“Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing Fabless …...– Product and Business drivers Entrepreneurship success elements – Lifecycle and development schedule – Product positioning

TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSTCXTCX TECHNOLOGYCONNEX IONSReference: R.Kumar, “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill, 2008.

©2010 TCX Inc

“Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing Fabless Landscape”

Rakesh Kumar, Ph.D., Fellow IEEEOctober 7, 2010 Denver, CO.

[email protected]+1 858.945.3758

mailto:[email protected]


©2010 TCX Inc

Market demand continues to drive:Chip Complexity , Performance , Cost and Power

Design

Process

Package

BoardProduct

Semiconductors drive the Electronics food chain

It was that “Real men must have fabs”- but now…

…over 1300 Fabless companies…contribute over 20% of WW Semiconductor Revenue

…strong Eco-system available

…but the industry is at a cross-road atomistic levels business considerations dominate

Macro Trends:

ConnectivitySocial MediaTeenagers

…


©2010 TCX Inc

IDM: 6Fab-Lite: 8Fabless: 3


©2010 TCX Inc

What you will learn today– Semiconductor industry trends and fabless entrepreneurial perspectives

What we will NOT do today– Design new circuits– Invent new process technology

My background– Over 36 years in semiconductor industry –

Motorola, Unisys, Cadence, TCX– Over half in fabless companies– Outsourced technology and products for ~30 years– Consulting services for ~20 emerging and established companies over ~10 years

– VP, and President-elect of IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society– JSSC continues to be the #1 in downloads– SSCS sponsors/manages 4 major conferences, and technically co-sponsors many

others


©2010 TCX Inc

Successful Entrepreneurship in a changing Fabless Landscape

Semiconductor Landscape changes– Macro Trends– Product and Business drivers

Entrepreneurship success elements– Lifecycle and development schedule– Product positioning– Technology selection– Cost management– Supply chain management


©2010 TCX Inc

Expanding Applications Driving Semiconductor Landscape …Higher volume projections for widespread connectivity, communications,…

Memory, μPDrivers:

Computers

PC’s, Internet

Mobile Computing

Unit Volume: 1x

Mobile ProcessorsIntegrated SoC/SiP, Analog, RF, PM, …

Mobile Wireless

Voice, Data, MultimediaSocial Media,..

Computers Communications

Consumer

10x

Remote ProcessorsIntegrated Modules,

Sensors, Energy Scavenging

>100x

Mobile Life“The Internet of Everything”

…Prof. Tom Lee

Connecting People, Places, ThingsMobile Health

Appliance Configuration/ControlInteract

Digital Home, …


©2010 TCX Inc

Ericsson’s view of industry trends / inflection points

Ref: Joshipura, GSA Expo, September 26, 2010

~100 years ~10 y ~5 y


©2010 TCX Inc

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year Source: IC Knowledge, ISSCC, TCX

Tran

sist

ors

per C

hip,

MM

inim

um F

eatu

re S

ize,

um

More Moore…Transistor complexities have doubled every 2 years

System Co.’s – IBM, Hitachi, Sony, Philips, Unisys,…Semiconductor Co’s – Fairchild, T.I., Motorola, National, Intel, Toshiba, …

Fabless Co.’s

MF µP PC iNet Cellular

+43% / year

Moore’s Law 2x / 12mos…1965-70

2x / 18mos,,,1970-90’s2x / 24mos…now

-13% / year


©2010 TCX Inc

Technology and Business Challenges

Process Technology Challenges– Lithography– New Materials and Processes

– Strained Si, Lo K, Hi-K MG,..– New Device Structures

– FinFETs,..– …

Design and Co-design Challenges– Managing leakage and Power dissipation– DFM– …

Business Challenges– Large investment – capital, process cost, design cost…– Few players – users, fabs,…

Continued Scaling will be dominated by solutions to Business challenges…expect Technical solutions to be available when needed!


