ANZ Research New Zealand Weekly Focus 2.1 3.1 2 · 2020. 7. 17. · REINZ Housing Market Data – January (11-15 February). With the RBNZ’s loan-to-value ratio restrictions having

11 February 2019

ANZ Research

New Zealand Weekly Focus

This is not personal advice.

It does not consider your

objectives or circumstances.

Please refer to the

Important Notice.

Contents

Economic Overview 2

Data Event Calendar 8

Local Data Watch 11

Key Forecasts 12

Important Notice 14

NZ Economics Team

Sharon Zollner

Chief Economist Telephone: +64 9 357 4094

[email protected]

Natalie Denne Desktop Publisher

Telephone: +64 4 802 2217 [email protected]

Liz Kendall Senior Economist


Susan Kilsby

Agriculture Economist

Telephone: +64 4 382 1992

[email protected]

Sandeep Parekh Rates/FX Strategist


Kyle Uerata

Economist Telephone: +64 4 802 2357

[email protected]

Miles Workman Economist

Telephone: +64 4 382 1951

[email protected]

Contact

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter

@sharon_zollner

@ANZ_Research (global)

Striking a chord

Economic overview

The RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is this week’s headline act. Since November,

the labour market has flat-lined and the growth outlook has a duller pitch, though

domestic inflation has been a little stronger. Global data has struck a softer note and

risks have increased sharply, with central banks turning more dovish in concert. We

expect the RBNZ will join the chorus this week, employing a similarly dovish tone

that echoes the tenor of other central banks and market pricing, which has moved to

price in a good chance of a rate cut, reflecting the changing balance of risks. That

said, a dovish stance so soon from the RBNZ is not a necessary ingredient of our

November cut call. The data and market pricing may well strike higher and lower

notes, but we think the case for more monetary stimulus will become evident in

time.

Chart of the week

Bond yields have moved lower as markets contemplate the possibility of rate cuts.

2-year Government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

The ANZ heatmap

Variable View Comment Risks around our view

GDP 2.5% y/y

for 2020 Q1

Growth is past its peak. We see

growth averaging 2.5% over the

next couple of years. Global factors are the main risk.

Unemployment

rate

4.2% for

2020 Q1

The labour market is “tight”, but

appears to have stabilised. Wage growth to continue increasing only

gradually.

OCR 1.00% in

March 2020

We see the next move in the OCR

as a cut and have pencilled it in for November 2019, with two to

follow.

CPI 1.9% y/y

for 2020 Q1

Core inflation is expected to

remain broadly stable over the next couple of years, with OCR

cuts supporting a gradual rise over the medium term.

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19

%%

New Zealand (LHS) Australia (LHS) United States (RHS)

Negative

Neutral

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Positive

Down

Neutral

Up

Negative

Neutral

Positive

mailto:[email protected]




Economic overview

ANZ New Zealand Weekly Focus | 11 February 2019 2

The MPS is the

headline act

this week.

We expect the

RBNZ will

endorse the

shift in market

pricing.

Summary

The RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is this week’s headline act. Since November, the

labour market has flat-lined and the growth outlook has a duller pitch, though

domestic inflation has been a little stronger. Global data has struck a softer note and

risks have increased sharply, with central banks turning more dovish in concert. We

expect the RBNZ will join the chorus this week, employing a similarly dovish tone that

echoes the tenor of other central banks and market pricing, which has moved to price

in a good chance of a rate cut, reflecting the changing balance of risks. That said, a

dovish stance so soon from the RBNZ is not a necessary ingredient of our November

cut call. The data and market pricing may well strike higher and lower notes, but we

think the case for more monetary stimulus will become evident in time.

Forthcoming events

REINZ Housing Market Data – January (11-15 February). With the RBNZ’s loan-

to-value ratio restrictions having been loosened, we may see a bit of a bump.

ANZ Truckometer – January (Tuesday 12 February, 10:00am).

ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge – January (Tuesday 12 February, 1:00pm).

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (Wednesday 13 February, 2:00pm). Risks

warrant a more dovish stance, consistent with market pricing.

RBNZ Inflation Expectations – Q1 (Wednesday 13 February, 3:00pm). While

they will be overshadowed by the MPS, we expect expectations remain anchored.

Food Price Index – January (Thursday 14 February, 10:45am). Expect a lift as

December specials wash out and fruit and vegetable prices rise.

Net Migration – December (Friday 15 February, 10:45am). The cycle is expected

to continue easing gradually as earlier arrivals continue to cycle out.

What’s the view?

There’s a packed line-up of economic data in the week ahead, but the headline act will

be the RBNZ February Monetary Policy Statement and press conference on Wednesday

afternoon (note the new timing of 2pm).

We expect that the RBNZ will leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. But we think

they will employ a more dovish tone, acknowledging the emerging downside risks and

implicitly endorsing the direction of current market pricing, which is now pricing in 90%

chance of a 25bp cut by year end (figure 1). In our view, this is an appropriate reflection

of the emerging downside risks, particularly (though not exclusively) on the global front,

and we think the RBNZ will not feel any pressure to send strong signals out of harmony

with that.

Figure 1. Current market pricing for the OCR

Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Our call that an OCR cut will be required by year end, with two follow-up cuts in early

2020, is not in fact based on these global risks coming to fruition, but rather a

Economic overview


A dovish RBNZ

as soon as next

week wasn’t

built into our

rate call.

We think the

OCR track will

be tweaked

flatter.

The labour

market is flat.

Labour demand

has moderated.

