ∗ = − [γ/ (1 − γ )]dr r r ∗ dψ∗ = dg∗ = 0dm ∗ = dr ∗

r ∗ dq∗ > 0

( dΩ = 11 − γ β [1 + 2aδ] + ( a + φ)[2σaδ + σ] > 0

Γ = γ1 − γ

)dq = −

1Ω

[β + 2 φδ(a + φ) + Γ β + Γ σ(1 + aδ) + 2Γ aδ]dg > 0,

dq∗ = ∗1Ω

[δβ (Γ + 1)] dg + σdr∗

β + σ(a + φ)≶ 0,

dr ∗ =1Ω

[β + σ(a + φ)][2φδ − 1]Γdg ≶ 0,

di =1Ω

[Γ(1 + aδ) + (1 − Γ)( a + φ)δ]dg ≶ 0.

dr ∗ < 0 dq∗ dg < 0dr ∗ > 0 dq∗ > 0 dr ∗ > 0 dq∗

dr ∗ > 0 δ β δ = β = 0 dq∗ = dr ∗ / (a + φ) > 0 dr ∗ = − γdg > 0

1.3 dg = dg∗ < 0 , dψ = dψ∗ = 0

(Λ = β + σ(a + φ) > 0 )

dq = dq∗ = −σΛ

dg > 0,

di =1Λ

dg < 0,

d(w − p) =σ

αΛdg < 0.

1.4 dg = dg∗ < 0 , dm =

dm ∗ = 0

dg = dg∗ = 0 ,di = 0 ,

d(w − p) = 0 .

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1.5 dg = dg∗ = 0 , dψ = dψ∗ > 0

Ψ P si ∗ dm = dm ∗ = dφ = − dφ∗

dq = dq∗ = −σΛ

dφ < 0,

di =1Λ

dφ > 0,

d(w − p) =σ

αΛdφ > 0.

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