“Future of distributed home storage systems” Tobias Winter ... · 5/26/2020 · IGEF Support Office 26 May 2020 • New Delhi, India 12 California residential energy storage

IGEF Support Office 126 May 2020 • New Delhi, India

“Future of distributed home storage systems”Tobias Winter, New-Delhi, 26 May 2020


Stakeholder of IGEFSince 2006 IGEF is the platform for dialogue on energy issues for both Governments

Indo-German Energy Forum Support Office implemented by:


▪ Global market▪ Chemistry and costs▪ Drivers▪ New business models (prosumer, rVPP, …)▪ Outlook for India▪ Discussion

AgendaFrom a global perspective towards opportunities for India for distributed home storage systems


Behind the meter (BTM) battery storageThe battery increases the share of self-consumption of PV (Prosumer)

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DISCOM power to consumer load

PV self consumption

Back-up for consumer load

Excess PV generation

Interactionwith grid


Battery charging during solar generationTypical solar PV production and battery charging followed by discharging in the evening

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https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Sep/Behind-the-meter-batteries


Battery storage energy capacity growth, 2017-2030IRENA foresees 100% of BTM battery storage systems combined with solar rooftop (~56% of total)

Source: www.irena.org/publications/2019/Sep/Behind-the-meter-batteries

http://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Sep/Behind-the-meter-batteries


Annual global energy storage deploymentsUtility-scale and behind-the-meter energy storage deployments (Korea fire issues in 2019)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW

Other

Residential

Commercial

Utility-scale

Source: 1H 2020 Energy Storage Market OutlookNote: Excludes pumped hydro and compressed air energy storage projects. If multiple applications are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.


Annual global energy storage deploymentsHere with amount of MWh approx. (rule of thumb factor 2,x of capacity at present)



Investment in battery storage over USD 4 billionExponential growth especially for BTM systems with highest share by Korea in BTM in 2018

Source: IEA analysis with calculations based on Clean Horizon (2019), China Energy Storage Alliance (2019) and BNEF (2019).


Data source 2018(all storage)

2018(BTM only)

2019 (all storage)

2019 (BTM only)

3,1 GW8,0 GWh

1,9 GW (61%)-

--

--

3,4 GW8,0 GWh

1,5 GW (44%)4,2 GWh (53%)

2,7 GW5,4 GWh

1,1 GW (41%)2,6 GWh (48%)

--

--

30 GWh? (estimate)

--

Estimates for added energy storage in 2018 and 2019Combined utility-scale and behind-the-meter yearly deployment nearly all by battery

Sources: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-energy-integration/energy-storage#abstract, 1H 2020 Energy Storage Market Outlook, https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Apr/Global-Renewables-Outlook-2020, all exclude pumped hydro storage

https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-energy-integration/energy-storage#abstract

https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Apr/Global-Renewables-Outlook-2020


Global behind-the-meter (BTM) deployments 1,080 MW / 2,605 MWh of behind-the-meter storage was installed in 2019 (Korea fire issues)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW

Other

United States

United Kingdom

Korea (Republic)

Japan

Germany

China

Australia



California residential energy storage installations>50,000 residential storage systems will be sold in 2020, more than doubling the current market

Drivers:

▪ Wish to be

independent from

the grid (bushfire

shutdowns)

▪ generous subsidies

▪ time-of-use tariffs

▪ PV rooftop

installers eager to

upsell

Source: 1H 2020 Energy Storage Market Outlook by BNEF based on EIA Form 861M

Cumulative

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

estimated

Number of systems (thousand)


Japan behind-the-meter storage new buildAverage system size is around 7 kWh

749

104

183

404349

320372

686

4.5

5.96.5

6.8

7.6

8.5

6.7 6.6

6.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MWh

Commercial

Residential

Average size

Average size (kWh)

Source: 1H 2020 Energy Storage Market Outlook by BNEF based on BNEF and JEMA


German residential storage deployments and price180k systems most without subsidy, in 2019 approx. 200 MW installed

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual MWCumulative number of system (thousands)

Subsidized Unsubsidized Storage MW

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2013 2015 2017 2019

EUR per kWh

Source: 1H 2020 Energy Storage Market Outlook by BNEF based on BNEF and ISEA RWTH Aachen


Italy residential storage forecast (2018)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Units

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

MWh

Source: BNEF 2018, Residential Storage in Europe


Chemistry


Longterm test cycles (x) vs. left max. capacity (y in %) Lithium Iron Phosphate (Li-FePo) so far best suitable chemistry with low flammability and max. cycles

Li-NCA

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000

source data:

Li-NMC(for EVs)

