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Aon Group Limited
From Reinsurance
to ART
Dr. Alan Punter
Aon Capital Markets,
London
21st September, 2000
Alternative Risk and
Alternative Transfer
Aon Group Limited
2
Insurance and reinsurance have a long historyInsurance and reinsurance have a long history
circa 2000 BC: Predecessor of marine insurance practised in Babylon - “bottomry” involved a loan on the security of a ship, but if the ship was lost the loan was not repaid.
1370: The first reinsurance transaction, as documented by Gustav Cruciger, who described how an insurer obtained reinsurance on a voyage it was insuring from Genoa, Italy, to Sluys, Netherlands.
1654 Bodlean library contains entries from insurance broker’s account book listing deals.
1688: Lloyd’s coffee house advertised in London Gazette.
1863: The formation of Swiss Re and Munich Re (in 1880) are widely considered to be the start of the modern “professional reinsurance” industry in continental Europe.
Aon Group Limited
3
World Insurance MarketWorld Insurance Market
1998 premiums (US$ billions)
Life Non-life Total
North America 368 411 779
Latin America 11 28 39
Americas 379 439 818
Western Europe 399 286 685
Central / Eastern Europe 4 11 15
Europe 402 297 699
Japan 361 92 453
South and East Asia 74 33 107
Middle East 4 7 11
Asia 439 132 571
Africa 22 7 29
Oceania 22 15 37
World 1,264 891 2,155
Aon Group Limited
4
US Insurance Results 1999US Insurance Results 1999
Net income after taxes fell from $30.8 bn in 1998 to $22.2 bn in 1999
Combined ratio up from 105.6% in 1998 to 107.9% in 1999
Rate of return on average net worth fell from 8.5% in 1998 to 6.4% in 1999
Problems: poor premium growth weak profitability due to rising incurred losses and loss-adjustment
expenses falling investment income
Aon Group Limited
5
European reinsurers results 1999European reinsurers results 1999
“Very sorry picture” (Standard & Poor’s)
Estimated average combined ratio of 131% for 1999 (109% in 1998)
Record number of catastrophes in 1999 (including eight of over $1 billion)
Weak premium rates, to continue in 2000 late occurrence of December 1999 European storms
many multi-year contracts signed at 1/1/99 to cover Y2K issues
High Aviation claims
Retrocession recovery problems
Aon Group Limited
6
Why do insurers buy reinsurance?Why do insurers buy reinsurance?
Ancient
Widen book of business - quota share
Smooth earnings - excess of loss
Off balance sheet “fund”
Modern
Liquidity
Protect ratings & franchise
Balance sheet management
Enhance return on capital
Aon Group Limited
7
The landscape of risk is changing ...The landscape of risk is changing ...
Increasing exposures
Natural perils
40 of the fastest 50 growing cities are in earthquake zones
half off the world’s population lives in coastal regions, many of them exposed to the dangers of rising sea levels, repeated flooding and cyclones (World Disasters Report 1999)
Man-made perils
business interdependency
critical reliance on integrated IT (communications and processing) systems
brand values and reputation risk
Aon Group Limited
8
The landscape of risk is changing ...The landscape of risk is changing ...
Broadening view of risk
“Risk is Risk”
traditional insurance risks
growth of capital markets and derivatives or financial and market risks (interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices, credit, weather)
operational risks (everything else - strategy, business, technology, legal, political, people, etc.)
Aon Group Limited
9
The landscape of risk is changing ...The landscape of risk is changing ...
Change in the financing of risk
(Re)Insurance does not appear to deliver:
clarity of cover
certainty of payment, timing and amount
… and has a high frictional cost
Increasing use of non-traditional forms of risk financing
growth of captives, blended solutions
Convergence with capital markets
catastrophe bonds
CatEPuts®
Aon Group Limited
10
Intellectual convergenceIntellectual convergence
Traditional Risk Transfer ART / ARF Traditional Risk Financing
Capitalmarkets
Insurancemarkets
Financial hedgesCat Bonds
SecuritisationContingent capital - CatEPuts
Guaranteed CostInsurance policy
Multi-line
ART solutions
Aon Group Limited
11
What does “Alternative” mean?What does “Alternative” mean?