Non-tradable

inflation

surprised on

the upside.

continuing – but gentle – loss of momentum in the domestic economy over this year,

that will mean the RBNZ is not confident of sustainably hitting the inflation target

midpoint over the medium term. As such, it isn’t a necessary component of our rate

call that the RBNZ starts singing in the dovish chorus so soon. The data – and market

pricing – may strike both higher and lower notes as we go, but ultimately it’ll become

clear that the economy is falling behind the beat and needs further monetary stimulus.

For now, we believe we’ll see the published OCR track tweaked flatter, if not flat.

Consistent with this, we also expect to see the RBNZ reintroduce a phrase along the

lines of “the next move in the OCR could be up or down”. This would be a shift in tone

from November, when the RBNZ softened its previously dovish tenor to be more

neutral. At that time, they removed reference to the possibility of the next move being

a cut, and continued to incorporate eventual OCR increases in their projections, albeit

a long way off.

So what’s changed since then?

The labour market is tight, but not to the extent previously thought.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in Q4, reflecting some payback from the sharp fall

to 4.0% last quarter. Looking through the volatility, the labour market has flat-lined, with

both underemployment and underutilisation plateauing in a trend sense (figure 2). And

while the labour market is close to the target of maximum sustainable employment,

underlying wage inflation (at ~1.8% y/y) remains slow to improve, which is a little

problematic for the inflation target.

More important for the RBNZ than the strong starting point for the labour market (which

reflects previous strength in the economy) is where it is headed. Will it stay in mildly

inflationary territory as the RBNZ needs it to? Here too there are some troubling signs.

The best may be behind us, with measures of labour demand hitting a lower pitch as the

economy has slowed. HLFS employment slowed from 2.8% to 2.3% y/y in the last three

months of last year. And QES filled jobs paint an even softer picture of labour demand,

up a mere 1.3% y/y. Firms are certainly reporting that it is difficult to find skilled labour,

but they are also wary about hiring.

Figure 2. Unemployment and underemployment

Source: Statistics NZ

Domestic inflation has been stronger…

Also reflecting previous strength in the economy, non-tradable inflation has pushed

higher – and indeed was stronger than the RBNZ pencilled in at the November MPS

(0.7% versus 0.4% q/q). Non-tradable inflation tends to be quite persistent, so this

upside surprise may well have some momentum in the RBNZ’s updated projections, at

least in the short term. Indeed, we too think that non-tradable inflation will nudge a

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

2

3

4

5

6

7

% (s

a)

% (

sa)

Unemployment (LHS) Underutilisation (RHS)

Economic overview


The outlook for

capacity

pressures is

key.

Growth

continues to

slow.

This will

challenge the

RBNZ’s outlook.

little higher in coming quarters on the back of previous strength in the economy. We’ll

get a further read on how non-tradable inflation is tracking in Q1 from our ANZ

Monthly Inflation Gauge out later this week.

But the RBNZ’s view on the medium-term outlook for domestic inflation will depend on

its view on capacity pressures (the output gap) and, in particular, the outlook for

growth. Revisions mean GDP was stronger than previously thought over 2017, which

could see the historical view of resource pressures nudged a bit higher. But the labour

market has stabilised and GDP fell short of the RBNZ’s expectations in Q3 (at 0.3%

versus 0.7% q/q), which could see the starting point output gap a little lower.

Ironically enough the upward revisions to GDP may not be net good news in terms of

the odds of getting inflation sustainably higher. Growth was stronger than they

thought over 2017 and still core inflation has improved only slowly. The RBNZ may

conclude that a still-greater acceleration in GDP growth is necessary to achieve a

sustained lift in inflation. In the lingo, it is possible that the RBNZ’s estimate of

potential growth is revised higher (from ~3% y/y).

…but the growth outlook isn’t hitting the right notes.

Annual growth has softened from 3.4% in late 2017 to just 2.6% in Q3 2018, pointing

to a clear loss of growth momentum over last year. And forward-looking indicators

point to further softening (figure 3). Labour hours provide a partial gauge of GDP

(especially the services sector) and present downside risk to the RBNZ’s last-published

GDP pick of 0.5% q/q for Q4. The ANZ Truckometer also points to modest growth in

Q4 (with January’s read due on Tuesday), and surveyed business activity points to

GDP in the 2-2½% y/y range.

Figure 3. Measures of hours worked/paid and GDP

Source: Statistics NZ

The view on Q4 GDP may wax and wane as partial data rolls in, and we expect a small

bounce-back after Q3’s weak print (our early pick is 0.6% q/q; 2.5% y/y). But risks

are skewed to the downside, and growth may be waning a little sooner and further

than we were anticipating.

The weight of evidence presents a clear challenge to the RBNZ’s November MPS

forecast that growth will accelerate to 3½% y/y by the end of 2019. As such, we

expect that the RBNZ will revise down their starting point and short-term outlook for

growth. For the record, we see growth closer to 2½% y/y this year (figure 4).

Resource pressures appear to be abating somewhat, with GDP growth having waned,

and this trend looks set to continue – making a sustainable increase in domestic

inflation more challenging to achieve. So while the RBNZ may revise up the starting

point and near-term outlook for non-tradable inflation this week, a softer outlook for

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Quart

erl

y %

change

QES hours paid (Q2 average)

HLFS hours worked (Q4 average)

GDP (Q2 average)

Economic overview


Resource

pressures

appear to be

abating.

We see GDP of

around 2½%

y/y.

The housing

market has

been pretty

steady.

But more

headwinds may

be looming.

The global

outlook has

softened.

growth is expected to result in weaker capacity pressures, weighing on the outlook for

non-tradable inflation over the medium term and thus resulting in a flatter forecast

track for the OCR.