Li-FePo4(for stationary storage without cobalt and with fire protection)

cycles (x in number)

rem

ain

ing

max

. cap

acit

y (y

in %

)

different cell technologies


▪ LFP increasingly displacing lead-based batteries▪ in stationary storage▪ in backup power▪ in low-speed vehicle applications (buses)

▪ LFP with significantly falling costs▪ LFP with significantly increasing cycle life

LFP is increasingly displacing lead-basedBattery pack energy density increasing, cycle life increasing, production cost decreasing

CATL promoting LFP battery for stationary storage applications with▪ 12,000-cycle life or▪ up to 20 years of stable system operation


Costs continue to fallBattery pack energy density increasing, cycle life increasing, production cost decreasing

Costs


CATL: LFP cells developed for Tesla cost < $60/kWhAnnouncement 18 May 2020: CATLs cell-to-pack technology reduces pack cost to < $80/kWh

Battery pack costs new graphic!

Note: LFP Prismatic cell, manufactured in China at a 26 GWh/year facility. Plant utilization 90%, scrappage 3%.

“The cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh, the sources said. CATL’s low-cobalt NMC battery packs are close to $100/kWh.”

+ increase in density and cycles

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Raw material costsEspecially for LFP low compared to NMC

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

LFP NMC (111) NMC (532) NMC (622) NMC (811) NCA NCA+

$/kWh

2017

2018

2019

Note: Costs in 2017 and 2018 based on material pricing from the 9th November each year. 2019 prices were collected on the 11th November. These are raw material costs only and don’t include costs associated with synthesizing active materials. Source: BloombergNEF 2019 Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey


Li-Ion battery pack prices keep fallingBattery pack price (real 2019 $/kWh) based on different cell chemistries (LFP 22%, NMC 52%, …)

Source: Energy Storage Systems Costs Survey 2019

1.183

917

721663

588

381

293219

180 156 135

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Battery pack price (real 2019 $/kWh)

22%

21%

8%11%

35%

23%

25% 18%13% 13%

-89%


Lithium-ion battery price survey: pack and cell splitCell is not pack, pack is not system incl. software plus inverter plus installation plus margin plus plus!

455400

255214

154 130 109

208

188

126

80

6550

47

663

588

381

293

219180

156

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

real 2019 $/kWh

Pack

Cell



Battery pack prices by sectorStationary storage pack prices approx. 45% more expensive than for passenger vehicles

140 147 150

218

373 374

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

E-bus &

commercial(China)

BEV Passenger

EV (av.)

Stationary

storage

E-bus &

commercial(ex. China)

PHEV HEV

$/kWh



Capital costs for a fully-installed 5kW/14kWh system…for residential sector

279 253 227 201 175 149 123 113 104 97 90 84

186 174

164 154

146 140

134 130 126 123 119 116

79 75

73 70

68 66

64 63 61 60 59 58

179

171 165

159 153

149 145

142 139 137 134 132

721

673

628

584 542

503 467

448 431 417 403 390

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

$/kWh

Installation

Other hardware

Inverter

Battery



Residential storage system excluding installation costsAvg. price around 800 $/kWh

Note: Any currency conversions took place based on exchange rate on October 8, 2019 Source: Solarquotes, EnergySage, survey participants

851

773

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

$/kWh

usable

$/kWhnameplate

$/kWh


Payback period for PV and storage deployed in 2018Residential Storage in Europe without subsidy: Uneconomic but growing?

0

5

10

15

20

25

UK Germany Italy

Years

Note: Simple payback period = out of pocket expense divided by cash flow expected in the first year. Without subsidy; 5kW PV system, 10kWh battery system. Source: BNEF 2018, Residential Storage in Europe


Drivers for BTM

Drivers


Drivers for BTM

1st Cost▪ System cost▪ Performance and finally electricity bill savings


Drivers for BTMEspecially if feed-in tariff is lower than cost of power from PV plus battery

2nd Feed-infor NEW PV connections going down

also:time-of-use tariffs even without PV


U.K. feed-in tariff step downGerman feed-in tariff for new PV systems is around 9 INR/kWh, cost per kWh from grid is 20 INR/kWh

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GBP/kWh

Source: BNEF based on Ofgem 2018


Drivers for BTMSubsidies are an important driver, but decreasing

3rd Subsidies(but decreasing)


In Germany KfW subsidy decreasingSince 2019 no more grants by KfW, but loans for storage and state specific subsidies continue

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Subsidy as percetage of capex

Source: and Note: 2015-2017 130 MW subsidized by KfW


Drivers for BTMWish to be independent from the grid

4th Independence▪ Wish to be independent from the grid

(e.g. bushfire shutdowns, backup) ▪ Stable power prices for approx. 20 years


Services provided by BTM battery storage systemsAs identified by IRENA, including advantages for the system operator or mini-grid operator

Savings on electricity bills

Demand charge reduction

Backup power

Increased self-consumption

Network investment deferral

Peak capacity investment deferral

Frequency regulation

Backup power

Smoothening of VRE

Replacing diesel generators

Source: IRENA 2019, https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Sep/Behind-the-meter-batteries

Advantages for the mini-grid

Advantages for the System Operator

Advantages for the Consumer



Thousends of players

Players


cell or the pack, it’s the

Leading players: German companies worldwideIts not the cell, it’s the module design and the battery management system which make the difference

…and many more!