Any mechanism used to substitute for traditional risk transfer products offered by re/insurers
A planned approach to financing risk involving:
Alternative risks not traditionally reinsurable
eg. interest rate or commodity exposure, brand image
Alternative structures, not reinsurance contracts
eg. weather derivatives, catastrophe bonds
Alternative markets, not Insurers or Reinsurers
eg. capital market entities such as pension funds, banks and fund managers
Aon Group Limited
12
Common Objectives of ART BuyersCommon Objectives of ART Buyers
Risk retention
Efficient use of capital
Long term continuity and pricing stability
Specified historic / future loss problem smoothing
P&L insulation
Managing volatility and adding liquidity
Unlock potential profit in long tail exposures
Insurance of traditionally ‘uninsurable’ risks
Aon Group Limited
13
Common Solution Characteristics & FeaturesCommon Solution Characteristics & Features
Solution not product driven, with alignment of interests (tailored to match client needs & market appetite)
Multi-risk or aggregate nature of coverage (blending)
Finite, aggregate limits of liability (per occ, annual, term)
Multi-year contractual commitment
Profit sharing, often with investment income
Transparency
Converged Banking / Insurance / Capital techniques
Generally, reinsured’s upside (i.e. reinsurer’s downside) is limited in some way
Aon Group Limited
14
Trends & Future Development of ARTTrends & Future Development of ART
Continued growth of many forms of self insurance (i.e. larger retentions, insurance co. captive formation, ‘finite’ risk programmes)
Increasingly buyers require flexible, bespoke, broader applications
Accountancy treatment, taxation treatment and legal contracts need to be analysed carefully
Techniques and instruments need to be fully tested in real circumstances
New deals are moving away from insurance principles of insurable interest and indemnity
Whilst market remains soft, low financial incentive for buyers to be too adventurous (current appear expensive)
Aon Group Limited
15
ART Markets: CharacteristicsART Markets: Characteristics The major financial organisations including
Professional (re)insurers
(ACE, AIG, Allianz, Axa Global Risks / Paribas, Bankers Trust, Chubb, Citicorp / Travellers, Custom Risk Solutions (RSA, Ace, Aon), ERC Frankona, General Re, Gerling, Liberty Re, Munich American Risk Partners, QBE, Scandinavian Re, Stockton Re, Swiss Re New Markets, Transatlantic Re, Winterthur / Credit Suisse, XL / Pareto, Zurich Centre Solutions)
Global carriers
Finance houses / merchant banks / capital markets
Strong balance sheets
Proven commitment to long term partnerships
Proven commitment to tailor-made (customised) solutions
Aon Group Limited
16
Most Efficient use of Risk Capital ?Most Efficient use of Risk Capital ?
ML/
MY
Portfo
lio T
rans
fer
Fini
te R
isk
Identify risks and trading objectives
Perform risk analysis and evaluation of data
Quantitatively identify optimal solution
Who
le A
ccou
nt
Stop
Loss
Doubl
e Tr
igge
r
CatEPut
s
Placement and Negotiation
Traditional ARTCapital Markets
Retain
Surpl
usRis
k XL
Aggre
gate
XL
Quo
ta S
hare
Cat. X
L
Stop
Loss
Hybrid
Equ
ity
Sub In
sura
nce
Notes
Wea
ther
der
ivat
ives
Captiv
eBle
nded
Cat b
onds
Aon Group Limited
17
Alternative Risk Transfer & Financing Alternative Risk Transfer & Financing Structures in Context - Annual PlacingsStructures in Context - Annual Placings
Capital Markets
Contingent Equity Programmes (CatEPutSM
) Catastrophe Bonds Integrated Risk (FX / Gradual Pollution)
Weather Derivatives / Commodities Blended / Multiple Trigger / Residual Value
Loss Portfolio Transfer
Multi-line / Multi-year
Captives
Motor / Property / Liability - QS,
surplus, risk & cat XL etc
Traditional (Re)Insurance
Millions
Thousands
Tens
Contracts Placed Annually Worldwide
Financing Cashflow
Insurance Risk Transfer
Aon Group Limited
18
Developments in Insurance ARTDevelopments in Insurance ART
Self-insurance
Retrospectively rated plans (retros)
Captive insurance company, rent-a-captive and protected cell company