Figure 4. ANZ GDP forecast

Source: Statistics NZ, ANZ Research

We have been banging on the same drum for some time about how we expect GDP to

struggle to grow above trend from here. Fiscal stimulus is expected to provide a small

and short-lived boost. It’s true that households remain in good cheer and seemingly

willing to spend, with interest rates still low. But the impetus to growth from

construction and population growth is slowing, while the overall cycle is looking tired.

In fact, population growth may have slowed more than previously thought, based on

Statistics NZ’s new migration data. This data is new and subject to revision, so we are

treating it with a degree of caution at this stage (the next read is out on Friday). But it

suggests softer population growth that could weigh on actual (and potential) growth

and lead to a softer housing market than currently anticipated, with flow-on effects to

household spending. For now, looking through recent volatility, the housing market

remains fairly steady. We expect to see a small bump in January’s REINZ housing

market data (out sometime this week) on the back of the loosening in the RBNZ’s

recent loosening of loan-to-value ratio restrictions. But overall, we see the housing

market continuing to lose steam gradually.

A number of additional headwinds may also be on the horizon. Credit conditions look

set to tighten (through higher loan pricing or rationing of available loans) due to

probable increases in bank capital requirements, with a five-year transition period. We

don’t expect that these changes will be incorporated in the RBNZ’s projections this

week as they are currently only proposals. The RBNZ is likely to shy away from

discussing implications of the proposals for monetary policy until they are a done deal.

But if implemented, they will present another headwind to an economy already

grappling with a slowing outlook. The possibility of a capital gains tax, though not an

immediate prospect, may also weigh on housing demand (from property investors),

with recommendations from the Tax Working Group expected later this month.

Global growth has hit a softer note…

The global outlook has clearly weakened since November, with a softening in the data

flow across a range of economies, particularly relating to trade and manufacturing.

Most notably, the data out of both China and Australia, who together take 40% of our

goods exports, has turned sharply, with consumers in both countries showing some

signs of strain.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

% c

hange

Quarterly Annual

Forecasts

Economic overview


Export prices

continue to

defy gravity.

Global central

banks have

turned dovish.

The TWI is

higher than

expected.

When global growth slows, the New Zealand economy inevitably keeps in rhythm.

Weaker growth in our trading partners will lead to softer export demand and imported

inflation than otherwise, though so far New Zealand’s commodity prices are showing

few signs of quavering, in part due to supply dynamics. We remain constructive on the

outlook for our export prices, especially in a long-term sense, but the longer and more

protracted the global slowdown proves – especially the slowing in China – the more

likely it is that it starts to weigh on prices for our exports (figure 5).

Figure 5. ANZ Commodity Price Index and Chinese M1 money supply growth

Source: Statistics NZ, ANZ Research

…and central banks have turned more dovish in concert.

Risks of a sharper global slowdown are evident, particularly given the geopolitical

overlay and the uncertainty about trade policies. Closer to home, the recent

weakening in the Australian data has been especially abrupt. Reflecting the softer

global data pulse and increasing downside risks, dovishness from central banks has

become an emerging theme, even though global growth forecasts are so far being

tweaked rather than slashed. The PBOC has been easing policy to support the Chinese

economy, and the US Federal Reserve and the RBA have abruptly taken overtly more

dovish stances. Short-term yields have moved accordingly (figure 6).

Figure 6: 2-year Government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

The exchange rate is slightly sharp.

The exchange rate is currently higher than the RBNZ projected in the November

Statement; the TWI is sitting at 73.3, almost 2% above where the RBNZ expected it to

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Annual %

Annual %

, 3-m

onth

avg

China M1 adv. 6 months (LHS)

ANZ Commodity price index (RHS)

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19

%%

New Zealand (LHS) Australia (LHS) United States (RHS)

Economic overview


Tradable

inflation is

softer.

A cut could

happen sooner

on global

developments.

But there are

upside risks

too.

Developments

reaffirm our cut

call.

be, albeit back where it was at the time of their last projections. This reflects the

influence of lower global interest rates and still-elevated export prices. We expect that

the currency will be a key shock-absorber in the event of further domestic slowing, but

the expected decline may be more gradual than would have been the case, on account

of a weaker outlook for global interest rates.

Some of the higher TWI likely reflects the recent increase in dairy prices, though the

higher-than-expected exchange rate is likely to weigh on the RBNZ’s outlook for both

net exports and tradable inflation to some degree, particularly if the higher starting point

is expected to persist as the RBNZ generally assumes. Adding to that, the starting point

for tradable inflation was much softer than the RBNZ expected in Q4 (at -0.4% q/q

versus -0.1%). We expect the RBNZ will look through such temporary fluctuations, but

the possibility that weakness in tradable inflation could persist over the medium term on

account of a higher-than-expected exchange rate and lower import prices isn’t helpful.

We will learn more about whether weakness in tradable inflation has been sustained into

2019 with food prices for January out this week (we expect a seasonal lift in the month

as December specials wash out and fruit and vegetable prices rise).

There are risks to our view in both directions.

Overall, developments since the November MPS justify a more cautious tone from the

RBNZ on Wednesday – and OCR cuts by the end of the year, should the outlook play out

as we expect. But we see risks in both directions. It is possible that the RBNZ cut sooner

than we expect, as a result of increasing global risks. We think this is a risk that the

RBNZ will take seriously; it is likely to feature in the risk scenarios presented this week,

and could contribute at the margin to a lower OCR track.

Of course, we are cognisant of risks in the other direction – and the RBNZ will remain so

too. The key upside risk that stands out is the possibility that rising costs start to

generate more inflation than we currently expect, which could see the RBNZ more

inclined to stay on pause for longer – especially if inflation expectations start to creep

higher. We’ll get the latest read from the RBNZ’s Survey of Inflation Expectations this

week, with medium-term measures expected to be anchored, though we may see a dip

in short-term measures on soft headline inflation.

