Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
APPSYCHUnit7B.2MakingDecisions&Forming
JudgmentsHowdoheuristics,overconfidence,&beliefperseveranceinfluenceourdecisions&judgments?
Using&MisusingHeuristicsOurmind’sautomaticprocessingusesheuristicstomakequickjudgmentdecisions,butsometimesquickdecisionscanleadustomakebaddecisions
RepresentativeHeuristics- makingajudgmentbasedonprototypesorstereotypes.
AvailabilityHeuristics- makingajudgmentbasedonthefirstthingthatcomestomind.
Tip:Itwillcomedowntohowthequestion iswordedonatest- becausecertainlybothcanapply
EX:Representative-seeing areallytallpersonassumingthattheyplaybasketball,becausetheyfityourprototypeofthebasketballplayer
EX:Availability-thinkingthatgettingtheZika virusislikely,Because it'sinthenewssomuch
Using&MisusingHeuristics
RepresentativeHeuristics– Usingstereotypestomakejudgements
AvailabilityHeuristics– Usingthefirstthingthatpopsintoourmindtothenmakenewstereotypes
Using&MisusingHeuristicsImagineapolitician
Whopopped intoyourmind?
Butbecarefulusing:"inthenews"or"recentlyheard"sincethemostimportantaspectofavailabilityisthatit"popsintoyourmindfirst”IreadalotaboutTrumpbutthefirstthingthat"popsintomymind"aboutpoliticiansmaynotbehim!
Imagineanurse
Whopopped intoyourmind?
Awoman?
Using&MisusingHeuristics
Which kills more people per year, shark attacks or hot dogs?
Using&MisusingHeuristicsOurmind’sautomaticprocessingusesheuristicstomakequickjudgmentdecisions,butsometimesquickdecisionscanleadustomakebaddecisions
Representativeheuristic– judgingthelikelihoodofthingsintermsofhowwelltheyseemtorepresent,ormatchparticularprototypes(mentalimages);thismayleadustoignoreotherrelevantinformation
Wemayusethistooverridestatisticsorlogic.
Don’t judgeabookbyit’scover!
Using&MisusingHeuristicsTheavailabilityheuristic–estimatingthelikelihoodofeventsbasedontheiravailabilityinmemory;ifinstancescomereadilytomind,wepresumesucheventstobecommon
Ex.Casinosmakeabigdealaboutevensmallwinssothatwearemorelikelytorememberthemthanthelosseswhichoccurmoreoften.
AvailabilityHeuristicExampleIsanyoneafraidofterrorists?
Afraidofflying?
Why?
AvailabilityHeuristicExamples
AvailabilityHeuristicExample
OverconfidenceOverconfidence – thetendency tobemoreconfident thancorrect– tooverestimate theaccuracy ofourbeliefsandjudgments• Wefailtoappreciateourpotential forerror• Happensalotrightafteratestyoumighttake• Americanconfidence beforeVietnam,Iraq
OverconfidenceYesterdaysomeoneasksyou:Howlongwillittakeyoutodoyourhomeworktonight?• Youranswer:1hour• Reality:3hours
Nextweeksomeoneasksyou:Howlongwillittakeyoutodoyourhomeworktonight?• Youranswer:1hour• Reality:3hours
Despiteourestimationmistakes,weremainoverconfident withournextpredictions
BeliefPerseverance
Beliefperseverance– clingingtoone’sinitialconceptionsafterthebasisonwhichtheywereformedhavebeendiscredited
Teachersmakethismistakewithstudentsbasedoneitheroldreputationsthekidmighthaveorone-timemistakesakidmighthavemade
Pre-judging
IntuitionAneffortless,immediate,automaticfeelingorthought.
Fast,automatic,unreasonedfeeling&thought
Notexplicit,consciousreasoning.
IntuitionItisourinnateinclinationtowardaparticular behavior (asopposed toalearnedresponse).
Agutfeeling—or ahunch—isasensationthatappearsquicklyinconsciousness (noticeableenoughtobeactedonifonechoosesto)withoutusbeingfullyawareoftheunderlyingreasonsforitsoccurrence.
IntuitionIntuitionisaprocessthatgivesustheabilitytoknowsomethingdirectlywithoutanalyticreasoning,bridgingthegapbetweentheconsciousandnon-consciouspartsofourmind,andalsobetweeninstinctandreason.
Wethinkofintuitionasamagicalphenomenon—buthunchesareformedoutofourpastexperiencesandknowledge.
Sowhilerelyingongutfeelingsdoesn'talwaysleadtogooddecisions,it'snotnearlyasflightyatacticasitmaysound.
Intuition
Whenfacedwithcomplexchoicesthebestsolutioncomesafteroneisdistractedandthencomesbacktotheproblem“Sleeponit”
Framing
FramingThewayanissueisposed.
10%ofpeoplediewhileundergoingthissurgery90%ofpeoplesurvivewhileundergoingthissurgery.
Cansignificantlyaffectdecisionsandjudgments.
Framing&OptionsPreferredportionsizedepends onframing
Regularvs.small,regularvs.supersize
Opt-outvs.Opt-in:ChoosingtobeanorgandonordependsonwhereyouliveHowtohelpemployees decidetosavefortheirretirement
FramingExamples
“Aidtotheneedy” vs.“welfare”
Storesmarktheir“regularprices”uptoappeartohavehugesavings.
Whatis“socialsecurity”?