Finite or financial insurance
Multi-line, multi-year, aggregate or blended and integrated programmes
Enterprise-wide risk management
Aon Group Limited
19
Developments in Reinsurance ARTDevelopments in Reinsurance ART
Financial reinsurance
Insurance derivatives
Contingent capital (debt and equity)
Double triggers
Catastrophe Bonds
Aon Group Limited
20
Functions of financial reinsuranceFunctions of financial reinsurance
Smoothing of fluctuations in cedent’s loss experience over a period of years
Optimisation of balance sheet structure and reported ratios, such as solvency or reserve adequacy
Expansion of underwriting capacity, by ceding premiums and/or technical reserves
Increase in retentions
Facilitation of acquisitions, mergers and corporate restructuring
Aon Group Limited
21
Summary of financial reinsurance contractsSummary of financial reinsurance contracts
Type of contract Time dimension Type of risk Benefits
Loss Portfolio Transfer Retrospective Timing risk
Underwriting risk
Accelerate income
Discount reserves
Improve solvency
Adverse Development Cover(or retrospective aggregateexcess of loss)
Retrospective Underwriting risk
Timing risk
Credit risk
Transfer of aggregate risk
Finite (or Financial) QuotaShare
Prospective Surplus relief Increase capacity
Improve solvency
Spread Loss Treaty(or prospective aggregateexcess of loss)
Prospective Timing risk
Underwriting risk
Smooth and protect reportedannual results
‘Blended’ cover Prospective Underwriting risk
Non-traditionalrisks
Transfer risk of portfolioaggregation
Smooth and protect annualreported results
Aon Group Limited
22
Insurance-linked securitisationInsurance-linked securitisation
Risk liquidity
Contingent Surplus Notes (CSN)
Catastrophe Equity Puts (CatEPuts)
Risk transfer
Chicago Board of Trade options
Double trigger
Catastrophe Bonds
Aon Group Limited
23
Contingent Surplus Notes - CSNContingent Surplus Notes - CSN
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company of Ohio, Surplus Notes deal in 1995
$400 million raised and deposited in trust fund
Noteholders receive returns equal to yield on government bonds plus 23/8%, but run risk of Nationwide drawing down cash from trust fund and converting into surplus notes (like preference shares)
Nationwide can draw funds down under wide conditions
Arkwright Mutual did similar $100 m deal in 1996
Aon Group Limited
24
Contingent capital - CatEPutContingent capital - CatEPutSMSM
RLI Catastrophe Equity PutSM
3-year agreement brokered by Aon Re Services
RLI pays annual option premium to Centre Re
Trigger is major California quake, then:
Centre Re buys up to $50 million convertiblenon-voting preference shares in RLI
RLI pays annual dividends on preference shares
RLI converts preference shares into full-voting common equity after 3 to 4 years (but has option to repurchase at original issue price)
Aon Group Limited
25
The CatEPutThe CatEPutSMSM Structure Structure
Cash
Option premium
Option rights
Common shares
Preferred shares
Before option exercised
When option exercised
At conversion date
RLI
RLI
RLI
INVESTOR
INVESTOR
INVESTOR
Preferred shares
Aon Group Limited
26
CatEPuts - featuresCatEPuts - features
Post-event capital negotiated at pre-event terms
Pre-event
option premium lower cost than traditional reinsurance
protects shareholder value
mitigates dilutive effects of upper layer reinsurance
Post-event
balance sheet recovery
favourable treatment by ratings agencies
no reinstatement
no profit & loss protection
Aon Group Limited
27
Extract from RLI Corp. 1996 R&AExtract from RLI Corp. 1996 R&A
What are the benefits (of the CatEPut) to shareholders?
A: First, this is an extremely cost-effective level of security ... a
fraction of the price for a similar layer of reinsurance.
But by improving our ability to withstand a momentous
catastrophic event, we have also fortified shareholder value.
Even if such a disaster occurs, our earning power would
remain intact at its current level. Likewise the ability of RLI
to pay dividends and rise in value has also been shielded.