We’d emphasise, though, that even if inflation does lift a little further, a persistent rise

won’t happen without sustained or increasing resource pressures – and that’s not our

forecast. More likely, in our view, is the possibility that inflation pressures dissipate as

growth momentum wanes.

All up, recent developments reaffirm our OCR call.

Putting it all together, while it’s not been one-way traffic (and we don’t expect it to be so

going forward either), recent developments serve to reaffirm our OCR call. We see a

clear case for the RBNZ to endorse market pricing and move to a more dovish stance in

concert with other global central banks. We expect they will make it clear that OCR cuts

are a distinct possibility, though hardly a matter of urgency as things stand, with the

economy chugging along (albeit a little more slowly) and inflation gradually rising.

On Wednesday we’ll learn if the RBNZ is singing from the same hymn-sheet.

Local data

Building Consents – December. Increased 5.1% m/m, finishing Q4 with a partial

rebound from Q3’s weak print.

ANZ Commodity Price Index – January. Rose 2.1% m/m, driven by dairy.

GlobalDairyTrade auction. Rose 6.7% on tighter global supply, led by whole milk

powder.

Labour Market Statistics – Q4. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0%,

with labour demand measures softening and wage inflation stable.

Data calendar


Date Country Data/event Mkt. Last NZ time

11-Feb UK GDP QoQ - Q4 P 0.3% 0.6% 22:30

UK GDP YoY - Q4 P 1.4% 1.5% 22:30

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn - Dec -£11892M -£12023M 22:30

UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn - Dec -£3800M -£3925M 22:30

UK Trade Balance - Dec -£3000M -£2904M 22:30

UK Industrial Production MoM - Dec 0.1% -0.4% 22:30

UK Industrial Production YoY - Dec -0.5% -1.5% 22:30

UK Manufacturing Production MoM - Dec 0.2% -0.3% 22:30

UK Manufacturing Production YoY - Dec -1.1% -1.1% 22:30

UK GDP (MoM) - Dec 0.0% 0.2% 22:30

UK Index of Services MoM - Dec 0.0% 0.3% 22:30

UK Index of Services 3M/3M - Dec 0.4% 0.3% 22:30

CH Foreign Reserves - Jan $3080.00B $3072.71B UNSPECIFIED

NZ REINZ House Sales YoY - Jan -- -12.9% 11-15 Feb

CH Money Supply M2 YoY - Jan 8.2% 8.1% 11-15 Feb



CH New Yuan Loans CNY - Jan 3000.0B 1080.0B 11-15 Feb

12-Feb NZ ANZ Truckometer Heavy MoM - Jan -- -4.1% 10:00

NZ Card Spending Retail MoM - Jan 1.4% -2.3% 10:45

NZ Card Spending Total MoM - Jan -- -1.9% 10:45

AU ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence Index - 10-Feb -- 118.1 11:30

NZ ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge - Jan -- -0.1% 10:00

AU Home Loans MoM - Dec -2.0% -0.9% 13:30

AU Investment Lending - Dec -- -4.5% 13:30

AU Owner-Occupier Loan Value MoM - Dec -- -1.4% 13:30

AU NAB Business Conditions - Jan -- 2 13:30

AU NAB Business Confidence - Jan -- 3 13:30

13-Feb US NFIB Small Business Optimism - Jan 103.0 104.4 00:00

US JOLTS Job Openings - Dec 6832 6888 04:00

NZ QV House Prices YoY - Jan -- 3.2% 05:00

AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index - Feb -- 99.6 12:30

AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM - Feb -- -4.7% 12:30

JN PPI MoM - Jan -0.2% -0.6% 12:50

JN PPI YoY - Jan 1.0% 1.5% 12:50

NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate - Feb 1.75% 1.75% 12:00

