“Keynote Paper – Market and Applications for · + High quality cutlery and tableware + Replacement of 300 in dish washers + High end appliances (energy saving) -Kitchen surfaces

“Keynote Paper – Market and Applications forFerritic Stainless Steels”

Markus MollSMR - Steel & Metals Market Research

Austria

CHARLES HATCHETT SEMINAR 2015

CBMM ©

1

© Copyright SMR GmbH 2015

http://www.smr.at- 2 -- 2 -

The Role of Niobium in Advanced Ferritic

Stainless Steels

Building a Sustainable Future

presented by

Markus A. Moll

Managing Director

Steel & Metals Market Research

July 15, 2015

London, UK

Confidentiality: This data collection was exclusively prepared.

It may not be copied, published or disclosed to third parties without the permission of SMR GmbH.


http://www.smr.at- 3 -

CO

NF

ER

EN

CE

S

20

15

Pro

jec

ts 2

01

4

Austria

GR

OU

P /

TE

AM

/ L

OC

AT

ION

by Type by Regionby ProductSTS LP,

18%

STS FP, 15%

Eng. Steels,

17%

Nickel Alloys,

14%Raw

Materials, 33%

Others, 4%

Europe, 55%

Americas, 12%

Asia, 24%

Others, 10%

Single Client, 70%

Multi Client, 20%

Conference,

10%

ASIA EUROPE AMERICA

in association with Metal Bulletin Events

Oliver

Spaltman

n

Benedikt

Blitz

Dr. Thomas

Windberger

Eveline

Pfeifer

Marku

s

Moll

Wolfgang

Lipp

Sonja

Posc

h

Alina

Racu

Ulrich

Weirather

Robert

Messmer

Jo

Zhu

Wilfred

Lee

Patricia

Moll

Ilona

Spaltman

n

Joy

Tio

Enduse Focused

Single-Client

www.smr.at

Multi-Client

Studies

www.steel-

intelligence.com

Stainless & Special Steel

Events

www.stainless-

conference.com

Werne

r

Bulla

Maximilian

Forster

Corinna

Siebenhüner

Market Intelligence for

High Value Materials

www.smr-premium.com

mailto:[email protected]






Table of Contents

1. The Big Picture

2. Focus on Raw Materials

3. Focus on Ferritic Stainless Steels


http://www.smr.at - 5 -

Global Stainless Steel – a story of successChina counts now for almost 50 % of the worldmarket !

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

30,000

33,000

36,000

39,000

42,000

45,000

48,000

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14p

[´0

00

to

nn

es

]

CAGR – Rest of the World:

+4 % p.a.

CAGR - China: +15 %

p.a.

* finished products, excl. Tube & Pipe

CAGR – World

5 % p.a.

20

15f

20

16f

20

17f

20

18f

20

19f

20

20f

CAGR – ROW

+2 % p.a.

CAGR - China:

+5 % p.a.

CAGR – World

3 % p.a.


http://www.smr.at - 6 -

Substitution Trends in the Stainless Steel IndustryIt‘s a bumpy ride, but ferritics are heading up!

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

40

0 s

eri

es

[in

%]

30

0 s

eri

es

[ in

% ]

Share - 400series

Share - 300series



-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

3,600

[‘0

00

to

nn

es

]

LongProducts

´Top 20` Global Stainless Steel Producers 2014 (est. volumes)

* incl. Fujian Desheng

** incl. Southwest Stainless

*** incl. NTK

**** incl. 13CrOCTG

15 of Top 20 are Asian!



Quarterly Profitability by MillThe industry is profitable again, but way below target levels

(1,600)

(1,400)

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

Op

era

tin

g P

rofi

t [

€/

t ]

Acerinox Group* Outokumpu* ATI Aperam

* EBIT

** EBT

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

Co

ns

olid

ate

d P

rofi

t in

[m

ill.