Aon Group Limited
28
Double Trigger - ExamplesDouble Trigger - Examples
European multi-line insurance company
suffered combined effect of not only poor returns from its stock and bonds investment portfolio, but also large underwriting loss
bought reinsurance programme that links retained losses to underlying financial criteria
CSAA reinsurance contract triggered by two elements
occurrence of a major catastrophe
fall in level of equity index
CLM reinsurance contract responds if CLM suffers from both a significant fall in the price of equities and adverse underwriting results
Aon Group Limited
29
Catastrophe or “Act of God” BondsCatastrophe or “Act of God” Bonds
Issued by insurer (or corporate)
In the event of a pre-defined catastrophe bondholders may be forced to:
forfeit some or all of their interest repayments; or
forfeit some or all of their principal; or
delay/defer receipt of interest or principal
Aon Group Limited
30
USAA / Residential Re I (1997)USAA / Residential Re I (1997)
Raised $400 million in cover through private placement of $477 million in bonds by Residential Re, Cayman Islands
Oversubscribed by factor 2plus
Trigger was single US East Coast hurricane intensity 3, 4 or 5
Indemnity of 80% of USAA’s losses $500 m excess of $1 bn
Two tranches: A-1 $164 million principal protected, LIBOR + 273 bps
A-2 $313 million principal-at-risk, LIBOR + 576 bps
Aon Group Limited
31
Investor base for USAA bond issueInvestor base for USAA bond issue
44%
12%
15%
18%3%
8%
Money managers
Mutual funds
Hedge funds
Life insurers
Reinsurers
Others
Aon Group Limited
32
Done DealsDone DealsDeal
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Date Completed
1994
June 1994
September 1994
September 1994
February 1995
Late 1995
April 1996
July 1996
October 1996
December 1996
December 1996
January 1997
March 1997
March 1997
June 1997
July 1997
July 1997
December 1997
Insured or Cedent
Hannover Re
FWUA (Florida Fund)
Florida RPC JUA
Nationwide
Arkwright
State Auto
Hannover Re
St. Paul (George Town Re)
Winterthur
Reliance
Horace Mann
USAA (Res'l Re)
Swiss Re
LaSalle Re
HHRF
AIG
RLI
Tokio Marine (Parametric)
Investors
Institutions
C Manhattan
Chemical Bank
J.P. Morgan
Institutions
Institutions
Institutions
C Manhattan
Centre Re
Institutions
Institutions
Institutions
Institutions
Centre Re
Institutions
Institutions
Swiss Re
Institutions
ML,GS,Lehman
Advisors
Citibank
Aon
None
None
J.P. M, SB
AIG
ML, MS
None
Aon
Citibank
GS
CSFB
Sedgwick
Aon
CSFB
Aon
GS, Swiss Re
Deal Description
Cat XL Retrocession
Cat Line of Credit
Cat Line of Credit
Cat Line of Credit
Contingent Surplus Notes
Cat XL
Contingent Surplus Notes
Catastrophe Line of Credit
CatEPut
Proportional Reinsurance
Property Surplus Share
Cat XL
Cat XL - Multi-line
CatEPut
Cat XL
Cat XL
CatEPut
Cat XL
Issue Size($ 000's)
85,000
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
400,000
10,000
100,000
100,000
50,000
100,000
50,000
130,000
40,000
100,000
400,000
122,000
100,000
90,000
Type
Risk Transfer
Contingent Capital
Contingent Capital
Contingent Capital
Contingent Capital
Risk Transfer
Contingent Capital
Contingent Capital
Contingent Capital
Risk Transfer
Risk Transfer
Risk Transfer
Risk Transfer
Contingent Capital
Risk Transfer
Risk Transfer
Contingent Capital
Risk Transfer
Perils Covered
PML Protection
Hawaii Wind
Florida Wind
Florida Wind
Surplus Protection
PML Protection
PML Protection
PML Protection
US Windstorm
European Hail