NZ RBNZ 2Yr Inflation Expectation - Q1 -- 2.03% 15:00

UK CPI MoM - Jan -0.7% 0.2% 22:30

UK CPI YoY - Jan 2.0% 2.1% 22:30

UK CPI Core YoY - Jan 1.9% 1.9% 22:30

UK RPI MoM - Jan -0.8% 0.4% 22:30

UK RPI YoY - Jan 2.7% 2.7% 22:30

UK PPI Input NSA MoM - Jan 0.2% -1.0% 22:30

UK PPI Input NSA YoY - Jan 3.8% 3.7% 22:30

UK PPI Output NSA MoM - Jan 0.0% -0.3% 22:30

UK PPI Output NSA YoY - Jan 2.2% 2.5% 22:30

UK PPI Output Core NSA MoM - Jan 0.2% 0.2% 22:30

UK PPI Output Core NSA YoY - Jan 2.3% 2.5% 22:30

Continued on following page

Data calendar



UK House Price Index YoY - Jan 2.5% 2.8% 22:30

EC Industrial Production SA MoM - Dec -0.4% -1.7% 23:00

EC Industrial Production WDA YoY - Dec -3.3% -3.3% 23:00

14-Feb US MBA Mortgage Applications - 8-Feb -- -2.5% 01:00

US CPI MoM - Jan 0.1% -0.1% 02:30

US CPI YoY - Jan 1.5% 1.9% 02:30

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM - Jan 0.2% 0.2% 02:30

US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY - Jan 2.1% 2.2% 02:30

US Monthly Budget Statement - Dec -$11.0B -$204.9B 08:00

NZ Food Prices MoM - Jan -- -0.2% 10:45

JN GDP SA QoQ - 4Q P 0.4% -0.6% 12:50

JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ - 4Q P 1.4% -2.5% 12:50

JN GDP Nominal SA QoQ - 4Q P 0.4% -0.7% 12:50

JN GDP Deflator YoY - 4Q P -0.4% -0.3% 12:50

AU Consumer Inflation Expectation - Feb -- 3.5% 13:00

UK RICS House Price Balance - Jan -20% -19% 13:01

GE Wholesale Price Index YoY - Jan -- 2.5% 20:00

GE GDP SA QoQ - 4Q P 0.1% -0.2% 20:00

GE GDP NSA YoY - 4Q P 0.8% 1.1% 20:00

GE GDP WDA YoY - 4Q P 0.7% 1.1% 20:00

EC Employment QoQ - 4Q P -- 0.2% 23:00

EC Employment YoY - 4Q P -- 1.3% 23:00

EC GDP SA QoQ - 4Q P 0.2% 0.2% 23:00

EC GDP SA YoY - 4Q P 1.2% 1.2% 23:00

CH Imports YoY - Jan -10.7% -7.6% UNSPECIFIED

CH Exports YoY - Jan -3.2% -4.4% UNSPECIFIED

CH Trade Balance - Jan $34.50B $57.06B UNSPECIFIED

15-Feb US PPI Final Demand MoM - Jan 0.1% -0.2% 02:30

US PPI Final Demand YoY - Jan 2.1% 2.5% 02:30

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM - Jan 0.2% -0.1% 02:30

US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY - Jan 2.5% 2.7% 02:30

US Initial Jobless Claims - 9-Feb 225k 234k 02:30

US Continuing Claims - 2-Feb 1740k 1736k 02:30

US Retail Sales Advance MoM - Dec 0.1% 0.2% 02:30

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM - Dec 0.0% 0.2% 02:30

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas - Dec 0.4% 0.5% 02:30

US Retail Sales Control Group - Dec 0.4% 0.9% 02:30

US Business Inventories - Nov 0.2% 0.6% 04:00

NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI - Jan -- 55.1 10:30

NZ Net Migration SA - Dec -- 2480 10:45

CH CPI YoY - Jan 1.9% 1.9% 12:30

CH PPI YoY - Jan 0.3% 0.9% 12:30

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM - Jan 0.2% -1.3% 22:30

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY - Jan 3.2% 2.6% 22:30

UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM - Jan 0.2% -0.9% 22:30

UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY - Jan 3.4% 3.0% 22:30

EC Trade Balance SA - Dec €15.7B €15.1B 23:00

EC Trade Balance NSA - Dec -- €19.0B 23:00

CH BoP Current Account Balance - Q4 P -- $23.3B UNSPECIFIED

Continued on following page

Data calendar



16-Feb US Empire Manufacturing - Feb 7.0 3.9 02:30

US Import Price Index MoM - Jan -0.1% -1.0% 02:30

US Import Price Index YoY - Jan -1.5% -0.6% 02:30

US Export Price Index MoM - Jan -0.1% -0.6% 02:30

US Export Price Index YoY - Jan -- 1.1% 02:30

US Industrial Production MoM - Jan 0.1% 0.3% 03:15

US Capacity Utilization - Jan 78.7% 78.7% 03:15

US Manufacturing (SIC) Production - Jan 0.0% 1.1% 03:15

US U. of Mich. Sentiment - Feb P 93.5 91.2 04:00

US Total Net TIC Flows - Dec -- $31.0B 10:00

Key: AU: Australia, EC: Eurozone, GE: Germany, JN: Japan, NZ: New Zealand, UK: United Kingdom, US: United States, CH: China.

Source: Dow Jones, Reuters, Bloomberg, ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited. All $ values in local currency. Note: All surveys are preliminary and subject to change

Local data watch


Domestic growth momentum has decelerated and global risks are heightened. The outlook for a stabilisation in

medium-term inflation around target is looking less assured, and we expect the next move in the OCR to be a cut.

The resilience of domestic data, the trend in inflation and global developments will all bear watching closely.

Date Data/event Economic

signal Comment

11-15 Feb REINZ housing market data

– January Bump

With the RBNZ’s loan-to-value ratio restrictions being

loosened, we may see a bit of a bump.

Tue 12 Feb

(10:00am) ANZ Truckometer - January -- --

Tue 12 Feb

(10:45am)

Electronic Card Transactions

– January Flip a coin

ECT hasn’t been a great indicator of consumption or retail

spending recently. We are inclined to discount it.

Tue 12 Feb

(1:00pm)

ANZ Inflation Gauge –

January -- --

Wed 13 Feb

(2:00pm)

RBNZ Monetary Policy

Statement Dovish tilt

Weaker growth and growing global risks warrant a more

dovish stance.

Wed 13 Feb

(3:00pm)

RBNZ Inflation Expectations

– Q1 Overshadowed

Will be overshadowed by the MPS press conference; we

expect expectations to remain anchored.

Thu 14 Feb (10:45am)

Food Price Index – January Bounce The FPI generally lifts in the month of January as December specials wash out and fruit and veg prices rise.

Fri 15 Feb

(10:00am)

BNZ-BusinessNZ

Manufacturing PMI - January New norm

The PMI has been trending broadly sideways after taking a

step down in mid-2018. We suspect this is the new norm.

Fri 15 Feb

(10:45am) Net Migration – December Gradual ease

The migration cycle is expected to continue easing gradually

as earlier arrivals continue to cycle out.

Mon 18 Feb

(10:30am)

Performance of Services

Index - January Sideways

We don’t expect upwards momentum to come calling anytime

soon. Broadly sideways should be the order of the day.

Wed 20 Feb (early am)

GlobalDairyTrade auction Hopeful We’re hopeful prices will continue to recover, but question marks have accumulated over the global demand backdrop.