©2010 TCX Inc

Continued Moore Scaling is threatened ……cost effectiveness

is an issue

Rel

ativ

e C

ost P

er G

ate

(log

scal

e) -29%/year

Cost Reduction has driven the Technology Roadmap

.01

1

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Year Production

Source: ITRS

65 nm

45 nm

32/28 nm

22/20 nm

Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction are a must for continued scaling economics

Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction Litho, Optimized Process solutions & DD reduction are a must for continued scaling economicsare a must for continued scaling economics


©2010 TCX Inc

Source: ITRS

“More than Moore”

activities….positioned for continued industry growth Innovation &

entrepreneurial opportunities

Innovation & entrepreneurial opportunities


©2010 TCX Inc

PNP

PMIC

Spacer

Die #1 Die #2

Stacked Packages

Side-by-Side

Stacked Chips

Source: IMEC

3D Stacked IC’s

“More than Moore”

examples -

Innovative Packaging


©2010 TCX Inc

SYSTEM DESIGN

CHIP DESIGN

CHIPIMPLEMENTATION

CHIP LEVELSYSTEM DESIGN

TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT

HARDWARESOFTWARE

VERIFICATION

LOGIC DESIGNCIRCUIT DESIGN

IP [Intellectual Property]Design Tools

PHYSICAL DESIGNTAPEOUT

MASKSFAB

PACKAGE DEV ASSEMBLY

TEST

ARCHITECTURESPECIFICATIONVERIFICATION

PROCESSPACKAGINGASSEMBLY

PROD. SUPPORT

IDM approach now practiced at fewer companies….has given way to increased outsourcing, and a fabless supply chain

Outsourced activities

IDM

(Asset Intensive)

Fabless

(Traditional)

Fab-Lite

(Asset-Lite)

IFM

(Integrated Fabless

Manufacturing)

TimelineC

apita

l Inv

estm

ent


©2010 TCX Inc

Fabless model generates results…CAGR consistently better than semiconductor

Fabless Industry

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,0001987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009 F

($M

)

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

($M

)

Semi Industry Fabless Industry

Source: GSA

Semi Industry

Over the last 20 years, Fabless CAGR = 28% while Semiconductor CAGR = 8%


©2010 TCX Inc

QCT Revenue Leads the Fabless Industry …use of an Integrated Fabless Model (“IFM”) has been key

Source: IC Insights, 20100119


©2010 TCX Inc

2009 Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders ($M)…forecast

Source: iSuppli

Nov. 2009


©2010 TCX Inc

Number of Fabless Companies Worldwide by Year

70207

340409

485568

650750

850950

11001250 1300 1300 1300 13001350

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Bef

ore

1980

1981

-199

0

1991

-199

5

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

North America (600)

Asia (500)

Europe (150)

Israel (50)

Source: Global Semiconductor Alliance (formerly FSA)

Fabless Industry pioneered by innovators with ideas, but without wafer fabs

Worldwide Growth of Fabless Companies


©2010 TCX Inc

The I.C. entrepreneurship creation

Electronics

Idea

End-product

~1400 fabless IC companies worldwide

Software Implementation

License IP

Fabless I.C. company

Internal Development

at an IDM

Existing NewStandard,

Technology Market

Customer Base

..but, only a very small fraction of fabless start-

ups are successful!!

..but, only a very small fraction of fabless start-

ups are successful!!

Assemble the right team!


©2010 TCX Inc

Create your product as a “must-have” for the customer

Product PositioningDifferentiation

Create your product as a “must-have” for the customer

Product PositioningDifferentiation

Top reasons for failure of fabless start-ups

No customer engagement until it’s too lateNot understanding and meeting customer expectationsOverly aggressive product specificationsThe “kitchen-sink syndrome”Poor management of the Supply Chain

A systematic approach to planning and execution

A systematic approach to planning and execution


©2010 TCX Inc

Success elements –

product positioning

EXISTINGStandard, market, customer base

NEWStandard, market, customer base

Super-Integration Problem solutionsEvolutionary enhancements

– e.g. Cost reduction

Emerging standardNew features/capabilitiesNew interfaces“Revolutionary” enhancements

Will Impact Schedule, Technology Selection, Design Methodology,….