PML Protection
Florida Windstorm
California E’quake
PML Protection
Japanese E’quake
Aon Group Limited
33
Done DealsDone Deals
Deal Date Completed Insured or Cedent Investors Advisors Deal DescriptionIssue Size ($
000's) Type Perils Covered
19 February 1998 RAM Re PMI Group, Inc. None LOC Credit Enhancement 40,000 Contingent Capital PML Protection
20 March 1998 Centre Re (Trinity Re) Institutions GS, Chase Cat XL 75,000 Risk Transfer
21 April 1998 Mitsui Institutions Swiss Re Cat XL - Swap 30,000 Risk Transfer Japanese Earthquake
22 May 1998 Reliance Institutions Sedgwick Option on Cat Notes 50,000 Risk Transfer
23 June 1998 CNA (HF Re) Institutions Hedge FinancialCat XL 85,000 Risk Transfer
24 June 1998 Arrow Re Goldman Sachs Direct Contingent Capital 300,000 Contingent Capital PML Protection
25 June 1998 USAA (Res'l Re II) Institutions ML, GS, LehmanCat XL 450,000 Risk Transfer Florida Windstorm
26 June 1998 Yasuda(Pacific Re) Institutions Aon Cat XL 80,000 Risk Transfer Japanese Wind
27 June 1998 AXA Re Institutions Axa / Paribas Cat XL 25,000 Risk Transfer
28 July 1998 USF&G (Mosaic Re) Institutions GS, EWB Cat XL 54,000 Risk Transfer US Wind and Earthquake
29 July 1998 XL Re Institutions GS, Aon Cat XL 100,000 Risk Transfer US Wind and EQ
30 September 1998 Toyota Motor Credit Institutions GS Residual Value Excess 566,300 Risk Transfer Res Value of Car Leases
31 December 1998 Centre Re Institutions GS, Chase Cat XL 54,000 Risk Transfer
32 December 1998 Allianz (Gemini Re) Institutions GS Option on Second Cat XL 150,000 Risk Transfer European Wind
33 December 1998 CNA Institutions Soc. Gen. Cat XL 25,000 Risk Transfer
34 January 1999 Horace Mann Centre Re Aon CatEPut 100,000 Contingent Capital PML Protection
35 January 1999 Constitution Re Re/Institutions GS, EWB Cat XL 10,000 Risk Transfer
36 February 1999 St. Paul Re (Mosaic Re II)Institutions GS, EWB Cat XL 45,000 Risk Transfer US Wind and Earthquake
37 March 1999 Kemper (Domestic Inc.) Reinsurers Aon Cat XL - Equity 20,000 Risk Transfer Mid-Western EQ
March 1999 Kemper (Domestic Inc.) Institutions Aon Cat XL 80,000 Risk Transfer Mid-Western EQ
38 March 1999 Gerling (SECTRS 1999-1)Institutions GS Credit Reinsurance 463,000 Risk Transfer European Credit Risk
39 April 1999 Sorema (Halyard Re) Institutions ML, Aon Cat XL 17,000 Risk Transfer Japan/US Wind and EQ
40 May 1999 Oriental Land (Concentric Ltd)Re/Institutions GS Cat XL 100,000 Risk Transfer Japanese Earthquake
41 May 1999 Oriental Land (Circle Maihama) Re/Institutions GS Extendible Debt 100,000 Contingent Capital Japanese Earthquake
42 May 1999 Intrepid Re Insurers Aon CatEPut 100,000 Contingent Capital PML Protection
43 May 1999 USAA (Residential Re III) Inst. Investors GS, ML, LehmanCat XL 200,000 Risk Transfer Florida Windstorm
44 June 1999 Gerling Institutions Aon, GS Cat XL 80,000 Risk Transfer US Wind and EQ
45 October 1999 Koch Energy Inst. Investors GS Weather Contracts 50,000 Risk Transfer Weather Risk
46 November 1999 American Re Inst. Investors AM Re, ML, SSBCat XL 194,000 Risk Transfer US Wind and Earthquake
47 November 1999 Gerling Institutions Aon, GS Cat XL 100,000 Risk Transfer Japanese Earthquake
Total capacity added 5,535,300
Aon Group Limited
34
What investors wantWhat investors want
Clarity of trigger mechanism
No moral hazard
Quality exposure data
Objective risk assessment
Rated investments
Liquidity
Diversification (low beta plus)
… and excess returns!