Wed 20 Feb

(10:45am) Producer Price Index – Q4 Oil slip

Fuel costs contributed to higher input prices in Q3. This

should drag in Q4. Output prices are also poised to recoil.

Fri 22 Feb

(10:45am)

Electronic Card Transactions

– February Flip a coin

ECT hasn’t been a great indicator of consumption or retail

spending recently. We are inclined to discount it.

Mon 25 Feb

(10:45am) Retail Trade Survey – Q4 Bounce A small rebound is on the cards after last month’s flat result.

Wed 27 Feb

(10:45am)

Overseas Merchandise Trade

– January Solid

Solid agricultural production should keep exports moving in

the right direction.

Thu 28 Feb

(1:00pm)

ANZ Business Outlook –

February -- --

Fri 1 Mar

(10:00am)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer

Confidence – February -- --

Fri 1 Mar

(10:45am) Building Consents – January Good start?

We’ll see whether construction activity had a good start to

the year, after struggling to push higher recently.

On balance Data watch Domestic and global data has softened and we see a

case for OCR cuts in time.

Key forecasts and rates


Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20

GDP (% qoq) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

GDP (% yoy) 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6

CPI (% qoq) 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2

CPI (% yoy) 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8

LCI Wages (% qoq) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5

LCI Wages (% yoy) 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2

Employment (% qoq) 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Employment (% yoy) 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Unemployment Rate

(% sa) 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

Current Account

(% GDP) -3.6 -3.6 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9

Terms of Trade (% qoq) -0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1

Terms of Trade (% yoy) -0.5 -1.5 0.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19

Retail ECT (% mom) -2.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.0 -0.4 -2.3 --

Retail ECT (% yoy) 1.4 4.2 4.9 3.8 6.3 5.7 6.2 4.6 0.6 --

Credit Card Billings (% mom)

0.6 -1.5 2.3 -1.5 3.1 0.8 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 --

Credit Card Billings

(% yoy) 6.9 3.7 5.9 3.3 7.8 7.9 6.4 6.1 4.5 --

Car Registrations

(% mom) -1.1 13.8 -6.3 0.2 1.9 -4.5 4.2 -8.1 -3.9 3.9

Car Registrations

(% yoy) -9.0 -0.6 -4.9 -0.7 -4.7 -10.8 -5.4 -17.9 -15.8 -12.1

Building Consents

(% mom) -3.9 6.7 -7.9 -9.7 7.1 -1.3 1.5 -1.9 5.1 --

Building Consents (% yoy)

14.9 23.0 11.7 -5.7 -2.8 -3.0 8.4 -3.5 12.0 --

REINZ House Price Index

(% yoy) 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.1 3.3 --

Household Lending Growth (% mom)

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 --

Household Lending

Growth (% yoy) 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 --

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conf.

120.5 121.0 120.0 118.4 117.6 117.6 115.4 118.6 121.9 121.7

ANZ Business Confidence -23.4 -27.2 -39.0 -44.9 -50.3 -38.3 -37.1 -37.1 -24.1 --

ANZ Own Activity Outlook 17.8 13.6 9.4 3.8 3.8 7.8 7.4 7.6 13.6 --

Trade Balance ($m) 200 199 -285 -203 -1567 -1580 -1307 -955 264 --

Trade Bal ($m ann) 58675 58982 59696 60708 61387 62263 63001 63029 63352 --

ANZ World Comm. Price

Index (% mom) 1.0 1.5 -0.9 -3.3 -1.1 -2.4 -2.4 -0.5 -0.2 2.1

ANZ World Comm. Price

Index (% yoy) 7.1 5.4 2.3 -0.2 -0.5 -3.6 -5.6 -5.1 -3.4 -2.1

Net Migration (sa) 3740 4280 3410 3820 3390 3170 3500 2480 -- --

Net Migration (ann) 48111 48009 46619 46086 45556 45277 45209 43416 -- --

ANZ Heavy Traffic Index

(% mom) -0.7 3.6 0.1 -0.8 1.2 -3.1 4.5 -2.3 -4.1 --

ANZ Light Traffic Index (% mom)

-0.5 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 -1.0 0.4 0.1 -1.9 --

Figures in bold are forecasts. mom: Month-on-Month; qoq: Quarter-on-Quarter; yoy: Year-on-Year

Key forecasts and rates


Actual Forecast (end month)

FX rates Dec-18 Jan-19 Today Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

NZD/USD 0.671 0.691 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.63

NZD/AUD 0.951 0.950 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.87

NZD/EUR 0.586 0.602 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.50 0.50

NZD/JPY 73.85 75.00 73.96 70.4 67.0 62.2 61.0 58.6 58.9 59.4

NZD/GBP 0.527 0.526 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.47

NZ$ TWI 71.5 72.8 73.4 69.7 67.9 65.2 64.2 62.9 63.1 63.2

Interest rates Dec-18 Jan-19 Today Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

NZ OCR 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00

NZ 90 day bill 1.97 1.93 1.91 1.93 1.93 1.85 1.60 1.18 1.18 1.18

NZ 10-yr bond 2.37 2.26 2.10 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.55 2.65

US Fed funds 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

US 3-mth 2.81 2.74 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10

AU Cash Rate 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75

AU 3-mth 2.09 2.07 2.01 2.05 2.00 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