©2010 TCX Inc

IC DesignGlobal Planning

IC Production

Lifecycle of a fabless IC company –

activity highlites

“System” Architecture / Design / Simulation / Verification

ReferenceBoards

Customer Evaluation“Proof of Concept”

CustomerSamples

ReferenceDesign

FPGAImplementation

Customer EvaluationDesign Acceptance

ICPrototyping

High Level Design

Floor Planning

Chip Design

RTL NL

Physical Des

NL GDSII F A TProd. Ramp

IC Qualification

Hi volumeDebug

Analog IP Design

Series ASeries B

30 – 50% of TT$


©2010 TCX Inc

Typical ASIC Development Cycle

ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2

Software α

Software β

Software Prod.

Initial Silicon

Initial Silicon Ramp

Initial Product Ramp

Volume Production

Start Design Tapeout ESProd HW/SW LaunchQS

FPGARef Board


©2010 TCX Inc

a. At the System company:

Concept HW/SW Dev Demo Qual Trial Mkt Build Hi Volume


b. At the Fabless IC company:

ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume


LaunchStart Product

Design

Volume Orders

Start Design Tapeout ESProd HW/SW LaunchQS

FPGARef Board

System vs. IC Development Cycle


©2010 TCX Inc


product definition

Judicious selection of features and specificationsWhat are your product’s differentiating features?

– If process technology only…..go back to the ‘drawing board’!!Overly aggressive specifications (timing, gate density,….)Show a Product Roadmap

– Establish credibility

by delivering the first samples– on schedule– may not have all the ‘bells and whistles’

3210Introduction

Years

Initial Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product

Features, Performance

Cost Reduction

3210Introduction

Years

Initial Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product

Follow On Product



Cost ReductionCost Reduction

Avoid the “kitchen sink syndrome”

Avoid the “kitchen sink syndrome”


©2010 TCX Inc


technology selection

Avoid using the newest technology (process, design, packaging, …)– If that is the only way you can meet the specifications…..

Use the newest technology you can afford, and the oldest technology that lets you meet the specifications

ComplexityPerformance

Development CostRisk

Leading EdgeMainstreamMature

% D

esig

ns

Process Node MaturityMature Mainstream Leading Edge

500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm






% D

esig

ns


% D

esig

ns


500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm


500 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 nm



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

<= 90 130 180/150 250 350 >= 500Process Node, nm Source: FSA

% Revenue

200420052006


©2010 TCX Inc


supply chain selection

Technical due diligenceBusiness due diligence

– Will they accept your business?– Confidentiality documents– Quotes– Firm up the commitments


©2010 TCX Inc


cost management

Unit cost optimization

Development cost optimization

0.01

0.1

1

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

M Gates/Chip

cent

s / K

Gat

es

180 nm130 nm90 nm65 nm45 nm

05

101520253035404550

180 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm

NR

E, $

M

TSMC Info nV/Alt/SIA/IBSDes/VerSWTPEMasks Si


©2010 TCX Inc


other considerations

Sourcing methodology – FPGA, ASIC, COT,..Operations best practices – legal, financial, production control, customer support,…Quality and reliability – Quality Manual, build in quality from the start,…Schedule development and managementProgram management

– Internal development– Management of the distributed supply chain


©2010 TCX Inc

Summary and key take-aways

Semiconductor industry continues to be the hub of the electronics revolution– As long as there are innovators, and…– Teenagers and other users…– This will continue to be an exciting and challenging industry

Successful new product implementation can be a very rewarding experience– It’s not for the faint hearted!

For entrepreneurs…Best Technical idea ≠

Success

PLANNINGEXECUTION EXECUTION

EXECUTION

Create customer “must-have”

through Product Differentiation

Complex, but can be done!

Documents

“Successful Entrepreneurship in a Changing Fabless …...– Product and Business drivers Entrepreneurship success elements – Lifecycle and development schedule – Product positioning