Aon Group Limited
35
What sellers wantWhat sellers want
Access to new source(s) of secure risk capital
Certainty of cover
Minimum basis risk
Contract structure - probably (re)insurance
Fair price, cost effective transaction
Confidentiality
Longer-term capacity and price
Strategic capital and balance sheet management
Aon Group Limited
36
Rethinking (re)insuranceRethinking (re)insurance
Product showing lack of growth
global non-life insurance premiums only grew by 0.2% in real terms in 1997 (Swiss Re)
Service not highly rated
insurers, brokers and other service providers all given ‘D’ grades in 1999 Quality Scorecard published at US RIMS in 1999
Risk is becoming a Boardroom issue (Cadbury, Greenbury, Hampel, Turnbull)
but insurance is not mentioned in corporate Report & Accounts
“Traditional insurance does not provide protection against 80% of risks faced by companies”
(Bob Cooney, XL)
Aon Group Limited
37
What risks are clients concerned about?What risks are clients concerned about?
2
2
5
5
7
7
9
14
21
25
30
34
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Stress claims against employees
Genetically modified organisms
Claims against directs & officers
Currency risk
Class action
Credit risk
Climatic
Terrorism
Fraud
Intellectual property erosion
Brand/trademarks
System failure through Y2K
Loss of reputation
Per cent
Source: Airmic/Lloyd’s
Aon Group Limited
38
Rethinking (re)insuranceRethinking (re)insurance
Why do we limit ourselves to traditional property / casualty exposures ?
Microsoft
Market capitalisation US$ 400 billion
Plant, property & equipment US$ 1.5 billion
Cash US$ 14 billion
Reputation risk
Total value of FTSE 100 companies was £1.37 trillion in 1998
“Goodwill” accounted for 71% of total value in 1998 (44% in 1988)Research by Interbrand and Citibank
Aon Group Limited
39
Rethinking (re)insuranceRethinking (re)insurance
Why do we need insurable interest ?
Example
On 4th July 1993 the Sumitomo Chemical Company plant in Niihama, Japan exploded
Spot prices for computer memory chips rose by 50% because Sumitomo plant made 65% of the world’s supply of epoxy cresol novolac resin used to seal most computer chips into their plastic packages
Sumitomo can buy property and business interruption cover on their plant
Question
Why can’t any other economically interested parties, e.g. computer manufacturers, buy the same insurance policy on the same terms and conditions?
Aon Group Limited
40
Rethinking (re)insuranceRethinking (re)insurance
Why does cover have to indemnity-based ?
Example
Oriental Land, operators of Disney themepark in Japan, have borrowed to finance further development of the site
Any disruption to revenues from existing site will impair their ability to service this debt
Answer
Oriental Land have issued a catastrophe bond to the capital markets that pays up to $100 million in the event of an earthquake in the region around the themepark
Trigger is occurrence of earthquake
Payment amount determined by epicentre and size of earthquake
Aon Group Limited
41
Concentric Re - Parametric triggerConcentric Re - Parametric trigger
If the event happens then client is paid, regardless of whether he has actually sustained a loss or not
The pay out is linked to the epicentre and magnitude of quake in three concentric rings (JMA scale)
6.5 inner circle,
7.1 inner ring,
7.6 outer ring
TokyoChiba
Boso
Peninsula
Izu
Peninsula
Yokohama
Inner Circle
Inner Ring
Outer Ring
Malhama
Aon Group Limited
42
Illustrative Terms and ConditionsIllustrative Terms and Conditions
6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
JMA Magnitude
Inner CircleInner Ring Outer Ring
Trigger: Physical, based on earthquake magnitude, location and depth• Magnitude - Sliding scale based on magnitudes > 6.5• Location - Three circles (Inner Circle, Middle Ring, Outer Ring) in the Southern Kanto region of Japan defined by latitude and longitude• Depth - Shallow earthquakes only, 60km or less• Reporting Agency - Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)• Development period - [30] days
Aon Group Limited
43
Traditional Risk Transfer, ART & Capital Market Traditional Risk Transfer, ART & Capital Market Solutions should be considered in combinationSolutions should be considered in combination
FacultativeReinsurance
ExcessReinsurance
Surplus Share
Retention Cat Retention
4th Cat
3rd Cat
2nd Cat
1st Cat
ART Equ
ity
Deb
t
Capital Markets
Aon Group Limited
44
8 Devonshire SquareLondon EC2M 4PL
Direct tel: 020 7216 3400
Direct fax: 020 7375 1760
Email: [email protected]
Any questions?