8-Jan 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb

Official Cash Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

90 day bank bill 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91

NZGB 05/21 1.70 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.64 1.60

NZGB 04/23 1.83 1.72 1.74 1.74 1.66 1.61

NZGB 04/27 2.21 2.01 2.04 2.04 1.96 1.92

NZGB 04/33 2.56 2.36 2.38 2.38 2.32 2.27

2 year swap 1.95 1.92 1.91 1.92 1.82 1.80

5 year swap 2.19 2.10 2.10 2.10 1.98 1.95

RBNZ TWI 73.37 74.46 74.36 74.36 73.50 73.23

NZD/USD 0.6734 0.6890 0.6891 0.6853 0.6759 0.6740

NZD/AUD 0.9452 0.9532 0.9512 0.9602 0.9510 0.9514

NZD/JPY 73.22 75.70 75.76 75.16 74.26 73.99

NZD/GBP 0.5278 0.5278 0.5295 0.5286 0.5240 0.5210

NZD/EUR 0.5884 0.6019 0.6035 0.6013 0.5962 0.5954

AUD/USD 0.7125 0.7228 0.7245 0.7137 0.7107 0.7088

EUR/USD 1.1446 1.1447 1.1417 1.1397 1.1337 1.1323

USD/JPY 108.72 109.88 109.94 109.67 109.86 109.73

GBP/USD 1.2758 1.3052 1.3013 1.2964 1.2899 1.2944

Oil (US$/bbl) 49.78 54.56 53.66 54.01 52.64 52.72

Gold (US$/oz) 1283.60 1310.75 1313.74 1313.45 1306.79 1316.61

NZX 50 8821 8979 9074 9074 9134 9177

Baltic Dry Freight Index 1262 634 629 629 610 601

NZX WMP Futures (US$/t) 2695 2800 2800 2800 3060 3050

Important notice


This document is intended for ANZ’s institutional, professional or wholesale clients, and not for individuals or retail persons. It should not be forwarded, copied or distributed. The information in this document is general in nature, and does not constitute personal financial product advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

This document may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this document must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions.

Disclaimer for all jurisdictions: This document is prepared and distributed in your country/region by either: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ABN11 005 357 522) (ANZ); or its relevant subsidiary or branch (each, an Affiliate), as appropriate or as set out below.

This document is distributed on the basis that it is only for the information of the specified recipient or permitted user of the relevant website (recipients).

This document is solely for informational purposes and nothing contained within is intended to be an invitation, solicitation or offer by ANZ to sell, or buy, receive or provide any product or service, or to participate in a particular trading strategy.

Distribution of this document to you is only as may be permissible by the laws of your jurisdiction, and is not directed to or intended for distribution or use by recipients resident or located in jurisdictions where its use or distribution would be contrary to those laws or regulations, or in jurisdictions where ANZ would be subject to additional licensing or registration requirements. Further, the products and services mentioned in this document may not be available in all countries.

ANZ in no way provides any financial, legal, taxation or investment advice to you in connection with any product or service discussed in this document. Before making any investment decision, recipients should seek independent financial, legal, tax and other relevant advice having regard to their particular circumstances.

Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this document and the information contained within is believed to be accurate, ANZ does not represent or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information Further, ANZ does not accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect the accuracy of the information in this document.

Preparation of this document and the opinions expressed in it may involve material elements of subjective judgement and analysis. Unless specifically stated otherwise: they are current on the date of this document and are subject to change without notice; and, all price information is indicative only. Any opinions expressed in this document are subject to change at any time without notice.

ANZ does not guarantee the performance of any product mentioned in this document. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. The products and services described in this document may not be suitable for all investors, and transacting in these products or services may be considered risky.

ANZ expressly disclaims any responsibility and shall not be liable for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (Liability) arising directly or indirectly and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise out of or in connection with this document to the extent permissible under relevant law. Please note, the contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory body or authority in any jurisdiction.

ANZ and its Affiliates may have an interest in the subject matter of this document. They may receive fees from customers for dealing in the products or services described in this document, and their staff and introducers of business may share in such fees or remuneration that may be influenced by total sales, at all times received and/or apportioned in accordance with local regulatory requirements. Further, they or their customers may have or have had interests or long or short positions in the products or services described in this document, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent, as well as act (or have acted) as a market maker in such products. This document is published in accordance with ANZ’s policies on conflicts of interest and ANZ maintains appropriate information barriers to control the flow of information between businesses within it and its Affiliates.

Your ANZ point of contact can assist with any questions about this document including for further information on these disclosures of interest.

Country/region specific information: Unless stated otherwise, this document is distributed by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ).

Australia. ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527. For a copy of ANZ's Financial Services Guide please or request from your ANZ point of contact. If trading strategies or recommendations are included in this document, they are solely for the information of ‘wholesale clients’ (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 Cth).

Brazil, Brunei, India, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Switzerland, Taiwan. This document is distributed in each of these jurisdictions by ANZ on a cross-border basis.

Cambodia. This document is distributed in Cambodia by ANZ Royal Bank (Cambodia) Limited (ANZ Royal Bank). The recipient acknowledges that although ANZ Royal Bank is a subsidiary of ANZ, it is a separate entity to ANZ and the obligations of ANZ Royal Bank do not constitute deposits or other liabilities of ANZ and ANZ is not required to meet the obligations of ANZ Royal Bank.

European Economic Area (EEA): United Kingdom. ANZ is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA. Details about the extent of our regulation by the PRA are available from us on request. This document is distributed in the United Kingdom by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ANZ solely for the information of persons who would come within the FCA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client”. It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FCA definition of “retail client”. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and the FCA. ANZ is authorised in the United Kingdom by the PRA and is subject to regulation by the FCA and limited regulation by the PRA. Details about the extent of our regulation by the PRA are available from us on request.

Fiji. For Fiji regulatory purposes, this document and any views and recommendations are not to be deemed as investment advice. Fiji investors must seek licensed professional advice should they wish to make any investment in relation to this document.