US

D]



Table of Contents

1. The Big Picture





Nickel – LME (3-month) Price & LME Stock LevelsNPI becomes the ‘invisible hand’ and a real game changer (Status: July 13, 2015)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

[´0

00

to

nn

es

]

[US

$ /

to

nn

e]

Nickel Price

(3-month)

Nickel

Price

Stocks

LME

Stocks

2020

10 $/lb

7,5 $/lb

Upper NPI Limit: 9$/lb

NPI kicks in massively

Lower NPI Limit: 5.5 $/lb

NPI Disappears

Indonesian Costs?



Chinese NPI Cost Advantage over Stainless Steel (18-8) ScrapNPI has lost its cost advantage over stainless steel scrap

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

[ $

/ t

]



Historic Ferro Chrome Price Development

Q2/15 price is at 1.08 $/lb same as in Q1/15

South Africa30%

China37%

Kazhakstan

11%India11%

Russia3%

Others8%



Table of Contents

1. The Big Picture





Top 15 Ferritic Producers 2014 (estimated crude steel basis)In volume terms, TISCO is a class of ist own

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

[to

nn

es

]

72% of the Global Production



China44%

Other Asia19%

Europe16%

Americas12%

ROW9%

Ferritic Stainless Steels Consumption by Region… Europe is getting marginalized

Market 2014:

7.8 mill t Asia = 63%



Market 2014:

37 mill. t

Global Stainless Steel Market by End Use Segment

Consumer Goods

& Catering

47%

Process

Equipment

25%

Automotive &

Heavy Transport

10%

ABC &

Infrastructure

15%Others

3%

30%

Share of 400 series19%

59%

11%



Industrial Usage13%

Consumer Durables41%

Transportation24%

Construction22%

Global End Use of Ferritic/Martensitic Stainless SteelsWhat is hot and what is not?

Market 2014:

7.8 mill t

+ 410 / 410S for refinery

columns

+ Commercial catering /

bakeries

- 13Cr OCTG

- 420 Pump shafts

+ Anti-fingerprint surfaces

+ High quality cutlery and tableware

+ Replacement of 300 in dish washers

+ High end appliances (energy saving)

- Kitchen surfaces use alternatives

- Plastic internals in budget-

appliances

+ Truck exhausts (Euro 6)

+ Decorative trim

+ Sensors (martensitic)

+ Fuel injection components (martensitic)

+ 409 Containers (only China)

- Long term: e-mobillity

+ Solar water heaters

+ Roofing / Facades (no coastal

build.)

+ Drinking water systems

+ Public infrastructure & streetware

- Stainless Sinks lose market share

- Elevators use increasingly

alternatives

- Plastics vs.stainless in press

fittings



Car Exhaust74%

Motorbike Exhaust

3%

Motorbike Brake

2%

Containers, Tankers

7%

Other Transportatio

n14%

Transportation System Trends

Car Exhaust

75%

Motorbike Exhaust

3%

Motorbike Brake

3%

Containers, Tankers

6%

Other Transportatio

n13%

2014

Market:

2.270kt

2023

Market:

3.050kt

+780kt



Ferritic / Martensitic Grade Structure 2014430 grade is still the ferritic ‘workhorse’

40914%

4107%

4203%

4290%

43055%

4341%

4362%

4397%

4417%

4443%

4450% 446

0%

others1%

2014



Grade Changes of 400 series (2014 – 2023)Grade 441, 444, 436 will grow faster than other grades

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

CA

GR

in

[%

]

Avg Non Nb

Avg. Nb

Avg All Stainless Grades



Our Events 2015

For more information please visit: www.stainless-conference.com / www.metalbulletin.com/events / www.amm.com/events

October 6 - 8, 2015

Vienna, Austria

14th International Stainless & Special Steel

Summitin association

with

October 27 - 28,

2015

Chicago, USA

29th Stainless & Its Alloys Conference

in association

with

http://www.amm.com/

http://www.amm.com/



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Documents

“Keynote Paper – Market and Applications for · + High quality cutlery and tableware + Replacement of 300 in dish washers + High end appliances (energy saving) -Kitchen surfaces