Example: SonnenWith +50,000 residential systems a worldwide leader

Sonnenbatterie Eco 8.0/15▪ 15.0 kWh▪ 3.3 kW▪ LFP cells▪ Battery service life designed for 20 years▪ Safe because not hardly flamable▪ Warranty full 10 years▪ Cycles +10,000▪ Cost? Approx. INR 8 lakh + installation

(based on prices in Australia)

Source: sonnenBatterie-Datasheet-eco-8.0-ENG-190424


Example: Low cost but no rVPP and remote servicePylontech LiFePO4 Speicherpaket 48V 9,6kWh - US2000

Pylontech LiFePO4 48V 9,6kWh▪ 4x PylonTech LiFePo4 modul 48V 2,4 kWh

US2000 with BMS▪ 10 years warrangy, minimum 6000 cycles with

90% DoD▪ 1x Pylontech battery cables 2x2 Meter 25mm2▪ 3x Pylontech battery parallel cable▪ 1x Rack 19 Zoll, 8HE▪ Cost in Germany incl. 19% tax and shipping

approx. INR 3.7 lakh (final customer) + inverter + installation + + +

Source: https://greenakku.de

https://greenakku.de/


Example: Lithium based system made in Indiaby Vision Mechatronics

▪ Lithium iron yttrium phosphate (LiFeYPO4)

▪Warranty 4000 cycles @ 80% DOD(~10 years)

▪ Real life testing exceeded 9000 cycles

Source: Dr Rashi Gupta, https://vmechatronics.com/index.php

https://vmechatronics.com/index.php



1000ends of solutions available in Indiathrough members of IESA and BVES (strategic partners)

https://indiaesa.info/

https://www.bves.de/english/

https://indiaesa.info/

https://www.bves.de/english/


PV Port development for India by GIZCurrently under development by GIZ with Indian partners https://home-pv.ahasolar.in

Source: https://home-pv.ahasolar.in/pvport-store

PV Port with 4.8 kWh Lithium Battery▪ 2 x 48V 50 Ah Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries

(2 x 48 x 50 = 4.8 kWh), DOD 90-100%, 10 year design life at 0°C to 50°C operating temperature

▪ 6 x Glass Glass PV modules with frame (325 x 6 = 1950 Wp), resisting wind pressure up to 4000 N/m²

▪ 1 x Victron MultiPlus-II 48/3000/35-32 230V inverter (1700 - 6000 Wp)

▪ 1 x Victron BlueSolar MPPT 150/35▪ 1 x Zigbee current sensor▪ 1 x Venus GX on RaspPi, Zigbee receiver▪ Cables, plugs, DC cables, MC4 connectors

https://home-pv.ahasolar.in/pvport-store

https://home-pv.ahasolar.in/pvport-store


Business Models


Mix of benefits make the business modelOf increasing interest is the concept of residential virtual power plant concepts

Independence

Demand charge reduction

Backup power

Increased self-consumptionNetwork investment deferral

Peak capacity investment deferral

Frequency regulation

Source: IRENA 2019, https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Sep/Behind-the-meter-batteries



Aggregation and control of small-scale assetshttps://globe.sonnen.de/ virtual power plants with PV and residential storage

Internet (VPN)

Back-up Ancillary services

WholesaleCongestion

markets household batteries support grid stability (via grid or ancillary services)

Learn about rVPP:

Source:

https://globe.sonnen.de/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDMV_HY3zmw


World largest residential Virtual Power Planthttps://globe.sonnen.de/ with over +50,000 systems installed





Tesla most likely to start the same business soonMore than 1000 power walls interconnected in Australia, +50,000 systems planned

▪ First pilot projects finalised▪ Power wall works bi-directional▪ Tesla Autobidder 2.0 software for

electricity exchange trading▪ Tesla applied for electricity provider

license in UK▪ Upcoming vehicle generations

ready for V2G?