Hong Kong. This publication is issued or distributed in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong branch of ANZ, which is registered at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) regulated activities. The contents of this publication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

India. If this document is received in India, only you (the specified recipient) may print it provided that before doing so, you specify on it your name and place of printing.

Important notice


Myanmar. This publication is intended to be general and part of ANZ’s customer service and marketing activities when implementing its functions as a licensed bank. This publication is not Securities Investment Advice (as that term is defined in the Myanmar Securities Transaction Law 2013).

New Zealand. This document is intended to be of a general nature, does not take into account your financial situation or goals, and is not a personalised adviser service under the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA).

Oman. ANZ neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office in Oman and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently ANZ is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Capital Market Authority. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 4/74) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). ANZ does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which ANZ sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from ANZ and the recipient understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the CMA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. ANZ does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice.

People’s Republic of China (PRC). This document may be distributed by either ANZ or Australia and New Zealand Bank (China) Company Limited (ANZ China). Recipients must comply with all applicable laws and regulations of PRC, including any prohibitions on speculative transactions and CNY/CNH arbitrage trading. If this document is distributed by ANZ or an Affiliate (other than ANZ China), the following statement and the text below is applicable: No action has been taken by ANZ or any affiliate which would permit a public offering of any products or services of such an entity or distribution or re-distribution of this document in the PRC. Accordingly, the products and services of such entities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this document or any other document. This document may not be distributed, re-distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations. If and when the material accompanying this document relates to the products and/or services of ANZ China, the following statement and the text below is applicable: This document is distributed by ANZ China in the Mainland of the PRC.

Qatar. This document has not been, and will not be:

• lodged or registered with, or reviewed or approved by, the Qatar Central Bank (QCB), the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any other authority in the State of Qatar (Qatar); or

• authorised or licensed for distribution in Qatar,

and the information contained in this document does not, and is not intended to, constitute a public offer or other invitation in respect of securities in Qatar or the QFC. The financial products or services described in this document have not been, and will not be:

• registered with the QCB, QFC Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any other governmental authority in Qatar; or

• authorised or licensed for offering, marketing, issue or sale, directly or indirectly, in Qatar.

Accordingly, the financial products or services described in this document are not being, and will not be, offered, issued or sold in Qatar, and this document is not being, and will not be, distributed in Qatar. The offering, marketing, issue and sale of the financial products or services described in this document and distribution of this document is being made in, and is subject to the laws, regulations and rules of, jurisdictions outside of Qatar and the QFC. Recipients of this document must abide by this restriction and not distribute this document in breach of this restriction. This document is being sent/issued to a limited number of institutional and/or sophisticated investors (i) upon their request and confirmation that they understand the statements above; and (ii) on the condition that it will not be provided to any person other than the original recipient, and is not for general circulation and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose.

Singapore. This document is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of ANZ solely for the information of “accredited investors”, “expert investors” or (as the case may be) “institutional investors” (each term as defined in the Securities and Futures Act Cap. 289 of Singapore). ANZ is licensed in Singapore under the Banking Act Cap. 19 of Singapore and is exempted from holding a financial adviser’s licence under Section 23(1)(a) of the Financial Advisers Act Cap. 100 of Singapore.

United Arab Emirates (UAE). This document is distributed in the UAE or the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) (as applicable) by ANZ. This document does not, and is not intended to constitute: (a) an offer of securities anywhere in the UAE; (b) the carrying on or engagement in banking, financial and/or investment consultation business in the UAE under the rules and regulations made by the Central Bank of the UAE, the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority or the UAE Ministry of Economy; (c) an offer of securities within the meaning of the Dubai International Financial Centre Markets Law (DIFCML) No. 12 of 2004; and (d) a financial promotion, as defined under the DIFCML No. 1 of 200. ANZ DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) ANZ DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The financial products or services described in this document are only available to persons who qualify as “Professional Clients” or “Market Counterparty” in accordance with the provisions of the DFSA rules. In addition, ANZ has a representative office (ANZ Representative Office) in Abu Dhabi regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE. The ANZ Representative Office is not permitted by the Central Bank of the UAE to provide any banking services to clients in the UAE.

United States. Except where this is a FX- related document, this document is distributed in the United States by ANZ Securities, Inc. (ANZ SI) which is a member of the Financial Regulatory Authority (FINRA) (www.finra.org) and registered with the SEC. ANZSI’s address is 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, USA (Tel: +1 212 801 9160 Fax: +1 212 801 9163). ANZSI accepts responsibility for its content. Information on any securities referred to in this document may be obtained from ANZSI upon request. This document or material is intended for institutional use only – not retail. If you are an institutional customer wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to in this document you must contact ANZSI, not its affiliates. ANZSI is authorised as a broker-dealer only for institutional customers, not for US Persons (as “US person” is defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended) who are individuals. If you have registered to use this website or have otherwise received this document and are a US Person who is an individual: to avoid loss, you should cease to use this website by unsubscribing or should notify the sender and you should not act on the contents of this document in any way. Non-U.S. analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of ANZSI and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with the subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Where this is an FX-related document, it is distributed in the United States by ANZ's New York Branch, which is also located at 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, USA (Tel: +1 212 801 916 0 Fax: +1 212 801 9163).

Vietnam. This document is distributed in Vietnam by ANZ or ANZ Bank (Vietnam) Limited, a subsidiary of ANZ.

This document has been prepared by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited, Level 26, 23-29 Albert Street, Auckland 1010, New Zealand, Ph 64-9-357 4094, e-mail [email protected], http://www.anz.co.nz


Documents

ANZ Research New Zealand Weekly Focus 2.1 3.1 2 · 2020. 7. 17. · REINZ Housing Market Data – January (11-15 February). With the RBNZ’s loan-to-value ratio restrictions having