Image: tesla.com and https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder Source: https://electrek.co/2020/04/07/tesla-virtual-power-plant-powerwall-report/

https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/02/tesla-applies-uk-electricity-provider-licence/

https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder

https://electrek.co/2020/04/07/tesla-virtual-power-plant-powerwall-report/

https://www.scribd.com/document/455344844/AEMO-Knowledge-Sharing-Stage-1-Report#download&from_embed


rVPP requires deregulation, example of city of BerlinAll over the world DISCOMs become innovative or innovative start-ups become DISCOMS

Free choice of service provider

for meter

rVPP is developing fast possible because of▪ segregation of carriage (distribution network)▪ from the content (electricity supply business)

Around 110 electricity provider in each

geographical point of Germany

Free choice of service provider for behind the meter assets

Image source: https://www.securemeters.com (meter) and thenounproject.com (icons), buttons by masspowerchoice.com

Approx. 65% (estimate) of electricity traded at exchange in Germany



Trading electricity between German neighbours Research project BloGPV using blockchain technology in local virtual storage network

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wAljOJlEvY and https://www.digitale-technologien.de/DT/Redaktion/EN/Standardartikel/SSWProjekte/BloGPV_EN.html

Financed by:

https://blogpv.net/#ziele

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wAljOJlEvY

https://www.digitale-technologien.de/DT/Redaktion/EN/Standardartikel/SSWProjekte/BloGPV_EN.html


Buy electricity from your neighbour…at https://vandebron.nl/ How liberal can India’s electricity system become?

https://vandebron.nl/


In Utrecht neighbours sell themselves roof electricityLomboXnet www.lomboxnet.nl part of breakthrough in renewables

Source: http://www.lomboxnet.nl/ssc

http://www.lomboxnet.nl/ssc

http://www.lomboxnet.nl/ssc


Vehicle to House (V2H) or bidirectional chargingSmartfox Energiemanager makes it possible since years already

Marcus Fendt, The Mobility House: “We have found that +/- 10% charging and discharging at 50% charge level of car batteries has nearly no effect on the lifetime of the battery.”

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI-QEUbkpeQ&list=PLXo7pYj5F3cHQjcJU713URcEd-PjRhZA-&index=14&t=1857s

https://www.mobilityhouse.com/usa_en/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UI-QEUbkpeQ&list=PLXo7pYj5F3cHQjcJU713URcEd-PjRhZA-&index=14&t=1857s


Flexible fast charging station of Volkswagen GroupUsed EV batteries find its way into mobile EV charging boosters

Source: https://www.volkswagenag.com/de/news/2019/01/volkswagen-group-components-to-start-series-production-of-flexib.html

https://www.volkswagenag.com/de/news/2019/01/volkswagen-group-components-to-start-series-production-of-flexib.html


India?


Backup / Captive / Self-ConsumptionMarket opportunity for alternatives (approx. +5 GW annual growth)

~120 GW


Power tariffs in India for final customersDepends on the state and the type of the consumer! RE + battery competetive?

State - tariff class US$ct. / kWh

City of Delhi -tariff for industries

~13

State of Madhya Pradesh -tariff for residential homes

~11

State of Maharashtra -tariff for commercial customers (Shopping center, call center, etc.)

~15


Daily generation from solar in India 2019MWp generation, 365 days

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Source: https://carbontracker.in based on data from MERIT India, last accessed 20th Oct. 2019

https://carbontracker.in/


Daily generation from solar in Germany 2019Share of total electricity consumption, 365 days

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Daily generation from solar in India 2019MWp generation, 365 days

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Source: https://carbontracker.in based on data from MERIT India, last accessed 20th Oct. 2019

https://carbontracker.in/


193375

678

1142

1837

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

rooftop solar capacity addition in [MW]

Historic solar rooftop capacity addition in India+1,8 GW in 2019

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PV rooftop solution for India?Glas glas modules allow light to pass and plants can grow

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धन्यवाद

Vielen Dank!Thank you!


Literature


2000 year old Baghdad Battery used for home storage?Some scientists believe it was used for electroplating others believe it was used for electrotherapy

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Click here please and find out:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baghdad_Battery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVf-V2kV1-A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVf-V2kV1-A


Literature recommendations

IRENA 2019: Behind the meter Batteries BNEF 2020: Getting to $100/kWh

BNEF Talk 2020Lithium Ion Battery CostsGetting to $100/kWh

Elsevier 2020: Journal of Energy Storage


https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Sep/IRENA_BTM_Batteries_2019.pdf

https://vimeo.com/420741648

https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S2352152X19309442?token=1AB9218450F81423584D89DD3001E58968D4D924350976820CDADC6585BC63BCCACBF0893B63B86E5F458F985AB170EB


धन्यवाद

Vielen Dank!Thank you!

Documents

“Future of distributed home storage systems” Tobias Winter ... · 5/26/2020 · IGEF Support Office 26 May 2020 • New Delhi, India 12 California residential energy storage